In a new PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo, Yuriy Matsiyevsky examines Ukrainian resistance in Russian-occupied territories, finding it has hindered Moscow’s military and political goals. The ICC has also now indicted Putin for war crimes, which Sam Greene argues “permanently denormalizes” his relationship with any party to the Rome Statute. Not with China, though, notes Jordan Gans-Morse, who adds it will affect Putin’s ability to travel and perhaps hurt his efforts to get sanctions lifted. For Kristina Hook, the indictment may deter other Russian officials from participating in atrocities. She also finds signs of Russian genocide in systematic violence perpetuated against Ukrainian men, women, children, and the elderly.

After Russian aircraft knocked down a U.S. drone, Samuel Charap points out Russia has long been conducting aggressive air intercepts. And with Poland now promising fighter jets for Ukraine, Samuel Greene and Alina Polyakova find that incremental arming of Kyiv sets up a protracted conflict that should be more quickly resolved. Henry Hale expects American jets may also be promised at some point. Mikhail Troitskiy sees Putin’s plans as still in flux, thinking he may even be considering a defensive posture, while Dmitry Gorenburg is surprised by reports that Russian-backed troops are evacuating Kherson’s east bank since that area has been quiet. At this point, the war could still go either way, cautions Maria Snegovaya.

On Russia’s home front, Valerie Sperling shows how Putin uses tropes of masculinity to bolster his own legitimacy and project Russian power during the war, and Marlene Laruelle finds his regime has now embraced previously peripheral radical philosophies. Kirill Rogov suggests many Russians are conflicted on the war, while Greene points out they are more willing to criticize the military’s conduct than the war itself. Oscar accolades for the documentary film Navalny don’t remedy the opposition leader’s failure to denounce Russian imperialism, says Maria Popova. As for the opposition in exile, Snegovaya finds them disunited and hobbled by fear of alienating supporters in Russia, where the anti-war feeling is not widespread. Timothy Frye, Scott Gehlbach​, Kyle Marquardt, and Ora John Reuter revisit older studies and still conclude Putin’s popularity numbers are likely real. Good research can be conducted on authoritarian regimes from outside them, argue Paul Goode and David Stroup.

Pavel Baev says Beijing’s “peace plan” got only curt attention in Moscow and that the two states are “operating on different timetables,” with China focusing on influencing the Taiwan elections in early 2024 and Russia bracing for a Ukrainian spring offensive. In fact, Elizabeth Wishnick notes, China “has done remarkably little so far to encourage peace in Ukraine” and is reluctant to pressure Russia. Kornely Kakachia and Bidzina Lebanidze fear Georgia’s European future is falling victim to a domestic power struggle, while Lebanidze also argues the EU needs to invest more in its Eastern Partnership region. For Azamat Junisbai, Kazakhstan’s new election system is a positive move, though laments there are still “no genuine opposition parties on the ballots.”

Events

Join the Petrach Program on Ukraine for a presentation of “Voices of Freedom: Contemporary Writing From Ukraine” with Kateryna Kazimirova and Peter Rollberg on Tuesday, March 21, 11 am-12 pm (EDT).