Quotes of the Day:

"If we all did the things we are capable of doing, we would literally astound ourselves." 

- Thomas A. Edison

"Whenever the world throws rose petals at you, which thrill and seduce the ego, beware." 

- Anne Lamott\

"There is only one success -- to be able to spend your life in your own way." 

- Christopher Morley

1. Surrounded and low on ammo, the elite troops out to spoil Putin’s New Year

2. Will America fail the Peter Singer test in Ukraine?

3. COP28: UN says staggering $7 trillion spent every year on investments that fuel climate change

4. Israel-Hamas war: Terrorists lose contact with Gaza leaders, surrender

5. Israel–Hamas War (Iran) Update, December 9, 2023

6. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 9, 2023

7. Opinion | The GOP’s abandonment of Ukraine makes me ashamed to be an American by Max Boot

8. Opinion: Why university presidents are under fire | CNN

9. Out of the hills: The war is coming to Myanmar

10. Israel Is Losing this War

11. How a factory city in Wisconsin fed military-grade weapons to a Mexican cartel

12. Is Ukraine really losing?

13. UN rights chief slammed for not acknowledging Uyghurs on genocide convention anniversary

14.  Gaza in chaos as Palestinian anger against Hamas grows

15. How An AC/DC Hit Helped To Topple A Dictatorship

16. Biden to host Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at White House Tuesday

17. Battles rage across Gaza as Israel indicates it's willing to fight for months or more to beat Hamas

18. ‘You Cannot Unsee the Evil’: A Report on the Graphic Hamas Terror Video, From Combat Veteran John Spencer

1. Surrounded and low on ammo, the elite troops out to spoil Putin’s New Year

The next article will talk about the "Peter Singer test" and ask if we are violating it by supporting Ukraine.

DISPATCH FROM UKRAINE

Surrounded and low on ammo, the elite troops out to spoil Putin’s New Year

One of Ukraine’s finest brigades has been sent to defend the key city of Avdiivka. Without more gear their chances are dwindling, they tell Maxim Tucker

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/surrounded-and-low-on-ammo-the-elite-troops-out-to-spoil-putins-new-year-mdtqkspvj?utm

Backed by a western-supplied Bradley M1, soldiers from the 47th Brigade appeal for support outside Avdiivka

Maxim Tucker

, Ocheretyne

Friday December 08 2023, 3.45pm, The Times

Starved of ammunition, the gunners of Ukraine’s 47th Brigade were not able to hit the Russian convoy before it was upon their infantry on Avdiivka’s northern flank.

Five armoured vehicles rolled into the village of Stepove, guns firing, allowing about 40 Russian soldiers to run for cover in the houses around Ukrainian positions. A Bradley fighting vehicle was deployed towards the Russians. American armour was to be put to the test against Russian.

This fierce battle was part of a desperate action to save Avdiivka, in the east of the country, from imminent collapse and prevent a victory for President Putin in time for the launch of his election campaign and New Year festivities.

The 47th is one of Ukraine’s best-equipped brigades. Outfitted with German Leopard 2 tanks and American Bradley M1 fighting vehicles to lead the summer counteroffensive, it was tasked with breaking heavily fortified positions in a run to the Black Sea, but was withdrawn in October after making only six miles, mauled by Russian bombing, minefields and Lancet drones.

“With great equipment comes great responsibilities,” said Sergeant Danylo “Sausage”, 23, who is part of a 2nd Battalion, 47th Brigade air reconnaissance team. He shows me a live feed of the battle from four of his drones.

The war in Ukraine is at a critical moment. The fall of Avdiivka would mean Ukrainian forces fall back to the reservoirs of Karlivka and the heights at Ocheretyne. Karlivka supplies water to the remaining Ukrainian-held territory in the Donbas, with any battle there severely disrupting its flow. Seizing the heights at Ocheretyne, two miles away, would allow the Russians to begin razing Myrnohrad, a city of 50,000.

Unless the West provides brigades like the 47th with ammunition, they will be unable to stop Putin’s troops. The Russians could run on to Dnipro, with a population of one million, and sweep north towards Kyiv, cutting off Ukraine’s army in the Donbas.

Defending Avdiivka is seen as a tribute to thousands of soldiers who have died there

KOSTYA LIBEROV/LIBKOS/GETTY

Holding Avdiivka is also key to maintaining morale. Its defence is a tribute to the thousands of soldiers who have died there since Russia’s hybrid invasion of 2014. And the Ukrainian positions here are a dagger at the throat of the occupied city of Donetsk, which is central to any future Ukrainian counteroffensive to recover the Donbas region.

The commitment of one of Ukraine’s best brigades is testament to the importance of this battle, where Ukrainian troops cling on despite almost complete encirclement, their supply and medical evacuation vehicles running through heavy artillery fire for the last 14 miles of their route.

Despite heavy losses over the summer, the men of the 47th are motivated and ready to fight. Yet partisan politics in Washington is delaying their essential supplies and the EU’s failure to meet its promise to deliver a million artillery rounds have forced Ukrainian troops to ration their ammunition, with catastrophic consequences on the battlefield.

“It’s a shitty situation,” Sausage said. The shell shortage forces soldiers like Sergeant Taras “Fizruk”, a 31-year-old mortar gunner, also from the 2nd Battalion, to make impossible life and death decisions.

“We had ten times more ammunition over summer, and better quality,” he said. “American rounds come in batches of almost identical weights, which makes it easier to correct fire, with very few duds. Now we have shells from all over the world with different qualities and we only get 15 for three days. Last week we got a batch full of duds.”

Ukrainian soldiers from the 47th brigade appeal for western support

Instead of firing on Russians as soon as they come within range, they have to wait to be sure they are heading for their positions, and only hit large groups.

“We should be controlling our sector from 4km away, so we can kill a few hundred Russian soldiers before they get to our infantry and we only take a few wounded,” he said. “But without ammunition we can’t. When it’s two or three soldiers I’m not shooting any more, only when it’s a critical situation, say ten guys close to our infantry, we will work. If our rounds aren’t the same weight, the next round will fly two hundred metres past the Russians. And then it’s too late.”

Rather than watch helplessly as smaller groups encroach on their infantry, his men sometimes resort to flying their unarmed drones at enemy troops, who temporarily scatter fearing they are about to have a grenade dropped on them.

The brigade is using drones to temporarily distract and scare Russian soldiers

Both men say the brigade is not getting enough equipment. Anticipating their western allies becoming distracted by the crisis in the Middle East, they fundraised for those items they can buy, but much of it is held up at the border by a blockade of Polish truckers, disgruntled that Ukrainian drivers are undercutting their wages in Europe.

For now, Ukraine is on the defensive. The railroad which runs through the village of Stepove marks the northern flank of Avdiivka’s last line of defence. The village holds, but it is bloody, gruelling work. The Russians seem able to absorb an endless amount of casualties, spurred on by fear of their own commanders. Ukrainian defenders are suffering too. American M113 armoured personnel carriers on the road from Avdiivka to Ocheretyne pull out a steady stream of casualties.

Just as during the counteroffensive in the south, Russian air superiority and the delay in the delivery of F16 jets capable of standing off Russian bombers means that Avdiivka is in ruins, hit daily by 500kg Russian KAB bombs. “Ten days ago 32 KABs hit the city in a single day,” Vitaliy Barabash, head of the Avdiivka City Military Administration, said.

Ukrainian soldiers fight in dreadful conditions

Barabash grew up in a village near Avdiivka, which had a population of 32,000 before the invasion. Now he is presiding over the hasty evacuation of its remaining 1,300 inhabitants.

“It’s a sad thing to see the city I’ve known since childhood and the village where I was born being erased. I’ve been head of the city since 2020 and we made a lot of improvements in those two years. It’s all being wiped out,” he said.

“The town changes not by the day, but by the hour. In the morning you drive past a damaged building, then the bombs fall and when you leave in the evening, it’s gone.”

Additional reporting by Oleksii Savchenko

2. Will America fail the Peter Singer test in Ukraine?

A very provocative essay that will be met with condemnation by some while understood by many others.

Will America fail the Peter Singer test in Ukraine?

BY ALEXANDER J. MOTYL, OPINION CONTRIBUTOR - 12/09/23 1:00 PM ET

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4350608-will-america-fail-the-peter-singer-test-in-ukraine/?utm

Are the MAGA Republicans who want to cut off U.S. aid to Ukraine acting ethically? To put the matter bluntly, are they supporting the war crimes Russia is committing in Ukraine or not?

The questions are disturbing, even incendiary, especially as they force us — and the MAGA Republicans — to ask whether we are as guilty as the Russians in supporting a leader, Vladimir Putin, and a war that is intentionally destroying a nation.

The philosopher Peter Singer has suggested an intriguing way of addressing this kind of question in his “drowning child” thought experiment. Here’s the way Singer put it:

“To challenge my students to think about the ethics of what we owe to people in need, I ask them to imagine that their route to the university takes them past a shallow pond. One morning, I say to them, you notice a child has fallen in and appears to be drowning. To wade in and pull the child out would be easy but it will mean that you get your clothes wet and muddy, and by the time you go home and change you will have missed your first class. I then ask the students: do you have any obligation to rescue the child? Unanimously, the students say they do. The importance of saving a child so far outweighs the cost of getting one’s clothes muddy and missing a class, that they refuse to consider it any kind of excuse for not saving the child.”

Back in February 2022, when Putin’s Russia launched its all-out war, Ukraine was arguably the drowning child and we were the passersby. Providing billions of dollars’ worth of military aid isn’t quite the same as muddying your clothes, but for a society as rich as America neither was it an exorbitant expense, especially as the vast majority, some 90 percent, of the money spent on Ukraine actually stayed in the United States, contributing to the American economy, providing jobs and stimulating investment.

Helping Ukraine was thus both self-interested and ethically right. That Russia had violated a raft of international laws in launching its war made assisting Ukraine easier, inasmuch as it provided the U.S. with a large number of partners equally desirous of saving the drowning child.

Here’s Singer: “Does it make a difference, I ask, that there are other people walking past the pond who would equally be able to rescue the child but are not doing so? No, the students reply, the fact that others are not doing what they ought to do is no reason why I should not do what I ought to do.” Unlike the other people walking past the pond, much of the international community joined in the effort to save Ukraine.

Fast forward to December 2023 and the distinct possibility that the Republican threat to cut aid to Ukraine could become reality. The situation today would be akin to the following scenario.

Like the good passerby, the United States saved the child in 2022. Almost two years later, America is holding the child that it saved and is walking past the pond. Should it continue carrying the child? After all, the child has put on some weight, it cries, it distracts us from our work. Or should it ease the burden by placing the child back into the pond, perhaps face up, in the hope that it won’t turn over and drown?

MAGA Republicans, like their mentor Donald Trump, are saying that, yes, sorry, Ukraine, you’ve become too much of a burden and, like it or not, we need to get rid of you. Two years ago, we saved you. But we can’t keep you alive forever. We won’t kill you, but, like the ancient Greeks, we’ll leave you where we found you and let the gods decide whether you’ll live or die.

Indifference to the fate of the child would have been unethical two years ago. Today it’s infinitely more criminal, as it involves the conscious choice to abandon a healthy child.

There’s no way to avoid the sad conclusion that MAGA Republicans are effectively, perhaps even consciously and willfully, supporting Ukraine’s destruction for the sake of ridding themselves of a minor inconvenience. And since Putin’s agenda in Ukraine is genocide and since the U.S. has been the key obstacle to his being able to achieve that goal, the GOP position is effectively, and tragically, supportive of genocide.

Alas, that makes MAGA Republicans as guilty of and responsible for Putin’s crimes as the overwhelmingly large number of Russians who consciously choose Ukraine’s destruction over Ukraine’s survival.

Alexander J. Motyl is a professor of political science at Rutgers University-Newark. A specialist on Ukraine, Russia and the USSR, and on nationalism, revolutions, empires and theory, he is the author of 10 books of nonfiction, as well as “Imperial Ends: The Decay, Collapse, and Revival of Empires” and “Why Empires Reemerge: Imperial Collapse and Imperial Revival in Comparative Perspective.”

3. COP28: UN says staggering $7 trillion spent every year on investments that fuel climate change

Hmmm... Seems like a pretty sensational number.  But what is the context? And what if we did not make those investments? What would happen to the global economy and thus what would happen to people around the world?

COP28: UN says staggering $7 trillion spent every year on investments that fuel climate change

news.un.org · December 9, 2023

The report from the UN’s environmental wing, UNEP, also revealed that despite decades of calls for ending finance flows towards sectors that harm some of humanity’s most valuable assets, those investments currently account for a whopping 7 percent of global GDP.

Saturday’s report launch comes as negotiations on the conference’s outcome text are shifting into high gear – COP28 is scheduled to close on Tuesday – and against the backdrop of the largest on-site action yet for climate justice. Calls for ending the world’s dependence on fossil fuels and demanding reparations for 'loss and damage' can be heard ringing out at Dubai’s iconic Expo City venue.

Tweet URL

UNEP

This year’s State of Finance for Nature report is the first such survey to focus on what is known as “nature-negative finance flows” and underscores the urgency to address the interconnected crises of climate change, biodiversity loss, and land degradation.

The report, launched to coincide with a day set aside at the latest UN climate conference for discussions on nature and land use, also highlighted the fact that these investments dwarfed the annual amount being invested in nature-based solutions, which totaled roughly $200 billion last year.

A staggering $5 billion of these nature-negative finance flows come from the private sector, which is 140 times larger than private investments in nature-based solutions, and almost half of that stems from only 5 industries: construction, electric utilities, real estate, oil and gas, and food and tobacco.

‘Greening finance’

One of UNEP’s partners contributing to the report is Global Canopy, a data-driven non-profit that targets market drivers that negatively impact nature. It’s Executive Director, Niki Mardas, told UN News that there is a group of companies or financial institutions who may be making nature-positive investments “and making a big noise about that, but aren't even clear on their exposure to nature-negative [investments], particularly when it's down their supply chains.”

He emphasized that, while these companies must continue to make positive investments, they also need to do the hard and complex work of understanding how they are driving the problem.

They must start addressing that “not by getting out and not by divesting, but by engaging companies in their portfolios, by engaging companies in their supply chains so that they change their operations and their behaviour”.

Mr. Mardas gave the example of countering deforestation, which is “at the heart” of any effort to achieve net-zero, yet only 20 per cent of the over 700 financial institutions that made high profile net-zero commitments as part of the Glasgow Financial Alliance “have taken any action at all on deforestation.”

Tweet URL

UNFCCC

“The single biggest action we can take for nature, climate and people is to green finance. We need to finance green, but we also need to green that $7 trillion of finance. Otherwise, we'll always be stuck in this loop,” he added.

Turning the tide

At a press conference in Dubai, the head of UNEP’s Nature for Climate Branch, Mirey Atallah, said the report demonstrates that the climate crisis is still outpacing efforts to contain it.

She said finance is “the great enabler, and without money flowing in the right direction, we cannot achieve the targets we have set” at the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio to address the interconnected challenges of climate change, desertification and biodiversity loss.

While the report may provide very sobering conclusions, Ms. Atallah said UNEP wants to use the data to show that the money being used to harm nature can and must be diverted to have a positive impact and stressed that COP28 must be the turning point.

Speaking to UN News, the UNEP official said the chronic underfunding of nature-based solutions is not due to the lack of funds, “it’s just that the money is going in the wrong direction”.

She said convincing private companies to make the right investments requires putting in place the necessary legal frameworks to support directing funds towards nature-positive solutions.

Ms. Atallah noted that some private financial institutions have already started taking climate effects into account when approached for loans, which can help “turn the tide of investments”.

Want to know more? Check out our special events page, where you can find all our coverage of the COP28 climate conference, including stories and videos, explainers and our newsletter.

news.un.org · December 9, 2023

4. Israel-Hamas war: Terrorists lose contact with Gaza leaders, surrender

Separating the low level terrorists from their leadership is a fundamental and necessary tactic.

Israel-Hamas war: Terrorists lose contact with Gaza leaders, surrender

Jerusalem Post

Dozens of Hamas terrorists lost contact with the terror group's leadership, leaving them with no option but to lay down their weapons and surrender to Israeli forces in the Gaza Strip, Army Radio reported on Sunday morning.

After images of stripped terrorists in Jabalya and Khan Yunis circulated on social media, reports emerged that the IDF is "identifying changes in Hamas leadership's conduct."

A security source told Army Radio that Hamas's senior leaders, thought to have fled to Khan Yunis in Gaza's south, "prefer their personal survival over the survival of Hamas's command and control operations."

Hamas battalions 'capitulated' in Gaza fighting, US-based institute says

Earlier on Sunday, the US-based Institute for the Study of War assessed in an X thread that at least seven Hamas battalions have already capitulated in fighting with the IDF.

Israeli forces continued clearing operations in Khan Younis as Palestinian militias attempt to resist Israeli advances. The al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of #Hamas—claimed several attacks on Israeli forces and vehicles in the southern #Gaza Strip.(1/6) pic.twitter.com/2uvMJHD4pS

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) December 10, 2023

In addition, six battalions are "close to collapse," the Institute continued. According to the Insitute, the collapse of Hamas's Gaza City and northern brigades could signal the fall of the northern Strip to Israeli forces.

On Friday, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told IDF soldiers that he "sees the signs indicating a breakdown is beginning inside Gaza."

AdvertisementIDF soldiers operate across the Gaza Strip on December 10, 2023 (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON'S UNIT)

IDF strikes mosque in south, continues targeting tunnels in Gaza

The IDF struck over 250 terror targets in ground, aerial and naval operations across the Strip over the past 24 hours, the IDF said on Sunday morning.

Israeli forces carried out a raid on a southern Gaza mosque after Israeli Air Force fighter jets struck a Hamas military communications site located near the mosque.

The Israeli militayr also continued to strike underground tunnel shafts in Khan Yunis.

Jerusalem Post

Jerusalem Post

Dozens of Hamas terrorists lost contact with the terror group's leadership, leaving them with no option but to lay down their weapons and surrender to Israeli forces in the Gaza Strip, Army Radio reported on Sunday morning.

After images of stripped terrorists in Jabalya and Khan Yunis circulated on social media, reports emerged that the IDF is "identifying changes in Hamas leadership's conduct."

A security source told Army Radio that Hamas's senior leaders, thought to have fled to Khan Yunis in Gaza's south, "prefer their personal survival over the survival of Hamas's command and control operations."

Hamas battalions 'capitulated' in Gaza fighting, US-based institute says

Earlier on Sunday, the US-based Institute for the Study of War assessed in an X thread that at least seven Hamas battalions have already capitulated in fighting with the IDF.

Israeli forces continued clearing operations in Khan Younis as Palestinian militias attempt to resist Israeli advances. The al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of #Hamas—claimed several attacks on Israeli forces and vehicles in the southern #Gaza Strip.(1/6) pic.twitter.com/2uvMJHD4pS

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) December 10, 2023

In addition, six battalions are "close to collapse," the Institute continued. According to the Insitute, the collapse of Hamas's Gaza City and northern brigades could signal the fall of the northern Strip to Israeli forces.

On Friday, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told IDF soldiers that he "sees the signs indicating a breakdown is beginning inside Gaza."

AdvertisementIDF soldiers operate across the Gaza Strip on December 10, 2023 (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON'S UNIT)IDF strikes mosque in south, continues targeting tunnels in Gaza

The IDF struck over 250 terror targets in ground, aerial and naval operations across the Strip over the past 24 hours, the IDF said on Sunday morning.

Israeli forces carried out a raid on a southern Gaza mosque after Israeli Air Force fighter jets struck a Hamas military communications site located near the mosque.

The Israeli militayr also continued to strike underground tunnel shafts in Khan Yunis.

Jerusalem Post

5. Israel–Hamas War (Iran) Update, December 9, 2023

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-9-2023

Israel–Hamas War (Iran) Update, December 9, 2023

Key Takeaways:

1. Israeli forces continued clearing operations in Khan Younis as Palestinian militias attempt to resist Israeli advances. The al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of Hamas—claimed several attacks on Israeli forces and vehicles in the southern Gaza Strip.
2. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian militias in Shujaiya neighborhood and Jabalia city as Israeli forces advanced in the northern Gaza Strip. Israel reported that Hamas is stealing supplies from civilians in Shujaiya neighborhood.
3. Palestinian militia fighters are continuing their attacks against the IDF behind the Israeli forward line of advance, which is consistent with the nature of clearing operations.
4. The IDF spokesperson for Arab media posted specific evacuation orders covering areas of Khan Younis on X (Twitter).
5. Palestinian militias conducted at least five indirect fire attacks from the Gaza Strip into Israeli territory.
6. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters at least seven times in the West Bank.
7. Lebanese Hezbollah and other Iranian-backed militias conducted 16 attacks into northern Israel from Lebanon.
8. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed that it conducted 11 “operations” against US forces in Iraq and Syria on December 8. Kataib Hezbollah later stated it plans to increase the scope of its attacks on US targets in Iraq.
9. Houthi military spokesperson Brigadier General Yahya Sarea announced that the Houthis will expand their attacks on maritime traffic around the Red Sea to include all vessels traveling to Israel, regardless of their national affiliation.
10. Senior Iranian officials discussed the Israel-Hamas war with Syrian Prime Minister Hussein Arnous in Tehran.

IRAN UPDATE, DECEMBER 9, 2023

Dec 9, 2023 - ISW Press

Download the PDF

Iran Update, December 9, 2023

Ashka Jhaveri, Amin Soltani, Johanna Moore, and Nicholas Carl

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm EST

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Key Takeaways:

1. Israeli forces continued clearing operations in Khan Younis as Palestinian militias attempt to resist Israeli advances. The al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of Hamas—claimed several attacks on Israeli forces and vehicles in the southern Gaza Strip.
2. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian militias in Shujaiya neighborhood and Jabalia city as Israeli forces advanced in the northern Gaza Strip. Israel reported that Hamas is stealing supplies from civilians in Shujaiya neighborhood.
3. Palestinian militia fighters are continuing their attacks against the IDF behind the Israeli forward line of advance, which is consistent with the nature of clearing operations.
4. The IDF spokesperson for Arab media posted specific evacuation orders covering areas of Khan Younis on X (Twitter).
5. Palestinian militias conducted at least five indirect fire attacks from the Gaza Strip into Israeli territory.
6. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters at least seven times in the West Bank.
7. Lebanese Hezbollah and other Iranian-backed militias conducted 16 attacks into northern Israel from Lebanon.
8. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed that it conducted 11 “operations” against US forces in Iraq and Syria on December 8. Kataib Hezbollah later stated it plans to increase the scope of its attacks on US targets in Iraq.
9. Houthi military spokesperson Brigadier General Yahya Sarea announced that the Houthis will expand their attacks on maritime traffic around the Red Sea to include all vessels traveling to Israel, regardless of their national affiliation.
10. Senior Iranian officials discussed the Israel-Hamas war with Syrian Prime Minister Hussein Arnous in Tehran.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.

Israeli forces continued clearing operations in Khan Younis as Palestinian militias attempt to resist Israeli advances. Israeli forces located several tunnel shafts and a Hamas military headquarters as they advanced in Khan Younis.[1] The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) engaged three Palestinian fighters as they emerged from a tunnel in central Khan Younis and fired a rocket-propelled grenade (RPG).[2] Hamas maintains an extensive tunnel system across the Gaza Strip, which Israeli forces have destroyed as they have advanced. Israeli forces also raided a mosque from which Hamas fighters were operating. The IDF said the Hamas fighters detonated an IED near Israeli forces.[3]

The al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of Hamas—claimed several attacks on Israeli forces and vehicles in the southern Gaza Strip on December 9. The militia fighters primarily used RPGs, tandem charge anti-tank rockets, IEDs, and small arms to engage Israeli forces and vehicles.[4] The al Quds Brigades—the militant wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—claimed to target nine military vehicles, two armored personnel carriers, and a bulldozer across the entire Gaza Strip, including around Deir al Balah and Khan Younis.[5] The al Quds Brigades also claimed to trap Israeli forces in a building and then fire RPGs at them.[6]

Palestinian militias continued conducting mortar and rocket attacks on Israeli forces in the southern Gaza Strip. The al Quds Brigades fired mortars and rockets at Israeli forces in Khan Younis city and along the Israeli forward line of advance in eastern Khan Younis.[7] The al Qassem Brigades separately claimed three successive mortar attacks on Israeli forces.[8]

Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian militias in Shujaiya neighborhood and Jabalia city as Israeli forces advanced in the northern Gaza Strip.

• Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian militias near a school in Shujaiya neighborhood of Gaza city.[9] The forces uncovered small arms, grenades, and ammunition inside the classrooms, which is consistent with the IDF’s repeated reports that Hamas uses civilian infrastructure for military activity.[10] The al Quds Brigades claimed to use an explosively formed penetrator (EFP) to destroy an IDF tank in Shujaiya.[11] Hamas and other Palestinian militias have increasingly used EFPs, which are particularly lethal improvised explosive devices designed to penetrate armored vehicles, since the humanitarian pause ended on December 1.[12] The use of EFPs is part of a larger shift in which Hamas and PIJ are using increasingly sophisticated tactics against Israeli forces in the Gaza Strip.[13] The al Quds Brigades separately claimed to target three tanks with tandem-charged anti-tank rockets in the same neighborhood.[14] The al Qassem brigades claimed that it conducted two house-borne improvised explosive device (HBIED) attacks targeting Israeli forces southwest of Shujaiya in Zaytoun neighborhood of Gaza city.[15] The Palestinian militia attacks are consistent with Israeli media reporting that Hamas members have not fled and are fighting fiercely in Shujaiya neighborhood.[16]
• Israeli forces raided a series of buildings in Jabalia containing Hamas fighters and weapons and advanced to al Sheikh Radwan Pool southwest of Jabalia city.[17] The Israeli forces called in a drone strike to support their maneuvers in the city.[18] The al Quds Brigades and al Qassem Brigades claimed various attacks using mortars, RPGs, and anti-tank munitions against Israeli forces west of Jabalia.[19] The Abu Ali Mustafa Brigades—the militant wing of Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP)—claimed that its fighters clashed with Israeli forces on the outskirts of the Jabalia refugee camp.[20]

An IDF spokesperson reported on December 9 that Palestinian fighters in Shujaiya and Jabalia surrendered to the IDF and handed over their weapons and equipment.[21] Israeli media aired footage of several Palestinian men surrendering in front of Israeli forces.[22] The IDF spokesperson accused the leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, Yahya Sinwar, of being out of touch with the reality of the situation in the field.[23]

Israel reported that Hamas is stealing supplies from civilians in Shujaiya neighborhood. The IDF spokesperson for Arab media published drone footage of Hamas personnel beating residents and stealing food and humanitarian supplies in the neighborhood.[24]

Palestinian militia fighters are continuing their attacks against the IDF behind the Israeli forward line of advance, which is consistent with the nature of clearing operations. Palestinian militia fighters fired at Israeli forces from civilian infrastructure in Beit Hanoun.[25] The al Quds Brigades claimed to fire RPGs at two military vehicles in Beit Hanoun on December 9.[26] Fighting behind the Israeli forward line of advance is consistent with the doctrinal definition of "clear,” which is a tactical task that "requires the commander to remove all enemy forces and eliminate organized resistance within an assigned area.”

The IDF Arabic-language spokesperson posted evacuation orders covering specific areas in Khan Younis on X (Twitter) at 08:57 EST on December 9. The orders highlight specific blocks and neighborhoods in al Katiba, al Mahatta, and the city center of Khan Younis.[27] The evacuation notices called for civilians to go to “known shelters” west of Khan Younis.[28] The IDF previously published a map covering the same areas in Khan Younis on December 4.[29]

Palestinian militias conducted at least five indirect fire attacks from the Gaza Strip into Israeli territory. The al Quds Brigades claimed on December 8 to fire rockets at Israeli towns in southern Israel without specifying the locations.[30] The al Qassem Brigades conducted three rocket attacks into southern Israel.[31] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades—the self-proclaimed militant wing of Fatah—conducted a rocket attack on an Israeli town near the Gaza Strip.[32] The National Resistance Brigades—the militant wing of the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine—conducted one rocket attack into southern Israel.[33] An IDF spokesperson reported on December 9 that Hamas has continued to fire rockets from the Israel-declared humanitarian zone west of Khan Younis.[34] The spokesperson referenced two rocket attacks on December 8, which fell short of Israeli territory.[35]

Recorded reports of rocket attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.

Recorded reports of rocket attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters at least seven times in the West Bank on December 9. The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades claimed three simultaneous shootings on Israeli forces at the Deir Sharaf and Awarta checkpoints and Hatmar Shomron.[36] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades also clashed with Israeli forces around Jericho and Kafr Rai.[37] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades threw an IED at Israeli forces in the clashes near Jericho.[38]

A funeral was held in Tubas on December 9 for a Palestinian fighter that died in clashes with Israel forces. At least 100 individuals attended the funeral, some of whom wore Hamas and PIJ headbands and carried the militias’ flags.[39] The funeral procession chanted ”sword against sword, we are Mohammad Deif’s men,” referring to the commander of the al Qassem Brigades.[40] The presence of PIJ personnel is noteworthy in that context. The Lions’ Den—a West Bank-based militia—has similarly expressed allegiance to Mohammad Deif in recent weeks, as CTP-ISW previously reported.[41]

This map is not an exhaustive depiction of clashes and demonstrations in the West Bank.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) and other Iranian-backed militias conducted 16 attacks into northern Israel from Lebanon on December 9.[42] This rate of attacks is consistent with the daily average. LH claimed 11 of the attacks on Israeli forces.[43] Unidentified Iranian-backed fighters separately claimed five rocket attacks.[44]

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed that it conducted 11 “operations” against US forces in Iraq and Syria on December 8.[45] Western media previously reported that unspecified militants conducted nine attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria and one attack on the US Embassy in Baghdad on December 8, marking 10 attacks in total.[46] It is unclear why the Islamic Resistance in Iraq reported one ”operation” more than the number of attacks that Western media reported. It is possible that the Islamic Resistance in Iraq is using the term ”operation” more broadly than to refer to just attacks.

Kataib Hezbollah (KH) stated that it plans to increase the scope of its attacks on US targets in Iraq on December 9.[47] KH spokesperson Abu Ali al Askari congratulated the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, of which KH is a member, on its attack on the US Embassy in Baghdad on December 8 and warned that the attack marked a new standard for attacks against the United States in Iraq.[48] Askari claimed that the US Embassy in Baghdad was a base for planning military and security operations disguised as a diplomatic mission.[49] By referring to the US embassy as a military target, KH is setting informational conditions to justify attacks on the embassy. Askari’s statement comes after the Islamic Resistance in Iraq escalated significantly its attack campaign, conducting around 10 attacks on US personnel in Iraq and Syria on December 8. Askari also said that KH will consider Iraqi security forces that cooperate with the United States as accomplices to US “crimes,” suggesting that KH may attack these Iraqi security personnel as well. Unidentified militants conducted a rocket attack on the Iraqi National Security Service (NSS) headquarters on December 8, damaging the facility, according to the NSS spokesperson.[50]

Askari claimed that its attacks are meant to expel US forces from Iraq.[51] This framing is consistent with CTP-ISW's assessment that Iranian-backed Iraqi actors are conducting a campaign to expel the United States from Iraq with military and political pressure.

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin reaffirmed that the United States has the right to retaliate against Iranian-backed terror organizations for attacks on US personnel during a phone call with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani on December 9.[52] Austin’s call with Sudani comes after the Islamic Resistance in Iraq escalated its attack campaign on December 8. Austin stated that the US-designated terrorist organizations KH and Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba (HHN) have conducted the majority of attacks on coalition personnel since the Israel-Hamas war began.[53] Austin and Sudani also discussed the Iraqi central government’s obligation to ensure the security of US and coalition personnel, advisers, and facilities.[54]

Sudani ordered the establishment of a working group to investigate the December 8 rocket attacks on the US Embassy in Baghdad and NSS headquarters.[55] Sudani granted the team “broad powers” to confront any threats to the security of diplomatic missions in Iraq.[56] Iraqi military spokesperson Yahya Rasoul claimed that the team will work with local authorities to identify and arrest individuals responsible for the attacks.[57]

Houthi military spokesperson Brigadier General Yahya Sarea announced on December 9 that the Houthis will expand their attacks on maritime traffic around the Red Sea to include all vessels traveling to Israel, regardless of their national affiliation.[58] Sarea said that ”if Gaza does not receive the food and medicine it needs, all ships in the Red Sea bound for Israeli ports, regardless of their nationality, will become a target for our armed forces."[59] The United Nations reported on December 8 the delivery of food, medical supplies, and water, among other aid shipments, to the Gaza Strip.[60] It is therefore unclear on what exactly Sarae is conditioning the end of Houthi attacks and whether he is calling for more aid to go to the Gaza Strip. Sarae’s announcement follows several Houthi attacks against Israeli-owned ships and US naval vessels around the Bab al Mandeb in recent weeks.[61]

Sarea’s announcement is consistent with recent Western media reporting that the Houthis—with Iranian support—plan to expand their attacks on maritime traffic around Yemen. The New York Times reported on December 8 that Iran’s so-called “Axis of Resistance” plans to increase attacks on US and Israeli assets in the Middle East, including Houthi attacks on American-owned vessels operating in the Red Sea.[62] The New York Times also reported that Iran operates an intelligence gathering ship in the Red Sea that helps the Houthis identify vessels to attack. This report is probably referring to the Behshad, which is a military vessel that Iran operates off the Dahlak archipelago.[63] US Deputy National Security Adviser John Finer similarly stated on December 7 that the IRGC is involved in planning and executing the Houthis’ drone and missile attacks on ships in the Red Sea.[64]

Senior Iranian officials discussed the Israel-Hamas war with Syrian Prime Minister Hussein Arnous in Tehran on December 9. Iranian First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber called for an end to American and Israeli “crimes” in the Gaza Strip and criticized international institutions for their inaction during his meeting with Arnous.[65] Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf praised Hamas’ October 7 attack as major turning point for Iran’s so-called ”Axis of Resistance” during his meeting with Arnous.[66] Arnous will later meet with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Supreme National Security Council Secretary Rear Admiral Ali Akbar Ahmadian during his visit to Tehran.[67]

Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian discussed the Israel-Hamas war during a phone call with German Foreign Affairs Minister Alena Burbok on December 9.[68] Abdollahian emphasized the need for finding an immediate political solution to the conflict.

Iran is continuing to pressure the United States and Israel into establishing a permanent ceasefire by warning that failing to do so will precipitate an escalation of the Israel-Hamas war. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian warned that war would likely expand and the “region could explode out of hand” if the United States and Israel continue to support the military operation into the Gaza Strip during a phone call with UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres on December 9. Iranian Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri similarly warned Israel against continuing its “crimes” against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip on December 9. These statements are consistent with previous Iranian rhetoric surrounding the Israel-Hamas war, which CTP-ISW has previously reported.[69]

6.  Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 9, 2023

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-9-2023

Key Takeaways:

• Russian forces have likely committed to offensive operations in multiple sectors of the front during a period of the most challenging weather of the fall-winter season in an effort to seize and retain the initiative prior to the Russian presidential elections in March 2024.
• Ukrainian forces, by contrast, appear to be using this period of challenging weather and ongoing Russian offensive operations to establish and consolidate defensive positions along the parts of the frontline where they have not been conducting counteroffensive operations, thereby conserving manpower and resources for future offensive efforts.
• The establishment of local defensive positions in areas near Kyiv is not prioritizing for current or imminent counteroffensive operations is a prudent step and not an indication that Ukraine has abandoned all plans for future counteroffensives.
• The Kremlin-backed United Russia party is spearheading Russian President Vladimir Putin’s nomination as an independent candidate in the 2024 Russian presidential election, and Putin’s re-election campaign initiatives group includes people with a variety of backgrounds and constituencies to create the image of widespread support for Putin’s presidency.
• Multiple Russian political opposition figures have reportedly developed a common campaign strategy for the upcoming presidential campaign cycle aimed at compelling Putin to address topics he seeks to avoid and revealing the breadth of Russian opposition against Putin.
• Select Russian milbloggers accused the Armenian government of promoting Russophobic policies that inspire violence against Russian media figures in Armenia on December 9.
• The European Union (EU) will allow member states to restrict Russian gas imports in an effort to restrain Russian petroleum revenues.
• A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that Russian decoy missiles failed to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses during December 8 missile strikes against Kyiv City.
• Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov highlighted Ukrainian anti-corruption efforts and preparations for the arrival of F-16 fighter jets in the near future on December 9.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced near Kreminna.
• Relatives of mobilized Russian military personnel continued to appeal to the Russian government for the return of their relatives from the war in Ukraine.
• The Russian Ministry of Culture continues to orchestrate efforts to Russify Ukrainian children and facilitate their deportation to Russia.

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, DECEMBER 9, 2023

Dec 9, 2023 - ISW Press

Download the PDF

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 9, 2023

Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, Angelica Evans, Christina Harward, and Frederick W. Kagan

December 9, 2023, 6pm ET

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Click here to see ISW’s 3D control of terrain topographic map of Ukraine. Use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for using this data-heavy tool.

Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

Note: The data cut-off for this product was 12:45 pm ET on December 9. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the December 10 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

Russian forces have likely committed to offensive operations in multiple sectors of the front during a period of the most challenging weather of the fall-winter season in an effort to seize and retain the initiative prior to the Russian presidential elections in March 2024. Russian forces are currently pursuing offensive efforts along much of the frontline in Ukraine, particularly along the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border, near Bakhmut, and towards Avdiivka as Ukrainian military officials have repeatedly noted, and Russian forces are also conducting continuous ground attacks in western Zaporizhia Oblast.[1] The current pace of fighting across the entire frontline in Ukraine is generally consistent with ISW's standing assessment that Russian forces have been trying to regain the theater-level initiative since at least mid-November 2023.[2] Recent Ukrainian military official statements further suggest that Russian forces have succeeded in seizing the initiative along the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border, near Bakhmut, and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City axis, while Ukrainian forces maintain the initiative in key areas of southern Ukraine, as evidenced by continued Ukrainian counterattacks in western Zaporizhia Oblast and the sustained, larger-than-usual Ukrainian presence in east bank Kherson Oblast.[3]

It is noteworthy that Russian forces have made a concerted effort to regain the theater-wide initiative and initiate offensive operations during the period of the most difficult weather conditions for mechanized offensive operations in the fall, supporting ISW's long-standing assessment that poor weather conditions may slow but do not stop combat along the frontline.[4] Russian forces likely chose to attempt to regain the initiative during such poor weather because Ukrainian forces had largely deprived Russian forces of the ability to regain the initiative and conduct offensives during the summer period of weather much more conducive to military operations.[5] Russian concern over the impending Ukrainian counteroffensive even preceding the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in early June 2023 kept Russian forces in southern Ukraine in the first half of 2023 on the defensive, depriving them of the ability to pursue offensive opportunities in the south in that period.

Over the past several weeks, Russian forces have continued offensive operations along the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border despite snow, frost, and mud in eastern Ukraine, and have conducted continuous ground attacks in western Zaporizhia Oblast despite muddy conditions and strong winds throughout most of the south.[6] Large areas of the frontline, particularly in northeastern and eastern Ukraine, are now transitioning into a period of hard freeze as the temperatures drop and the muddy ground freezes over, which will facilitate mechanized operations for both Russian and Ukrainian forces. The fact that Russian forces sought to seize the initiative and pursue offensive operations in early to mid-November 2023, during the most challenging weather conditions of the year, rather than waiting for the hard freeze suggests that Russian forces are under pressure to fully seize and maintain the initiative into the early months of 2024 prior to the upcoming March 2024 Russian presidential elections. The Russian command may also have sought to cause the Ukrainian counteroffensive to culminate or to ensure that Ukrainian forces would be unable to resume it early this winter. The timing of events suggests, however, that Kyiv had decided to significantly scale back its counteroffensive operations of its own accord before the Russian offensive operations began.

It remains unclear whether current Russian offensive operations will set conditions for Russian forces to make operationally significant gains in the near future, however. Difficult weather conditions have likely slowed the rate of Russian advance along much of the frontline, increased Russian losses, and further damaged the morale of Russian soldiers. The rate of Russian losses along the entire frontline in Ukraine appear to be close to the rate of Russian force generation, as ISW has previously observed, likely indicating that Russian forces are not amassing uncommitted reserves in preparation for more extensive winter operations.[7]

Ukrainian forces, by contrast, appear to be using this period of challenging weather and ongoing Russian offensive operations to establish and consolidate defensive positions along the parts of the frontline where they have not been conducting counteroffensive operations, thereby conserving manpower and resources for future offensive efforts. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi recently signaled Ukraine's current intent to increase fortifications and defensive capabilities throughout the theater, particularly in the aforementioned areas of the front where Russian forces are pursuing offensive operations.[8] The establishment of Ukrainian tactical defensive positions will most likely strengthen Ukrainian forces' capabilities to defend against ongoing and costly Russian attacks with fewer forces of their own and/or while suffering fewer casualties in the defense. Furthermore, the establishment of Ukrainian tactical defensive positions may become a springboard for future Ukrainian offensive operations where and when Ukrainian forces choose to re-initiate offensive operations. The establishment of local defensive positions in areas near Kyiv is not prioritizing for current or imminent counteroffensive operations is a prudent step and not an indication that Ukraine has abandoned all plans for future counteroffensives.

The Kremlin-backed United Russia party is spearheading Russian President Vladimir Putin’s nomination as an independent candidate in the 2024 Russian presidential election, and Putin’s re-election campaign initiatives group includes people with a variety of backgrounds and constituencies to create the image of widespread support for Putin’s presidency. Putin’s re-election campaign initiatives group includes United Russia Secretary Andrei Turchak, Young Guard of United Russia Chairperson Anton Demidov, and other figures from the military, arts, medicine, and sports.[9] Turchak stated that the United Russia party and its All-Russian Popular Front social movement will organize the procedures necessary to nominate Putin, including collecting signatures and conducting his election campaign.[10] The re-election campaign initiatives group also includes Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) “Sparta” Battalion Commander and Speaker of the DNR Parliament Artem Zhoga, whom the Kremlin portrayed on December 8 in Putin’s presidential bid announcement as responsible for prompting Putin to run for re-election.[11] A Russian insider source claimed on December 9 that the Kremlin is considering Zhoga for several high political positions following the 2024 elections, including the Deputy Speaker of the Russian State Duma or the head of the DNR should current DNR Head Denis Pushilin resign or transfer to another position.[12] Zhoga’s rapid political advancement, if it occurs, may create tension in the Pushilin-Putin relationship, which may in turn impact aspects of Russia's occupation of Donetsk Oblast during the election cycle.

Multiple Russian political opposition figures have reportedly developed a common campaign strategy for the upcoming presidential campaign cycle aimed at compelling Putin to address topics he seeks to avoid and revealing the breadth of Russian opposition against Putin. Imprisoned opposition figure Alexei Navalny’s team announced the Anti-Corruption Foundation’s (FBK) election strategy on December 7, which involves calling on Russians to advocate against Putin en masse for 100 days leading up to the election and voting for any candidate except for Putin.[13] Former FBK Chairperson Leonid Volkov noted in a statement to opposition outlet Meduza on December 9 that many outlets are misreporting the FBK’s strategy as simply voting against Putin and stated that the vote alone will not make an impact.[14] Volkov stated that the FBK aims to force Putin to confront difficult topics that he seeks to avoid, such as the Russian war in Ukraine, and noted that these topics are Putin’s “weak point.” Volkov noted that the FBK does not expect to oust Putin from office through this campaign strategy. Russian politician and opposition figure Maxim Kats stated to Meduza on December 9 that he approves of the FBK’s strategy and that the next step in this strategy is to develop a united campaign headquarters to combine resources and that many opposition entities have agreed to join and expressed hope that the FBK will also join.[15] Kats stated that this campaign aims to galvanize enough Russians to vote against Putin that they will protest when the Central Election Commission (CEC) falsifies votes in favor of Putin, ultimately revealing to the world, Russian elites, and even Putin himself how many Russians actually oppose Putin. Russian opposition activist Mikhail Khodorkovsky expressed support for the FBK’s strategy on December 7, encouraged Russians to boycott voting or cast protest votes as part of a “No to Putin” strategy, and stated that these efforts aim to show Putin that Russians are “tired” of him.[16] 

Select Russian milbloggers accused the Armenian government of promoting Russophobic policies that inspire violence against Russian media figures in Armenia on December 9. Russian milbloggers seized on footage of an Armenian man assaulting a Russian social media figure in Yerevan on December 9, claiming that Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s “Russophobic policies” and “dehumanization” of Armenian men are inspiring violence against Russians.[17] One milblogger claimed that ethnic Armenians living in Russia should consider the dangers of Pashinyan’s policies and warned against the possibility of war between Russia and Armenia.[18] Russian sources, including ultranationalist milbloggers and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA), previously expressed anger and accused Armenia of targeting Russians following the detention of a pro-Russian blogger in Armenia in September 2023.[19] Perceived crimes against Russian public figures may become a more prominent point of tension within the Russian ultranationalist information space amid the increasingly deteriorating Russia-Armenia relationship.[20]

The European Union (EU) will allow member states to restrict Russian gas imports in an effort to restrain Russian petroleum revenues. The EU Council and Parliament reached a provisional agreement regarding hydrogen and gas market regulations on December 8 that allows EU states to restrict imports of natural gas, including liquified natural gas (LNG), from Russia or Belarus.[21] Bloomberg reported on December 6 that Russia’s net oil revenue in October 2023 was the highest since May 2022 and that Russia’s domestic oil tanker fleet and “shadow fleet” allowed Russian officials to control exports and increase prices despite the G7’s and EU‘s price cap on Russian petroleum products in established December 2022.[22]

A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that Russian decoy missiles failed to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses during December 8 missile strikes against Kyiv City. The milblogger claimed on December 9 that Russian forces used decoy Kh-55 cruise missiles, which closely resemble the modernized Kh-101 missile variant, to confuse Ukrainian air defenses.[23] The milblogger claimed that Russia’s use of decoy missiles explains why Russian missiles did not successfully strike any targets in Kyiv City.[24] The milblogger complained that it is “virtually impossible” for Russian forces to launch enough decoy Kh-55 missiles to overload Ukrainian air defenses due to Russia’s limited number of Tu-95 and T-160 bombers.[25] Russian forces previously used Kh-55 missiles along other missile and drone variants as decoys to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses and compensate for dwindling high-precision missile stockpiles.[26] Ukrainian officials have repeatedly emphasized that Ukrainian forces do not have enough air defense systems to cover all areas of Ukraine to the same degree that Ukrainian air defenses currently protect Kyiv.[27] Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported on December 8 that Russian forces are conducting increased aerial reconnaissance prior to launching large-scale long-range strikes against targets in eastern and southern Ukraine.[28] Mashovets stated that Russian forces conducted seven reconnaissance flights ahead of the December 8 missile strikes, a notable increase compared to one to two flights on the previous days.[29] Russian forces are likely attempting to counter Ukraine’s limited air defenses ahead of an anticipated large-scale winter strike campaign.[30]

Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov highlighted Ukrainian anti-corruption efforts and preparations for the arrival of F-16 fighter jets in the near future on December 9. Umerov met with US Department of Defense (DoD) Inspector General Robert Storch on December 9 and stated that Ukraine has already begun to work with the Office of the Inspector General on a system to control and prevent violations and crimes involving American security assistance to Ukraine.[31] Umerov also announced on December 9 that Ukraine will soon receive F-16 fighter jets and that Ukraine is already preparing infrastructure for the jets’ arrival.[32]

Key Takeaways:

• Russian forces have likely committed to offensive operations in multiple sectors of the front during a period of the most challenging weather of the fall-winter season in an effort to seize and retain the initiative prior to the Russian presidential elections in March 2024.
• Ukrainian forces, by contrast, appear to be using this period of challenging weather and ongoing Russian offensive operations to establish and consolidate defensive positions along the parts of the frontline where they have not been conducting counteroffensive operations, thereby conserving manpower and resources for future offensive efforts.
• The establishment of local defensive positions in areas near Kyiv is not prioritizing for current or imminent counteroffensive operations is a prudent step and not an indication that Ukraine has abandoned all plans for future counteroffensives.
• The Kremlin-backed United Russia party is spearheading Russian President Vladimir Putin’s nomination as an independent candidate in the 2024 Russian presidential election, and Putin’s re-election campaign initiatives group includes people with a variety of backgrounds and constituencies to create the image of widespread support for Putin’s presidency.
• Multiple Russian political opposition figures have reportedly developed a common campaign strategy for the upcoming presidential campaign cycle aimed at compelling Putin to address topics he seeks to avoid and revealing the breadth of Russian opposition against Putin.
• Select Russian milbloggers accused the Armenian government of promoting Russophobic policies that inspire violence against Russian media figures in Armenia on December 9.
• The European Union (EU) will allow member states to restrict Russian gas imports in an effort to restrain Russian petroleum revenues.
• A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that Russian decoy missiles failed to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses during December 8 missile strikes against Kyiv City.
• Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov highlighted Ukrainian anti-corruption efforts and preparations for the arrival of F-16 fighter jets in the near future on December 9.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced near Kreminna.
• Relatives of mobilized Russian military personnel continued to appeal to the Russian government for the return of their relatives from the war in Ukraine.
• The Russian Ministry of Culture continues to orchestrate efforts to Russify Ukrainian children and facilitate their deportation to Russia.

We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.   

• Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine (comprised of two subordinate main efforts)
• Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast
• Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast
• Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis
• Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts
• Russian Technological Adaptations
• Activities in Russian-occupied areas
• Russian Information Operations and Narratives

Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)

Russian forces continued offensive operations on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on December 9 and recently made an advance. Geolocated footage published on December 8 and 9 shows that Russian forces advanced southeast of Terny (17km west of Kreminna), and Russian milbloggers claimed on December 9 that Russian forces advanced up to 1.5 kilometers near Terny and Yampolivka (17km west of Kreminna).[33] One milblogger noted that dense Ukrainian fortifications in the Terny-Yampolivka area will impede Russian advances.[34] Another Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced 1.5 kilometers near Vesele (31km south of Kreminna) in the past day and 3.5 kilometers total in a recent localized offensive effort, though ISW has yet to observe any visual confirmation of Russian advances in this area.[35] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks northeast of Petropavlivka (7km east of Kupyansk) and near Synkivka (9km east of Kupyansk), Ivanivka (20km southeast of Kupyansk), Novoselivske (14km northwest of Svatove), and Spirne (25km south of Kreminna).[36]

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on December 9 but did not advance. Russian military sources claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks near Synkivka, Novoselivske, the Serebryanske forest area (11km south of Kreminna), and Bilohorivka (13km south of Kreminna).[37]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut direction on December 9 and reportedly made unconfirmed advances. Russian sources claimed on December 8 and 9 that Russian forces advanced near Bohdanivka (6km northwest of Bakhmut); towards Hyrhorivka (9km northwest of Bakhmut) and Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km northwest of Bakhmut); northwest of Khromove (immediately west of Bakhmut); and north and west of Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut).[38] The Ukrainian General Staff reported on December 9 that Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, and Klishchiivka.[39] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces also attacked near Andriivka (10km southwest of Bakhmut).[40] Russian sources claimed that fighting is ongoing for the heights near Klishchiivka and that Russian forces captured the “Ostriv" stronghold north of Klishchiivka, although ISW has not observed visual confirmation of this claim.[41] Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated on December 8 that Russian forces introduced the newly-formed 299th Parachute Regiment (98th Airborne [VDV] Division) to the Bakhmut direction.[42] Mashovets stated that the 299th Regiment will operate along the Berkhivka-Khromove line (up to 6km northwest of Bakhmut) or the Krasnopolivka-Yakovlivka line (up to 9km north of Bakhmut), making this the third of the three regiments of the 98th VDV Division to be operating on the northern flank of Bakhmut after the Russian command redeployed the 331st and 217th regiments between Bohdanivka and Khromove.[43] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Ivanivske (6km west of Bakhmut).[44]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Avdiivka direction on December 9 and reportedly made unconfirmed advances. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced towards Novobakhmutivka (9km northwest of Avdiivka) and Novokalynove (13km northeast of Avdiivka), southeast of Pervomaiske (10km southwest of Avdiivka), near the industrial zone southeast of Avdiivka, and up to 150 meters near the Avdiivka Coke Plant northwest of Avdiivka.[45] One Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces gained a foothold in central Stepove (3km northwest of Avdiivka), although ISW has not observed visual evidence of this claim.[46] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked east of Novobakhmutivka and near Stepove, Avdiivka, Tonenke (5km west of Avdiivka), and Pervomaiske.[47] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces also attacked near Sieverne (6km west of Avdiivka), the industrial zone, and the Avdiivka Coke Plant.[48] Ukrainian journalist Yuriy Butusov stated that Russian forces are using remoted-controlled wheeled and tracked vehicles to deliver goods to frontline positions and evacuate wounded in the Avdiivka direction, and a Russian milblogger attributed the usage of remote-controlled vehicles to high Russian vehicle losses and the number of drones flying in the area.[49] Ukrainian forces are targeting these remote-controlled vehicles with drones already, however.[50]

Russian forces continued offensive operations west and southwest of Donetsk City on December 9 but did not make any claimed or confirmed advances. Russian milbloggers reported that Russian forces continued fighting on the northern outskirts of Marinka (just west of Donetsk City) and near Novomykhailivka (10km southwest of Donetsk City).[51] Russian sources claimed that elements of the Russian 150th Motorized Rifle Division (8th Combined Arms Army, Southern Military District) and 5th Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st Donetsk People's Republic [DNR] Army Corps) are advancing within Marinka.[52] One milblogger noted that Russian forces are attacking in the direction of Hostre (6km west of Marinka), which the milblogger characterized as a new active sector of the front.[53] The Ukrainian General Staff reported unsuccessful Russian attacks near Marinka, Krasnohorivka (on the western outskirts of Donetsk City), Novomykhailivka, and Pobieda (5km southwest of Donetsk City).[54]

Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted unsuccessful assaults in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area on December 9. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that elements of the Russian Southern Grouping of Forces repelled a Ukrainian attack near Novodonetske (15km southeast of Velyka Novosilka).[55] The Russian “Vostok” Battalion claimed that Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully attempted to capture the battalion’s positions in an unspecified area of the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, potentially referring to the Novodonetske area.[56]

Russian forces conducted assaults in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area on December 9 but did not make confirmed advances. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled two Russian attacks near Staromayorske (9km south of Velyka Novosilka).[57] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces captured several positions on the approaches to Staromayorske and Urozhaine (9km south of Velyka Novosilka).[58] Another Russian milblogger published footage claiming to show elements of the Russian 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade (Special Forces of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces [GRU]) operating near Novodonetske.[59]

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast on December 9 and reportedly advanced. A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces successfully counterattacked west of Robotyne.[60] Another Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Robotyne and towards Verbove (9km east of Robotyne).[61]

Russian forces counterattacked in western Zaporizhia Oblast on December 9 but did not make confirmed advances. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks west of Robotyne and Verbove and near Novopokrovka (16km northeast of Robotyne).[62] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces, likely elements of the Russian 76th Guards Air Assault (VDV) Division, advanced north of Verbove.[63] A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces also attacked from Novofedorivka (15km northeast of Robotyne).[64] Russian milbloggers claimed that poor weather conditions in western Zaporizhia Oblast are affecting Russian and Ukrainian ground activity and shelling.[65]

Ukrainian forces maintain positions on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast on December 9 amid Russian efforts to push Ukrainian forces from positions in Krynky (30km northeast of Kherson City and 2km from the Dnipro River). The Ukrainian General Staff reported on December 9 that Ukrainian forces maintain positions on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River.[66] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces are striking Ukrainian positions and sinking boats attempting to transfer Ukrainian personnel to Krynky.[67] Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated on December 8 that Russian forces are attempting to advance east of Krynky and are strengthening defenses southwest of Oleshky (7km south of Kherson City and 4km from the Dnipro River), near Pidlisne (8km south of Kherson City and 6km from the Dnipro River), and near Kardashynka (7km south of Kherson City and 2km from the Dnipro River).[68]

Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)

Relatives of mobilized Russian military personnel continued to appeal to the Russian government for the return of their relatives from the war in Ukraine. The “Way Home” group, a movement of relatives of mobilized Russian military personnel, published photos on December 9 showing women holding posters appealing to Russian President Vladimir Putin for the return of their relatives from Ukraine and for their demobilization.[69] Members of the ”Way Home” movement also laid flowers at the Eternal Flame in Moscow on December 9 in honor of Russian military personnel who have died in the war in Ukraine after the police initially warned the group against the action on December 8 and then tried to prevent some of the group from laying flowers on December 9.[70] Russian opposition outlet Vazhnye Istorii reported that many members of the movement did not participate in the event after police issued warnings to some individuals of the group on December 8.[71]

The Kremlin continues efforts to militarize Russian youth as part of long-term force generation efforts. Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a virtual address to Yunarmiya (Russian Young Army Cadets National Movement) in honor of the Day of Heroes of the Fatherland on December 9.[72] Putin claimed that Russian servicemen currently fighting in Ukraine serve as a “reliable guide” to Yunarmiya members and encouraged the children to want to “defend [Russia] without regard for fame or recognition.”

Russian Technological Adaptations (Russian objective: Introduce technological innovations to optimize systems for use in Ukraine) 

Nothing significant to report.

Activities in Russian-occupied areas (Russian objective: Consolidate administrative control of annexed areas; forcibly integrate Ukrainian citizens into Russian sociocultural, economic, military, and governance systems)

The Russian Ministry of Culture continues to orchestrate efforts to Russify Ukrainian children and facilitate their deportation to Russia. Luhansk People's Republic Head Leonid Pasechnik claimed that between December 4 and 8, 600 children from occupied Ukraine have arrived in Moscow and 200 in St. Petersburg as part of the "Cultural Map 4 + 85" program, which operates under the auspices of the Russian Ministry of Culture.[73] As part of the program, Ukrainian children are exposed to Russian cultural heritage sites.[74] Zaporizhia Oblast occupation head Yevgeny Balitsky similarly claimed that 2,500 school-aged children from occupied Zaporizhia Oblast went on "cultural and educational trips" to Russia in 2023 as part of the "Culture" national project, which also operates under the Russian Ministry of Culture.[75]

Limited Qatari-mediated efforts continue to repatriate small numbers of deported Ukrainian children, although the number of children who return to Ukraine is a miniscule fraction of the overall number of confirmed deportations. Russian Commissioner on Children's Rights Maria Lvova-Belova stated on December 8 that Russian authorities, with facilitation by Qatar, reunited six Ukrainian children with their families in Ukraine.[76] Ukrainian First Lady Olena Zelenska noted that only 387 of the 20,000 Ukraine children deported to Russia have returned to Ukraine, however[77]

Russian Information Operations and Narratives

Nothing significant to report.

Significant activity in Belarus (Russian efforts to increase its military presence in Belarus and further integrate Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks and Wagner Group activity in Belarus)

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko met with Equatorial Guinean President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo and Vice President Teodoro Nguema Obiang Mangue on December 9 in Equatorial Guinea, the first of a series of meetings with African leaders on the continent.[78]

Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported on December 8 that elements of the Belarusian 38th Separate Guards Airborne Assault Brigade and likely the 11th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade participated in combat training exercises at the Brest Training Ground in Belarus on December 6.[79] Belarusian Defense Minister Lieutenant General Viktor Khrenin and Belarusian Security Council State Secretary Lieutenant General Alexander Volfovich personally observed the exercises.

The United Kingdom's Ministry of Foreign Affairs (UK MFA) sanctioned 17 members of the Belarusian judiciary involved in politically motivated cases against political activists, independent journalists, and human rights defenders on December 9.[80]

Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.

Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, Angelica Evans, Christina Harward, and Frederick W. Kagan

December 9, 2023, 6pm ET

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Click here to see ISW’s 3D control of terrain topographic map of Ukraine. Use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for using this data-heavy tool.

Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

Note: The data cut-off for this product was 12:45 pm ET on December 9. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the December 10 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

Russian forces have likely committed to offensive operations in multiple sectors of the front during a period of the most challenging weather of the fall-winter season in an effort to seize and retain the initiative prior to the Russian presidential elections in March 2024. Russian forces are currently pursuing offensive efforts along much of the frontline in Ukraine, particularly along the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border, near Bakhmut, and towards Avdiivka as Ukrainian military officials have repeatedly noted, and Russian forces are also conducting continuous ground attacks in western Zaporizhia Oblast.[1] The current pace of fighting across the entire frontline in Ukraine is generally consistent with ISW's standing assessment that Russian forces have been trying to regain the theater-level initiative since at least mid-November 2023.[2] Recent Ukrainian military official statements further suggest that Russian forces have succeeded in seizing the initiative along the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border, near Bakhmut, and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City axis, while Ukrainian forces maintain the initiative in key areas of southern Ukraine, as evidenced by continued Ukrainian counterattacks in western Zaporizhia Oblast and the sustained, larger-than-usual Ukrainian presence in east bank Kherson Oblast.[3]

It is noteworthy that Russian forces have made a concerted effort to regain the theater-wide initiative and initiate offensive operations during the period of the most difficult weather conditions for mechanized offensive operations in the fall, supporting ISW's long-standing assessment that poor weather conditions may slow but do not stop combat along the frontline.[4] Russian forces likely chose to attempt to regain the initiative during such poor weather because Ukrainian forces had largely deprived Russian forces of the ability to regain the initiative and conduct offensives during the summer period of weather much more conducive to military operations.[5] Russian concern over the impending Ukrainian counteroffensive even preceding the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in early June 2023 kept Russian forces in southern Ukraine in the first half of 2023 on the defensive, depriving them of the ability to pursue offensive opportunities in the south in that period.

Over the past several weeks, Russian forces have continued offensive operations along the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border despite snow, frost, and mud in eastern Ukraine, and have conducted continuous ground attacks in western Zaporizhia Oblast despite muddy conditions and strong winds throughout most of the south.[6] Large areas of the frontline, particularly in northeastern and eastern Ukraine, are now transitioning into a period of hard freeze as the temperatures drop and the muddy ground freezes over, which will facilitate mechanized operations for both Russian and Ukrainian forces. The fact that Russian forces sought to seize the initiative and pursue offensive operations in early to mid-November 2023, during the most challenging weather conditions of the year, rather than waiting for the hard freeze suggests that Russian forces are under pressure to fully seize and maintain the initiative into the early months of 2024 prior to the upcoming March 2024 Russian presidential elections. The Russian command may also have sought to cause the Ukrainian counteroffensive to culminate or to ensure that Ukrainian forces would be unable to resume it early this winter. The timing of events suggests, however, that Kyiv had decided to significantly scale back its counteroffensive operations of its own accord before the Russian offensive operations began.

It remains unclear whether current Russian offensive operations will set conditions for Russian forces to make operationally significant gains in the near future, however. Difficult weather conditions have likely slowed the rate of Russian advance along much of the frontline, increased Russian losses, and further damaged the morale of Russian soldiers. The rate of Russian losses along the entire frontline in Ukraine appear to be close to the rate of Russian force generation, as ISW has previously observed, likely indicating that Russian forces are not amassing uncommitted reserves in preparation for more extensive winter operations.[7]

Ukrainian forces, by contrast, appear to be using this period of challenging weather and ongoing Russian offensive operations to establish and consolidate defensive positions along the parts of the frontline where they have not been conducting counteroffensive operations, thereby conserving manpower and resources for future offensive efforts. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi recently signaled Ukraine's current intent to increase fortifications and defensive capabilities throughout the theater, particularly in the aforementioned areas of the front where Russian forces are pursuing offensive operations.[8] The establishment of Ukrainian tactical defensive positions will most likely strengthen Ukrainian forces' capabilities to defend against ongoing and costly Russian attacks with fewer forces of their own and/or while suffering fewer casualties in the defense. Furthermore, the establishment of Ukrainian tactical defensive positions may become a springboard for future Ukrainian offensive operations where and when Ukrainian forces choose to re-initiate offensive operations. The establishment of local defensive positions in areas near Kyiv is not prioritizing for current or imminent counteroffensive operations is a prudent step and not an indication that Ukraine has abandoned all plans for future counteroffensives.

The Kremlin-backed United Russia party is spearheading Russian President Vladimir Putin’s nomination as an independent candidate in the 2024 Russian presidential election, and Putin’s re-election campaign initiatives group includes people with a variety of backgrounds and constituencies to create the image of widespread support for Putin’s presidency. Putin’s re-election campaign initiatives group includes United Russia Secretary Andrei Turchak, Young Guard of United Russia Chairperson Anton Demidov, and other figures from the military, arts, medicine, and sports.[9] Turchak stated that the United Russia party and its All-Russian Popular Front social movement will organize the procedures necessary to nominate Putin, including collecting signatures and conducting his election campaign.[10] The re-election campaign initiatives group also includes Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) “Sparta” Battalion Commander and Speaker of the DNR Parliament Artem Zhoga, whom the Kremlin portrayed on December 8 in Putin’s presidential bid announcement as responsible for prompting Putin to run for re-election.[11] A Russian insider source claimed on December 9 that the Kremlin is considering Zhoga for several high political positions following the 2024 elections, including the Deputy Speaker of the Russian State Duma or the head of the DNR should current DNR Head Denis Pushilin resign or transfer to another position.[12] Zhoga’s rapid political advancement, if it occurs, may create tension in the Pushilin-Putin relationship, which may in turn impact aspects of Russia's occupation of Donetsk Oblast during the election cycle.

Multiple Russian political opposition figures have reportedly developed a common campaign strategy for the upcoming presidential campaign cycle aimed at compelling Putin to address topics he seeks to avoid and revealing the breadth of Russian opposition against Putin. Imprisoned opposition figure Alexei Navalny’s team announced the Anti-Corruption Foundation’s (FBK) election strategy on December 7, which involves calling on Russians to advocate against Putin en masse for 100 days leading up to the election and voting for any candidate except for Putin.[13] Former FBK Chairperson Leonid Volkov noted in a statement to opposition outlet Meduza on December 9 that many outlets are misreporting the FBK’s strategy as simply voting against Putin and stated that the vote alone will not make an impact.[14] Volkov stated that the FBK aims to force Putin to confront difficult topics that he seeks to avoid, such as the Russian war in Ukraine, and noted that these topics are Putin’s “weak point.” Volkov noted that the FBK does not expect to oust Putin from office through this campaign strategy. Russian politician and opposition figure Maxim Kats stated to Meduza on December 9 that he approves of the FBK’s strategy and that the next step in this strategy is to develop a united campaign headquarters to combine resources and that many opposition entities have agreed to join and expressed hope that the FBK will also join.[15] Kats stated that this campaign aims to galvanize enough Russians to vote against Putin that they will protest when the Central Election Commission (CEC) falsifies votes in favor of Putin, ultimately revealing to the world, Russian elites, and even Putin himself how many Russians actually oppose Putin. Russian opposition activist Mikhail Khodorkovsky expressed support for the FBK’s strategy on December 7, encouraged Russians to boycott voting or cast protest votes as part of a “No to Putin” strategy, and stated that these efforts aim to show Putin that Russians are “tired” of him.[16] 

Select Russian milbloggers accused the Armenian government of promoting Russophobic policies that inspire violence against Russian media figures in Armenia on December 9. Russian milbloggers seized on footage of an Armenian man assaulting a Russian social media figure in Yerevan on December 9, claiming that Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s “Russophobic policies” and “dehumanization” of Armenian men are inspiring violence against Russians.[17] One milblogger claimed that ethnic Armenians living in Russia should consider the dangers of Pashinyan’s policies and warned against the possibility of war between Russia and Armenia.[18] Russian sources, including ultranationalist milbloggers and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA), previously expressed anger and accused Armenia of targeting Russians following the detention of a pro-Russian blogger in Armenia in September 2023.[19] Perceived crimes against Russian public figures may become a more prominent point of tension within the Russian ultranationalist information space amid the increasingly deteriorating Russia-Armenia relationship.[20]

The European Union (EU) will allow member states to restrict Russian gas imports in an effort to restrain Russian petroleum revenues. The EU Council and Parliament reached a provisional agreement regarding hydrogen and gas market regulations on December 8 that allows EU states to restrict imports of natural gas, including liquified natural gas (LNG), from Russia or Belarus.[21] Bloomberg reported on December 6 that Russia’s net oil revenue in October 2023 was the highest since May 2022 and that Russia’s domestic oil tanker fleet and “shadow fleet” allowed Russian officials to control exports and increase prices despite the G7’s and EU‘s price cap on Russian petroleum products in established December 2022.[22]

A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that Russian decoy missiles failed to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses during December 8 missile strikes against Kyiv City. The milblogger claimed on December 9 that Russian forces used decoy Kh-55 cruise missiles, which closely resemble the modernized Kh-101 missile variant, to confuse Ukrainian air defenses.[23] The milblogger claimed that Russia’s use of decoy missiles explains why Russian missiles did not successfully strike any targets in Kyiv City.[24] The milblogger complained that it is “virtually impossible” for Russian forces to launch enough decoy Kh-55 missiles to overload Ukrainian air defenses due to Russia’s limited number of Tu-95 and T-160 bombers.[25] Russian forces previously used Kh-55 missiles along other missile and drone variants as decoys to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses and compensate for dwindling high-precision missile stockpiles.[26] Ukrainian officials have repeatedly emphasized that Ukrainian forces do not have enough air defense systems to cover all areas of Ukraine to the same degree that Ukrainian air defenses currently protect Kyiv.[27] Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported on December 8 that Russian forces are conducting increased aerial reconnaissance prior to launching large-scale long-range strikes against targets in eastern and southern Ukraine.[28] Mashovets stated that Russian forces conducted seven reconnaissance flights ahead of the December 8 missile strikes, a notable increase compared to one to two flights on the previous days.[29] Russian forces are likely attempting to counter Ukraine’s limited air defenses ahead of an anticipated large-scale winter strike campaign.[30]

Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov highlighted Ukrainian anti-corruption efforts and preparations for the arrival of F-16 fighter jets in the near future on December 9. Umerov met with US Department of Defense (DoD) Inspector General Robert Storch on December 9 and stated that Ukraine has already begun to work with the Office of the Inspector General on a system to control and prevent violations and crimes involving American security assistance to Ukraine.[31] Umerov also announced on December 9 that Ukraine will soon receive F-16 fighter jets and that Ukraine is already preparing infrastructure for the jets’ arrival.[32]

Key Takeaways:

• Russian forces have likely committed to offensive operations in multiple sectors of the front during a period of the most challenging weather of the fall-winter season in an effort to seize and retain the initiative prior to the Russian presidential elections in March 2024.
• Ukrainian forces, by contrast, appear to be using this period of challenging weather and ongoing Russian offensive operations to establish and consolidate defensive positions along the parts of the frontline where they have not been conducting counteroffensive operations, thereby conserving manpower and resources for future offensive efforts.
• The establishment of local defensive positions in areas near Kyiv is not prioritizing for current or imminent counteroffensive operations is a prudent step and not an indication that Ukraine has abandoned all plans for future counteroffensives.
• The Kremlin-backed United Russia party is spearheading Russian President Vladimir Putin’s nomination as an independent candidate in the 2024 Russian presidential election, and Putin’s re-election campaign initiatives group includes people with a variety of backgrounds and constituencies to create the image of widespread support for Putin’s presidency.
• Multiple Russian political opposition figures have reportedly developed a common campaign strategy for the upcoming presidential campaign cycle aimed at compelling Putin to address topics he seeks to avoid and revealing the breadth of Russian opposition against Putin.
• Select Russian milbloggers accused the Armenian government of promoting Russophobic policies that inspire violence against Russian media figures in Armenia on December 9.
• The European Union (EU) will allow member states to restrict Russian gas imports in an effort to restrain Russian petroleum revenues.
• A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that Russian decoy missiles failed to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses during December 8 missile strikes against Kyiv City.
• Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov highlighted Ukrainian anti-corruption efforts and preparations for the arrival of F-16 fighter jets in the near future on December 9.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced near Kreminna.
• Relatives of mobilized Russian military personnel continued to appeal to the Russian government for the return of their relatives from the war in Ukraine.
• The Russian Ministry of Culture continues to orchestrate efforts to Russify Ukrainian children and facilitate their deportation to Russia.

We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.   

• Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine (comprised of two subordinate main efforts)
• Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast
• Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast
• Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis
• Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts
• Russian Technological Adaptations
• Activities in Russian-occupied areas
• Russian Information Operations and Narratives

Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)

Russian forces continued offensive operations on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on December 9 and recently made an advance. Geolocated footage published on December 8 and 9 shows that Russian forces advanced southeast of Terny (17km west of Kreminna), and Russian milbloggers claimed on December 9 that Russian forces advanced up to 1.5 kilometers near Terny and Yampolivka (17km west of Kreminna).[33] One milblogger noted that dense Ukrainian fortifications in the Terny-Yampolivka area will impede Russian advances.[34] Another Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced 1.5 kilometers near Vesele (31km south of Kreminna) in the past day and 3.5 kilometers total in a recent localized offensive effort, though ISW has yet to observe any visual confirmation of Russian advances in this area.[35] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks northeast of Petropavlivka (7km east of Kupyansk) and near Synkivka (9km east of Kupyansk), Ivanivka (20km southeast of Kupyansk), Novoselivske (14km northwest of Svatove), and Spirne (25km south of Kreminna).[36]

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on December 9 but did not advance. Russian military sources claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks near Synkivka, Novoselivske, the Serebryanske forest area (11km south of Kreminna), and Bilohorivka (13km south of Kreminna).[37]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut direction on December 9 and reportedly made unconfirmed advances. Russian sources claimed on December 8 and 9 that Russian forces advanced near Bohdanivka (6km northwest of Bakhmut); towards Hyrhorivka (9km northwest of Bakhmut) and Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km northwest of Bakhmut); northwest of Khromove (immediately west of Bakhmut); and north and west of Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut).[38] The Ukrainian General Staff reported on December 9 that Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, and Klishchiivka.[39] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces also attacked near Andriivka (10km southwest of Bakhmut).[40] Russian sources claimed that fighting is ongoing for the heights near Klishchiivka and that Russian forces captured the “Ostriv" stronghold north of Klishchiivka, although ISW has not observed visual confirmation of this claim.[41] Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated on December 8 that Russian forces introduced the newly-formed 299th Parachute Regiment (98th Airborne [VDV] Division) to the Bakhmut direction.[42] Mashovets stated that the 299th Regiment will operate along the Berkhivka-Khromove line (up to 6km northwest of Bakhmut) or the Krasnopolivka-Yakovlivka line (up to 9km north of Bakhmut), making this the third of the three regiments of the 98th VDV Division to be operating on the northern flank of Bakhmut after the Russian command redeployed the 331st and 217th regiments between Bohdanivka and Khromove.[43] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Ivanivske (6km west of Bakhmut).[44]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Avdiivka direction on December 9 and reportedly made unconfirmed advances. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced towards Novobakhmutivka (9km northwest of Avdiivka) and Novokalynove (13km northeast of Avdiivka), southeast of Pervomaiske (10km southwest of Avdiivka), near the industrial zone southeast of Avdiivka, and up to 150 meters near the Avdiivka Coke Plant northwest of Avdiivka.[45] One Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces gained a foothold in central Stepove (3km northwest of Avdiivka), although ISW has not observed visual evidence of this claim.[46] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked east of Novobakhmutivka and near Stepove, Avdiivka, Tonenke (5km west of Avdiivka), and Pervomaiske.[47] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces also attacked near Sieverne (6km west of Avdiivka), the industrial zone, and the Avdiivka Coke Plant.[48] Ukrainian journalist Yuriy Butusov stated that Russian forces are using remoted-controlled wheeled and tracked vehicles to deliver goods to frontline positions and evacuate wounded in the Avdiivka direction, and a Russian milblogger attributed the usage of remote-controlled vehicles to high Russian vehicle losses and the number of drones flying in the area.[49] Ukrainian forces are targeting these remote-controlled vehicles with drones already, however.[50]

Russian forces continued offensive operations west and southwest of Donetsk City on December 9 but did not make any claimed or confirmed advances. Russian milbloggers reported that Russian forces continued fighting on the northern outskirts of Marinka (just west of Donetsk City) and near Novomykhailivka (10km southwest of Donetsk City).[51] Russian sources claimed that elements of the Russian 150th Motorized Rifle Division (8th Combined Arms Army, Southern Military District) and 5th Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st Donetsk People's Republic [DNR] Army Corps) are advancing within Marinka.[52] One milblogger noted that Russian forces are attacking in the direction of Hostre (6km west of Marinka), which the milblogger characterized as a new active sector of the front.[53] The Ukrainian General Staff reported unsuccessful Russian attacks near Marinka, Krasnohorivka (on the western outskirts of Donetsk City), Novomykhailivka, and Pobieda (5km southwest of Donetsk City).[54]

Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted unsuccessful assaults in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area on December 9. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that elements of the Russian Southern Grouping of Forces repelled a Ukrainian attack near Novodonetske (15km southeast of Velyka Novosilka).[55] The Russian “Vostok” Battalion claimed that Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully attempted to capture the battalion’s positions in an unspecified area of the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, potentially referring to the Novodonetske area.[56]

Russian forces conducted assaults in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area on December 9 but did not make confirmed advances. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled two Russian attacks near Staromayorske (9km south of Velyka Novosilka).[57] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces captured several positions on the approaches to Staromayorske and Urozhaine (9km south of Velyka Novosilka).[58] Another Russian milblogger published footage claiming to show elements of the Russian 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade (Special Forces of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces [GRU]) operating near Novodonetske.[59]

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast on December 9 and reportedly advanced. A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces successfully counterattacked west of Robotyne.[60] Another Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Robotyne and towards Verbove (9km east of Robotyne).[61]

Russian forces counterattacked in western Zaporizhia Oblast on December 9 but did not make confirmed advances. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks west of Robotyne and Verbove and near Novopokrovka (16km northeast of Robotyne).[62] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces, likely elements of the Russian 76th Guards Air Assault (VDV) Division, advanced north of Verbove.[63] A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces also attacked from Novofedorivka (15km northeast of Robotyne).[64] Russian milbloggers claimed that poor weather conditions in western Zaporizhia Oblast are affecting Russian and Ukrainian ground activity and shelling.[65]

Ukrainian forces maintain positions on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast on December 9 amid Russian efforts to push Ukrainian forces from positions in Krynky (30km northeast of Kherson City and 2km from the Dnipro River). The Ukrainian General Staff reported on December 9 that Ukrainian forces maintain positions on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River.[66] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces are striking Ukrainian positions and sinking boats attempting to transfer Ukrainian personnel to Krynky.[67] Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated on December 8 that Russian forces are attempting to advance east of Krynky and are strengthening defenses southwest of Oleshky (7km south of Kherson City and 4km from the Dnipro River), near Pidlisne (8km south of Kherson City and 6km from the Dnipro River), and near Kardashynka (7km south of Kherson City and 2km from the Dnipro River).[68]

Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)

Relatives of mobilized Russian military personnel continued to appeal to the Russian government for the return of their relatives from the war in Ukraine. The “Way Home” group, a movement of relatives of mobilized Russian military personnel, published photos on December 9 showing women holding posters appealing to Russian President Vladimir Putin for the return of their relatives from Ukraine and for their demobilization.[69] Members of the ”Way Home” movement also laid flowers at the Eternal Flame in Moscow on December 9 in honor of Russian military personnel who have died in the war in Ukraine after the police initially warned the group against the action on December 8 and then tried to prevent some of the group from laying flowers on December 9.[70] Russian opposition outlet Vazhnye Istorii reported that many members of the movement did not participate in the event after police issued warnings to some individuals of the group on December 8.[71]

The Kremlin continues efforts to militarize Russian youth as part of long-term force generation efforts. Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a virtual address to Yunarmiya (Russian Young Army Cadets National Movement) in honor of the Day of Heroes of the Fatherland on December 9.[72] Putin claimed that Russian servicemen currently fighting in Ukraine serve as a “reliable guide” to Yunarmiya members and encouraged the children to want to “defend [Russia] without regard for fame or recognition.”

Russian Technological Adaptations (Russian objective: Introduce technological innovations to optimize systems for use in Ukraine) 

Nothing significant to report.

Activities in Russian-occupied areas (Russian objective: Consolidate administrative control of annexed areas; forcibly integrate Ukrainian citizens into Russian sociocultural, economic, military, and governance systems)

The Russian Ministry of Culture continues to orchestrate efforts to Russify Ukrainian children and facilitate their deportation to Russia. Luhansk People's Republic Head Leonid Pasechnik claimed that between December 4 and 8, 600 children from occupied Ukraine have arrived in Moscow and 200 in St. Petersburg as part of the "Cultural Map 4 + 85" program, which operates under the auspices of the Russian Ministry of Culture.[73] As part of the program, Ukrainian children are exposed to Russian cultural heritage sites.[74] Zaporizhia Oblast occupation head Yevgeny Balitsky similarly claimed that 2,500 school-aged children from occupied Zaporizhia Oblast went on "cultural and educational trips" to Russia in 2023 as part of the "Culture" national project, which also operates under the Russian Ministry of Culture.[75]

Limited Qatari-mediated efforts continue to repatriate small numbers of deported Ukrainian children, although the number of children who return to Ukraine is a miniscule fraction of the overall number of confirmed deportations. Russian Commissioner on Children's Rights Maria Lvova-Belova stated on December 8 that Russian authorities, with facilitation by Qatar, reunited six Ukrainian children with their families in Ukraine.[76] Ukrainian First Lady Olena Zelenska noted that only 387 of the 20,000 Ukraine children deported to Russia have returned to Ukraine, however[77]

Russian Information Operations and Narratives

Nothing significant to report.

Significant activity in Belarus (Russian efforts to increase its military presence in Belarus and further integrate Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks and Wagner Group activity in Belarus)

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko met with Equatorial Guinean President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo and Vice President Teodoro Nguema Obiang Mangue on December 9 in Equatorial Guinea, the first of a series of meetings with African leaders on the continent.[78]

Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported on December 8 that elements of the Belarusian 38th Separate Guards Airborne Assault Brigade and likely the 11th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade participated in combat training exercises at the Brest Training Ground in Belarus on December 6.[79] Belarusian Defense Minister Lieutenant General Viktor Khrenin and Belarusian Security Council State Secretary Lieutenant General Alexander Volfovich personally observed the exercises.

The United Kingdom's Ministry of Foreign Affairs (UK MFA) sanctioned 17 members of the Belarusian judiciary involved in politically motivated cases against political activists, independent journalists, and human rights defenders on December 9.[80]

Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.

7. Opinion | The GOP’s abandonment of Ukraine makes me ashamed to be an American by Max Boot

Ukrainians will fight on regardless, and they will look for help to Europe, which has already committed twice as much funding as the United States. But, even working together, Europe and the United States have struggled to keep up with Ukraine’s need for ammunition. There is no way that Europe alone can carry the whole load, especially not when Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban — MAGA Republicans’ favorite foreign leader — is trying to block a $55 billion European Union aid package for Ukraine.

The United States has abandoned allies, such as South Vietnam and Afghanistan, before. But this time the costs of support are much lower (no U.S. soldiers are engaged in combat in Ukraine), and the stakes are far higher. Ukraine is fighting the largest war that Europe has seen since 1945. If it loses, Vladimir Putin may be emboldened to attack other neighboring states, such as the Baltic republics and even Poland, which are members of NATO. Other despots may be emboldened to aggression of their own, beginning with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Taiwan. And then we really will be back to the pre-Pearl Harbor world — all thanks to the Republican Party returning to its isolationist roots.

Unless Congress reverses course, and soon, it could be consigning our democratic allies to slaughter — and making the world a far more dangerous place.

Opinion | The GOP’s abandonment of Ukraine makes me ashamed to be an American

By Max Boot

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December 8, 2023 at 6:30 a.m. EST

The Washington Post · by Max Boot · December 8, 2023

It’s not often that I feel ashamed to be an American. But I was ashamed this week when the Senate refused to support a supplemental spending bill that would provide about $61 billion in urgently needed aid for Ukraine (along with $14 billion for Israel and $20 billion for border security). All of the Senate Republicans, even those who have previously supported Ukraine funding, voted to filibuster the bill. Their stated position: They won’t provide a penny for Ukraine unless Democrats agree to a sweeping, draconian overhaul of the United States’ immigration laws.

I’m sorry, that’s not how a serious political party — or a serious country — behaves during a world crisis. It’s like saying to President Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1941: We won’t support aid to Britain as it battles the Nazis unless Democrats repeal the Social Security Act or rewrite the labor laws.

Of course, most Republicans in those days were opposed to aiding Britain: A majority of Republicans in both houses voted against the Lend-Lease Act, enacted in early 1941, which allowed the U.S. government to provide critically needed war supplies to Britain and other nations deemed “vital to the defense of the United States” without demanding payment in cash. Thank goodness that in those days both houses were controlled by Democrats — and Senate rules did not require a 60-vote supermajority to get anything done.

Most Republicans abandoned their isolationism after the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor on Dec. 7, 1941. The GOP commitment to internationalism was renewed after 1945 because of postwar Soviet aggression and then, after the end of the Cold War, by the 9/11 terrorist attacks. But since the end of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, Republicans have been increasingly returning to their pre-Pearl Harbor roots.

The party’s leader, former president Donald Trump, has even embraced the “America First” slogan used by the original isolationists. And, just as so many of the 1930s isolationists, such as Charles Lindbergh, were sympathetic to Nazi Germany, Trump is sympathetic to Vladimir Putin’s Russia. Public opinion surveys have reflected a sharp drop-off in Republican support for Ukraine: In a Gallup poll published on Nov. 2, 62 percent of Republicans said the United States was doing too much to aid Ukraine, up from 50 percent in June.

Yet I confess that, until last week, I had remained naively hopeful that Congress would still do the right thing. After all, strong majorities in both houses had supported Ukraine funding bills in the past. Moreover, the current aid request is a pittance in the context of a $6.1 trillion federal budget (0.98 percent, to be exact), and most of the funds would be spent in the United States to support our own defense industry.

The new House speaker, Mike Johnson (R-La.), had initially voted for Ukraine aid before turning against it, but in recent weeks he sounded much more supportive of Ukraine, saying, “We can’t allow Vladimir Putin to march through Europe and we understand the necessity of assisting there.” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), whose father was a U.S. Army soldier in Europe during World War II, has been a staunch supporter of Ukraine. “Honestly, I think Ronald Reagan would turn over in his grave if he saw we were not going to help Ukraine,” he said last month.

Yet now both leaders have taken the position that — as Johnson wrote this week — “supplemental Ukraine funding is dependent upon enactment of transformative change to our nation’s border security laws.” Good luck with that. The last time Congress enacted a major, bipartisan immigration bill was in 1986, when Reagan was in the White House. Lawmakers from both parties have been laboring for decades to craft another major bill. A decade ago, the bipartisan “Gang of Eight” thought they were close, only to have the deal fall apart. So it’s hard to take Republicans at face value when they insist on making aid to Ukraine dependent on breaking through decades of legislative logjams on immigration.

Why are they linking the two? The excuse heard from Republicans is that they can’t in good conscience support funding to defend Ukraine’s borders when our own borders are so insecure. They think that by invoking the common word “borders” they can pretend that the United States and Ukraine are in analogous situations. That would be true only if the Mexican Army were invading the southwestern United States to annex Arizona, New Mexico and Texas while announcing plans to march on Washington and destroy the United States as a sovereign country.

Needless to say, that hasn’t happened. What is happening is that millions of desperate immigrants are trying to enter the United States, legally and illegally, in pursuit of freedom and economic opportunity, just like the ancestors of most native-born Americans. The spike in undocumented immigration is a serious problem that needs to be addressed, but it can hardly be said to threaten the United States’ survival in the same way the Russian invasion threatens Ukraine’s.

By linking the two issues, Republicans are engaging in a bait-and-switch that gives them an excuse to do what their base wants — abandon Ukraine — while trying to blame Democrats for “jeopardizing security around the world,” as McConnell has charged.

As Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) told the New York Times: “You can’t say ‘I’m for Ukraine, but only if I get this wholly unrelated policy enacted.’ You can’t be for stopping Putin from taking over a country by force and then vote against providing Ukraine the resources to do just that.”

It is still possible that Democrats and Republicans will reach agreement on Ukraine funding. But the odds of Ukraine aid being approved look dimmer today than at any point since the Russian invasion, even as the Office of Management and Budget warns that U.S. support for Kyiv is running out: “We are out of money — and nearly out of time.”

Ukrainians will fight on regardless, and they will look for help to Europe, which has already committed twice as much funding as the United States. But, even working together, Europe and the United States have struggled to keep up with Ukraine’s need for ammunition. There is no way that Europe alone can carry the whole load, especially not when Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban — MAGA Republicans’ favorite foreign leader — is trying to block a $55 billion European Union aid package for Ukraine.

The United States has abandoned allies, such as South Vietnam and Afghanistan, before. But this time the costs of support are much lower (no U.S. soldiers are engaged in combat in Ukraine), and the stakes are far higher. Ukraine is fighting the largest war that Europe has seen since 1945. If it loses, Vladimir Putin may be emboldened to attack other neighboring states, such as the Baltic republics and even Poland, which are members of NATO. Other despots may be emboldened to aggression of their own, beginning with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Taiwan. And then we really will be back to the pre-Pearl Harbor world — all thanks to the Republican Party returning to its isolationist roots.

Unless Congress reverses course, and soon, it could be consigning our democratic allies to slaughter — and making the world a far more dangerous place.

The Washington Post · by Max Boot · December 8, 2023

8. Opinion: Why university presidents are under fire | CNN

Excerpts:

Having gone so far down the ideological path, these universities and these presidents cannot make the case clearly that at the center of a university is the free expression of ideas and that while harassment and intimidation would not be tolerated, offensive speech would and should be protected. As CNN’s Van Jones has eloquently said, the point of college is to keep you physically safe but intellectually unsafe, to force you to confront ideas that you disagree with passionately.

What we saw in the House hearing this week was the inevitable result of decades of the politicization of universities. America’s top colleges are no longer seen as bastions of excellence but as partisan outfits, which means they will keep getting buffeted by these political storms as they emerge. They should abandon this long misadventure into politics, retrain their gaze on their core strengths and rebuild their reputations as centers of research and learning.

Opinion: Why university presidents are under fire | CNN

CNN · by Fareed Zakaria · December 8, 2023

Deutch to colleges: Do more than condemn antisemitism

05:26 - Source: CNN

Editor’s Note: Fareed Zakaria hosts “Fareed Zakaria GPS,” airing at 10 a.m. and 1 p.m. ET Sundays on CNN. The views expressed here are his own. Read more opinion at CNN.

CNN —

When one thinks of America’s greatest strengths, the kind of assets the world looks at with admiration and envy, America’s elite universities would have long been at the top of that list. But the American public has been losing faith in these universities – and with good reason.

Three university presidents came under fire this week for their vague and indecisive answers when asked whether calling for the genocide of Jews would violate their institution’s code of conduct. But to understand their performance we have to understand the shift that has taken place at elite universities, which have gone from centers of excellence to institutions pushing political agendas.

Harvard University President Claudine Gay delivers an opening statement as she attends a House hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC, on December 5.

Ken Cedeno/Reuters

Opinion: My students aren’t debating ‘genocide,’ they’re looking for the freedom to learn

People sense the transformation. As Paul Tough has pointed out, the share of young adults who said a college degree was very important fell from 74% in 2013 to 41% in 2019. In 2018, 61% of Americans said higher education was headed in the wrong direction, and only 38% felt it was on the right track. In 2016, 70% of America’s high school graduates were headed for college. Now that number is 62%. This souring on higher education makes America an outlier among all advanced nations.

American universities have been neglecting excellence in order to pursue a variety of agendas — many of them clustered around diversity and inclusion. It started with the best of intentions. Colleges wanted to make sure young people of all backgrounds had access to higher education and felt comfortable on campus. But those good intentions have morphed into a dogmatic ideology and turned these universities into places where the pervasive goals are political and social engineering, not academic merit.

As the evidence produced for the recent Supreme Court case on affirmative action showed, universities have systematically downplayed the merit-based criteria for admissions in favor of racial quotas. Some universities’ response to this ruling seems to be that they will go further down this path, eliminating the requirement for any standardized test like the SAT. That move would allow them to take students with little reference to objective criteria. (Those who will suffer most will be bright students from poor backgrounds, who normally use tests like the SAT to demonstrate their qualifications.)

Pro-Palestinian students take part in a protest in support of the Palestinians amid the ongoing conflict in Gaza, at Columbia University in New York City, U.S., October 12, 2023. REUTERS/Jeenah Moon

Jeenah Moon/Reuters

Opinion: Why student protests against Israel are so painful, polarizing and complicated

In the humanities, hiring for new academic positions now appears to center on the race and gender of the applicant, as well as the subject matter, which needs to be about marginalized groups. Based on conversations with dozens of academics, my impression is that today a White man studying the US presidency does not have a prayer of getting tenure at a major history department in America. Grade inflation in the humanities is rampant. At Yale College, the median grade is now an A. New subjects crop up that are really political agendas, not academic fields. You can now major in diversity, equity and inclusion at some colleges.

The ever-growing bureaucracy devoted to diversity, equity and inclusion naturally recommends that more time and energy be spent on these issues. The most obvious lack of diversity at universities, political diversity, which clearly affects their ability to analyze many issues, is not addressed, showing that these goals are not centrally related to achieving, building or sustaining excellence.

Long Beach, CA - October 10: Long Beach, CA - October 10: LA F.U.E.R.Z.A, a student-run advocacy group, marched through the campus of CSU Long Beach for a Day of Resistance protest for Palestine in Long Beach on Tuesday, October 10, 2023. The majority of participants wore face coverings and refused to speak with media but they did periodically stop and give speeches. (Photo by Brittany Murray/MediaNews Group/Long Beach Press-Telegram via Getty Images)

Brittany Murray/MediaNews Group/Long Beach Press-Telegram/Getty Images

Opinion: For students and scholars, words matter. That’s why this is so appalling

Out of this culture of diversity has grown the collection of ideas and practices that we have all now heard of — safe spaces, trigger warnings, and micro aggressions. As authors Jonathan Haidt and Greg Lukianoff have discussed, many of these colleges have instituted speech codes that make it a violation of university rules to say things that some groups might find offensive. Universities advise students not to speak, act, even dress in ways that might cause offense to minority groups.

With this culture of virtue signaling growing, the George Floyd protests erupted, and many universities latched on and issued statements, effectively aligning their institutions with these protests. By my memory, few took such steps even after 9/11 or during the Iraq War.

In this context, it is understandable that Jewish groups would wonder, why do safe spaces, micro aggressions, and hate speech not apply to us? If universities can take positions against free speech to make some groups feel safe, why not us? Having coddled so many student groups for so long, university administrators found themselves squirming, unable to explain why certain groups (Jews, Asians) don’t seem to count in these conversations.

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Having gone so far down the ideological path, these universities and these presidents cannot make the case clearly that at the center of a university is the free expression of ideas and that while harassment and intimidation would not be tolerated, offensive speech would and should be protected. As CNN’s Van Jones has eloquently said, the point of college is to keep you physically safe but intellectually unsafe, to force you to confront ideas that you disagree with passionately.

What we saw in the House hearing this week was the inevitable result of decades of the politicization of universities. America’s top colleges are no longer seen as bastions of excellence but as partisan outfits, which means they will keep getting buffeted by these political storms as they emerge. They should abandon this long misadventure into politics, retrain their gaze on their core strengths and rebuild their reputations as centers of research and learning.

CNN · by Fareed Zakaria · December 8, 2023

9. Out of the hills: The war is coming to Myanmar

We have seen the various Burma insurgent movements pass through the first two phases of a protracted war process, the latent or incipient stage and now the guerrilla warfare or stalemate phase. Will it advance to the war of movement stage that will include fighting in cities?

What foreign interference? Save for some international NGOs there does not seem to be much assistance to the insurgent groups.

In a brief moment of candor, Min Aung Hlaing acknowledged some battlefield setbacks, blaming foreign interference.

Excerpts:

The military has responded to these attacks, with a series of raids and arrests of youth. RFA has reported that some 50 youth had been abducted from Yangon townships in recent weeks.

In short, the war is coming to the cities. With each week, there will be more assassinations, more drone attacks, and more bombings that target security forces and symbols of military rule.

This will shatter any false pretense that the military is still in control and empower more civil disobedience. It’s no wonder that Min Aung Hlaing has suddenly called for a political solution, before it all comes crashing down.

Out of the hills: The war is coming to Myanmar

Expect more assassinations, drone attacks, and bombings that target security forces and symbols of military rule.

A commentary by Zachary Abuza

2023.12.09

rfa.org

Operation 1027, launched on Oct. 27 by the Three Brotherhood Alliance, has led to coordinated attacks throughout Myanmar and seen the fall of 20 towns and over 300 military posts. But violence is now starting to spread to the cities, a strategic tipping point.

Since that offensive against the military in northern Shan state by the alliance – the Arakan Army (AA), the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) – members and others are expanding the battle front against the military junta.

In the east, Karenni forces launched Operation 1111 and now control nearly 80% of Kayah state. They are now fighting in the capital Loikaw.

In this Kokang online media provided photo, fighters of Three Brotherhood Alliance check an artillery gun, claimed to have been seized from Myanmar junta outpost on a hill in Hsenwi township, Shan state on Nov. 24, 2023. (The Kokang online media via AP)

In western Myanmar, the Arakan Army ended its cease-fire in Rakhine state, and have taken major bases, while Chin forces have made significant inroads along the Indian border and claim to have established civil administration in 70% of the state.

The MNDAA has begun its assault on Laukkaing, the capital of the Kokang region.

Karen forces in Kayin State have taken over parts of the main road to the Thai border, greatly restricting border trade.

On Dec. 3, the opposition National Unity Government announced the establishment of civil administration in Kawlin town in the war-torn Sagaing region, the first township capital to fall to the opposition.

The military that took power in a Feb. 2021 coup is increasingly constrained to a diminishing share of the Bamar heartland. But even that is starting to slip away.

On Dec. 3, the KNLA and local PDFs took over Mone, the first town to fall in Bago state. Some 17 soldiers surrendered with their weapons. More importantly, the opposition is getting within striking distance of Highway 1 that connects Yangon and Naypyidaw.

Military escalation

The military has responded with an escalation in the number of long-range artillery and aerial bombing, both of which have resulted in increased civilian casualties. On Dec. 3, the NUG's Ministry of Human Rights released details on SAC attacks on civilians, documenting 84 airstrikes, and 112 artillery strikes that resulted in the death of 244 civilians.

Such attacks will continue as the military has neither sufficient number of troops to retake lost territory, nor sufficient means to move troops. One cannot control territory from the air.

In a brief moment of candor, Min Aung Hlaing acknowledged some battlefield setbacks, blaming foreign interference.

While there have been significant opposition gains in the countryside, within the cocoons of Mandalay and Yangon, the military regime has gone to great lengths to project a sense of normalcy, so that the population will acquiesce to military rule. Restaurants and bars are open, life goes on.

A woman looks through debris in the aftermath of a junta strike on a camp for displaced people near Laiza, northern Myanmar on Oct. 11, 2023. Junta has escalated long range artillery and aerial bombing, both of which have resulted in the increased civilian casualties. (AFP photo)

Reports from the ground suggest that the military is building up its defenses in Naypyidaw, Yangon, and Mandalay, with increasing shows of force and patrols of armored vehicles.

Naypyidaw is already a fortress city that will be hard to attack. But the recent capture of heavy artillery and multiple launch rocket systems should give opposition forces the ability to now target the city.

Likewise, greater proximity will allow the small drones and quadcopters that the opposition has used to drop mortar shells the ability to strike targets. Even symbolic strikes in Naypyidaw would sew fear amongst regime loyalists, undermine morale, and sap the will to resist.

More urban attacks

That is now changing, with more attacks by opposition People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) in the cities in the past month.

The most notable recent attack was the Dec. 1 assassination of the chairman of the pro-military New National Democracy Party, Than Tun. He had been a National League for Democracy (NLD) member before defecting to a pro-military party that was established by a senior advisor to the State Administrative Council (SAC). the junta’s formal name.

These assassinations are meant to convey good operational intelligence on the part of the PDFs, and at the same time, serve as a warning that if they can hit someone so close to the SAC, then the military is unable to protect anyone.

Myanmar's military junta soldiers on a truck patrol in Yangon, Dec. 4, 2023. Reports from the ground suggest that the military is building up its defenses in Naypyidaw, Yangon, and Mandalay, with increasing shows of force and patrols of armed vehicles. (AFP photo)

There have been many assassinations in the past, including the assassination of the chief financial officer of the military owned telecom firm MyTel, and an attack on the current governor of the Central Bank of Myanmar, which wounded her.

But the military understands the importance of maintaining a sense of security in the cities. There's always been violence in the borderlands, but once violence hit Yangon and Mandalay, people questioned the military's hold on power.

To that end, they began deploying Chinese-made CCTV cameras with artificial intelligence. Urban guerrilla networks that were active in 2022, were systematically taken apart. The arrest and torture of one member, often led to the rest of entire cells.

This means that the return of urban guerrillas is an important milestone that demonstrates both a decline in the military's control over the cities, and the growing confidence of the PDFs to conduct operations.

Yangon sees PDF attacks

There has been a string of attacks in greater Yangon in the past few weeks. A PDF attacked soldiers guarding the state-owned Electric Power Cooperation Department in both North Okkalapa and South Okkalapa Townships on Nov. 23 and 24, respectively.

On Nov. 29, PDFs attacked a compound of the military-owned conglomerate, Myanma Economic Holdings Ltd, in Yangon’s Insein Township. This was an important symbolic target, as the conglomerate is one of the most important sources of revenue for the military.

On Nov. 30, local PDFs used drones to drop bombs on a police station and two military posts in Yangon, while PDFs in North Okkalapa Township bombed forces encamped at a local high school. There have been bombings, more recently, in Dagon township.

Displaced people rest as fighting renewed between Myanmar's junta and the Arakan fighters in Pauktaw Township in Rakhine state on Nov. 19, 2023. The Arakan Army ended the cease-fire in Rakhine state and have taken major junta bases. (AFP photo)

PDFs set off two bombs at a police post in Yangon’s Thingangyun township on Dec. 4.

The military has responded to these attacks, with a series of raids and arrests of youth. RFA has reported that some 50 youth had been abducted from Yangon townships in recent weeks.

In short, the war is coming to the cities. With each week, there will be more assassinations, more drone attacks, and more bombings that target security forces and symbols of military rule.

This will shatter any false pretense that the military is still in control and empower more civil disobedience. It’s no wonder that Min Aung Hlaing has suddenly called for a political solution, before it all comes crashing down.

Zachary Abuza is a professor at the National War College in Washington and an adjunct at Georgetown University. The views expressed here are his own and do not reflect the position of the U.S. Department of Defense, the National War College, Georgetown University or Radio Free Asia.

rfa.org

10. Israel Is Losing this War

Excerpts:

Israel’s campaign will leave Hamas’s military capacity diminished. But even if it were to kill the organization’s top leaders (as it has done previously), Israel’s response to October 7 is affirming Hamas’s message and its standing among Palestinians across the region and beyond. Large protests in Jordan with pro-Hamas chants, for instance, are unprecedented. It requires no approval or support of the Hamas actions of October 7 to acknowledge the enduring appeal of a movement that seems capable of making Israel pay some kind of a price for the violence it visits upon Palestinians every day, every year, generation after generation.

History also suggests a pattern in which representatives of movements dismissed as “terrorist” by their adversaries—in South Africa, say, or Ireland—nonetheless appear at the negotiating table when the time comes to seek political solutions. It would be ahistorical to bet against Hamas, or at least some version of the political-ideological current it represents, doing the same if and when a political solution between Israel and the Palestinians is revisited with seriousness.

What comes after the horrific violence is far from clear, but Hamas’s October 7 attack has forced a reset of a political contest to which Israel appears unwilling to respond beyond devastating military force against Palestinian civilians. And as things stand eight weeks into the vengeance, Israel can’t be said to be winning.

Israel Is Losing this War

Despite the violence it has unleashed on Palestinians, Israel is failing to achieve its political goals.

TONY KARON and DANIEL LEVY

The Nation · by Tony Karon · December 8, 2023

Twenty years ago, former Knesset Speaker Avrum Burg warned of the inevitability of violent backlash. “It turns out that the 2,000-year struggle for Jewish survival comes down to a state of settlements, run by an amoral clique of corrupt lawbreakers who are deaf both to their citizens and to their enemies. A state lacking justice cannot survive,” he wrote in The International Herald Tribune.

Even if the Arabs lower their heads and swallow their shame and anger forever, it won’t work. A structure built on human callousness will inevitably collapse in on itself.… Israel, having ceased to care about the children of the Palestinians, should not be surprised when they come washed in hatred and blow themselves up in the centers of Israeli escapism.

Israel could kill 1,000 Hamas men a day and solve nothing, Burg warned, because Israel’s own violent actions would be the source of a replenishing of their ranks. His warnings have been ignored, even as they’ve been vindicated many times over. That same logic is now playing out on steroids in the destruction being visited on Gaza. The grinding structural violence Israel expected Palestinians to suffer in silence meant that Israeli security was always illusory.

The weeks since October 7 have affirmed that there can be no return to the status quo ante. This was likely Hamas’s goal in staging its deadly attacks. And even prior to this, many in Israel’s leadership were openly calling for the completion of the Nakba, the ethnic cleansing of Palestine; now those voices have been amplified.

Late November’s mutually agreed humanitarian pause saw Hamas release some hostages in exchange for Palestinians held in Israeli jails and an increase in humanitarian supplies entering Gaza. When Israel resumed its military onslaught and Hamas returned to launching rockets, it was clear that Hamas has not been militarily defeated. The mass slaughter and destruction Israel has wrought in Gaza suggests an intention to make the territory uninhabitable for the 2.2 million Palestinians who live there—and to push for expulsion via a militarily engineered humanitarian catastrophe. Indeed, the IDF’s own estimate is that it has so far eliminated less than 15 percent of Hamas’s fighting force. This in a campaign that has killed more than 21,000 Palestinians, mostly civilians, 8,600 of them children.

October 7 and Palestinian politics

Israel’s military will almost certainly oust Hamas from governing Gaza. But analysts such as Tareq Baconi, who has studied the movement and its thinking over the past two decades, argue that it has sought for quite some time to break out of the shackles of governing a territory sectioned off from the rest of Palestine, on terms set by the occupying power.

Hamas has long shown a desire to break out of its Gaza governance role, from the mass unarmed March of Return protests in 2018 violently suppressed by Israeli sniper fire to efforts thwarted by the United States and Israel to transfer governance of Gaza to either a reformed Palestinian Authority, agreed-upon technocrats, or an elected government, while it focused on refocusing Palestinian politics in both Gaza and the West Bank on resistance to, rather than custodianship of, the occupation status quo. If a consequence of its attack were losing the responsibility for governing Gaza, Hamas might see that as advantageous.

Hamas has tried to nudge Fatah onto a similar path, urging the ruling party in the West Bank to end Palestinian Authority (PA) security collaboration with Israel and more directly confront the occupation. Losing municipal control of Gaza is therefore far from a decisive defeat for Hamas’s war effort: For a movement dedicated to liberating Palestinian lands, governing Gaza had begun to look like a dead end, much as permanent limited self-governance in discontiguous islands of the West Bank has been for Fatah.

Hamas, Baconi says, likely felt compelled to take a high-stakes gamble to shatter a status quo it deemed a slow death for Palestine. “All this still does not mean that Hamas’s strategic shift will be deemed successful in the long run,” he wrote in Foreign Policy.

Hamas’s violent disruption of the status quo might well have provided Israel with an opportunity to carry out another Nakba. This might result in a regional conflagration or deal Palestinians a blow that could take a generation to recover from. What is certain, however, is that there is no return to what existed before.

Hamas’s gambit, then, may have been to sacrifice municipal governance of a besieged Gaza to cement its status as a national resistance organization. Hamas is not trying to bury Fatah: The various unity agreements between Hamas and Fatah, particularly those led by prisoners of both factions, demonstrate that Hamas seeks a united front. The PA is unable to protect West Bank Palestinians from the increasing violence of Israeli settlements and entrenched control, let alone to meaningfully respond to the bloodshed in Gaza. Under the cover of Western backing on Gaza, Israel has killed hundreds of Palestinians, arrested thousands, and displaced entire villages on the West Bank, all the while escalating its state-sponsored settler attacks. In so doing, Israel has further undermined Fatah among the population and pushed it in the direction of Hamas.

For years, settlers protected by the IDF have attacked Palestinian villages with the aim of forcing their residents to leave and tightening Israel’s illegal grip on the occupied territory—but the expansion of this since October 7 is causing even Israel’s US accomplices to blanche. Biden’s threat of visa bans against settlers involved in violence against West Bank Palestinians is an evasion: Those settlers are far from individual rogue actors; they are armed by the state and aggressively protected by the IDF and the Israeli legal system, because they are implementing a state policy. But even Biden’s miscast threat makes clear that Israel is at odds with his administration.

Hamas has a pan-Palestinian perspective, not a Gaza-specific one, and so it intended October 7 to have transformative effects across Palestine. During the 2021 “Unity Intifada” that sought to connect the struggles of Palestinians in both the West Bank and Gaza with those inside Israel, Hamas took actions in support of that goal. Now, the Israeli state is accelerating that connection with a paranoid campaign of repression against any expression of dissent from among its Palestinian citizens. Hundreds of Palestinians in the West Bank have been detained, including activists and teens posting on Facebook. Israel is all too aware of the potential for escalation in the West Bank. In that sense, the Israeli response has only brought the people of the West Bank and Gaza closer.

It’s clear Israel never intended to accept a sovereign Palestinian state anywhere west of the Jordan River. Instead, Israel is intensifying long-standing plans for securing its control of the territory. That and growing Israeli encroachment into the Al Aqsa Mosque are a reminder that Israel is actively fueling whatever uprising follows in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and even within the ’67 lines.

Ironically, then, the US insistence on the Palestinian Authority’s being put in control of Gaza after Israel’s war of devastation—and its belated, feeble warnings over settler violence—reinforces the idea of the West Bank and Gaza being a single entity. Israel’s 17-year policy of cleaving a pliant West Bank run by a co-opted PA from a “terrorist-run Gaza” has failed.

Israel after October 7

The Hamas-led raid punctured myths of Israeli invincibility and its citizens’ expectation of tranquility even as the state chokes the life out of Palestinians. Just weeks earlier, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was boasting that Israel had successfully “managed” the conflict to the point that Palestine no longer featured on his map of a “new Middle East.” With the Abraham Accords and other alliances, some Arab leaders were embracing Israel. The US was promoting the plan, with Presidents Donald Trump and Joe Biden both focused on “normalization” with Arab regimes that were willing to leave the Palestinians subject to ever-tightening Israeli apartheid. October 7 served up a brutal reminder that this was untenable, and that Palestinians’ resistance constitutes a form of veto power over the efforts of others to determine their fate.

It’s too soon to measure the impact of October 7 on Israeli domestic politics. It has made Israelis more hawkish, but at the same time more distrustful of their national leadership after the colossal failure of intelligence and response. It took significant mass mobilization against the government by the families of Israelis held captive in Gaza to achieve a pause in military action and secure a hostage-release deal. Dramatic, high-profile internal dissent over the hostages and what’s required of Israel to secure their return could raise pressure for further release deals and even a full-blown cease-fire, despite a determination to continue the war among much of the political and military leadership. Israeli public opinion remains confused, angry, and unpredictable.

Then there’s the war’s impact on Israel’s economy, whose growth model is based on attracting high levels of foreign direct investment to its tech sector and other export industries. Last year’s social protest and uncertainty over the constitutional fracas was already being cited as a reason for the 68 percent year-on-year drop in FDI reported over the summer. Israel’s war, for which 360,000 reservists have been mobilized, adds a new level of shock. Economist Adam Tooze wrote in his Substack:

The tech lobby in Israel estimates that a tenth of its workforce has been mobilized. Construction is paralyzed by the quarantining of the Palestinian workforce in the West Bank. Consumption of services has collapsed as people stay away from restaurants and public gatherings are limited. Credit card records suggest that private consumption in Israel fell by nearly a third in the days after the war broke out. Spending on leisure and entertainment crashed by 70%. Tourism, a mainstay of the Israeli economy, has come to an abrupt halt. Flights are canceled and shipping cargo diverted. Offshore the Israeli government ordered Chevron to halt production at the Tamar natural gas field, costing Israel $200 million a month in lost revenue.

Israel is a wealthy country with the resources to weather some of this storm, but with its wealth comes fragility—and it has much to lose.

Gaza after October 7

Israeli forces have poured into Gaza with a battle plan, but no clear war plan for Gaza after their invasion. Some Israeli military leaders aim to maintain “security control” of the sort they enjoy in the PA’s West Bank domain. In Gaza, this would pit it against a better-drilled insurgency supported by most of the population. Many in Israeli government circles advocate forcibly displacing much of Gaza’s civilian population into Egypt, by engineering a humanitarian crisis that makes Gaza unlivable. The US has said it has ruled that out, but no smart gambler would discount the possibility of the Israelis’ seeking forgiveness rather than permission for more mass-scale ethnic cleansing in line with Israel’s long-term demographic goals of reducing the Palestinian population between the river and the sea.

US officials have reached for the prayer books of yore, speaking hopefully of putting 88-year-old Mahmoud Abbas, the head of PA, back in charge of Gaza, with the promise of some renewed pursuit of the chimeric “two-state solution.” But the PA has no credibility even in the West Bank because of its acquiescence to Israel’s ever-expanding occupation. Then, there’s the reality that preventing genuine Palestinian sovereignty in any part of historic Palestine has long been a point of consensus in the Israeli leadership across most of the Zionist political spectrum. And Israel’s leaders have no need to abide by the expectations of a US administration that may well be voted out next year. And they have a proven ability to wag the dog even if Biden were reelected. The US has chosen to ride shotgun in Israel’s war machine, whose destination may not be clear, but it’s certainly not any kind of Palestinian state.

The global impact of October 7

Israel and the United States may have convinced themselves that the world has “moved on” from the Palestinian plight, but the energies unleashed by the events since October 7 suggest that the opposite is true. Calls for solidarity with Palestine have echoed along the streets of the Arab world, serving in some countries as a coded language of dissent against decrepit authoritarianism. Across the Global South and in the cities of the West, Palestine now occupies a symbolic place as an avatar of rebellion against Western hypocrisy and an unjust postcolonial order. Not since the illegal US-led invasion of Iraq have so many millions around the world taken to the streets to protest. Organized labor has flexed its internationalist muscles to challenge arms deliveries to Israel and reminded itself of its power to change history, and legal mechanisms such as the International Criminal Court, the International Court of Justice, and even US and European courts are being used to challenge government policies that enable Israel’s war crimes.

Panicked by a world aghast at its actions in Gaza, Israel and its advocates have reverted to charges of antisemitism against those who would challenge Israel’s brutality—but everything from the mass marches to the vocal Jewish opposition to the opinion surveys on Biden’s handling of the crisis indicate that equating solidarity with antisemitism is not only factually wrong; it is unconvincing.

Several countries in Latin America and Africa have symbolically cut ties, and the deliberate bombing of a civilian population and preventing access to shelter, food, water, and medical care has left even many of Israel’s allies aghast. The extent of violence the West is willing to countenance against a captive people in Gaza offers the Global South a stark reminder of accounts unsettled with the imperial West. And when French President Emmanuel Macron and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau publicly implore Israel to stop “bombing babies,” Israel is in danger of losing even parts of the West. It has become difficult in the short term for Arab and Muslim countries to maintain, much less expand public ties.

Yoking itself to Israel’s response to October 7 has also burst the bubble on US fantasies of reclaiming hegemony in the Global South under a “we’re the good guys” rubric. The contrast between its response to Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestinian crises respectively has produced a consensus that there is hypocrisy at the very heart of US foreign policy, producing such extraordinary spectacles as Biden being castigated, face-to-face at an APEC Summit, by Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim for his failure to stand up against Israel’s atrocities

Ibrahim specifically warned that Biden’s response to Gaza had raised a serious trust deficit with those the United States hopes to court as allies in its competition with Russia and China. Having demonstrated to Arab allies that their Washington patron will side with Israel, even when it is bombing Arab civilians, will likely reinforce the trend of Global South states diversifying their geopolitical portfolios.

The political question

By shattering a status quo that Palestinians find intolerable, Hamas has put politics back on the agenda. Israel has significant military power, but it is politically weak. Much of the US establishment supporting Israel’s war assumes that violence emanating from an oppressed community can be stamped out by applying overwhelming military force against that community. But even Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin signaled skepticism over that premise, warning that Israel’s attacks killing thousands of civilians risked driving “them into the arms of the enemy [and replacing] a tactical victory with a strategic defeat.”

Western politicians and media like to fantasize that Hamas is an ISIS-style nihilistic cadre holding Palestinian society hostage; Hamas is, in fact, a multifaceted political movement rooted in the fabric and national aspirations of Palestinian society. It embodies a belief, grimly affirmed by decades of Palestinian experience, that armed resistance is central to the Palestinian liberation project because of the failures of the Oslo process and the intractable hostility of its adversary. And its influence and popularity have grown as Israel and its allies keep thwarting a peace process and other nonviolent strategies for pursuing Palestinian liberation.

Israel’s campaign will leave Hamas’s military capacity diminished. But even if it were to kill the organization’s top leaders (as it has done previously), Israel’s response to October 7 is affirming Hamas’s message and its standing among Palestinians across the region and beyond. Large protests in Jordan with pro-Hamas chants, for instance, are unprecedented. It requires no approval or support of the Hamas actions of October 7 to acknowledge the enduring appeal of a movement that seems capable of making Israel pay some kind of a price for the violence it visits upon Palestinians every day, every year, generation after generation.

History also suggests a pattern in which representatives of movements dismissed as “terrorist” by their adversaries—in South Africa, say, or Ireland—nonetheless appear at the negotiating table when the time comes to seek political solutions. It would be ahistorical to bet against Hamas, or at least some version of the political-ideological current it represents, doing the same if and when a political solution between Israel and the Palestinians is revisited with seriousness.

What comes after the horrific violence is far from clear, but Hamas’s October 7 attack has forced a reset of a political contest to which Israel appears unwilling to respond beyond devastating military force against Palestinian civilians. And as things stand eight weeks into the vengeance, Israel can’t be said to be winning.

Tony Karon

Tony Karon is the editorial lead of Al Jazeera’s AJ+, a former senior editor at Time magazine, and was an activist in the anti-apartheid liberation movement in his native South Africa.

Daniel Levy

Daniel Levy is the president of the U.S./Middle East Project and a former Israeli negotiator with the Palestinians at Taba under prime minister Ehud Barak and at Oslo B under prime minister Yitzhak Rabin.

The Nation · by Tony Karon · December 8, 2023

11. How a factory city in Wisconsin fed military-grade weapons to a Mexican cartel

A long read. It seems that at least one "unit" likes the SCAR. (note sarcasm)

A REUTERS SPECIAL REPORT

How a factory city in Wisconsin fed military-grade weapons to a Mexican cartel

A single sniper rifle led investigators to a syndicate deep in the United States that armed Mexico’s fentanyl-trafficking Jalisco New Generation Cartel.

https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/mexico-usa-guns/?utm

By SARAH KINOSIAN Filed Dec. 9, 2023, 11 a.m. GMT

Racine, Wisconsin is best known for factories, farming, and an extravagant televised prom celebration.

But in 2018, Racine’s suburban sprawl on the edge of Lake Michigan became a source of high caliber weapons for one of Mexico’s top fentanyl trafficking gangs, the Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG), U.S. federal arms-trafficking investigators allege.

The cartel exploited permissive federal and state-level gun control rules to buy some of the most powerful weapons available to American civilians, according to two former agents with the U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) and two other sources, all with knowledge of the investigation.

Members of a local family, working with a cousin in Mexico, enlisted friends and relatives who bought guns on their behalf in Racine and transported them to California and south across the border, according to an indictment from Wisconsin’s Eastern District Court unsealed in February.

PODCAST: REUTERS WORLD NEWS

1. Listen now: A reporter’s journey tracing gun trafficking from Wisconsin to Mexico

Their clients included a hit squad reporting to CJNG leader Nemesio Oseguera, better known as “El Mencho,” according to Chris Demlein, one of the former ATF agents.

The Racine case unlocked “the most prolific CJNG firearms trafficking network ever discovered,” said Demlein, who until 2021 served as a senior special agent with ATF and oversaw a multi-agency arms trafficking project that coordinated dozens of investigations.

The traffickers in Racine and two connected cells in other locations bought more than $600,000 of high-end military-style firearms in under a year, internal ATF documents reviewed by Reuters allege. It seemed like an unprecedented shopping spree, said Tim Sloan, the other former ATF investigator. Sloan was the first to trace a CJNG gun to Racine.

An employee shows a .50 caliber Barrett M107A1 semi-automatic rifle to Reuters at a gun store in Racine, Wisconsin where local residents sourced weapons to be smuggled to the CJNG cartel, according to a federal indictment. REUTERS/Brian Snyder

This account of the CJNG gun trafficking ring is based on a review of U.S. and Mexican law enforcement documents and interviews with two individuals alleged to have procured guns for the cartel as well as with eight current and former U.S. and Mexican officials. Reuters was able to chronicle the extent of the operation uncovered by ATF agents as they followed the trail of military-style guns back to the United States from the Mexican state of Jalisco, almost 2,000 miles away.

Racine was just the tip of the iceberg. The city was a key part of a CJNG firearms network that bought hundreds of guns from more than a dozen U.S. states, specializing in semi-automatic .50 caliber rifles and FN SCAR assault rifles designed for U.S. special forces, internal ATF reports obtained by Reuters allege.

ATF dubbed the Wisconsin case “Grin and Barrett,” after Barrett, a Tennessee-based weapons maker whose powerful .50 caliber firearms were among those trafficked by the network. Now a unit of Australia’s NIOA Group, Barrett did not respond to detailed requests for comment for this report.

ATF spokesperson Kristina Mastropasqua declined to comment on what she described as an open case. Mastropasqua said preventing cross-border firearms trafficking was an ATF priority and new powers had led to 250 people being charged since last year.

Commenting on this story’s findings, Alejandro Celorio, legal advisor to Mexico’s foreign ministry, said those involved in the U.S. firearms business should be more careful to “prevent their products from falling into the wrong hands.”

The Racine Mayor’s Office did not respond to a request for comment.

Reuters was unable to reach representatives for CJNG or Oseguera.

From North Carolina to Oregon, the CJNG network reached deep into the United States to find and buy heavier, rarer firearms, Sloan and Demlein said. Far from the border cities that are the usual sources of weapons for Mexico’s criminal groups, relaxed surveillance can make such weapons easier to buy in quantity, they said.

Overseeing much of the network was Mexican citizen Jesus Cisneros, according to ATF internal presentations that cited his intercepted communications with other suspects about moving .50 calibers and other firearms to Mexico. The Wisconsin indictment charged Cisneros and a local accomplice named Victor Cobian on multiple counts related to gun trafficking.

One internal ATF presentation cited more than 28 pending indictments related to the wider network. Reuters could not independently corroborate the status of the cases.

A spokesperson for the Eastern District of Wisconsin Attorney’s Office said they could only comment on public court records, adding those records suggested Cisneros was “the lead player” in the Wisconsin conspiracy.

$600,000

Value of high-end military-style firearms trafficked from Racine and two connected cells in under a year

Cisneros is believed to reside in Mexico, one of the sources with knowledge of the investigation said. The source requested anonymity to speak freely.

Cobian told Reuters in an interview that Cisneros was his cousin and lived in Jalisco. Cobian, who pleaded not guilty to gun-trafficking charges, denied involvement in or knowledge of the alleged trafficking scheme. Reuters was unable to locate or contact Cisneros or his representatives.

Mexican law enforcement agencies did not respond to inquiries about Cisneros but did acknowledge that Mexican authorities automatically freeze the accounts of individuals sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury. Cisneros was sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury in February.

The indictment charged Cisneros, Cobian and six other accomplices with felonies ranging from false statements to unlicensed gun dealing and smuggling. The alleged accomplices included Cobian’s sister and her fiance, who also entered not guilty pleas. A jury trial was set for May 6, 2024, court filings show.

Gun thirty-one

The existence of the wider Cisneros network and Wisconsin’s role in it may never have come to light had it not been for a single Barrett .50 caliber rifle picked up by police in a 2018 raid in Mexico’s second-largest city, Guadalajara, the state capital of Jalisco.

Sloan, ATF’s attache at the U.S. embassy in Mexico City at the time, called the weapon “the key” to the CJNG gun pipeline.

Weighing 30 pounds, Barrett .50 calibers are used by militaries around the world for their ability to rip through armored vehicles from over a mile away. They are among the most powerful weapons civilians can buy in the United States through licensed dealers and sell for around $9,000.

In Mexico, they are popular with organized criminal groups. CJNG uses .50 calibers to defend routes through which the U.S. Justice Department says thousands of tons of fentanyl and methamphetamine are shipped to U.S. consumers.

Members of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) pose for a photo at an undisclosed location in Michoacan state Mexico. One of the men bears the insignia of the Delta hit squad that reports to cartel leader Nemesio Oseguera and that U.S. federal investigators say received a gun that came from the Racine gun store. REUTERS/Stringer

The cartel’s highly-trained, uniformed squadrons have used the guns to down a police helicopter, to kill 13 policemen in an ambush, and in a failed hit on Mexico City’s top cop, Mexican and U.S. authorities say.

On May 21, 2018, gunmen from a CJNG hit squad known as Delta tried to kill a Jalisco government minister – who previously served as the state’s attorney general – in a brazen afternoon attack outside a Japanese restaurant near the city center.

A few weeks later, on June 9, a team of Mexican Federal Police investigating the attack gathered before dawn outside a Guadalajara cemetery, across from a two-story building used by Delta, detailed handwritten Federal Police records show.

Delta reports directly to CJNG head Oseguera, according to a cartel organization chart from Mexico’s National Guard, seen by Reuters. In 2021, a Mexican court convicted Delta gunmen for the Guadalajara attack.

Agents crept into the bright orange house through the garage. Moving upstairs, they found 36 weapons, including grenade launchers and nearly 8,000 rounds of ammunition, the police records said.

A Jalisco ballistics lab report seen by Reuters showed 27 of the firearms were traced to the United States. It did not establish if the weapons were used in the attack.

But one of them, a Barrett .50 caliber registered as Gun #31 in the report, led investigators to Wisconsin.

An injured woman lies on a stretcher after an ambush on a former prosecutor in Guadalajara, Mexico in 2018. The attack triggered an investigation that led police to a .50 caliber Barrett rifle that U.S. agents later traced to the Wisconsin gun store. REUTERS/Stringer

Shooters’ Sports Center

Sloan traced the weapon to Shooters’ Sports Center, a Racine gun shop, where a man called Elias Cobian picked it up on April 9, two months before the Guadalajara raid, according to ATF trace data and purchase records shown to Reuters by store employees.

Two days after Elias picked up the gun, on April 11, his brother Oswaldo Cobian picked up another .50 caliber, the records show. Oswaldo picked up another one a couple of months earlier. Shooters’ Sports Center declined to say how much the weapons had sold for.

The Cobian brothers are cousins of Victor Cobian, two family members told Reuters. ATF investigation documents reviewed by Reuters allege the cousins worked together closely to traffic weapons.

Victor’s older brother, Marco Cobian, said he was surprised when he heard early in 2018 that an associate of Elias and Oswaldo was going around asking people to buy guns.

Later, when Elias and Oswaldo got in trouble, it "all made sense,” said Marco, who lives in the Racine area and works construction.

One successful recruit was Elias and Oswaldo’s friend and coworker at an energy infrastructure company, a local man called Patrick Finnell.

The Shooters’ Sports Center, where Racine residents acquired .50 caliber Barrett semi-automatic rifles to be trafficked to the CJNG in Mexico, according to the federal indictment. The gun store says it does not condone the illegal movement of firearms. REUTERS/Brian Snyder

On July 10, Finnell walked out of Shooters’ Sports Center with another Barrett .50 caliber. In an interview, Finnell confirmed buying the weapon. The rifles bought by Finnell and the Cobian brothers were identified in the indictment as being picked up at the store to be trafficked into the arsenal of CJNG.

Finnell said in the interview he bought the weapon on behalf of the brothers, who he said told him the gun was going to Mexico, adding he thought “they were full of shit.” Finnell didn’t respond to follow-up interview requests.

The brothers and Finnell are not charged or named in the Wisconsin indictment, which connects the guns they picked up at Shooters’ Sports Center to three unidentified co-conspirators. Reuters was unable to locate or contact the brothers or their representatives for comment. The Wisconsin Eastern District Attorney said it could not comment on individuals not named in the indictment.

Shooters’ Sports Center was lucky to sell one Barrett .50 caliber in a normal year, employees said.

In just six months in 2018, the crew had picked up four from the store.

In Wisconsin, licensed dealers can legally sell multiple high-caliber semi-automatic rifles to adults. “We do not condone the illegal movement of firearms,” store owner Bernie Kupper said in an email. He said it was not unusual for people to refer friends and family to the store.

Finnell himself bought three more .50 calibers in the Racine area, the first source close to the investigation said. Finnell declined to either confirm or deny whether he bought more for the brothers, telling Reuters he would "rather leave that to the side.”

The rash of sales of .50 calibers caught the eye of Wisconsin agents from ATF’s field offices in Milwaukee, according to the first source, who requested anonymity to speak freely.

Over the next few months, the agents dug further.

Quarter of a million guns

In the past three years alone, Mexican authorities have seized 300 .50 calibers, a record, according to previously unpublished data collated by the Mexican attorney general’s office and seen by Reuters.

Once in Mexico, the gun's black market value increases to between $30,000 and $50,000, according to Demlein and Sloan.

The great majority of illegal guns in Mexico come from the United States, Mexican and U.S. authorities say. A 2013 University of San Diego study estimated a quarter of a million guns illegally cross the border each year.

Mexico, a country of 127 million people, has tight gun laws – and just a single gun store, located on a military base. By contrast, the United States has nearly 78,000 gun dealers – more than the combined number of McDonald’s, Burger King, Subway and Wendy’s franchises, according to gun-control advocates Everytown for Gun Safety.

A water tower stands over Racine. REUTERS/Brian Snyder

After Mexico launched its drug war in 2006, homicides tripled. Nearly 400,000 Mexicans have been killed, increasingly with firearms. According to Mexico City’s Ibero University, guns were responsible for nearly three quarters of murders last year.

Powerful weapons poured over the border after a U.S. ban on assault rifles expired in 2004, fueling an arms race between criminal groups and Mexican security forces, said Romain Le Cour, a violence researcher in Mexico.

“Cartels have become more militarized. Their firepower has shot up,” Le Cour said.

As well as tighter U.S. gun laws, Mexico needed to improve its own border security and intelligence on gun trafficking, he said. “They need a disarmament campaign and they need to target the black market.”

300

.50 caliber rifles seized by Mexican authorities in the past three years alone

In the United States, complex gun trafficking investigations that link together cases across multiple states are relatively rare. Compared to efforts to stop drugs moving north, until recently few laws or resources were dedicated to preventing guns moving into Mexico.

Mexican officials are vocal about this disparity at a time when some Republican Party politicians are calling for the U.S. government to send troops into Mexico or drop bombs on cartels as a plank for the 2024 election campaign. Hundreds of thousands of Americans have died from opioid overdoses in recent years.

“The financial, economic and military power of the Mexican cartels comes from the United States,” said Alfredo Femat, head of the Mexican lower house of Congress foreign relations committee. U.S. guns give drug cartels the “capacity to wage war” and Mexico pays a heavy human price, he added. Mexico expected the United States to do more to stem the flow of weapons, he said, while acknowledging Mexico should intensify its own efforts.

A flag that combines U.S. and Mexican emblems hangs outside a home in Racine. REUTERS/Brian Snyder

Mexico is suing nine major gun companies, including Barrett, for $10 billion in damages, arguing the availability of their weapons exacerbates the drug war’s carnage.

The companies argued in court that Mexico failed “to control cartel violence within its own borders.” A Boston court dismissed the case, saying federal law “unequivocally” bars lawsuits seeking to hold gun manufacturers responsible when people use guns for their intended purpose. Mexico has appealed. Barrett did not respond to questions from Reuters about the case.

The administration of U.S. President Joe Biden, a Democrat, introduced tougher sentencing for arms trafficking last year. The bill passed with the help of 14 Republican members, while 193 Republican members voted against it, in line with the party's opposition to restrictions on gun rights.

In four U.S. states along the Mexico border, federal rules adopted a decade ago to combat rampant trafficking mean gun dealers must report multiple purchases of certain high caliber rifles. In Wisconsin and many other states, there are no such requirements.

The indictment says the network also bought FN SCAR assault rifles for CJNG. Belgium’s FN Herstal, which makes the gun, told Reuters it commends U.S. law enforcement for investigating illegal networks, saying its US-made firearms are only intended for the Defense Department, law enforcement “and the most reputable authorized dealers.” FN Herstal is not mentioned in the Mexican lawsuit.

Jalisco hometown

In 1976, Victor Cobian’s father, Victoriano Cobian, asked his girlfriend Maria to marry him and move to Racine from Tonaya, a small agave farming town in Jalisco, Maria said in an interview. It was already common for people from Jalisco to migrate to and from Wisconsin, first for farm work, then for better paying factory jobs.

Victor’s cousins Elias and Oswaldo Cobian followed north several decades later. By then, CJNG frequently battled security forces in the area around Tonaya. The town is often described in Mexican media as a hideout for CJNG leader Oseguera.

Reuters could not independently verify Oseguera’s connection to the town.

Marco Cobian, whose brother Victor has been indicted by U.S. authorities in the arms trafficking case, talks in his garage near Racine. REUTERS/Brian Snyder

Victor’s mother Maria Cobian works at Victor’s Again, the bar she owns and is named after her son, in Oak Creek, Wisconsin. REUTERS/Brian Snyder

Victoriano and Maria Cobian kept close ties to Tonaya, visiting at least once a year, often with the kids, their oldest son Marco said in an interview. Marco and Maria told Reuters they denied any knowledge about the alleged gun trafficking. Victoriano passed away in 2013.

Victor Cobian, speaking on his driveway in Racine, told Reuters he was unjustly associated with alleged gun-running honcho Cisneros because of their family ties. He said he only knew Cisneros in passing, on the street during family visits to Tonaya.

Victor’s Again

In October 2018, agents investigating the Cobian cousins got a break. Local police in Oak Creek, a city neighboring Racine, found multiple storage cases for high caliber firearms in a red dumpster at a construction site, according to the indictment and the two sources close to the investigation. The sources said they suspected the discarded cases were a sign weapons were being trafficked. Oak Creek police declined to comment.

The dumpster was near Victor’s Again, a bar that Victor Cobian’s parents opened in 1991 and named after him.

After the find, agents set up a pole camera facing Oswaldo Cobian’s house, one of the sources close to the investigation said. Agents staked out Victor Cobian’s home. They gathered bank and phone records and set up surveillance on the bar and other Cobian family member homes, the source said.

A sign illuminates Victor’s Again. Local police found several storage cases for high caliber firearms in a dumpster near the bar. REUTERS/Brian Snyder

The driveway sits empty at the Racine house where Oswaldo Cobian lived when it was raided in 2019. Police found FN SCAR assault rifles there they believed were about to be trafficked to Mexico. REUTERS/Brian Snyder

On February 28, 2019, after gathering intelligence for four months, agents saw the brothers carrying two FN SCAR assault rifles into Oswaldo’s garage, both sources said.

One of the sources said agents were worried the guns would be moved to the border. They secured a search warrant in less than 24 hours, according to an internal ATF presentation.

In the parking lot of an abandoned KMart the next afternoon, around 75 agents from ATF, local police, FBI, and Homeland Security Investigations gathered. Backed by BearCat SWAT vehicles, they raided the homes of Patrick Finnell and Victor, Oswaldo and Elias Cobian, among others.

Agents recovered 52 firearms, including the two FN SCARs, one of the sources said.

No .50 caliber Barrett rifles were found. But Victor Cobian was arrested at his house with three empty Barrett cases and a conversion kit to turn weapons into fully automatic machine guns, according to the source.

Also found were two Colt 1911 pistols sporting gold-plated grips and ornately decorated with cartel insignia, the presentation showed.

Victor told Reuters the conversion kit wasn’t his. He said he embellished the pistols in homage to his home state of Jalisco and his love of gangster TV shows.

One of the pistols, the presentation showed, was engraved with San Judas Tadeo, a saint popular with Mexican narcotraffickers. The other was inlaid with a gold 50-peso coin, similar to coins stolen during a heist of Mexico’s Central bank in 2019. Carved below the coin were the letters “CJNG”.

12. Is Ukraine really losing?

Excerpts:

To many Ukrainians, Johnson’s promise that the West would support them in their fight and Biden’s assurance that the US would back Kyiv for “as long as it takes” now ring rather hollow. Despite major breakthroughs by Ukraine in Kharkiv and Kherson in the autumn of last year, Kyiv’s NATO allies dragged their feet on the supply of tanks, long-range rocket artillery, cruise missiles and modern attack aviation. That gave Russia time to dig mine-strewn defensive lines many miles deep along the 800 miles front.

This autumn, supplies of NATO-standard artillery shells and long-range ATACMS rocket artillery have dried up, in part because of supplies being diverted to Israel, in part because of dwindling western stockpiles, in part because of a failure of political will.

...

Fresh opinion polls by the Sociological Group Rating confirm that Zelensky’s approval ratings are sinking, with 39 percent “strongly” trusting him and 33 percent who “sooner trust than distrust.” Conversely, General Zaluzhny’s own rating has soared to 63 percent strong trust. Public opinion is also deeply split on how to bring the war to an end, with 44 percent of Ukrainians believing compromise is needed versus 48 percent who wish to continue fighting for victory.

Zelensky continues officially to define Ukrainian victory as restoring its 1991 borders. While no mainstream Ukrainian politician is yet openly calling for a deal with the Kremlin, a backlash against Zelensky’s magical thinking is growing. “We can euphorically lie to our people and our partners,” Mayor Klitschko told Der Spiegel last week. “But you won’t be able to do this for ever.”

The US Mission to NATO recently tweeted that Washington is “focused on setting conditions for a just, durable and sustainable peace.” That is far from the “Everything it takes, for as long as it takes” message Ukrainians believed they had heard from the West last year. The White House’s budget director, Shalanda Young, went further. “Without congressional action, by the end of the year we will run out of resources to procure more weapons and equipment for Ukraine and to provide equipment from US military stocks,” Young wrote to the political leaders of both parties. “We are out of money — and nearly out of time.” Zelensky even canceled his much-anticipated appearance (via Zoom) before the US Senate this week, apparently in protest at US funding drying up.

Is Ukraine really losing?

The country may not have recovered all its lost lands — but it has already won the war in many other ways

December 8, 2023 | 6:00 pm

thespectator.com · by Owen Matthews · December 8, 2023

In Ukraine, the political mood has become somber and fractious. As the front lines settle into stalemate, Russia ramps up for a new season of missile and drone attacks and vital US support for Ukraine’s war effort crumbles under partisan attack in Congress, one existential question looms large. Should Volodymyr Zelensky continue to fight endlessly in pursuit of a comprehensive defeat of Russia which may be unattainable — or should he consider cutting his losses and reaching a compromise?

At the war’s outset, the Ukrainian President had a clear answer. “I am sure there are people who won’t be satisfied with any kind of peace [with Russia] under any conditions at any time,” he told the Associated Press. “But however hard it is, we have to understand that every war should end in peace or it will end with millions of victims. Yes, we have to fight — but fight for life. Nobody wants to negotiate with a person who tortured this nation. [But] millions of people want to stop this war. We cannot decide for them and say: ‘No, we are not ready to speak with murderers.’”

Zelensky said those words as he sat in a sandbagged stairwell of his presidential palace in Kyiv on April 9 last year. Days before, he had visited the devastated suburb of Bucha, where Russian troops had massacred more than 400 civilians before withdrawing from around the capital. At that time, talks were still theoretically ongoing with the Russians, directly as well as via Israeli and Turkish go-betweens. Indeed, earlier this year, Vladimir Putin claimed that Kyiv’s negotiators had initialed a draft peace plan provisionally entitled “A Treaty of Permanent Neutrality and Security Guarantees for Ukraine” which included a promise not to join NATO as well as limitations on Ukraine’s armed forces. (A former Ukrainian government source who worked closely with Zelensky at the time of the negotiations confirmed that the details of the draft document alluded to were accurate.)

In place of a sweeping Ukrainian counteroffensive, the focus is now on not losing more land

As Zelensky’s negotiator Mikhail Podolyak told reporters in Istanbul in late March last year, the deal on the table was a ceasefire, the withdrawal of all Russian troops to their positions on the eve of the invasion — but remaining in the self-declared republics of the Donbas and Crimea. “As for Crimea and Sevastopol, we have agreed with the Russian Federation to a fifteen-year pause and to conduct bilateral talks regarding the status of these territories,” he said.

The then Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett, who was talking both to Putin and Zelensky, recalled in an interview that he left the talks in Istanbul “very optimistic because [Zelensky] renounced joining NATO… I was under the impression that both sides very much wanted a ceasefire.” David Arakhamia, chief Ukrainian negotiator at those peace talks in Istanbul, told Ukraine’s 1+1 TV that “Russia’s goal was to put pressure on us so that we would take neutrality. They were ready to end the war if we accepted neutrality, like Finland once did. And we would make a commitment that we will not join NATO. This was the main thing.”

In the event, there was no ceasefire, no Russian withdrawal to pre-invasion positions, and no deal on a special status for Crimea and the Donbas. At least half a million soldiers have been killed or seriously wounded, according to US estimates, and more than seven million people have fled their homes. Yet the front lines have barely moved from their positions in April last year.

What scuppered the deal? The turning point came between Zelensky’s AP interview on April 9, 2022, when he said that “We don’t want to lose opportunities, if we have them, for a diplomatic solution” and April 12, when Putin declared that talks were at a “dead end.”

Boris Johnson, then UK prime minister, arrived in Kyiv just hours after Zelensky spoke to the AP. According to Ukrainskaya Pravda, Johnson “brought two simple messages. The first was that Putin was a war criminal, he should be pressured, not negotiated with. And the second was that even if Ukraine were ready to sign agreements or guarantees with Putin, [the UK and US] are not. Johnson’s position was that the collective West, which back in February had suggested Zelensky should surrender and flee, now felt that Putin was not really as powerful as they had previously imagined.”

Was it Johnson’s charisma and his message from the West that reversed Zelensky’s resigned acceptance of peace talks? According to close aides, no — rather it was a deep shift in Ukrainian public opinion, outraged by news of the massacres that came to light in the territory relinquished by Russia, plus a realization that Putin could not be trusted. As Arakhamia said: “There was no trust in the Russians… lasting peace could only be done with security guarantees [from the West].”

Podolyak recalls that by early April last year, “it was clear Russia would make war until such time as their ultimate demands were met. That would have completely ended the existence of Ukrainian statehood… Therefore theoretical discussions about whether someone offered something here or blocked something there, all these interpretations are not in accordance with reality.” In Istanbul in late March, Ukraine had been “negotiating from a position of weakness,” with Russian tanks just a few miles from the capital. But by the time Johnson arrived in Kyiv, Russia had been pushed out of all of northern Ukraine by relentless, irregular attacks on its troops and armor.

“There was a real danger that we could have signed that deal,” says a former Zelensky senior minister, who was in the administration at the time of the negotiations. “But [the leadership] realized that this would be the end of Ukraine as a sovereign nation. The Russians thought they could demand that we completely refuse the idea of sanctions, absolve Russia from responsibility for the invasion, agree to demilitarization, agree to legitimize their occupation of our lands. Now, such points are not open for discussion. That is the advantage we bought with all the lives that were spent.”

After nearly two years of war, the challenges that faced negotiators in Istanbul in the spring of last year remain fundamentally the same. Ukrainian NATO membership is still a deal-breaker for the Kremlin, while formal surrender of the occupied territories would be politically unsurvivable for any Ukrainian leader. At the same time the stakes have risen on both sides. In September last year in a glittering ceremony in the Kremlin, Putin triumphantly admitted four new subjects of the Russian Federation: the Zaporizhia and Kherson regions and the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics. Zelensky issued a decree making it illegal to enter into any negotiations with the Putin regime.

Boris Johnson and Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv, April 9, 2022 (Getty)

To many Ukrainians, Johnson’s promise that the West would support them in their fight and Biden’s assurance that the US would back Kyiv for “as long as it takes” now ring rather hollow. Despite major breakthroughs by Ukraine in Kharkiv and Kherson in the autumn of last year, Kyiv’s NATO allies dragged their feet on the supply of tanks, long-range rocket artillery, cruise missiles and modern attack aviation. That gave Russia time to dig mine-strewn defensive lines many miles deep along the 800 miles front.

This autumn, supplies of NATO-standard artillery shells and long-range ATACMS rocket artillery have dried up, in part because of supplies being diverted to Israel, in part because of dwindling western stockpiles, in part because of a failure of political will.

“All we want is for our partners to deliver what they promised to deliver,” says a Zelensky advisor, Serhiy Leshchenko. “If we had known that these supplies would not arrive, maybe we would have planned differently.” As it is, in the wake of a gloomy confirmation by Valery Zaluzhny, chief of the general staff, last month that “there will be no miraculous breakthrough on the front lines.” President Zelensky has announced that Ukrainian forces should prepare a defense to hold off new Russian attacks around the Donbas. In place of optimistic talk of a sweeping Ukrainian counteroffensive, the focus is now on not losing yet more land. “A critical situation has developed in Ukraine which may worsen due to insufficient western assistance,” warned the NATO secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg last week. “We need to prepare for bad news.”

At the same time, politics has returned to Ukraine after nearly two years of wartime solidarity. Vitaly Klitschko, the popular Kyiv mayor, has become a vocal critic of Zelensky and last week publicly attacked him for “actively moving towards authoritarianism… there are practically no independent institutions of power left.”

Vitaly Klitschko attends the raising of the state flag near City Hall in Kyiv, August 23, 2023 (Getty)

Fresh opinion polls by the Sociological Group Rating confirm that Zelensky’s approval ratings are sinking, with 39 percent “strongly” trusting him and 33 percent who “sooner trust than distrust.” Conversely, General Zaluzhny’s own rating has soared to 63 percent strong trust. Public opinion is also deeply split on how to bring the war to an end, with 44 percent of Ukrainians believing compromise is needed versus 48 percent who wish to continue fighting for victory.

Zelensky continues officially to define Ukrainian victory as restoring its 1991 borders. While no mainstream Ukrainian politician is yet openly calling for a deal with the Kremlin, a backlash against Zelensky’s magical thinking is growing. “We can euphorically lie to our people and our partners,” Mayor Klitschko told Der Spiegel last week. “But you won’t be able to do this for ever.”

The US Mission to NATO recently tweeted that Washington is “focused on setting conditions for a just, durable and sustainable peace.” That is far from the “Everything it takes, for as long as it takes” message Ukrainians believed they had heard from the West last year. The White House’s budget director, Shalanda Young, went further. “Without congressional action, by the end of the year we will run out of resources to procure more weapons and equipment for Ukraine and to provide equipment from US military stocks,” Young wrote to the political leaders of both parties. “We are out of money — and nearly out of time.” Zelensky even canceled his much-anticipated appearance (via Zoom) before the US Senate this week, apparently in protest at US funding drying up.

Ukraine may not have recovered all its lost lands — but it has already won the war in many other ways. Putin occupies 18 percent of Ukrainian territory, but strategically the war has been disastrous. NATO has expanded to cover more than 600 miles of Russia’s border with Finland; Europe has dramatically increased defense spending; Gazprom’s economic dominance of the continent has disappeared; Ukraine’s military has become the most powerful in Europe; the EU is about to announce that Ukraine is an official candidate for membership; and even if sanctions have not succeeded in destroying Russia’s economy, Moscow is nonetheless economically and politically isolated.

Ukraine has scored significant military victories by effectively interdicting Russian naval operations in Crimea and in the Black Sea, unilaterally opening the Black Sea grain export corridor, and showing its ability to strike airfields, munitions factories and railways inside Russia. The country has not fought for nothing. This war will end with some kind of negotiation, just like every other war humanity has fought. But the terms Ukraine will reach will be delivered from a position of strength, not near capitulation. That’s what has changed since April 2022.

In the Winter War of 1939-40, Finland miraculously fought the Soviets to a standstill, losing the province of Karelia but preserving its independence. Finland lost land, yes. But on its own proven military strength, it won its long-term security.

Putin cannot be trusted — nor can he be defeated without NATO’s direct involvement up to and including nuclear war. He can, however, be effectively contained, stopped in his tracks by comprehensive NATO military solidarity. In a decade’s time Ukraine has every chance of being a prosperous and free EU member, with its security guaranteed by the world’s most powerful military bloc, either as a close ally or as a full NATO member. Russia, meanwhile, is likely to continue to languish in international isolation under Putin’s gerontocratic death cult. Then it will be clear enough who has truly won this war.

This article was originally published in The Spectator’s UK magazine. Subscribe to the World edition here.

thespectator.com · by Owen Matthews · December 8, 2023

13. UN rights chief slammed for not acknowledging Uyghurs on genocide convention anniversary

Excerpts:

“Volker Turk’s statement means little when people in powerful positions like him are not prepared to act over a well-documented and publicized genocide happening against the Uyghur people, recognized by free parliaments and by tribunal,” Rahima Mahmut, the U.K. Director for the World Uyghur Congress told RFA Uyghur. “ I personally find it disgraceful how so many people rightly acting against other atrocities are silent on China.“

Donald Clake, a law professor at the George Washington University, said in a tweet on X, formerly Twitter, “@volker_turk Could you specify where, in your opinion, genocide is occurring? These abstract pronouncements are useless against real crimes.”

...

Zumretay Erkin, director of global advocacy for the World Uyghur Congress, told RFA that Turk’s statement highlighted the importance of urgent action to stop genocide.

“The 75th anniversary of the Genocide Convention as well as the 75th year of the UN Declaration for Human Rights should be the opportunity for this office to take meaningful action on the Uyghur genocide, such as calling on China to stop the ongoing Uyghur genocide and release all the Uyghurs detained in concentration camps,” said Erkin.

UN rights chief slammed for not acknowledging Uyghurs on genocide convention anniversary

americanmilitarynews.com · by Radio Free Asia · December 10, 2023

This article was originally published by Radio Free Asia and is reprinted with permission.

On the 75th anniversary of the U.N. convention on genocide, the international body’s human rights chief called on the global community to hold perpetrators accountable, but was slammed for failing to condemn the situation facing Uyghurs in northwestern China.

“Genocide is never unleashed without warning,” Volker Turk, the U.N.’s High Commissioner for Human Rights, said in a statement. “It is always the culmination of preceding and identifiable patterns of systematic discrimination – based on race, ethnicity, religion or other characteristics – and of gross human rights violations, targeted as a matter of policy against a people; minority; community.”

In the statement, Turk referenced past examples of genocide, including during the Holocaust, and in Cambodia, Rwanda, and Yugoslavia.

Those who monitor the Uyghur situation in China’s Xinjiang – many of whom say genocide is occurring in the region – took to social media on Tuesday to voice disappointment that Turk did not mention Xinjiang at all, despite what they call obvious warning signs.

At least 1.8 million Uyghurs and other Turkic minorities are believed to have been held in a network of detention camps in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region since 2017.

Beijing has said that the camps are vocational training centers. The government has denied widespread allegations that it has tortured people in the camps or mistreated other Muslims living in Xinjiang. The U.S. government, and several Western parliaments have declared the Chinese government’s actions toward the Uyghurs as genocide or crimes against humanity.

“Volker Turk’s statement means little when people in powerful positions like him are not prepared to act over a well-documented and publicized genocide happening against the Uyghur people, recognized by free parliaments and by tribunal,” Rahima Mahmut, the U.K. Director for the World Uyghur Congress told RFA Uyghur. “ I personally find it disgraceful how so many people rightly acting against other atrocities are silent on China.“

Donald Clake, a law professor at the George Washington University, said in a tweet on X, formerly Twitter, “@volker_turk Could you specify where, in your opinion, genocide is occurring? These abstract pronouncements are useless against real crimes.”

Emma Reilly, a former U.N. staffer who was fired after whistleblowing on the U.N. for handing the names of Uyghur activists to the Chinese government, criticized Turk on X for not taking any concrete action at the U.N.

“@volker_turk is a hypocrite,” she said. “@UNHumanRights is complicit in #UyghurGenocide by handing names to #Beijing; @UN defends that policy in court; All evidence shows it continues; @UN has never investigated.”

Rushan Abbas, the executive director of the Campaign for Uyghurs, used Turk’s own words to criticize his statement.

“Genocide is never unleashed without warning, and can only continue through repeated denial,” Rushan Abbas said. “The Chinese Communist Party is carrying out full-fledged genocide against Uyghurs, and spends billions to deceive the world. It is up to all of us to stand on the side of truth.”

Zumretay Erkin, director of global advocacy for the World Uyghur Congress, told RFA that Turk’s statement highlighted the importance of urgent action to stop genocide.

“The 75th anniversary of the Genocide Convention as well as the 75th year of the UN Declaration for Human Rights should be the opportunity for this office to take meaningful action on the Uyghur genocide, such as calling on China to stop the ongoing Uyghur genocide and release all the Uyghurs detained in concentration camps,” said Erkin.

RFA attempted to contact the Office of the High Commissioner on Human Rights but received no response.

americanmilitarynews.com · by Radio Free Asia · December 10, 2023

14. Gaza in chaos as Palestinian anger against Hamas grows

Separating the population from the terrorists is also a fundamental and very necessary tactic. I hope this report is accurate and that the separation continues and grows.

Perhaps more anecdotes than evidence. But this must be part of the information campaign.

Excerpts:

When the Qatari Al Jazeera network attempted to blame Israel for the dire situation, an elderly resident who fled from northern Khan Yunis confronted the organization that has controlled Gaza since 2007.

"All the aid goes down (to the tunnels)! It doesn't reach the people", she asserted to the surprised reporter, who tried to persuade her otherwise. Firmly, she replied, "No, no, everything goes to their homes. They take everything."

In another incident this week, documented and shared on social media, residents threw stones at Hamas members to prevent them from looting a humanitarian convoy passing through Egypt to the Rafah crossing. The angry residents challenged the Hamas forces, who responded by firing at them. "Come here, if you are real men," they shouted. The footage concluded with the furious protesters starting to chase the convoy.

Gaza in chaos as Palestinian anger against Hamas grows

Jerusalem Post

The second phase of the Israeli war in Gaza has further exacerbated the humanitarian crisis. Hundreds of thousands of displaced people who fled from the North now seek shelter in the already overcrowded southern part of the Gaza Strip. Many move from Khan Yunis, the current epicenter of IDF-Hamas fighting, to the southern end of the strip, Rafah, near the Egyptian border. All the while, signs point to Hamas's rule weakening and the barrier of fear against the terrorist group breaking.

A Gaza resident, who bravely expressed his opinions on the radio, voiced his message to Yahya Sinwar and his accomplices. The interviewee, journalist Muhammad Mansour, boldly stated, "May Allah curse you, Hamas leadership. Sinwar, you are the offspring of a despicable creature. Allah will avenge the destruction you have inflicted upon us."

Mansour called on Hamas to release the remaining Israeli abductees held captive after the collapse of a previous deal, which resulted in the resumption of fighting. Frustrated, he exclaimed, "We were deported from Gaza to Khan Yunis, and from Khan Yunis to Rafah. Our children, women, and families were torn apart from us. Release these hostages immediately! Sinwar, [Mohammed] Deif, and their wicked companions hide underground. We don't even have access to water."

لا تعليق سوى… هل أنتم مرتاحون لهذا يا أنصار حماس والجهاد… الله لا يوفقكم ولا يوفق حماسكم وجهادكم… pic.twitter.com/pm9bBRkmbq

— عبد العزيز الخميس (@alkhames) December 6, 2023

Why are Gazan Palestinians angry at Hamas?

While the Hamas leaders remain hidden in tunnels, above-ground residents face significant destruction and a lack of basic necessities, including food and water. These supplies are stored in UNRWA warehouses but fail to reach the people. Photos circulating show enraged residents looting one of the warehouses in Khan Yunis. One resident wrote in a local Telegram group, "What corruption! We are a family of four with refugees among us, struggling to find or buy food.

"A UNRWA representative denied us aid. The police informed the representative that distributing aid was prohibited." Another resident expressed, "UNRWA is ruining our lives just like the Jews."

A must watch:A Gazan woman surprises Al Jazeera reporter and tells him that Hamas is taking all the humanitarian aid to its terrorists in the tunnels. The reporter tries to convince her otherwise but she continues to attack Hamas.@MOhadIsrael pic.twitter.com/ZrtYhq4vSU

— Yonatan Gonen (@GonenYonatan) December 6, 2023

Advertisement

When the Qatari Al Jazeera network attempted to blame Israel for the dire situation, an elderly resident who fled from northern Khan Yunis confronted the organization that has controlled Gaza since 2007.

"All the aid goes down (to the tunnels)! It doesn't reach the people", she asserted to the surprised reporter, who tried to persuade her otherwise. Firmly, she replied, "No, no, everything goes to their homes. They take everything."

In another incident this week, documented and shared on social media, residents threw stones at Hamas members to prevent them from looting a humanitarian convoy passing through Egypt to the Rafah crossing. The angry residents challenged the Hamas forces, who responded by firing at them. "Come here, if you are real men," they shouted. The footage concluded with the furious protesters starting to chase the convoy.

Jerusalem Post

15. How An AC/DC Hit Helped To Topple A Dictatorship

I of course have searches set up for everything related to irregular, unconventional, and political warfare. Today this popped up.

I seem to recall that at the time the use of music at the Apostolic Nunciature of the Holy See was severely criticized. This article starts out seemingly somewhat positive but ends with criticism of the US.

Also every SERE student has seen the attempts to weaponize music.

Excerpts:

Of course, this isn’t the only occasion when the US has weaponized rock music. This use of ‘audio-torture’ takes a darker turn when we look at the infamous Guantanamo Bay, where rock and metal music was used to torment detainees.

So, we’re left with a paradoxical legacy – rock music, born out of rebellion against oppressive systems, being used as a tool by those very systems. It brings us to two peculiarly American phenomena, the embrace of rock and roll in the service of psychological warfare and the questionable ethics of using music as a means of torture.

How An AC/DC Hit Helped To Topple A Dictatorship

wearethepit.com · by Alan Busch · December 10, 2023

Joan Sorolla from La Roca del Vallès, Catalonia, CC BY 2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

Published on: Dec 10, 2023, 9:03 AM

Published on: Dec 10, 2023, 9:03 AM

by Alan Busch

Unconventional warfare sometimes demands unconventional weapons. In the arsenal of psychological warfare, the US Delta Force and Navy SEALs found an unlikely ally in 1989: rock and roll. Welcome to the darkest backstage of military operations, where rock music became the soundtrack to a dictator’s downfall.

Hard rock powerhouse AC/DC made a name for themselves not just with headbangers but also, quite unexpectedly, within the tight-lipped ranks of the United States military. The Aussie hooligan’s nerve-rattling sound was the unlikely hero in “Operation Nifty Package,” a surreal chapter of international espionage that saw the capture of Panamanian dictator, Manuel Noriega.

A man of many masks, Noriega was a former CIA operative turned narco-tyrant whose reign was marked by unabashed corruption and gross human rights abuses. His unchecked greed led to his downfall when he audaciously annulled the 1989 general election results, essentially crowning himself the dictator. This blatant disregard for democracy was the final straw for the US, prompting them to intervene.

Faced with Noriega’s clever retreat into the Apostolic Nunciature of the Holy See, a jurisdictional no man’s land due to its status as a Vatican City embassy, the US military played their trump card at the highest possible volume. In a brazen, booming call for Noriega to surrender, AC/DC’s ‘You Shook Me All Night Long’ was blasted on repeat, at ear-splitting levels, outside the embassy. To ensure the dictator didn’t become too comfortable with Angus Young’s riffs, the playlist was peppered with tracks like ‘I Fought the Law’ by The Clash, Guns N’ Roses’ hit ‘Welcome To The Jungle,’ and (fittingly)… ‘Panama’ by Van Halen.

The relentless rock and roll onslaught continued for ten days, at the end of which Noriega surrendered. The dictator, who had danced with death, drugs, and dictatorial power, was finally undone by the blistering power of hard rock. His downfall brought about a welcome political shift in Panama, and AC/DC’s ‘You Shook Me All Night Long’ has since become an anthem of liberation for the nation.

Of course, this isn’t the only occasion when the US has weaponized rock music. This use of ‘audio-torture’ takes a darker turn when we look at the infamous Guantanamo Bay, where rock and metal music was used to torment detainees.

So, we’re left with a paradoxical legacy – rock music, born out of rebellion against oppressive systems, being used as a tool by those very systems. It brings us to two peculiarly American phenomena, the embrace of rock and roll in the service of psychological warfare and the questionable ethics of using music as a means of torture.

wearethepit.com · by Alan Busch · December 10, 2023

16. Biden to host Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at White House Tuesday

This might be awkward. Will he be able to wi support in Congress or just continue to upset those Congressman who oppose aid?

Biden to host Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at White House Tuesday | CNN Politics

CNN · by Kevin Liptak · December 10, 2023

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is embraced by U.S. President Joe Biden in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, September 21, 2023. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY

Kevin Lamarque/Reuters

CNN —

President Joe Biden will host Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House Tuesday as discussions on a Ukraine aid deal remain stalled in Congress.

The visit, which the White House announced Sunday, is Zelensky’s third visit to Washington since the war in Ukraine began. He last visited in September.

Zelensky’s visit comes at a critical moment in congressional negotiations for emergency aid to Ukraine. Congress appears no closer to a deal tying immigration and border policy changes to the emergency aid package that will provide funding for Ukraine and Israel before lawmakers leave town for the holidays.

The Ukrainian president was also invited to speak at an all-senators meeting Tuesday morning by Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, a Senate leadership aide said. House Speaker Mike Johnson will meet with Zelensky too, his office said in a statement.

The White House meeting is meant to “underscore the United States’ unshakeable commitment to supporting the people of Ukraine as they defend themselves against Russia’s brutal invasion,” press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said in a statement.

“As Russia ramps up its missile and drone strikes against Ukraine, the leaders will discuss Ukraine’s urgent needs and the vital importance of the United States’ continued support at this critical moment,” she said.

The pair will discuss “further defense cooperation” in a series of meetings Tuesday, the office of the Ukrainian presidency said in a statement Sunday.

Zelensky will focus on “securing unity among the US, Europe, and the rest of the world” on their support of Ukraine’s defense against Russia and “strengthening the international order based on rules and respect for the sovereignty of nations,” the statement read.

Zelensky and Biden will also discuss defensive cooperation efforts for the coming year, including joint projects to produce weapons and air defense systems.

If Congress leaves town for the holidays without reaching a deal, the White House will have to make tough choices about supplying allies such as Ukraine at the potential expense of US military readiness. Top Biden administration officials have been sounding the alarm for weeks about funding for Ukraine running dry and the potential consequences.

The administration’s proposed $106 billion aid package includes about $60 billion in aid toward Ukraine’s defenses against Russia, with the rest going toward Israel’s war with Hamas, security in Taiwan and funding for operations at the US-Mexico border.

But top Republicans, wary of adding more to the $111 billion the US has already sent to Ukraine, have asked that any further funding be tied to major immigration-related policy changes.

“History’s going to judge harshly those who turn their back on freedom’s cause,” Biden said earlier this month. “We can’t let Putin win.”

The president said he was willing to make “significant compromises on the border,” conceding the country’s immigration system is “broken,” but added Ukraine’s needs are too critical to wait. He called out “extreme Republicans” as negotiators remain at a critical impasse over the sticking point issue of border security, saying those Republicans are “playing chicken with our national security.”

“Frankly, I think it’s stunning we got to this point in the first place … Russian forces are committing war crimes – it’s as simple as that. It’s stunning,” Biden said.

Ukraine said Saturday that Russia launched nearly 100 air attacks across the country in the space of 24 hours, as its first lady warned Ukraine was in “mortal danger” without Western military aid.

“We really need the help,” Ukraine’s first lady Olena Zelenska, recently told the BBC of support to Ukraine. “In simple words, we cannot get tired of this situation, because if we do, we die.

“And if the world gets tired, they will simply let us die.”

CORRECTION: This story has been updated to reflect that Tuesday’s trip will be Zelensky’s third visit to Washington since the war began.

CNN’s Michael Williams and Betsy Klein, Priscilla Alvarez and Lauren Fox contributed to this report.

CNN · by Kevin Liptak · December 10, 2023

17. Battles rage across Gaza as Israel indicates it's willing to fight for months or more to beat Hamas

Battles rage across Gaza as Israel indicates it's willing to fight for months or more to beat Hamas

AP · December 10, 2023

BY NAJIB JOBAIN, WAFAA SHURAFA AND SAMY MAGDY

Updated 6:42 AM GMT+8, December 11, 2023

DEIR AL-BALAH, Gaza Strip (AP) — Battles raged across Gaza on Sunday as Israel indicated it was prepared to fight for months or longer to defeat the territory’s Hamas rulers, and a key mediator said willingness to discuss a cease-fire was fading.

Israel faces international outrage after its military offensive, with diplomatic support and arms from close ally the United States, has killed thousands of Palestinian civilians. About 90% of Gaza’s 2.3 million people have been displaced within the besieged territory, where U.N. agencies say there is no safe place to flee.

The United States has lent vital support in recent days by vetoing a United Nations Security Council resolution to end the fighting and pushing through an emergency sale of over $100 million worth of tank ammunition to Israel.

Russia backed the resolution. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday spoke to Russian President Vladimir Putin and expressed dissatisfaction with “anti-Israel positions” taken by Moscow’s envoys at the U.N. and elsewhere, an Israeli statement said.

Netanyahu told Putin that any country assaulted the way Israel was “would have reacted with no less force than Israel is using,” the statement added.

The U.N. General Assembly scheduled an emergency meeting Tuesday to vote on a draft resolution demanding an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza. Riyad Mansour, the Palestinian ambassador to the U.N., told The Associated Press that it’s similar to the Security Council resolution the U.S. vetoed Friday.

There are no vetoes in the General Assembly but unlike the Security Council its resolutions are not legally binding. They are important nonetheless as a barometer of global opinion.

Israel’s air and ground war has killed thousands of Palestinians, mostly civilians, since the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas and other militants killed 1,200 people and captured around 240. Over 100 of them were released during a weeklong cease-fire last month.

With very little aid allowed in, Palestinians face severe shortages of food, water and other basic goods. Some observers openly worry that Palestinians will be forced out of Gaza altogether.

“Expect public order to completely break down soon, and an even worse situation could unfold including epidemic diseases and increased pressure for mass displacement into Egypt,” U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told a forum in Qatar, a key intermediary.

Eylon Levy, an Israeli government spokesman, called allegations of mass displacement from Gaza “outrageous and false.”

Qatar’s prime minister, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, told the forum that mediation efforts seeking to stop the war and have all hostages released will continue, but “unfortunately, we are not seeing the same willingness that we had seen in the weeks before.”

Israel’s national security adviser, Tzachi Hanegbi, told Israel’s Channel 12 TV that the U.S. has set no deadline for Israel to achieve its goals. “The evaluation that this can’t be measured in weeks is correct, and I’m not sure it can be measured in months,” he said.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told CNN that as far as the duration and the conduct of the fighting, “these are decisions for Israel to make.”

This is a war that cannot be won, Jordan’s foreign minister, Ayman Safadi, asserted to the Qatar forum, warning that “Israel has created an amount of hatred that will haunt this region that will define generations to come.”

FIGHTING AND ARRESTS IN THE NORTH

Israeli forces face heavy resistance, including in northern Gaza, where neighborhoods have been flattened by air strikes and where ground troops have operated for over six weeks.

Israel’s Channel 13 TV broadcast footage showing dozens of detainees stripped to their underwear, hands in the air. Several held assault rifles above their heads, and one man walked forward and placed a gun on the ground.

Other videos have shown groups of unarmed men held in similar conditions, without clothes, bound and blindfolded. Detainees from a group released Saturday told The Associated Press they had been beaten and denied food and water.

Israeli military spokesperson Daniel Hagari said dozens of arrests took place in two Hamas strongholds and that people are undressed to make sure they are not hiding explosives.

Residents said there was still heavy fighting in the Gaza City neighborhood of Shijaiyah and the Jabaliya refugee camp, a dense urban area housing Palestinian families who fled or were driven out of what is now Israel during the 1948 war.

“They are attacking anything that moves,” said Hamza Abu Fatouh, a Shijaiyah resident. He said the dead and wounded were left in the streets as ambulances could not reach the area.

Israel ordered the evacuation of the northern third of the territory, including Gaza City, early in the war, but tens of thousands of people have remained.

Heavy fighting also was underway in and around the southern city of Khan Younis.

WAITING DAYS FOR FOOD

The price of dwindling food in Gaza has soared. Abdulsalam al-Majdalawi said he had come every day for nearly two weeks to a U.N. distribution center, hoping to get supplies for his family of seven.

“Thank God, today they drew our name,” he said.

One hundred trucks with humanitarian aid entered Sunday, said Wael Abu Omar, a spokesman for the Palestinian Crossings Authority. That’s far short of what’s needed.

With the war in its third month, the Palestinian death toll in Gaza has surpassed 17,900, the majority women and children, according to the Health Ministry in the Hamas-controlled territory. The ministry does not differentiate between civilian and combatant deaths.

Israel holds Hamas responsible for civilian casualties, saying the militants put civilians in danger by fighting in residential neighborhoods. The military says 97 Israeli soldiers have died in the offensive. Palestinian militants have continued firing rockets into Israel.

Netanyahu’s office said Hamas still has 117 hostages and the remains of 20 people killed in captivity or during the Oct. 7 attack. The militants hope to exchange them for Palestinians imprisoned by Israel.

Israel says it has provided detailed instructions for civilians to evacuate to safer areas, even as it strikes what it says are militant targets. Thousands have fled to areas along the border with Egypt — one of the last places where aid agencies are able to deliver food and water.

Demonstrations were again held in several cities in support of the Palestinians and calling for an end to the war, while thousands marched in Europe against antisemitism.

The war has raised tensions across the Middle East, with Lebanon’s Hezbollah trading fire with Israel along the border and other Iran-backed militant groups targeting the U.S. in Syria and Iraq. Israeli artillery, drone, and airstrikes over Lebanon border towns intensified.

___

Jobain reported from Rafah, Gaza Strip, and Magdy from Cairo. Associated Press writers Edith M. Lederer at the United Nations; Melanie Lidman and Julia Frankel in Jerusalem; and Lujain Jo in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, contributed to this report.

___

Full AP coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/israel-hamas-war

AP · December 10, 2023

18. ‘You Cannot Unsee the Evil’: A Report on the Graphic Hamas Terror Video, From Combat Veteran John Spencer

Yes this is from Soldier of Fortune magazine. But it is worth the read.

​I have watched the commentary on this article. Some believe this footage should be shown on every college campus and anywhere where there are those who deny Hamas' atrocities.

John Spencer provides detailed descriptions of the Hamas' videos, filmed by their terrorists with GoPro cameras. But then he provides his editorial comments here which has led to some differences of opinion.

Excerpts:

I have seen my share of evil firsthand around the world in wars of the Middle East, Ukraine, and other areas. I have seen heinous cruelty, dehumanization, and mutilations. I have looked evil men in the eye. But I have never seen so many evil men (thousands) show such joy in committing their acts.

I hated having to watch the video. You cannot unsee the evil shown in it. The unique way each scene shows all angles of evil massacres, mutilations, murder, over and over creates something different, a traumatic event.

I now understand more why it is only being selectively shown to others. The video has immense potential to traumatize viewers in unknowable ways based on the viewer’s past or who they are.

I personally will never forget the scenes of the children. Photo after photo of dead, burned, mutilated children. Some in the same pajamas my children wear, soaked in their blood. Or the scene of the two young brothers trying to care for each other through their injuries and pain while a terrorist stood by emotionless.

It is not natural. I have seen an entire platoon of soldiers mentally, morally, and emotionally crushed by the accidental injury of a single child in combat.

It is like Hamas released 2,000 Jeffrey Dahmers into Southern Israel. Cold, psychopathic, emotionless, serial killers that get joy in the suffering of others. Pure evil.

No one should want to see this video, but the horrors of that day should never be forgotten. Never rationalized away. The phrase in my head the whole time “Never Again” from the post-Holocaust, post-World War II era, but I was watching it “again.”

‘You Cannot Unsee the Evil’: A Report on the Graphic Hamas Terror Video, From Combat Veteran John Spencer - Soldier of Fortune Magazine

sofmag.com · by Soldier of Fortune Magazine · December 8, 2023

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I am an American veteran who watched the footage of Hamas’s atrocities on October 7. People should know what it shows.

by John Spencer

Last week, I watched the roughly 45-minute footage of the atrocities conducted by Hamas on October 7 at a private screening at the Israeli Consulate in New York City. I left the consulate and immediately went to write down my reactions to seeing the video because I felt strongly people should understand what is in it. I also felt strongly after watching the video, that everyone should not see it. Here is why.

The video is a compilation of mainly GoPro camera and cellphone footage from hundreds of Hamas terrorists, but it also includes Israeli home security cameras, car dash cameras, traffic cameras, and first responder cell videos to piece together the before, during, and after of multiple single events and sites of the massacre. The unique combinations of points of views of a single act creates a visceral experience of each crime scene.

The film starts with Hamas terrorists riding in the back of pickup trucks and motorcycles in a column armed with AK-47s, rocket propelled grenades (RPGs), and a few heavy machine guns. The vehicles drive through a cut made in the Israel border wall. The terrorists were all screaming with joy, yelling over and over “Allahu Akbar!” As a former commander who has led troops into combat, I was shocked at the behavior of the Hamas members. Soldiers don’t show such excitement, happiness when riding into combat or danger.

One of the first scenes of violence is on a highway in Southern Israel from a civilian vehicle dash camera. There are more than 10 terrorists spread out shooting into cars stopped on the highway. Bullets can be seen coming through the dash camera front wind glass and then the car slows and crashes into another car already stopped.

Then the video goes to GoPro footage of the Hamas terrorist engaging the car the viewer the previous footage was showing. The terrorist approaches the vehicles shooting multiple rounds until he sees it slow and wreck into another car. He approaches the window and fires at close range multiple rounds into the male driver and woman passenger in the car to ensure they are dead.

Next at a Kibbutz entrance on CCTV, two Hamas terrorist slowly walk up to the gate peering through the gate bars, appearing to try to sneak in, but the gate is closed. They walk off camera. A civilian car approaches the gate and activates the automatic opening. The terrorists walk into camera view and fire at the windows of the car at close range. They look in to ensure the passengers are dead, and then walk into the Kibbutz.

A home security camera footage inside the home of the Kibbutz shows a father in his underwear, who looks to have just awakened, frantically carrying his two sons through the room, and running outside. The two boys also are in underwear (both appear between 8-12, like my son). Another camera shows the father and sons leave their house and enter a shelter in their backyard.

Seconds later a Hamas terrorist approaches the shelter the father and sons had just entered. The terrorist looks into the shelter and then throws a grenade into it.

Boom!

Through the smoke the father is seen collapsing at the opening of the shelter, dead, clearly having attempted to stand between his sons and the terrorist.

The boys are pulled out of the shelter over their dead father’s body by one of the terrorists. They are taken back into the house, and put on the couch.

But now the video’s audio is distinctive. I hear a sound I am very familiar with. The sound of a dying man in war – a death moan. But it isn’t coming from a man, it is coming from one of the boys. The other cries. Blood flows in lines down from both boys clearly from the shrapnel of the grenade.

The boys attempt to talk to each other.

“Dad is dead.” The older brother is trying to comfort the younger, more covered in blood now. “Can you see out of your eye? No? Not at all?”

The eye looks gone.

“No, I can’t see anything.”

The terrorist seems oblivious to the two boys suffering. He is only a few feet away going through their fridge, picking out first the water and then a 2-liter of Coke that he begins to drink.

Inside an Israeli house.

Next, a CCTV footage in a kindergarten. Photos of cartoon characters on the walls, small chairs and chalkboards. A lone teacher is hiding in a room. She is trying to use kid nap pads to cover her body. A pair of Hamas terrorists enter the school, searching room by room. They reach her room, look in, and fire at her.

One of the terrorists enters the room, makes sure she is dead, and then puts her on his shoulder and carries her away.

Now scenes of the Nova music festival. Young kids dancing with faint Hamas paragliders in the distance. Then the popping of gunfire. Teenagers start chaotically running in all directions. First, they run to their cars, but there appears to be a massive traffic jam. Then hundreds can be seen abandoning their cars at once and running in mass into an open field as Hamas terrorists show up in vehicles.

The video cuts to Hamas Go Pro footage of their vehicles arriving to the festival, terrorists jumping out of the back of their trucks and immediately firing into the crowd of teenagers running through the field. One of the Hamas heavy machine guns mounted in the back of a pickup opens fire.

Then Hamas members entering the festival. They fire wildly into the porta johns. Cut to footage of petrified Israeli teenagers hiding in those same porta johns. Then videos of the dead bodies and floors covered in blood in the porta johns.

Then video of first responders arriving to the festival. An IDF soldier calls out as he approaches a food/bar tent: “I have one dead, I have two dead, three dead, four, five dead.” He nervously yells: “Is anyone alive? Please let me know if you are alive,” only to look over the bar counter to see tens of civilian bodies lying on top of each other.

The film flashes to tens of Israeli teenagers hiding in a large dumpster of black trash bags. A few seconds later there is a first responder video of just dead bodies in the dumpster.

READ MORE from John Spencer on urban warfare: Nine Months of Hell in Mariupol

The video does not show rape. Thank God. But there are other signs that Hamas targeted young women at the festival and other sites. There is a video of a group of more than five teenage girls scared, shaking, and huddled together in a tent. A Hamas terrorist enters the tent.

Flash to all girls handcuffed and walking out of the tent now, their faces cut, bruised, eye sockets swollen, teeth full of blood. They appear to have been beaten. Some of them are shoved into different vehicles.

One girl from the original huddle, seen in the line walked out of the tent, is separated and put into a jeep. Later the same girl with her pants soaked in blood just around her anus to the front of her pants is moved from the trunk of the jeep to the back seat.

There are also multiple photos of dead teenage women laying in the field of the festival, no pants, legs in disfigured and unnatural positions that would require breaking them to form.

Another scene shows Hamas in a Kibbutz screaming at a dead elderly man lying on the ground. Multiple terrorist step on the dead man’s head. One of the terrorists asks for the garden hoe nearby. The Hamas terrorist takes the hoe and repeatedly strikes at the old man’s throat trying to behead the man. With each swing the terrorist screams “Allahu Akbar!”

In another scene a Hamas terrorist takes a knife and quickly severs the head of an IDF soldier with his helmet still on his head. Once the terrorist cuts entirely through, he picks up the soldier’s head and walks off with it leaving his body behind. Another photo shows just heads found in a field flattened from some type of smashing.

There are many scenes of burned bodies. Bodies frozen in awkward positions in vehicles, on the highways, in their homes. The bodies burned to ashy skeletons. It gave me memories of visiting concentration camps of Dachau and seeing the photos of the holocaust.

There are also many photos of dead children and babies. Some where they were found, others in body bags. Young children still in their Disney Mickey Mouse or Stitch pajamas. Some burned and mutilated.

From a military lens I did see Hamas fighters with training, leaders giving orders to kill systematically, conserving ammo.

“Shoot them just once in the head, save your ammo.” I heard their communication back to leaders in Gaza.

In one scene a man is instructed to bring an IDF soldier’s body back even though he is dead. I also saw Hamas terrorists with no training, firing wildly into dead bodies or crowds of fleeing civilians.

There is an audio recording of one Hamas terrorist who used an Israeli woman’s cellphone to call his parents. “Father I am in XX, I just killed 10 Jews, their blood is in my hands, thank God, tell mom, tell mom, I am using a Jew woman’s phone.”

The man (dad) and woman (mom) he is talking to just yell and reply: “Kill, kill, kill.”

I have seen my share of evil firsthand around the world in wars of the Middle East, Ukraine, and other areas. I have seen heinous cruelty, dehumanization, and mutilations. I have looked evil men in the eye. But I have never seen so many evil men (thousands) show such joy in committing their acts.

I hated having to watch the video. You cannot unsee the evil shown in it. The unique way each scene shows all angles of evil massacres, mutilations, murder, over and over creates something different, a traumatic event.

I now understand more why it is only being selectively shown to others. The video has immense potential to traumatize viewers in unknowable ways based on the viewer’s past or who they are.

I personally will never forget the scenes of the children. Photo after photo of dead, burned, mutilated children. Some in the same pajamas my children wear, soaked in their blood. Or the scene of the two young brothers trying to care for each other through their injuries and pain while a terrorist stood by emotionless.

It is not natural. I have seen an entire platoon of soldiers mentally, morally, and emotionally crushed by the accidental injury of a single child in combat.

It is like Hamas released 2,000 Jeffrey Dahmers into Southern Israel. Cold, psychopathic, emotionless, serial killers that get joy in the suffering of others. Pure evil.

No one should want to see this video, but the horrors of that day should never be forgotten. Never rationalized away. The phrase in my head the whole time “Never Again” from the post-Holocaust, post-World War II era, but I was watching it “again.”

John Spencer is chair of urban warfare studies at the Modern War Institute (MWI) at West Point, codirector of MWI’s Urban Warfare Project and host of the “Urban Warfare Project Podcast.” He served for 25 years as an infantry soldier, which included two combat tours in Iraq. He is the author of the book “Connected Soldiers: Life, Leadership, and Social Connection in Modern War” and co-author of “Understanding Urban Warfare.” Follow him on X, at @SpencerGuard. The views expressed in this commentary are his own.

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sofmag.com · by Soldier of Fortune Magazine · December 8, 2023

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com