With Russian troops forging deeper into Ukraine, a new PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo by Vadim Grishin sees a new stage in Russian foreign policy: war and isolation. This likely means a prolonged standoff with Russia, says David Szakonyi. Roots may include a Kremlin aim for a neutral Ukraine (Tetyana Malyarenko) or a controlling stake in neighboring countries (Nikolay Petrov), Putin’s desire to re-create the “Crimea effect” for his home audience (Petrov), or fear of a resilient, robust, pluralistic democracy next door (Kathryn Stoner). Either way, for Samuel Charap, prior assumptions about Putin’s risk tolerance need to go out the window, and for Keith Darden, Russia cannot go unpunished.

Russian tactics. For Pavel Podvig, Putin’s calling nuclear forces to “combat duty” is unprecedented and irresponsibly dangerous. For Marlene Laruelle and Ivan Grek, Putin’s effort to delegitimate Ukraine with historical claims is likely to backfire on the international stage. His delusions about Ukraine and Ukrainians, writes Oxana Shevel, have shaped his country’s military plans and “will be his undoing.” Jean-François Ratelle calls attention to one of Russia’s psychological operations: making Ukrainians believe thousands of Chechens will arrive for pillaging.

Sanctions’ impact. According to Robert Orttung, for the latest sanctions to work, Russia must be cut off from the global economic system and its high-tech equipment flows. How will they affect the rest of the world? A new PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo by Martin Jirušek argues halting Nord Stream 2 is building EU unity on energy security policy. Any sanction, though, will drastically influence the food on the world market, says Peter Rutland. Maria Snegovaya warns of a potential financial panic that could have unpredictable consequences for the global economy. Mikhail Alexseev says Russian cyberattacks could hit the US like they’ve already hit Ukraine. Elizabeth Wishnick expects China to stay hard-nosed on planned investments in Russia.

Implications for Ukraine. Olexiy Haran says Thursday’s attacks by Russia have united Ukrainians. As Yuri Zhukov describes it, Ukrainian identity is defined in opposition to Russia, with much based on a response to their historical mistreatment by the Russian and Soviet states.

Implications for Putin at home. Samuel Greene sees Putin’s cost-benefit analysis as hinging on domestic politics, and Greene and Graeme Robertson write Putin's rule depends on creating foreign enemies and domestic traitors. For Timothy Frye, Putin has put Russia’s stability at high risk, and Henry Hale sees attacking Ukraine as potentially creating a time bomb for the Kremlin. Maria Popova observes that two-thirds of authoritarian leaders are removed by their own domestic allies. Tomila Lankina argues that the divide among Russia’s people between war opponents and (often duped) supporters has deep historical roots.