In a new PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo, Marat Iliyasov argues Vladimir Putin has constructed an identity based on “glory” and an official version of history that preordained confrontation with Ukraine, Poland, and the Baltic states. Kathleen Collins adds Putin seeks to reestablish the Great Russian Empire. Marlene Laruelle explains that there is no Rasputin feeding Putin’s ideas about Ukraine, but instead myriad intellectual influences and court figures. For Volodymyr Kulyk, such views clash with the Ukrainian people’s desire for independence from Russia.

According to Oxana Shevel, Russian defeat is sure to come sooner or later. For Pavel Podvig, the actual chances of a nuclear war are low, but the threat alone is enabling Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. Scott Radnitz sees Ukraine having the informational advantage. On how the fighting could end, Peter Rutland suggests a Swiss or Austrian-style neutrality for Ukraine could be mutually acceptable.

China is helping Russia, sustained by what Elizabeth Wishnick calls a warm personal relationship between Presidents Xi and Putin, but Xi risks being marginalized by Europeans, says Keith Darden. Alexander Cooley calls for investigating the network of Western firms that provide Russia’s elite with reputation management services.

Polls in Russia show a population divided, but Laruelle notes “supporters” are actually just backing the war they see on television: a limited “operation” to protect Donbas residents rather than a full-scale invasion targeting civilians in Ukraine. In a recent study, Laruelle also argues that interpreting Russia’s conservatism as a top-down phenomenon can obscure a grassroots conservatism with different sources.

Events

The event recording is now viewable for “Ukrainathon,” PONARS Eurasia’s 24-hour marathon of 15-minute expert talks to support Ukraine and a better understanding of Russia’s invasion and its consequences. Concluding at noon last Thursday, it can be found on Facebook and Youtube, with the list of over 100 speakers and chairs here.

Friday, March 25, 9 am-5 pm (EST): PONARS Eurasia Spring Policy Conference, “Domestic Politics in the Shadow of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine” (online and in-person).