CNS News & Views: February 2023

Middlebury Institute of International Studies

February 2023

VCDNP and IAEA Conclude Practical Arrangements

On January 31, 2023, the VCDNP and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) concluded Practical Arrangements, codifying their cooperative relationship of more than 10 years. The Practical Arrangements will strengthen cooperation in international safeguards, nuclear security, and peaceful applications of nuclear science and technology. VCDNP Executive Director Elena Sokova signed the Practical Arrangements at a ceremony at the IAEA that was attended by Deputy Director General and Head of the Department of Nuclear Sciences and Applications, Najat Mokhtar, Deputy Director General and Head of the Department of Safeguards, Massimo Aparo, and several other members of senior management.

Since the VCDNP opened its doors in 2011, it has worked extensively with many departments within the IAEA. The VCDNP and the IAEA regularly collaborate on capacity-building programs and have developed specialized courses on international safeguards and nuclear security for diplomats and practitioners. The Practical Arrangements are a recognition of the longstanding relationship between the VCDNP and the IAEA and will facilitate enhanced collaboration in the future.

Machiavelli in the Ivory Tower Episode 6

In this episode of Machiavelli in the Ivory Tower, hosts Sarah Bidgood and Hanna Notte spoke with Nicholas Miller, associate professor in the Department of Government at Dartmouth College. Their conversation focused on the proliferation implications of Russia’s war against Ukraine one year on.

Professor Miller discussed insights derived from his work relating to the factors that drive or inhibit proliferation, the degree to which some factors appear to matter more than others, and the relationship between the arms control and nonproliferation regimes. Additional topics addressed included the concept of nuclear learning, lessons global policymakers might draw from the current crisis, what can be gained from interactions between the scholarly and policy communities, and techniques and approaches to make these interactions more productive.

Watch the episode

Hinge Points: An Inside Look at North Korea’s Nuclear Program

On February 20, 2023, CNS Distinguished Professor of Practice Dr. Sigfried Hecker gave a talk about his newly released book, Hinge Points: An Inside Look at North Korea's Nuclear Program (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2023). The event was formatted in a question-and-answer style that deeply engaged experts, professors, and students who were in attendance both in-person and virtually.

Major themes explored during the discussion included North Korea's relationship with China, Russia, and the USSR; the transition in how North Korea communicates its technical advances to outside audiences; North Korea's nuclear exports; Dr. Hecker's approach to writing a technical book for a broad audience; insights readers gain from Dr. Hecker's on-the-ground knowledge; and the notion of “pattern breaks.” Dr. Hecker linked the technical and diplomatic worlds in North Korea through extraordinarily detailed anecdotes from his seven trips to North Korea between 2004 and 2010. Sarah Bidgood, Director of the Eurasia Nonproliferation Program at CNS, moderated the discussion.

Watch the book talk

Challenges and Prospects for US-Russian Nuclear Arms Control

Over the last few weeks, Senior Research Associate at the VCDNP Dr. Hanna Notte has spoken on the current state of US-Russian relations and published critical pieces on how these relations can still get worse, and what it would mean for Germany.

During a special virtual briefing hosted by the Arms Control Association in Washington, DC, Dr. Notte reviewed Russia’s approach to nuclear arms control against the backdrop of war in Ukraine and argued that Russia has ceased to compartmentalize arms control due to the confrontation over Ukraine. Dr. Notte expands on the slow death of compartmentalization in an article for War on the Rocks and offers a range of approaches the West should be prepared to take if Moscow confines cooperation to issues that benefit its war aims. Lastly, Dr. Notte published an op-ed in the German Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper, arguing that a modicum of Russian-US nuclear arms control remains in Germany’s interest, and will require Germany to take an intellectual examination of the strategic consequences of various rearmament scenarios, military adjustments, and political consultations with allies.

Radiological Security in Contested Territories

Radioactive materials, such as cesium-137 and cobalt-60, are located in more than 100 countries and in every region of the world. Used widely for medical, scientific, and industrial purposes, these materials can also be used maliciously as key ingredients in radiological dispersal devices (RDDs), the most notorious type of which is known as a “dirty bomb” which disperses radiological material using explosives. Radioactive material located in these contested or poorly governed territories poses a serious risk for regional and global security, as it could be trafficked illegally and used in an RDD or for other malicious purposes anywhere in the world.

CNS experts Margarita Kalinina-Pohl, Artem Lazarev, Miles Pomper, George Moore, and Edward Kendall, authored a report on one of the few success stories involving the removal or elimination of dangerous radioactive sources from a contested territory. The report describes and assesses the lessons learned from the Republic of Moldova’s removal of approximately 2,700 disused radioactive sources and materials from the breakaway region of Transdniestria. While recognizing that each country and conflict is unique, the hope is that this case study can serve as a successful model of cooperation and confidence building for reducing radiological risks in contested territories around the world.