Pending Sales Increase

The national average for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages climbed to 6.7% yesterday afternoon. However, pending sales increased by three to eighty in Deschutes County, and only nineteen days on the market. In Crook County, pending sales more than doubled from seven to fifteen, with forty-one days listed before securing a contract. Although, the five sold properties in Crook County were only on the market for a median of nine days. Jefferson County had six pending sales, up two from last week, with the median days listed at twenty-seven. The three sold homes in Jefferson County were only listed ten days before receiving acceptable offers. 


The active inventory in Deschutes County increased by four to 529. In Crook County, the available homes decreased by four to 117; in Jefferson County, the inventory increased by one to seventy-four. Sold homes in Deschutes County had a median price reduction of -4.66%, while in Jefferson County, the drop was -5.56%. In Crook County, the two sold homes in the median were full-price sales, making the median reduction 0%. The price reductions for the three sold properties in Crook County that did reduce the price to secure an offer were -8.33%, -3.53%, and -1.11%.


Comparing year-to-date sales from this year to 2022 shows a significant decrease in transaction volume. In Crook County, sales went from 135 YTD 2022 to 99 this year, while the median sale price increased from 445k to 465k. In Jefferson County, sales decreased from 109 to fifty-one, with the median sale price at 382k, a decrease of three thousand dollars from the last YTD. In Deschutes County, sales decreased from 1231 to 735, with the median price dropping from 685k to 620k. 


Total sales in Crook County in 2022 were 431, at a median sale price of 455k. In Jefferson County, there were 312 sales at a median of 400k, and in Deschutes County, there were a staggering 4130 sales in 2022 at a median of 680k. The sales volume by the second half of 2022 was down considerably for all three counties as well as the median sale price, except for Jefferson County, where the median price increased slightly during the second half of 2022. This dynamic was in play for the entire country, so take reports of massive changes in YTD numbers with a grain of salt, as buyers were extremely active in the first half of 2022 in anticipation of rising mortgage rates. 


The lowest sales volume of single-family homes in Deschutes County since 1997 (the earliest data in the Central Oregon MLS) was 2,043 in 2008. Most of you will recall that in 2008, we were in the grips of a sub-prime lending-induced housing crash, and the median home price dropped from 399k in 2007 to 280k in 2008 before bottoming out at 176K In 2010. 


The low sales volume of 2007-2009 is attributable to the bottom falling out of the housing market and buyers sitting on the sidelines. Today, buyer demand is strong relative to inventory and couldn't be any different from 2008. However, at the current pace, it is apparent that sales volume in 2023 will be down significantly from the peak of 5,326 sales of single-family homes in Deschutes County in 2020. The results of all this data are firm home prices, although down from the peak last year. However, the median sale price is still considerably higher than just in 2021, when the yearly median price was 603k. In addition, last year's inventory peaked in early August at 972; we will be hard-pressed to match that number this year without a rush of sellers. 


Staying in close contact with your lender and being prepared to act quickly on appealing homes is very important for buyers in this market. Unfortunately, with so few listings, predicting when the next great home might be available is impossible. However, if rates decline later this year, buyer demand may increase considerably relative to the stock of homes for sale. So, believe it or not, now may be the right time to jump in and find your corner of Central Oregon.


Please do not hesitate to reach out whenever you need anything.

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Clicking on the Market Action Index charts below will show how areas in Central Oregon behave in today's market. Every zip code, town, neighborhood, and price range has a unique dynamic, and the Market Trend Reports are a big help in seeing how your community is performing. Please review these reports weekly to follow trends or have me run a detailed analysis for a better view of price activity. Once registered, you can use the search bar at the top of these reports for any city or zip code in the country!

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