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Quotes of the Day:
“I don’t like that man. I must get to know him better."
- Abraham Lincoln
It's part of a writer's profession, as it's part of a spy's profession, to prey on the community to which he's attached, to take away information - often in secret - and to translate that into intelligence for his masters, whether it's his readership or his spy masters. And I think that both professions are perhaps rather lonely.
- John le Carre
"A great many people think they are thinking when they are merely rearranging their prejudices."
- William James
1. North Korea sends missile soaring over Japan in escalation
2. Activity at N. Korea's Punggye-ri suggest possible additional tests: U.S. monitor
3. North Korea’s Arsenal Has Grown Rapidly. Here’s What’s in It.
4. S. Korean F-15K fighter fires 2 JADAM precision bombs in response to N.K. missile launch
5. S. Korea unveils high-power ballistic missile
6. S. Korea, U.S. to relocate combined command to Pyeongtaek by this month
7. Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker: October - KOREA
8. Latest missile from North goes farther than all others before
9. South Korea: MBC network sued for defamation by ruling party
10. Combined Forces Command prepares to say bye to Yongsan
11. South Korean and Japanese defense stocks are rallying after North Korea fired a missile over Japan
12. Get over the hot-mic moment
13. North Korea fires missile over Japan in longest-ever test
14. U.S. calls North Korea launch 'dangerous'; pledges to defend allies
15. An overgrown border proves curtain-twitching North Korea is retreating into nuclear paranoia
16. N. Korea unresponsive to regular contact via inter-Korean liaison line: ministry
17. Global Upheaval As Opportunity: North Korea Rebuilding Ties With Russia And China – Analysis
18. Kishida Pledges 'Close Communication' with Seoul
19. N Korea’s latest missile salvo exposes US impotence
1. North Korea sends missile soaring over Japan in escalation
Here is what I provided to some press queries last evening.
I think this is part of the regime's three major elements of its strategy: political warfare, blackmail diplomacy, and development of advanced warfighting capabilities. These are mutually supporting and reinforcing.
Clearly, Kim is demonstrating his warfighting capabilities which focused on subverting South Korea and the ROK/US and ROK/Japan alliances. This supports blackmail diplomacy in that Kim uses threats, increased tensions and provocations to attempt to extort concessions, e.g., sanctions relief from the US and the international community. And this has the practical benefit of improving the regime's warfighting capabilities. Why is Kim doing this now? He may be taking advantage of the chaotic world situation and believe that the US and its allies will make concessions to try to maintain stability int her region so as not to compete with Putin's War in Ukraine or the increasing tensions in the Taiwan Strait. Kim could be attempting to reinforce the new nuclear law announced on September 8th. Kim may be upset that neither Biden or Yoon mentioned the north's nuclear program in their speeches at the UN General assembly.
The ROK, Japan, and the US should not overreact. Here are 6 steps to consider (from my article at the link):
The alliance should view provocations as an opportunity rather than a threat. They provide the alliance with the opportunity to demonstrate that Kim Jong Un ‘s political warfare and military strategy will fail. This is done first and foremost by not making any concessions.
The ROK and U.S. should make sure the press, pundits, and public understand that this is a fundamental part of North Korean strategy and that it conducts provocations for specific objectives. It does not represent a policy failure; it represents a deliberate policy decision by Kim Jong-un to continue to execute his political warfare strategy. The following is a response framework for consideration:
First, do not overreact. But do not succumb to the criticism of those who recommend ending exercises. Always call out Kim Jong-un’s strategy... As Sun Tzu would advise- “ …what is of supreme importance in war is to attack the enemy’s strategy; … next best is to disrupt his alliances.” Make sure the international community, the press, and the public in the ROK and the U.S. and the elite and the Korean people living in the north know what Kim is doing.
Second, never ever back down in the face of North Korean increased tension, threats, and provocations.
Third, coordinate an alliance response. There may be times when a good cop-bad cop approach is appropriate. Try to mitigate the internal domestic political criticisms that will inevitably occur in Seoul and DC. Do not let those criticisms negatively influence policy and actions.
Fourth, exploit weakness in North Korea – create internal pressure on Kim and the regime from his elite and military. Always work to drive a wedge among the party, elite, and military (which is a challenge since they are all intertwined and inextricably linked).
Fifth, demonstrate strength and resolve. Do not be afraid to show military strength. Never misunderstand the north’s propaganda – do not give in to demands to reduce exercises or take other measures based on North Korean demands that would in any way reduce the readiness of the combined military forces. The north does not want an end to the exercises because they are a threat, they want to weaken the alliance and force U.S. troops from the peninsula which will be the logical result if they are unable to effectively train.
Sixth, depending on the nature of the provocation, be prepared to initiate a decisive response using the most appropriate tools, e.g., diplomatic, military, economic, information and influence activities, cyber, etc., or a combination.
One of the key elements of superior political warfare is attacking the enemy’s strategy. This requires recognizing it, understanding it, exposing it, and attacking the Kim fsmaily regime strategy with information.
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/09/north-koreas-missile-tests-are-part-of-a-political-warfare-and-blackmail-strategy/
North Korea sends missile soaring over Japan in escalation
AP · by HYUNG-JIN KIM, KIM TONG-HYUNG and MARI YAMAGUCHI · October 3, 2022
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — North Korea on Tuesday conducted its longest-ever weapons test, a nuclear-capable ballistic missile that flew over Japan and could reach the U.S. Pacific territory of Guam and beyond, forcing the Japanese government to issue evacuation alerts and halt trains.
The South Korean and U.S. militaries responded by launching fighter jets which fired weapons at a target off South Korea’s west coast in a show of strength against North Korea.
The North Korean missile launch was its most provocative weapons demonstration this year, as it pushes to develop a fully fledged nuclear arsenal capable of threatening the U.S. mainland and its allies with the goal of wresting concessions from those countries, some experts say.
North Korea has test-fired about 40 missiles over about 20 different launch events this year as its leader, Kim Jong Un, refuses to return to nuclear diplomacy with the United States.
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The United States strongly condemned North Korea’s “dangerous and reckless decision” to launch what it described as a “long-range ballistic missile” over Japan.
“The United States will continue its efforts to limit (North Korea’s) ability to advance its prohibited ballistic missile and weapons of mass destruction programs, including with allies and U.N. partners,” National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said in a statement.
South Korea and Japan earlier said the missile had an intermediate or longer range. If the launch involved a long-range missile, it could be a test of a weapon capable of targeting the U.S. homeland, some experts say.
The launch is the fifth round of weapons tests by North Korea in the past 10 days. The testing spree is an apparent response to two sets of military drills -- one between Washington and Seoul and the other involving Washington, Seoul and Tokyo -- off the Korean Peninsula’s east coast last week.
North Korea regards such drills involving the United States as an invasion rehearsal. It was expected to react strongly this time because both exercises involved a U.S. aircraft carrier, which North Korea views as more provocative.
Japanese authorities alerted residents in its northeastern regions to evacuate to shelters, in the first “J-alert” since 2017 when North Korea fired an intermediate-range Hwasong-12 missile twice over Japan in a span of weeks during a previous run of weapons tests.
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Trains were suspended in the Hokkaido and Aomori regions until the government issued a notice that the North Korean missile appeared to have landed in the Pacific. In Sapporo city, the prefectural capital of Japan’s northernmost main island of Hokkaido, subways were also temporarily halted, with stations packed with morning commuters.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida told reporters the launch “is a reckless act and I strongly condemn it.”
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol said North Korea’s “reckless nuclear provocations” would meet a stern response from the South and the broader international community. His military separately warned that North Korea’s repeated missile launches would deepen its international isolation and prompt Seoul and Washington to bolster their deterrence capacities.
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Later Tuesday, four U.S. F-16 fighter jets and four South Korean F-15s conducted a joint strike drill in which one of the South Korean planes fired two precision-guided Joint Direct Attack Munition bombs into an island target. The exercise was aimed at demonstrating the allies’ ability to accurately strike North Korean targets with “overwhelming force,” the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff said.
According to South Korean and Japanese estimates, the North Korean missile fired from the its northern province bordering China traveled 4,500-4,600 kilometers (2,800-2,860 miles) at a maximum altitude of 970-1,000 kilometers (600-620 miles). Japanese Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada said it landed in the Pacific about 3,200 kilometers (1,990 miles) off the northern Japanese coast and that there were no reports of damage to Japanese aircraft or ships.
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South Korea’s Defense Ministry said the missile flew farther than any other weapon fired by North Korea. Before Tuesday’s launch, the 3,700-kilometer (2,300 miles) -long flight of a Hwasong-12 in 2017 was North Korea’s longest. It has previously tested intercontinental ballistic missiles at steep angles so they flew shorter to avoid neighboring countries.
The missile’s flight distance shows it has enough range to hit Guam, home to U.S. military bases that have sent advanced warplanes to the Korean Peninsula in shows of force during past periods of tension with North Korea. In 2017, North Korea threatened to make “an enveloping fire” near Guam with Hwasong-12 missiles amid rising animosities with the then-Trump administration.
North Korea last test-fired a Hwasong-12 missile in January. At the time, it said the launch was meant to verify the overall accuracy of the weapon.
Lee Choon Geun, an honorary research fellow at South Korea’s Science and Technology Policy Institute, said Tuesday’s launch of a suspected Hwasong-12 missile would demonstrate a capacity that “truly places Guam within striking distance.” He said North Korea likely wanted to confirm the missile’s operational capabilities as it is being mass-produced.
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Kim Dong-yub, a professor at Seoul’s University of North Korean Studies, said North Korea could have tested the Hwasong-12 again, or even an intercontinental ballistic missile, closer to what would be a normal ballistic trajectory but shorter than its full range. If it was an ICBM, the purpose of the launch would be to test whether the warhead could survive the harsh conditions of atmospheric reentry, Kim said.
The missiles fired during the past four rounds of launches were short-range and fell in the waters between the Korean Peninsula and Japan. Those missiles are capable of hitting targets in South Korea.
Heo Tae-keun, South Korea’s deputy minister of national defense policy, told lawmakers Tuesday that North Korea is preparing to test a new liquid-fueled ICBM and a submarine-launched ballistic missile as well. He said North Korea also maintains a readiness to conduct a nuclear test in what would be its first such bomb detonation in five years and its seventh in total.
Last month, North Korea adopted a new law authorizing the preemptive use of nuclear weapons in some cases, a move that showed its increasingly aggressive nuclear doctrine. Last Saturday, Yoon warned of a “resolute, overwhelming response” from South Korean and U.S. militaries if North Korea uses nuclear weapons.
Some foreign experts say North Korea needs to master a few remaining technologies to acquire functioning nuclear-armed missiles. Each new test pushes it closer to being able to reach the U.S. mainland and its allies with a host of missiles of varying range.
Some experts say North Korean leader Kim will eventually will return to diplomatic talks and use his enlarged arsenal to pressure Washington to accept his country as a nuclear state, a recognition that he thinks is necessary to win the lifting of international sanctions and other concessions.
___
Yamaguchi reported from Tokyo.
___
More AP Asia-Pacific coverage is available at https://apnews.com/hub/asia-pacific
AP · by HYUNG-JIN KIM, KIM TONG-HYUNG and MARI YAMAGUCHI · October 3, 2022
2. Activity at N. Korea's Punggye-ri suggest possible additional tests: U.S. monitor
Pay attention to those missiles, do not look over here.
The detailed update from CSIS' Beyond Parallel is at this link: https://beyondparallel.csis.org/punggye-ri-update-continued-activity-near-tunnel-no-4/
Activity at N. Korea's Punggye-ri suggest possible additional tests: U.S. monitor | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · October 4, 2022
By Byun Duk-kun
WASHINGTON, Oct. 3 (Yonhap) -- Recent satellite imagery show continued activity at North Korea's main nuclear test facility in Punggye-ri that may suggest preparations for future tests, a U.S. monitor said Monday.
The image, taken Sept. 29, shows possible work to clear the area in front of a dismantled underground tunnel, which could allow additional nuclear tests in the future, according to Beyond Parallel, a project of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank.
"The construction of the access road to Tunnel No. 4 (also known as the West Portal) has resumed, and the road is now cleared to the area directly in front of the collapsed portal," it said.
North Korea had dismantled the Punggye-ri nuclear test site in 2018 as a demonstration of its willingness to denuclearize.
The web project earlier said the North is believed to have repaired Tunnel No. 3.
"There is no new activity at Tunnel No. 3. This is expected because both the United States and South Korea assess North Korea as having finished all preparations for conducting a nuclear test using this tunnel," it said.
Pyongyang has conducted six nuclear tests, with its last nuclear test taking place in September 2017.
South Korea's spy agency has said if the North makes a decision to conduct its seventh nuclear test it would likely be between Oct. 16 and Nov. 7.
"The timing of a seventh nuclear test now remains solely within the hands of Kim Jong-un," Beyond Parallel said in its latest report.
It said the detected activity at Tunnel No. 4 may be for one of two reasons -- an expansion of North Korea's nuclear testing capabilities beyond Tunnel No. 3 or a component of a strategic deception plan.
It added the latest satellite image showed no activity at the two remaining tunnels at Punggye-ri, Tunnel No. 1 and Tunnel No. 2.
bdk@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · October 4, 2022
3. North Korea’s Arsenal Has Grown Rapidly. Here’s What’s in It.
Photos and graphic at the link: https://www.nytimes.com/article/north-korea-arsenal-nukes.html
North Korea’s Arsenal Has Grown Rapidly. Here’s What’s in It.
The country has one of the largest standing armies in the world, but much of its equipment is old. Leaders have sought to make up for that shortcoming by building new weapons.
By Choe Sang-Hun and Victoria Kim
Oct. 4, 2022,
3:34 a.m. ET
nytimes.com · by Victoria Kim · October 4, 2022
A photo released by North Korean state media in 2017 purportedly showing Kim Jong-un watching a Hwasong-12 missile launch.Credit...Korean Central News Agency
SEOUL — North Korea has test-fired a flurry of missiles in recent weeks, culminating Tuesday with the launch of an intermediate-range ballistic missile over Japan into the Pacific Ocean. The test missile, which traveled farther than any previous rocket launched by the country, was the latest demonstration of the North’s growing and increasingly sophisticated military arsenal.
The escalation comes as its leader, Kim Jong-un, has sought to solidify the country’s stance as a nuclear-armed power and his position at its helm. Last month, North Korea adopted a new law saying it would launch a nuclear strike “automatically and immediately” if the command and control system for its nuclear forces — an apparent reference to Mr. Kim’s leadership — was put in danger.
As the risk of nuclear war grows once again with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Mr. Kim earlier this year pledged to expand the North’s nuclear arsenal “at the fastest possible speed.” He said that it was not merely a deterrent but could be used “if any forces try to violate the fundamental interests of our state.”
North Korea has carried out 23 weapons tests so far this year, involving a total of 43 ballistic and cruise missiles. It conducted four tests just last week, in apparent protest of joint military exercises between the U.S., South Korea and Japan.
President Biden has warned of “responses” if North Korea continues to escalate tensions on the Korean Peninsula, but his calls for additional United Nations sanctions earlier this year were blocked by Russia and China. The international community and the United States have repeatedly tried both sanctions and dialogue to persuade North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons programs. Neither has worked.
Mr. Kim, the North Korean leader, said last month there would “no longer be any bargaining over our nuclear power.”
While it’s difficult to get a clear, up-to-date picture of North Korea’s military capabilities, analysts and observers agree that in the decade under Mr. Kim’s rule, North Korea has rapidly expanded its nuclear program and modernized its missile fleet. The expansion of the arsenal is a growing threat to the United States and its allies in the region. Here’s what’s in it.
There are an increasing number of nuclear warheads.
North Korea’s ballistic missiles can carry nuclear warheads, and the country conducted six increasingly sophisticated underground nuclear tests between 2006 and 2017. The last four of them happened under Mr. Kim.
This year, Washington and Seoul have repeatedly warned that North Korea is gearing up for another nuclear test at Punggye-ri, where the North conducted all of its previous underground nuclear tests.
Its last and most powerful nuclear test was conducted in September 2017, when North Korea claimed to have detonated a thermonuclear, or hydrogen, bomb. Estimates of the device’s explosive power ranged from 50 to 300 kilotons.
A mere 100 kilotons would make the test six times as powerful as the bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945.
North Korea has extracted plutonium, an atomic bomb fuel, from its Soviet-designed nuclear reactor in Yongbyon, north of Pyongyang. It also runs centrifuges to produce weapons-grade enriched uranium, another bomb fuel.
As of 2021, North Korea had enough fissile material for 40 to 50 nuclear warheads and could produce enough for six or seven bombs a year, according to an estimate by the Arms Control Association. The United Nations’ nuclear watchdog last year said that North Korea may be preparing to ramp up its production of plutonium and highly enriched uranium in Yongbyon.
Its missiles can fly longer ranges.
North Korea demonstrated the biggest strides in its weapons capabilities in 2017.
That year, the country fired its intermediate-range ballistic missile, Hwasong-12, over Japan and threatened an “enveloping” strike around the American territory of Guam. It also test-fired Hwasong-14 and Hwasong-15, the country’s first intercontinental ballistic missiles.
After 2017, Mr. Kim stopped testing nuclear weapons and long-range missiles but threatened to end his moratorium when talks with President Trump collapsed in 2019.
During a nighttime military parade in the fall of 2020, North Korea displayed a new, untested I.C.B.M. that looked bigger than any of the previous ones.
In March, North Korea appeared to conduct its most powerful I.C.B.M. test to date. While state media called it the larger Hwasong-17, showcasing the missile in a Hollywood-style propaganda video, South Korea later said it appeared to be the older Hwasong-15. The South said that clips and photos of the launch were faked to exaggerate Mr. Kim’s weapons achievements for a domestic audience.
The biggest unanswered question is whether North Korea has mastered the technology needed to send an intercontinental nuclear warhead into space and then guide it back through the earth’s atmosphere to its target. North Korea has yet to demonstrate that its warhead can survive the intense heat and friction created by re-entry.
Its weapons are getting more sophisticated.
When North Korea resumed missile tests in 2019 following the collapse of the Kim-Trump talks, the tests featured three new weapons, code-named KN-23, KN-24 and KN-25 by outside experts.
They each marked big advances in North Korea’s short-range ballistic missile program.
Unlike its older missiles that used liquid fuel, all three of the new missiles used solid fuel. The new solid-fuel weapons, mounted on mobile launchers, are easier to transport and hide and take less time to prepare. And at least two of them, KN-23 and KN-24, could perform low-altitude maneuvers, making them harder to intercept.
At a military parade in 2021, North Korea displayed what looked like a bigger, upgraded version of KN-23. Photos released by the North Korean media indicate that it was the newly developed tactical guided missile North Korea launched in March of that year.
The new missile was developed to be larger than KN-23 in order to carry a bigger warhead and more fuel. North Korea claimed that the missile could carry a 2.5-ton warhead. South Korea’s defense minister later admitted that his military missed part of the North Korean missile’s trajectory because of its midair maneuvering.
North Korea also test-launched “long-range cruise missiles” in September 2021. It called them a “strategic weapon,” indicating that it would arm the new missile with nuclear warheads. Also in 2021, North Korea began testing what it called a ballistic missile with a detachable “hypersonic” gliding warhead.
The country’s missile tests have demonstrated that they were becoming harder to intercept.
It has also been testing submarine-launched ballistic missiles since 2015.
During military parades in 2020 and 2021, North Korea displayed what looked like two upgraded versions of its Pukguksong submarine-launched ballistic missiles. It currently has only one submarine that can launch a ballistic missile but says it is building a new one with greater capabilities.
The arsenal is no bargaining chip, Kim Jong-un says.
North Korea has one of the largest standing armies in the world, with more than one million soldiers. But much of its equipment is old and obsolete, and the military lacks fuel and spare parts.
It has sought to make up for its shortcomings by building nuclear weapons, which it says are primarily a deterrent.
In a speech before the Supreme People’s Assembly in September, Mr. Kim said the North would not give up its nuclear weapons as long as nuclear weapons and “imperialism” exist on the Earth. He said: “We have drawn the line of no retreat regarding our nuclear weapons so that there will be no longer any bargaining over them.”
“Pyongyang has been in a dizzying sprint to build an arsenal that contains the kinds of advanced capabilities you would find in the United States or Russia,” said Adam Mount, senior fellow at the Federation of American Scientists. “But for the most part, these have been single-serving demonstrations: Pyongyang tests the system once then moves onto the next one. It’s less clear whether they will complete testing or deployment of any or all of these systems.”
nytimes.com · by Victoria Kim · October 4, 2022
4. S. Korean F-15K fighter fires 2 JADAM precision bombs in response to N.K. missile launch
Excerpts:
The strike package consisted of four F-15Ks and four U.S. F-16 fighters.
"Through the combined flight of the air strike package and precision strike drills, South Korea and the United States demonstrated their will to respond sternly to any Northern threats as well as their capabilities to conduct a precision strike at the origin of provocations based on the alliance's overwhelming forces," the JCS said in a press release.
S. Korean F-15K fighter fires 2 JADAM precision bombs in response to N.K. missile launch | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · October 4, 2022
SEOUL, Oct. 4 (Yonhap) -- A South Korean F-15K fighter fired two JADAM precision bombs at a firing range on a Yellow Sea island on Tuesday, in response to North Korea's intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) launch earlier in the day, the military said.
The Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said that the F-15K dropped the Joint Direct Attack Munition bombs at a target in the range on the uninhabited island of Jikdo following air drills with U.S. warplanes in a combined strike package.
The strike package consisted of four F-15Ks and four U.S. F-16 fighters.
"Through the combined flight of the air strike package and precision strike drills, South Korea and the United States demonstrated their will to respond sternly to any Northern threats as well as their capabilities to conduct a precision strike at the origin of provocations based on the alliance's overwhelming forces," the JCS said in a press release.
The North fired an IRBM from Mupyong-ri in its northern province of Jagang in its first launch of an IRBM in eight months. The missile flew some 4,500 kilometers at an apogee of around 970 km at a top speed of Mach 17, according to the JCS.
sshluck@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · October 4, 2022
5. S. Korea unveils high-power ballistic missile
S. Korea unveils high-power ballistic missile
donga.com
Posted October. 03, 2022 07:26,
Updated October. 03, 2022 07:26
S. Korea unveils high-power ballistic missile. October. 03, 2022 07:26. by Jin-Woo Shin niceshin@donga.com.
The South Korean military unveiled for the first time a high-power ballistic missile at an event marking Armed Forces Day on Saturday. Revealing an eight-second video clip showing the firing of the missile in the introduction of the Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation (KMPR), one of the Korean-style three-pillar systems (incapacitate, punish and retaliate), the military said, “KMPR includes a high-power Hyunmoo missile that boasts the world’s largest warhead.”
Notably, the missile is designed for the cold launch method, which springs up from the transporter erector launcher before igniting, a feature that draws keen attention from watchers. The military stopped short of disclosing the missile’s specifications, including the warhead's weight this time. Still, it could be the missile whose warhead weighs up to eight tons, which is under development by Korea’s Agency for Defense Development. “If North Korea attempts to use nuclear weapons, it will only face a stern and overwhelming response from the South Korea-U.S. alliance and our military,” President Yoon Suk-yeol said in the commemorative ceremony for the first Armed Forces Day since his inauguration.
On Saturday morning, North Korea fired two short-range ballistic missiles toward waters in the East Sea from a site in Sunan, Pyongyang. Pyongyang has thus made the fourth ballistic missile provocation in just a week. The missiles flew 350 kilometers. It is a distance that can strike the Gyeryongdae military base in South Chungcheong Province in the South, where President Yoon and others attended the ceremony. It was the first time the North fired a ballistic missile on Armed Forces Day in the South.
한국어
donga.com
6. S. Korea, U.S. to relocate combined command to Pyeongtaek by this month
Lost in all the noise is the fact that the ROK/US CFC has not been located as a whole in one location for some years now.
This is a very welcome and important development.
The current members of CFC have never experienced the many intangible benefits of working side by side their counterparts every day. You cannot just form the HQ twice a year at Ulchi Freedom Shield and Key Resolve/Foal Eagle and expect to maintain the greatest bilateral command in ROK and US history.
Our ROK counterparts are going to be the ones paying the price as they will likely be commuting to Camp Humphreys and while the US staff has the benefit of their families on Camp Humphreys the ROK staff's families will remain in Seoul. They will not "PCS" to Humphreys.The ROK staff will probably end up staying in quarters in Pyeongtaek and going home to Seoul perhaps one or maybe two weekends a month. This is going to have a long term negative effect on ROK personnel assignments to the ROK/US CFC. I hope we can understand the impact of CFC at Humphreys and appreciate the challenges it has created for our allies.
S. Korea, U.S. to relocate combined command to Pyeongtaek by this month
The Korea Times · October 4, 2022
UH-60 Blackhawk helicopters fly at the U.S. Army base Camp Humphreys in Pyeongtaek, 65 kilometers south of Seoul, in this file photo taken Aug. 22. Yonhap
The South Korea-U.S. Combined Forces Command (CFC) plans to complete the relocation of its headquarters in Seoul to a key U.S. military base south of the capital by the end of this month, the defense ministry said Tuesday.
Seoul and Washington agreed late last year to move the CFC headquarters to Camp Humphreys in Pyeongtaek, 70 kilometers south of the capital, within this year in a relocation that would end 44 years of its presence at the heart of Seoul.
More than 700 South Korean and U.S. personnel of the CFC will move to the new headquarters starting early this month, according to the ministry.
"Through the relocation, the CFC plans to establish an even stronger combined defense system based on a strengthened alliance spirit and operational efficiency in Pyeongtaek, the new cradle of the alliance," it said in a statement.
The construction of the CFC headquarters building was completed last month with a budget of 32.2 billion won ($22.42 million).
Launched in 1978, the CFC has been the allies' core warfighting headquarters tasked with countering potential North Korean provocations and aggression.
The CFC is currently led by a four-star U.S. general. But after the envisioned conditions-based transfer of wartime operational control from Washington to Seoul, a South Korean general is to lead the command with a U.S. general taking a supporting role. (Yonhap)
The Korea Times · October 4, 2022
7. Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker: October - KOREA
Access the foreign policy tracker here: https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2022/10/03/biden-administration-foreign-policy-tracker-october/#korea
Korea
By David Maxwell
Previous Trend: Positive
With the passage of Pyongyang’s new “nuclear policy law” on September 8, Kim Jong Un made clear that he has no intention of de-nuclearizing North Korea. The ROK-U.S. alliance is at an inflection point, and it may require major revisions to traditional thinking about diplomatic engagement with the North. In the coming months, the allies should carefully consider crafting a new strategy and policy for security on the Korean Peninsula.
At the UN General Assembly, President Biden and his South Korean counterpart, Yoon Suk-yeol, presented forward-looking visions for security. Yoon did not address North Korean issues, and Biden made only a passing reference to sanctions on Pyongyang. It appears this was a coordinated action designed to undermine the Kim family regime’s desire to be legitimized as a nuclear state.
The United States deployed the USS Ronald Reagan carrier battle group for ROK-U.S. combined training in late September as part of the alliance’s first major naval exercise in five years. This followed the resumption in August of the annual combined exercise Ulchi Freedom Shield, which is critical to sustaining military readiness. As if to put an exclamation point on its new policy, express its displeasure with the naval exercise, and “welcome” Vice President Kamala Harris’ September 29 visit to South Korea, the North launched seven short-range ballistic missiles on September 25, 28, 29, and October 1.
On the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, Yoon met with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. South Korea continues to try to improve relations with Japan through high-level engagement, which supports the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy’s calls for improved trilateral cooperation. However, significant friction between Japan and South Korea remains.
8. Latest missile from North goes farther than all others before
Tuesday
October 4, 2022
dictionary + A - A
Latest missile from North goes farther than all others before
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2022/10/04/national/northKorea/Korea-IRBM-Hwasong12/20221004184821963.html
A photo of the Hwasong-12 intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) released by Pyongyang's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) following a test in May 2017. The IRBM fired on Tuesday morning was likely the same type, according to experts. [YONHAP]
North Korea fired a missile that flew farther than any before — 4,600 kilometers (2,850 miles) — and South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol warned of a "resolute" response.
The intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) travelled over Japan before landing in the Pacific Ocean, reaching an apex of 1,000 kilometers and a terminal speed of Mach 17 in its final re-entry phase, according to South Korean military authorities.
The test triggered a nationwide emergency alert in Japan — known as a J-Alert — for the first time in five years.
Seoul's Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said that the South Korean military detected the launch of a single IRBM from Mupyong-ri in Chagang Province at 7:23 a.m. Tuesday morning.
Experts believe the IRBM launched Tuesday to be the same Hwasong-12-type missile last fired in January. The missile in that test flew some 800 kilometers and reached an apex of 2,000 kilometers.
In response to the test, a South Korean F-15K fighter fired two Joint Direct Attack Munition (Jadam) guided bombs at a firing range on the unhabited island of Jikdo in the Yellow Sea on Tuesday, the South Korean military said.
The JCS said that the F-15K dropped the Jadam bombs on Jikdo following air drills with U.S. warplanes in a joint strike group consisting of four South Korean F-15Ks and four U.S. F-16 fighters.
In comments to reporters, South Korean President Yoon said, "Such reckless nuclear provocations will be met with a resolute response from our military and our allies, as well as the international community."
The president attended a National Security Council (NSC) meeting that later issued a statement "strongly condemning" the launch, calling it a clear violation of United Nations Security Council resolutions and a serious threat to peace on the Korean Peninsula, in Northeast Asia and beyond, the presidential office said.
"South Korea clearly states that North Korea's continued provocations cannot be overlooked and will come at a cost, while we will seek various measures against North Korea, including strengthened sanctions within the international community, based on close cooperation with the United States," according to a statement from the NSC.
The NSC meeting was presided over by National Security Adviser Kim Sung-han and attended by presidential chief of staff Kim Dae-ki, Foreign Minister Park Jin and Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup, among others.
Kim Sung-han held separate telephone discussions with his U.S. counterpart, Jake Sullivan, and Japanese counterpart, Takeo Akiba, about the launch, according to the presidential office.
Washington also condemned North Korea's missile launch over Japan as "dangerous and reckless" and pledged to defend its allies South Korea and Japan, but said it remained open to talks with Pyongyang.
"This action is destabilizing and shows the DPRK's blatant disregard for United Nations Security Council resolutions and international safety norms," White House National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said in statement, referring to the North by the initials of its official name, Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
Tuesday's test was the North's fifth test in 10 days.
The North launched one short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) on Sept. 25, then two last Wednesday, another two the following day and two on Saturday.
The last time a J-Alert was triggered in Japan was in August 2017, when Pyongyang launched a Hwasong-12 IRBM that flew through Japanese airspace.
Special alerts were issued to residents of Aomori Prefecture and the island of Hokkaido telling them to take cover in buildings or underground shelters as the missile flew overhead.
Loudspeakers in Tokyo blared warnings to people to look out for falling debris, but commuters in Tokyo appeared calm in one video posted to Twitter from a user in Ichigaya Station in the morning.
The Tohoku-Hokkaido bullet train route was suspended between Shin-Aomori station and Morioka station as a precaution, but later resumed operations.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida described the launch as a "violent act," while Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada said Japan would not rule out any option to strengthen its defenses including "counterattack capabilities."
The ongoing spate of missile tests by Pyongyang came after Seoul and Washington wrapped up a joint naval exercise involving the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan, as well as a trilateral anti-submarine exercise with Tokyo last week.
BY MICHAEL LEE [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]
9. South Korea: MBC network sued for defamation by ruling party
South Korea: please stop this madness. Protect free press, do not attack it.
Just because Trump is suing CNN does not mean you should be suing the Korean media.
04 October 2022
South Korea: MBC network sued for defamation by ruling party
https://www.ifj.org/media-centre/news/detail/category/press-releases/article/south-korea-mbc-network-sued-for-defamation-by-ruling-party.html
The ruling People Power Party (PPP) of the Republic of Korea has launched several intimidatory public and legal attacks against public broadcaster Munhwa Broadcasting Corporation (MBC), accusing the outlet of misreporting President Yoon Suk-yeol’s remarks during a trip to New York. The International Federation of Journalists (IFJ) joins its affiliate, the Journalists Association of Korea (JAK), in condemning the censuring of MBC and other Korean media in a clear violation of press freedom.
Park Dae-chul (2nd L), lawmaker from South Korea's ruling People Power Party, speaks to the media as his party files a complaint against MBC TV with the prosecution at the Supreme Prosecutors' Office in Seoul on September 29, 2022. Credit: Jung Yeon-Je / AFP
Following a meeting with United States President Joe Biden, President Yoon was heard on a live microphone appearing to use offensive language in reference to US President Joe Biden’s ability to effectively pass legislation. Though the audio was obscured due to noise, MBC TV subtitles interpreted President Yoon’s remarks as, “If those [expletive] do not pass it in the [parliament], [Biden] will lose face.”
Following the broadcast, PPP representatives stated that MBC’s subtitles had unlawfully misrepresented the comments of President Yoon, claiming he was instead referring to pending legislation in the Republic of Korea’s National Assembly.
On September 26, PPP lawmakers announced they would pursue legal action against the public broadcaster and file complaints through the Press Arbitration Commission and the Korea Communications Standards Commission. Lawmakers alleged MBC’s reporting harmed the ‘national interest’, demanding the resignation of MBC CEO Park Sung-Je and an official apology. Later that day, a PPP-affiliated member of the Seoul Metropolitan Council filed an official police complaint accusing MBC editors, reporters and CEO Park Sung-Je of defaming the president
PPP officials also claimed MBC’s reporting constituted ‘fake news’, arguing that the public broadcaster damaged the Republic of Korea’s security and diplomatic standing and alleged a possible tie between MBC and the opposition Democratic Party.
On September 28, PPP lawmakers conducted a protest outside the Sangam offices of the MBC Network, holding a press conference while picketing and, on September 29, four people, including the president of MBC and the head of the press, were charged with defamation and other charges to the prosecution. The exercise was met with counter-protests, with journalists and media workers’ associations criticising the exercise as performative, intimidatory and an ‘excuse to take control of broadcasting’.
The press associations of five broadcasters in South Korea released a joint statement on September 30 criticising the actions of the president’s office as an attack on press freedom, highlighting the hypocrisy and dangerous legal precedent set by targeting one news outlet.
The JAK said: “The Journalists Association of Korea strongly supports the efforts of journalists who faithfully practice the media's mandate of monitoring and criticizing power. In addition, it declares that it will fight strongly against the dishonest behaviour of the government and the ruling party, which are trying to cover the sky with the palm of their hand, and the offensive against the enemy.”
IFJ General Secretary, Anthony Bellanger, said: “Suing the media for defamation is a typical example of intimidation. President Yoon should be held accountable for what he reportedly said and not use journalists as an excuse to cover up for him.”
For further information contact IFJ Asia - Pacific on ifj
@ifj-asia.org
The IFJ represents more than 600,000 journalists in 140 countries
Twitter: @ifjasiapacific, on Facebook: IFJAsiaPacific and Instagram
10. Combined Forces Command prepares to say bye to Yongsan
Another inaccurate statement by the media.
Excerpt:
The joint South Korea-U.S. exercise at the end of August was led for the first time by a South Korean, CFC deputy commander Gen. Ahn Byung-seok, as part of a Full Operational Capability (FOC) assessment that precedes the transfer Opcon of the allies’ combined forces from Washington to Seoul.
OPCON of allied forces is not transferring from Washington to Seoul. Forces provided to the ROK/US CFC by the ROK and US governments will be under the OPCON of CFC which is "owned" equally by the ROK and US governments. CFC answers equally to both Presidents through the Military Committee (made up of representatives of the National Command and Military Authorities of both countries). There is no transfer of OPCON from the US to the ROK. It is time the media busts this myth.
Tuesday
October 4, 2022
dictionary + A - A
Combined Forces Command prepares to say bye to Yongsan
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2022/10/04/national/defense/Korea-Combined-Forces-Command-CFC/20221004183251855.html
A photo of Camp Humphreys in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi, south of Seoul, where the Combined Forces Command headquarters will relocate by early next month. [YONHAP]
The headquarters of the South Korea-U.S. Combined Forces Command (CFC) will relocate to Camp Humphreys in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi, this month, ending a four-decade presence in Seoul's Yongsan District.
The South Korean Defense Ministry said Tuesday that the relocation of the CFC’s headquarters is expected to wrap up by the end of the month.
“Through the relocation, the CFC plans to establish an even stronger combined defense system based on a strengthened alliance spirit and operational efficiency in Pyeongtaek, the new cradle of the alliance,” the ministry said in a statement.
Construction of the new CFC headquarters building in Pyeongtaek finished last month at a cost of 32.2 billion won ($22.42 million).
Approximately 700 South Korean and U.S. personnel currently serving at the CFC’s Yongsan headquarters will begin moving to Camp Humphreys starting early this month, while the CFC plans to hold a ceremony in November marking the end of the command’s era in Yongsan.
The Defense Ministry called the CFC “the symbol of the South Korea-U.S. alliance” and noted its success in defending South Korea from North Korean attacks and provocations.
The CFC was launched in 1978 and is tasked with leading the allies’ joint efforts to counter potential North Korean provocations and aggression.
Although the CFC is currently led by a four-star U.S. general, a South Korean general is expected to lead it after the conditional transfer of wartime operational control (Opcon) from Washington to Seoul takes place, with a U.S. general taking a supporting role.
South Korea has not held wartime Opcon since the 1950-53 Korean War, when it handed operational control over its troops to the U.S.-led United Nations Command. Opcon was subsequently transferred to the CFC when it launched.
The country regained peacetime Opcon in 1994, but the United States retains wartime operational control.
The joint South Korea-U.S. exercise at the end of August was led for the first time by a South Korean, CFC deputy commander Gen. Ahn Byung-seok, as part of a Full Operational Capability (FOC) assessment that precedes the transfer Opcon of the allies’ combined forces from Washington to Seoul.
The FOC assessment is the second phase of a three-part verification process to determine if South Korea is ready to lead the allies’ combined forces in wartime.
BY MICHAEL LEE [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]
11. South Korean and Japanese defense stocks are rallying after North Korea fired a missile over Japan
Follow the money.
South Korean and Japanese defense stocks are rallying after North Korea fired a missile over Japan
KEY POINTS
- In South Korea, shares of Hanwha Aerospace, an aircraft engine manufacturer, rose more than 3% in the morning session, while Korea Aerospace, which also develops fighter jets, jumped more than 4%.
- Japan's Mitsubishi Heavy Industries gained more than 3% and Hosoya Pyro-Engineering rose more than 5% in Asia's early session.
- The latest move from North Korea is a signal it may test a nuclear bomb in the next month or two, according to Rodger Baker, executive director at the Stratfor Center for Applied Geopolitics at Rane, a risk management firm.
CNBC · by Jihye Lee · October 4, 2022
Shares of South Korean and Japanese defense companies rose sharply in Asia's session after authorities confirmed North Korea launched a ballistic missile that flew over Japanese territory for the first time in five years.
U.S. authorities slammed the latest move from Pyongyang as "reckless and dangerous," saying it poses an "unacceptable threat to the Japanese public." They urged the country to refrain from taking more "unlawful and destabilizing acts."
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida called the North's latest actions "barbaric." And South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol said his office is considering stronger sanctions on Pyongyang in light of such continued provocations.
In South Korea, shares of Hanwha Aerospace, an aircraft engine manufacturer, rose more than 3% in the morning session, while Korea Aerospace, which also develops fighter jets, jumped more than 4%.
Victek, also a company that specializes in producing military equipment, rallied more than 11%, reaching highest levels in more than a month.
In Japan, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, which also makes military machinery through its aircraft, defense and space department, gained more than 3% in Asia's session. Hosoya Pyro-Engineering, which makes flare bombs and smoke candles for the Japanese self-defense forces, also rose more than 5% in Asia's early session.
Nuclear threat?
The latest move from North Korea is a signal it may test a nuclear bomb in the next month or two, according to Rodger Baker, executive director at the Stratfor Center for Applied Geopolitics at Rane, a risk management firm.
"The North Koreans have cleaned out their tunnels for their nuclear tests," he said on CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia," adding that a test is likely to take place between China's party congress in mid-October and the U.S. midterm elections in November.
"It does make sense that if they're going to be testing sometime in the next month, month and a half, the logic would be to do it between those two events," he said.
"It's probably for political considerations that North Koreans would be very cautious about testing in the middle of the Chinese Party Congress, certainly that may not go over well for the Chinese leadership and their relationship with North Korea."
CNBC · by Jihye Lee · October 4, 2022
12. Get over the hot-mic moment
Yes, please do.
Tuesday
October 4, 2022
dictionary + A - A
Get over the hot-mic moment
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2022/10/04/opinion/columns/Yoon-Sukyeol-hotmic-DP/20221004194732677.html
Yeh Young-june
The author is an editorial writer for the JoongAng Ilbo.
It’s nothing new that North Korea fires missiles one after another. But the latest provocation is clearly different from the past pattern. In the past, the North used belligerent rhetoric and staged armed provocations before the Korea-U.S. joint military exercises yet remained quiet once the drill started. Behind the pattern was the North’s fear that U.S. strategic assets deployed on the Korean Peninsula for the exercise may target the North for a strike. During the 2018 inter-Korean summit, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un told then South Korean President Moon Jae-in, “I will refrain from doing things that will wake you up early in the morning to summon a National Security Council meeting.” That was an empty promise. But the joint drill was a substantial fear for the recalcitrant regime in Pyongyang.
But this time, North Korea fired ballistic missiles while the Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group was conducting maritime drills with the South Korean navy. North Korea seems to think, “How dare you touch a nuclear-armed state?” The military authorities of the South and the U.S. probably had difficult time evaluating and responding to this unprecedented situation. It is not a stretch that some experts are worrying that the existing deterrence strategy is no longer effective.
Furthermore, North Korea is ready to conduct a submarine-launched ballistic missile test and its seventh nuclear test to show the strength of its tactical nuclear warheads. The North is at the final stage of securing a “game changer.”
Lawmakers from the Democratic Party stage a rally in the National Assembly to denounce the Yoon Suk-yeol administration for its diplomatic fumbles and political oppression. [JOONGANG PHOTO]
On the other hand, South Korea is facing an extremely serious crisis. At the Armed Forces’ Day ceremony on October 1, the military revealed a new missile to issue a warning to North Korea. But it is unclear whether the warning will work. Activation of the extended deterrence is key to defending against the North, but we have to calculate more meticulously if that will be enough. We must reconsider the response strategy fundamentally by mulling all possible options, including sharing nuclear weapons or developing nukes. As the task is very urgent and overwhelming, President Yoon Suk-yeol and his aides must work around the clock.
A crisis approaching from one direction can be overcome when we are ready. But this time, it is a multi-directional, complex crisis. We are probably already inside an unseen perfect storm. In the past, we were able to overcome economic crises in a short period of time thanks to the massive Chinese market, but now, China is one of the epicenters of the crisis.
In a nutshell, we cannot afford the luxury of debating over President Yoon’s hot-mic moment in New York. When I have a long interview, I use a voice recognition program to make a transcript of the interview. As the automatic transcription system has improved greatly, I don’t have to revise the transcript.
So I used the program to make a transcript of Yoon’s controversial remarks in New York and the program could not recognize it. The program normally recognizes most voice records, but the program gave up making the transcript because the record could not be recognized accurately. Sound experts used more sophisticated programs, but they also had similar outcomes.
So, even if you ask the investigative authorities to probe MBC for an allegation that it had intentionally manipulated the subtitle and damaged the alliance or call for a scientific analysis, a clear conclusion will unlikely be made. The algorithm may have studied political risks through various news reports and online comments and rejected to produce an outcome.
Yoon must escape from this wasteful battle. It doesn’t even take a grand decision. He just needs to tell the truth and admit to his mistake if there was any negligence — and declare, “Starting this moment, I will stop any unnecessary political battle sand concentrate all my efforts on state affairs.”
The DP also must stop attacking Yoon recklessly. The rival parties will continue their fight because they do not know what political cooperation means, but they should find a new topic to fight over. In this muddy battle, whoever loses first will be the winner.
13. North Korea fires missile over Japan in longest-ever test
Excerpt:
Daniel Kritenbrink, U.S. State Department's assistant secretary for East Asian and Pacific affairs, reiterated his country's assessment that a resumption of nuclear bomb testing by North Korea for the first time since 2017 was most likely only awaiting a political decision. He was quoted by Reuters during an online event hosted by the Institute for Corean-American Studies that such a "dangerous" act would represent "a grave escalation that would seriously threaten regional and international stability and security."
North Korea fires missile over Japan in longest-ever test
Japan's Kishida, South Korea's Yoon slam Pyongyang's fifth launch in 10 days
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/N-Korea-at-crossroads/North-Korea-fires-missile-over-Japan-in-longest-ever-test?utm_campaign=GL_asia_daily&utm_medium=email&utm_source=NA_newsletter&utm_content=article_link&del_type=1&pub_date=20221004123000&seq_num=2&si=1a7616f4-4be1-42a4-8e48-bcfa3a262b90
KENTARO IWAMOTO and KIM JAEWON, Nikkei staff writers
October 4, 2022 07:51 JSTUpdated on October 4, 2022 12:06 JST
TOKYO/SEOUL -- North Korea launched what is believed to be its longest missile test on Tuesday, firing a ballistic device over northern Japan into the Pacific Ocean.
The first launch over Japan in five years is part of a clear escalation by the isolated nation ahead of the Chinese Communist Party's congress later this month and U.S. midterm elections in November.
South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said the medium-range missile was fired at 7:23 a.m. from Mupyeong-ri in northern Chagang province and traveled about 4,500 kilometers with a maximum altitude of 970 km, the JCS said.
Japan's Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada said the missile passed over the northern Tohoku region and flew 4,600 km -- the longest horizontal distance for a projectile launched by the country.
Jeffrey Lewis, a professor with expertise in East Asia nonproliferation at the U.S.-based Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, tweeted: "Based on the range, apogee and flight time, the North Korea missile was a Hwasong-12 IRBM."
North Korea has launched at least 36 missiles this year alone, according to Japan's Defense Ministry -- a record for a calendar year that surpasses the 25 in 2019.
The Japanese government warned citizens to take cover as the North Korean missile appeared to have flown over its territory before falling into the Pacific Ocean. © Kyodo
Analysts warn that Pyongyang is preparing for an even more significant test as part of its long-term strategy to drive wedges between U.S. allies Japan and South Korea.
"Pyongyang is still in the middle of a provocation and testing cycle and is likely waiting until after China's mid-October Communist Party congress to conduct an even more significant test," said Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Woman's University in Seoul.
"The Kim [Jong Un] regime is developing weapons such as tactical nuclear warheads and submarine-launched ballistic missiles as part of a long-term strategy to outrun South Korea in an arms race and drive wedges among U.S. allies."
"We strongly condemn this outrage following the recent repeated launch of ballistic missiles," Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida told reporters in Tokyo. "We must evaluate and make decisions based on a thorough review and analysis of the situation."
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol said: "[North Korea's] reckless nuclear provocation will face determined reactions from our military as well as allies and the international community."
Daniel Kritenbrink, U.S. State Department's assistant secretary for East Asian and Pacific affairs, reiterated his country's assessment that a resumption of nuclear bomb testing by North Korea for the first time since 2017 was most likely only awaiting a political decision. He was quoted by Reuters during an online event hosted by the Institute for Corean-American Studies that such a "dangerous" act would represent "a grave escalation that would seriously threaten regional and international stability and security."
On Tuesday morning, Japan's national instant warning system, known as J-Alert, broadcast that a ballistic missile had been launched, urging residents to evacuate indoors or into basements.
"If you see anything suspicious, don't approach it and call the police or fire department immediately," read the J-Alert message. Northern prefectures of Hokkaido and Aomori were designated as target areas.
Operations of Japan's bullet trains were temporarily suspended in some areas.
14. U.S. calls North Korea launch 'dangerous'; pledges to defend allies
U.S. calls North Korea launch 'dangerous'; pledges to defend allies
Reuters · by David Brunnstrom
WASHINGTON, Oct 3 (Reuters) - The United States condemned North Korea's firing of a ballistic missile over Japan as "dangerous and reckless" and pledged to defend South Korea and Japan with all America's power, but said it remained open to dialogue with Pyongyang.
"This action is destabilizing and shows the DPRK’s blatant disregard for United Nations Security Council resolutions and international safety norms," White House National Security Council spokeswoman Adrienne Watson said in statement, referring to North Korea by the initials of its official name.
She said U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan spoke with his Japanese and South Korean counterparts to discuss "appropriate and robust joint and international responses."
Sullivan reinforced the "ironclad" U.S. commitments to the defense of Japan and South Korea and said Washington would continue efforts to limit North Korea's ability to advance its prohibited weapons programs.
The missile fired on Thursday was the first to fly over Japan in five years, prompting a warning for residents to take cover and a temporary suspension of train operations in northern areas of the country. read more
Daniel Kritenbrink, the State Department's assistant secretary for East Asian and Pacific affairs, said China needed to do more to fight sanctions evasion by North Korea in its coastal waters. He added that Beijing and Russia should work to shut down Pyongyang's procurement networks.
"The failure of the PRC and Russia to fully and completely fulfill their obligations ... has only, we fear, emboldened the DPRK in undermining the U.N. Security Council, the international rules-based order and global non-proliferation regime," he said.
Kritenbrink said that persuading North Korea to denuclearize ought to be an area of cooperation with China, but that there were some in Beijing who want to use the issue as leverage in the broader strategic rivalry with Washington.
He reiterated that Washington remained open to dialogue with North Korea without preconditions and called Pyongyang to "commit to serious and sustained diplomacy, and refrain from further destabilizing activities."
"Unfortunately... the only response we have seen thus far is an increase in the number of ballistic missile launches and other provocative actions," he said. "This is not a productive path forward, neither for North Korea or for any of us."
Kritenbrink reiterated a U.S. assessment that a resumption of nuclear testing by North Korea for the first time since 2017 was probably just awaiting political approval. He said such a "dangerous" act would represent "a grave escalation that would seriously threaten regional and international stability and security."
"It is in the international community's best interest to ensure the DPRK knows that such an action will be met by unanimous condemnation, that the only path towards long-term peace and stability is through negotiations," he said.
Kritenbrink said Washington would "respond resolutely" to the growing North Korean threat and "take all necessary measures, involving all elements of American national power" to defend treaty allies South Korea and Japan.
"I don't think anyone should doubt our result in terms of pursuing sanctions and other authority to impose a cost on these actions," he added.
Decades of U.S.-led sanctions have not stemmed North Korea's increasingly sophisticated missile and nuclear bomb programs, and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has shown no interest in returning a failed path of diplomacy he pursued with U.S. President Donald Trump.
Reporting by David Brunnstrom; Editing by Christian Schmollinger and Gerry Doyle
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Reuters · by David Brunnstrom
15. An overgrown border proves curtain-twitching North Korea is retreating into nuclear paranoia
An overgrown border proves curtain-twitching North Korea is retreating into nuclear paranoia
North Korea has test-fired 37 missile launches this year amid a deterioration of relations between Pyongyang, Seoul and Washington
By
Nicola Smith,
ASIA CORRESPONDENT
4 October 2022 • 11:19am
The Telegraph · by Nicola Smith,
On the demilitarised border between North and South Korea, the only sign of activity on the northern side after Pyongyang’s audacious missile test over Japan on Tuesday morning was the twitching of white curtains in the windows lining the austere Phanmun Pavilion.
The two-storey North Korean headquarters overlooks the low blue huts of the “Joint Security Area” (JSA) where North and South Korean soldiers traditionally stand face-to-face.
But officers with the UN Command, the multinational military force stationed at the borderzone, said North Korea’s military personnel had barely been spotted since the outbreak of Covid-19, barring a few appearances in bright orange hazmat suits.
Weeds now sprout through the pebbled ground on the North Korean side of the military demarcation line (MDL), marked by the long, narrow block where former US President Donald Trump made history in 2019 by becoming the first sitting American leader to step over from South to North.
That brief meeting was the last in a series of historic summits between Kim Jong Un, Mr Trump and then South Korean leader Moon Jae-in, that had raised hopes of the reclusive regime’s nuclear disarmament.
The Korean Demilitarised Zone
Now, alongside Pyongyang’s escalating missile launches this year, the messy undergrowth and unwashed windows of the blue huts that have long served as negotiating rooms, are another sign of unfulfilled expectations for peace. The imposing wooden table inside the T2 conference hut lies beautifully polished but unused.
North Korea has test-fired an unprecedented 37 missile launches this year amid a deterioration of relations between Pyongyang, Seoul and Washington, including a suspected hypersonic weapon and attempted intercontinental ballistic missile that would be capable of hitting mainland America.
Five tests have been conducted over the past week, culminating in Tuesday’s launch of an intermediate-range missile over Japan - the first such flight since 2017 and, at 4,600 km, the longest distance ever travelled by a North Korean missile.
A Pedestrian watches a screen displaying news reporting of North Korea's launch of a ballistic missile in Tokyo, Japan Credit: KIMIMASA MAYAMA/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
Despite the raised tensions, Lt Colonel Griff Hofman, an officer with the UN Command said the force’s purpose was to keep the situation on the border calm.
“Our whole purpose here is to deescalate and to keep things from escalating,” he told the Telegraph while standing next to the MDL.
“If we don’t see anything over there - directly across - that makes us nervous, our increasing posture or tightening up here could be seen as escalatory and cause them to respond to it.”
But while there is no indication of conflict along the demilitarised zone separating North and South, nor is there any current prospect of progress towards peace.
Just four years ago, a symbolic walk and private conversation between President Moon and Kim Jong Un along a blue footbridge at the JSA buoyed spirits on the Korean Peninsula.
Now it remains under repair, its wooden slats broken and rotting.
In the distance, a North Korean flag could be seen fluttering peacefully on a giant flagpole. But it is framed by the Kaesong Heights, a mountain range containing artillery directed at Seoul.
There has been a sharp uptick in North Korean missile launches this year as frustrations mount in Pyongyang over punishing international sanctions that have endured since the collapse of peace talks in 2019 and Kim Jong Un doubles down on his ambitions to establish his pariah country as a nuclear state.
Tensions have risen in recent months between North and South Korea, with Pyongyang stepping up its threatening rhetoric since the election of President Yoon Suk-yeol, who promised during his campaign to take a harder line against the North, even while keeping the door open to talks.
Yoon Suk-yeol, the South Korean president, vowed on October 4, that there would be a 'stern response' to North Korea's latest test of an intermediate range ballistic missile, which flew over Japan Credit: AFP
At the same time, relations appear to be warming between North Korea, Russia and China, enabling Kim’s increasing provocation.
Last month, his rubberstamp parliament passed a new law to make the country’s nuclear status “irreversible,” overtly ruling out future talks on disarmament.
The new legislation allows the regime to “automatically and immediately” use preventive nuclear strikes to protect leader Kim Jong-un if it feels he or the country is facing any kind of foreign threat.
North Korea’s toughening stance is driven in part by its anger towards the resumption of major joint military drills between the US and South Korea, but analysts say Kim’s latest moves also indicate his paranoia over outside attempts at regime change.
More turbulence may be on the horizon.
Last week, South Korea’s politicians, briefed by national intelligence, warned Pyongyang’s 7th nuclear test could be conducted ahead of the US November mid-term elections.
The 4km buffer zone between North and South Korea was originally created for 90 days, to allow the two sides time to negotiate a permanent Peace Treaty after the 1950-53 Korean War.
That Peace Treaty was not forthcoming. Now, more than 70 years later, there is little hope of a resolution in sight.
The Telegraph · by Nicola Smith,
16. N. Korea unresponsive to regular contact via inter-Korean liaison line: ministry
Not surprising.
N. Korea unresponsive to regular contact via inter-Korean liaison line: ministry | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · October 4, 2022
SEOUL, Oct. 4 (Yonhap) -- North Korea was not responding to daily contact via an inter-Korean liaison line Tuesday, South Korea's unification ministry said hours after Pyongyang fired an intermediate range ballistic missile into the Pacific.
"The North had not answered an opening call through an inter-Korean liaison communication line as of 9 a.m., while the military hotline was in normal operation," a ministry official said, adding the government is trying to find out the reason amid the possibility of a technical problem.
The two Koreas hold phone calls twice a day via their joint liaison office channel.
sooyeon@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · October 4, 2022
17. Global Upheaval As Opportunity: North Korea Rebuilding Ties With Russia And China – Analysis
Excerpt:
The COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine crisis have given another lease of life to North Korea’s relationship with Russia and China. Moscow and Beijing have, in the changing realities of global politics, found themselves standing contrary to US-led networks, and both have been looking for support. Pyongyang has shown clear intent to provide such support. In material terms, North Korean support won’t make much difference, and any increase in exchanges with North Korea might be seen as violation of the various UN resolutions that put sanctions the country. However, this will definitely be a troubling development for the West as it means a revival of the trilateral quasi-alliance between North Korea, China, and Russia, which will be good for North Korea.
Global Upheaval As Opportunity: North Korea Rebuilding Ties With Russia And China – Analysis
eurasiareview.com · by IPCS · October 4, 2022
By Dr. Sandip Kumar Mishra*
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The Ukraine crisis, US-China contestation, and COVID-19 pandemic have been challenging for most countries across the globe as it has led to energy and other supply-related issues, and its prolongation is seen as problematic by one and all. However, contrary to others, North Korea finds the crisis a golden opportunity to be better connected with Russia and China and ease its isolation.
In June 2022, there was an exchange of letters between Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un in which they expressed their desire to “expand comprehensive and constructive bilateral relations.” In fact, North Korea got an opportunity to reach out to Russia during the Ukraine crisis that began in February 2022. North Korea has openly blamed the “hegemonic policy” and “high-handedness” of the US and European powers for the crisis. It is an attempt to support an increasingly isolated Russia, and in return expect similar support from it in any crisis on the Korean peninsula.
And it seems Russia is already responding. For example, in an interview, the Russian ambassador to North Korea supported the North Korean claim that balloons infected with COVID-19 sent to North Korea from South Korea caused infections. Russia also denounced the joint US-South Korea military exercise in August 2022. Economic contacts between North Korea and Russia that were frozen during the pandemic period are going to be restarted. North Korean Ambassador to Russia, Sin Hong-chol, said that trade via rail route between the two countries would resume in September.
Similarly North Korea has also been using the changing situations in regional and global politics as opportunities to reach out to China. This proximity could be seen on multiple occasions, such as in May 2022 when China and Russia both vetoed a US-led push for new sanctions on North Korea at the UNSC. North Korea has used the friction between the US and China over the visit of the Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan on 3 August 2022. It sent a “letter of solidarity” to China. In it, North Korea called the visit an “imprudent interference” in China’s internal affairs. On 21 September 2022, it was reported that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has written a letter to China thanking it for its “constant support and encouragement” against the “heinous isolation” perpetrated by the West through various sanctions . Kim Jong-un’s letter was in response to a letter by Xi Jinping, in which he congratulated the country on its foundation day on 15 September 2022.
Freight train services between China and North Korea, which were suspended since 29 April due to the pandemic, have also reportedly been restored since 26 September. This is considered important as North Korea has been facing chronic food and consumer goods shortages in the recent months. North Korea-China trade has also been gradually picking up, and in August 2022, reached US$ 90.3 million. Even though it is far from the pre-pandemic level, it’s definitely showing a bounce back.
The COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine crisis have given another lease of life to North Korea’s relationship with Russia and China. Moscow and Beijing have, in the changing realities of global politics, found themselves standing contrary to US-led networks, and both have been looking for support. Pyongyang has shown clear intent to provide such support. In material terms, North Korean support won’t make much difference, and any increase in exchanges with North Korea might be seen as violation of the various UN resolutions that put sanctions the country. However, this will definitely be a troubling development for the West as it means a revival of the trilateral quasi-alliance between North Korea, China, and Russia, which will be good for North Korea.
*Dr Sandip Kumar Mishra is Associate Professor, Centre for East Asian studies, SIS, JNU, & Distinguished Fellow, IPCS.
eurasiareview.com · by IPCS · October 4, 2022
18. Kishida Pledges 'Close Communication' with Seoul
Some good news. This is from the Korean press. I hope it is not a wishful interpretation.
Excerpt:
The tone was notably more conciliatory than before President Yoon Suk-yeol took office here in May.
Kishida Pledges 'Close Communication' with Seoul
english.chosun.com
October 04, 2022 10:17
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on Monday said South Korea is an "important neighbor" and Japan should cooperate with it when dealing with global issues.
Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida delivers a policy speech at a Diet session in Tokyo on Monday. /AP-Yonhap
Speaking in an extraordinary session of the Diet, Kishida also pledged to maintain "close communication" with the South Korean government, and stressed the "need to restore a wholesome relationship between the two countries and further develop it based on friendly and cooperative relations that have been built since the establishment of diplomatic ties."
The tone was notably more conciliatory than before President Yoon Suk-yeol took office here in May.
Kishida also expressed hopes of meeting North Korean leader Kim Jong-un "without any strings attached" to solve the issue of Japanese citizens abducted by North Korea in the 1970s and 80s, which he called the "most important issue."
He said he wants to move on from the unfortunate past and normalize relations with North Korea by settling the issues of abduction, nuclear weapons and missiles based on the 2002 Pyongyang Declaration by the two countries.
But Kishida also reiterated the importance of containing China and beefing up the Japanese military. "Attempts to forcibly change the status quo can't be tolerated in any part of the world" lest East Asia become another Ukraine, he said.
"The security environment is deteriorating rapidly in areas around Japan, including the East and South China seas," he warned. "Top priority should be given to enhancing deterrent capabilities and the ability to resolutely defend Japan's territory, waters and airspace."
Yoon Meets Biden, Kishida for Overdue 3-Way Summit
Korea to Form Security Partnership with NATO
Yoon Leaves for NATO Summit in Madrid
Yoon to Hold Trilateral Summit with Biden, Kishida in Madrid
Pacific Countries to Meet on Sidelines of NATO Summit
Yoon to Attend NATO Summit in Late June
- Copyright © Chosunilbo & Chosun.com
english.chosun.com
19. N Korea’s latest missile salvo exposes US impotence
Impotence? So we need some viagra based strategy?
Yes one of the best outcomes from these missile launches would be a trilateral commitment to integrated missile defense.
N Korea’s latest missile salvo exposes US impotence
Kim Jong Un climbs escalation ladder with blast over Japan, underscoring urgent need for a US-Japan-South Korea joint missile defense system
asiatimes.com · by Andrew Salmon · October 4, 2022
SEOUL – “What is to be done?” is the plaintive cry likely being sounded in the corridors of power in Seoul, Tokyo and Washington following Pyongyang’s latest ballistic missile test on October 4.
Given that North Korea’s missile ascended high over Japan – the first such trajectory since 2017 – the question is particularly stark. And with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un clearly climbing the rungs of a calculated escalation ladder, there are no easy answers.
North Korea’s defiance of UN Security Council resolutions that ostensibly bar it from possessing ballistic missile technologies has again glaringly exposed the impotence of the international community – most especially the US, and its key East Asian allies, Japan and South Korea – to rein in its weapons programs.
This morning’s test, which hefted an intermediate-range ballistic missile outside the earth’s atmosphere for a range of 4,600 kilometers, marked the first time since 2017 that a North Korean missile’s flight path carried it over Japan.
But it is just the latest in a series of tests of tactical missiles, air defense missiles, cruise missiles, and various ranges of ballistic missiles that have made 2022 the busiest year ever for North Korea’s rocket men.
Yet if Seoul, Tokyo and Washington are being stress-tested, Beijing – on the eve of a critical Communist Party Congress – may also be in the firing line for blowback: Should Kim continue to raise the level of his provocations, the US and its Northeast Asian allies might be compelled to begin cooperation on a trilateral missile defense system.
Even if designed to defend against North Korea, any such system would have major consequences for China’s own deterrent. Given China’s sensitivity toward an increased US footprint in the region, including through the deployment of THAAD, the possibility of a US-Japan-South Korea defense system might just compel Beijing to act towards its troublesome client.
No easy solutions
As per customary practice, both Japan and South Korea convened their national security bodies and issued angry rhetoric after today’s launch.
“North Korea’s series of actions, including its repeated ballistic missile launches, threatens the peace and security of Japan, the region, and the international community, and poses a serious challenge to the entire international community, including Japan,” Japan’s top government spokesperson, Hirokazu Matsuno, told a news conference. For his part South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol warned of a “resolute” response. “
Though a series of anti-submarine drills involving the US aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan and South Korean and Japanese forces recently ended, some kind of retaliatory drills is possible. But beyond that, the allies’ options are limited.
There is little chance of any unified multilateral response in the UN Security Council. In May, China and Russia vetoed a US-proposed intensification of sanctions on North Korea – a move that certain analysts reckon has “knee-capped” the UNSC.
North Korean ballistic missiles are again streaking across global front pages. A screen grab taken from a KCNA broadcast on October 10, 2020, shows what appears to be new North Korean ICBM’s during a military parade marking the 75th anniversary of the Workers’ Party of Korea, on Kim Il Sung square in Pyongyang. Photo: AFP / KCNA
This is not, of course, to suggest that prior UNSC sanctions halted North Korea’s missile or nuclear programs. In addition to its endless schedule of missile tests, North Korea has conducted six nuclear tests since 2006 – and there are concerns of another soon to come.
It is important to clearly report that the missile “flew over Japan,” which may be misleading. According to the Japanese government, today’s test flew 1,000 kilometers above the earth’s surface.
By comparison, Mount Everest is less than 9 kilometers high, so no Japanese hats were blown off, nor were any rooftops skimmed. Indeed, the missile, on most of its track beyond the earth’s atmosphere, was invisible to the naked eye.
Even so, this did not stop some people from reportedly taking cover.
There are fears in Japan that parts of the device – a booster stage, perhaps – could plummet to earth and land upon unlucky citizens below. That fear was the ostensible reason given for Japan abandoning a US-made Aegis Ashore missile defense system in June 2020.
Although Japan maintains Aegis missiles on destroyers, its counter-missile strategy has been unclear since. Some are urging Tokyo to adopt a counterstrike – or even pre-emptive strike – doctrine.
Tokyo has not yet responded to North Korean missile tests over its geography with countermeasures.
On the one hand, it is far from clear that Japan possesses the capability to “shoot down” ballistic missiles and a failed attempt to do so would send a worrying signal of military impotence. Another factor is that the country is a signatory to international treaties that obviate the military use of space.
Kim on an escalation ladder
For Pyongyang, diplomatic dalliances with Washington and Seoul have essentially been frozen since the failure of a 2019 North Korea-US summit in Hanoi, Vietnam.
Amid this lack of engagement, arms tests represent a largely risk-free political option for the regime to display national muscle and boost the pride of its citizenry while raising a political finger to its adversaries in the wider world.
But at a time when a real kinetic missile war – the world’s largest – is raging in Ukraine, missile tests offer “diminishing returns” in terms of “domestic political value and international signaling” said Leif Eric Easley, who teaches international relations at Ewha Woman’s University in Seoul.
Even so, the hefting of a weapon over Japan was a “significant escalation over its recent provocations,” Easley said in an email to reporters.
Go Myong-hyun, a North Korea watcher at Seoul’s Asan Institute, agrees. “This indicates that North Korea is engaged in its typical provocation strategy of ramping up tensions and gradually raising the level with more serious actions,” he told Asia Times.
There are sound military reasons for North Korea’s ongoing testing.
Kim Jong-un looks at a rocket warhead tip after a simulated test of atmospheric re-entry of a ballistic missile, at an unidentified location in this undated photo released March 15, 2016. Photo: KCNA
The country is engaged in a regional arms race but other entrants in that marathon – China, Japan and South Korea – are all far more prosperous and thus able to afford advanced kit such as stealth fighters and aircraft carriers. In the regional space, weapons of mass destruction grant North Korea continued international relevance.
“The Kim regime is developing weapons such as tactical nuclear warheads and submarine-launched ballistic missiles as part of a long-term strategy to outrun South Korea in an arms race and drive wedges among US allies,” Easley wrote.
As it is competing with weapons of its own manufacture, rather than those acquired off-the-shelf from allies, Pyongyang needs to test technologies, personnel and systems to ensure they are workable. And if the past is prologue, there will be bigger fireworks to come.
“Last time they launched a missile over Japan, they followed up with a nuclear test a week later,” Go said. “There have been so many reports of North Korea preparing for a seventh nuke test, if you used these two pieces of the puzzle, it is likely that they will follow up with a nuclear test, possibly after China’s 20th Party Congress.”
Speculation among Pyongyangologists is that North Korea may be waiting for a reasonable interval after its key benefactor, China, completes its high-profile congress – due to open on October 16 – before going critical.
What may be different this time is that the test could be of a battlefield, tactical-sized device. That would be a game-changer for South Korean and US forces on the peninsula.
North Korea’s six nuclear tests so far have been of strategic-yield devices, with the North also testing intercontinental ballistic missiles to deliver them to the US mainland.
Those assets are widely seen as deterrents to any form of US attack on North Korea. Tactical nuclear weapons are very different assets. Fired from conventional artillery and tactical rocket systems, they are designed for actual battlefield use.
Tactical nukes can wipe out dense troop concentrations; make ports, harbors and other communications nodes unusable; and by radioactive “grid-square removal” prevent enemy forces from maneuvering in strategic chunks of terrain.
Deterrent options
From a US perspective, what can be done? Due to the nature of the North Korean state, leverage is lacking but the long-term nature of the regional game remains.
“There is not much we can do if a state decides to pursue strategic weapons development at the expense of their own people. We are not talking about a democratic state here, North Korea is definitely an outlier,” said Go. “When all reasonable ways to pressure North Korea are not working, we still have deterrence.”
At the same time, North Korea’s provocations might feasibly compel China – a critical supplier of food, fuel and medication to Pyongyang – to act, one analyst opined.
The emplacement of a US THAAD missile battery earlier drove Beijing to economic retaliation against Seoul. Photo: AFP / Missile Defense Agency
“Just like Putin’s invasion of Ukraine did more to strengthen NATO cohesion and unity than anything else in decades, there could be unanticipated blowback for China from North Korea’s actions,” Daniel Pinkston, international relations expert at Troy University told Asia Times. “That is trilateral cooperation by Japan, South Korea and the US on missile defense.”
There is little sign of that now, but Beijing was colossally infuriated by the deployment of a single US THAAD missile defense battery on South Korean soil in 2017.
In that light, any indication that the creation of a fully systemized missile defense line so close to its eastern frontiers was under serious consideration could move Beijing to exercise more leverage over Pyongyang.
Follow this writer on Twitter @ASalmonSeoul
asiatimes.com · by Andrew Salmon · October 4, 2022
De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Senior Advisor, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Phone: 202-573-8647
email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
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