Three new PONARS Eurasia Policy Memos examine different consequences of Russia’s all-out war on Ukraine. Margarita Zavadskaya and co-authors find that the mass exodus of middle-class Russians entails isolation, lack of prospects, and difficulty finding a sense of normalcy. Vadim Grishin concludes that the outlines of a new geopolitical order are becoming visible as the conflict impacts the global economic environment. Kornely Kakachia and Bidzina Lebanidze argue Russia’s war has intensified political polarization in Georgia, creating tensions in its relationship with the West.

Keith Darden sees neither a diplomatic nor an immediate military solution to the Russia-Ukraine war: Ukrainians think they can win and Russians are committed for the long term, but the two have worn each other to an operational standstill. Building on an earlier PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo, Susanne Wengle and Vitalii Dankevych show how Russia’s destruction of Ukrainian farms, machinery, and infrastructure is not collateral damage but a core part of Putin’s military strategy.

On the Western response, Arkady Moshes writes that its values-free realpolitik treatment of Russia has failed to prevent war in Europe. Konstantin Sonin says that while illicit economies prevent sanctions from cutting off all of Russia’s revenue, it is still worthwhile to reduce it, and Russia will not be able to enact the reforms it needs to win the war and sustain current living standards. Stephen Crowley suggests sanctions may soon hit Russia harder, increasing the likelihood of “destabilizing protests” in the longer term. Nikolai Petrov adds that “Russia is at full steam heading toward a dead end,” while Muscovites are trying to preserve a sense of normal.

Commenting on the killing of Darya Dugina, daughter of right-wing philosopher Alexander Dugin, Marlene Laruelle clarifies that he, though having been prominent in the 1990s, is marginalized in Russia’s global ideological production and even more in the Kremlin’s thinking. Peter Rutland calls Dugin a “Putin gadfly,” positing someone within the security agencies targeted his daughter to help Putin with his “troublesome critic.” Examining other fields of repression in Russia, David Szakonyi finds incumbents are abandoning straightforward vote-rigging in the face of intense public backlash and migrating to more subtle forms of election manipulation.

Following the passing of former USSR President Mikhail Gorbachev, Brian Taylor characterizes him as one of the 20th century’s transformational figures, a symbol of greater freedom to some and of collapse and humiliation to others. Mark Kramer adds that Gorbachev’s record is unquestionably marked by both enormous achievements and monumental failures; Russian public opinion focuses on the failures, while Western views are more favorable. Gorbachev’s record contrasts dramatically with leaders like Lenin, Stalin, and Mao, who Lucan Way argues recklessly created enemies but forged strong authoritarian institutions through the resulting counterrevolutionary struggles.

Congratulations to Evgeny Finkel for earning Honorable Mention for the Theda Skocpol Prize for Emerging Scholars in Comparative Politics from the American Political Science Association.

Save the date! PONARS Eurasia Annual Fall Policy Conference, Friday, September 30, 2022: Agenda & Registration