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Quotes of the Day:
"The US, and the free world, are on the defensive. Our policy as a nation has been reactive; that is, we have waited to act until forced by events to do so, rather than anticipating events and being ready to take action when they arrived."
– Murray Dyer, 1959\
“No one should be ashamed to admit they are wrong, which is but saying, in other words, that they are wiser today than they were yesterday.”
- Alexander Pope
"Give not advice without being asked, and when desired, do it briefly."
- George Washington
1. North Korea Adopts New Law Hardening Its Nuclear Doctrine
2. N. Korea says it will never give up nukes to counter US
3. Nuclear Notebook: How many nuclear weapons does North Korea have in 2022?
4. Republic of Korea Chuseok Holiday - United States Department of State
5. Overseas S. Korean troops send public messages for Chuseok holiday
6. Analysis: Kim Jong Un's 'decapitation' fears shine through in new N.Korea nuclear law
7. N. Korea celebrates state founding anniversary with large ceremony
8. North Korea codifies right to launch preemptive nuclear strikes
9. U.S. supports inter-Korean dialogue, remains ready for talks with N. Korea; State Dept.
10. S. Korea's COVID-19 cases below 70,000 on 1st day of Chuseok holiday
11. U.S. seizes $30 million in cryptocurrency from North Korea-linked hackers
12. Admitting North Korea to 'nuclear club'
13. N. Korean market stall fees have doubled in the space of a year
1. North Korea Adopts New Law Hardening Its Nuclear Doctrine
Is anyone surprised? This seems to be an attempt by the regime to "normalize" itself as a nuclear state and give the appearance that it is acting as a responsible member of the international community (and the "nuclear club")
North Korea Adopts New Law Hardening Its Nuclear Doctrine
nytimes.com · September 9, 2022
The law authorizes a nuclear strike if an enemy tries to remove Kim Jong-un from power, the North’s state media reported.
Kim Jong-un, North Korea’s leader, said Thursday that there would “no longer be any bargaining over our nuclear power,” according to state media, which released this photo. Credit...Korean Central News Agency, via Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
SEOUL — North Korea has adopted a new law that says the country will launch a nuclear attack if the United States or South Korea tries to remove its leader, Kim Jong-un, from power, state media reported on Friday.
The law was passed by North Korea’s rubber-stamp Parliament, the Supreme People’s Assembly, on Thursday, according to the North’s official Korean Central News Agency. The assembly, convened in time for the 74th anniversary of the North’s founding on Friday, was used as a venue for Mr. Kim to lay out his evolving nuclear policy.
The new law says that North Korea will launch a nuclear strike “automatically and immediately” if the command and control system for its nuclear forces is put in danger, an apparent reference to Mr. Kim’s leadership.
The law also says that while North Korea’s nuclear arsenal is primarily a war deterrent, the weapons can also be used if an attack with weapons of mass destruction — or a non-nuclear attack against the North’s leadership — is launched or is imminent. They can also be used to prevent “the expansion and protraction of a war,” the law says, according to the state media report.
In an apparent warning to South Korea, the law also says that North Korea will not use nuclear weapons against states that do not have them, unless such a state attacks the North “in collusion” with another nuclear power — presumably including the United States, the South’s military ally.
In recent months, North Korea has indicated that it planned to adopt a more aggressive nuclear doctrine. In a speech delivered at a military parade in April, Mr. Kim vowed to expand the North’s nuclear arsenal “at the fastest possible speed,” saying that it was not merely a deterrent but could be used “if any forces try to violate the fundamental interests of our state.”
With the new law, North Korea sets that doctrine into legislation. Doing so makes clear that “there will no longer be any bargaining over our nuclear power,” Mr. Kim said in a speech delivered at the Supreme People’s Assembly on Thursday.
Mr. Kim said the North would not give up its nuclear weapons unless there was a change in the “political and military environment around the Korean Peninsula,” which he said had compelled the North to develop the arsenal. He said there would be “absolutely no denuclearization, no negotiation and no bargaining chip to trade,” according to the state media report on Friday.
The announcement, with its threatened response to any attempt to remove Mr. Kim, reflects North Korea’s growing confidence in its nuclear arsenal, said Cheong Seong-chang, director of the Center of North Korean Studies at the Sejong Institute in South Korea.
During his election campaign this year, South Korea’s conservative president, Yoon Suk-yeol, cited a pre-emptive military attack as an option for dealing with North Korea’s nuclear threat.
“Now that North Korea has made it clear in a law that it can use nuclear weapons, even in response to an attack involving non-nuclear weapons, we cannot rule out the possibility that an accidental military clash on the Korean Peninsula might lead to the use of nuclear weapons,” Mr. Cheong said.
Mr. Kim’s increasingly aggressive nuclear doctrine suggests that if the North were to return to negotiations with Washington, the country would “frame them as discussions about mutual security guarantees rather than about denuclearization,” said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.
Since taking power a decade ago, Mr. Kim has focused on building the North’s nuclear arsenal, calling it a “treasured sword” that protects the country from foreign invasion. Under Mr. Kim, North Korea has conducted four underground nuclear tests and numerous missile launches, including ones involving intercontinental ballistic missiles, in violation of international sanctions.
According to newly declassified American intelligence, the country has also been selling millions of artillery shells and rockets to Russia for its war in Ukraine, which Mr. Kim has vocally supported.
North Korea halted all nuclear and ICBM tests in 2018 to set the stage for the summit meetings between Mr. Kim and President Donald J. Trump. Mr. Kim hoped to secure an end to the sanctions that have been devastating his economy for years, but the unprecedented talks ended with no agreement on dismantling the North’s nuclear program or lifting the sanctions.
In the past, North Korea has used its nuclear weapons as a tool to bring Washington to the negotiating table. By that logic, the more powerful the arsenal, the more leverage Mr. Kim has. But since his diplomacy with Mr. Trump collapsed, Mr. Kim has vowed to find a “new way” to deal with Washington.
This year, he started testing a variety of new missiles, urging his people to prepare for a standoff with the United States “for a long period of time.”
nytimes.com · September 9, 2022
2. N. Korea says it will never give up nukes to counter US
While this is externally or internationally focused this is also important for domestic messaging. The regime has to create the threat from the US. (and the South) in order to provide the Korean people in the north the justification for their continued sacrifices and suffering. And we should keep in mind that the people are suffering because of Kim's deliberate decision making to prioritize nuclear weapons, missiles, and advanced military capabilities over the welfare of the people.
N. Korea says it will never give up nukes to counter US
AP · by KIM TONG-HYUNG · September 8, 2022
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — North Korean leader Kim Jong Un stressed his country will never abandon the nuclear weapons it needs to counter the United States, which he accused of pushing to weaken the North’s defenses and eventually collapse his government, state media said Friday.
Kim made the comments during a speech Thursday at North Korea’s rubber-stamp parliament, where members passed legislation governing the use of nuclear weapons, which Kim described as a step to cement the country’s nuclear status and make clear such weapons will not be bargained.
The law spells out conditions where North would be inclined to use its nuclear weapons, including when it determines that its leadership is facing an imminent “nuclear or non-nuclear attack by hostile forces.” The law requires North Korea’s military to “automatically” execute nuclear strikes against enemy forces, including their “starting point of provocation and the command,” if Pyongyang’s leadership comes under attack.
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The law also says North Korea could use nukes to prevent an unspecified “catastrophic crisis” to its government and people, a loose definition that experts say reflect an escalatory nuclear doctrine that could create greater concerns for neighbors.
Kim also criticized South Korea over its plans to expand its conventional strike capabilities and revive large-scale military exercises with the United States to counter the North’s growing threats, describing them as a “dangerous” military action that raises tensions.
Kim has made increasingly provocative threats of nuclear conflict toward the United States and its allies in Asia, also warning that the North would proactively use its nuclear weapons when threatened. His latest comments underscored the growing animosity in the region as he accelerates the expansion of his nuclear weapons and missiles program.
“The purpose of the United States is not only to remove our nuclear might itself, but eventually forcing us to surrender or weaken our rights to self-defense through giving up our nukes, so that they could collapse our government at any time,” Kim said in the speech published by the North’s official Korean Central News Agency.
“Let them sanction us for 100 days, 1,000 days, 10 years or 100 years,” Kim said. “We will never give up our rights to self-defense that preserves our country’s existence and the safety of our people just to temporarily ease the difficulties we are experiencing now.”
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Kim also addressed domestic issues, saying North Korea would begin its long-delayed rollout of COVID-19 vaccines in November. He didn’t specify how many doses it would have, where they would come from, or how they would be administered across his population of 26 million people.
GAVI, the nonprofit that runs the U.N.-backed COVAX distribution program, said in June it understood North Korea had accepted an offer of vaccines from China. GAVI said at the time the specifics of the offer were unclear.
North Korea rejected previous offers by COVAX, likely because of international monitoring requirements, and has also ignored U.S. and South Korean offers of vaccines and other COVID-19 aid.
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Kim last month declared victory over COVID-19 and ordered preventive measures eased just three months after his government for the first time acknowledged an outbreak. Experts believe the North’s disclosures on its outbreak are manipulated to help Kim maintain absolute control.
The North Korean report about Kim’s speech came a day after South Korea extended its latest olive branch, proposing a meeting with North Korea to resume temporary reunions of aging relatives separated by the 1950-53 Korean War, which were last held in 2018.
Experts say it’s highly unlikely North Korea would accept the South’s offer considering the stark deterioration in inter-Korean ties amid the stalemate in larger nuclear talks between Washington and Pyongyang. The U.S.-North Korean diplomacy derailed in 2019 over disagreements in exchanging the release of crippling sanctions against the North and the North’s denuclearization steps.
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Kim was combative toward South Korea in Thursday’s speech and urged his country to expand the operational roles of its tactical nuclear weapons and accelerate their deployment to strengthen the country’s war deterrent. Those comments appeared to align with a ruling party decision in June to approve unspecified new operational duties for front-line troops, which analysts say likely include plans to deploy battlefield nuclear weapons targeting rival South Korea along their tense border.
Cheong Seong Chang, a senior analyst at South Korea’s Sejong Institute, said Kim’s comments and the new North Korean law amount to a warning that it would launch immediate nuclear strikes on the United States and South Korea if they ever attempt to decapacitate Pyongyang’s leadership.
The North is also communicating a threat that it could use its nuclear weapons during conflicts with South Korea’s conventional forces, which would raise the risk of accidental clashes escalating into a nuclear crisis, Cheong said.
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North Korea has been speeding its development of nuclear-capable, short-range missiles that can target South Korea since 2019. Experts say its rhetoric around those missiles communicates a threat to proactively use them in warfare to blunt the stronger conventional forces of South Korea and the United States. About 28,500 U.S. troops are stationed in the South to deter aggression from the North.
The U.S.-led diplomatic push to defuse the nuclear standoff has been further complicated by an intensifying U.S.-China rivalry and Russia’s war on Ukraine, which deepened the divide in the U.N. Security Council, where Beijing and Moscow have blocked U.S. efforts to tighten sanctions on Pyongyang over its revived long-range missile tests this year.
Kim has dialed up weapons tests to a record pace in 2020, launching more than 30 ballistic weapons, including the first demonstrations of his intercontinental ballistic missiles since 2017.
U.S. and South Korean officials say Kim may up the ante soon by ordering the North’s first nuclear test in five years as he pushes a brinkmanship aimed at forcing Washington to accept the idea of the North as a nuclear power and negotiating concessions from a position of strength.
Experts say Kim is also trying to strengthen his leverage by strengthening his cooperation with China and Russia in an emerging partnership aimed at undercutting U.S. influence.
North Korea has repeatedly blamed the United States for the crisis in Ukraine, saying the West’s “hegemonic policy” justified Russian military actions in Ukraine to protect itself. U.S. officials said this week the Russians are in the process of purchasing North Korean ammunition, including artillery shells and rockets, to ease their supply shortages in the war against Ukraine.
North Korea also has joined Russia and Syria as the only nations to recognize the independence of two pro-Russia breakaway territories in eastern Ukraine and has discussed send its construction workers to those regions to work on rebuilding.
AP · by KIM TONG-HYUNG · September 8, 2022
3. Nuclear Notebook: How many nuclear weapons does North Korea have in 2022?
A very comprehensive report that can be accessed here: https://thebulletin.org/premium/2022-09/nuclear-notebook-how-many-nuclear-weapons-does-north-korea-have-in-2022/?utm_source=pocket_mylist
Nuclear Notebook: How many nuclear weapons does North Korea have in 2022?
By Hans M. Kristensen, Matt Korda, September 8, 2022
Editor’s note: The Nuclear Notebook is researched and written by Hans M. Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project with the Federation of American Scientists, and Matt Korda, a senior research associate with the project. The Nuclear Notebook column has been published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists since 1987. This issue examines North Korea’s nuclear arsenal. The authors cautiously estimate that North Korea may have produced enough fissile material to build between 45 and 55 nuclear weapons; however, it may have only assembled 20 to 30. This article is freely available in PDF format in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ digital magazine (published by Taylor & Francis) at this link. To cite this article, please use the following citation, adapted to the appropriate citation style: Hans M. Kristensen & Matt Korda (2022) North Korean nuclear weapons, 2022, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 78:5, 273-294, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00963402.2022.2109341. To see all previous Nuclear Notebook columns, click here.
Hans M. Kristensen
Kristensen is the director of the Nuclear Information Project with the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) in Washington, DC. His work focuses on... Read More
Matt Korda, FAS
Matt Korda
Matt Korda is a Senior Research Associate and Project Manager for the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, where... Read More
North Korea has made significant advances over the past two decades in developing a nuclear weapons arsenal. It has detonated six nuclear devices—one with a yield of well over 100 kilotons—and test-flown a variety of new ballistic missiles, several of which may be capable of delivering a nuclear warhead to targets in Northeast Asia and potentially in the United States and Europe. However, there is considerable uncertainty about which of North Korea’s missiles have been fielded with an active operational nuclear capability.
It is widely assumed that North Korea has operational nuclear warheads for its short-range and medium-range missiles. However, it is unclear whether it has managed to develop fully functioning nuclear warheads that can be delivered by intercontinental ballistic missiles and, following violent atmospheric re-entry, detonate as planned. That said, even though North Korea has not yet publicly demonstrated a capability to deliver a functioning nuclear re-entry vehicle on a long-range ballistic missile does not necessarily indicate that it is not working on developing one or could not field one without publicly demonstrating it. It is clear from its development efforts and public statements that North Korea ultimately intends to field an operational nuclear arsenal capable of holding regional and US targets at risk.
In 2021, Kim Jong-un announced several key strategic goals for North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, including (1) “push[ing] ahead with the production of super-sized nuclear warheads;” (2) “mak[ing] nuclear weapons smaller and lighter for more tactical uses;” (3) “raising the rate of precision good enough to strike and annihilate any strategic targets within a range of 15,000 kilometres [about 9,320 miles] with pinpoint accuracy;” (4) “develop[ing] and introduc[ing] hypersonic gliding flight warheads in a short period;” (5) “push[ing] ahead with the development of solid-fuel engine-propelled intercontinental, underwater, and ground ballistic rock- ets as scheduled;” and (6) “possess[ing] a nuclear-powered submarine and an underwater-launch nuclear strategic weapon” (Korean Central News Agency 2021).
These strategic goals were introduced in the context of a proposed five-year plan, and North Korea already appears to have made significant progress within its first year-and-a-half of implementation.
Due to the lack of clarity surrounding North Korea’s nuclear program, agencies and officials of the US intelligence community, as well as military commanders and nongovernmental experts, struggle to assess the program’s characteristics and capabilities. As a result, this paper relies upon publicly available information and satellite imagery about North Korea’s fissile material production, nuclear posture, and delivery vehicle development, and uses multiple sources of data whenever possible to corroborate conclusions. We cautiously estimate that North Korea might have produced sufficient fissile material to build 45 to 55 nuclear weapons and might have assembled 20 to 30 warheads for delivery primarily by medium-range ballistic missiles—a small increase since our last report in July 2021 (Kristensen and Korda 2021).
North Korea’s nuclear policy
For decades, North Korea has made numerous statements about its nuclear weapons policy and signals laying out its nuclear doctrine if deterrence fails. In 1997, a former North Korean official in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs testified before the US Senate that:
“as early as 1965, Kim Il-sung had said that North Korea should develop rockets and missiles to hit U.S. forces inside Japan. And regarding the U.S. forces inside South Korea [. . .] it is a well-known fact that North Korea will use short-range missiles and other missiles and rockets in order to have casualties of somewhere between 10,000 to 20,000, and even more casualties in the side of U.S. forces in order to have anti-war sentiments to rise inside the United States and cause the withdrawal of U.S. forces in the time of war” (Young-Hwan 1997).
The 2013 “Law on Consolidating the Position of Nuclear Weapons State”—one of the most recent official documents pertaining to North Korea’s nuclear doctrine—suggests a similar goal, noting that North Korea’s nuclear arsenal would only be used “to repel invasion or attack from a hostile nuclear weapons state and make retaliatory strikes” (Korean Central News Agency 2013). This doctrine would appear to bear similarities to Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine, which emphasizes using tactical nuclear weapons at the outset of a conflict to repel a superior Indian conventional invasion force (Kidwai Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Khalid 2020). More recently, North Korea’s declared aspirational development of new types of tactical nuclear delivery systems appears intended to strengthen its regional deterrence posture (National Committee on North Korea 2021; Korean Central News Agency 2022). Some experts have suggested that such a posture might involve some degree of pre-delegating nuclear launch authority down the chain of command (Narang and Panda 2017; 38 North 2022). But North Korea’s nuclear command and control system is largely unknown, and it is unclear whether North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, would be comfortable with handing over control of nuclear weapons to the military.
Increased focus on tactical nuclear weapons—certainly pre-delegation of launch authority—would appear to dilute the country’s no-first-use policy, which was officially declared following North Korea’s fourth nuclear test in 2016. Since then, North Korea has added a caveat to its policy by suggesting that it would not “be the first to use nuclear weapons [. . .] as long as the hostile forces for aggression do not encroach upon its sovereignty” (Korean Central News Agency 2016a). Subsequent statements have also included such caveats; during the 75th anniversary of the ruling Korean Workers’ Party in October 2020, Kim Jong-un stated that North Korea’s nuclear deterrent “will never be used preemptively. But if, and if [sic], any forces infringe upon the security of our state and attempt to have recourse to military force against us, I will enlist all our most powerful offensive strength in advance to punish them” (38 North 2020).
Occasionally, North Korea—also known as the Democratic People’s Republic of North Korea, or DPRK—has explicitly mentioned or signaled which targets it intends to hit in the event of imminent invasion. A 2016 statement by the Supreme Command of the Korean People’s Army stated that the country would first target South Korea’s Blue House (its seat of government), then “the U.S. imperialist aggressor forces’ bases for invading the DPRK in the Asia-Pacific region and the U.S. mainland,” in that order (Korean Central News Agency 2016b). The statement does not explicitly mention nuclear use; however, it is strongly implied that nuclear weapons would be used for at least the second wave of attacks against targets related to the US/South Korea’s conventional invasion force. More recently, the January 2021 report of the 8th Congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea noted the goal of “making a preemptive and retaliatory nuclear strike by further raising the rate of precision good enough to strike and annihilate any strategic targets within a range of 15,000 kilometers [9,320 miles] with pinpoint accuracy” (National Committee on North Korea 2021). In this context, nuclear use (or the threat of nuclear use) with shorter- range missiles could potentially be used to “decouple” US military support from its regional allies in the Asia-Pacific region, by withholding strikes on US homeland targets during nuclear attacks on regional targets. Whether North Korea’s nuclear posture is advanced enough to support such a complex strategy is unknown.
At various times, North Korea has also threatened to launch nuclear weapons in response to more minor provocations, such as joint US-South Korean military exercises (Ellyatt 2016). However, despite these occasional inflammatory statements, it is highly likely that North Korea—as with other nuclear-armed states—would only use its nuclear weapons in extreme circumstances, particularly if the continued existence of the North Korean state and its political leadership were in jeopardy.
Continued at this link: https://thebulletin.org/premium/2022-09/nuclear-notebook-how-many-nuclear-weapons-does-north-korea-have-in-2022/?utm_source=pocket_mylist
4. Republic of Korea Chuseok Holiday - United States Department of State
Happy Chuseok to all our Korean friends.
Republic of Korea Chuseok Holiday - United States Department of State
state.gov · by Antony J. Blinken, Secretary of State
HomeOffice of the SpokespersonPress Releases...Republic of Korea Chuseok Holiday
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Republic of Korea Chuseok Holiday
Press Statement
September 8, 2022
On behalf of the United States of America, I wish the Korean people a joyous Chuseok holiday.
Over the past two years, there have been many difficulties, but as we face these challenges, I am reminded of the importance of our relationships remaining strong and resilient. This Chuseok, we give thanks for the longstanding friendship between our two countries and the ever-closer relations that we are building towards in the future.
The enduring U.S.-Republic of Korea Alliance is built on our shared belief in a democratic and free global order. Together, we will tackle emerging challenges throughout the Indo-Pacific region and the world. I am confident that our friendship will promote peace, security, and prosperity for our peoples and the global community.
On this happy occasion, I hope we can all use this time to strengthen our bonds with friends and family, as well as the linkages between our people.
state.gov · by Antony J. Blinken, Secretary of State
5. Overseas S. Korean troops send public messages for Chuseok holiday
The ROK military is deployed to various locations around the world.
Excerpt:
At the vanguard of the country's military diplomacy are more than 1,000 South Korean troops operating in many countries, mostly in conflict zones, for reconstruction, armistice monitoring and other peacekeeping missions.
Overseas S. Korean troops send public messages for Chuseok holiday | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · September 9, 2022
By Song Sang-ho
SEOUL, Sept. 9 (Yonhap) -- South Korean troops on peace missions in Lebanon, South Sudan and other countries have delivered public messages highlighting their security commitments on the front lines of "military diplomacy," as they marked the Chuseok fall harvest holiday.
The Joint Chiefs of Staff released the messages from overseas contingents, such as the Dongmyeong unit operating as part of the U.N. Interim Forces in Lebanon, the peacekeeping Habit unit in South Sudan, the anti-piracy Cheonghae unit in waters off Somalia and the Akh unit in the United Arab Emirates (UAE)
The messages were delivered ahead of the Chuseok holiday that falls on Saturday.
"All service members of our Dongmyeong unit will do our utmost to carry out the peacekeeping mission in Lebanon based on our pride in being representatives of South Korea," a unit member was quoted as saying.
First deployed to Lebanon in 2007, the Dongmyeong unit has engaged in various activities like providing medical, educational and other services to locals. Dongmyeong means east light in Korean.
Members of the Akh unit underscored their role as "military diplomats."
"On the back of your support, we have been doing our best for military cooperation with the UAE military and will fulfill our mission based on our pride in our role as representatives of South Korea, as well as military diplomats," an Ahk member said in a taped message released to the press.
Since its first deployment in 2011, the Akh unit has been tasked with various missions, such as training UAE troops and protecting Korean nationals in the region in case of emergencies. Akh means brother in Arabic.
Troops in South Sudan also looked full of confidence about their peace operations.
"On the basis of our citizens' backing, we are conducting a mission to help restore peace in South Sudan," a member of the Hanbit unit was quoted as saying. "We, as a single unit, will continue to complete our mission until our last day here."
Launched in 2013, the Hanbit unit has carried out reconstruction support activities, such as the construction and repairs of airports, roads and bridges. Hanbit means one bright light in Korean.
Navy personnel of the Cheonghae unit stressed their focus on improving maritime security "anywhere in the world."
"Though it's a little sad that we cannot reunite with our family during the holiday, we will be with our citizens in any part of the world where they need us," a unit member said in a video message.
Since its birth as Seoul's first overseas naval unit in 2009, the unit aboard a 4,400-ton destroyer has led a slew of operations to counter pirate attacks, escort South Korean and foreign ships, and rescue others in distress mostly in the Gulf of Aden. Cheonghae means blue sea in Korean.
At the vanguard of the country's military diplomacy are more than 1,000 South Korean troops operating in many countries, mostly in conflict zones, for reconstruction, armistice monitoring and other peacekeeping missions.
sshluck@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · September 9, 2022
6. Analysis: Kim Jong Un's 'decapitation' fears shine through in new N.Korea nuclear law
Perhaps Kim is afraid. Very afraid.
But we are about to play right into the regime's hands. One of the objectives of his new influence campaign will be to generate criticism in the ROK and within the alliance about the ROK's so-called "decapitation strategy." Critics fo the ROK an d the alliance will say the reason the regime is publicizing this new policy is because of he ROK's decapitation strategy. The blame (and justification) for the north's nuclear weapons rests on the rhetoric of the South and the alliance. There will be more calls for the alliance to provide security guarantees and one of the demands will be reduction and removal of US troops as well as an end to extended deterrence. We must not be duped by the regime's political warfare strategy that includes subverting the ROK and undermining the ROK/US alliance. We must get stronger and not make ourselves weaker.
Analysis: Kim Jong Un's 'decapitation' fears shine through in new N.Korea nuclear law
Reuters · by Josh Smith
SEOUL, Sept 9 (Reuters) - A new North Korean law calls for "automatic" nuclear launches if the country's leadership or command and control systems are threatened, underscoring leader Kim Jong Un's fears of a so-called "decapitation" strike, experts said.
In an updated nuclear policy law passed on Thursday, North Korea enshrined the right to use preemptive nuclear strikes to protect itself, with Kim saying the legislation makes the country's nuclear status "irreversible" and bars denuclearisation talks. read more
The law outlines when North Korea could use its nuclear weapons, including if there is an attack on the government's leadership or the nuclear command and control system.
"In case the command and control system over the state nuclear forces is placed in danger owing to an attack by hostile forces, a nuclear strike shall be launched automatically and immediately to destroy the hostile forces," the law states, according to state news agency KCNA.
Kim has "monolithic command" over the nuclear forces, but the law's wording may indicate that if he is killed, a senior official would be designated to authorize nuclear strikes, said Ankit Panda of the U.S.-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
"The basic idea here is to communicate to the United States and South Korea that decapitating the North Korean leadership would not spare them nuclear retaliation," he said, noting that there are precedents in other nuclear states, including the United States during the Cold War.
Both the United States and Russia have employed technical systems, including the Soviet Union's infamous "Dead Hand," designed to ensure nuclear retaliation even if leaders are killed.
For now, that sort of "fail deadly" system in North Korea seems unlikely, Panda said.
"I would expect, for the moment, the fail deadly system would rely on organizational steps: for instance, the First Secretary of the Workers’ Party could confirm that Kim Jong Un had been killed in the course of a conflict, thereby authorizing the release of nuclear weapons," he said.
Although South Korea and the United States say they do not seek to change North Korea's government by force, both countries have war plans that imply strikes against Pyongyang's leadership.
Amid the "fire and fury" tensions of 2017 the Trump administration insisted it had no intention of launching a "bloody nose strike" against Kim, but had privately reviewed and updated war plans for a decapitation strike, according to a book by journalist Bob Woodward.
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, who took office in May, has publicly given new emphasis to the so-called "Kill Chain" system to counter a North Korean nuclear attack, and is pouring resources into boosting the weapons that would be used under such plans, including F-35A stealth fighters and missiles launched from submarines.
First developed a decade ago as North Korea ramped up its nuclear development, Kill Chain calls for preemptive strikes against the North's missiles and possibly its senior leadership if an attack appears imminent.
In his speech discussing the new law on Thursday, Kim cited Kill Chain and its related strategies by name, saying they justify North Korea's nuclear development.
"This would seemingly warn away any notions of 'bloody nose' strikes, assuming any administration contemplates that again," Rob York, director for regional affairs at the Hawaii-based Pacific Forum, said of the new law.
Reporting by Josh Smith. Editing by Gerry Doyle
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Reuters · by Josh Smith
7. N. Korea celebrates state founding anniversary with large ceremony
More wasted resources while the Korean people in the north suffer.
N. Korea celebrates state founding anniversary with large ceremony | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 이민지 · September 9, 2022
SEOUL, Sept. 9 (Yonhap) -- North Korea held a massive event celebrating its state founding anniversary, state media said Friday, in what was seen as efforts to strengthen unity following heavy floods and a self-proclaimed victory against COVID-19.
"The celebrations of the 74th founding anniversary of the DPRK were held with splendor at the foot of time-honored Mansu Hill in Pyongyang, where the statues of President Kim Il-sung and Chairman Kim Jong-il, the pioneer and leaders of the cause of building a socialist country, stand solemnly, on Thursday evening," the North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said. DPRK stands for the North's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
The ceremony, which featured paratroopers and an air show, was attended by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and his wife, Ri Sol-ju, according to the KCNA. It said Kim went up to the stage to encourage the performers and took photos with them.
North Korea is expected to hold more events marking the anniversary Friday evening.
The North usually holds big celebrations on every fifth or 10th anniversary of an important national holiday. This year's ceremony, which does not fall into this category, was seen as part of efforts to reinforce unity and provide encouragement to the public following heavy rains and the pandemic.
Pyongyang announced its first COVID-19 case on May 12 after claiming to be coronavirus-free for over two years. Since declaring victory over the virus, it has lifted a face mask mandate and eased antivirus curbs across the country.
mlee@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by 이민지 · September 9, 2022
8. North Korea codifies right to launch preemptive nuclear strikes
I give credit to Chad O'Carroll for this statement:
“Pyongyang is basically saying the only basis for future talks would be ones that recognize North Korea as a nuclear weapons state,” said Chad O’Carroll, chief executive of the Korea Risk Group. The regime’s nuclear doctrine poses a question to the Biden administration on whether it can keep its policy of dialogue with North Korea, he said.
North Korea codifies right to launch preemptive nuclear strikes
The Washington Post · by Min Joo Kim · September 9, 2022
SEOUL — North Korean leader Kim Jong Un declared his country would never relinquish its nuclear weapons, as the regime’s leadership codified in law its right to launch preemptive nuclear strikes, state media said Friday.
The North’s rubber-stamp parliament passed the law authorizing the military to use nuclear weapons “automatically and immediately” in case of an imminent attack against its leadership or “important strategic objects” in the country, the Korean Central News Agency said.
The law updates Pyongyang’s rules on when its nuclear arms can be used, including in response to an attack by weapons of mass destruction or in case of a “catastrophic crisis” that threatens the safety of the North Korean people. North Korea’s constitution already proclaims the country to be a nuclear weapons state.
“The utmost significance of legislating nuclear weapons policy is to draw an irretrievable line so that there can be no bargaining over our nuclear weapons,” Kim said in a speech to the Supreme People’s Assembly, the country’s titular parliament that passed the law Thursday.
North Korea conducted its first nuclear test in 2006, and since then has built up an arsenal of atomic weapons and missiles that can deliver warheads to the U.S. mainland. Officials in Seoul and Washington have warned that Pyongyang could soon resume nuclear tests for the first time since 2017, when the U.N. Security Council imposed economic sanctions on the regime in response to its weapons development.
In 2019, Kim had a second summit meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump and called for the lifting of sanctions in exchange for disarmament steps. But the talks in Hanoi broke down due to disagreements over sanctions relief, and negotiations between Pyongyang and Washington have made little headway since.
In recent months, North Korea has ramped up tensions by conducting additional weapons tests, including one of a long-range missile earlier this year. The regime has spurned the Biden administration’s repeated offer to sit down for nuclear talks “anywhere, anytime.”
“Pyongyang is basically saying the only basis for future talks would be ones that recognize North Korea as a nuclear weapons state,” said Chad O’Carroll, chief executive of the Korea Risk Group. The regime’s nuclear doctrine poses a question to the Biden administration on whether it can keep its policy of dialogue with North Korea, he said.
Kim also addressed domestic issues in the parliamentary speech, saying that North Korea would roll out a vaccine program in November for the first time since the beginning of the pandemic. He did not mention the coronavirus and referred only to battling a “malicious virus.” And he did not give details on the type of vaccine or how doses will be administered.
Pyongyang has been ignoring offers of coronavirus aid from the United States, South Korea and international organizations. Gavi, a vaccine distribution network for the United Nations-backed Covax program, said in June that it “understands” North Korea had accepted coronavirus vaccines from China.
While increasing pressure against Washington, North Korea has been strengthening ties with China and Russia, its ideological and political allies. U.S. intelligence said this week that Russia is buying rockets and artillery shells from North Korea as it wages war against Ukraine.
“North Korea likely sees a world that is bending towards its ideals rather than away from it, and that now is the time to make it official that its nuclear weapons are here to stay,” said Karl Friedhoff, a fellow at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.
The Washington Post · by Min Joo Kim · September 9, 2022
9. U.S. supports inter-Korean dialogue, remains ready for talks with N. Korea; State Dept.
Better to jaw jaw than war war. But we must understand the regime's political warfare strategy and how it exploits negotiations for it own ends.
U.S. supports inter-Korean dialogue, remains ready for talks with N. Korea; State Dept. | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · September 9, 2022
By Byun Duk-kun
WASHINGTON, Sept. 8 (Yonhap) -- The United States strongly supports inter-Korean dialogue and itself remains open to talks with North Korea without any preconditions, a state department spokesperson said Thursday.
The remarks came after the South Korean unification ministry proposed holding talks with the North to discuss the issue of separated families.
"We strongly support inter-Korean cooperation and believe it can play an important role in creating a more stable environment on the Korean Peninsula," a state department spokesperson told Yonhap News Agency when asked about Seoul's proposal for inter-Korean talks.
"The United States remains open to dialogue with the DPRK on any issue and without precondition," the department official added.
Unification Minister Kwon Young-se publicly proposed talks with North Korea on the issue of families separated by the 1950-53 Korean War on Thursday (Seoul time).
Seoul said the North did not respond to its proposal as of late Thursday.
Pyongyang has remained unresponsive to overtures from Washington since U.S. President Joe Biden took office early last year.
It has also stayed away from denuclearization talks since late 2019.
bdk@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · September 9, 2022
10. S. Korea's COVID-19 cases below 70,000 on 1st day of Chuseok holiday
The real test is what they will be like in the weeks after Chuseok.
(LEAD) S. Korea's COVID-19 cases below 70,000 on 1st day of Chuseok holiday | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 이민지 · September 9, 2022
(ATTN: ADDS quotes by ministry official)
SEOUL, Sept. 9 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's COVID-19 pandemic continued its downward trend Friday, with daily cases falling below 70,000 on the first day of the Chuseok holiday despite no social distancing measures.
The country reported 69,410 new COVID-19 infections, including 277 cases from overseas, bringing the total caseload to 23,933,949, the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) said.
Friday's tally is down from 72,646 the previous day and the lowest for a Friday since 68,589 on July 22. Daily infections have slowed down after peaking at around 180,000 in mid-August in the latest virus resurgence.
South Korea added 68 COVID-19 deaths, up four from a day earlier, raising the death toll to 27,381.
The number of critically ill patients stood at 504, up 11 from the previous day.
The government has called for vigilance against the virus amid growing transmission risks, with heavy travel expected during the four-day Chuseok holiday that began Friday.
"The impact of the Chuseok holiday will begin to appear about three to four days after the holiday. The government will step up monitoring and check how situations change," health ministry official Sohn Young-rae told a press briefing.
Sohn, however, forecast the current downward trend to continue for the time being.
"There is a possibility that cases may rise to some extent, but a lot of people have been infected or are being immunized through vaccine shots. We believe the overall downward trend will sustain for some time."
Some 6,000 one-stop COVID-19 treatment centers will be open during the holiday to provide COVID-19-related medical services, including tests.
mlee@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 이민지 · September 9, 2022
11. U.S. seizes $30 million in cryptocurrency from North Korea-linked hackers
Good. We must aggressively defend against as well as attack the regime's all purpose sword.
U.S. seizes $30 million in cryptocurrency from North Korea-linked hackers
The seizures represent about 10% of the total funds stolen in March from Ronin Network, a sidechain built for the play-to-earn game Axie Infinity.
NBC News · by Reuters · September 8, 2022
The United States has seized over $30 million in cryptocurrency stolen by North Korean-linked hackers Lazarus from the popular online game Axie Infinity, crypto intelligence firm Chainalysis said on Thursday.
The company said in a blog post it played a role in the recovery with U.S. law enforcement and other crypto organizations, without naming them, in the first ever recovery of stolen cryptocurrency by a North Korea hacking group.
Chainalysis and North Korea’s mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to requests for comment. The FBI did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The seizures represent about 10% of the total funds stolen in March from Ronin Network, a sidechain built for the play-to-earn game Axie Infinity, Chainalysis said.
Ronin said in March hackers stole about $615 million in cryptocurrency.
“We estimate that so far in 2022, North Korea-linked groups have stolen approximately $1 billion of cryptocurrency from DeFi protocols,” Chainalysis said. He was referring to decentralized finance protocols, an umbrella term for financial services offered on public blockchains.
The U.S Department of Treasury in May sanctioned virtual currency mixer Blender, saying it was used in the laundering process for the Axie Infinity heist.
The Treasury Department in April also linked Lazarus to the attack.
NBC News · by Reuters · September 8, 2022
12. Admitting North Korea to 'nuclear club'
I was one of those who pushed back on this. But Lt Gen Clapper and I did agree on this statement: The only way we are going to see an end to the nuclear program and military threats as well as the human rights abuses and crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people living in the north by the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime is through achievement of unification and the establishment of a free and unified Korea that is secure and stable, non-nuclear, economically vibrant, and unified under a liberal constitutional form of government based on individual liberty, rule of law, and human rights as determined by the Korean people. A free and unified Korea or in short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK). See the video here. https://www.icasinc.org/2022/2022v/v220829a.html Our exchange is around the 53 minute mark but you should listen to the opening remarks of the first 10 minutes or so to get his initial views.
But it is coincidental that the regime announced its new nuclear "doctrine" this week. Of course it was timed with the party meetings and the foundation day so it was surely planned weeks if not months ago. But in a way it could be tinere=reated a s an answer to Lt Gen Clapper's comments especially in terms of trying to give the appearance that the north is acting as "responsible" nuclear state. I am sure the north Korean nuclear apologists will pick up on this new nuclear doctrine and assess the regime is acting responsibly.
Excerpts:
Clapper, to be sure, envisions quite a different scenario. "North Korea wants badly to be recognized as a member of the nuclear club," he said. Now the question is, "How could we induce the North Koreans to behave responsibly?" He called "strategic patience," a term that came into vogue during Obama's presidency and now seems to be President Biden's policy too, "a euphemism for exasperation."
To questions suggesting his views might be a little unrealistic given the total lack of communication between North Korea and either the U.S. or South Korea, Clapper said the current approach toward North Korea "is not succeeding." He insisted he was "trying to be pragmatic here" by asking, "What can we do to better influence North Korea's behavior?"
Clapper had no ready answer, though, when I asked where or how to begin as long as Kim Jong-un is not responding to messages from either the U.S. or South Korea and the relationships formed in his summits with the former presidents of South Korea and the U.S., Moon Jae-in and Donald Trump, had evaporated. He said he simply did not know.
Nor was there any guarantee that North Korea, if the U.S. said, "OK, we now recognize you as a member of the nuclear club," would say or do a thing in return. It's far from certain North Korea would rejoin the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, from which it withdrew in January 2003. Undoubtedly the North would stick by familiar demands for removal of U.S. and U.N. sanctions and reiterate calls for withdrawal of all American troops and bases from South Korea.
Admitting North Korea to 'nuclear club'
The Korea Times · September 8, 2022
By Donald Kirk
James Clapper, a retired air force lieutenant general who served two tours in South Korea and then as President Barack Obama's director of national intelligence from 2010 to 2017, has shocked a virtual forum by asking, rhetorically, if "our policy of demanding North Korean denuclearization is going to work."
The U.S. has been "imposing sanctions forever," said Clapper, who directed intelligence for the U.S. Forces Korea Command for two years in the 1980s and visited Pyongyang eight years ago to bring home two Americans who had been imprisoned there. "Our approach," he argued, "has not been successful."
Washington, he said, should accept the reality that North Korea should indeed be recognized as one of nine nuclear powers. To which he added, "Of course we should allow a North Korean presence in Washington" ― a liaison office in exchange for a similar U.S. office in Pyongyang.
Clapper's comments were largely at odds with others at the forum, conducted by the Institute for Corean-American Studies (ICAS) based in Philadelphia. An immediate question was whether facing the fact that North Korea will never give up its nuclear program would encourage others in the region also to "go nuclear." Both South Korea and Japan are widely believed to be ready to produce nuclear warheads any time they have a pretext or rationalization for doing so and Taiwan is also getting close to that distinction.
I also asked him whether Japanese conservatives, if North Korea were recognized as a member of the nuclear club, would get their way and manage to throw out Article 9 of Japan's post-war "peace constitution" banning Japanese forces from waging war overseas. He acknowledged the danger of "letting that genie out of the bottle," as I put it in my question, recognizing the potential for Japan's renaissance as a great military power.
For sure, adding all these countries to the nuclear club would mean that Northeast Asia has five of the nine nuclear powers when you include Russia, a nuclear menace from the Soviet days with more warheads than the United States, and China, far behind Russia in numbers of nukes but far head of North Korea. Then, when you add all the warheads that U.S. forces keep on planes, ships and bases in the Western Pacific, from Hawaii to Japan and Guam, and you can imagine a nuclear war erupting in which hundreds of millions would die.
Clapper, to be sure, envisions quite a different scenario. "North Korea wants badly to be recognized as a member of the nuclear club," he said. Now the question is, "How could we induce the North Koreans to behave responsibly?" He called "strategic patience," a term that came into vogue during Obama's presidency and now seems to be President Biden's policy too, "a euphemism for exasperation."
To questions suggesting his views might be a little unrealistic given the total lack of communication between North Korea and either the U.S. or South Korea, Clapper said the current approach toward North Korea "is not succeeding." He insisted he was "trying to be pragmatic here" by asking, "What can we do to better influence North Korea's behavior?"
Clapper had no ready answer, though, when I asked where or how to begin as long as Kim Jong-un is not responding to messages from either the U.S. or South Korea and the relationships formed in his summits with the former presidents of South Korea and the U.S., Moon Jae-in and Donald Trump, had evaporated. He said he simply did not know.
Nor was there any guarantee that North Korea, if the U.S. said, "OK, we now recognize you as a member of the nuclear club," would say or do a thing in return. It's far from certain North Korea would rejoin the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, from which it withdrew in January 2003. Undoubtedly the North would stick by familiar demands for removal of U.S. and U.N. sanctions and reiterate calls for withdrawal of all American troops and bases from South Korea.
"Declaring our policy is denuclearization and we're not going to do much unless you do that is a non-starter," Clapper observed. Fair enough, but what's going to work, short of the U.S. withdrawing from South Korea and leaving the South to the mercies not only of the North but also of China and maybe Russia?
Maybe there are no solutions other than shoring up defenses and hoping the South can go on living in peace and prosperity.
Donald Kirk (www.donaldkirk.com) writes from Seoul as well as Washington.
The Korea Times · September 8, 2022
13. N. Korean market stall fees have doubled in the space of a year
The regime is working to crush market activity because it is a threat to the regime. But the safety or relief valve for the people is being shut off, possibly permanently.
N. Korean market stall fees have doubled in the space of a year
With stall fees rising while business is bad, business people have no money left over at the end of the day, a source in Pyongyang told Daily NK
dailynk.com
FILE PHOTO: Street stalls in various agricultural regions of North Korea. (Daily NK)
Stall fees at some markets in North Korea have doubled within the past year, leading to discontent among many market sellers, Daily NK has learned.
According to multiple sources in North Korea on Monday, Daily NK learned that North Korean merchants pay market administrators anywhere from KPW 8,000 to KPW 20,000 or more in stall fees every day.
At the Ryonghung Market in Pyongyang’s Taesong District, sellers are paying at least KPW 8,000 a day in stall fees to the market management office, though the actual number depends on the location and size of the booth and what they are selling.
The sources say the stall fee at Ryonghung Market was KPW 4,500 just one year ago, but the basic tax has nearly doubled since then.
Markets in other regions are collecting stall fees on a similar basis.
In South Pyongan Province’s Onchon Market, near Nampo, merchants must pay an additional KPW 1,300 for every 10 centimeters they add to the standard 60-centimeter-by-100-centimeter stall.
Additionally, merchants pay different fees based on whether they sell foodstuffs or industrial goods, and among the latter, whether they sell daily necessities or home appliances. Generally speaking, merchants who sell foodstuffs like grains, fruits or vegetables pay only the basic stall fee, while those who sell home appliances, clothing and other industrial goods pay higher fees.
In particular, market management offices collect over KPW 5,000 or 6,000 more in fees for aisle booths, which are highly frequented and therefore preferred by merchants over corner booths.
The sources say because of this, merchants who sell industrial goods from aisle booths pay up to over KPW 20,000 in market taxes a day.
According to a source in Chagang Province, Kanggye Market charges fees based on whether merchants have a “half spot” or a “full spot.” Merchants who divide a single booth in half to use between them only pay the basic stall fee of KPW 8,000, while merchants who use a full booth or more pay between KPW 12,000 and KPW 15,000 a day.
Likewise, merchants who occupy prime real estate along the aisle or at the market entrance must pay KPW 4,000 more in fees.
Market management offices nationwide levy separate storage charges, adding to the financial burden merchants face.
In the case of Kanggye Market, the office charges daily, weekly and monthly storage fees. Depending on the bulk and number of items, daily storage fees start from KPW 50,000.
Merchants dealing in heavy, expensive industrial goods cannot bring their goods back and forth every day, so they usually pay a month of fees all at once. The source said merchants making big payments receive discounted rates.
With market management offices recently finding all sorts of reasons to raise fees, merchants are growing increasingly unhappy.
A source in South Pyongan Province said market management office policies differ market-to-market, but market managers in his region “are charging whatever they please.”
“Sometimes they even collect stall fees twice a day from people with aisle booths,” he said.
The source in Pyongyang said with stall fees rising while business is bad, merchants have no money left over at the end of the day.
“Since even market managers cannot make money with the continued [border] lockdown, cadres are filling their stomachs by raising stall fees,” he said.
Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.
Read in Korean
dailynk.com
De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Senior Advisor, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
VIDEO "WHEREBY" Link: https://whereby.com/david-maxwell
Phone: 202-573-8647
email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
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