May 31, 2024

The world seems to have awakened to the hard fact that Russia has gained momentum in Ukraine- and that the implications stretch far beyond Ukraine’s borders. In the past few months, Russia has made some important strategic shifts. It has pivoted to a war economy and after rearming and recalibrating its forces, has begun to make significant territorial gains especially in Kharkiv at a pace not seen since the beginning of the war. Capitalizing on several outside events – the six-month delay in U.S. funding that starved Ukraine of critical armaments and munitions as well as the Israel-Hamas battle – Russia has opened up a new front from the North and leveraged its air superiority and the lack of Ukrainian defensive systems to once again threaten Ukrainian energy infrastructure and ports, hampering Ukrainian grain exports and posing anew a threat to the global food supply.

Leveraging an effective disinformation campaign, Russia has managed to continue to influence elections across Europe and win a certain distanced neutrality to the conflict in the global zeitgeist. Washington’s announcement that it is sending $135 million in aid to Moldova for energy security - and to counter Russian disinformation - demonstrates the gravity of the Kremlin’s bolstered moral and galvanized effort to push forward into new theatres of influence. Russia has also effectively developed new strategic partnerships with Iran and North Korea to secure critical new supplies for its war. And it’s made paradigm-shifting gains in Western Africa, facilitating coups via its private militias in Burkina Faso, Chad, Gabon, Guinea, Mali, and Niger thereby ostracizing Western security forces and securing critical resources and a vital income source for Moscow.

Now that Washington has approved a $61 Billion U.S. military package, it will take real time to move critical munitions and armaments to Ukraine and stem the tide of Russian momentum. Beyond the funding, there are simply not enough weapons and munitions to provide to Ukraine globally as evidenced by the Pentagon’s opening of a new ammunitions plant in Texas that will double U.S. output. This reflects the need in Ukraine, but also the importance for the United States and the West to ensure that they maintain their own strategic reserves in case of a U.S. conflict with China over Taiwan, or with Iran, or an expanded war with Russia in Europe. Much-needed U.S. patriot systems remain in the Middle East protecting U.S. assets in the region in addition to providing a deterrent for a larger regional war between Iran and Israel. Ukrainian pilots training to fly F16s still need months before they can take to the skies in active combat. And to make the situation even more challenging, Ukraine is having a hard time mobilizing troops to fight on its brutal front line. The hope is that a new recruitment campaign will change this dynamic within 6 months.

Western leaders have begun to contemplate the implications of renewed Russian momentum and are making active efforts to counter it. The most important of these is Biden’s acquiescence to mounting pressure to allow Ukraine to use U.S. weaponry to “make limited cross-border strikes on Russian forces.” Europe seems deeply aware that there is a heightened risk now for expanded conflict with Poland and the Baltic States. Poland announced this week that in response to relentless cyberattacks, arson attempts, and a migrant crisis manufactured by Belarus that it will spend US$2.5 billion on the “Shield-East system” – that will include anti-drone towers, anti-tank barriers, bunkers, and designated space for future minefields – to reinforce its 700-kilometer eastern border with Russia and Belarus. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are pursuing similar measures in coordination with NATO. Anticipating future funding battles, Western and European leaders are contemplating how to use $350 billion in frozen Russian assets or at a minimum the interest from those assets to help fund assistance to Ukraine.

The fundamental question that is emerging is can we afford to lose in Ukraine? And if not, what are we prepared to do to ensure that we don’t. Foreign ministers from NATO countries met in Prague this week to help prepare for the NATO summit in July in Washington. At this summit, it is expected that major announcements will be made regarding commitments to strengthen NATO's defenses, deepen the alliance's partnerships, and increase support for Ukraine. 

The Arkin Group is a strategic intelligence firm offering investigative research, due diligence, international risk and crisis consulting, and security & preparedness services. We can be contacted at 212-333-0280.