According to Oleksandra Keudel and Oksana Huss in a new PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo, local authorities’ key role in Ukraine’s resilience shows we need to broaden our thinking about national security to include grassroots factors. Tetyana Malyarenko is similarly struck by Ukrainian society’s willingness to endure hardships for the sake of winning. The public is nevertheless intent on holding its wartime leadership accountable, says Petro Burkovskyi, though Mikhail Alexseev thinks President Volodymyr Zelensky acted quickly to address corruption concerns also because of Ukraine’s dependence on economic and military aid.

Most experts polled by Foreign Affairs, including many PONARS Eurasia members, disagree that the war’s most likely outcome is a “negotiated settlement” that includes Ukrainian territorial concessions. Speaking with Vox, Volodymyr Dubovyk says Ukraine must retake more territory to drive Russia to the negotiating table, though Samuel Charap cautions Russia has reduced its vulnerabilities and dug into its positions. With Miranda Priebe, Charap also calls for minimizing escalation risks while still committing to Ukraine’s future security. For Pavel Baev, developments at the Davos World Economic Forum suggest few are betting on Russia to win in the long term.

Hilary Appel tells Newsweek that German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock’s statement that “we are fighting a war against Russia” is an “important mistake that serves Russia’s interests” by bolstering Moscow’s narrative that the conflict is a NATO-Russia proxy war. Mikhail Troitskiy tells the same publication that Germany’s decision to supply tanks and other powerful weapons to Ukraine is a much bigger deal. With Donald Trump echoing Kremlin warnings that providing sophisticated tanks to Ukraine is a dangerous escalation, Maria Popova finds Russian objections and threats ring hollow, though Erik Herron says his statements may still influence Republicans in Congress and hence U.S. policy.

Mikhail Alexseev observes a “rugged synergy” emerging between the Wagner group, the Russian military, and the Russian state. And while Maria Popova believes possible Russian victory in Vuhledar would have little strategic significance, Alexseev worries that even a small new advance could facilitate future and more important Russian advances.

In a new article, Margarita Zavadskaya and Theodore Gerber conclude that the war has put an end to the brief history of independent social science in Russia. The CIRIGHTS Data Project, co-directed by Mikhail Filippov, released its first global Human Rights Report Card, finding Russia near the bottom of the rankings, along with several other post-Soviet states. Also, the journal Demokratizatsiya asked past contributing authors to reflect on their earlier assessments: Robert Orttung, Arkady Moshes, and Ryhor Nizhnikau find their outlooks on Russia and Belarus even gloomier than before, while Alexander Iskandaryan sees Armenia in an entirely new reality.

Events

New Voices on Eurasia with Volha Charnysh (MIT; Harvard University) on “The Determinants of Assistance to Ukrainian and Syrian Refugees,” Thursday, February 16, 2023, 4–5 PM EST.

Save the Date! PONARS Eurasia Spring Policy Conference, Friday, March 3, 2023, 9 AM–5 PM EST.

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Call for Applications: IERES Petrach Program on Ukraine Fellowship, Resident and Non-Resident Opportunities. The deadline to apply is Friday, February 17, 2023.

Call for Applications: Russian Global Academy, Fellowships and support to Russian scholars in exile. Deadlines from February 28, 2023.