Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

“When stupidity is considered patriotism, it is unsafe to be intelligent.”

- Isaac Asimov

"Our power is our ability to decide."

- Buckminister Fuller

"Security is mostly a superstition. It does not exist in nature, nor do the children of men as a whole experience it. Avoiding danger is no safer in the long run than outright exposure. Life is either a daring adventure or nothing."

- Helen Keller from The Open Door, 1957, p.17.

1. ‘The Sister’ Review: North Korea’s Sibling Dynasty

2. Ex-US intelligence officer for North Korea points to growing concern on nuclear threat toward South

3. The Perils of a Renewed North Korea-Russia Relationship

4. China, North Korea pursue new targets while honing cyber capabilities

5. Sinpho South Shipyard: New Submarine Makes Debut, but With Many Questions To Be Answered

6. Japan and South Korea’s rapprochement is shakier than it looks

7. N. Korean leader attends paramilitary parade to mark key anniversary

8. DP leader questioned over illegal money transfers to N. Korea

9. Yoon, Biden meet on margins of G20 summit

10. Nuclear-powered submarines: A timely necessity for S. Korea

11. S. Korea deplores N. Korea's launch of nuclear attack submarine

12. Fans left confused after Wales welcomes Korea with Chinese characters

13. S. Korean nuclear envoy voices concerns over forced repatriation of NK defectors in meeting with UN rapporteur

14, 3 minor natural earthquakes strike near N. Korea's nuclear test site

15. [INTERVIEW] N. Korean defector keeps fingers crossed for daughter detained in China

16. Vladimir Putin - Kim Jong Un Summit: A Partnership of Gangsters

17. China distances itself from North Korea-Russia ties: experts

18. Analysis | How the Nuclear Missile Threat from North Korea Keeps Growing

1. ‘The Sister’ Review: North Korea’s Sibling Dynasty

This is a powerful review about a most excellent book that will be the definitive biography of "the most dangerous women in the world" who will remain so until the Kim family regime is no longer in power. There is probably no other book that will help us to understand the nature of the Kim family regime than this one by Dr. Sung-Yoon Lee

As long as the Kim family regime remains in power this book will be a must read for all Korea watchers, policymakers associated with Korea policymaking, and for the layperson who simply wants to try to understand what is happening in north Korea and why.

Excerpts:

Ms. Kim appears to have inherited the Kim dictators’ capacity for cruelty. She reportedly ordered the executions of several high-ranking officials for the “crime” of getting on her nerves and sent other offenders to possible death sentences in prison camps along with their families. Behind her back, according to Mr. Lee, she is called a “bloodthirsty demon” and “devil woman.” Her nickname is Empress Dowager Cixi, after the ruthless ruler of China during the late 19th and early 20th centuries.

As for Mr. Lee, he has many names for her, among them “her royal personage,” “haughty princess” and “co-dictator.” But his book’s subtitle says it best. Kim Yo Jong is “the most dangerous woman in the world.” After reading “The Sister,” I fear he’s right.

Those who would benefit most from reading “The Sister” are the 25 million citizens of North Korea, who are taught to worship the Kim family but know next to nothing about it. Here’s a subversive thought: One of the radio stations that broadcasts into the North—Voice of America, perhaps, or an escapee-run station in Seoul—could broadcast excerpts from the book. If North Koreans knew the truth about the family that has oppressed them for 70 years, who knows what they might be inspired to accomplish.

‘The Sister’ Review: North Korea’s Sibling Dynasty

Kim Jong Un was not the only member of his family raised to rule. His sister Kim Yo Jong displays an instinct for power.

https://www.wsj.com/arts-culture/books/the-sister-review-north-koreas-sibling-dynasty-98a62ec7

By Melanie Kirkpatrick

Sept. 8, 2023 11:37 am ET

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and his younger sister, Kim Yo Jong, in 2016. PHOTO: KYODO NEWS/GETTY IMAGES

North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un made headlines in November when he was photographed with his young daughter at the launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile. The girl, whose existence hadn’t previously been confirmed, appeared to be about 10 years old and had her father’s signature chubby cheeks.

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The Sister: North Korea's Kim Yo Jong, the Most Dangerous Woman in the World

By Sung-Yoon Lee

PublicAffairs

304 pages

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Given his obesity and persistent rumors of his ill health, the Supreme Leader is probably wise to have a designated heir in mind. In any case, the intended message of the father-daughter missile outing was clear: The Kim family dynasty is here to stay. As the possible fourth generation of Kim despots, the little girl would follow in the footsteps of great-grandfather Kim Il Sung, grandfather Kim Jong Il and father Kim Jong Un.

Sung-Yoon Lee, a fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, has a different take. In “The Sister,” he makes a persuasive case that, should the position become vacant, there is a stronger contender for the job of North Korea’s first “despotess.” The woman he has in mind is Kim Yo Jong, the skinnier, savvier, scarier younger sister of Kim Jong Un. Just how scary? Last year she threatened a nuclear attack on South Korea. “The Sister” chronicles Ms. Kim’s rise to power as her brother’s de facto deputy, chief foreign-policy adviser and closest confidant. It is a riveting read.

North Korea is a closed society, where reliable information is next to impossible to obtain. In researching Ms. Kim and her leading role in her brother’s inner circle, Mr. Lee has performed a remarkable feat. The portrait he paints is taken from official North Korean statements, defector accounts, video recordings of Ms. Kim’s public appearances, and the author’s own knowledge and deep understanding of the North drawn from a career immersed in Korean studies. His engrossing depictions of the three generations of Kim dictators help to explain the formation of Ms. Kim’s character and outlook.

That said, “The Sister” is not a conventional biography. For starters, basic biographical facts are unavailable. These include Ms. Kim’s date of birth, which Mr. Lee puts at around 1987. Is she married? Does she have children? Alas, those are state secrets. In keeping with North Korea’s paranoia about divulging personal information about the ruling family, her name didn’t even appear in state media until 2014.

Kim Yo Jong attends a women's ice hockey game at the 2018 Winter Olympics in Gangneung, South Korea. PHOTO: RONALD MARTINEZ/GETTY IMAGES

It wasn’t until 2018 that the outside world began to pay serious attention to her, when she went on a charm offensive at the Winter Olympics in South Korea. Local onlookers, seeing a North Korean eminence show such friendly warmth in their country, were giddy with visions of peaceful unification. Moon Jae-In, the leftist then-president of South Korea, fawned over her as if she were a royal princess.

18 BOOKS WE READ THIS WEEK

The growing power of North Korea’s Kim Yo Jong, the mystery of Shakespeare’s life, a decade’s worth of thrilling crime stories and more.

And so she was—in the context of the Kims’ North Korea, where dictators have reigned as absolute monarchs. Growing up in pampered luxury, Ms. Kim was spoiled by parents who addressed her as “princess,” or “Princess Yo Jong,” according to Mr. Lee, who relies in part on the tell-all memoir of the family’s Japanese chef for details of Ms. Kim’s early life. She was taught to address adults by their first names, an unthinkable breach of protocol in a society where children are supposed to defer to their elders and a lesson to the child that she was above the rules.

Like her brother, Ms. Kim spent an unspecified number of years at a Swiss boarding school. Back home, a special class of 50 students was designed especially for her at Kim Il Sung University, where it was said that she was good at computers—a detail Mr. Lee got from a high-ranking defector. Unusually for a North Korean, Ms. Kim speaks English, as confirmed to the author by a U.S. diplomat who caught her laughing at a joke she overheard Americans making among themselves at a 2018 meeting.

At the South Korean Olympics, Ms. Kim previewed her skills at, in Mr. Lee’s words, “the art of summit performance.” She went on to stage-manage her brother’s 2018 meeting with President Moon, where Kim Jong Un underwent a public-relations makeover from an “eccentric, cruel dictator into an affable statesman,” as Mr. Lee puts it. She was at her brother’s side in Singapore later that year during the dictator’s failed meetings with President Trump, who, unlike Mr. Moon, wasn’t prepared to play the patsy to the Kim siblings.

Ms. Kim has a gift for propaganda, Mr. Lee says, deploying words with her “characteristic mix of sardonic wit charged with sadism.” President Moon is a “flunky beggar,” a “pro-U.S. lackey” and a “revolting traitor” who looks “mentally ill.” North Koreans who have escaped to the South are “human trash” and “mongrel dogs.” John Bolton, Mr. Trump’s national security adviser, is “human scum.” Ms. Kim’s invective—which is often racist, sexist or homophobic—provides “clues to her personality and ambition: to humiliate, deceive, and be taken seriously,” Mr. Lee writes.

“The Sister” is a chilling saga of the family dynasty that continues to oppress the North Korean people. It is replete with the sex, lies, ambition, betrayal and murders that characterize the Kim family’s style of governance. A family tree at the start of the book helps the English-language reader sort out the confusion of Kims and keep straight the wives, children, mistresses and in-laws of the leaders. If you’re unsure, say, whether the unfortunate relative whom Kim Jong Un ordered executed by firing squad was a half-brother or an uncle, the family tree will provide clarity. (It was his uncle. His half-brother was poisoned at Kuala Lumpur airport in 2017.)

Ms. Kim appears to have inherited the Kim dictators’ capacity for cruelty. She reportedly ordered the executions of several high-ranking officials for the “crime” of getting on her nerves and sent other offenders to possible death sentences in prison camps along with their families. Behind her back, according to Mr. Lee, she is called a “bloodthirsty demon” and “devil woman.” Her nickname is Empress Dowager Cixi, after the ruthless ruler of China during the late 19th and early 20th centuries.

As for Mr. Lee, he has many names for her, among them “her royal personage,” “haughty princess” and “co-dictator.” But his book’s subtitle says it best. Kim Yo Jong is “the most dangerous woman in the world.” After reading “The Sister,” I fear he’s right.

Those who would benefit most from reading “The Sister” are the 25 million citizens of North Korea, who are taught to worship the Kim family but know next to nothing about it. Here’s a subversive thought: One of the radio stations that broadcasts into the North—Voice of America, perhaps, or an escapee-run station in Seoul—could broadcast excerpts from the book. If North Koreans knew the truth about the family that has oppressed them for 70 years, who knows what they might be inspired to accomplish.

Ms. Kirkpatrick, a former deputy editor of the Journal’s editorial page, is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute.

Appeared in the September 9, 2023, print edition.

2. Ex-US intelligence officer for North Korea points to growing concern on nuclear threat toward South

Sydney Seiler's exit interview as the National Intelligence Officer for Korea.

Read the last part of the interview. It is one reason why we need to take a human rights upfront approach. As outsiders wwe just cannot comprehend the many forms of suffering that takes place on the Korean peninsula.

Ex-US intelligence officer for North Korea points to growing concern on nuclear threat toward South

AP · by ELLEN KNICKMEYER · September 8, 2023

WASHINGTON (AP) — The founder of North Korea’s ruling dynasty, an isolationist totalitarian leader named Kim Il Sung, was still building some of the country’s first nuclear facilities when Syd Seiler arrived on the Korean Peninsula as a young U.S. military intelligence officer.

Over the four decades since, Seiler has watched closely as Kim, his son and now his grandson have clung to their nuclear program and developed the potential to lob nuclear warheads at the U.S. and its allies if they choose.

Now Seiler is freshly retired after decades of advising presidents, military commanders and diplomats, making reported secret trips to North Korea and serving as a lead negotiator on talks to contain its nuclear program. And he has a parting message to American leaders: Don’t be discouraged.

North Korea’s fiery rounds of missile test launches are no reason to give up on the international sanctions and pressure, or to simply accept that the ruling Kim family is now a nuclear-armed power, Seiler told The Associated Press this week.

“That’s a failure of deterrence?” he asked, rhetorically. “That’s nonsense. We’re deterring an attack.”

Seiler helped shape the U.S. policy of deterrence, diplomacy and international pressure to deal with the nuclear threat. Following are some of his conclusions, drawing on his decades of experience before retiring this summer as the U.S. national intelligence officer for North Korea:

NORTH KOREAN LOGIC

Seiler sees a strategy and a rhythm to the single-minded nuclear and missile expansion, the rounds of U.S. and South Korean military exercises and North Korean test launches, and the blustery threats, as when the government of Kim Jong Un — grandson of the founding ruler — threatens a “deluge of fire” on neighboring South Korea.

But the Kim family’s worry is not so much about an attack from outside, Seiler argues. He said in sticking to the nuclear program even at the expense of North Korea’s economy, Kim Jong Un has taken a lesson from deposed Romanian dictator Nicolae Ceausescu. A firing squad abruptly ended the communist leader’s rule in 1989 when his people rose up against him.

Having cut North Koreans off from most contact with the outside world, Kim Jong Un, his father and his grandfather before him have seen their regime’s survival as lying in convincing their people the country is a worker’s paradise under threat from the outside world, and only the Kim family and its nuclear weapons can protect them, the former intelligence officer said.

Actions prioritizing the nuclear program over the feeding of your people seem irrational, Seiler said. “But in terms of the logic of North Korea, they make sense.”

RUSSIA TIES

U.S. officials have said Kim Jong Un may travel to Russia this month for a meeting with President Vladimir Putin, who they say is looking to North Korea to supply ammunition for Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Kim “probably sees in this meeting an opportunity to join hands with a like-minded fellow anti-U.S. leader,” Seiler said.

Worrisome possible outcomes include Russia helping North Korea beef up “its pretty antiquated ... museum-ready” conventional forces or its weapons of mass destruction, Seiler said.

“And of course, the worst-case scenario is that Kim Jong Un is watching a leader seeking to ... achieve strategic objectives through the use of force,” Seiler said, referring to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

“And suddenly whether Kim, either directly signaled or indirectly signaled by the new relationship with Vladimir Putin, sees a flashing yellow light or green light to engage in similar military actions against” enemy South Korea, he said.

“That would be the worst-of-all fears scenarios,” he said.

But that’s much less likely, he said. “I don’t think what Russia wants to do is to seek a relationship with North Korea in any way that significantly leads to instability in the region.”

THREAT TO SOUTH KOREA

Even this year, one U.S. intelligence assessment has been that Kim Jong Un would continue to be a bellicose neighbor for South Korea and an unpleasant member of the global community — but was unlikely to actually wage nuclear war at least through 2030.

But Seiler and others see growing reasons to worry now about what Kim may have planned for South Korea, its democratically governed and U.S.-allied neighbor.

As Kim expands and improves his nuclear arsenal beyond what he would need for deterrence, he has sharpened his threats toward the south in the past 1 1/2 years while honing ballistic missiles capable of reaching the U.S., South Korea’s protector, Seiler noted.

“North Korea was clearly developing capabilities that would enhance its position vis-à-vis South Korea. And so going forward, this is where the room for concern is,” Seiler said.

Coupled with growing domestic debate in South Korea about how much the country should rely on the United States’ protection, there’s “kind of an awakening of a North Korea threat that, frankly, we should have caught on to a couple of decades ago,” he said.

Denial or wishful thinking may have led some in the West to overlook the implications of the growing threat for a time, he said, although the intelligence community was well aware.

Meanwhile, Putin is battling in Ukraine to reclaim what he maintains is Russia’s historical territory, and the U.S. and its allies are paying growing attention to China’s stated openness to reclaiming Taiwan by force if need be.

It’s all “helped create an environment where this issue of what Kim Jong Un might choose to do in the use of force domain, backed by his nuclear weapons, is a greater subject of debate than it was even a year ago,” Seiler noted.

How strong is that risk right now?

“Well, I think right now Kim is deterred,” Seiler said.

‘I WAS BROUGHT TO TEARS’

Among his experiences in North Korea that stood out, Seiler pointed to watching a landmark 1983 Korean television show. Unscripted, the show turned into an emotional, marathon, 453-hour live broadcast that reunited Korean families divided under Japanese colonization or during World War II and the Korean War.

For Koreans, the broadcast laid bare the heartache of separated families in the Cold War. It led to what would be sporadic and brief North-South reunions across the rigidly divided Korean Peninsula.

“‘I grew up here. I lost my sister there. My little sister had a birthmark there,’'' Seiler said, recounting those who called in to the show. ”And someone would call in and say, ‘Hey, are you so-and-so?”’

“I was brought to tears by it,” Seiler said. For an outsider, it made clear the lasting human costs of the barriers that the North had erected against the South.

“But it’s also a reminder,” Seiler said. “We can never let the humanitarian dimensions of this issue fall off the table.”

___

Follow the AP’s coverage of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at https://apnews.com/hub/kim-jong-un.

AP · by ELLEN KNICKMEYER · September 8, 2023

3. The Perils of a Renewed North Korea-Russia Relationship

The US government is again (effectively in my opinion) using intelligence to support information operations to attack adversary strategy and undermine legitimacy (or at least reduce shock and surprise).

Recognize the strategy, understand it, EXPOSE it, and attack it with superior political warfare.

We should be careful however, As Dr. Bruce Bwechtol has noted, Putin and Kim do not need to meet to conduct these 'trades." If the premature exposure fo the meeting causes it not to take place we should not conclude that the deal was not done.

Excerpts:

The U.S. government took the unusual step of confirming speculations of a North Korea-Russia summit in apparent hopes that shining a spotlight would generate pressure on both sides that might contain and deter North Korean-Russian cooperation. U.S. officials claim that past efforts to do so have been an effective deterrent, while the rest of the world could regard a Kim-Putin meeting as a summit between two lonely and isolated leaders.

But a North Korea-Russia summit could clearly signal a new level of strategic cooperation based on their perceptions of mutual benefit that has eluded both sides since the end of the Cold War. Washington will continue to oppose such cooperation and discourage other powers, especially Beijing, from enhancing support for either Pyongyang or Moscow. The United States’ aim will be to prevent North Korea from being further emboldened and to block Russian efforts to sustain its capacity to wage war in Ukraine.

The Perils of a Renewed North Korea-Russia Relationship

cfr.org · by Scott A. Snyder

Warming relations between the two pariah states could foster a mutually beneficial weapons and technology trade and raise tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

How have North Korea-Russia relations evolved in recent years?

Until Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the North Korea-Russia relationship was characterized by narrow transactionalism and diplomatic misconnects despite the legacy of close relations that existed between North Korea and the Soviet Union through the 1970s.

In 2015, Vladimir Putin invited Kim Jong Un to Russia’s commemoration of the seventieth anniversary of the end of World War II, but Kim was not yet ready to engage in summitry at that time. Russia also backed UN Security Council (UNSC) sanctions against North Korea through 2017 and failed to make headway in identifying mutually beneficial areas of economic cooperation. The 2019 summit between Kim and Putin, held months after the failure of the Hanoi summit between Kim and former U.S. President Donald Trump, resulted in Putin’s solo media briefing on the meeting, reflecting the failure of the two sides to find compatibility in their respective interests.

Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine has provided a basis for the convergence of political needs and material interests between the two countries. North Korea has provided political support to Russia by recognizing the independence of Russia-installed governments in breakaway provinces in Ukraine under Moscow’s control. Russian political support for North Korea provides the latter with protection and impunity from further UNSC condemnation for long-range missile and satellite launches that contravene UNSC resolutions.

What is North Korea’s capacity to aid the Russian war effort in Ukraine?

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North Korea offers significant weapons stockpiles and a possible base for future weapons production, but that would be limited by low North Korean plant efficiency and procurement capacity. Thus, North Korea’s most immediate contributions to Russia will be from stockpiles of old artillery and rocket systems that remain functional and deadly but lack modern guidance systems.

Kim Jong Un’s tours of military production facilities following the Russian defense minister’s recent visit could signal a North Korean desire to become a manufacturing base for sourcing weapons to Russia. In turn, North Korean requests for support from Russia will be wide-ranging and include assistance in the procurement and deployment of advanced missile and satellite technologies, as well as food assistance and requests for other items deemed critical to support Kim’s leadership. But it remains to be seen whether both sides can deliver the levels and types of military support to each other that is commensurate with their respective expectations.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin shake hands during a bilateral meeting. Sergei Ilnitsky/Pool/Reuters

How would expanded ties with Russia affect dynamics on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia?

The renewal of the North Korea-Russia military relationship will restore two-way procurements of military goods, including technologies that the North Korean military has long desired but been starved of for decades due to Chinese and Russian adherence to international sanctions. These include items such as upgraded aircraft and advanced weapons systems.

In this respect, the Western sanctions imposed on Russia because of its invasion of Ukraine have unintentionally expanded and enabled North Korea’s prospects for accessing critical military support from abroad. In addition, North Korea signaled the geopolitical significance of closer China-North Korea-Russia relations by hosting both Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee Member Li Hongzhong in late July on the seventieth anniversary of the signing of the Korean armistice, which North Korea marks internally as “Victory Day.” The reported possibility of North Korea joining regular China-Russia military exercises would mark an additional step forward for this coalition.

The China-North Korea-Russia coalition remains less cohesive than the depth of coordination signaled by the United States, Japan, and South Korea at Camp David in August. However, the emergence of opposing coalitions (but not yet blocs) in Northeast Asia deepens inter-Korean and regional tensions in Northeast Asia. Stronger North Korea-Russia relations partially alleviate North Korea’s political isolation, enhances Kim Jong Un’s domestic political legitimacy, and emboldens North Korea to pursue its missile and satellite development with impunity. The symbolism behind Kim’s expected return to summitry with Putin in 2023 suggests Kim intends to navigate North Korean diplomacy in a geopolitical context of rising confrontation, rather than the climate of tension reduction that existed during his summitry in 2018 and 2019 — though with the same aims of enhancing North Korea’s legitimacy and international standing.

How would you expect the United States and its regional allies to respond?

The U.S. government took the unusual step of confirming speculations of a North Korea-Russia summit in apparent hopes that shining a spotlight would generate pressure on both sides that might contain and deter North Korean-Russian cooperation. U.S. officials claim that past efforts to do so have been an effective deterrent, while the rest of the world could regard a Kim-Putin meeting as a summit between two lonely and isolated leaders.

But a North Korea-Russia summit could clearly signal a new level of strategic cooperation based on their perceptions of mutual benefit that has eluded both sides since the end of the Cold War. Washington will continue to oppose such cooperation and discourage other powers, especially Beijing, from enhancing support for either Pyongyang or Moscow. The United States’ aim will be to prevent North Korea from being further emboldened and to block Russian efforts to sustain its capacity to wage war in Ukraine.

cfr.org · by Scott A. Snyder

4. China, North Korea pursue new targets while honing cyber capabilities

Reports at these links:

https://query.prod.cms.rt.microsoft.com/cms/api/am/binary/RW1aFyW

https://query.prod.cms.rt.microsoft.com/cms/api/am/binary/RW14Gtw

Excerpts:

The report also looks toward anticipated future actions from China and North Korea in the months ahead, as increasing geopolitical tensions fuel new threat priorities and adversarial strategies. With upcoming elections in 2024, Taiwan and the United States are likely to remain top priorities for China.

No technology platform, including Microsoft’s, is perfect. But as nation-state actors continue to target vulnerabilities and deploy malign narratives across the world, we believe it is vital to continue to share intelligence such as this report and to increase cross-industry collaboration on these important issues.

China, North Korea pursue new targets while honing cyber capabilities

https://blogs.microsoft.com/on-the-issues/2023/09/07/digital-threats-cyberattacks-east-asia-china-north-korea/

Sep 7, 2023 | Clint Watts - General Manager, Microsoft Threat Analysis Center

In the past year, China has honed a new capability to automatically generate images it can use for influence operations meant to mimic U.S. voters across the political spectrum and create controversy along racial, economic, and ideological lines. This new capability is powered by artificial intelligence that attempts to create high-quality content that could go viral across social networks in the U.S. and other democracies. These images are most likely created by something called diffusion-powered image generators that use AI to not only create compelling images but also learn to improve them over time.

Today, the Microsoft Threat Analysis Center (MTAC) is issuing Sophistication, scope, and scale: Digital threats from East Asia increase in breadth and effectiveness, as part of an ongoing series of reports on the threat posed by influence operations and cyber activity, identifying specific sectors and regions at heightened risk.

We have observed China-affiliated actors leveraging AI-generated visual media in a broad campaign that largely focuses on politically divisive topics, such as gun violence, and denigrating U.S. political figures and symbols. This technology produces more eye-catching content than the awkward digital drawings and stock photo collages used in previous campaigns. We can expect China to continue to hone this technology over time, though it remains to be seen how and when it will deploy it at scale.

As Microsoft noted in our recent report Governing AI: A Blueprint for the Future, public- and private-sector institutions need to collectively address the weaponization of technology, including AI, by cyber and influence threat actors. We report on digital threats we detect – including the use of AI – to inform policymakers, security practitioners, and the public about any threats, current or emerging, that new technologies may pose to information integrity and democracy. We will continue to share our knowledge, and call on partners to do so as well, as part of our larger blueprint to promote transparency and guide the governance of AI.

In its cyber operations, multiple Chinese state-affiliated threat actors have focused cyberattacks in the South China Sea region, conducting intelligence collection and malware execution against regional governments and industries. Other actors have targeted the U.S. defense industry and U.S. infrastructure, looking for competitive advantages to bolster strategic military aims.

Beginning in May 2023, Storm-0558, a China-based threat actor, accessed Microsoft customer email accounts of approximately 25 organizations including U.S. and European government entities. Microsoft assesses this activity was likely conducted for espionage purposes and has successfully blocked this campaign.

The report also details how China has continued its global efforts to spread state-sponsored propaganda and soften the country’s image abroad. The Chinese government is investing resources in messaging to audiences in more languages, on more platforms, while evolving its techniques. For example, we know China employs more than 230 state media employees and affiliates who masquerade as independent social media influencers across all major Western social media platforms.

These influencers, who are recruited, trained, promoted, and funded by China Radio International (CRI) and other Chinese state media outfits, expertly spread localized CCP propaganda that achieves meaningful engagement with audiences around the world, reaching a combined following of at least 103 million people across multiple platforms speaking at least 40 languages.

While China-based threat groups continue to develop and utilize impressive cyber capabilities and IO operations, we have not observed China to combine cyber and influence together – unlike Iran and Russia, which regularly engage in hack-and-leak campaigns.

In addition to what we’ve observed from China, North Korea is a capable cyber threat, focusing on intelligence gathering and the theft of cryptocurrency needed to generate revenue for the state. Several of North Korea’s threat actors have targeted the maritime and shipbuilding sectors, suggesting this as a high-priority area for the North Korean government. Additionally, multiple North Korean threat actors have recently targeted the Russian government and defense industry – likely for intelligence collection – while simultaneously providing material support for Russia in its war on Ukraine.

The report also looks toward anticipated future actions from China and North Korea in the months ahead, as increasing geopolitical tensions fuel new threat priorities and adversarial strategies. With upcoming elections in 2024, Taiwan and the United States are likely to remain top priorities for China.

No technology platform, including Microsoft’s, is perfect. But as nation-state actors continue to target vulnerabilities and deploy malign narratives across the world, we believe it is vital to continue to share intelligence such as this report and to increase cross-industry collaboration on these important issues.

Editor’s note: As a part of an ongoing series, today Microsoft published Sophistication, scope, and scale: Digital threats from East Asia increase in breadth and effectiveness. These semi-annual updates on nation-state actors serve to warn our customers and the global community of the threat posed by influence operations and cyber activity, identifying specific sectors and regions at heightened risk. See our previous reporting on Russia and Iran.

Tags: cyberattacks, cybersecurity, cyberwar, Digital Threat Analysis Center, MTAC, Ukraine

5. Sinpho South Shipyard: New Submarine Makes Debut, but With Many Questions To Be Answered

Yes, we all have many questions. Imagery at the link below for the "squints" to enjoy.

Sinpho South Shipyard: New Submarine Makes Debut, but With Many Questions To Be Answered

https://www.38north.org/2023/09/sinpho-south-shipyard-new-submarine-makes-debut-but-with-many-questions-to-be-answered/

BY: PETER MAKOWSKY AND JACK LIU
SEPTEMBER 8, 2023

Commercial satellite imagery of the Sinpho South Shipyard from September 6 captured the celebration activities both before and after the launching of North Korea’s new ballistic missile submarine (SSB). Imagery from the following day revealed puzzling activity as the study of the submarine’s capabilities continues.

North Korean media coverage of the launch and christening of the new submarine was extensive, including Kim Jong Un’s arrival at Sinpho to preside over the festivities. The new submarine was christened by Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui, the “Hero Kim Kun Ok” with the unit number 841. While some features of the new submarine, such as the stern’s propulsion system, were blurred in videos and photos from the event, several new features were revealed. This includes the submarine’s missile bay containing ten missile tube hatches, set in pairs, with the foreword four being larger in diameter than the aft six, indicating the submarine will be fitted with a mix of weapon systems. Further analysis is ongoing.

The Hero Kim Kun Ok appears to be the anticipated “Sinpo-C SSB” seen in photos in July 2019, when Kim Jong Un last visited the shipyard, but with some significant differences. Moreover, during this launching ceremony, Kim described the submarine as a “tactical nuclear attack submarine,” a description which may be slightly misleading as the vessel is diesel powered, although its armaments may be nuclear capable.

Figure 1. Overview of Sinpho South Shipyard. Image Pleiades NEO © Airbus DS 2023. For media options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.

Pre-ceremonial Coverage

A fortuitous satellite image from September 6 captured the moment prior to the launching celebration’s beginning. At the shipyard, the new submarine had been rolled out of the older of the two construction halls and positioned on an inclined marine railway. A large group of spectators were on the quay just north of the hall, and three fast boats—the larger has been confirmed by video as the vessel that brought Kim to the festivities, flanked by two torpedo boat escorts.

Figure 2. Hero Kim Kun Ok submarine rolled out of construction hall before launching ceremony captured on satellite imagery from September 6, 2023. Image Pleiades NEO © Airbus DS 2023. For media options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.

Expand

Figure 3c. Image of naval ceremony underway. (Source: Rodong Sinmun).

Figure 3a. Image of submarine captured on Korean Central Television broadcast. (Source: Korean Central Television).

Figure 3b. Image of submarine launching ceremony published in KCNA. (Source: Korean Central News Agency).

Figure 3c. Image of naval ceremony underway. (Source: Rodong Sinmun).

Figure 3a. Image of submarine captured on Korean Central Television broadcast. (Source: Korean Central Television).

Figure 3b. Image of submarine launching ceremony published in KCNA. (Source: Korean Central News Agency).

Figure 3c. Image of naval ceremony underway. (Source: Rodong Sinmun).

Figure 4. Kim Jong Un’s patrol boat and two escort patrol boats captured entering Sinpho South Shipyard pre-ceremony. Image Pleiades NEO © Airbus DS 2023. For media options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.

Ahead of the event, the submersible missile test barge had been moved from the secure boat basin to a sheltered basin south of the large pier that bounds the southern end of the shipyard. Typically, a floating dry dock is berthed at that pier, but it had been moved into the south boat basin. The experimental Sinpo-class SSB (the Gorae-class/Sinpo-class), however, remained beneath the protective awning in the secure boat basin.

Figure 5. Submersible missile test barge and floating drydock relocated to south basin on imagery from September 6, 2023. Image Pleiades NEO © Airbus DS 2023. For media options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.

In the imagery, most of the new submarine is visible, its bow being slightly blocked from view. The overall length is around 86 meters, including 9.3 meters of the bow under the hall entrance. The length of the sail and vertical launch array is 22.4 meters, including the taper as it meets the deck. The beam at the sail is about 7.1 meters. The top of the sail section containing the missile tubes appears to be 3.5 meters wide. The Pukguksong family of missiles are between 1.5 to 1.8 meters in diameter, so it would appear that the four larger openings could accommodate a smaller-diameter missile of that class or a new, smaller-diameter missile. The latter six are intended to accommodate cruise missiles.

The submarine’s stern appears to be that of a ROMEO-class (R-class) submarine with twin shrouded screws on either side. For comparison, two R-Class are presently in the northeast drydock undergoing probable maintenance.

Figure 6. Two Romeo-class submarines in drydock on imagery from September 6, 2023, probably undergoing maintenance. Image Pleiades NEO © Airbus DS 2023. For media options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.

Based on these photos, this does not look the same as the submarine seen inside the hall on July 17, 2019, when Kim Jong Un inspected the ongoing modifications of an R-Class submarine. In photos from that visit, the missile bay, located immediately behind the sail, was blurred to disguise its configuration. The shrouded screws were visible, but the limber holes along the base of the boat’s sail appeared slightly different than the newly launched submarine, and there were no dive planes on the sail nor openings for their placement at the time. While a 2019 report, “Two Halls Enter—One Sub Leaves,” made the case for which hall Kim visited at that time—what would be the same one from which this new submarine was launched—the differences between what was shown then vs. now are notable. This has analysts questioning whether this is the same boat, as seen previously, that has undergone further and extensive modifications.

Post-ceremonial Coverage

A second satellite image was taken post-launch activities on September 6. In that image, all personnel present for the celebration had departed, and unit 841 remained at the pier, but with a mobile crane now parked on the pier next to the boat’s midsection. Just 24 hours later, on September 7, in a puzzling occurrence, the submersible ballistic missile test barge had been moved from the south protected basin and was nested outboard of the newly launched submarine. The purpose of this movement is unknown, but following a brief final fitting out, the submarine could begin sea trials.

Figure 7. Submersible missile test barge moved and nested outboard of the new submarine after the ceremony. Image © 2023 Planet Labs, PBC cc-by-nc-sa 4.0. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.

6. Japan and South Korea’s rapprochement is shakier than it looks

I remain bullish on the relationship despite "Moriarty's negative waves." (ref: Kelly's Heroes)

But Moon Chung-in and his political allies will be a problem. Moon Chung-in is no friend of the ROK/US alliance regardless of how well he can speak English or what he says at conferences of Korea watchers.

I do agree with Dan Snieder that Japan is going to have to make a good faith effort.

Excerpts:

Much of South Korea’s left also opposes the country’s wider alignment with the US and Japan in opposition to the burgeoning axis of Moscow, Pyongyang and Beijing. “There is no reason for us to be antagonistic against China and Russia,” Moon Chung-in, a former senior adviser to President Moon, told the Financial Times.

...

But Sneider said if Japan really wanted the rapprochement to succeed, Kishida needed to offer the South Korean people a gesture of genuine compassion that went beyond the stale legal arguments and rigid formulations of regret upon which the Japanese leader continues to rely.

“My worry is if this all collapses, the Japanese will say: ‘We told you so, the Koreans are not reliable partners,’” said Sneider. “But on this occasion, it would be Japan’s fault.”

Japan and South Korea’s rapprochement is shakier than it looks

Tokyo may need to show genuine compassion over forced-labour issue to establish partnership with Seoul that lasts

Financial Times · by Christian Davies · September 7, 2023

For former US officials who recall years of gruelling diplomacy when Seoul and Tokyo were scarcely on speaking terms, last month’s Camp David summit must have felt like a minor miracle.

US president Joe Biden had managed to bring together Fumio Kishida of Japan and South Korean president Yoon Suk Yeol in one place, seemingly as allies. But whether the summit will prove as “historic” as the leaders claimed is open to question.

Biden pocketed a series of impressive gains in his campaign to bind Asian partners into his regional security agenda. But many of the initiatives it produced build only very modestly on past practices. Others simply offer new channels for discussion that may or may not yield meaningful results.

Aside from the prospect of a second Trump presidency, there is a further compelling reason for caution: the diplomatic rapprochement sealed by South Korea and Japan this year is far shakier than it looks.

“The idea that Camp David was the moment Japan and South Korea moved past their historical issues is a dangerous illusion,” said Daniel Sneider, a lecturer in east Asian studies at Stanford University.

For decades relations between the two countries have been dogged by controversies relating to Japan’s occupation of the Korean peninsula in the first half of the 20th century.

At the political level, the tides of co-operation have ebbed and flowed as the South Korean presidency passes back and forth between conservatives who have traditionally pursued a conciliatory line towards Tokyo and leftwingers rooted in a nationalist tradition that remains deeply sceptical of Japan’s intentions.

In 2018, relations collapsed after South Korea’s supreme court ordered two Japanese companies to pay Korean victims of Japanese wartime forced-labour practices.

Moon Jae-in, Yoon’s leftwing predecessor, promised not to intervene in the court cases, limiting diplomatic routes for resolving the dispute, while Tokyo insisted all claims related to its colonial occupation of the Korean peninsula were resolved by a 1965 treaty. The result was a five-year stand-off during which almost all co-operation ground to a halt.

After Yoon, a conservative former prosecutor, was elected last year, his administration sought to break the impasse by proposing that Japanese and South Korean companies pay into a private fund that could be used to compensate the forced-labour victims.

The proposal was sensible, but the talks failed after the Japanese government refused to allow its companies to pay into the joint fund. Instead South Korean companies alone would pay into the victims’ fund, while companies from both countries would pay ¥200mn ($1.4mn) into a pair of “future partnership” funds to collaborate in areas including youth exchanges, energy security and global supply chain issues.

Tokyo’s refusal to give an inch on Yoon’s proposal dismayed many South Koreans, including many beyond the old Japan-baiting left. But Yoon declared the issue resolved regardless, paving the way for a visit to Tokyo in March for the two countries’ first bilateral summit in 12 years.

For supporters in South Korea and the US, Yoon’s decision to brush aside the forced-labour issue served as a demonstration of vision and courage. But domestic critics accused him of having sold victims down the river. Opposition leader Lee Jae-myung, whom Yoon defeated by a margin of less than 1 per cent in last year’s election, has described Yoon’s meeting with Kishida in March as “the most shameful and disastrous moment in our country’s diplomatic history”.

Much of South Korea’s left also opposes the country’s wider alignment with the US and Japan in opposition to the burgeoning axis of Moscow, Pyongyang and Beijing. “There is no reason for us to be antagonistic against China and Russia,” Moon Chung-in, a former senior adviser to President Moon, told the Financial Times.

Even observers who want to see Yoon’s efforts succeed wonder if the unpopular gambit of an unpopular leader provides a sure enough foundation for lasting amity, a concern shared by Japanese officials.

Noting South Korean anxieties over the recent release of radioactive water from the Fukushima nuclear plant, Tokyo is hesitating to commit to concrete bilateral and trilateral initiatives ahead of South Korea’s parliamentary elections next year.

But Sneider said if Japan really wanted the rapprochement to succeed, Kishida needed to offer the South Korean people a gesture of genuine compassion that went beyond the stale legal arguments and rigid formulations of regret upon which the Japanese leader continues to rely.

“My worry is if this all collapses, the Japanese will say: ‘We told you so, the Koreans are not reliable partners,’” said Sneider. “But on this occasion, it would be Japan’s fault.”

christian.davies@ft.com

Financial Times · by Christian Davies · September 7, 2023

7. N. Korean leader attends paramilitary parade to mark key anniversary

Notice the photos at the link: https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20230908006853325?section=nk/nk

Are they simulating the Ukrainian tractors of the Ukrainian resistance? Are they trying to show that they will resist the "imperialist dogs" (note my sarcasm) of the ROK/US alliance like the Ukrainian resistance is resisting in Putin's War?

(3rd LD) N. Korean leader attends paramilitary parade to mark key anniversary | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Na-young · September 9, 2023

(ATTN: REPLACES photos)

By Lee Minji

SEOUL, Sept. 9 (Yonhap) -- North Korea staged a paramilitary parade in Pyongyang on Saturday to mark the 75th anniversary of the regime's founding day, with leader Kim Jong-un in attendance, the North's state media said.

Kim observed the military parade that took place "with splendor" at Kim Il Sung Square to celebrate the founding anniversary, according to the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). Kim did not deliver a speech at the event, which was also attended by his daughter, believed to be named Ju-ae.

Also present were a Chinese delegation, led by Vice Premier Liu Guozhong, and visiting members of a Russian army song and dance ensemble, the report added. Russia did not send a separate delegation this time.

This photo, carried by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on Sept. 9, 2023, shows the North's leader Kim Jong-un (R) and his daughter, believed to be named Ju-ae, attending a paramilitary parade in Pyongyang to mark the 75th anniversary of the regime's founding day. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

The nighttime event marks the third military parade North Korea has staged this year alone, with the latest one taking place in July on the occasion of the 70th anniversary of the signing of the 1950-53 Korean War armistice.

The parade came amid speculation that Kim may travel to Vladivostok to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin next week to discuss a possible arms deal.

A report of his possible trip to Russia spawns speculation that North Korea may provide artillery shells and other ammunition to Russia for use in Moscow's war with Ukraine in exchange for a weapons-related technology transfer from Russia, such as a spy satellite and a nuclear-powered submarine.

The North has been seeking to strengthen ties with China and Russia and double down on its weapons development in the wake of strengthening security cooperation among South Korea, the United States and Japan.

The latest paramilitary parade featured columns of motorcycles with high mobility and anti-tank missile launchers towed by tractors, according to the KCNA. The North apparently did not display its intercontinental ballistic missiles and other strategic weapons.

The parade was mostly led by the Worker-Peasant Red Guards, a civilian defense organization in the North consisting of around 5.7 million workers and farmers.

Meanwhile, the North's leader Kim greeted the delegation from Beijing and held talks in a "friendly" atmosphere where both sides agreed on "developing the friendly and cooperative relations between the two countries and further intensifying the multi-faceted coordination and cooperation," according to the KCNA.

This photo, carried by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on Sept. 9, 2023, shows a paramilitary parade in Pyongyang, held to mark the 75th anniversary of the regime's founding day. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

The North's state-run Korean Central Broadcasting Station said the leaders of Russia and China, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, have sent congratulatory messages to Kim on the occasion of the key anniversary.

Putin was quoted as saying he believes the North and Russia will expand bilateral cooperation in a strategic manner across all areas to contribute to safety and stability on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia, according to the radio network.

Xi reaffirmed the Chinese party and government's commitment to develop traditional friendly ties between Pyongyang and Beijing regardless of international and regional political circumstances, the state media said.

The military parade came as North Korea launched a newly built "tactical nuclear attack submarine" capable of carrying out an underwater nuclear attack, with leader Kim Jong-un vowing to "further strengthen the state nuclear deterrence."

mlee@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Na-young · September 9, 2023

8. DP leader questioned over illegal money transfers to N. Korea

(2nd LD) DP leader questioned over illegal money transfers to N. Korea | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Na-young · September 9, 2023

(ATTN: ADDS more info in paras 9-10, 12; CHANGES photo; RECASTS headline)

SEOUL, Sept. 9 (Yonhap) -- Opposition leader Lee Jae-myung appeared before prosecutors Saturday for questioning over allegations that he was involved in a company's alleged illegal money transfers to North Korea.

Lee, chairman of the main opposition Democratic Party (DP), showed up at the Suwon District Prosecutors Office in Suwon, 30 kilometers south of Seoul, at 10:18 a.m., marking his fifth appearance for prosecution questioning. He was last questioned on Aug. 17 over a separate case.

Lee Jae-myung, leader of the main opposition Democratic Party, speaks to reporters upon arrival at the Suwon District Prosecutors Office in Suwon, 30 kilometers south of Seoul, on Sept. 9, 2023, for questioning over allegations that he was involved in alleged illegal money transfers by Ssangbangwool Group, an underwear manufacturer, to North Korea. (Pool photo) (Yonhap)

Lee has been under investigation over a series of corruption allegations that he claims were fabricated.

The latest probe centers on allegations that Ssangbangwool Group, an underwear manufacturer, unlawfully remitted US$8 million to North Korea between January 2019 and January 2020 on behalf of Gyeonggi Province.

Prosecutors suspect that $3 million was intended to facilitate Lee's planned visit to Pyongyang, while the remainder was meant for Gyeonggi's smart farm support program in North Korea.

Upon arriving at the prosecutors office, Lee told reporters that the truth cannot stay covered up forever, although the government may be able to fabricate the case using what he calls the "political prosecution."

He urged President Yoon Suk Yeol to apologize to the people for his acts of "destroying democracy" and "denying the sovereignty" of the people. He also called on the Cabinet members to resign en masse for a complete change of government affairs.

He then headed directly to the prosecution office without answering reporters' questions.

But Lee uploaded a written statement on social media shortly after his appearance for questioning, flatly denying the charges against him.

"I tried to do business with the North for humanitarian support and exchanges when I was Gyeonggi governor but did not provide, or ask to provide, money and goods to the North in violation of South Korean laws and the United Nations' sanctions," Lee said.

Lee Jae-myung, leader of the main opposition Democratic Party, arrives at the Suwon District Prosecutors Office in Suwon, 30 kilometers south of Seoul, on Sept. 9, 2023, for questioning over allegations that he was involved in alleged illegal money transfers by Ssangbangwool Group, an underwear manufacturer, to North Korea. (Pool photo) (Yonhap)

The questioning comes amid his indefinite hunger sit-in against the Yoon administration. He launched the strike on Aug. 31, calling on the president to apologize to the people for "destroying" their livelihoods and democracy, express opposition to Japan's release of radioactive water into the ocean and thoroughly shake up the Cabinet to improve state affairs.

The prosecution has medical staff and an ambulance on standby at its Suwon office in case the politician's health worsens due to his hunger strike.

The DP chairman was already indicted in two corruption cases in March.

He currently faces charges of breach of duty, bribery and other counts related to an apartment development project in the city of Seongnam, Gyeonggi Province.

He was also charged with third-party bribery over allegations that while serving as the head of Seongnam FC during his Seongnam mayorship, he secured 13.3 billion won in corporate donations for the football club from four companies in exchange for administrative favors between 2014 and 2016. Lee served as Seongnam mayor from 2010 to 2018.

nyway@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Na-young · September 9, 2023

9. Yoon, Biden meet on margins of G20 summit

Yoon, Biden meet on margins of G20 summit | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Haye-ah · September 9, 2023

By Lee Haye-ah

NEW DELHI, Sept. 9 (Yonhap) -- South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and U.S. President Joe Biden met briefly on the sidelines of the Group of 20 (G20) summit in New Delhi, just weeks after their trilateral summit with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in the U.S., Yoon's office said.

The two met in the leaders' lounge at the Bharat Mandapam convention center before the start of a G20 session, and Yoon thanked Biden again for his hospitality during the trilateral summit at the Camp David presidential retreat near Washington last month.

"I have used various opportunities to talk about how trilateral cooperation among South Korea, the U.S. and Japan will contribute to freedom, peace and prosperity in the world," Yoon was quoted as saying.

Biden thanked Yoon in return, saying the Camp David summit was very successful and rewarding in that the three leaders were able to get together for intimate discussions over an extended amount of time.

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol (R) and U.S. President Joe Biden (C) meet on the sidelines of a Group of 20 summit at the Bharat Mandapam convention center in New Delhi on Sept. 9, 2023, in this photo provided by Yoon's office. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

hague@yna.co.kr

(END)

Yoon arrives in India to attend G20 summit

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Haye-ah · September 9, 2023

10. Nuclear-powered submarines: A timely necessity for S. Korea

Keeping up with the "Joneses?" Australian and north Korea?

South Korea should not make this an issue. A nuclear powered submarine is going to be a huge waste of money on what will be a vanity project with no significant military game changer for the defense of the ROK.

Nuclear-powered submarines: A timely necessity for S. Korea

donga.com

Posted September. 09, 2023 08:14,

Updated September. 09, 2023 08:14

Nuclear-powered submarines: A timely necessity for S. Korea. September. 09, 2023 08:14. .

North Korea declared through its state media on Friday that it had successfully deployed its first "tactical nuclear attack submarine," capable of undersea attack operations. This submarine, their largest to date at an estimated 3,000 tons, boasts four large and six small launch tubes. Some experts speculate that these tubes could accommodate both submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) and tactical nuclear cruise missiles. South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff expressed doubts about the submarine's operational capabilities based on its exterior analysis.

The submarine's claimed capacity to carry tactical nuclear weapons remains unverified. It remained largely unseen since its initial partial display in 2019, with unconfirmed capabilities due to the absence of SLBM test firings. However, it suddenly reappeared for a launch ceremony, coinciding with a military parade marking the 75th anniversary of the regime’s founding. Many speculate that this unveiling aims to demonstrate military strength, possibly to secure nuclear-powered submarine technology from Russia, whose President is expected to visit Pyongyang next week. South Korean military authorities suggest this move may involve deception or overstatement of capabilities.

North Korea has explicitly stated its intent to accelerate the development of its nuclear capabilities in undersea warfare. Unlike land-based nuclear missiles, SLBMs or nuclear torpedoes can stealthily ambush their targets, potentially undermining South Korean defenses. The advancement of North Korea's nuclear capabilities could pose a massive threat, especially if they obtain nuclear-powered submarine technologies from Russia. Consequently, South Korea urgently needs to formulate emergency response plans.

South Korea has developed SLBMs and incorporated them into combat readiness. However, our capabilities are notably limited compared to North Korea's undersea warfare potential, backed by nuclear warheads. To address this disparity, South Korea has been striving to acquire nuclear-powered submarines with advanced underwater navigation capabilities. Although we possess submarine construction and small nuclear reactor development expertise, securing nuclear fuel has been a challenge. Attempts to circumvent the Republic of Korea-U.S. Atomic Energy Agreement, which bans military use of nuclear materials, have been consistently denied by the U.S.

In 2021, the U.S. entered the AUKUS agreement with Australia and the U.K. to supply nuclear-powered submarine technology. While this pact claims to be a unique exemption to non-proliferation rules, there may arise a need for the U.S. to grant South Korea access to this technology in the future to counter North Korean nuclear provocations, a global threat. We must pursue revisions to the Atomic Energy Agreement in the long run while swiftly exploring ways to secure nuclear fuel for our own development of nuclear-powered submarine technology.

한국어

donga.com

11. S. Korea deplores N. Korea's launch of nuclear attack submarine

S. Korea deplores N. Korea's launch of nuclear attack submarine | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · September 8, 2023

By Lee Minji

SEOUL, Sept. 8 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's unification ministry on Friday condemned North Korea's launch of a "tactical nuclear attack submarine," saying the North's "futile" attempt to build weapons would only undermine the country's livelihood affairs.

The ministry's response came shortly after North Korea's state media reported that the North's leader, Kim Jong-un, attended a launching ceremony for the new submarine capable of carrying out an underwater nuclear attack.

"It is deplorable that North Korea is adhering to a futile development of weapons and squandering its lacking resources while not paying attention to difficult livelihood affairs," Kim In-ae, the ministry's deputy spokesperson, told a press briefing.

Kim emphasized that the North's weapons development and threats are "meaningless," and will only weaken its security, amid a robust combined defense posture between South Korea and the United States, and the overwhelming capacity to respond by Seoul, Washington and Tokyo.

The North's announcement of the new submarine came as the recalcitrant regime is set to hold a paramilitary parade marking the 75th anniversary of regime establishment, which falls on Saturday.

The parade, which the North has often used to bolster internal unity, would be its third military parade this year, which is "very unusual," according to the ministry official.

This photo, provided by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on Sept. 8, 2023, shows North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (2nd from L) attending a ceremony on Sept. 6 to launch a newly built "tactical nuclear attack submarine." (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

mlee@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · September 8, 2023

12. Fans left confused after Wales welcomes Korea with Chinese characters

Photos at the link.

We all make cultural mistakes. Maybe the Welsh are upset that some used symbols of whales for Wales or grapes ("Welch") when welcoming a team from Wales (I do not know if that happened, just saying).

I do have a story. So back in 1994 some people came to Korea to brief the Korean Special Forces leadership on laser target designators that might be useful to designate north Korean TEL for air attack in wartime. The people who came were NOT from the 1st Special Forces Group. So before they came to Korea they had their briefing slides translated. They visited the Korean language instructor at Fort Liberty (then Bragg of course) and asked her to translate. She asked who they were for and was told they were for general officers and she asked their approximate ages. She said they are senior enough and ewell educated therefore she assumed that translating them using Hanja (Chinese) Characters versus Hangul (Korea) letters would demonstrate respect for their seniority. When the briefers presented the slides the young korean translator and the generals were all scratching their heads. Of course the Korean military does not use Hanjo for military terminology and no one could understand what was on the slides. The Korean language instructor was good at teaching Korean but she did not have a clue about military terminology. Fortunately that was long ago corrected. But it was very embarrassing at the time.

Friday

September 8, 2023

dictionary + A - A

Published: 08 Sep. 2023, 10:20

Fans left confused after Wales welcomes Korea with Chinese characters

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2023-09-08/sports/football/Fans-left-confused-after-Wales-welcomes-Korea-with-Chinese-characters/1865083

An illustration uploaded by the official Welsh @Cymru X account prominently features the Chinese word for ″Korea″ on a post welcoming the Korean national football team to Cardiff on Thursday. [SCREEN CAPTURE]

An official Welsh sport social media account came under fire Thursday after posting an illustration welcoming the Korean national football team to Wales that prominently featured Chinese characters instead of Korea's hangul.

In a post on X, formerly Twitter, from @Cymru — the Welsh name for Wales and the account that acts as a home for all Welsh national teams — Wales welcomed Korea to Cardiff with a link to the website where people could buy tickets for a Thursday friendly between the two teams.

The post also included a graphic illustration showing Korean and Welsh fans outside a restaurant with "Kimchi" written in the window, a large Korean Taeguki flag on the sign and "Korea" written in Chinese lettering in the Chinese style, rather than in Korea's hangul alphabet or the traditional hanja version of Chinese lettering sometimes used on Korean documents.

The use of Chinese, which faced immediate criticism from Korean fans, appears to not be an intentional decision by the Welsh account, but instead the real-life signage found on an actual restaurant in Cardiff. The restaurant, called Kimchi, serves Korean food, although the sign suggests it either predominantly caters to a Chinese-speaking audience or is operated by Chinese-speaking owners.

A Google Maps screenshot shows the Kimchi restaurant in Cardiff, Britain, depicted in a controversial illustration uploaded by the Welsh @Cymru account ahead of a friendly with Korea on Thursday. [SCREEN CAPTURE]

BY JIM BULLEY [jim.bulley@joongang.co.kr]

13. S. Korean nuclear envoy voices concerns over forced repatriation of NK defectors in meeting with UN rapporteur

Yes, China and north Korea must be called out for their human rights abuses. South Korea is definitely conducting a human rights upfront approach. The members of the Yoon administration appear to be in sync in words and action. Ambassador Kim will not shy away from exposing the human rights abuses despite the fact that he is the lead negotiator for denuclearization. Human rights and denuclearization are linked - Kim must deny the human rights of the Korean people in north Korea to remain in power and he denies their human rights as he prioritizes nuclear and missile development and support to the elite over the welfare of the Korean people. Human rights are not only a moral imperative, they are a national security issue. It is also a powerful message that the UN Rapporteur and the denuclearization negotiator are standing side by side, literally and figuratively, calling out north Korea and China for their human rights abuses.

S. Korean nuclear envoy voices concerns over forced repatriation of NK defectors in meeting with UN rapporteur

The Korea Times · September 7, 2023

South Korea's top nuclear envoy, Kim Gunn, right, poses with Elizabeth Salmon, the U.N. special rapporteur for North Korea's human rights, after having a meeting in Seoul, Thursday. Courtesy of Ministry of Foreign Affairs

South Korea's top nuclear envoy on Thursday met with the U.N. special rapporteur for North Korea's human rights issues to discuss the repatriation of defectors and other pending issues, Seoul's foreign ministry said Thursday.

During his meeting with Elizabeth Salmon, Kim Gunn expressed concerns that North Korean defectors may be forcibly repatriated to their home country amid reports that the secretive regime appears to be opening up its borders after years of stringent COVID-19 lockdown.

Echoing Kim's concerns, Salmon expressed her commitment to support the issue with continuing interest, the ministry said.

Separately, she also met Chun Young-hee, head of the ministry's Korean Peninsula Peace Regime Bureau, and exchanged views on the human rights problem in the North.

Salmon arrived in Seoul on Monday for a nine-day visit to meet with Seoul officials and North Korean defectors. It is her third trip to South Korea since assuming the post in July last year. (Yonhap)

The Korea Times · September 7, 2023

14. 3 minor natural earthquakes strike near N. Korea's nuclear test site

As I usually ask when I read these reports: Has north Korean nuclear testing caused a geological change that increases the likelihood of earthquakes in the area? Will there be a "big one?"

3 minor natural earthquakes strike near N. Korea's nuclear test site

The Korea Times · September 8, 2023

This photo, provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration, depicts the area where a 2.3 magnitude earthquake struck 43 km north-northwest of Kilju, North Mangyong Province, at 5:12 a.m., Sept. 8. Yonhap

Three minor earthquakes struck North Korea's northeastern county of Kilju, home to the country's nuclear testing site, but all of them were natural tremors, South Korea's state weather agency said Friday.

The first quake occurred about 38 kilometers north of Kilju at 3:29 a.m., while the second and third ones struck nearby areas at 4:01 a.m. and 5:12 a.m., respectively, with their magnitudes ranging between 2.1 and 2.3, according to the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA).

The KMA said all of them were natural quakes.

Kilju, home to the Punggye-ri nuclear test site where the North conducted all six of its nuclear tests, is prone to earthquakes.

Including Friday's, a total of 19 earthquakes with a magnitude of at least 2.0 happened in the region this year, accounting for more than a quarter of 71 quakes with a 2.0 magnitude or stronger that happened on and around the Korean Peninsula.

As a granite zone, Kilju's ground had originally been stable, but the repeated nuclear tests could have made it unstable, experts say. (Yonhap)

The Korea Times · September 8, 2023

15. [INTERVIEW] N. Korean defector keeps fingers crossed for daughter detained in China

China's actions are despicable and tragic.

[INTERVIEW] N. Korean defector keeps fingers crossed for daughter detained in China

The Korea Times · September 8, 2023

A North Korean defector, center, who asked to be identified only by her surname, Kim, attends a weekly rally near the Embassy of China in Seoul, Monday. Kim's daughter is detained in China and faces repatriation to North Korea as the border between the two countries reopened in August. Kim and other human rights activists urge China to stop deporting North Koreans escapees held there. Korea Times photo by Shim Hyun-chul

This article is the first in a two-part series about North Korean detainees in China who are at risk of being repatriated back to the North. ― ED.

Defector seeks help to get daughter back as China's repatriation of North Korean defectors looms

By Kang Hyun-kyung

A North Korean defector living in South Korea, who wished to be identified only by her surname, Kim, panicked when she heard that the border between North Korea and China had reopened.

On Aug. 26, North Korea said it would allow its citizens staying overseas ― mostly in China and Russia ― to return home and that they would be placed in quarantine for a week once they arrive in the North.

The announcement, issued by the State Emergency Epidemic Prevention Headquarters and released by the state media, signaled the reopening of the border more than three-and-a-half years after the COVID-driven border closure was introduced in January 2020.

The news is an ominous sign for a North Korean defector like Kim, who has a family member detained in China.

It is only a matter of time before her daughter, who was caught in a Chinese government crackdown on illegal aliens and has since been detained in a prison in China's northeastern region, is sent back to North Korea where she is sure to face severe punishment.

Kim said her heart sinks every time she thinks about the fate that awaits her daughter.

Torture, rape and starvation are some of the common experiences many North Korean escapees have gone through in the North's prison camps. Pregnant women have experienced forced abortions and beatings are just a part of life in the brutal camps.

"It feels like my heart is being torn apart," Kim, who lives in Gangwon Province, said during a recent interview with The Korea Times.

She did not provide further details about her identity, mindful of causing harm not only to her daughter held in China, but also to her son who still lives in the North.

Kim said her daughter crossed the border into China years ago to survive. Kim and her husband, who were left to care for their other children, were unable to feed them. Ironically, the choice her daughter made to survive has now put her in danger.

"She's a good girl and tried to help her family by making money in China," Kim said.

Her eyes welled up with tears as she described what had happened to the girl.

Kim's daughter was caught in April 2021.

"She and I talked over the phone that day. But when I called her again, she didn't answer. Feeling anxious, I called her again and again all night. But she didn't answer. That was when I realized something had gone wrong," she said.

Before she was caught, Kim's daughter worked as a waitress at a restaurant run by a South Korean couple in the northeastern part of China.

After a sleepless night, she heard from the female owner of the restaurant who called and said that her daughter had been arrested.

Kim was devastated.

She said she spent the last two years weeping, while praying to God for help. But her prayers were not answered. Her daughter now faces an uncertain future.

"I'm a helpless mom here and my daughter is out there crying for help. I feel guilty because there's nothing I can do to save my daughter who is at risk of repatriation," Kim said as she sobbed.

"I eat, but feel no taste. At night, I close my eyes to sleep, but end up staying up all night," she added.

Oh Chang-hwa, second from left, a human rights activist and founder of the North Korea Club established to help North Korean defectors, stages a rally along with other activists in central Seoul, Monday, to pressure China to stop sending North Korean defectors back to the North. The sign he holds calls on China to guarantee the human rights of North Korean defectors. Korea Times photo by Shim Hyun-chul

Like Kim's daughter, there are many other North Korean escapees detained in China. Their number has soared due to tight border controls triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. Some believe as many as 2,000 North Korean escapees have been detained in China.

However, some activists say that figure is exaggerated.

Seo Jae-pyong, president of the North Korean Defectors' Association, said the actual number of North Korean escapees detained in China stands at 200-300.

The estimates may vary. But one thing that is clear is that a humanitarian crisis is inevitable if China adheres to its decades-long practice of sending escapees back to North Korea.

China ratified the 1951 Refugee Convention and its 1967 Protocol, which call for the protection of refugees and legal assistance for them. However, in order to justify its brutal repatriation policy, China does not recognize North Korean defectors as refugees and treats them as undocumented aliens who illegally crossed the border for economic reasons.

Joel Atkinson, a professor at the Graduate School of International and Area Studies at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies in Seoul, said China has not been affected by outside criticism about its brutal repatriation policy and will continue to do so in the years to come.

"The Chinese government has what Koreans would call a 'thick face' (brazen-faced) ― it is largely unaffected by any criticism," he said. "Nothing is going to change its approach toward the North Koreans currently in detention."

Despite this, he said the international community should keep building pressure on China to play by the rules.

"Over the longer term, if Beijing pays a high reputational cost for its cooperation with North Korea, it will build pressure within China that the government is on the wrong track in its approach to human rights and relations with the world," Atkinson said.

Human rights activists have begun to gather in front of the Chinese Embassy in Seoul for weekly rallies to put pressure on China to stop repatriating North Korean defectors.

On Monday, Kim and dozens of activists held a news conference near the embassy. About half of the participants at the rally were North Korean defectors.

Holding up signs written in Korean, Chinese and English, they urged China to live up to its commitments as a signatory of international refugee conventions.

Oh Chang-hwa, a human rights activist and founder of the North Korea Club established to help North Korean defectors, urged China to free the North Korean detainees.

Oh said the vast majority of the North Korean detainees want to come to South Korea to live. He reminded China of its international duty as a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council and U.N. Human Rights Council to act responsibly.

He then urged China to recognize North Korean defectors as refugees and provide necessary help to which they are entitled.

Following his speech, a female pastor read Kim's letter pleading to China for mercy and to release her daughter.

"Please help us. I want to get my daughter back. I would like to hug her and tell her how sorry I am for all of the ordeals she has gone through because she went to China for our family," her letter read. "Repatriation means death. My daughter is desperate and waiting for help from the outside. Please help my daughter and set her free."

China has not responded to the weekly protests.

But Kim said she will continue to attend the rallies hoping to get her daughter back.

A passerby looks at activists holding a rally to call on China not to repatriate North Korean escapees detained in the country back to the North, near the Chinese embassy in Seoul, Monday. Korea Times photo by Shim Hyun-chul

The Korea Times · September 8, 2023

16. Vladimir Putin - Kim Jong Un Summit: A Partnership of Gangsters

Well, certainly Kim Jong Un leads a mafia-like criminal cult. And I think Putin is nothing but a gangster as well.

Vladimir Putin - Kim Jong Un Summit: A Partnership of Gangsters

19fortyfive.com · by Robert Kelly · September 6, 2023

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un will reportedly travel to Vladivostok this month to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin. The pair appears to be working toward an arms-for-technology deal that would see North Korea supply ammunition for the Russian military. In return, Russia would provide military technologies North Korea cannot develop itself — technologies likely related to Pyongyang’s nuclear missile program.

This is a fitting meeting for both leaders. Both govern effectively as gangsters. They rule in the mafia-style, relying heavily on family, friends, and other long-time associates. Both treat political opponents as competitors to be eliminated, frequently with great brutality to warn others against intrigue or deception. Both corrupt the institutions of their own country and the international institutions in which they operate. Both engage in rampant criminality — smuggling, trafficking, and fraud — to raise external funds. Both treat state resources as a personal slush fund.

North Korea is More a Mafia State than Russia

North Korea is further along this path than Russia, having been governed by one family since its inception. Kim Il Sung was its first leader. His son governed next, and now his grandson does. All the relevant politicking in Pyongyang is personalistic: who is up or down in the eyes of the elite, who is in favor or falls out of it. Analysts watch for who stands closest to the leadership in public appearances, and family members almost always play a role. Kim Jong Un’s sister, Kim Yo Jong, has emerged as a crucial regime personality, and his half-brother was considered enough of a threat to be murdered overseas by regime agents.

So rotted and ineffective are the formal institutions of North Korea — outside of the security services — that the country resembles a fiefdom more than a modern state.

Russia is not yet as bad, but it is sliding in this direction under Putin. After the death of Stalin, the Soviet Union was not governed in the personalistic style of North Korea. Rule was diffused through the oligarchy of the Politburo. This created something like institutions that stood apart from the individuals who held an office. For a brief period in the 1990s, Russia even had a genuine shot at democracy.

Putin, of course, snuffed that out. He brought back all the worst instincts of Russia’s autocratic tradition — the corruption, the court politics, the groupthink and isolation, the paranoia. His ruling network — the siloviki — resembles the expanded kinship elite at the top of North Korea. Like a good mobster, Putin now routinely has his opponents pushed out windows, just as Kim knocked off his brother-in-law.

A Politicized Mafioso State Becomes a Cult of Personality

When mixed with politics, this mafia style leads to a cult of personality. The traditional mafia do not wish to displace the state. Rather they wish to operate around it, or corrupt it if necessary. In the film The Godfather, Don Corleone’s hope was that his son, who stood outside the family business, could participate in politics as a “civilian.”

The elites of Russia and North Korea do not aspire to this. They mix gangsterism with politics, and the result is a cult of personality as the mafia don becomes the state’s permanent political leader.

This is most obvious in North Korea. While its original founders may have believed in Marxism-Leninism or Communism at the outset, Kim Il Sung quickly succumbed to the temptations of a personality cult. By the 1960s he was governing like a monarch, and statues of him were ubiquitous. The move to personalism elevated the role of family. Politics in North Korea became a dynastic struggle among Kim’s family and friends. By the 1970s, the North Korean monarchy began to act like a mafia-state, engaging in criminal enterprises to raise foreign currency it could not otherwise secure.

Putin has gone this direction too. He gradually eradicated Russian democracy. The country’s parties are now toothless. Elections are rigged. Putin has swapped the presidency and prime ministership to stay in power indefinitely and extended the duration of a presidential term to forestall elections. Corruption is endemic in the government.

Like will Recognize Like in Vladivostok

Putin and Kim govern in remarkably similar ways. They pretend to aspire to modernity but actually govern as feudal monarchs. They pretend to manage a country when, in fact, they corrupt and abuse it for narrow personal interests. They deal with opposition as inherently traitorous; opponents are murdered mafia-style. And they pretend to oversee an economy, when in fact they are pilfering it. Game will recognize game in Vladivostok.

Dr. Robert E. Kelly (@Robert_E_Kelly; RobertEdwinKelly.com) is a professor in the Department of Political Science at Pusan National University and 19FortyFive Contributing Editor.

19fortyfive.com · by Robert Kelly · September 6, 2023

17. China distances itself from North Korea-Russia ties: experts

Publicly for sure. But this will always be a threesome of convenience.

It will never match the strength and power of JAROKUS (Japa -ROK-US) because of the inherent weakness, distrust, and nature of the regimes in Beijing, Moscow, and Pyongyang.

China distances itself from North Korea-Russia ties: experts

The Korea Times · by 2023-09-08 09:20 | North Korea · September 7, 2023

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, center, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, left, and Vice Chairman Li Hongzhong of the standing committee of the China's National People's Congress, right, attend a military parade in Pyongyang, July 27, celebrated as "Victory Day," to mark the 70th anniversary of the 1953 Korean Armistice Agreement that halted fighting in the 1950-53 Korean War. AP-Yonhap

By Lee Hyo-jin

China will send a relatively low-profile delegation to North Korea to take part in the celebration of the nation's founding day later this week, in what appears to be an effort by Beijing to distance itself from rapidly improving ties between Pyongyang and Moscow, according to analysts, Thursday.

A Chinese delegation led by Liu Guozhong, vice premier of the State Council of China, will participate in the 75th anniversary celebration of North Korea's Foundation Day which falls on Sept. 9, according to the North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).

China is apparently sending a relatively lower-ranking official compared to a previous occasion, given that North Korea considers anniversaries marking multiples of five or 10 years as significant national holidays.

In 2018, a delegation team headed by Li Zhanshu, a member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China ― a third-ranked official ― attended the celebration event of the 70th anniversary of North Korea's founding day.

Diplomatic observers said that China's decision to send a lower-ranking official to its key ally for a major celebration event shows Beijing's caution against becoming too closely aligned with the North Korea-Russia partnership.

Pyongyang and Moscow have been boasting their improved ties based on military cooperation in recent months, with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un expected to travel to Vladivostok to attend the Eastern Economic Forum taking place Sept. 10 to 13 and possibly hold a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

"China, which has been increasing efforts to manage the intense rivalry with the United States, would want to avoid causing a direct confrontation with the U.S.," said Cho Han-bum, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute of National Unification.

N. Korea-Russia partnership may benefit both but will have limits: former intelligence officer

"Sending a lower-level delegation means that it is refraining from taking provocative actions that the U.S. would strongly dislike."

On the other hand, Russia may send a high-level delegation to North Korea for the founding day ceremony in order to boost the visibility of the rapidly improving bilateral ties, Cho said.

He anticipated that Russia's delegation could be headed by Putin's right-hand man Dmitri Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Russia's Security Council, while not ruling out the possibility of Putin's attendance at the ceremony.

Go Myong-hyun, a senior fellow of the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, also said that Beijing is trying to refrain from emphasizing its ties with North Korea and Russia too overtly.

"China is seeking to build stronger trilateral ties with North Korea and Russia, but at the same time, it feels the need to exercise a certain degree of 'speed control' in forging closer relations with its two neighbors," he said.

The envisioned visit by Liu Guozhong also suggests that China is seeking to strengthen bilateral relations based on economic cooperation, according to Yang Moo-jin, president of the University of North Korean Studies.

"Liu Guozhong is the former governor of Jilin province and has expertise in the economy," he said, explaining that China may be planning to expand economic ties with North Korea in the northeastern Dongbei border region.

South Korea's Ministry of Unification offered a similar view.

"Given that (Liu Guozhong) has a deep understanding of North Korean issues and is currently in charge of economic affairs, it appears that North Korea and China are focusing their ties on economic cooperation, while North Korea's engagement with Russia is more focused on military partnerships," a ministry official told reporters.

The official also said China may not fully welcome the deepening North Korea-Russia relations, which would spur stronger trilateral ties between South Korea, the U.S. and Japan, adding pressure to China.

The Korea Times · by 2023-09-08 09:20 | North Korea · September 7, 2023

18. Analysis | How the Nuclear Missile Threat from North Korea Keeps Growing

Seven key points we should keep in mind. Succinct and useful analysis here.

1. What is Kim working on?

2. Could Kim really hit the US?

3. How many nuclear devices does North Korea have?

4. Where does Kim’s military get its fissile material?

5. What other surprises might be out there?

6. How can the country afford all this?

7. Wasn’t Trump going to fix this?

Analysis | How the Nuclear Missile Threat from North Korea Keeps Growing

The Washington Post · by Jon Herskovitz | Bloomberg · September 8, 2023

Far from resuming disarmament talks with the US, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has been busy developing new weapons in defiance of international sanctions, including nuclear-capable missiles that could strike the US and its allies in Asia. The country launched a new submarine and has continued its ballistic missile tests this year — the 70th anniversary of the signing of the armistice that ended Korean War fighting — after firing off a record number in 2022. That’s despite agreeing in 2018 to work toward “complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.”

1. What is Kim working on?

An array of ballistic missiles designed to carry nuclear warheads to hit US allies South Korea and Japan, longer-range rockets that could strike American bases in Guam, as well as intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) designed to deliver an atomic strike to New York or Washington. Kim has also modernized his missile arsenal, steering away from the Soviet-era Scud variants that had been a staple toward rockets that rely heavily on domestic technology and can be manufactured despite sanctions. He’s also seeking to improve the technology to miniaturize warheads for strikes in the region and increase the power of warheads for an ICBM.

• Kim has rolled out new solid-fuel ballistic missiles that are easier to move, hide and fire than many liquid-fuel versions. He’s launched more than 90 since 2019, with the most powerful being an ICBM launched this year, the Hwasong-18, that could be stored in hardened silos underground or rolled out on a transporter to be quickly shot off. The other ICBMs it has tested are liquid-fueled, which make them vulnerable to attack before launch because it takes time to fill their engines with propellant while they sit on the pad.

• The bulk of the new rockets have been nuclear-capable, super-fast KN-23 missiles that can strike all of South Korea — and US forces stationed there — within a matter of minutes.

• North Korea tested a new, large-diameter, solid-propellant missile engine in December 2022. Apart from its use in an ICBM, North Korea could use the engine for intermediate-range missiles to strike Japan as well as hit US assets in places such as Guam.

• Priorities for 2023 appear to be to refine its Hwasong-17 — which weapons experts say is capable of carrying three nuclear bombs — and to increase the power of the solid-fuel ICBM. Kim has also said he’s seeking tactical nuclear weapons for strikes on battlefields.

• It has tested hypersonic missiles designed to deploy a high-speed glide vehicle that can carry a warhead and maneuver past interceptors.

• The country has also showed off what it said was a new delivery system to fire missiles off a train, making them harder for prying eyes to track.

• Among the weapons on display at the military parade in July were an array of new drones, which could prove invaluable along the border with South Korea, where each side positions hundreds of thousands of soldiers.

2. Could Kim really hit the US?

He appears to have acquired that capability after successfully testing an ICBM in November 2017, the Hwasong-15. The newer Hwasong-17 was displayed at a military parade in October 2020 to mark the 75th anniversary of the ruling Workers’ Party and again this year. It may have exploded shortly after launch in a failed test in mid-March 2022, but Pyongyang has claimed success in subsequent launches. Still, it’s unclear whether the country’s ICBMs could beat antimissile systems and are refined enough to strike their intended targets, as well as whether the warheads could survive reentry into the atmosphere.

3. How many nuclear devices does North Korea have?

At the low end, experts estimate that North Korea has assembled 40 to 50 nuclear warheads, the fewest among the nine nations with nuclear weapons. However, one estimate, from a 2021 study by the RAND Corp. and Asan Institute, put the number as high as 116. Another from the Seoul-based Korea Institute for Defense Analyses this year said North Korea is estimated to have about 80 to 90 warheads, adding it was looking to have between 100 to 300 over the long term. The country has conducted six atomic tests, with Kim responsible for the last four. The US, Japan and South Korea have all said another could come any time. The first detonation in 2006 measured less than one kiloton, leaving experts wondering whether it had been a partial failure. (A kiloton is equal to the force of 1,000 metric tons [1,102 tons] of TNT). In 2017, the most recent test, the estimated yield of 120 to 250 kilotons dwarfed the 15 to 20 kiloton US bombs that destroyed Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. North Korea probably has developed miniaturized nuclear devices to fit into its ballistic missile warheads, according to the assessment of “several” countries cited in a 2020 United Nations report.

4. Where does Kim’s military get its fissile material?

It has been self-sufficient for decades in fissile material, the main ingredient to create a nuclear chain reaction and explosion. The program today relies largely on enriched uranium and, according to weapons experts, produces enough annually for about six bombs. In addition, North Korea appeared in mid-2021 to have resumed plutonium-producing operations — another means of creating fissile material — at a nuclear reactor in its antiquated Yongbyon complex.

5. What other surprises might be out there?

North Korea may be working on ICBMs that carry multiple warheads and in-flight countermeasures to throw interceptors off the trail, according to Datayo, an open-source weapons research site. The state has steadily ramped up production of mobile launchers for ICBMs to make the launches harder to track and may be working on a system to fire them from reinforced silos. Kim has pushed to develop his fleet of submarines and in September held a launching ceremony for a new one it said was capable of tactical nuclear attacks.

6. How can the country afford all this?

The money needed is not huge in global terms. North Korea spends about $7 billion to $11 billion a year — around 20-30% of its economy — on its military, according to a US Defense Intelligence Agency assessment. That’s roughly equivalent to two days’ US military spending. Although international sanctions have hit the economy hard, North Korea evades some through methods such as clandestine transfers at sea of banned goods such as oil, and it generates cash by means that include hacking attacks and other cybercrimes. Thefts of cryptocurrency brought North Korea an estimated $1.7 billion in 2022 alone. Kim has also discreetly rekindled Cold War-era ties with Russia, which has resumed sending oil to North Korea for the first time since 2020, according to a UN report. That follows an earlier restart of grain shipments. While it’s impossible to know what is going in the other direction, both the US government and independent analysts have one main thesis: munitions from North Korea’s vast stockpiles to help with Russia’s war in Ukraine. At the military parade in July, Kim stood between Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Li Hongzhong, a member of the Communist Party of China’s 24-member Politburo.

7. Wasn’t Trump going to fix this?

Former President Donald Trump’s talks with Kim, beginning with Singapore in June 2018, turned the duo from insult-throwing enemies into dialogue partners. But their three meetings didn’t produce any noticeable change, and North Korea has become what three decades of diplomacy had tried to prevent — a state capable of developing, projecting and detonating atomic bombs. Kim has shown no interest in the President Joe Biden’s call for him to return to nuclear talks.

More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com

The Washington Post · by Jon Herskovitz | Bloomberg · September 8, 2023

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

Access NSS HERE

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