As Russia’s February 2022 assault on Ukraine approaches its one-year anniversary, observers should be alert to complexity in public opinion research on Ukraine, argues a new PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo by Kit Rickard, Gerard Toal, Kristin Bakke, and John O’Loughlin.

For Brian Taylor, “the key outcome from the first year of the war is that Ukraine is still standing and has proven its determination to fight on to defend its territory and independence,” and Jordan Gans-Morse argues “the rest of the Western world should recognize how indebted we are to Ukrainians.” Mikhail Alexseev sees a grinding stalemate, Samuel Charap agrees the war could “go on for years and years,” while Olexiy Haran predicts “a lot more blood will be shed, and Putin wants this.” For Maria Popova, the last year has taught us Putin truly believes Ukrainians are Russians and wants all of Ukraine.

Might Ukraine retake Crimea? Arkady Moshes points out that the peninsula’s geography and Russia’s position makes it “difficult to imagine,” though thinks attacks against Russian forces there could yield political and PR victories. Hilary Appel states that a Ukrainian military move on Crimea could trigger a disproportionate response from Putin. Pavel Podvig, though, thinks Russia’s threats may ironically signal nuclear weapons’ obsolescence.

Moshes also argues the West’s lack of clarity and cohesion on its role and aims for the war has made its support inefficient. Sanctions have not yet significantly weakened Putin’s will or ability to wage war, writes Peter Rutland, and Kirill Rogov links Russia’s better-than-expected economic numbers to export revenues and a huge current account surplus. Volodymyr Dubovyk suggests fear of losing Western aid is partly driving Zelensky’s tough rhetoric against corruption, and Jordan Gans-Morse adds “Ukrainians are savvy about the politics and culture of donor countries.”

Richard Arnold writes Russia’s state-organized Cossack movement has played a significant role in boosting Russian morale by bolstering the Kremlin’s war narratives, and Alexseev argues the Kadyrov-Putin relationship is about mutual dependency rather than closeness. For Vladimir Gel’man, the fact that virtually every top Russian official is involved in corruption networks helps ensure loyalty. And research by Marlene Laruelle, Ivan Grek, and Sergey Davydov finds Russia’s “culturalization of political national identity” does not boil down to ethnonationalism.

A report by Kornely Kakachia's Georgian Institute of Politics identifies five potential paths for the war’s future, all posing challenges or risks for Georgia. Rutland finds that 1990s-era hopes that national self-determination would reinforce democratization were misplaced. And Timothy Frye and co-authors COVID-19 fear seems to have spurred demand for state regulation.

Events

See the recordings of Volodymyr Dubovyk’s February 17 talk on “A Year Living Dangerously: Dynamics of Ukraine-US Wartime Relations” and Volha Charnysh’s February 16 presentation on “The Determinants of Assistance to Ukrainian and Syrian Refugees.”

Ukrainathon 2023, a 24-hour marathon event spotlighting Ukrainian resilience, Friday, February 24, 2023, 9 AM – Saturday, February 25, 2023, 9 AM EST.

Save the Date! PONARS Eurasia Spring Policy Conference, Friday, March 3, 2023, 9–5 PM EST.