SHARE:  
Dyer logo.png

Halloween Edition


October is Cybersecurity Month. Whether it’s deliberately tied to the spookiness of Halloween, I do not know. But the level of danger online can be frightening for sure. In fact, the world in general feels shaky at the moment. The news from the Middle East, Ukraine, Congress and Lewsiton are all deeply unsettling. We’ve even lost some of those who have helped us escape our troubles. Jimmy Buffett, Paul Reubens and now Matthew Perry have all died recently. And the markets? The last 90 days have been chaotic, at best, after an AI-fueled start to the year. 


But there is also good economic news. Are there cracks? Sure, but I will point out that unemployment is well below the long term average at 3.8%. Inflation has leveled off dramatically at 3.7%. And last quarter’s annualized GDP growth of 4.9% was truly surprising. Hopefully this all points to a soft (er?) landing by the Federal Reserve. Even if rates remain elevated for longer than anticipated, this gives us investors more options. Bonds and money markets boast rates like we haven’t seen in more than 20 years. Trick or Treat? I guess time will tell.

halloween-header2.gif

Who Wants to be a Millionaire?

The Federal Reserve just published the results of its Survey of Consumer Finances that comes out every three years. The average net worth of American families topped $1 million for the first time. Sure, inflation played a role and the super wealthy skewed the average. But even accounting for inflation, the average American family’s net worth increased 23% since 2019. And the data shows these families own their home, own stocks and even have less debt as a share of income than in 2007. We have evidence of a growing middle class–and just to make everyone mad–this progress spans two very different administrations. The American consumer is doing better than advertised. In many cases, people are doing better economically than they actually feel, which may be a good and creepy place to leave it for now.

Cybersecurity

As Cybersecurity month draws to a close, I thought I would share a couple of ideas of how to stay safe online.


Password managers are such a great tool. Not only do they save you the hassle of trying to remember all your passwords, they help you generate unique and complex passwords for everything you do online. Weak and repeated passwords are usually the easiest way to fall victim to hackers. Even passwords managed by Chrome or iCloud can leave you vulnerable if you lose your device. Last year I switched from LastPass to 1Password and have been very happy, but there are many password managers out there that I encourage you to explore what’s best for you. Where do you keep your passwords?


Careless file sharing is another way people leave themselves open to hacks and identity theft. I hate to say it, but this is some of my most-commonly ignored advice. Please do not email me or anyone else statements, screenshots, account numbers or other sensitive personal information. Take the time to upload your sensitive information using a secure cloud service like Dropbox. If you're unsure how to share files safely, I'm always happy to walk you through it.

candy_ghosts.jpg

Spooky Times for Investors

What do comedy and investing have in common? Well, not very much. The gift of any great comedian is timing. Attempting to time the markets as an investor, however, is not funny. In fact it carries serious risks. I’ve lived through some rough markets and I’ve talked to lots of investors. I don’t know anyone who is a good market timer. The reason they write stories about those who saw the big crash coming, is that they are both unusual and lucky. Every day there is clickbait out there that says, “The lady who called the 1987 crash has a warning for investors.” And the article has to remind you who the person is, because she hasn’t been right about anything since. That isn't because she's gotten stupid. It's because she is just like the rest of us--unable to see the future.


At the moment there is 40% more cash on the sidelines than in 2021–typically a sign of pessimism. But cash reserves are also a bullish indicator seen as the latent fuel for the next market surge. Everyone is giddy about 5% money market rates. For your short term money this is objectively exciting. As a long term strategy, however, cash will not get you where you need to go.


What is my point, you ask? In spite of some objectively good news, I sense a lot of pessimism if not outright fear out there these days. I love this quote. I just looked it up to see who said it. I was pretty sure it was Sir John Templeton. The internet backs me up. Of course it also credits Warren Buffett. Whether it was either of those guys, The Dalai Lama, Mark Twain, Oscar Wilde or Rodney Dangerfield the wisdom remains: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Where I've Found Heebie Jeebies

I’m not well-versed in the classic horror genre. But I do appreciate good story telling that puts you on the edge of your seat. The other day I was flipping through the channels when I came across the Coen brothers’ 2007 classic, No Country for Old Men. It’s based on the book of the same name by Cormac McCarthy (who also died earlier this year). It’s one of the few stories where I thought both the book and the movie were outstanding. There’s so much I love about this story. But the first 3 minutes and 13 seconds of this clip are absolutely captivating. Tell me trouble is coming and make me scared without showing me the trouble itself. When I think of visual storytelling at its best, I think of this scene of Josh Brolin’s character, Llewellyn, holed up in a hotel room. The clip goes beyond the scene I am talking about. Be warned that if you watch beyond the 3:13 mark you’ll see some blood and violence. What's your favorite thrilling movie moment?


Hallway Scene from No Country for Old Men

Thank you for reading. If you liked this content, please share with a friend. You can always reach me by replying to this email or at 704-323-6872.

Visit my Website
Facebook  LinkedIn