Greetings,
Our Annual Report compiled every January reviewing last year’s market and predictions for this year’s market is always longer with much more detail, numbers, and analysis than our monthly market reports. We hope you enjoy it and appreciate the detail and effort we put into this year’s report. If you have any questions or suggestions, just email us. We truly enjoy putting this together for you!
The Telluride regional market set a new record in 2021 with dollar volume of $1.42 billion. In 2020 the total amount of dollar sales was just over $1.16 billion. Until 2020, our best year was 2007 when sales totaled $760 million. The number of sales in 2021 was 944 compared to 814 sales in 2020. At the beginning of 2021 I had predicted a drop in the dollar amount of sales and the number of sales. My thinking then was that the inventory was so low at the end of 2020 that it would force sales to drop in 2021. However, I never anticipated how many sellers would jump into the market to grab these record sale prices. Some sellers in 2021 had only owned their properties for two or three years. Additionally, I think some sellers were aging out of our market and wanted to have a second home closer to their grandchildren. Of course some long time property owners in our region just wanted to take advantage of this historic hot market and cash out, and many of those sellers are not buying back in.
December 2021 sales were strong with 80 transactions totaling $159.25 million in dollar amount of sales. One off-market sale of three homes sold for $22 million setting a new all-time record mark for a residential transaction in the town of Telluride. Even with that sale, the number of single family homes sold in the town of Telluride in 2021 dropped 11% due to a lack of inventory. While total annual sales for 2021 were up over 2020 sales by 23%, the last five months of 2021 sales were all down as compared to 2020 sales. That indicates to me that the drastic reduction of inventory is finally dropping in both dollar amount of sales and number of sales. On December 31, 2021 there were only seven homes for sale in the town of Telluride. In the rural area of San Miguel County there were 106 residential lots of various sizes for sale at the end of 2020. At the end of 2021, there were only 58 lots for sale.
On December 31, 2021 there were 23 homes for sale combined in the town of Mountain Village and Telluride. For perspective, 83 homes sold in both towns in 2021. For the same period of time, 236 condominiums sold in both towns combined and at the first of this year only 31 condominiums were for sale. For all property categories excluding commercial, fractional and deed-restricted, there were only 204 listings for sale in San Miguel County on January 1st of this year. For more perspective, ten years ago in 2011 the end of the year total sales was $247.4 million with 383 sales. The number of listings still for sale in the MLS at the end of 2011 was 1,528. All I can say is the last ten years was better than the Great Recession was bad which lasted four years. Click here to see the inventory change from 2020 to 2021 in twelve different categories.
Since we’re reviewing real estate sales and trends in 2021, let’s take a look at some other interesting stats last year. Texas brought us $381,450,043 in sales in San Miguel County more than any other state. However, Colorado was a close second coming in at $339,893,647 in sales with Florida a distant third at $110,903,000. For the first time in fourteen years, Dallas beat out Austin and Houston for the number one city in Texas. Texas had five of the top ten cities in the U.S. for buyers of Telluride regional properties. We love the country of Texas! Click here for more info.
In 2021 there were 48 home sales in Mountain Village and 34 home sales in the town of Telluride. Only six of those sales were below $2 million and only eight above $8 million in Mountain Village and Telluride combined. With the cost of money so low for the last two years, less than half of buyers used a loan to buy their property. For the transactions at $8 million and up only 21% used a loan. READ MORE HERE.
Resort Report:
- Aspen closed over $4 billion again in 2021. But here’s the news that is just crazy. A Canadian bought the most expensive home in Aspen in 2021 for $72.5 million. Then a couple of months later bought the house next door for $44.5 million. I guess you can never have too many garages!
- Crested Butte had their highest sales volume ever in 2021 at just over $900 million. As of the first of this year, there was only one house listed under $1 million in the historic town of Crested Butte.
- Durango only had nine homes for sale, not counting those under contract or pending within their city limits as of January 1, 2022. The average price for a home in La Plata County in 2019 was $512,000. In 2021 it was $785,000.
- Incline Village had 29 homes that sold for more than $10 million in 2021 with the most expensive home closing at $47.5 million.
- In Jackson Hole, of the 47 homes available on January 1, 2022, only eight were below $8 million. Of the top ten listings in price, the least expensive is $13.95 million.
- In Steamboat/Routt County in July 2010, there were 815 single family homes for sale and approximately 600 multi-family units (mostly condos) for sale. By the end of December 2021, there were only 38 homes for sale and 21 multi-family units for sale in the entire county. The average price of a home in Yampa Valley (Routt County) is now about $1.5 million, up about 30% over 2020.
- In Breckenridge/Summit County, the average price for a single family home in 2021 was $1.9 million, 26% higher than 2020. Total volume in dollars was just under $3 billion for 2021.
- In Vail, the dollar amount of sales in 2021 was up 17% over 2020. But a startling stat and maybe a prediction for 2022 was that in December 2021 the number of sales was down 52% over December 2020. Total sales volume in dollars exceeded $4 billion for the year 2021 and for 2020 it was $3.49 billion.
Globally: The Calgary Real Estate Board had home sales in 2021 increase 45% over 2020. Total homes sales in Canada in 2021 increased 20% over 2020. Home prices in Wellington, New Zealand increased 29.2% in 2021 over 2020. As a comparison, home prices in the U.S. were up 16.9% in 2021 over 2020.
2021 Market Review and 2022 Predictions: (Please note: This is the hardest part 😊) For the Telluride market, I predict the total number of sales in 2022 between 650 to 750 transactions for San Miguel County. The number of sales for SMC in 2021 was 944. My prediction for the total dollar amount of sales for 2022 is between $900 million and $1 billion. You can laugh at me on December 31, 2022 to see how right or wrong I was.
National Perspective: I’ve consulted dozens of sources and experts from the National Association of REALTORS®, the National Association of Home Builders and numerous economists most of whom focus on all aspects of the real estate industry. Let’s take a look at home and multi-family supply. In 2016, there were 1.53 million active single-family homes, condos, and townhomes for sale according to St. Louis Federal Reserve. In December of 2021, there were 553,000 listings in those same categories, a 277% drop. Depending on which economists you ask, the U.S. is about five to six million homes under built. Some of the reasons why is that Covid-19 increased the desire for homeownership. Millennials are entering their peak home buying age so demand will be elevated for several years by them. Anti-development attitudes make it very tough to build. Supply-chain problems and the high prices they create prevent entry level homes from being built. In December, national builders said supply-chain issues as the main culprit behind a 2.3% month to month decrease in single family construction. With all of the above the most affordable homes in the United States are generally in the Sun-Belt states which generally have a lower tax burden and more job creation. Think of Texas, Alabama, Florida, and Arizona for affordable housing and lower taxes. Robert Dietz, senior vice president and chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders recently said construction costs are up 19% year over year. He said that he thinks supply-chain issues will ease, but the skilled labor shortage will grow. The construction industry needs to add 740,000 workers a year to account for industry growth and yearly retirements.
Top Twenty Fun Facts (mostly about the real estate industry) for the Tellugram Annual Review:
- George Seroka, the executive director of the Port of Los Angeles said recently that imports are at all-time highs, while U.S. exports have declined nearly 40% over the last three years in Los Angeles.
- A U.S. homeowner who bought a home ten years ago at the median sales price and sold it today at the median sales price would have about $200,000 in pure equity.
- Last year, for the first time ever, immigration of 256,869 exceeded births minus deaths of just 148,043. 2022 looks no better.
- Only 23% of U.S. adults use Twitter according to Pew Research.
- Bentley Motors is putting its brand on a luxury condominium project in Sunny Isles Beach, Florida called Bentley Residences.
- Nationwide in 2021, TSA officers confiscated 5,972 firearms at 268 different U.S. airports during routine X-ray screenings.
- A $44.5 million mansion that sold in Aspen in 2021 has a secret bedroom and passage way for the original owner’s mistress.
- Vail Resorts says that skier visits are down 18.3% through mid-January 2022 as compared to the 2019-2020 ski season.
- AIG and Chubb are pulling back on insuring multi-million dollar homes in California due to wildfire exposure and changes in state insurance regulations.
- There are approximately 89,000 real estate brokerages in the U.S., half of which have a 60+ year old owner with four agents. Most have no succession plan.
- Owning a medium priced, three-bedroom home is more affordable that renting an equivalent property in 58% of the 1,154 counties in the U.S.
- The world atomic clock at the University of Colorado in Boulder is so accurate that it will not lose a second over 15 billion years.
- The most expensive ‘home’ currently listed in the U.S. is $295 million, 105,000 square feet and located in the Bel Air neighborhood of Los Angeles.
- Nationally, companies are setting aside an average of 3.9% of total payroll for wage increases in 2022, the largest increase since 2008.
- Florida does not have a state income tax and is a big draw for workers and retirees. One can generally find a nice three-bedroom house in Ocala for about $240,000.
- The forecast for interest rates by the end of 2022 is about 3.7%, roughly the same rate average in 2019.
- Romania has the highest rate of home ownership in the world at 96.4%. The United States is not even in the top ten countries.
- A group of U.S. top economists project home prices in the U.S. to increase about 5.7%, about one-third of price increases in 2021.
- Property insurance has increased 21% in Colorado from 2017 to 2020, the highest in the nation, just ahead of California increase at 18% for the same time period.
- The number of U.S. citizens out of work in early January because they were Covid sick or caring for someone who was Covid sick was 8.8 million according to the Census Bureau.
Real Estate Question of the Month: May a listing broker or a selling broker give a discount to their client after the sales commission has been agreed to?
Answer: Maybe. Every brokerage in the state of Colorado must have a company office policy manual. The managing broker or owner generally must approve any discounts because those fees are income to the company and the broker. Lastly, just like plumbers and electricians, not everyone discounts. Suggestion: concentrate on value…not price.
Quoted in the Press: We are most grateful for having our market information quoted in the Wall Street Journal, the Denver Post, the Colorado Sun newspaper, the Telluride Daily Planet, The Aspen Times newspaper and numerous other local newspapers all across Colorado. Thank you!
As always, thank you for taking time to read the Tellugram. If you have any questions as a seller, buyer or just curious reader, we’ll do our best to give you a straight forward answer. Contact us at George@TheHarveyTeam.net or on George’s cell phone number 970-729-0111.
"Never get so busy making a Living that you forget to make a Life" – Unknown
Best to you and your family in the New Year!
George Harvey, Jr.
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RECOMMENDED BUSINESS
TRAVEL TO TELLURIDE
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TRAIL MAPS
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for the most accurate events in Telluride.
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Comparative Sales Report -
(From Telluride Consulting)
Volume in Millions = $159.25...Down 1%
Number Sold =80... Down 20%
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Showcase Property
Williams Ranch
Norwood
$4,500,000
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Located just west of Telluride, nestled in the heart of the Rocky Mountains on Wright's Mesa, is the 126- acre Williams Ranch. A true equestrian oasis, the property is just 40 minutes away from the famous Telluride Ski Resort. With million-dollar views spanning from the Wilsons, to the Lone Cone and out to the La Sals, this ranch offers both luxury and practicality.
*NOTE: This property may or may not be a listing by The Harvey Team. MLS Link expires 3/1/22.
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BOX CANYON BRIEFS
Pending home sales fall 3.8% in December
Crypto Rich Targeting Luxury Real Estate >> READ MORE
Investment Giant Sees 'Most Remarkable Results in Our History' >> READ MORE
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TELLURIDE ACCOLADES
Travel and Leisure
Top 5 Ski Resort In The West - SKI Magazine
#2 Ski Resort in the United States and Canada 2019 - Condé Nast
"Small Town, Big Thrills Await Skiers in Telluride" – Chicago Tribune
America’s Best Ski Resorts: Telluride, CO –Forbes
Telluride Ski Resort Receives #1 Ranking for Overall Satisfaction– On The Snow
#2 Best Ski Destinations in the World U.S. News & World Report
#5 out of top 10 ski resorts for nightlife and Top 10 most scenic ski resorts in the world - USA Today
#1 top ski resort - Sunset Magazine
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Thank you for all the past referrals from your best friends and colleagues. We cannot thank you enough for your business and trust in The Harvey Team to bring the best possible real estate services to your friends, families and acquaintances.
SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT...
Choose a trusted real estate broker who knows the inventory, the market, and has historical knowledge that can't be found in the MLS or on the internet.
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