Quotes of the Day:
"Our peace and prosperity can never be taken for granted and must constantly be tended, so that never again do we have cause to build monuments to our fallen youth."
- Elizabeth II
"Life is not a matter of holding good cards, but sometimes, playing a poor hand well."
- Jack London
"Whoever fights monsters should see to it that in the process he does not become a monster. And if you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you."
- Friedrich Nietzsche
1. N. Korea leader says his country faces 'great turmoil' due to COVID-19 spread
2. Seoul could offer vaccine, medicine if Pyongyang requests
3. Rubio, Kaine Introduce Bill to Reauthorize North Korean Human Rights Act
4. How will South Korea-China relations unfold under Yoon administration?
5. Does US support Yoon's hawkish stance on North Korea?
6. Korea, U.S. resume combined medical support exercise
7. Project Reveal: North Korean Digital Controls
8. Managing Instability in North Korea
9. North Korea: Kim Jong-un declares Covid outbreak a ‘great disaster’
10. EXPLAINER: What's behind North Korea's COVID-19 admission?
1. N. Korea leader says his country faces 'great turmoil' due to COVID-19 spread
Juche will get you through, have "faith." We need to be wary and observe for the indications and warnings of internal instability.
A total of around 524,440 people in North Korea have shown symptoms of fevers between late April and May 13, the KCNA added. Among them, 243,630 have been completely cured, with roughly 280,810 being treated.
The reported number of coronavirus-linked deaths in the North has climbed to 27.
Kim, meanwhile, called for "faith" that the virus crisis can be overcome soon, stressing it is not "uncontrollable," as it is restricted within certain regions that have already been put under lockdown.
On Thursday, the reclusive North announced its first outbreak of COVID-19 since January 2020.
For those interested in Juche (Chuch'e):
Han S Park. ed. North Korea: Ideology, Politics, Economy, (Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall,1996), p. 15 in which Han S. Park describes Juche as theology. See also the Korea military news paper “KuK Pang Ilbo” editorial on 15 MAR 99, p. 6. Chuje’s (Juche) basic concept is this: “Man rules all things; man decides all things.” “The Kim Il Song Chuch'e ideology is based on these precepts: In ideology Chuche (autonomy); in politics, self-reliance; in economics, independence; and in National Security: self-defense.” See also Mattes Savada, ed., North Korea: A Country Study (Washington: Federal Research Division, Library of Congress, 1994), p. 324., “Kim Il Sung’s application of Marxism-Leninism to North Korean culture and serves as a fundamental tenet of the national ideology. “Based on autonomy and self-reliance, chuch’e has been popularized since 1955 as an official guideline for independence in politics, economics, national defense and foreign policy.”
(LEAD) N. Korea leader says his country faces 'great turmoil' due to COVID-19 spread | Yonhap News Agency
(ATTN: ADDS more info throughout, photo)
By Yi Wonju
SEOUL, May 14 (Yonhap) -- North Korea on Saturday reported 21 additional COVID-19 deaths, with more than 174,400 people nationwide feverish, as its leader Kim Jong-un stated that his country is faced with "great turmoil" due to the spread of the virus.
Pyongyang's state media released the updated tally compiled the previous day, after Kim presided over an early-morning politburo meeting to review the nation's "maximum emergency" antivirus system in place.
Mainly discussed in the session were ways for the swift supply and distribution of emergency medical supplies, according to the official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).
He was briefed on the current situation from the state emergency epidemic prevention headquarters and described it as "great turmoil since the country's founding," it reported.
He urged relevant authorities to learn from the "successful" coronavirus control measures of other countries, including China.
A total of around 524,440 people in North Korea have shown symptoms of fevers between late April and May 13, the KCNA added. Among them, 243,630 have been completely cured, with roughly 280,810 being treated.
The reported number of coronavirus-linked deaths in the North has climbed to 27.
Kim, meanwhile, called for "faith" that the virus crisis can be overcome soon, stressing it is not "uncontrollable," as it is restricted within certain regions that have already been put under lockdown.
On Thursday, the reclusive North announced its first outbreak of COVID-19 since January 2020.
(END)
2. Seoul could offer vaccine, medicine if Pyongyang requests
The regime must request AND accept. No one can force it one them. When will Kim reach the tipping point? How bad do conditions have to be? (e.g.,how significant is the threat to the regime because of internal conditions?)
Seoul could offer vaccine, medicine if Pyongyang requests
Posted May. 14, 2022 07:32,
Updated May. 14, 2022 07:32
Seoul could offer vaccine, medicine if Pyongyang requests. May. 14, 2022 07:32. by Ji-Sun Choi [email protected].
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol said South Korea could offer vaccines and medicine if North Korea requests in connection with Covid-19 outbreaks in the North. Irrespective of escalating provocations by Pyongyang prior to President Yoon’s inauguration, Seoul has thus offered to provide humanitarian assistance.
“President Yoon is committed to provide medicine including vaccines against Covid-19 to North Koreans,“ presidential spokeswoman Kang In-sun said in a written media briefing on Friday. “We will consult with Pyongyang about specific ways to provide aid.”
Some watchers say there could signs of thawing in contentious inter-Korean relations through cooperation in disease quarantine, but the presidential office is rather cautious about actual measures to be taken. “There has been no communication from North Korea,” a senior official at the presidential office said. “We will wait and see while examining what we can in collaboration with the international community. If Pyongyang requests for help, we are prepared to have sincere discussions.”
Pyongyang has been intensifying its internal quarantine efforts by disclosing the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases, which is a rare move. “A fever of unknown cause has spread explosively across the country since late April. More than 350,000 people with fever have been reported in a short period of time, and 18,000 people have come down with fever within just one day on May 12,” the North’s state-run Rodong Sinmun daily said.
It is the first time that the North has admitted facts about confirmed Covid-19 cases and disclosed specific numbers. The South Korean government is also reportedly judging that the transmission of Covid-19 in North Korea is grave. “There are loopholes in the quarantine system,” said North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, who had been seen wearing mask at public events. He also instructed his government to lock down all provinces, cities and counties across the country, as he was visiting the National Emergency Quarantine Command on Thursday.
3. Rubio, Kaine Introduce Bill to Reauthorize North Korean Human Rights Act
It is good to see continued bipartisan support for both Korean and human rights.
This is one of the new key provisions. China and Russia are complicit in north Korean human rights abuses.
Modify the North Korean Sanctions and Policy Act of 2016 to impose sanctions on Chinese and Russian officials responsible for forcibly repatriating North Koreans back to North Korea.
And we still need a special envoy for north Korean human rights:
SEC. 6. SPECIAL ENVOY FOR NORTH KOREAN HUMAN RIGHTS ISSUES. Section 107 of the North Korean Human Rights Act of 2004 (22 U.S.C. 7817) is amended by adding at the end the following: ‘‘
(e) REPORT ON APPOINTMENT OF SPECIAL ENVOY.—Not later than 180 days after the date of the enactment of this subsection and annually thereafter through 2027 if the position of Special Envoy remains vacant, the Secretary of State shall submit a report to the appropriate congressional committees that describes the efforts being taken to appoint the Special Envoy.’’.
MAY 13 2022
Washington, D.C. — U.S. Senators Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Tim Kaine (D-VA) introduced the North Korean Human Rights Reauthorization Act of 2022. The bill would reauthorize the North Korean Human Rights Act of 2004 for five years past its expiration in September 2022. U.S. Representative Young Kim (R-CA) introduced the House version of this legislation earlier this year. Senator Rubio led the successful effort to reauthorize the North Korean Human Rights Act in 2018.
“As Pyongyang continues to disregard the dignity of its citizens and demonstrates no tolerance for human rights, I’m proud to introduce legislation to reauthorize the North Korean Human Rights Act,” Rubio said. “As a beacon for democracy, the United States must do all we can to support the cause of human rights and assist those fleeing Kim’s regime. I urge my colleagues to ensure its swift passage in the Senate.”
“The ongoing abuses being committed by the North Korean regime are a direct affront to the values enshrined in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights,” Kaine said. “This bipartisan legislation will provide critical support for the North Korean people, who continue to have their most basic freedoms denied. Today and every day, I will push for initiatives that strengthen the rights and protect the dignity of the North Korean people.”
“Rather than commit to peace, Kim Jong-un has continued his father’s legacy of oppressing, starving and torturing his own people to preserve his power and build nuclear weapons. The U.S. must stand strong against human rights abuses in North Korea. As an immigrant from South Korea with family members who fled North Korea, supporting the North Korean people is personal to me,” Kim said. “I thank Senators Rubio and Kaine for introducing the Senate companion to the North Korean Human Rights Reauthorization Act of 2022 and look forward to our two chambers passing a final text into law.”
Specifically, the North Korean Human Rights Reauthorization Act would:
- Reauthorize humanitarian assistance, democracy programs and broadcasting until 2027;
- Make technical changes to the bill to reflect the fact that the US Agency for Global Media replaced the Broadcasting Board of Governors;
- Require a report from the administration, within 180 days, on progress towards appointing a Special Envoy for North Korean Human Rights, which has remained vacant since 2017;
- Require the State Department to increase efforts to increase North Korean refugees’ participation in U.S. and South Korean resettlement programs, including placing a refugee coordinator in an embassy located in Asia and providing information on resettlement programs in information disseminated in North Korea; and
- Modify the North Korean Sanctions and Policy Act of 2016 to impose sanctions on Chinese and Russian officials responsible for forcibly repatriating North Koreans back to North Korea.
4. How will South Korea-China relations unfold under Yoon administration?
Excerpts:
He said Seoul prioritizing its alliance with the U.S. to mitigate threats from Pyongyang and enhance supply chains of key industries and technologies "does not mean South Korea is willing to jeopardize its relations with China."
"The government will strive to maintain cordial relations with China, not only because its export-oriented economy is deeply embedded in the supply-chain network centered on China. China is and will continue to be an indispensable party to any resolution to North Korea's nuclear program."
How will South Korea-China relations unfold under Yoon administration?
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, right, shakes hands with Chinese Vice President Wang Qishan at his office in Yongsan, central Seoul, before holding talks on Tuesday. The meeting took place after Yoon was sworn in as president earlier in the day. Korea Times photo by Seo Jae-hoon
Beijing increasingly reaching out to Seoul under new president, as Washington steps up efforts to secure partners amid rivalry
By Kim Bo-eun
HONG KONG ― South Korea's new leader Yoon Suk-yeol's evident siding with the U.S. has had observers projecting that ties with China will weaken under the new administration.
The new president's plans to boost engagement with Washington in security and trade, comes at a time when the latter's rivalry with Beijing is escalating in the Indo-Pacific region.
Yoon's predecessor, the Moon Jae-in administration, had opted not to take sides, as Korea relies largely on the U.S. for security and on China for its economy. Moon had also counted on Beijing to help achieve progress in relations with the reclusive state of North Korea.
The dynamics of foreign policy are expected to change under the Yoon administration. But China appears set on making sure ties stay intact and that it keeps its influence in the region.
On the same day Yoon was sworn in, Chinese President Xi Jinping invited him to hold a summit. The invitation came ahead of a scheduled meeting between Yoon and U.S. President Joe Biden on May 21, which will be the quickest meeting to take place between a U.S. and South Korean president after the inauguration of the latter to date.
The invitation was delivered by China's Vice President Wang Qishan who attended Yoon's inauguration ceremony. Not only was Wang a higher ranking official to attend an inauguration ceremony for a South Korean president compared to previous figures; it was also a rare overseas visit by a senior Chinese leader after the outbreak of the COVID pandemic.
South Korea's Ambassador to China Jang Ha-sung said this reflected "the development of bilateral ties, as well as wishes on the part of China to further promote relations between the countries."
China's state media, The Global Times, in the past months has continued to emphasize bilateral ties. In an editorial published Tuesday titled "Yoon most likely to handle relations with China well," the government mouthpiece said, "The respect and importance (China) attaches to South Korea will not change with the election of a new president. China has displayed huge sincerity to push its ties with South Korea to move forward steadily and develop the ties to a higher level."
Former President Moon Jae-in and Chinese President Xi Jinping shake hands before their summit in Beijing, Dec. 23, 2019. Joint Press CorpsDespite Yoon's anticipated shift toward South Korea's traditional security partner, the U.S., his transition committee did not include an additional deployment of the U.S. anti-missile Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system among the incoming administration's major tasks. This had been among one of Yoon's election pledges, as a means to boost defense capabilities against North Korea's growing threats.
THAAD is a thorny issue with China, as it believes the U.S. missile defense system can spy into its territory. South Korea's decision with the U.S. to deploy THAAD in 2016 and the subsequent stationing of the system angered Beijing and prompted it to take a series of moves that curbed the operations of Korean businesses both in China and Korea.
The omission of the plan in the Yoon administration's main task list is seen as Korea still taking China into account, despite growing provocations from the North, as well as Washington's stepped up efforts to solidify ties with partners in the Indo-Pacific in the midst of its power struggle with Beijing.
Experts said bilateral relations are set to face the toughest times, but will still remain key.
"Having been tangled somewhat with Russia's attack against Ukraine, especially in the eyes of the U.S., Beijing's relations with Washington and its major allies have become even further deteriorated," Shi Yin-hong, professor of international relations at Renmin University of China, said.
Shi referred to Pyongyang's acceleration of weapons development, and said "Yoon, a declared hardliner conservative, will necessarily take a harsh posture toward Kim based on closer allied cooperation with the U.S. and perhaps also with Japan."
"This, and China's teaming up with North Korea, as well as Russia and Iran, together with dropping denuclearization from China's policy toward North Korea since late March 2021, will surely push political relations between Seoul and Beijing to go down further, if not dramatically," he said.
But at the same time, the professor noted that both sides will try to maintain profitable trade relations and referred to China's motivations to stay engaged with Korea that go beyond trade.
"China has an important interest in preventing South Korea from getting involved deeper in the American and Japanese security system against China," he said.
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol speaks at his inauguration ceremony held at the National Assembly in Seoul, Tuesday. YonhapFei Xue, senior Asia analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, shared views that ties with China will continue to matter for Korea.
He said Seoul prioritizing its alliance with the U.S. to mitigate threats from Pyongyang and enhance supply chains of key industries and technologies "does not mean South Korea is willing to jeopardize its relations with China."
"The government will strive to maintain cordial relations with China, not only because its export-oriented economy is deeply embedded in the supply-chain network centered on China. China is and will continue to be an indispensable party to any resolution to North Korea's nuclear program."
5. Does US support Yoon's hawkish stance on North Korea?
It is imperative that the alliance comes out of the summit aligned on security issues. I think it will.
Excerpts:
However, it remains to be seen if the United States will stand up for its ally's hawkish stance on the Kim Jong-un regime, which could ratchet up tensions on the Korean Peninsula, as Washington, already preoccupied with other diplomatic issues such as its strategic competition with China and Russia's war in Ukraine, wants to settle for a status quo on the peninsula.
Many believe that Yoon's hardline stance will increase the arms race between the two Koreas, which will eventually stoke tensions on the peninsula.
"This month, the U.S. government does not want the situation on the peninsula to deteriorate further and in that respect, should the Yoon administration unilaterally adopt a hardline stance on North Korea, the U.S. would urge South Korea to refrain from undermining the situation," said Cho Han-beom, a senior researcher of the Korea Institute for National Unification.
Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University, expressed a similar view, citing the Joe Biden administration's lukewarm stance on issues regarding North Korea.
"If the inter-Korean confrontation intensifies, the U.S. side is likely to urge restraint from South Korea as well as North Korea so as to manage the situation," he said.
Does US support Yoon's hawkish stance on North Korea?
Washington wants to maintain status quo with Pyongyang: experts
By Kang Seung-woo
New South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol's policy toward North Korea can be summed up in one word, "hardline," based on his previous remarks during the campaign.
On the campaign trail, Yoon, a foreign policy neophyte, mentioned a pre-emptive strike in case of signs of an imminent North Korean nuclear attack, while pledging to deploy an additional U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile defense system to counter Pyongyang's evolving missile threats, both of which drew fiery responses from North Korea.
In addition, the Yoon administration is considering referring to North Korea as South Korea's "main enemy" in its defense white paper. Plus, he is open to inter-Korean talks only when North Korea genuinely embarks on the path to complete denuclearization.
However, it remains to be seen if the United States will stand up for its ally's hawkish stance on the Kim Jong-un regime, which could ratchet up tensions on the Korean Peninsula, as Washington, already preoccupied with other diplomatic issues such as its strategic competition with China and Russia's war in Ukraine, wants to settle for a status quo on the peninsula.
Many believe that Yoon's hardline stance will increase the arms race between the two Koreas, which will eventually stoke tensions on the peninsula.
"This month, the U.S. government does not want the situation on the peninsula to deteriorate further and in that respect, should the Yoon administration unilaterally adopt a hardline stance on North Korea, the U.S. would urge South Korea to refrain from undermining the situation," said Cho Han-beom, a senior researcher of the Korea Institute for National Unification.
Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University, expressed a similar view, citing the Joe Biden administration's lukewarm stance on issues regarding North Korea.
"If the inter-Korean confrontation intensifies, the U.S. side is likely to urge restraint from South Korea as well as North Korea so as to manage the situation," he said.
An F-16 fighter of the U.S. Air Force takes off at Osan Air Base in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province, Monday, as Korea and the United States kicked off their two-week regular air force drill, dubbed "Korea Flying Training." Yonhap
Along with headline-grabbing pledges of pre-emptive strikes and THAAD deployment, the Yoon administration also wants the permanent presence of U.S. strategic assets on the peninsula that the North Korean regime has responded strongly to.
Last month, Yoon sent a policy consultation delegation to Washington, where it discussed the issue with U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan. The strategic assets refer to long-range bombers, nuclear-powered submarines and aircraft carriers.
In that respect, the government is seeking to reactivate regular meetings of the Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group (EDSCG), a high-level consultative mechanism to achieve North Korea's denuclearization through steadfast deterrence, which last met in January 2018. Extended deterrence refers to the commitment to use nuclear weapons to deter attacks on allies. The U.S. has provided extended deterrence or a nuclear umbrella to South Korea since removing all of its nuclear assets from the peninsula in 1991.
However, the permanent deployment of U.S. strategic assets may be rejected by Washington as the issue has been discussed between the two countries for a long time without any progress being made, as the U.S. is also mindful of a possible backlash from North Korea or China.
President Biden is scheduled to visit Seoul next week, and he has requested to meet former President Moon Jae-in during his three-day stay, which is seen as "unprecedented." The envisaged meeting is raising speculation that the U.S. government will try to use Moon as a bridge to manage the situation on the peninsula.
"The U.S. seems to believe that Moon can help relations between the U.S. and North Korea transform confrontation to dialogue and in that sense, I guess Biden is seeking to meet Moon," former Unification Minister Jeong Se-hyun said in a recent radio interview.
Their first summit in May 2021 reaffirmed the strength of the bilateral alliance, with Korea unequivocally standing with the U.S. on issues concerning U.S.-China relations and the competition for influence in the region.
Harry Kazianis, the president and CEO of the think tank Rogue States Project, also said Yoon may feel alone in taking a tough stance against North Korea because the U.S., which is now busy dealing with other diplomatic matters, may not fully accept his policy toward Pyongyang.
"Right now, Biden looks at Pyongyang's missiles and nuclear weapons as a challenge that only presents political pain and nothing he can solve easily. Washington knows that in order to make any progress with Pyongyang will take very tough negotiations and years of effort as well as using political capital they do not have at the moment," Kazianis said.
"Combine all that with the war in Ukraine, you will likely see President Yoon mostly on his own trying to contain North Korea while Washington attends to what it feels are other more pressing matters."
Ramon Pacheco Pardo, a professor of international relations at King's College London, said that the allies will try to coordinate their respective North Korea policies.
"So I think that both of them will leave the door open to dialogue with Pyongyang," he said.
"Dialogue should be a key pillar of any approach towards North Korea. And ultimately I think that the Yoon government will sit down to talk to Pyongyang if the opportunity arises. But I think that its current stance also makes sense as a starting point to any bargaining process with North Korea."
6. Korea, U.S. resume combined medical support exercise
This is another example of routine training that takes place year round. There are many types of exercises and training in many different areas that are ongoing. During the previous administration I think reporting on these types of exercises and training was frowned upon. And of course everyone just focuses on the large training exercises and not the routine field training that takes place year round which is also critical to maintaining readiness. Year round multi-echelon training is the key to readiness.
Korea, U.S. resume combined medical support exercise
Korean and U.S. soldiers engage in two days of medical support field training on May 11 and 12. Courtesy of Armed Forces Medical CommandSouth Korea and the United States held their combined medical support field training earlier this week after years of suspension caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the former's Army said Friday.
The biannual exercise took place Wednesday and Thursday, with an aim to treat and transport casualties under a chemical warfare scenario, and enhance the allies' interoperability, according to the Armed Forces Medical Command.
The U.S. Army's 65th Medical Brigade and other medical units joined the exercise, mobilizing their key assets, including a KUH-1M, a variant of the KUH-1 Surion helicopter, a C-130 transport plane and U.S. HH-60 choppers.
During the session, South Korean and U.S. service members practiced transporting wounded troops to Camp Humphreys, a key U.S. base in Pyeongtaek, 70 kilometers south of Seoul, by train.
Korean and U.S. soldiers engage in two days of medical support field training on May 11 and 12. Courtesy of Armed Forces Medical Command
South Korea and the U.S. launched the exercise, as they agreed in 2008 on the need for combined field training on the transportation of troops injured in action. The exercise, however, did not take place in 2020 and last year due to COVID-19.
The resumption of the exercise came just a day after the inauguration of President Yoon Suk-yeol, who has vowed to cement the alliance and "normalize" the allies' combined exercises.
Under the previous administration, Seoul and Washington had scaled down their major regular military exercises to help facilitate diplomacy with North Korea. (Yonhap)
7. Project Reveal: North Korean Digital Controls
A very important project. Martyn Williams is one of the most knowledgeable people about the digital and information terrain in north Korea.
Anyone working on strategic influence in north Korea should use this report and the supplemental materials.
Project Reveal: North Korean Digital Controls
North Korean computer-literate citizens, trained by the state itself, appear to be pushing back on the regime’s attempts to censor and control information access on smartphones. While this cat and mouse game between the state and its people has been ongoing for at least the last two decades, 38 North Fellow Martyn Williams and ERNW Security Analyst Niklaus Schiess examine new ways in which the people are winning.
In their report, “Project Reveal: New research into North Korea’s digital control system,” published in April by Lumen, Williams and Schiess discuss how smartphones have proven a particularly difficult technology for the state to control. Efforts to do so have centered around a system that employs digital certificates on approved content. But two North Korean defectors quoted in the report talk about the methods they used to hack the system and disable it, allowing their phones to play any video and accept any app.
The method used represents a more complex challenge to the state and is only possible because the North Korean government has been encouraging students to pursue technical careers such as computer science. The state’s immediate response appears to be the disabling of USB data transfers on smartphones and new laws that deal more harshly with the installation of rogue apps—something that was not a problem in the past.
The report also details the lengths the state has gone to in ensuring Wi-Fi services in Pyongyang are controlled and the growing challenges the state faces in trying to maintain its draconian information controls while integrating digital technologies into everyday life.
8. Managing Instability in North Korea
A useful reference. I participated in some of the workshops for these reports. It is time that ROK and US government officials and military planners relook these issues.
Learn, adapt, and anticipate.
Managing Instability in North Korea
North Korea’s reporting of its first confirmed case of COVID-19, along with reports that hundreds of thousands have feverish symptoms, raises serious concerns about how the country will cope with the pandemic. With its fragile public health system, a general lack of medicines, equipment (like respirators), and vaccines, Kim Jong Un has a serious challenge on his hands—one that could turn devastating if not well managed.
In 2017, 38 North published a series of reports that examined key issues and concerns that would stem from instability in North Korea. Given the times, we are reissuing the following reports from that series.
“North Korea, Weapons of Mass Destruction and Instability: Strategic Issues for Managing Crisis and Reducing Risks,” by Rebecca K. C. Hersman. All too often discussions of instability, insurgency and regime collapse are used interchangeably to describe the catalyst of a potential weapons of mass destruction (WMD) crisis in North Korea. In fact, these are related, but discreet phenomena with critical distinctions that need to be made when considering related WMD risks. This paper considers a range of scenarios of how crisis may occur—whether through a sudden crisis event or a slow developing over time—to determine where challenges and opportunities for international response differ and where they remain constant.
“Assessing the Risk of Regime Change in North Korea,” by Paul B. Stares. This paper explores important questions about the prospects for regime change and its putative benefits. How might it occur, and what seems to be the most likely scenario? What are the potential consequences and results? Can we assume that the preferred outcomes will be realized?
“Insurgency in the DPRK? Post-regime Insurgency in Comparative Perspective” by Austin Long. Instability in the DPRK could have many sources, ranging from internal political strife to a global pandemic. Regardless of origin, instability could lead to the collapse of the regime, which could in turn open the door to potential civil war inside the DPRK as well as resistance to an intervention seeking to reunify the Korean peninsula. This paper uses a comparative approach to assess the likelihood of a serious insurgency and/or civil violence in the DPRK following a hypothetical collapse of the state.
9. North Korea: Kim Jong-un declares Covid outbreak a ‘great disaster’
Excerpts:
Kim said they would be following the Chinese model of virus prevention.
“We should take lessons from the experiences and fruitful achievements in preventing virus of the China’s Communist party and its people,” he said.
State media said tests of virus samples collected Sunday from an unspecified number of people with fevers in the country’s capital, Pyongyang, confirmed they were infected with the Omicron variant. The country has so far officially confirmed one death as linked to an Omicron infection.
Experts say a failure to control the spread of Covid could have devastating consequences in North Korea, considering the country’s poor healthcare system and that its 26 million people are largely unvaccinated.
North Korea: Kim Jong-un declares Covid outbreak a ‘great disaster’
Pyongyang reports 21 more deaths as it scrambles to slow spread of the virus across unvaccinated population
North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, has declared the country’s first Covid-19 outbreak a “great disaster” as it reported 21 more deaths.
State media said 174,440 people were newly found with fever symptoms on Friday alone as the country scrambles to slow the spread of Covid-19 across its unvaccinated population.
North Korea said on Saturday that a total of 27 people have died and 524,440 fell ill amid a rapid spread of fever since late April. It said 280,810 people remain in quarantine.
State media did not specifically say how many of the fever cases and deaths were confirmed as Covid-19 cases.
During a meeting on anti-virus strategies on Saturday, Kim described the outbreak as a historically “huge disruption” and called for unity between the government and people to stabilise the outbreak as quickly as possible.
The meeting discussed “promptly distributing emergency drugs” and introducing “scientific treatment tactics and treatment methods for different patients, including those with special constitutions”, KCNA reported.
Kim said he had “faith that we can overcome this malicious infectious disease within the shortest period possible,” the report added.
Kim said they would be following the Chinese model of virus prevention.
“We should take lessons from the experiences and fruitful achievements in preventing virus of the China’s Communist party and its people,” he said.
State media said tests of virus samples collected Sunday from an unspecified number of people with fevers in the country’s capital, Pyongyang, confirmed they were infected with the Omicron variant. The country has so far officially confirmed one death as linked to an Omicron infection.
Experts say a failure to control the spread of Covid could have devastating consequences in North Korea, considering the country’s poor healthcare system and that its 26 million people are largely unvaccinated.
North Korea has so far shunned offers of Covid vaccines from China and Russia, and via the World Health Organization’s Covax scheme, apparently because administering the jabs would require outside monitoring.
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said the regime’s public acknowledgment of coronavirus cases meant “the public health situation must be serious”.
With Reuters, Associated Press and Agence France-Presse
10. EXPLAINER: What's behind North Korea's COVID-19 admission?
EXPLAINER: What's behind North Korea's COVID-19 admission?
AP · by HYUNG-JIN KIM and KIM TONG-HYUNG · May 13, 2022
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — Before acknowledging its first domestic COVID-19 cases, North Korea spent 2 1/2 years rejecting outside offers of vaccines and steadfastly claiming that its superior socialist system was protecting its 26 million people from “a malicious virus” that had killed millions around the world.
Its surprise admission this week has left many outsiders wondering just how bad things really are, and there’s rising worry that it could cause a major humanitarian crisis in a country with one of the world’s worst public medical infrastructures.
Because the North has been shut up tight since early 2020, with no reporters, aid workers or diplomats regularly going in, reading the situation is something of a guessing game, and the North has been vague with its state media descriptions of widespread fevers. But there are some worrying facts: no reported vaccines, very limited testing capability, a terrible medical system and widespread poverty.
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Without immediate outside aid shipments, some experts say North Korea could face massive fatality and infection rates. Others, however, say North Korea is using its admission of an outbreak to rally the public against the virus and boost its control of its people.
Here’s a look at what a lockdown in one of the world’s most locked-down nations might look like.
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WHAT IS KNOWN ABOUT THE OUTBREAK?
North Korea announced Thursday that an unspecified number of people in Pyongyang tested positive for the omicron variant. It called the outbreak the state’s “most serious emergency.”
It was unclear, however, about the extent, and the North’s media used vague language.
State media reports Friday said a “fever” has been spreading “explosively” since late April, leaving six dead, 350,000 sickened and 187,800 quarantined. They said one of the dead had been diagnosed with the omicron variant.
The reports said the cause of the fever has yet to be identified.
Kim Sin-gon, a professor at Seoul’s Korea University College of Medicine, said most of the people with fever were likely virus patients. He said North Korea has a limited number of COVID-19 testing kits.
The World Health Organization says North Korea has reported tests of 64,200 people since the pandemic’s start, an extremely low figure compared with other countries. The number of COVID-19 tests in South Korea stands at about 172 million.
North Korea’s outbreak may be linked to a massive military parade on April 25, where leader Kim Jong Un spoke about his nuclear weapons in front of tens of thousands of Pyongyang residents and troops. The omicron virus may have entered North Korea over its northern border with China when it reopened railroad freight traffic between the two countries in January. The border has since been closed.
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WHAT ARE THE CHALLENGES?
The outbreak could be devastating because North Korea’s people largely remain unvaccinated and it suffers a chronic shortage of medicine and medical equipment.
“North Korea has many vulnerable people who don’t have strong immune systems. Its official inoculation rate is zero and it has no COVID-19 treatment pills,” Kim, the professor, said. “North Korea may end up with the pandemic’s worst death and infection rates in the world for its population size” without outside support.
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In many advanced countries, omicron has led to significantly fewer hospitalizations and deaths than previous coronavirus variants, but that’s mostly because of vaccinations, use of COVID-19 antiviral pills, effective treatment at intensive care units, and populations that have been exposed to the virus before. None of this applies to North Korea, said Jung Jae-hun, a professor of preventive medicine at South Korea’s Gachon University.
“We were talking about a 0.1% fatality rate for omicron in South Korea, but that’s going to be significantly higher in North Korea, possibly even reaching 1%, although it’s difficult to make accurate predictions at this point,” Jung said.
North Korea’s secretive nature makes it virtually impossible to figure out the true scale of its outbreak and how it will develop.
Many North Koreans have adjusted to living with a troubled medical system and buying medicine privately, according to Ahn Kyung-su, head of DPRKHEALTH.ORG, a website focusing on health issues in North Korea.
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While North Korea cannot avoid mass infections, Ahn said it will likely avoid “a catastrophic” death toll like the hundreds of thousands of deaths reported during a mid-1990s famine.
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HOW IS NORTH KOREA RESPONDING?
Since Thursday, North Korea has imposed a nationwide lockdown, isolating all work and residential units from one another. But there are signs that the country might try to live with the virus, to some extent.
Kim Jong Un still ordered officials to move ahead with construction, agricultural and other scheduled state projects. On Thursday afternoon, the country even test-fired three ballistic missiles, suggesting it would continue its recent streak of weapons tests.
Hong Min, an analyst at Seoul’s Korea Institute for National Unification, said North Korea’s pandemic response will be mostly about isolating people with symptoms at shelters. He said North Korea doesn’t have the resources to impose extreme lockdowns like in China, which has shut down entire cities and confined residents to their homes. It’s also worried about further hurting an already fragile economy.
Ahn said the toughened anti-virus steps won’t be much different from previous curbs and that it’s mostly rhetoric meant to press a public tired of long-running pandemic restrictions to keep their vigilance amid surging cases in neighboring China.
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North Korea may use the elevated pandemic response to boost its control of its people, said Yang Un-chul, an analyst at the private Sejong Institute. North Korea would have received previous outside vaccine shipment offers if it had indeed wanted to guard against the virus, Yang said.
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WHAT ARE THE PROSPECTS FOR OUTSIDE HELP?
The outbreak renews hopes that North Korea might accept outside shipments of vaccines, COVID-19 treatment pills and other medical supplies.
North Korea won’t directly ask for such help but will instead see how Seoul and Washington react at first, said Kim, the professor.
Other experts say that North Korea may think that isolating people with symptoms is the only realistic option it has, considering its deficiencies in hospital infrastructure and medical supplies, which would be difficult to overcome without extensive outside help — something North Korea is unlikely to accept.
Jung said the only meaningful help North Korea might allow is limited supplies of vaccines for the elderly and people with pre-existing medical conditions, as it’s too late to inoculate the country’s entire population.
Hong said North Korea’s moves to push on with its goals of improving its economy and military despite the outbreak suggest that the country is willing to accept a certain level of fatalities to gain immunity through infection, rather than receiving vaccines and other outside help.
AP · by HYUNG-JIN KIM and KIM TONG-HYUNG · May 13, 2022
V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
