THE WEEK ON WALL STREET
Investors rode a rollercoaster of emotions as rising hostilities at the Russian-Ukrainian border sent stocks sharply lower before a powerful late-week rally erased early losses.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was flat (-0.06%), while the Standard & Poor’s 500 edged higher by 0.82%. The Nasdaq Composite index gained 1.08% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, lost an eye-catching 5.72%.1,2,3
GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS
The build-up to Russia’s eventual invasion of Ukraine triggered elevated market volatility, resulting in broad-based selling that sent the S&P 500 into correction territory as the holiday-shortened week of trading began.4
The sell-off culminated on Thursday morning following the overnight incursion of Russian troops into Ukrainian territory, though markets staged a powerful late-day recovery that coincided with President Biden’s announcing fresh sanctions against Russia. The afternoon rebound was remarkable, as the S&P 500 ended 1.5% higher after being down more than 2.6%, while the Nasdaq Composite closed 3.3% higher after dropping nearly 3.5% intraday. Thursday afternoon’s momentum continued into Friday as stocks rallied to end the week in positive territory.5
INVASION IMPLICATIONS
Setting aside the more important aspects of the human cost and damage to world order, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine introduced an acute layer of uncertainty into many layers of the financial markets. The immediate repercussion was the impact on global economic recovery due to rising energy prices, which reduce consumers’ discretionary spending and saddle businesses with higher costs.
The inflationary impact of higher energy and other prices, along with the prospect of decelerating economic growth, also complicates the Fed’s strategy to guide interest rates higher. Already, the probability of a 50 basis point interest rate hike at the Fed’s March 2022 meeting seems less likely than it was just a week ago. Finally, Russia’s actions have raised new concerns over second-order effects that could further unsettle markets, such as a new round of supply-chain disruptions.
BY THE NUMBER$
GAS AND OIL - Revenue from Russia’s crude oil and natural gas production generates more than 40% of the total revenue of the Russian government. Russia is the # 2 global producer of natural gas and the # 3 global producer of crude oil (source: Council on Foreign Relations).
DEFENSE - In President Biden’s State of the Union address tomorrow (3/01/2022), he is expected to ask for a fiscal year 2023 defense budget of $770 billion, i.e., for the 12 months beginning 10/01/2022. Our actual defense spending 10 years earlier in fiscal year 2013 was $633 billion (source: Office of Management and Budget).
CORNHUSKER - The cost of fertilizer makes up 36% of the operating cost for a US farmer growing corn. The price of nitrogen-based fertilizers, a key input into corn production, is in part driven by the rising price of natural gas in the United States (source: Department of Agriculture). 6
THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA
Tuesday: ISM (Institute for Supply Management) Manufacturing Index.
Wednesday: ADP (Automated Data Processing) Employment Report.
Thursday: Factory Orders. Jobless Claims. ISM (Institute for Supply Management) Services Index.
Friday: Employment Situation.
Source: Econoday, February 25, 2022
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.
THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS
Monday: Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID), Zoom Video Communications, Inc. (ZM).
Tuesday: Salesforce.com, Inc. (CRM), Target Corporation (TGT), Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST).
Wednesday: Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR), Snowflake, Inc. (SNOW).
Thursday: Broadcom, Inc. (AVGO), Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST),
Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY), Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL), The Kroger Company (KR).
Source: Zacks, February 25, 2022
Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.
THE WEEKLY RIDDLE
You have a can of soda in your hand and someone tells you to drink the bottom half of it first. How can you do that?
LAST WEEK’S RIDDLE: You go in through one hole, you come out through three holes. Once you're inside you're ready to go outside, but once you're outside you're still inside. What is it?
ANSWER: A Sweater.
