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Today was ugly across the board, but the ugliest was that front-month corn futures slipped below $4/bu for the first time since Nov. 4, 2020. This depression of price has happened relatively fast, too. Last time front-month was at each level...
$5 - Oct. 20, 2023
$6 - July 14, 2023
$7 - Oct. 31, 2022
Since last Friday, corn is down 16 3/4 cents, soybeans are down 39 1/4 cents, and wheat is up 13 cents. Wheat had a 3 day stretch of positive closes, but was rudely interrupted today despite starting out the day's session higher.
Funds were thought to have been all sells today with corn expected to have sold 5,000 contracts (short 344,000), soybeans to have sold 6,000 contracts (short 146,000, and wheat to have sold 5,000 contracts (short 75,000). On Tuesday, funds were close to expectations with corn 18,000 shorter, soybeans 2,000 longer, and wheat 4,000 shorter.
Export sales were released today, and to sum it up...Soybean export sales are…a problem. Declining rapidly in recent weeks and totaling just 2.1 million bushels this week, they were a marketing year low. Sales to China are at just 73% of last year’s pace with shipments there at 70% of LY, as the world’s leading importer sources all the Brazilian supplies they can get their hands on. The USDA had to cut their 2023/24 soybean export estimate by 35 mln bu this month and even that is looking optimistic at this point. That was just another log on a bearish fire this morning as spec funds push the grains to new lows, yet to find the bottom. Corn and wheat export sales were nothing to write home about either. Not the best way to close off a short-week.
Ukraine has exported almost 4.3 MMT of grain so far this month, exceeding the 3.8 MMT shipped over the same period a year earlier, agriculture ministry data showed.
We look forward to seeing you all on Tuesday at our grower meeting! Registration is at 9:30am, and the meeting will run from 10-3. Speakers will be from both agronomy and grain, and our staff will be around to answer any questions you may have! More information can be found on our website!
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