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The charts have not turned the corner yet, but they are beginning to show signs of some bottoming action. That being said, the funds will not get overly excited about a change in position until they see a change in the trend (which will need a spark which we have not yet seen). From a technical perspective, we are still well, well below our 50 and 100 day moving averages, but we have been making a good run at the 10 day (see charts below). We have a bear trendline on all commodities, and until we can settle north of 11.65 on beans, and 4.25 on corn, that trend will remain in effect.
Abiove (private analyst) has lowered Brazil's soybean crop to 153.8 mmt from 156.1 mmt forecast earlier this month because of lower yields. StoneX Brazil was down to 150.35 MMT at the start of this month and they’ll re-issue results on Friday; Conab’s official BRZ estimate was below the 150 MMT mark in early February, at 149.4 MMT. The USDA only trimmed their number from 157 to 156 MMT in the February S&D, so presumably they’ll have more work to do on that next Friday in the USDA report.
Friday’s January USDA soybean crush is expected to come in at 196.6 million bushels, down from December’s 204.3 mbu single-month record but still above 191.1 mbu in January 2023, and ahead of the Jan record from 2021 of 196.5 mbu.
Today's EIA report showed that commercial crude oil stocks rose 4.2 million barrels to 447.2 million. Ethanol stocks increased 0.5 million to 26 million. Ethanol production decreased 6 thousand barrels per day to 1,365 thousand.
Funds were mixed today with corn and beans buyers and wheat a seller.
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