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Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

"The truth does not drown in water and it doesn't burn in fire."
-Ukrainian proverb

"Always remember, however sure you are that you could easily win, that there would not be a war if the other fellow did not think he also had a chance."
-- Winston Churchil

"No one understood better than Stalin that the true object of propaganda is neither to convince nor even to persuade, but to produce a uniform pattern of public utterance in which the first trace of unorthodox thought immediately reveals itself as a jarring dissonance."
-- Alan Bullock, British historian


1. The U.S. Needs to Bankrupt North Korea’s War Machine
2. S. Korea successfully test-fires solid-fuel space rocket: defense ministry
3. U.S. still analyzing latest N. Korean missile test, but remains concerned
4. U.S. allocates $2.6 billion to defend against N.Korea’s ICBMs
5. North may have tried switcheroo in ICBM test
6. North seems to be restoring Punggye-ri tunnel
7. South Korean military to develop stealth drones, satellite, laser weapons
8. North Korea passed off old intercontinental ballistic missile as newer version, Seoul says
9.  Yoon proposes meeting with Zelenskyy at early date after war ends
10. Navy SEAL-turned-YouTuber says he is conducting secret direct offensive operations in Ukraine
11. Statement of International Support and Solidarity with the U.S. Committee for Human Rights in North Korea
12. S.Korea, U.S. Stage Drills in Warning to N.Korea
13. [Editorial] Fixing failed strategy (north Korea)
14. Facing international sanctions, North Korea-Russia economic cooperation could expand
15. North Korea launches investigation into anti-socialist behavior in Wonsan
16. Hopes for Sino-ROK ties boosted
17. New Japanese Textbooks Water down Descriptions of Wartime Forced Labor
18. Why now? The timing of North Korea’s ICBM test






1.  The U.S. Needs to Bankrupt North Korea’s War Machine

Wise words from Nick Eberstadt.

My two words: strategic strangulation.


The U.S. Needs to Bankrupt North Korea’s War Machine
Diplomacy won’t stop Kim Jong Un from launching missile tests. That happens only when the money runs out.
WSJ · by Nicholas Eberstadt
The explanations from Washington and Asian capitals for these latest launches sometimes sound like the naive foreign-policy punditry from the 1990s, at the very start of Pyongyang’s methodical march to nuclear status. We hear that the Kim regime is trying to get our attention, for example, or that it is shoring up its domestic legitimacy.
Have we really learned so little from a generation of confrontation with this revisionist state? By now it should be clear to observers that Pyongyang fires off new weapons because their development is vital to its fundamental strategic goal of unifying the Korean Peninsula under Kim rule.
To achieve unconditional unification on its own terms, North Korea would first have to break the U.S.-South Korean military alliance. Pyongyang hopes to do that through a nuclear showdown with America. We don’t need to guess about this. Immediately after the latest ICBM launch, one North Korean media outlet explained Mr. Kim’s reasoning for building these new armaments: “the long-term demand of our revolution,” the North Korean term for conquest of the South, presupposes “the inevitability of the longstanding confrontation with the U.S. imperialists.” The logic is simple: No weapons testing, no unification.
This is why regular and recurrent missile launches and nuclear detonations are an essential and entirely predictable feature of North Korea’s behavior. New weaponry has to be tested before the North’s scientists and generals can be certain that it works. Pyongyang is totally committed to strategic modernization, for which Mr. Kim laid out a program in detail at the Party Congress early last year. Advancing that agenda will require continual performance checks on the new equipment, just as past progress in nuclear and missile capabilities necessitated North Korea’s previous experiments.
But why the current flurry of launches? The likely answer is that this is simply Pyongyang’s first opportunity to conduct them. Though Pyongyang has proved adept at keeping outsiders in the dark about its weapons programs, the record suggests North Korea tests prototypes essentially as soon as it can.
The regime seems unwilling (perhaps doctrinally incapable) of waiting until later to test its munitions when it can launch them now—hoping to rush them to mass production as soon as possible.
Planned tests are of course sometimes scheduled for propagandistic considerations—July 4 and North Korean national holidays being especially favored dates for launches and explosions. But the North generally seems to test its new equipment as soon as it is deemed ready, which sometimes turns out to be before it actually is, as this month’s launchpad failure of a long-range missile attests.
Yet for all its haste, Pyongyang also takes curiously long breaks between launches. It’s been more than four years since the North last tested an intercontinental ballistic missile.
Outsiders know precious little about the workings of the overall North Korean economy and even less about its defense sector, but it’s a fair guess that protracted hiatuses between weapons tests are often the result of resource constraints. North Korea’s economy is tiny, inefficient and undependable, while missile and nuclear programs are exacting and extremely expensive (and all the more costly for technologically backward societies). Furthermore, the North Korean economy is painfully prone to unexpected dislocations and severe slumps.
The most recent tests signal that the North Korean economy is finally recovering after Mr. Kim’s draconian Covid lockdowns all but incapacitated it. Economic constraints may also be a reason Pyongyang’s weapons testing dropped off after the United Nations Security Council’s 2017 spate of comprehensive economic sanctions. And they could help explain why the tempo of missile and nuke tests under Kim Jong Il (a notoriously miserable economic manager, even by North Korean standards) was so much slower than under his son Kim Jong Un before those 2017 sanctions. Declaring a self-imposed moratorium—as the North did in 2018—sounds so much better than saying you are unable to scrape together the cash.
President Biden caught a break by entering office while North Korea was suffering from acute, if self-inflicted, economic woes. The recent spate of missile tests suggests North Korea’s weapons programs are back in the black. Further menacing tests may lie in store—we shouldn’t rule out nuclear ones. And the return to testing means we should also expect a resumption of North Korea’s brand of nuclear diplomacy.
Rather than trying to appease Mr. Kim, the Biden administration and the rest of the international community would be well served in identifying, and squelching, the new resource flows funding the North Korean war machine. Pyongyang has launched a lucrative new career in cybercrime. The Kim regime has also benefited from Russian and Chinese sanction-busting. There could well be other illicit revenues worth pursuing; the U.S. intelligence community should find out.
Thirty years of fruitless attempts at diplomatic engagement with the North have demonstrated that outsiders can’t alter the regime’s determination to become a nuclear power. But forceful international economic penalties, tirelessly and creatively applied, can throw sand in the gears of the North’s military programs. We should address this task with the seriousness it deserves. If we don’t try to stop North Korea from becoming a greater threat, we will enter a world in which Pyongyang can credibly threaten the American homeland with nuclear missiles.
Mr. Eberstadt holds a chair at the American Enterprise Institute and is a senior adviser to the National Bureau of Asian Research.
WSJ · by Nicholas Eberstadt


2. S. Korea successfully test-fires solid-fuel space rocket: defense ministry

Superior South Korean technology. 

(LEAD) S. Korea successfully test-fires solid-fuel space rocket: defense ministry | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 강윤승 · March 30, 2022
(ATTN: UPDATES with more details in paras 8-10; ADDS photo)
By Kang Yoon-seung and Song Sang-ho
SEOUL, March 30 (Yonhap) -- South Korea successfully test-fired a solid-fuel space rocket Wednesday, the defense ministry said, following North Korea's intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch last week.
The state-run Agency for Defense Development conducted the first such test at a testing site in Taean, 150 kilometers southwest of Seoul, to confirm capabilities of the homegrown space launch vehicle, according to the ministry.
The launch came after the North's 12 known rounds of missile and other launches this year, including what the North claimed to be "reconnaissance satellite" development tests.
Defense Minister Suh Wook and top military officials attended the event, which the ministry said marked an "important milestone" in enhancing South Korea's independent space-based reconnaissance and surveillance capabilities.

"(The test) came at a very grave juncture in which North Korea has recently breached its moratorium and launched an ICBM," the defense ministry said, referring to the North's voluntary suspension of nuclear and ICBM testing.
"Regarding space as a core realm that significantly affects national security, (the South) will strengthen space defense capabilities based on inter-service cooperation at an early date," it added.
Wednesday's test was aimed at verifying the projectile's performances, including fairing separation and the upper-stage attitude control features, according to the ministry.
The space rocket is designed to put a small satellite into a low Earth orbit for surveillance operations. Compared to liquid-fuel space vehicles, solid-based ones are usually simpler and more cost-effective to launch.
The ministry said it plans to launch an actual satellite mounted on the rocket in the future following additional development procedures.
The ADD and the Korea Aerospace Research Institute are also working together to explore the possibility of developing a new rocket combining both liquid- and solid-fuel engines to improve cost-efficiency and its capacity to carry a heavier payload.
The launch came less than a year after Seoul and Washington agreed to lift the "missile guidelines" restrictions that had barred South Korea from developing or possessing ballistic missiles with a maximum range greater than 800 kilometers.
It also followed a successful combustion test of a solid-propellant engine for a space rocket in July.
Space rocket technologies can be transferred to the private sector in the future to promote the development of the space industry, the ministry said.
colin@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 강윤승 · March 30, 2022



3. U.S. still analyzing latest N. Korean missile test, but remains concerned


Excerpts:
"I will just tell you that we assess that that launch was a probable ICBM and we continue to analyze the test in close coordination with our allies and partners to include the South Koreans," Kirby said when asked about the South Korean assessment of the latest North Korean missile launch, adding, "I don't have an update for you beyond that."
Still, he said the U.S. remains concerned about North Korea's continued efforts to advance its nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities.
"We remain concerned about the North Koreans, their attempt to continue to improve their nuclear capability, as well as their ballistic missile capability. It's provocative. It poses a threat to security on the peninsula and to the region, to our allies and partners," he said.

U.S. still analyzing latest N. Korean missile test, but remains concerned | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · March 30, 2022
By Byun Duk-kun
WASHINGTON, March 29 (Yonhap) -- The United States is still analyzing the nature of North Korea's last missile test that probably involved an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), a Pentagon spokesperson said Tuesday, amid reports that Pyongyang may have falsely claimed success in developing a new ICBM.
John Kirby, however, said the U.S. continues to remain concerned about North Korea's efforts to advance its nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities.
"We are still analyzing this last test," the department press secretary said when asked if the U.S. was concerned about the capability of the North Korean missile involved in the latest launch.

North Korea fired an ICBM on Thursday (Seoul time), which it later said flew 1,090 kilometers at a top altitude of 6,248 km.
Experts in Seoul and Washington have noted the missile, when launched at the right angle, would have traveled at least 13,000 km, enough to reach the mainland U.S.
Pyongyang claims the missile launched was its latest and largest Hwasong-17 with a maximum range of 15,000 km.
The South Korean defense ministry, however, has said the North appears to have fired an earlier model, the Hwasong-15 to disguise its failure in its initial test launch of the Hwasong-17 on March 16.
"I will just tell you that we assess that that launch was a probable ICBM and we continue to analyze the test in close coordination with our allies and partners to include the South Koreans," Kirby said when asked about the South Korean assessment of the latest North Korean missile launch, adding, "I don't have an update for you beyond that."
Still, he said the U.S. remains concerned about North Korea's continued efforts to advance its nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities.
"We remain concerned about the North Koreans, their attempt to continue to improve their nuclear capability, as well as their ballistic missile capability. It's provocative. It poses a threat to security on the peninsula and to the region, to our allies and partners," he said.
North Korea has so far staged 12 rounds of missile firings this year, including seven rounds in January alone that marked the largest number of missile launches it conducted in a single month.
Pyongyang also remains unresponsive to U.S. overtures for dialogue, while staying away from denuclearization talks since late 2019.
bdk@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · March 30, 2022

4. U.S. allocates $2.6 billion to defend against N.Korea’s ICBMs

Everybody analyzes the US defense budget and strategy from their perspectives. Where you stand depends on where you sit.

U.S. allocates $2.6 billion to defend against N.Korea’s ICBMs
Posted March. 30, 2022 07:58,
Updated March. 30, 2022 07:58
U.S. allocates $2.6 billion to defend against N.Korea’s ICBMs. March. 30, 2022 07:58. weappon@donga.com.
In the new National Defense Strategy (NDS) released on Monday (local time), Washington has put responses to Beijing and Moscow a priority and described North Korea as “constantly emerging threats” along with Iran and violent extremist groups. The Biden administration has allocated $2.6 billion for the early deployment of next-generation interceptors (NGI), which are believed to be necessary to defend against North Korea’s intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).

The U.S. Department of Defense submitted its NDS for 2022 to the Congress, which described China as the “pacing challenge” and Russia as an “acute threat.” The response priorities include defending the nation against China’s threats, strategic deterrence against attacks on the U.S. and its allies, addressing challenge from China in the Indo-Pacific region and from Russia in Europe. The Pentagon said China is a priority challenge for the country, emphasizing that it will act urgently to strengthen its deterrence against China.

In the 2018 NDS under the Trump administration, the Pentagon defined North Korea as a “real and imminent threat” and listed it as one of the five major threats to the U.S. security along with China-Russia, Iran, and terrorists. This time, North Korea was described as a threat to be managed even though it had recently launched an ICBM that targeted the U.S. mainland, leading to a speculation that responses to North Korea’s nuclear threat has been pushed back on the list of U.S. defense priorities.



5. North may have tried switcheroo in ICBM test

The Joongang Ilbo headline editor seems a little influenced by the north's Propaganda and Agitation Department as "switcheroo" sounds like something it would use.

The switcheroo might allow them to give up the fake Hwasong 17 in return for sanctions relief, thus giving up nothing in reality and while getting something.

Tuesday
March 29, 2022
North may have tried switcheroo in ICBM test

An intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) is launched from Pyongyang International Airport on Thursday in a photo released by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) Friday. The North claimed the missile was the newer Hwasong-17 but U.S. and South Korean officials have suggested it was the older Hwasong-15. [KCNA]
 
A U.S. official said North Korea may have tested a modified version of a Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) last Thursday, echoing the views of South Korean military officials that the missile in question was not the newer Hwasong-17.  
 
The official, who spoke to the Washington Post on condition of anonymity, said that the missile tested Thursday appeared to be a modified version of the Hwasong-15, an older and smaller model than the Hwasong-17. 
 
The official told the Post that the missile was modified to fly higher and farther than the last ICBM North Korea tested in 2017. The official added that the latest launch shows the North is making incremental progress in improving its ICBM capability. 
 
Those views were expressed earlier by a South Korean military official who told the JoongAng Ilbo on Sunday that the allies were “closely analyzing” the missile fired by the North, but added that they “placed more weight on the possibility that it was a Hwasong-15 missile,” not a Hwasong-17 missile as claimed by the North’s state media. 
 
According to the official, U.S. and South Korean analysis of the missile in question revealed it had two engine nozzles, like the Hwasong-15 that was test-fired in 2017, instead of the Hwasong-17, which has four nozzles. The engine combustion time of the first-stage rocket was also similar to that of the Hwasong-15.
 
The analysis was based on data from the allies’ intelligence assets, including from a U.S. military reconnaissance satellite equipped with infrared thermal sensors.
 
While the missile fired Thursday, which traveled 1,080 kilometers (671 miles) and reached an apogee of over 6,200 kilometers, flew farther than the Hwasong-15 missile that flew some 960 kilometers and topped out at 4,500 kilometers in the 2017 launch, South Korean military authorities believe it could also have been capped with a lighter warhead to fly like the longer-range Hwasong-17.
 
Non-governmental observers have also expressed their doubts about Pyongyang’s purported test of a Hwasong-17 ICBM.
 
“North Korea’s version of events is misleading at best, and possibly a complete fabrication of a successful Hwasong-17 test at worst,” wrote Colin Zwirko, senior analyst at the Seoul-based North Korea-monitoring website NK News.
 
Thursday’s test was the latest in a flurry of missile tests by the regime this year.
 
While the North described missile launches on Feb. 25 and March 5 from Sunan Airfield near Pyongyang as tests for a military reconnaissance satellite system, South Korean and U.S. officials said the launches were preliminary tests of a large new ICBM system.
 
Under successive United Nations Security Council resolutions, the North is barred from conducting any ballistic missile tests, including satellite launches, which employ the same technology.
 
U.S. and South Korean officials are also discussing the possibility that the failure of the missile test conducted by the North on March 16 is tied to Thursday’s ICBM test. 
 
The weapon launched in that test exploded shortly after take-off after reaching an altitude of less than 20 kilometers (12 miles). North Korea’s state media notably did not release any information on that test.
 
According to the Washington Post, U.S. and South Korean officials are discussing the possibility North Korea disguised a modified Hwasong-15 as the newer Hwasong-17 on Thursday, eight days after the test of the newer missile ended in failure.
 

BY MICHAEL LEE [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]



6. North seems to be restoring Punggye-ri tunnel


Setting the conditions to demand sanctions relief through blackmail diplomacy.

Tuesday
March 29, 2022

North seems to be restoring Punggye-ri tunnel
00:0004:40

Recent satellite imagery analysis conducted by nonproliferation expert Katsuhisa Furukawa shows North Korea is in the process of reactivating some parts of its mountainous nuclear weapons test site in Punggye-ri, North Hamgyong Province. [MAXAR TECHNOLOGIES]
 
North Korea is restoring a tunnel to a nuclear test site it demolished in 2018, raising the specter of a nuclear test soon, a nonproliferation expert has written.
 
Writing for the Open Nuclear Network (ONN), a nuclear weapons risk mitigation program run by the Vienna-based One Earth Foundation, ONN senior fellow and former United Nations North Korea panel expert Katsuhisa Furukawa said the North is in the process of reactivating some parts of its mountainous nuclear weapons test site in Punggye-ri, North Hamgyong Province.
 
Commercial satellite imagery show “signs of increasing activities” since last December, especially at the southern access tunnel, or South Portal, of Punggye-ri, according to Furukawa’s report, which ONN released Monday.
 
“These developments clearly show that the DPRK has reactivated, or is in the process of reactivating, some parts of the Punggye-ri nuclear weapon test site, especially the South Portal and the main administrative area,” he wrote, referring to the North by the acronym for its official name, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.
 
He noted that the restoration work includes probable restoration of one of the four former test tunnels, specifically, one that had been built but not previously used for testing.
 
The Punggye-ri nuclear test site has remained almost inactive since May 2018, when North Korea demolished all four portals or tunnels in a much-publicized event witnessed by foreign media allowed into the country to do so.
 
Concerns are growing, however, that the North’s ICBM tests in February and March might have been precursors to a nuclear test by the regime, final proof that its self-imposed moratorium on nuclear and longer-range missile tests, which started in late 2017, is definitely scrapped.
 
Pyongyang has carried out six known nuclear tests since 2006, with the last test being conducted at the Punggye-ri testing site in North Hamgyong Province in September 2017. 
 
Satellite imagery in recent months shows that the regime could be working to repair the test site.
 
According to unnamed South Korean military and intelligence sources, the North is cutting a shortcut into one of the tunnels leading into the mountainous underground site.
 
“(The North) abruptly stopped its initial construction work to restore the entrance to Tunnel 3, and it is digging up the side (of the tunnel),” the source said. “In this way, it seems like it will be possible to restore (the facilities) in a month.” 
 
Furukawa agreed in his report with the South Korean intelligence assessment, writing, “Analysis of available satellite imagery is consistent with this hypothesis, indicating that the DPRK’s excavation efforts have likely started in order to restore the South Portal for use in an upcoming nuclear weapon test.”
 
The nonproliferation expert made observations similar to the ones made by the California-based James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in early March, which told VOA it analyzed satellite images of North Korea's Punggye-ri nuclear test site in North Hamgyong Province and found construction of new buildings and repairs of existing buildings.
 
Furukawa also found indications of construction and repairs at the site in his satellite imagery analysis, noting “increased vehicle traffic” and accumulated soil piles, especially near the secondary entrance to the South Portal.
 
“The DPRK has very likely already started its efforts to restore the secondary entrance to the South Portal or establish a new entrance nearby,” he wrote.
 

BY MICHAEL LEE [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]


7. South Korean military to develop stealth drones, satellite, laser weapons

South Korea is technologically far superior than the north (among many other areas of superiority)

South Korean military to develop stealth drones, satellite, laser weapons
The Korea Times · March 30, 2022
A B-1B Lancer strategic bomber, F-35A and F-35B stealth jets of the U.S., and F-16K and F-15K fighters of South Korea fly in formation over the Korean Peninsula in an annual joint Korea-U.S. air force drill, Dec. 6, 2017. 

South Korea will seek to develop key technologies for radar-evading drones, low-Earth orbit satellites, high-energy laser weapons and other cutting-edge defense assets, the state arms procurement agency said Wednesday. Courtesy of Air Force South Korea will seek to develop key technologies for radar-evading drones, low-Earth orbit satellites, high-energy laser weapons and other cutting-edge defense assets, the state arms procurement agency said Wednesday.

The Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA) laid out its policy priorities at a related panel session, as the country is striving to bolster its security capabilities amid North Korea's evolving nuclear weapons and missile threats.

Among the priorities is developing high-tech flight vehicles, including stealth unmanned aerial vehicles and hypersonic missiles, amid the emerging global competition over their operational range and speed, according to DAPA.

The country also plans to secure the technology by 2024 to place a small satellite into low Earth orbit by using a solid-fuel rocket, as part of efforts to enhance its reconnaissance and surveillance capabilities.

In addition, the country will embark on a project this year to develop technologies for 100 kilowatt laser weapons capable of countering threats from hostile hypersonic missiles, DAPA said.

For such defense technology projects, South Korea has set aside 266.4 billion won ($220 million) for this year, a jump from 20 billion won in 2019. (Yonhap)
The Korea Times · March 30, 2022




8. North Korea passed off old intercontinental ballistic missile as newer version, Seoul says


Images and video at the link below.

I am so glad we are getting this information out there so we can attack the regime's strategy of its long con.

north Korean strategy: recognize it, understand it, exploit it, expose it, attack it.

North Korea passed off old intercontinental ballistic missile as newer version, Seoul says
  • The South’s defence ministry said the ICBM that Pyongyang fired last week was likely a Hwasong-15, which was successfully tested in 2017
  • Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong said the North is preparing for a possible nuclear weapon for the first time in five years
+ FOLLOW
Published: 10:03am, 30 Mar, 2022

North Korea tried to deceive the world about the type of missile it fired last week, claiming that it successfully tested a “huge,” new ICBM while actually firing off a rocket first launched in 2017, South Korean defence officials said.
The intercontinental ballistic missile that North Korea launched last week was likely a Hwasong-15, which was successfully tested in November 2017 and designed to carry a single nuclear warhead, the South Korean defence ministry told lawmakers in a report on Tuesday. That’s less advanced than the Hwasong-17, a multiple-warhead missile, which Pyongyang triumphantly declared a success with a slick, highly produced video.
South Korean officials said the shadows in the video of the Hwasong-17 launch fell in a direction indicating the footage was shot between 8am and 10am, rather than Thursday afternoon, when and ICBM rocketed into space and fell in the sea off of Japan.
The cloud cover shown in the video also didn’t match the weather on the day of the launch, the officials said. That suggests North Korea may have used video from a failed Hwasong-17 test on the morning of March 16 and launched an actual Hwasong-15 to sell it as a success, as previously reported by NK News.
The Kim Jong-un regime has long relied on weapons tests to bolster its image as a national protector, giving it an incentive to cover up missile that failed in an explosion that could be seen in the skies over Pyongyang.
South Korea’s defence ministry said eight days was “not enough time” to identify technical problems and carry out another test of the Hwasong-17. The ministry added that North Korea needed a tool for propaganda after its citizens witnessed the failure of the earlier launch.
North Korea’s state media said Friday that Kim called the successful launch of the new missile a “priceless victory won by the great Korean people,” adding his forces are “are fully ready to thoroughly curb and contain any dangerous military attempts of the US imperialists.”
North Korea releases images of its largest intercontinental ballistic missile test launch yet
The US was analysing the test in coordination with its allies, Defence Department spokesman John Kirby told a news briefing. “I will just tell you that we assessed that that launch was a probable ICBM,” he said, adding “I don’t have an update for you beyond that.”
The ICBM fired on Thursday reached an altitude of 6,200km and travelled 1,080km, according to South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, higher and farther than Pyongyang’s previous ICBM test. The Hwasong-15 has a range that could deliver a nuclear warhead to all of the US mainland, weapons experts have said.
Earlier on Monday, South Korea’s Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong told lawmakers that the government is aware that the North is preparing for a possible nuclear weapon for the first time in five years following reports that Pyongyang has begun restoration and expansion works at the previously closed Punggye-ri nuclear test site.

A satellite image of North Korea’s Punggye-ri nuclear test site. Photo: Maxar Technologies via Reuters
South Korea’s Yonhap news agency said the hermit kingdom appeared to be digging a roundabout tunnel around the closed entrance of South Portal, also known as Tunnel 3, to access the facility.
“The North abruptly stopped its initial work aimed to restore the entrance to Tunnel 3 and it started digging into the side of the tunnel,” Yonhap quoted an unnamed government source as saying.

“In this way, it seems like it will be possible to put the facilities back to use in a month.”
Minister of Unification Lee In-young also told lawmakers that their neighbour is likely to carry out further nuclear tests aimed to develop low-yield small nuclear warheads to be loaded onto missiles.
“There’s still a possibility that [in April], the North will take additional actions to hone its ICBM technology under the pretext of launching satellites,” Lee said.
Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden and Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, after talks at the White House, urged North Korea on Tuesday to halt its ballistic missile launches and return to negotiations over its weapons programmes.
“We both urge North Korea to refrain from further provocations and return to the negotiating table for serious and sustained diplomacy,” Biden said.
North Korea thus far has rejected US appeals to hold direct talks over its nuclear and missile programmes.
Additional reporting by Park Chan-kyong


9.  Yoon proposes meeting with Zelenskyy at early date after war ends

I certainly hope that can be sooner rather than later.

South Korea has a lot of experience rebuilding after conflict.

(LEAD) Yoon proposes meeting with Zelenskyy at early date after war ends | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · March 30, 2022
(ATTN: UPDATES throughout with details, background; CORRECTS date of call in 2nd para)
By Lee Haye-ah
SEOUL, March 30 (Yonhap) -- President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol proposed a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at an early date after the Ukraine-Russia war ends, his spokesperson said Wednesday.
Yoon made the proposal during a phone call with Zelenskyy on Tuesday, Kim Eun-hye said during a press briefing when asked if she could disclose details of the conversation.
Kim initially said Tuesday that details would not be revealed "as Ukraine is currently in a state of war."

"Fruitful cooperation has large implications in light of what we see daily in Ukraine," she said, referring to Zelenskyy's tweet on the phone call.
Zelenskyy wrote that he thanked the South Korean people for their support for Ukraine and "expressed conviction in further fruitful cooperation."
"President-elect Yoon also expressed his wish for the two countries to meet at an early date after the end of the war for talks on ways to build practical cooperation," Kim said.
"In that sense, President Zelenskyy's tweet and the wishes of President-elect Yoon ... align."
Yoon has previously expressed his support for the Ukrainian people in their fight against Russia's invasion.
On March 2, he met with Ukrainian Ambassador-designate to South Korea Dmytro Ponomarenko as the then presidential candidate of the main opposition People Power Party and promised to do his best to send supplies and basic necessities to the Ukrainian people if the envoy made a request.
He also gave Ponomarenko a letter and a financial donation for the Ukrainian people in a personal capacity.
"It is only natural that the many free nations of the world, including the Republic of Korea, are condemning Russia's invasion, which is a clear violation of international law, and participating in sanctions," Yoon said at the time.
hague@yna.co.kr
(END)
Related Articles
en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · March 30, 2022

10. Navy SEAL-turned-YouTuber says he is conducting secret direct offensive operations in Ukraine



Navy SEAL-turned-YouTuber says he is conducting secret direct offensive operations in Ukraine | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 박보람 · March 30, 2022
SEOUL, March 30 (Yonhap) -- Navy SEAL-turned-YouTuber Rhee Keun, who left for Ukraine to join the war against Russia, claimed Wednesday his special combat team is conducting confidential direct offensive operations in the country.
Rhee, a former South Korean Navy special warfare officer, left for Ukraine in early March to join the war against Russia, without government authorization. South Korea has prohibited its citizens from traveling to the country since mid-February.
"After I arrived at the International Legion and signed my contract, I was tasked with creating a special team of multinational combat veterans," Rhee said via an Instagram feed.
"My team was then given assignments that are confidential ... We have since yesterday been redeployed and are conducting direct offensive operations," the YouTuber said, adding he cannot disclose further details for security reasons.
In a photo he uploaded, Rhee, in a combat suit, was sitting inside a battered building, holding a rifle.

"I have the full backing of my superiors, the Armed Forces, and the Ukrainian people. I know that all are very grateful for the work that the international legionnaires are doing here," he said, adding that the Instagram post was cleared and authorized by the International Legion for the Defense of Ukraine
In response to a text message from Yonhap News Agency seeking to verify Rhee's claim, Damien Magrou, a spokesperson for the International Legion for the Defense of Ukraine, confirmed that the posting was discussed with the legion before being uploaded.
pbr@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 박보람 · March 30, 2022


11. Statement of International Support and Solidarity with the U.S. Committee for Human Rights in North Korea

Excerpt:

HRNK is part of a global movement that seeks to advance the human rights and welfare of North Koreans, a movement that will grow and fight until the day that all North Koreans are free.

We all stand in solidarity and support of HRNK. We hope you do too.

Statement of International Support and Solidarity with the U.S. Committee for Human Rights in North Korea
Dear Friends of HRNK,

On March 16, 2022, a group of human rights organizations, scholars, and activists published a letter in solidarity with HRNK. The letter was written in response to a March 1 article about HRNK by North Korea's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, entitled "The Disgraceful Behavior of a Fake Human Rights Organization."

The full text of the letter is enclosed below. We wish to thank not only the organizations and individuals who signed this letter, but also everyone who is committed to "the shared goal of promoting human rights and improving the welfare for all the people of North Korea," as stated below, for your steadfast support.

Greg Scarlatoiu
Executive Director
 
Statement of International Support and Solidarity with the U.S. Committee for Human Rights in North Korea
March 16, 2022
On March 1, North Korea's Ministry of Foreign Affairs posted an article on its website, entitled "The Disgraceful Behavior of a Fake Human Rights Organization," criticizing the U.S. Committee for Human Rights in North Korea (HRNK) as "being directly controlled by the U.S. government under the guise of a non-governmental organization to slander the dignity of our country and overthrow our institutions." We believe that North Korea's Ministry of Foreign Affairs released this statement at this time due to HRNK's effectiveness in their investigations, reporting, and focus on accountability on North Korea's human rights record.

HRNK published a response to the article, which can be read on this link.

The purpose of this letter is for civil society organizations and individuals to publicly state our solidarity and support of the U.S. Committee for Human Rights in North Korea (HRNK) and its mission to promote human rights in North Korea, and their guiding objectives, which are to: close North Korea's gulags, open North Korea's borders, inform North Korea's citizens, foster good economic principles, promote access throughout North Korea, feed the hungry in North Korea, and link development assistance to North Korea to tangible improvements in the regime's human rights record.

HRNK has been at the forefront of promoting human rights in North Korea for over twenty years, and this organization has steadfastly and rigorously conducted research, promoted the voices of North Korean escapees, and built a network of advocates and experts to pursue the organization's guiding objectives. It is resoundingly clear that HRNK is a civil society organization that is independent of any government, including the government of the United States of America.

All the co-signers of this letter have the shared goal of promoting human rights and improving the welfare for all the people of North Korea, and the shared desire for sustainable peace, freedom and prosperity of all North Koreans. There is a strong and growing global community of individuals and organizations who share this goal of improving human rights for all North Koreans. An essential part of this growing network comprises North Korean escapees who know better than anyone else about the systematic violations that the North Korean regime commits against its citizens. Hyunseung Lee is one of them; he was born in North Korea and defected with his family in 2014 after witnessing brutal purges by Kim Jong Un. He is now a U.S.-based advocate for human rights in North Korea and shared that as someone who lived in North Korea for almost thirty years who "won the national student 7.15 summa cum laude award, served in the military, and was a member of the Korean Workers' Party, he had never heard or learned about human rights and basic freedoms."

HRNK is part of a global movement that seeks to advance the human rights and welfare of North Koreans, a movement that will grow and fight until the day that all North Koreans are free.

We all stand in solidarity and support of HRNK. We hope you do too.


Signed by:

Database Center for North Korean Human Rights, South Korea

Divided Families USA

Dr. Sandra Fahy, Associate Professor, Carleton University, Canada

HanVoice, Canada

Human Rights Foundation, United States

Hyun-Seung Lee, Human Rights Activist and North Korean escapee

Ji Hyun Park, Human Rights Activist and North Korean escapee

Liberty in North Korea, United States

Lumen, United States

North Korea Freedom Coalition, United States

Now Action & Unity Human rights (NAUH), South Korea

Suji An, Human Rights Activist, NAUH

Timothy Cho, Inquiry Clerk to the All-Party Parliamentary Group on North Korea (and North Korean escapee)

Transitional Justice Working Group, South Korea

Woorion, South Korea


12. S.Korea, U.S. Stage Drills in Warning to N.Korea
Deterrence: capability, credibility, communication.  
S.Korea, U.S. Stage Drills in Warning to N.Korea
March 30, 2022 10:55
The U.S. staged an aerial show of force by scrambling several dozen stealth fighters at Eielson Air Force Base in Alaska last Friday, the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command said Monday.
The so-called "elephant walk" coincided with the South Korean military's similar exercise the same day, just a day after North Korea fired an intercontinental ballistic missile, the first since November 2017.
The elephant walk refers to the close formation of military aircraft before takeoff.
The coinciding drills of the South Korean and U.S. militaries can be seen as part of concerted efforts to suppress further provocations by North Korea, as well as a response to its latest ICBM launch.
But a military spokesman here said, "There was no coordination with the U.S. to conduct the same exercise on the same day."
Stealth fighter jets sit on the runway at Eielson Air Force Base in Alaska on March 25.
Meanwhile, the top military brass of South Korea, Japan and the U.S. will hold a meeting in Hawaii on Thursday, the Joint Chiefs of Staff here said Tuesday.
They are expected to assess military preparedness and discuss countermeasures against North Korea's nuclear and missile threats. With last week's missile launch, the North officially scrapped a moratorium on ICBM and nuclear tests it declared in 2018.

  • Copyright © Chosunilbo & Chosun.com




13. [Editorial] Fixing failed strategy (north Korea)

Conclusion:

President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol warned against North Korea over its provocative acts and called on Chinese President Xi Jinping to cooperate closely for North Korea’s denuclearization. More importantly, Yoon should strengthen the country’s alliance with the US as part of its efforts to fix the failed strategy against North Korea.

[Editorial] Fixing failed strategy
koreaherald.com · by Korea Herald · March 27, 2022
N. Korea’s ICBM missile test ups ante; UNSC fails to adopt press statement
Published : Mar 28, 2022 - 05:30 Updated : Mar 29, 2022 - 09:58
North Korea’s old survival playbook has gotten more sophisticated over the past few decades. The formula is rather straightforward. It develops and test-fires new missiles that could pose a threat to South Korea and its allies, particularly the United States. Once it gets rewards such as sanctions relief, it suspends its weapons program for a while. However, when a new geopolitical change is in sight the regime resumes test-firing missiles, often armed with more advanced technologies.

Seoul and Washington are fully aware of Pyongyang’s simple strategy aimed at securing its survival by orchestrating a cycle of saber-rattling and covert weapons development.

The problem is that South Korea and the US find it extremely difficult to get Pyongyang to give up on its playbook. As a result, North Korea is joyfully having a missile-test field day, now featuring an intercontinental ballistic missile.

On Thursday, North Korea test-fired an ICBM that flew from the Sunan area of its capital city Pyongyang toward the East Sea, ending a hiatus that lasted for over four years and officially breaking its self-imposed moratorium on ICBM and nuclear tests that had been in place since November 2017.

The ICBM launch did not come as a total surprise, as Pyongyang had already launched 11 previous rounds of missile tests this year, showcasing a new hypersonic missile and an intermediate-range ballistic missile.

President Moon Jae-in, who has pushed for an engagement policy with Pyongyang while trying not to issue official condemnations against the regime, broke his silence and said the ICBM launch “poses a serious threat to the Korean Peninsula, the region and the international community and clearly violates UN Security Council resolutions.”

It is regrettable that Moon made the long overdue statement against North Korea’s missile tests after missing so many chances to do so in recent months. Instead of directly condemning such provocations, President Moon focused on promoting the idea of pulling off an end-of-war declaration on the Korean Peninsula, even though critics and experts alike point out that it is a problematic, if not unrealistic, initiative.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un delicately timed the ICBM launch at an optimal time, when South Korea was transitioning to a new administration following the tight March 9 presidential election and the geopolitical turmoil sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

North Korea confirmed that it test-fired a new type of ICBM under the order of Kim Jong-un. The North Korean leader had vowed to enhance its nuclear deterrence capabilities and prepare for a “long-standing confrontation” with the US.

It is now a matter of time before Pyongyang would toy with both missile launches and nuclear tests, suggesting that Moon’s inter-Korean policy based on naive expectations about Pyongyang may result in heightening the geopolitical tension and helping the regime buy time to develop more destructive weapons.

The road ahead appears to be filled with a slew of potholes before South Korea and its allies jointly secure a breakthrough.

The UN Security Council held an emergency meeting and discussed the adoption of a press statement denouncing Pyongyang’s latest ICBM launch. Due to the opposition from China and Russia however, the UNSC failed to adopt a statement, even though most member states condemned the ICBM launch and expressed concerns.

US ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield said it is a failed strategy to remain silent in the hope that North Korea would similarly show restraint.

President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol warned against North Korea over its provocative acts and called on Chinese President Xi Jinping to cooperate closely for North Korea’s denuclearization. More importantly, Yoon should strengthen the country’s alliance with the US as part of its efforts to fix the failed strategy against North Korea.

By Korea Herald (khnews@heraldcorp.com)




14. Facing international sanctions, North Korea-Russia economic cooperation could expand


Russia is complicit in north Korean sanctions evasion activities.

Facing international sanctions, North Korea-Russia economic cooperation could expand
North Korea could expand its labor dispatches beyond construction workers and loggers to include female light industrial workers, one expert told Daily NK
By Seulkee Jang - 2022.03.30 1:44pm
Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un in Vladivostok, Russia, on April 25, 2019. (Sputnik/Alexei Nikolsky/Kremlin via Reuters)
Speculation has emerged that North Korea could buy low-priced crude oil from Russia as Pyongyang and Moscow grow closer in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. However, experts say that even if North Korea imports Russian oil, they are unlikely to get it as cheaply as the oil they receive from China.
Troy Stangarone, senior director and fellow at the Korea Economic Institute of America, recently told Daily NK that North Korea is unlikely to import crude oil from Russia. He said North Korea has only one refinery where it could refine Russian crude, and that facility has not been in operation for years.
He said if a refinery has been out of operation for a while, it needs retooling and investment to restart, and re-achieving normal efficiency takes a long time. Because of this, North Korean authorities would have a tough time importing Russian crude.
However, Stangarone said he could not completely discount the possibility of North Korea importing pre-refined gasoline or diesel.
An overseas expert on the North Korean economy who requested anonymity said that because Pyongyang has experience in illegally importing Russian refined oil using ship-to-ship transfers on the high seas, North Korea could import oil from Russia using similar methods if they need to.
In fact, Russia reported to the UN Security Council Sanctions Committee on North Korea that it exported 30,180 tons of refined oil to North Korea in 2019.
At the time, China reported that it exported just 22,730 tons of refined oil to North Korea, making Russia the biggest supplier of refined oil to North Korea that year.
However, with international oil prices skyrocketing, North Korea is unlikely to benefit in terms of price even with Russian oil, which has fallen in price relatively speaking.
In a telephone conversation with Daily NK, Russia-born Korea expert Andrei Lankov, a professor at Kookmin University, said that even if Russia and North Korea bolster their economic cooperation, that cooperation would take the form of mutual trade rather than freebies. He said it is highly unlikely Russia would provide North Korea with refined oil for free or at prices much lower than international oil prices.
He believes that China could provide very cheap crude or refined oil to North Korea because China’s economy is much larger than Russia’s and Beijing places great political and strategic value on North Korea. Russia, on the other hand, suffers economic instability and risks going bankrupt due to international sanctions in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine, so it has no reason to provide cheap oil to the North.
Stangarone said if North Korea imports refined oil from Russia, Pyongyang must consider two factors: how much of a discount the country could receive, and the ease in which the oil could be obtained. 
He said even though Russia is exporting cheap oil to India, New Delhi is getting discounts of just USD 25-35 a barrel. With international oil prices over USD 100 a barrel, North Korea would find Russian oil imports burdensome, even if Moscow quotes them a cheap price.
In particular, with Russia experiencing serious foreign exchange shortages due to Western sanctions, North Korea is not an attractive customer.
Nevertheless, economic cooperation between North Korea and Russia is likely to expand. 
The Russian Foreign Ministry said on Mar. 22 that Deputy Foreign Minister Igor Morgulov had met North Korea’s ambassador to Russia, Sin Hong Chol, with the two discussing “issues of the development of bilateral relations in the context of changes taking place in the international arena.”
This suggests that since both North Korea and Russia are under international sanctions, they can expand trade even if they are less-than-perfect trading partners.
North Korea has few economic carrots to offer Russia since the economies of the two counties are largely incompatible. However, with Ukrainians and Central Asians leaving Russia due to the war, North Korea could offer to dispatch workers.
Kookmin University’s Lankov said North Korea places little value on most of what North Korea can export, but with labor becoming a major issue in Russia, North Korea could expand its labor dispatches beyond construction workers and loggers to include female light industrial workers. He said it remains unknown what economic linkages were discussed during recent high-ranking talks between North Korea and Russia, but labor dispatches must have been one of them.
Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.
Seulkee Jang is one of Daily NK’s full-time journalists. Please direct any questions about her articles to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.

15. North Korea launches investigation into anti-socialist behavior in Wonsan
Foreign culture in the hands and minds of the Korean people in the north is a threat to the regime.

North Korea launches investigation into anti-socialist behavior in Wonsan
The government has designated Wonsan the second biggest source of foreign culture behind Pyongyang, a source told Daily NK
By Jong So Yong - 2022.03.30 1:59pm
The Wonsan-Kalma coastal tourist zone. (KCNA)
The headquarters of the unified command on non-socialist and anti-socialist behavior in Pyongyang recently launched an intensive investigation into untoward behavior in Wonsan, Gangwon Province.
A source in the province told Daily NK on Tuesday that in declaring the investigation, the unified command designated Wonsan a source of “outside culture,” and vowed to eliminate those who protect and incite anti-socialist or non-socialist behavior, “even if they are cadres.”
The source said the investigation began after the authorities launched an intensive investigation in Pyongyang. The authorities had discovered that the North Korean capital was a distribution hotspot of foreign culture and ordered that the problem be quietly resolved. During the investigation, the authorities found that Pyongyang’s “malignant tumor” had spread to Wonsan.
During the Pyongyang investigation, the authorities discovered that university students had brought USBs with foreign videos to Wonsan, a city easily reached by private bus for those with citizen IDs. Immediately afterwards, they commenced their sweeping investigation of the port city. 
The source said the government designated Wonsan the second biggest source of foreign culture behind Pyongyang, and organized an intensive investigation to “boldly eliminate those who protect and encourage anti-socialist and non-socialist behavior” from the ranks of the cadres. He said the authorities intend to completely purge offenders in the city as a “trial run” to a national crackdown. 
The unified command headquarters from Pyongyang is jointly conducting the investigation with the provincial unified command headquarters of Gangwon Province. The deputy head of the Central Committee’s Rule Inspection Department and deputy chief of the Central Public Prosecutor’s Office have also come down from Pyongyang to take part in the effort.
Investigators currently believe young university students are the biggest problem. This is because young people suffer “severe exposure” to foreign culture, so much so that the buying and selling of USBs with foreign videos has become commonplace among youth.
Moreover, university party committees and youth organizations take little issue with this phenomenon even when they learn about it, something the Central Committee regards as a serious problem.
In fact, despite countless busts at Ri Su Dok Wonsan Teachers Training College, Chong Jun Taek University of Economics, and three other Wonsan universities, school authorities did not consider the infractions to be serious. Investigators are now closely scrutinizing the political and ideological tendencies of the universities’ party committees and Socialist Patriotic Youth League committees.
The source said the unified command headquarters from Pyongyang also worked to get to the bottom of every case they discovered, unveiling the sources of the problem. He said university cadres and leading party and state officials whose children were nabbed were subjected to “ideological struggle sessions” and sacked on the spot.
He added that investigators also lambasted the attitude of court officials who were unable to resist the “influence, bureaucratism, and corruption of cadres,” and overlooked or assisted in anti-socialist and non-socialist behavior. 
The unified headquarters from Pyongyang also announced it would dissolve the current provincial unified command headquarters of Gangwon Province and build it back even stronger — and 1.5 times larger — with new personnel.
Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.
Jong So Yong is one of Daily NK’s freelance reporters. Questions about her articles can be directed to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.

16. Hopes for Sino-ROK ties boosted

Chinese propaganda trying to influence South korea.

Hopes for Sino-ROK ties boosted
chinadaily.com.cn · by 姜璐
President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol speaks during a press conference at the National Assembly Library in Seoul, South Korea, March 10, 2022. [Photo/Xinhua]
Call between Xi and president-elect Yoon stresses partnership, experts say
The first phone call between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Yoon Suk-yeol, president-elect of the Republic of Korea, underlines the importance of bilateral ties and shows that the two countries can explore cooperation despite their differences, experts say.
Xi spoke with Yoon on March 25.
"Maintaining a good relationship with every country is essential for every country," said Bong Youngshik, a research fellow at the Yonsei Institute for North Korean Studies in Seoul. Bong said it is a "false dichotomy" to think that the ROK needs to choose between China and the United States.
Noting how Xi emphasized the non-zero-sum international order, Bong said the ROK government is expressing a similar philosophy-that it can pursue mutual interest and cooperation with the US without jeopardizing the bilateral partnership with China, and vice versa.
This year marks the 30th anniversary of the establishment of China-ROK diplomatic ties. Xi said the two neighbors need to take this as an opportunity to further uphold mutual respect, strengthen political trust, and enhance people-to-people friendship, with a view to the steady and sustained growth of bilateral ties.
Given the many challenges facing the international community, Xi said China and the ROK as "inseparable partners of cooperation" have a responsibility to maintain regional peace and promote global prosperity.
Yoon, whose inauguration will take place on May 10, expressed the ROK's readiness to step up high-level exchanges with China, enhance mutual trust and promote people-to-people friendship, in order to take ROK-China relations to a new level.
Noting this was the first time that Xi has spoken with a president-elect of the ROK, Ramon Pacheco Pardo, head of the Department of European and International Studies at King's College London, said this underscores the importance that both countries give to their bilateral relationship.
"President-elect Yoon has made it clear that he is going to try to cooperate with China on (the Democratic People's Republic of Korea)," Pacheco Pardo said in an interview with ROK TV network Arirang News.
During the phone call with Xi, Yoon said closer cooperation between the ROK and China will serve their respective development paths and benefit their peoples, and also contribute to peace and stability in Northeast Asia.
When meeting with the Chinese ambassador to the ROK, Xing Haiming, on March 11, two days after the election, Yoon said the ROK is willing to deepen its communication and cooperation with China on bilateral, regional and international issues.
Robert Kelly, professor of international relations at the ROK's Pusan National University, said China-ROK relations may face headwinds as Yoon seems more hawkish than the outgoing President Moon Jae-in.
Closer relationship sought
But aiming for a closer relationship with the US does not mean the ROK would be trying to contain China or join an anti-China alliance, said Kelly, noting the ROK has been trying hard to "keep their foot in both camps".
Kelly cited the ROK's membership of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, the world's largest free-trade pact, of which China is also a signatory.
Exports account for about half of the ROK's economy and China is its biggest trading partner. In 2021, shipments to China rose 22.9 percent year-on-year to $162.94 billion, according to the ROK's Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy.
Bong said he expects pragmatism to be the key word for the new government in terms of national security and foreign relations, rather than an ideological pursuit of any improvement of the security conditions on the Korean Peninsula.
"The new line of foreign policy and national policy of the Yoon Sukyeol government will be far less ideological-driven but more based upon pragmatic transaction such as a quid pro quo and a verifiable and substantial give-and-take kind of diplomatic approach," said Bong.
chinadaily.com.cn · by 姜璐
17. New Japanese Textbooks Water down Descriptions of Wartime Forced Labor
One step forward, two steps back?

New Japanese Textbooks Water down Descriptions of Wartime Forced Labor
Japan will remove the word "forced" from any reference to conscription or mobilization in support of the Imperial Japanese Army during World War II from new high school textbooks to be introduced there next year.
It is yet another bid by Japan to whitewash the island country's abysmal colonial and wartime history.
The Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology said Tuesday it authorized 239 textbooks for second and third graders in high schools for 2023. Among them, 14 history textbooks have had some descriptions changed.
A history textbook by Yamakawa Publishing, which is the most widely used in Japanese high schools, formerly described Koreans and Chinese people as having been "forced" by Imperial Japan to labor in coal mines and factories. In the new version, however, that has been changed to say that Koreans were "conscripted" into service, while Chinese were "taken" to Japan to work in factories. Similarly, in a textbook published by Jitkyo, the phrase "forced conscription" has been changed to "mobilization."
The Japanese ministry demanded the revisions, claiming that the expressions used previously "are not based on the [Japanese] government's unified stance."
Japan last year decreed that school textbooks are no longer to refer to the Imperial Army's sexual slaves and labor conscription as "military comfort women" and "forced labor conscription," but as "comfort women" and "labor conscription" instead.
Also, more textbooks now assert Japanese territorial claims to Korea’s easternmost islets of Dokdo. Previously, no world history books mentioned Dokdo, but now two of them refer to the islets as belonging to Japan.
The Foreign Ministry here said in a statement, "Our government expresses regret over the changes made to Japan's history books that water down the fact that women were forced into sexual slavery and people were forcefully conscripted." The ministry also summoned Naoki Kumagai, deputy chief of mission at the Japanese Embassy in Korea, to lodge a complaint.
18. Why now? The timing of North Korea’s ICBM test

History is a funny thing and useful too if we only paid attention to it.

Excerpts:
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has made it a priority to upgrade the country’s nuclear arsenal to include solid-fuel ICBMs that can be launched from land and sea with mainland United States as the principal target. In the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of the non-nuclear armed Ukraine, North Korean high-ranking party cadres increasingly believed that the country needed to improve their nuclear weapons to defend against a foreign invasion, not to trade them away for economic aid.
However, the timing of the test shows that political calculations are in play, too. Some argued that the North saw a window of opportunity to exploit, with the world’s attention otherwise focused on the war in Ukraine. Others attribute the test to the power transition following elections in South Korea, as history showed that North Korea has done so before assuming South Korea could not respond firmly to such provocation. It could also be that North Korea expects a hawkish foreign policy from President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol.
North Korea has never abandoned its aims to undermine the US-South Korea alliance, either through a show of force or a show of peace. As I wrote in The Interpreter in April 2018 (“The peril of North Korea’s charm offensive”), North Korea’s strategy to decouple the United States and South Korea depends on the ideologies of South Korea’s presidents. If the president is a liberal with a pro-engagement policy, Pyongyang will adopt soft-decoupling. It wants to weaken the US-South Korea alliance by cooperating with the South and looking for a settlement that presages a US military withdrawal from the peninsula. As we have seen under the outgoing Moon Jae-in administration, despite the many “historic” summits and joint statements, North Korea stuck firmly to its goal – that the United States should withdraw its “hostile” policies, which includes the military presence in the South.
...
Expecting North Korea’s hostility, Yoon has appointed several North Korea hawks from the former conservative Lee Myung-bak administration on his transition team, and he has said he wants to “rebuild” the US-South Korea alliance to better cope with the North. North Korea’s history of provocations during past conservative presidencies in the South indicate that the ICBM test is likely to be followed by further nuclear tests. Kim has already committed to developing “powerful strike means” to defend the country. South Korea’s Ministry of Unification has warned of “accidental clashes” along the inter-Korean border.

Conditions for another nuclear crisis on the peninsula are unfortunately ripe.



Why now? The timing of North Korea’s ICBM test
History has an alarming habit of repeating on the Korean peninsula.
lowyinstitute.org · by Khang Vu
More than two years after threatening to scrap a self-imposed nuclear and long-range missile testing moratorium, North Korea finally delivered this past week with Pyongyang’s state media announcing the launch of the Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).
Some doubts linger over the precise details of the test, with South Korea and the United States believing that it was actually the Hwasong-15, an ICBM tested in 2017. Still, no matter the exact type of the missile, North Korea demonstrated progress with the latest launch as the missile flew higher and farther than before.
It was the first time since November 2017 that the North launched an ICBM after engaging in diplomacy with the United States and South Korea in 2018 and 2019.
There is little doubt point of the test was foremost intended to increase its military capabilities. The Hwasong-17 was first unveiled during a military parade in October 2020 and assessed to have a range of 15,000 kilometres. It is assumed to be able to carry multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles. In short, pending confirmation of these capabilities, the tested missile provides more evidence that North Korean ICBMs can put all of continental United States within range.
Some argued that the North saw a window of opportunity to exploit, with the world’s attention otherwise focused on the war in Ukraine.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has made it a priority to upgrade the country’s nuclear arsenal to include solid-fuel ICBMs that can be launched from land and sea with mainland United States as the principal target. In the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of the non-nuclear armed Ukraine, North Korean high-ranking party cadres increasingly believed that the country needed to improve their nuclear weapons to defend against a foreign invasion, not to trade them away for economic aid.
However, the timing of the test shows that political calculations are in play, too. Some argued that the North saw a window of opportunity to exploit, with the world’s attention otherwise focused on the war in Ukraine. Others attribute the test to the power transition following elections in South Korea, as history showed that North Korea has done so before assuming South Korea could not respond firmly to such provocation. It could also be that North Korea expects a hawkish foreign policy from President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol.
President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol visits Seoul National Cemetery on 10 March (Koreanet/Flickr)
North Korea has never abandoned its aims to undermine the US-South Korea alliance, either through a show of force or a show of peace. As I wrote in The Interpreter in April 2018 (“The peril of North Korea’s charm offensive”), North Korea’s strategy to decouple the United States and South Korea depends on the ideologies of South Korea’s presidents. If the president is a liberal with a pro-engagement policy, Pyongyang will adopt soft-decoupling. It wants to weaken the US-South Korea alliance by cooperating with the South and looking for a settlement that presages a US military withdrawal from the peninsula. As we have seen under the outgoing Moon Jae-in administration, despite the many “historic” summits and joint statements, North Korea stuck firmly to its goal – that the United States should withdraw its “hostile” policies, which includes the military presence in the South.
At other times, if the president is a conservative with a more hawkish North Korea policy, Pyongyang will switch to hard-decoupling. It will carry out more nuclear or missile tests to make the United States recalculate its extended deterrence to the South and to increase South Korea’s doubt about the US security guarantee. Will the United States trade New York for Seoul, for example?
The fact that North Korea officially confirmed this latest test to be an ICBM demonstrates shows that Pyongyang no longer feels it needed to hold back to keep hopes of diplomacy alive
These two strategies have a common logic of decoupling that sooner or later, North Korea will be able to improve its nuclear arsenal and long-range missiles to a degree that it can put unbearable pressure on the alliance and weaken it altogether. Such a desire explains why the North has not abandoned its nuclear weapons even when Kim and Moon proclaimed at the 2018 Panmunjom Summit that “there will be no more war and a new era of peace has begun on the Korean peninsula”.
So the timing of the ICBM test matters. North Korea did not shy away from provocations under Moon’s tenure, but it did comply with its self-imposed moratorium and the action it did take was calculated not to lead to strong condemnations from the United States and South Korea, foreclosing the diplomatic options. While the outcome of the South’s presidential election was unclear in the lead up to the polls, North Korea framed its long-range missile launches as reconnaissance satellite tests, although the technology is similar.
However, with Yoon’s victory, North Korea probably assesses that chances of engagement have significantly decreased. While Yoon said he would remain open for diplomacy, he conditioned the lifting of international sanctions, the revival of inter-Korean economic cooperation, and the signing of an end-of-war declaration would only come after North Korea has taken “substantial steps” towards disarmament. The fact that North Korea officially confirmed this latest test to be an ICBM demonstrates shows that Pyongyang no longer feels it needed to hold back to keep hopes of diplomacy alive. Whether the ICBM is Hwasong-17 or 15, the self-imposed moratorium is still broken.
Expecting North Korea’s hostility, Yoon has appointed several North Korea hawks from the former conservative Lee Myung-bak administration on his transition team, and he has said he wants to “rebuild” the US-South Korea alliance to better cope with the North. North Korea’s history of provocations during past conservative presidencies in the South indicate that the ICBM test is likely to be followed by further nuclear tests. Kim has already committed to developing “powerful strike means” to defend the country. South Korea’s Ministry of Unification has warned of “accidental clashes” along the inter-Korean border.
Conditions for another nuclear crisis on the peninsula are unfortunately ripe.
lowyinstitute.org · by Khang Vu


V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Personal Email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
Web Site: www.fdd.org
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
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Subscribe to FDD’s new podcastForeign Podicy
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Personal Email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
Web Site: www.fdd.org
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Subscribe to FDD’s new podcastForeign Podicy
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."
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