A Red Wave or a Red Ripple: An overview of Decision Day 2022
History is on the side of Republicans
Republicans started the 2021-2022 election cycle with high expectations. The first election after a presidential victory is traditionally good for the party out of power. Reapportionment and the redistricting process resulting from the 2020 census created additional opportunities for Republican gains.
The real question for Republicans has been how good the 2022 election would be. For Democrats, it’s been whether they could build a firewall around the Senate. Democrats thought they could override the effect of these historical and structural trends when the U.S. Supreme Court overruled the Roe v. Wade decision in June – and for a few months the decision did slow Republicans’ momentum. But elections are about the present and the future, and they are most often about how the economy is impacting each voter.
Americans are in a sour mood
Inflation of over 8% is driving costs higher, and the Federal Reserve Board is tackling inflation by driving interest rates higher too. The economy is slowing down, the stock market has gone down, and some economists predict a recession. Crime in major cities has ballooned and illegal immigration continues unabated. All of this follows right after we went through the worst pandemic since the flu outbreak of 1918.
National issues now drive local campaigns. Republican candidates have mostly focused on economy/inflation, crime, and illegal immigration, while Democratic candidates have mostly focused on abortion rights and concerns about our democratic traditions.
There is every reason to be skeptical about polls given their record over the past few elections, but good polls do at least reflect trends, and often show much more. Three national and reputable polls came out on November 6 and 7, and their findings are fascinating.
The ABC-Washington Post Poll released on Sunday, November 6th showed:
- Republicans seem to be more committed voters. 80% of Republicans have or will vote and 74% of Democrats have or will vote.
- President Biden’s favorability remains underwater. 41% of Americans approve of his job performance and 53% do not approve. Among independents, President Biden’s job approval is at 39%, with 56% who disapprove.
- Generic Republican candidates have a 14-point advantage on how they will handle the economy, a 12-point advantage on how they will handle inflation, and a 20-point advantage on crime. Generic Democratic candidates have a 13-point advantage on abortion and a 19-point advantage on climate change.
An NBC News Poll was also released on Sunday, November 6th, showing:
- 47% of voters want a great deal of change from the way President Biden is leading the country. That is higher than those who held the same feeling right before the first midterm election for President Trump (44%), President Obama (41%), and President Clinton (36%).
- This poll showed President Biden’s favorability at 44%. President Biden has the strongest support among Blacks (78%), urban voters (50%), and women (48%)… and he has the lowest level of support from suburban men (43%), men (38%), white voters (37%), rural voters (29%), and independents (28%).
- 81% of voters say they are either very or somewhat unsatisfied with the state of the economy.
- 72% of voters say the country is headed in the wrong direction.
- Enthusiasm for the election is roughly equal between those voters who support generic Republican candidates and those who support generic Democratic candidates, but enthusiasm is down among Black and youth voters, while enthusiasm is up among seniors.
The Wall Street Journal released their poll on Monday, November 7th, which reported:
- 17% of Black voters said they would support a Republican congressional candidate. By contrast, 8% of Blacks voted for President Trump in 2020 and 8% voted Republican in the 2018 congressional races.
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Latinos also seem to be shifting. The Wall Street Journal poll showed that Democrats held a five-percentage point lead over Republican candidates. However, previous polls showed Latino voters supported President Biden by 28% and Democratic congressional candidates by 31%.
It’s up to the voters
The candidates have been speaking. Now the voters will speak, and they get the last word. We will soon know --
- The voting trends of Blacks, Latinos, suburban women, and youth
- If there was ticket splitting
- If polls this cycle more accurate than recent elections
- Whether Republicans will pick up congressional seats in Deep Blue Democratic states like California, New York, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Oregon, Maine, Illinois, and Washington.
The answers to these and other questions will tell us if it’s going to be a Red Wave or a Red Ripple.
Americans have been through a lot over the last few years. Charlie Cook, Founder of the Cook Political Report, recently said that, “[v]oters are looking for a party that will make things normal again after the pandemic. It looked in 2020 like it was Democrats and Joe Biden who would return us to normal times. Now it looks like the voters will turn to the Republicans.”
Charlie Cook is spot-on. James Carville summed up Americans' sour mood and the best way to understand Decision Day 2022 when he famously quipped in 1993, “It’s the economy, stupid.”
