In one of two new PONARS Eurasia Policy Memos, Gulnaz Sibgatullina finds Russia’s Muslim leaders united in loyalty to the Kremlin, backing its “special operation.” In a second, Theodore Gerber and Hannah Chapman argue Russian social scientists in exile must be protected and preserved “until conditions in Russia change to allow social science there to resume.”

According to Yoshiko Herrera, the war has not gone as Putin has hoped and the Ukrainian army has shown remarkable resilience and resolve in fighting back. Following reports of Russian atrocities in Bucha and elsewhere, Erik Herron fears more will be discovered as Ukraine regains further territory, making peace harder to achieve. A team of researchers, including Graeme Robertson, has developed a new online tool, Data for Ukraine, to provide early warnings of human rights abuses. The expulsion of Russian diplomats, though an “understandable response to the horrors of war,” may also make diplomacy more difficult, Samuel Charap assesses.

After some confusion at the start of the full-scale war, society has consolidated in support of Putin, says Gulnaz Sharafutdinova. Lauren McCarthy writes that Putin uses law to crackdown on dissent, while avoiding blame for passing unjust laws. Stanislav Markus highlights the importance of “silovarchs” – business elites who amassed wealth through networks in the FSB or the military – who hold positions in the executive branch. Nikolai Petrov, though, argues the system Putin has constructed may fall apart without him.

Reflecting on the recently deceased Vladimir Zhirinovsky’s legacy, Kirill Rogov characterizes him as “one of the creators of the discourse about the new Russia being a great power.” Marlene Laruelle refers to Alexander Dugin’s framing of Russia as a Eurasian power as “national regeneration through violence and war.” She adds on MSNBC that the Russian Orthodox Church plays a crucial role in the ideological roots of the war.

Elizabeth Wishnick reports Beijing has played only a “marginal” role in seeking a diplomatic solution to the war despite President Xi’s statements that China wants to play a part in global governance. Prior to the invasion, Wishnick adds, the Chinese ambassador to Ukraine️ had made a statement affirming China’s belief in Ukraine’s sovereignty. Responding to the success of Russian “whataboutism” in India and China, Peter Rutland lists five reasons why the Russian invasion cannot be compared to US wars.


Find up-to-date analysis and answers to pressing questions on our dedicated webpage covering Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.