THIS WEEK IN WASHINGTON
May 20, 2022
Welcome to the Georgia edition of This Week in Washington. Thank you for your interest in politics and policy from the Peach State to the Potomac.
 
Patrick Robertson reflects this week on a couple of headlines - “Vice President Harris approaching records for tie-breaking votes” and “The longest 50-50 Senate grinds on.” Ramona Lessen reviewed Tuesday’s Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee hearing that examined the U.S.-Canada Energy and Minerals Partnership.
 
As usual, Jesse Weathington lays out the latest in Georgia with his Gold Dome Report. Don’t miss the Infographs for an in-depth look at current hot topics.
 
In case you missed it, we have also included this week’s Total Spectrum Spotlight. Congressman Erik Paulsen interviewed Kevin Hassett, former Senior Advisor and Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.
 
We’ll be back in two weeks with the next issue of This Week in Washington.
 
As always… stay safe, healthy, AND sane.

Todd Smith
Chairman, Georgia Group

Jesse Weathington
Director, Georgia Group
Washington Whispers
By Patrick Robertson, Total Spectrum Strategic Consultant
 
I came across two headlines this week that got me thinking about the length of time Senate Leaders Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Mitch McConnell (R-KY) have had to navigate an evenly split Senate. These headlines blared something along these lines, “Vice President Harris approaching records for tie-breaking votes” and “The longest 50-50 Senate grinds on.”
 
Let’s look at the Senate, so often maligned for doing nothing, and see where it really stands.
 
First, the facts about Vice President Kamala Harris and her tie-breaking votes. She has cast 23 votes to break a tie, third all-time behind Vice President Calhoun (31) and Vice President John Adams (29). The difference is that that those historical tie breakers were almost exclusively cast on legislation. Twenty of Vice President Harris’s 23 votes have been on nominees to fill positions in the Executive Branch.
 
The Senate has changed its rules over the last two Administrations so that nominations are no longer subject to the 60-vote filibuster. As a result, nominations often are a party line vote – which means a tie. We can expect more tie-breaking votes until the midterm elections potentially change the balance of power in the Senate.
 
The other three votes Vice President Harris cast in this Senate were on Congress’s work to pass a budget in 2021 to set up and then execute the reconciliation rules around the American Rescue Plan. She also provided the 51st vote for final passage of the American Rescue Plan.
 
The longest 50-50 Senate split prior to this Congress was for five months at the beginning of this century. We are now in month 17 of an even split in the 117th Congress. Unless a Senator changes parties – which happened in 2000 – or vacates her/his seat, it looks like we will go through the entire 117th Congress with an even split.
 
But it is important to point out just how fragile the Senate is. The average age of current Senators is 62. Two of the younger Senators – Ben Ray Lujan (D-NM) and Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) – each suffered strokes this year. The Senate has had to put countless votes on hold this year due to positive COVID tests and other illnesses. In the history of the Senate, 301 Senators have died while in office; eight of these since 2000.
 
Many people blame Senatorial inaction on the 50-50 split. However, as long as the Senate has its 60-vote filibuster threshold in place on proposed legislation, there is not much difference between a 50-50 Senate and one that is 55-45. 
 
There’s still work that must get done this year. Congress needs to find a way to fund the government, pass the annual defense bill, deal with some expiring tax provisions, pass a conference agreement on the China competition bill, and a few other odds and ends. The question that often comes up is whether this Congress will be able to do more than this or if it will stumble trying to get the basics done.
 
Recent history tells us that even a closely divided Senate will struggle to do anything other than the basics. In the meantime, the 117th Congress still has a long time before next January. History tells us this 50-50 Senate will come to an end and the next Senate will give us more clarity.
Partner and
Georgia Group Chairman

Partner and
Georgia Group Director

Partner

Partner
Kevin Hassett
Total Spectrum Spotlight features an exclusive interview with Kevin Hassett, former Senior Adviser and Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers in the Trump Administration. Kevin sat down with Congressman Erik Paulsen and shared his views on a wide array of topics, including inflation, interest rates, the depth of the recession, and how small businesses are faring in these tough economic times.  
INFOGRAPHS
Click image to download
What you need to know about Tech Policy and the Midterms
U.S. marks 1 million Covid-19 deaths
More Democrats head
for the exits ahead of
midterm elections
What you need to know about Biofuels
What you need to know about Agricultural Policy and the Midterms
Gold Dome Report
by Jesse Weathington, Partner and Georgia Group Director

Today marks the conclusion of early voting in the 2022 Primary election, which record numbers of Georgians have done. Advanced voting’s growing popularity is a consistent trend reinforced each cycle. In This Week we take the last opportunity to make incorrect election predictions, knowing full well that votes yet uncounted or uncast can create untold surprises. If the recent past is any guide, anything is possible. But this is what we think is likely in the top three races…
 
GOVERNOR
Governor Brian Kemp should secure victory over former Senator David Perdue, whose campaign seems to have run out of gas. Kemp has consistently led in recent polling and is gunning to foreclose a primary run-off. As the AJC has reported, the lack of a top-ticket democratic contest and our open primaries have led many left-leaning voters to cross-over and vote against those GOP candidates supported by the man in Mar-a-Lago. Barring a major upset, the long-awaited rematch between Kemp and former Rep. Stacey Abrams will now begin in earnest. Both sides, each with massive war-chests, have already started to look beyond the primary as Kemp has built his lead over the Republican field. Should Kemp handily best the Trump-backed Perdue, as he seems poised to do, it will be the most significant sign yet that the former President may not be the undisputed kingmaker in the Republican Party.
 
U.S. SENATOR WARNOCK
Several famous Munson-isms spring to mind when describing Herschel Walker’s dominance of the GOP field to determine who will face Democratic U.S. Senator Rev. Raphael Warnock in November. Sport and politics are so intertwined here and share an argot that football in particular lends itself towards. He ran over them with a hobnailed boot? My god, a (fresh)man who has never run for office before? Anyone who is surprised by Walker’s durable lead simply has not spent much time in these parts. There are very few people who are household names in any state, and Walker is. It takes millions to buy that kind of name recognition, and none of his opponents have been able to do so. His risk-averse campaign strategy and focus on the general election have paid off. The question in this race is whether any of his competitors will break 10%. On the other side of the aisle awaits Sen. Warnock, who has amassed an astonishing fundraising advantage and can count on additional national Democratic resources to attempt to hold onto the seat, which is critical to maintaining a majority.
 
LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR
Geoff Duncan’s decision to retire drew thirteen candidates vying for the State Senate gavel into competitive contests on both sides of the partisan divide. Both races could result in run-offs (to be held June 21) due to the sheer number of candidates.
 
The four-way Republican contest is in truth a horse-race between two state senators, Butch Miller and Burt Jones. Jones has not been able to run away with it but is widely leading in a recent poll and is banking on his endorsement by former President Donald Trump in a contest where no candidate is well known statewide. Recall that incumbent Geoff Duncan’s victory in 2018 was narrow and involved a late surge and an infusion of last-minute cash targeting his opponent, David Shafer. The last-ditch attack ads run in this contest have been “gloves off”. Jones is likely to outpace his rivals, but not by a mile. The real question is whether Miller, activist Jeanne Seaver, and political newcomer Mack McGregor can deprive Jones of an outright majority.
 
Democrats have a more crowded field, including three democratic state representatives, a former city councilor who briefly served in Congress, as well as a handful of candidates who have previously made unsuccessful runs for office. Reps. Erick Allen, Renitta Shannon, and Derrick Jackson all vacated their state house seats to run for the Capitol’s No. 2 job. Charlie Bailey, a former prosecutor, leads the money race after moving into this lane to make way for State Sen. Jen Jordan to run for Attorney General. This nine-way race is a toss-up and will likely be decided later this spring.
Hearing Report
By Ramona Lessen, Executive Director, Total Spectrum
 
Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee Hearing to Examine The U.S.-Canada Energy And Minerals Partnership
Tuesday, May 17, 2022; 10:00 a.m.
 
To view a livestream of the hearing please click here.
 
Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV), Chairman
 
Senator John Barrasso (R-WY), Ranking Member
 
Witnesses:
The Honorable Jason Kenney
Premier
Alberta, Canada
 
The Honorable Nathalie Camden
Sous-ministre associée aux Mines (Associate Deputy Minister of Mines)
Ministère de l'Énergie et des Ressources naturelles (Ministry of Energy & Natural Resources)
Québec, Canada
 
Mr. Francis Bradley
President & Chief Executive Officer
Electricity Canada
 
The Honorable Jonathan Wilkinson
Minister of Natural Resources
Natural Resources Canada
This e-newsletter is produced by Total Spectrum/SGA and Total Spectrum Georgia. The views expressed herein may include subjective commentary and analysis that are the views of the editors and authors alone. Information in this e-newsletter is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but that cannot be guaranteed as independently investigated or verified. Information in this e-newsletter is not an endorsement, advertisement, recommendation, or any type of advice, political, legal, financial, or otherwise. With questions about the content of this e-newsletter, please contact Total Spectrum Georgia.