Two new PONARS Eurasia Policy Memos look at the war’s impact outside of the Western world. Pavel Baev writes that the onset of the Ukraine war has weakened Russia’s positions in the Middle East as actors conclude that Russia’s “feeble punch is on par with its diminished weight.” Alexander Iskandaryan explains that any abrupt change in the power configuration in the South Caucasus is potentially threatening, as Moscow’s war and losses reformat the post-Soviet space from consolidating Europe to decelerating policymaking in the neighborhood.

In another new PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo, Richard Arnold writes that President Vladimir Putin delayed the full invasion of Ukraine partially out of fear of losing hosting rights for the 2018 World Cup—allowing the Ukrainian army time to improve.

Margarita Zavadskaya analyzes Putin’s speech celebrating the annexation of four new Ukrainian regions and concludes from its incoherent nature that Putin’s only strategy is to continue the war despite steep costs. Commenting on that new annexation, Arkady Moshes adds that for the first time in history, no one seems to know where Russia’s western borders are. Yuri Zhukov says that among Putin’s next steps could be intensifying missile strikes against critical civilian infrastructure like power plants and dams and command-and-control centers far from the front lines, even though such attacks may not dampen Ukrainian morale.

Marlene Laruelle explores the Kremlin’s ideological offerings to justify the mobilization, finding it is between a rock and a hard place as it takes inspiration from political hawks without providing structured ideological indoctrination. Richard Arnold examines the school shooting in Izhevsk, Russia, questioning whether it was the result of the shooter’s mental health issues, Nazi sympathies, or anti-state violence. Caress Schenk explains the overrepresentation of ethnic minorities in Russian war casualties as a consequence of higher poverty rates in those populations. In the meantime, says Emil Dzhuraev, Putin is “losing his aura” across the region.

Kiril Rogov says it is too early to declare mobilization a failure, considering Levada Center surveys show 70-75 percent of Russians support the war against Ukraine. Gulnaz Sharafutdinova discerns that challenges to Putin’s rule could arise from different sources, most likely associated with radical groups and leaders such as Ramzan Kadyrov and Yevgeny Prigozhin, who “have armies.” Why don’t Russians march on Moscow? Vladimir Gel’man says Putin’s repressive machinery has obliterated the coordination needed for political protest, while Russia’s great size makes it easy for authorities to minimize regional rallies.

Volodymyr Ishchenko writes that the invasion is not simply a product of Putin’s expansionist mindset but corresponds to a project for “Russian capitalism” that he, his oligarchs, and allies have pursued since the 1990s. The combination of economic upheaval, sanctions, and key policy development, pushes corrupt officials in Russia to become better versed in how to abuse their public office and make off with proceeds, David Szakonyi argues. Samuel Charap and co-authors analyze Russian coercive signaling toward the United States and its allies, finding that many of its signs are meant to shape and deter behavior and do not pose immediate safety concerns.

Modern Ukrainians, Belarusians, and Russians all trace their heritage to Kievan Rus, says Yoshiko Herrera, a source of fierce, unanswerable debates about whether “Ukraine was once part of Russia, or Russia once part of Ukraine.”

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New Voices on Eurasia event with Anton Shirikov: The Kremlin’s Echo Chambers: Why Russians Trust Propaganda and Reject Independent Media, Wednesday, October 12, 2022, 4–5 PM (EDT).

Meet the 2022 IERES Program on Ukraine Fall Fellows in partnership with the Petrach Ukraine Studies program and the GW Elliott School Fund for Scholars Affected by the War in Ukraine.

Thank you for joining us at our recent Annual Fall Policy Conference! View the event recordings and stay tuned for the policy memos.