Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

"Bigotry is the disease of ignorance, or morbid minds."

- Thomas Jefferson

"It's not only for unanswered questions that we seek knowledge but also for the examination of unquestioned answers."

- Anodea Judith, American author, therapist, and public speaker

(would this help with recruiting today?)

ARE YOU A COWARD? This is not for you. We badly need a brave man. He must be between 23 to 25 years old, in perfect health, at least six feet tall, weigh about 190 pounds, fluent in English with some French, proficient with all weapons, some knowledge of engineering and mathematics essential, willing to travel, no family or emotional ties, indomitably courageous and handsome of face and figure. Permanent employment, very high pay, glorious adventure, great danger. You must apply in person, 17, rue Dante, Nice, 2me etage, appt D."

- Robert A. Heinlein - Glory Road

1. Hwasong-18: The North Korean ICBM with 'Russian DNA'?

2. The Historic Camp David Summit – Overlooked Again: “JAROKUS” Seeks A Free and Unified Korea

3. South Korea and Japan Are Getting Closer. But Will It Last?

4. South Korea’s Yoon could be the weakest link in the next Korean War

5. North Korea's Kim lambasts premier over flooding, in a possible bid to shift blame for economic woes

6. #ROK: #Japan. Unexpected and unprecedented alliance in North Asia

7. US-Japan-Korea summit impressive first trilateral step

8. Man flees China on water scooter, crossing 200 miles of ocean to S. Korea

9. To make extra money, North Koreans pay big bribes for gold refinery jobs

10. Kim Jong Un’s Pandemic Power Faces Test as North

11. Yoon visits wartime bunker to monitor joint S. Korea-U.S. military exercise

12. PM says int'l lawsuit will be filed if Fukushima water release goes beyond standards

13. Hyesan clamps down on money changers

14. Korea Faces Diplomatic Challenges in New Cold War

15. N. Korea joins China trade fair in another sign of border reopening

16. S. Korea-U.S. nuclear agreement needs to be revised

17. State Department renews ban on use of US passports for travel to North Korea

18. New Seoul slogan leaves many city residents scratching their heads

1. Hwasong-18: The North Korean ICBM with 'Russian DNA'?

While others are having a food fight about whether or not the Russians helped the Koreans in the north develop the Hwasong 18, Dr. Bruce Bechtol asks the really important question in the conclusion.

Excerpts:

Even if the Russians helped the North Koreans build a missile based on the Topol-M ICBM (SS-27 Mod 2), it remains unclear how many advanced capabilities the Hwasong-18 would carry. But the North Koreans got this missile from somewhere, and it is highly unlikely they developed it on their own. This in itself may be the most troubling aspect of recent disclosures regarding its design and capabilities.

The inevitable question is, what to do about this? Sanctions are the obvious answer, especially on Russian entities. But perhaps the best solution is to beef up ballistic missile defense in the Asia-Pacific region. South Korea certainly needs to upgrade its current missile defense systems. It also needs closer integration with the United States and, if possible, Japan. Using BMD and other methods to shoot down these new North Korean systems, or cripple them before they can do harm, can and should be part of the focus of U.S., South Korean, and Japanese military planning, exercises, and acquisition in coming years. Failure to do so will allow the threat to grow.

Hwasong-18: The North Korean ICBM with 'Russian DNA'?

Even if the Russians helped the North Koreans build a missile based on the Topol-M ICBM (SS-27 Mod 2), it remains unclear how many advanced capabilities the Hwasong-18 would carry.

19fortyfive.com · by Bruce E. Bechtol Jr. · August 21, 2023

At the Trilateral Leaders’ Summit at Camp David in August, the leaders of the United States, Japan, and South Korea agreed to cooperate more fully on ballistic missile defense. To quote the document released by the White House, “The United States, Japan, and the ROK affirmed the decision to activate a data-sharing mechanism to exchange real-time missile warning data that would improve the detection and assessment of DPRK missile launches, building upon the commitment made by Leaders at their meeting in Phnom Penh last year.”

It seems the sides should get on that as quickly as possible. Research carried out by Theodore Postol for CSIS indicates that North Korea’s solid-fuel Hwasong-18 missile might be far more advanced, and a much greater threat, than most analysts assessed from its early testing. Why? It seems likely the North Koreans developed this missile with direct Russian technical and engineering assistance.

The Hwasong-18 shares a good number of characteristics with the Russian Topol-M ICBM (SS-27 Mod 2) — although the two are not exactly alike. The missiles have similar diameters, and they share comparable capabilities and flight paths.

But let’s address this from a practical view as well. It is highly improbable that the North Koreans by themselves came up with the solid-fuel technology and designs for an ICBM. They had to get help from somewhere, and they had to get the technology from somewhere, too. The similarities between the North Korean Hwasong-18 and the Russian Topol-M suggest Moscow as the provider. Given how fast this North Korean system rolled out, it is also unlikely that rogue scientists or engineers were responsible, as was the case with the Musudan missile based on the Russian R-27/SS-N-6.

Sudden Threat Over Korea

Over the past five years we have seen the North Koreans test and deploy several modern systems that elevate the threat on the Korean Peninsula. These include a North Korean copycat of the Iskander short-range ballistic missile, a weapon that in turn looks very much like the American MGM-140 ATACMS system. North Korea appears to be working to develop hypersonic capabilities for this missile, as well as long-range multiple rocket launchers that use guidance systems and can cover large swaths of the Korean Peninsula.

Where did these systems suddenly appear from? It is very likely that most of them came from the Russians. In fact, a review of sanctions against Russian entities and individuals over the past three years reveals several sanctions that deal directly with proliferation to North Korea (though the systems involved are not specified).

U.S. in the Crosshairs of the Hwasong-18

Most of the systems North Korea has tested or deployed over the past five years are designed for combat on the Korean Peninsula. The new Hwasong-18 clearly is not. North Korea would likely use this ICBM to attack the United States. Thus, is it possible that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un asked his Russian allies to equip him both with tactical systems for use on the Peninsula, and an ICBM that could credibly threaten the United States? If so, the North Koreans are pursuing serious measures to exacerbate the threat they pose to the U.S., South Korea, and Japan.

Depending on how many ballistic capabilities the Russians provided to the North Koreans — if the Hwasong-18 is in fact a missile based on Russian technology — this development could completely change the way the United States, South Korea, and Japan conduct ballistic missile defense. The Russian missile is capable of getting through U.S. BMD with modern countermeasures. It can also launch multiple thermonuclear warheads. Finally, it is a missile accurate enough to target specific neighborhoods.

A Response Is Needed

Even if the Russians helped the North Koreans build a missile based on the Topol-M ICBM (SS-27 Mod 2), it remains unclear how many advanced capabilities the Hwasong-18 would carry. But the North Koreans got this missile from somewhere, and it is highly unlikely they developed it on their own. This in itself may be the most troubling aspect of recent disclosures regarding its design and capabilities.

The inevitable question is, what to do about this? Sanctions are the obvious answer, especially on Russian entities. But perhaps the best solution is to beef up ballistic missile defense in the Asia-Pacific region. South Korea certainly needs to upgrade its current missile defense systems. It also needs closer integration with the United States and, if possible, Japan. Using BMD and other methods to shoot down these new North Korean systems, or cripple them before they can do harm, can and should be part of the focus of U.S., South Korean, and Japanese military planning, exercises, and acquisition in coming years. Failure to do so will allow the threat to grow.

Dr. Bruce E. Bechtol Jr. is a professor of Political Science at Angelo State University. He is also the president of the International Council on Korean Studies and a fellow at the Institute for Corean American Studies. The author of five books dealing with North Korea, his latest work is entitled North Korean Military Proliferation in the Middle East and Africa. Dr. Bechtol is a 19FortyFive Contributing Editor.

In this article:

Written By Bruce E. Bechtol Jr.

Bruce E. Bechtol, Jr. (Ph.D. Union Institute), is an award-winning professor of political science at Angelo State University and a retired Marine. He was formerly on the faculty at the Marine Corps Command and Staff College (2005–2010) and the Air Command and Staff College (2003–2005).

19fortyfive.com · by Bruce E. Bechtol Jr. · August 21, 2023

2. The Historic Camp David Summit – Overlooked Again: “JAROKUS” Seeks A Free and Unified Korea

My essay on the Summit.

The Historic Camp David Summit – Overlooked Again: “JAROKUS” Seeks A Free and Unified Korea

19fortyfive.com · by David Maxwell · August 22, 2023

On Aug. 18, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and the United States held a summit. The meeting itself was remarkable — few observers would have expected anything like it before the election in South Korea of President Yoon Suk Yeol. The summit fulfilled one of the major lines of effort of the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy: Expand U.S.- Japan-ROK cooperation.

The summit resulted in three incredibly substantive agreements. They aim to institutionalize security, economic, and diplomatic coordination and cooperation to ensure the long-term strength of this trilateral arrangement.

No Asian NATO but Enhanced Hub-and-Spoke

Some critics, notably China, decry the trilateral cooperation as a U.S. attempt to create an Asian NATO. That is not the intent. The reality is that the U.S. is reshaping its “hub and spoke” alliance structure into a networked framework. This features a number of expanded hubs while maintaining multiple bilateral connections, or spokes, throughout the region. There is AUKUS and the QUAD, plus NATO and the Asia Pacific Four, all of which can be considered hubs. This replaces a structure where the U.S. acts as the only hub, directing the spokes of bilateral alliances and partnerships. The arrangement enhances the security of like-minded democracies who seek to protect the rules-based international order from an axis of authoritarians comprising China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran.

Three Substantive Documents

Three main documents were promulgated at the summit. They are designed to establish the consultative framework, set forth the principles for cooperation, and provide a way ahead for what could be unofficially called “JAROKUS.”

The Commitment to Consult simply reinforces what is already codified in the ROK-U.S. and Japan-U. S. mutual defense treaties. Both treaties require consultation when faced with threats and call for each nation to follow its constitutional processes for action. There is no equivalent of NATO’s Article 5. The new commitment calls for high-level trilateral consultations.

The Camp David Principles is a commitment to “a free and open Indo-Pacific trilateral security cooperation … to promote and enhance peace and stability throughout the region.”

Finally, the Spirit of Camp David provides a framework for cooperation across the security, economic, and diplomatic domains. It commits to “a peaceful and prosperous future for our people, and the people of the Indo-Pacific.”

These documents are substantive and likely the result of the long, hard work of diplomats and national security professionals working for months to solidify a functional and lasting trilateral relationship. They cover a lot of ground, and the substance makes them more than aspirational.

Good But Not Complete Press Coverage

Generally, the press coverage has been positive, and much detailed analysis has been provided by national security experts and Korea watchers. However, as happened after the April 26 summit between Yoon and U.S. President Joe Biden, one key point in the documents has been overlooked. That is the statement that all three nations support “a unified Korean Peninsula that is free and at peace.” While this could be expected from Biden and Yoon, it is very significant that Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida agreed with a free and unified Korea — an end result that should be described as an acceptable, durable, political arrangement that will sustain, protect, and advance the interests of all three nations.

Some may consider this statement a throwaway, an aspiration not meant to be taken seriously. However, it is enshrined in two key summit documents. It reflects a shared realization that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is unlikely to end his nuclear program. Therefore, rather than insisting that denuclearization must come before unification, South Korea, with the support of Japan and the U.S., should pursue unification as the path to ending the threat from North Korea and halting Pyongyang’s crimes against its own people.

A New Trilateral Path Forward

JAROKUS has an opportunity now to build on the summit and develop a new strategy for the Korean peninsula. That strategy must be based on a human-rights-upfront approach, an information and influence campaign, and the pursuit of a free and unified Korea, as described by a working group led by Ambassador Robert Joseph.

Although denuclearization of the North remains a worthy goal, it will not happen so long as the Kim family remains in power. Kim’s political warfare and blackmail diplomacy strategies completely failed in 2022 because Yoon and Biden, like their predecessors, refused to make the political and economic concessions he demanded just to come to the negotiating table — namely to remove sanctions. Now it is time for Seoul, Tokyo, and Washington to execute a political warfare strategy that flips the conventional wisdom and seeks unification first.

The only way to end North Korea’s nuclear program and its human rights abuses is through unification of the Korean peninsula. Following the Camp David Summit, JAROKUS can maintain the highest state of military readiness to deter war. They can then pair a human-rights-upfront approach with a comprehensive information activities campaign to focus on Korean unification. The approach must aim at securing a stable, non-nuclear, economically vibrant Korean Peninsula unified under a liberal, constitutional form of government based on freedom, individual liberty, free market principles, the rule of law, and human rights as determined by the Korean people. It must be a free and unified Korea — a United Republic of Korea.

David Maxwell, a 1945 Contributing Editor, is a retired US Army Special Forces Colonel who has spent more than 30 years in Asia and specializes in North Korea and East Asia Security Affairs and irregular, unconventional, and political warfare. He is the Vice President of the Center for Asia Pacific Strategy and the editor of Small Wars Journal. He is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation of Defense of Democracies and the Global Peace Foundation (where he focuses on a free and unified Korea).

19fortyfive.com · by David Maxwell · August 22, 2023

3. South Korea and Japan Are Getting Closer. But Will It Last?

Dr. Robert Kelly provides a thoughtful but negative prognosis.

Excerpts:

This is Not Sustainable

Needless to say, this configuration of disinterested insouciance is not sustainable in a democracy, nor is it a solid foundation on which to build trilateralism. If a leftist wins the South Korean presidency in 2027, all that Yoon has done regarding Japan will fall apart. If Yoon forges ahead with further pro-Japan moves without public support, he will eventually face opposition in the streets. Yoon at least ought to make an effort to convince South Koreans about the benefits of his Japan outreach, but even that is beyond him. He has made few speeches addressing the topic and has released no major position paper on South Korea-Japan rapprochement.

South Korean reconciliation with Japan will not hold if it is solely a creature of presidential indulgence. U.S. and Japanese officials betting on a strategic shift in South Korean priorities should realize how provisional this actually is.

South Korea and Japan Are Getting Closer. But Will It Last?

South Korean reconciliation with Japan will not hold if it is solely a creature of presidential indulgence. U.S. and Japanese officials betting on a strategic shift in South Korean priorities should realize how provisional this actually is.

19fortyfive.com · by Robert Kelly · August 21, 2023

Last Friday, U.S. President Joe Biden convened a summit at Camp David with his Japanese and South Korean counterparts. They appear to have gotten on well, and the summit has been hailed as a success.

And indeed, it is a success. Japan and South Korea were barely engaging each other just a few years ago. Deep disagreements over the interpretation of Japanese colonial behavior in Korea last century had frozen ties between the two countries. Biden deserves credit for helping the two sides move beyond their dispute in order to work on the security challenges of East Asia — namely, China’s rise and North Korea’s nuclear missile program.

The East Asian regional pressures driving the three countries together are real, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has further unnerved everyone. There is a lot of anxiety that invasion might serve as a template for a Chinese attack on Taiwan. North Korea’s nuclear weapons and missiles are a perpetual source of nerves, and the strategic logic for Japan and South Korea to cooperate on Pyongyang is obvious. They are both neighbors with North Korea and are routinely threatened by it.

More broadly, rising Chinese power creates anxiety. China is a militarily powerful autocracy, with a large economy, run by a paranoid dictator. It has used its trade relationships in East Asia as coercive leverage. Japan and South Korea want to trade with China, but they do not want to be dominated by it.

The Change in South Korean Domestic Politics

These structural pressures have been around for a while, so they do not explain why the summit happened now. That has more to do with South Korean domestic politics, specifically the victory of a conservative candidate, Yoon Suk-yeol, in South Korea’s presidential election last year.

South Korea has been alienated from Japan for decades, and its concerns are still there — the stories of so-called comfort women during the war, the nationalist competition with Japan, and anger over Japan’s history curriculum about colonialism. Indeed, there is a huge focus on the colonial period in South Korean education as well as its pop culture. Yoon’s appearance at Camp David is not a product of a structural shift in South Korean foreign policy beliefs or public opinion.

It is, instead, due almost entirely due to Yoon himself, and this is why the trilateral spirit of Camp David is far more fragile than many U.S. analysts seem to realize. Yoon’s approval rating hovers around the mid-30s, and that low number is widely attributed to his pro-Japan foreign policy. Back home, Yoon stands nearly alone in his views on Japan.

South Korea’s Imperial Presidency

South Korean public opinion — and certainly its opposition-dominated legislature — do not approve of Yoon’s pro-Japan stance. But Yoon is in a unique position to ignore this.

South Korea has a very powerful presidency — what political scientists call an imperial presidency. This gives Yoon wide autonomy, especially in foreign policy. He can simply ignore South Korean stakeholders such as the public, the legislature, and the Seoul-based foreign policy community. He can forge ahead with his pro-Japanese foreign policy, and that is what he is doing.

This institutional freedom to freelance on Japan policy is coupled to a unique insouciance about the consequences of that policy. Yoon is not a traditional product of South Korean politics. He is a genuine outsider; the presidency is the first elected office he has held. He is not a committed party man or a professional politician. He is not tied into Seoul’s factions and party structures. The result is that he does not feel as much blowback for his pro-Japan stance as most South Korean politicians would.

Yoon is also 62 years old. He is term-limited to one term, which ends in 2027, and has no obvious post-presidential career.

In short, Yoon is institutionally insulated by South Korea’s imperial presidency from his poor approval rating and opposition resistance. He can do, in foreign policy, almost whatever he wants.

This has led to the weird outcome where Yoon is running a foreign policy in the face of widespread domestic opposition. He does not have to care about that opposition, and indeed he does not.

This is Not Sustainable

Needless to say, this configuration of disinterested insouciance is not sustainable in a democracy, nor is it a solid foundation on which to build trilateralism. If a leftist wins the South Korean presidency in 2027, all that Yoon has done regarding Japan will fall apart. If Yoon forges ahead with further pro-Japan moves without public support, he will eventually face opposition in the streets. Yoon at least ought to make an effort to convince South Koreans about the benefits of his Japan outreach, but even that is beyond him. He has made few speeches addressing the topic and has released no major position paper on South Korea-Japan rapprochement.

Dr. Robert E. Kelly (@Robert_E_Kelly; RoberEdwinKelly.com) is a professor in the Department of Political Science at Pusan National University and 19FortyFive Contributing Editor.

19fortyfive.com · by Robert Kelly · August 21, 2023

4. South Korea’s Yoon could be the weakest link in the next Korean War

I do not agree with this hit job.

Excerpts:

In short, Yoon devotes no time or effort to bridging political divides or learning diplomacy.

If war breaks out tomorrow in the Korean peninsula, Biden will need Yoon’s assistance. However, even though he claims that he is willing to fight, Yoon would have trouble mobilizing his nation due to his far-right politics and historically low approval ratings, which are around 23 percent.

In contrast to Yoon’s failing leadership style, Japan’s Kishida has indicated that he would quickly come to South Korea’s aid with the full force of his military.

Hopefully, Biden understands that he must encourage Kishida to help Yoon navigate evolving foreign policy challenges. If not, Yoon, who acts like he has outsourced his national defense to the U.S., will remain a liability for Biden in coming years.

South Korea’s Yoon could be the weakest link in the next Korean War

BY SEUNG-WHAN CHOI, OPINION CONTRIBUTOR - 08/21/23 7:00 AM ET

https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/4158145-south-koreas-yoon-will-be-the-weakest-link-in-the-next-korean-war/

AP Photo/Susan Walsh, File

FILE – U.S. President Joe Biden, left, talks with Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, right, ahead of a trilateral meeting on the sidelines of the G7 Summit in Hiroshima, Japan, May 21, 2023.

President Joe Biden hosted Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol for a summit last week. The Camp David meeting featured discussions of mutual security and economic interests.

The meeting came as North Korea was escalating tensions in the region. Recently, North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un launched a spy satellite and test-fired multiple intercontinental ballistic missiles that can reach Washington, D.C., in less than 30 minutes. He has been threatening more of the same while boasting about his nuclear capabilities.

Biden, Kishida and Yoon must cooperate to deter Kim from his goals to destabilize the region and threaten the world with nuclear weapons. If the three allies cannot deter him, he will continue to work with and be emboldened by China and Russia.

Kishida will be the right ally to help Biden counter Kim, but Yoon is likely to be a liability for Biden.

If a war is to ultimately happen, the most decisive factor in modern warfare has long been the resolve of the leader. In our modern times, numerically and militarily inferior forces have repeatedly shown their ability to fight and win, from Ho Chi Minh to Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky, who famously refused evacuation in the dark, early days of the Ukraine War.

Japan’s Kishida plans to drastically increase Japan’s defense spending by 2 percent of GDP by 2027. Biden was also no doubt relieved when Yoon, a pro-American candidate, was elected president of South Korea last year. Yoon also paid an official visit to Camp Humphreys, the headquarters of the 28,500 U.S. troops, about 43 miles south of Seoul. No other Korean president-elect had ever discussed security matters with foreign generals before his or her inauguration.

In addition, Yoon has openly stated, “The U.S. is a staunch ally of South Korea” and removed any possible obstacle to U.S. soldiers conducting battle drills in South Korea. He has also helped the U.S. step up surveillance over North Korea.

In exchange, Yoon wants Biden’s military might to be ready to fight against Kim’s challenges on his behalf.

Yet for the time being, Yoon has impeded his own country’s military preparedness. To win over younger voters during the presidential campaign, Yoon promised to triple private soldiers’ salaries. This has proven disastrous for the military, which now faces great difficulties in recruiting junior officers. These officers’ pay rates are now lower than that of private soldiers, and service obligations are much longer.

Today junior officers are the backbone of the military since they constitute a critical resource or means for executing military strategy. Without their professional, tactical and leadership skills, any war operation would be in jeopardy.

Yoon, a draft dodger himself, seems indifferent to the rapidly shrinking size of South Korea’s military force. The army maintains 490,000 soldiers, a spectacular 25 percent drop from its heyday. North Korea has 1.28 million soldiers.

Given that Seoul is technically still at war with Pyongyang due to a ceasefire agreement in 1953, Yoon needs to make up for the manpower shortage. Currently, he has no such plan.

Yoon may think American soldiers could fill that manpower gap, but he has made a poor case for it with his own leadership. In December, five North Korean drones crossed the heavily armed border into South Korean airspace for seven hours. One even flew near the Korean White House. Yoon dropped the ball and did not make any public appearances to address his fearful nation about this potential sign of an imminent invasion. He also failed to convene the National Security Council, which could have aided his country in this time of turmoil.

Three months ago, Pyongyang launched a spy satellite into space, which some experts believe could have been a nuclear missile. Shockingly, Yoon was nowhere to be found.

In contrast, Japan’s leadership responded ably. Kishida took charge and immediately called his security team to discuss the readiness of the Self-Defense Forces, even though the then-unidentified projectile was not flying over Japan.

Last July, a U.S. strategic nuclear ballistic missile submarine arrived in South Korea as a show of force against increasing military threats from North Korea. Yoon’s visit to this submarine was intended to convey solidarity with Biden. Instead, it frustrated many Koreans because it looked like a personal tour for Yoon and his wife.

Koreans questioned why they could not also receive such tours since Yoon and his wife were allegedly aboard the stealth ship for pleasure rather than official business. Koreans also wondered how the submarine could be deemed “stealthy” if Yoon let the North know exactly when and where it was docked.

Great leaders do not simply appear; they require the support of an entire nation. They inspire their citizens to fight enemies to the death. Therefore, it is crucial that they avoid the worst of partisan politics and build a united front.

Yet Yoon has ignored calls for bipartisanship, refusing to work with the opposition-party majority in Congress. He has also entertained far-right ideologies, selecting his secretary of Unification and the chairman of the Korean Communications Commission from among right-wing extremists.

In short, Yoon devotes no time or effort to bridging political divides or learning diplomacy.

If war breaks out tomorrow in the Korean peninsula, Biden will need Yoon’s assistance. However, even though he claims that he is willing to fight, Yoon would have trouble mobilizing his nation due to his far-right politics and historically low approval ratings, which are around 23 percent.

In contrast to Yoon’s failing leadership style, Japan’s Kishida has indicated that he would quickly come to South Korea’s aid with the full force of his military.

Hopefully, Biden understands that he must encourage Kishida to help Yoon navigate evolving foreign policy challenges. If not, Yoon, who acts like he has outsourced his national defense to the U.S., will remain a liability for Biden in coming years.

Seung-Whan Choi teaches Korean politics and International Relations at the University of Illinois at Chicago. A retired Army officer, he is also a distinguished author of four books and 53 journal articles.

5. North Korea's Kim lambasts premier over flooding, in a possible bid to shift blame for economic woes

Possible bid to shift blame? I think it's pretty definite a bid to shift it..

Excerpt:

Outside experts believe North Korea’s current food shortages and economic troubles have deepened due to draconian pandemic curbs, U.N. sanctions and North Korea’s own mismanagement. But there are no signs of an imminent famine or major public unrest that could threaten Kim’s grip on his 26 million people.

North Korea's Kim lambasts premier over flooding, in a possible bid to shift blame for economic woes

AP · August 22, 2023

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — North Korean leader Kim Jong Un severely rebuked his premier and other senior officials over what he called their irresponsible response to recent flooding of farmlands along the country’s western coast, state media reported Tuesday.

Summer floods in North Korea often cause serious damage to farmlands due to poor drainage and deforestation. Observers say Kim’s lambasting of top officials likely aims to shift blame to them for the country’s economic hardships and food insecurity, or could set the stage for a reshuffling of senior leadership.

Kim on Monday visited a western coastal tideland where seawater recently destroyed the embankment, flooding more than 270 hectares of rice paddies. After inspecting the situation, Kim accused officials of “very irresponsible neglect of duties,” according to the official Korean Central News Agency.

Kim criticized Premier Kim Tok Hun for showing “the attitude of an onlooker,” KCNA said. He berated the vice premier for failing to perform his duties faithfully, and he accused the director of the tideland reclamation bureau of concealing fuel oil that was supposed to be used for construction projects.

“In recent years the administrative and economic discipline of Kim Tok Hun’s Cabinet has become seriously out of order, and, consequently, the idlers are spoiling all the state economic work with an irresponsible work manner,” Kim Jong Un said, according to KCNA.

Kim called the recent flooding a man-made disaster, citing a botched construction project that was supposed to improve drainage in the area. Kim said the project went forward even though a substantial leak was discovered. He ordered stern disciplinary steps for those responsible for the flooding damage.

North Korea watchers say Kim Jong Un’s moves are unusually strong given there were no reports of human casualties. They say Kim could use the flooding as a chance to reshuffle top officials in a bid to reinforce public confidence in his government as he struggles to revive an economy reeling from COVID-19.

“Kim Jong Un appears to be searching for extreme steps to divert public complaints that have been heightened due to worsened public livelihoods and economic situations,” said Tae Yongho, a South Korean lawmaker, who served as a minister at the North Korean Embassy in London before his defection in 2016.

Outside experts believe North Korea’s current food shortages and economic troubles have deepened due to draconian pandemic curbs, U.N. sanctions and North Korea’s own mismanagement. But there are no signs of an imminent famine or major public unrest that could threaten Kim’s grip on his 26 million people.

AP · August 22, 2023

6. #ROK: #Japan. Unexpected and unprecedented alliance in North Asia

My recent interview with John Batchelor and Gordon Chang.

In terms of self criticism, I failed, like the rest of the media, to address the overlooked statements in the Camp David Principles and Soriti of Camp David: the pursuit of a free and unified Korea.

https://audioboom.com/posts/8354623-rok-japan-unexpected-and-unprecedented-alliance-in-north-asia-david-maxwell-fdd-gordongch?fbclid=IwAR1qZPY3HXr4AldvAXgD6dbt6GbgWr3TXeGRw_gEj0pj07JIiBY83JqejH4

#ROK: #Japan. Unexpected and unprecedented alliance in North Asia. David Maxwell, FDD. @GordonGChang, Gatestone, Newsweek, The Hill. David Maxwell, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and senior fellow at the Global Peace Foundation

Photo:

1920 Imperial Hotel Tokyo

No known restrictions on publication.

@Batchelorshow

#ROK: #Japan. Unexpected and unprecedented alliance in North Asia. David Maxwell, FDD. @GordonGChang, Gatestone, Newsweek, The Hill. David Maxwell, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and senior fellow at the Global Peace Foundation,

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-south-korea-japan-agree-crisis-consultations-camp-david-summit-2023-08-18/

7. US-Japan-Korea summit impressive first trilateral step

I think the majority of the analysis is questioning whether the agreements can be sustained or in the case of this article did the three countries bite off more than they can chew and put too much on the table?

US-Japan-Korea summit impressive first trilateral step

The question is whether the Camp David agreement put too much on the collaborative table at once

asiatimes.com · by John Hemmings · August 22, 2023

The outputs from the US-Japan-ROK Trilateral meeting at Camp David last week were impressive. They ranged from the geostrategic to values and principles and to actual mechanisms to effect policies.

Starting with the Camp David Principles of shared values, mutual respect, and concern for peace and stability in the region, they worked through the Commitment to Consult and then delivered concrete actions in the Fact Sheet and Joint Statement (also called the “Spirit of Camp David”).

While the summit was the fourth between the three leaders, it is clearly the culmination of previous discussions and reveals a desire by the United States to institutionalize the relationship so that it outlasts any future Korean and Japanese tensions.

After all, the US-Japan-ROK trilateral is actually the oldest minilateral – with a longevity that far exceeds the US-Japan-Australia trilateral or the recent newcomer AUKUS – but it has precious little to show for it.

The Biden administration should be commended for seizing the opportunity that President Yoon Suk Yeol’s government offered in terms of his willingness to repair ties with Japan and engage with the United States on the Indo-Pacific.

The only question now is whether the Camp David agreement has put too much on the table at once, making execution difficult. The structure of the readouts is rather neat. It’s clear that the outcomes are to sit atop the Commitment to Consult and the Camp David Principles.

While the latter readout sounds rather anodyne to American readers – respect for international law, shared norms, and common values – any reader of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy and National Security Strategy will instantly recognize in them the values bedrock of the US competition with the People’s Republic of China.

What makes this statement particularly noteworthy is that traditionally Japan and South Korea rarely expressed their foreign policy in these terms, right up until the end of the Cold War. Seeing them join in this statement – and knowing of the personal support by both President Yoon and Prime Minister Kishida for their inclusion – shows how far the three countries have come on common assumptions.

The principles statement on Taiwan is also remarkably bold: “We reaffirm the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait as an indispensable element of security and prosperity in the international community.” This warning to China – for that is what it is – shows the spirit of the administration’s “integrated deterrence” framework.

Looking at the Fact Sheet and Joint Declaration, there are a few differences, though both sweep broadly over the same areas.

Perhaps the most impressive part is the huge leap that the trilateral has taken as institutionalized security architecture. While previously institutionalized – famously in the Trilateral Coordinating Oversight Group (TCOG) in the late 1990s – this did not survive the early 2000s.

Japanese, US and South Korean flags. Photo: Kyodo

The Camp David agreement has replaced the TCOG model with multiple ministerial tracks expected to take place annually, ranging from the already existing summits to the foreign and defense ministerials. Added to these, however, are two new annual ministerials, one for finance and one for commerce and industry.

While commendable, this only adds to the number of ministerials that confront the bureaucracies of all three in other fora and one wonders how the ministers will actually be able to handle the added pressure.

Certainly, groupings like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (“Quad”) will also compete with the trilateral for the time and energy of ministerial staff, and we may see even more outsourcing of the policy outlines to the private sector and think tank sector in all three countries, where policy discussions touch upon sectors like energy, critical and emerging technologies, and supply chains.

What stands out are the economic initiatives and the newly formed Indo-Pacific security frameworks. The three countries have agreed to an “early warning system” that will share information on “possible disruptions to global supply chains” to “confront and overcome economic coercion.”

However, it sounds as though the three countries either have not decided exactly how they will bolster themselves against economic retaliation or, as plausibly demonstrated by the warning system, coordination on semiconductor and chip manufacturing capabilities will remain limited for now, either to bilateral levels or within the private sector.

Although the growing closeness of the three countries may help insulate ROK and Japanese economies against retaliation by China, they have yet to outline specific countermeasures.

Furthermore, internal issues such as the allocation of subsidies to address industrial chip capacity building in the ROK and Japan under the CHIPS Act remain unaddressed. Much like the US-ROK summit in April, the summit skirted a direct mention of semiconductor issues, instead showing an implicit focus on supply chain resilience and critical and emerging technologies through the Trilateral National Laboratories Cooperation and the Trilateral Economic Security Dialogue.

The commitment to build relations with ASEAN and Pacific Island nations is also a commendable step in developing a reliable trilateral relationship with nations across the Indo-Pacific and an attempt to avoid the ASEAN backlash occasioned by AUKUS and the Quad.

The Trilateral Development Finance Cooperation will build inter-trilateral connections since the ROK lacks an infrastructure financing mechanism, as opposed to the US and Japan, which share financing responsibilities through the Quad.

As the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) and Korea International Cooperation Agency (KOICA) are both experienced in building freshwater and gas infrastructure, the US may turn to its skill in financing in order to develop public goods for the region in the form of infrastructure.

The three will also seek to coordinate disaster relief efforts as natural disasters increasingly impact Indo-Pacific countries.

Then, there is the introduction of a Trilateral Maritime Security Cooperation Framework, which provides a broad forum for collaboration on potential maritime issues such as coast guard operations, maritime domain awareness, countering illegal unregulated fishing, and the development of maritime blue-water capabilities.

The framework gives South Korea the flexibility to negotiate the ROK Navy’s role in the maritime domain given the recent maritime emphasis of the ROK Indo-Pacific Strategy.

The USS Coast Guard Cutters Nantucket (C) and two other US Coast Guard cutters in a file photo. Photo: Asia Times Files / AFP / Yuri Cortez

The summit at Camp David has set an ambitious agenda for the future of the trilateral relationship. The numerous initiatives cover vulnerable regions of the Indo-Pacific and build on national strengths by focusing on critical areas such as cybersecurity and critical and emerging technologies.

There is a clear indication that the trilateral relationship has moved from its focus on the Peninsula to being a regional body, emphasizing cooperation with ASEAN and Pacific Island nations, and taking a clear stance on Taiwan. It also creates several avenues for the three to work on economic security and maritime security. It will be interesting to see how successful those two tracks will be, relative to each other.

The trilateral meeting at Camp David is historic and has made immense gains. However, it remains to be seen how many of these initiatives will make progress and whether the attempts to institutionalize the relationship will succeed. For the sake of peace in the region, let’s hope that they do.

John Hemmings (john@pacforum.org) is senior director for Indo-Pacific Foreign and Security Policy at Pacific Forum. Hanah Park (hanah@pacforum.org) is a research intern at Pacific Forum.

This article was first published by Pacific Forum. Asia Times is republishing it with permission.

asiatimes.com · by John Hemmings · August 22, 2023

8. Man flees China on water scooter, crossing 200 miles of ocean to S. Korea

What a man will do to be free.

Man flees China on water scooter, crossing 200 miles of ocean to S. Korea

By Andrew Jeong and Lyric Li

August 23, 2023 at 4:20 a.m. EDT

The Washington Post · by Andrew Jeong · August 23, 2023

SEOUL — A Chinese man who washed up on South Korea’s west coast last week after crossing the Yellow Sea on a water scooter, is thought to be a political dissident who was once imprisoned in China, a South Korean human rights activist said Wednesday.

Kwon Pyong, a 35-year-old ethnic Korean whose name in Mandarin is Quan Ping, arrived in the port city of Incheon last week, Lee Daeseon, a Korea-based human rights activist, said in a telephone interview. Incheon, an hour’s drive west of the capital Seoul, is the home of the country’s main airport.

Lee said Kwon had traveled more than 300 kilometers, or about 200 miles, on the personal watercraft from China’s Shandong province to reach South Korea, where some of his relatives live. Lee, who has known Kwon since 2019, said he confirmed the man’s identity after being allowed a visit Tuesday to a coast guard facility where Kwon was being held. A close relative in South Korea also confirmed that the individual is Kwon, according to Lee, who said he had spoken to that relative.

Kwon is seeking political asylum outside China, preferably in the United States, Britain or Canada, Lee said. “Kwon is in good health and good spirits,” he said. Kwon previously studied as a college student in Iowa, Lee said.

The Korean coast guard said in a news release Sunday that an individual on a 1,800-cc red water scooter — carrying more than 200 liters, or more than 50 gallons, of fuel — had beached on Incheon’s wetlands and was detained for crossing the border illegally. It said the person had visited Korea previously but did not disclose the individual’s name and refused to comment further, citing privacy concerns.

The coast guard’s details of how the man was found suggested he had prepared for the trip thoroughly: He was wearing a life jacket and a helmet and carrying binoculars and a compass. He had dumped empty fuel canisters into the sea after refueling along the way.

In 2017, Kwon was jailed for 18 months in China for “inciting subversion of state power” after he posted speeches, images and videos on social media critical of the Chinese government. In one photo, Kwon wore a white T-shirt that likened China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, to Hitler. A Chinese court said Kwon had insulted the “state authority and the socialist system,” according to Front Line Defenders, an advocacy group that has followed his case.

Since being released from prison, Kwon has been subject to an exit ban stopping him from departing China legally, Lee said. He tried to leave China and enter Korea by filing a political asylum application in 2019, but the process was eventually canceled because of the travel ban. Under Xi, China is increasingly using exit bans to keep critics of the regime — citizens and foreigners alike — in the country, where they can be more easily surveilled and silenced.

The Chinese Embassy in Seoul refused to comment, saying it has no relevant information about the case.

After returning from Iowa, Kwon worked for a family business in his hometown of Yanbian, a trade hub on the China-North Korea border. On social media platforms that are now banned in China, he posted criticism of the government’s censorship and political controls and support for dissidents and protests, his former attorneys said online and to the media in 2019. All of his Facebook and Twitter posts have since been deleted.

The Washington Post · by Andrew Jeong · August 23, 2023

9. To make extra money, North Koreans pay big bribes for gold refinery jobs

Donju class = moneyed class.

Excerpt:

Demand by the donju for the metals is growing now that land-border trade between north Korea's Sinuiju and China’s Dandong soon will resume after being suspended due to the COVID-19 pandemic, he said.

To make extra money, North Koreans pay big bribes for gold refinery jobs

Stolen gold and other metals are sold to donju, entrepreneurs engaged in smuggling.

By Son Hyemin for RFA Korean

2023.08.22

rfa.org

North Koreans wanting to land plum jobs as assayers at a well-known gold refinery — and to make extra money from illegally siphoning off some of the precious metal — must pay big bribes to supervisors, sources inside the country said.

Assayers, who test metals for purity, are the most in-demand jobs at the Jongju refinery in North Pyongan province, which is connected to gold mines in the region, they said.

The Jongju refinery smelts lead and zinc in addition to gold, making it the most valuable refinery in North Korea, said a source from North Pyongan province, who requested anonymity for safety reasons.

“So, it is not easy to get a job as an assayer at the Jongju refinery,” he said.

Those who work as assayers at the Jongju refinery for a year can earn several times more money compared to North Korean workers dispatched to Russia for three years to earn foreign currency for the Pyongyang regime, a second source from North Pyongan province said.

Such activity shows how workers must engage in bribery and stealing on the job in order to survive as North Korean’s cash-strapped economy continues to flag under international sanctions imposed for the regime’s nuclear program and missile tests.

North Korean workers dispatched to Russia are known to earn more than US$2,000 for three years of work — an amount that includes an official salary of about US$1,000 plus additional income from other jobs in private construction and moonshine production, said the source, who declined to be identified for the same reason.

How it’s done

Assayers at state-owned mines determine the weight of gold ore in extracted and mostly purified metals and record the figures before sending the gold to the Jongju refinery for processing, the source said.

For example, when ore from a mine in North Pyongan province is transported by truck to the Jongju refinery, the vehicle is first weighed with its load, the first source said. The ore concentrate – ore from which most impurities have been removed – is then poured out, and the empty vehicle is weighed again to determine the actual tonnage of the concentrate on a slip. This is recorded by the assayer.

The Jonju refinery smelts lead, zinc, gold and silver from the concentrates and holds them for the state, he said. The amount to be collected by the state is based on the figures recorded by the assayers and calculated during the first warehousing stage.

If a mine supervisor who hands over the concentrates and gold ore to the refinery has an informal arrangement with the assayers, then the refinery will receive figures that are lower than the actual weight of what has been transported, the first source said, implying that some of the metals are siphoned off for illegal sale.

The lead and gold not officially accounted for are divided between the refinery manager in charge of the smelting process and the mine material supervisor who brought the material, the first source said.

But such arrangements take time to establish, said another source from North Pyongan province, who requested anonymity for the same reason.

Dollar bribes

And the bribes must be paid in U.S dollars – which are hard to come by in North Korea, but not impossible to obtain.

“Dollar bribes are a must to get a job as a measuring worker at the Jongju refinery,” he told Radio Free Asia. “You need to bribe the officials of the leadership department at the refinery on holidays and become close friends [with them] for at least a year.”

A typical bribe would be clothing worth US$100, appliances worth a few hundred dollars, or more than US$1,000 in cash, the source said.

“The candidate with the largest bribe can get the measuring job,” he added.

Mine material supervisors bribe assayers and adjust the tonnage of the concentrate to be entered on the slip, said the second source.

“Afterwards, he does business again with the refinery manager and steals lead, zinc, and in rare cases, gold — as much as the amount of concentrate that is not entered on the slip,” he said.

The stolen lead, zinc, and gold are sold to donju – entrepreneurs involved in a wide range of businesses, including retail and smuggling — and converted into cash.

“If you buy lead, zinc and gold and smuggle them to the Chinese market, you can make a profit several times higher than the North Korean market price, so demand is high,” the second source said.

Demand by the donju for the metals is growing now that land-border trade between north Korea's Sinuiju and China’s Dandong soon will resume after being suspended due to the COVID-19 pandemic, he said.

Translated by Claire Shinyoung Oh Lee for RFA Korean. Edited by Roseanne Gerin and Malcolm Foster.

rfa.org

10. Kim Jong Un’s Pandemic Power Faces Test as North

Will the reopening of the border ease the situation for the Korean people? Will it reduce the resistance potential inside north Korea?

We have known this for years:

“Coronavirus—an external threat—very quickly became weaponized as a political tool for domestic purposes, to tighten Kim Jong Un’s grip on North Korean society, and prevent civil disobedience,” said Edward Howell, a North Korean expert at the University of Oxford.

From one of my lecture slides dating back to last year:

north Korea’s COVID Paradox

•No reported cases for 2 years – Outbreak (May 2022) and then Over (July 2022!)

–Assessment: highly unlikely

–Myriad reports from inside about quarantine camps and outbreaks among military

•Kim exploiting COVID to oppress, repress, and suppress

–Close borders, hinder markets, seize foreign currency, stop movement, information crackdown

•“Arduous March” – Great Famine of 1994-1996

–Estimated possibly 3 million perished

–“Saved” by ROK Sunshine policy (and $billions in aid from 1997-2007)

–Development of 400+ markets resilient women taking care of families

•Comparison –a COVID outbreak could be far worse

–Made worse by Kim’s policy decisions to exploit the situation to keep a stranglehold on the people and sustain power

•Regime Collapse: loss of central governing effectiveness by the party combined with loss of coherency and support of the military

Kim Jong Un’s Pandemic Power Faces Test as North

Relaxing the secretive regime’s border restrictions challenges the dictator’s total control over the population

By Timothy W. Martin

and Dasl Yoon

Aug. 23, 2023 6:33 am ET

https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/kim-jong-uns-pandemic-power-faces-test-as-north-korea-ends-covid-isolation-32423aac?mod

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un laughing during a military parade marking the 70th anniversary of the armistice that halted fighting in the 1950-53 Korean War. PHOTO: /KCNA VIA KNS/ASSOCIATED PRESS

SEOUL—The pandemic leveled North Korea’s economy, stoked fear inside the country and threatened the livelihood of Kim Jong Un.

But the fears produced a societal, economic and informational paralysis that worked to Kim’s advantage—and as North Korea unwinds one of the world’s longest periods of strict Covid isolation, the 39-year-old dictator finds himself more in control than ever.

The country’s sealed-off borders meant illegal black-market trade with China plummeted, increasing Kim’s ability to determine who attained or lost wealth. The exodus of foreign diplomats and aid workers further limited the outside world’s perspective on the opaque regime. And the foreign virus gave Kim a villain on which to blame the nation’s woes.

The increased control over the North Korean people and their movement enabled the regime’s stability, said Ellen Kim, deputy director and senior fellow of the Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank.

“One thing to think about is whether Kim Jong Un wants to go back to the prepandemic days,” she said. “He may not want to loosen up the control he enjoyed during the pandemic and might want to seek ways to maintain that.”

But Kim Jong Un will grapple with a series of challenges as North Korea transitions away from self-isolation.

Yoon visits wartime bunker to monitor joint S. Korea-U.S. military exercise | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Han-joo · August 23, 2023

SEOUL, Aug. 23 (Yonhap) -- President Yoon Suk Yeol visited a key U.S.-controlled wartime command bunker complex on Wednesday to examine South Korean and U.S. troops engaging in an annual joint military exercise, according to his spokesperson.

Yoon's trip to CP Tango, or the Command Post Theater Air Naval Ground Operations, in Seongnam, just south of Seoul, came on the third day of the ongoing Ulchi Freedom Shield (UFS) exercise between the two countries running for 11 days.

"CP Tango has served as the brain commanding three military branches of both countries during wartime since the establishment of the South Korea-U.S. Combined Forces Command in 1978," Yoon was quoted by presidential spokesperson Lee Do-woon as saying.

It marks the first time since former President Park Geun-hye's visit in 2013 that a sitting president has visited the wartime bunker nestled in the mountains.

Yoon also said that North Korea's nuclear and missile threats are the most serious, adding that provocations are becoming more sophisticated and versatile through cyber attacks and psychological warfare.

The North has notified Japan of its plan to launch a satellite between Thursday and Aug. 31, according to a Japanese news report. The launch window overlaps with the UFS, as North Korea has long denounced Seoul-Washington joint military drills as a rehearsal for invasion.

The bunker complex serves as the primary command and control center for South Korean and U.S. forces in the event of an armed conflict. It is known to be strong enough to survive a tactical nuclear attack.

President Yoon Suk Yeol visits CP Tango, or the Command Post Theater Air Naval Ground Operations, in Seongnam, just south of Seoul, on Aug. 23, 2023, to monitor South Korean and U.S. troops engaging in a joint military exercise in this photo provided by the presidential office. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

khj@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Han-joo · August 23, 2023

12. PM says int'l lawsuit will be filed if Fukushima water release goes beyond standards

The administration is trying to thread the needle here between trilateral cooperation and majestic political opposition. They must have their fingers crossed hoping that the levels will not rise above the standards.

PM says int'l lawsuit will be filed if Fukushima water release goes beyond standards | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Park Boram · August 23, 2023

SEOUL, Aug. 23 (Yonhap) -- Prime Minister Han Duck-soo said Wednesday the government will stay ready to file an international lawsuit if Japan's release of treated radioactive water from the crippled Fukushima nuclear power plant goes beyond the standards.

Han made the remarks during a meeting with reporters as Japan is reported to be discussing releasing the treated radioactive water as early as 1 p.m. Thursday.

"The Ministry of Foreign Affairs will always remain ready to lodge a suit internationally if the release is conducted in a way that is inconsistent with the standards," the prime minister said.

He added South Korea will also demand an immediate halt of the release in the event that the concentration level of a single nuclide goes beyond the standards.

The South Korean government will also receive related real-time data from Japan in the initial stage after the radioactive water release begins and keep an eye on concentration levels of 69 kinds of radioactive substances, he said.

"Our government will mobilize all means and measures available, and make efforts until people become sure about safety," Han said.

Prime Minister Han Duck-soo (R) makes a public speech at the government complex in Seoul on Aug. 23, 2023. (Yonhap)

pbr@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Park Boram · August 23, 2023

13. Hyesan clamps down on money changers

WHy would you put your money in a north Korean (e.g. Workers party of Korea) bank?

Hyesan clamps down on money changers

“Even so, people aren’t about to put their money in the banks. The money changers will be back in business before too long," a source told Daily NK

By Lee Chae Un - 2023.08.23 5:00pm

dailynk.com

Hyesan clamps down on money changers | Daily NK English

FILE PHOTO: Hyesan, Yanggang Province, in August 2013. (Daily NK)

Hyesan authorities have recently started clamping down on money changers, Daily NK has learned.

“Money changers are facing a tougher crackdown than ever before. Since all the money changers are lying low, it’s hard to find anyone willing to process a currency transaction,” a source in Yanggang Province told Daily NK on Aug. 17, speaking on condition of anonymity for security reasons.

According to the source, the police in Hyesan have been rounding up any money changers they can find and sending them to disciplinary labor centers. The first money changers to be arrested were the ones famous for handling the most money, which has created a chilling effect on the entire industry.

“The police have recently been raiding the homes of well-known money changers. If any US dollars or Chinese yuan turn up in the search, the money is all confiscated and the money changers sent to a labor camp. When only North Korean money turns up, the money is still confiscated for being the proceeds of criminal behavior, much to the consternation not only of the money changers themselves but also everyone else who hears about it,” the source said.

Confidence in the national currency has fallen since the currency reform of 2009, motivating North Koreans to hold foreign currency, which is regarded as safer. In North Korea, it is illegal to trade or possess foreign currency.

So North Koreans have continued to surreptitiously use and trade foreign currency even as the authorities have grown harsher in their enforcement of the rules against foreign currency transactions.

Given the persistence of public reliance on money changers instead of official banking services, the North Korean authorities have taken steps to put money changers in custody, the source explained.

“In the city of Hyesan, ten or so money changers who operated on a large scale were arrested by the police and sent to a labor camp. The police raids were planned in secret and carried out without warning, leaving the money changers with no way of evading arrest,” the source said.

A couple of the arrested money changers managed to draw upon their connections to secure their release, but they are currently in hiding out of fear of further arrests.

The crackdown has cast a pall on the money changing market — a surreptitious affair at the best of times — and has driven it even further underground.

“Crackdowns on money changers aren’t anything new, but it’s uncommon for ten or more people to be arrested and booked in a single sweep. Since the police are staking out the typical money changing locations and casting their nets wide, even low-level money changers have made themselves scarce,” the source said.

“Even so, people aren’t about to put their money in the banks. The money changers will be back in business before too long.”

Translated by David Black. Edited by Robert Lauler.

Daily NK works with a network of sources who live inside North Korea, China and elsewhere. Their identities remain anonymous due to security concerns. More information about Daily NK’s reporting partner network and information gathering activities can be found on our FAQ page here.

Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.

Read in Korean

Lee Chae Un

Lee Chae Un is one of Daily NK’s full-time journalists. She can be reached at dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.

dailynk.com

14. Korea Faces Diplomatic Challenges in New Cold War

Excerpt:

South Korea has so far managed to steer a relatively steady course by siding with the U.S. for security and with China for its economic interests. But this formula became obsolete in the new cold war between the U.S. and China. South Korea probably has no choice but to join a U.S.-led economic and security bloc, but it cannot ignore the global status of China when it comes to the economy and security. China used to be South Korea's top trading partner with some 25 percent of its exports heading there. That will not change for quite some time. Most importantly, China and Russia have many options to pressure South Korea by using North Korea as a bargaining chip. They could supply North Korean leader Kim Jong-un with cutting-edge weapons. That is why the trilateral axis offers both huge opportunities and risks for Seoul.

...

South Korea must continue to participate in the China-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership among Asia-Pacific nations. The leaders of South Korea, China and Japan are seeking to hold a trilateral summit later this year. Channels of communication must be expanded to involve their ministers of defense and foreign affairs. The South should also use its strengthened relations with the U.S. as leverage in its ties with China. Wisdom is essential in addressing complicated diplomatic problems.

Korea Faces Diplomatic Challenges in New Cold War

english.chosun.com

August 22, 2023 13:07

The trilateral summit at Camp David was a vivid reminder of South Korea's growing status in the new world order, but it has also estranged the country further from China and Russia. The leaders of the U.S., Japan and South Korea voiced concerns about China's behavior and criticized its belligerent stance against Taiwan and in the South China Sea. This is the first time that the three allies singled out China on these points. They also vowed to take concerted measures to support Ukraine against the Russian invasion and pledged to cooperate in sharing information and addressing the challenges posed by China and Russia.

China reacted immediately. Just three hours after the summit ended, Beijing conducted a naval drill in the Taiwan Strait, where warships crossed over the median line. Beijing also announced it is conducting an eight-day military exercise in the West Sea starting last Sunday. "The Asia-Pacific region is a promising land for peace and development. It should not be turned into a boxing ring for major power rivalry," it warned.

South Korea has so far managed to steer a relatively steady course by siding with the U.S. for security and with China for its economic interests. But this formula became obsolete in the new cold war between the U.S. and China. South Korea probably has no choice but to join a U.S.-led economic and security bloc, but it cannot ignore the global status of China when it comes to the economy and security. China used to be South Korea's top trading partner with some 25 percent of its exports heading there. That will not change for quite some time. Most importantly, China and Russia have many options to pressure South Korea by using North Korea as a bargaining chip. They could supply North Korean leader Kim Jong-un with cutting-edge weapons. That is why the trilateral axis offers both huge opportunities and risks for Seoul.

Diplomacy is complex, and the three countries are also important to China and Russia. There is no reason why Seoul cannot strengthen strategic communication and cooperation with Beijing and Moscow while doing the same with Washington and Tokyo. China needs Korean-made semiconductors and other high-tech products as much as South Korea needs Chinese materials. Beijing also stands to lose much by letting ties with Seoul deteriorate.

South Korea must continue to participate in the China-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership among Asia-Pacific nations. The leaders of South Korea, China and Japan are seeking to hold a trilateral summit later this year. Channels of communication must be expanded to involve their ministers of defense and foreign affairs. The South should also use its strengthened relations with the U.S. as leverage in its ties with China. Wisdom is essential in addressing complicated diplomatic problems.

Read this article in Korean

english.chosun.com

15. N. Korea joins China trade fair in another sign of border reopening

N. Korea joins China trade fair in another sign of border reopening | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · August 23, 2023

SHENYANG, China, Aug. 23 (Yonhap) -- North Korea opened booths for visitors at a Chinese trade fair Wednesday, in another sign the North is reopening its border after more than three years of strict COVID-19 restrictions.

North Korea's participation at the 14th China-Northeast Asia Expo in Changchun, the capital city of China's Jilin province, which shares a border with the North, came a day after a North Korean commercial flight arrived in Beijing.

It marked the resumption of commercial flights connecting the two nations after a hiatus of more than 3 1/2 years caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

North Korea installed booths to promote the country and its products at the fair, where other countries in the region, including South Korea, Russia and Japan, are taking part for the first time since the outbreak of COVID-19.

This Aug. 23, 2023, photo shows the 14th China-Northeast Asia Expo taking place in the northeastern Chinese city of Changchun. (Yonhap)

Ku Yong-hyok, the North's consul general in the Chinese city of Shenyang, appeared at the event, marking his first official public appearance in three years and seven months since the pandemic hit China.

Yun Jong-ho, the North's minister of external economic relations, sent a written congratulatory message saying that Pyongyang "will strengthen and develop a solidarity of friendship and cooperation with all countries in the world that respect its autonomy."

Ku Yong-hyok (C), North Korea's consul general in the Chinese city of Shenyang, attends the 14th China-Northeast Asia Expo in Changchun, China, on Aug. 23, 2023. (Yonhap)

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · August 23, 2023

16. S. Korea-U.S. nuclear agreement needs to be revised

An interesting OpEd from the Donga Ilbo editorial board: equal status with Japan.

Conclusion:

While an immediate revision of the South Korea-U.S. Nuclear Agreement, which is subject to revision every 20 years, may present challenges, the current juncture offers an opportune moment to begin laying the groundwork for such revisions, considering the compelling reasons and optimal timing. Given South Korea’s active engagement in global denuclearization efforts under the banner of “peaceful utilization of nuclear energy,” it is imperative that the South Korea-U.S. Nuclear Agreement be adjusted to align with the standards set by the U.S.-Japan Nuclear Agreement. Overcoming this disparity is essential to effectively operate the trilateral cooperative mechanism involving South Korea, the United States, and Japan.

S. Korea-U.S. nuclear agreement needs to be revised

donga.com

Posted August. 23, 2023 08:19,

Updated August. 23, 2023 08:19

S. Korea-U.S. nuclear agreement needs to be revised. August. 23, 2023 08:19. .

Following the trilateral summit held at Camp David, which marked a significant upgrade in cooperation between South Korea, the United States, and Japan, there has been a growing call for reconsidering the ROK-US Agreement for Peaceful Nuclear Cooperation. Director of the South Korean National Security Council, Cho Tae-yong, a key figure in the national security apparatus, has raised concerns, highlighting the need to address the disparity in nuclear capabilities between Japan and South Korea.

Under the existing agreement, South Korea has been restricted from recycling nuclear fuel and enriching uranium. Despite a 2015 amendment that aimed at collaborative research for commercial pipe processing, progress remains at a preliminary stage. Moreover, South Korea’s uranium enrichment capacity is capped at levels lower than 20 percent, contingent upon mutual consent from both countries. In contrast, Japan obtained authorization for nuclear fuel recycling through the U.S.-Japan Nuclear Cooperation Agreement in 1987 and is presently recycling 800 tons of used nuclear fuel annually.

The rationale provided by the United States for limiting South Korea’s nuclear activities is rooted in concerns over potential nuclear weapons development. However, South Korea has reaffirmed its commitment to adhering to its obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, as evident in the “Washington Statement.” Furthermore, South Korea stands as a steadfast U.S. ally, participating in collaborative efforts like the Nuclear Consultative Group, which emphasizes nuclear sharing and joint military exercises. Given these mutual agreements, the current discrepancy in granting nuclear fuel recycling and uranium enrichment rights to Japan, despite its history of war crimes, and withholding them from South Korea seems inconsistent with the underlying principles of the South Korea-U.S.-Japan defense system.

Nuclear fuel recycling and uranium enrichment are pivotal for industrial development. South Korea hosts 25 nuclear power plants, necessitating a reliable supply of enriched uranium. Forecasts indicate that storage capacities for rapidly accumulating nuclear waste will reach their limits by 2030, potentially requiring the shutdown of nuclear power plants. Alternatively, allowing South Korea to recycle used nuclear fuel would help mitigate the volume of waste while enhancing energy efficiency.

While an immediate revision of the South Korea-U.S. Nuclear Agreement, which is subject to revision every 20 years, may present challenges, the current juncture offers an opportune moment to begin laying the groundwork for such revisions, considering the compelling reasons and optimal timing. Given South Korea’s active engagement in global denuclearization efforts under the banner of “peaceful utilization of nuclear energy,” it is imperative that the South Korea-U.S. Nuclear Agreement be adjusted to align with the standards set by the U.S.-Japan Nuclear Agreement. Overcoming this disparity is essential to effectively operate the trilateral cooperative mechanism involving South Korea, the United States, and Japan.

한국어

donga.com

17. State Department renews ban on use of US passports for travel to North Korea

Damn, my north Korean tour plans are stymied again.

On a serious note, I would love to see people to people engagement with Koreans in the north. It would be part of my information campaign toward the north. However, every American who travels to the north is at risk.

If north Korea was a normal country they would have returned Pvt King immediately and of course they would never have done to Otto Warmbier what they did, in effect slowly murdering him (and I do not think that is hyperbole)

State Department renews ban on use of US passports for travel to North Korea

AP · August 22, 2023

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Biden administration is extending for another year a ban on the use of U.S. passports for travel to North Korea, the State Department said Tuesday. The ban was imposed in 2017 and has been renewed every year since.

The latest extension comes as tensions with North Korea are rising over its nuclear and ballistic missile programs and the uncertain status of Travis King, a U.S. service member who last month entered the country through its heavily armed border.

“The Department of State has determined there continues to be serious risk to U.S. citizens and nationals of arrest and long-term detention constituting imminent danger to their physical safety,” the department said in a notice to be published in the Federal Register on Wednesday that was signed by Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

The ban makes it illegal to use a U.S. passport for travel to, from or through North Korea, unless it has been specifically validated in the case of a compelling national interest. It will remain in place until Aug. 31, 2024, unless it is extended or rescinded.

The ban was first imposed during the Trump administration by former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson in 2017 after the death of American student Otto Warmbier, who suffered grievous injuries while in North Korean custody.

Warmbier was part of a group tour of North Korea and was leaving the country in January 2016 when he was arrested for allegedly stealing a propaganda poster. He was later convicted of subversion and was sentenced to 15 years in prison. Warmbier died in a Cincinnati hospital six days after his return to the U.S.

Humanitarian groups have expressed concern about the impact the initial ban and its extensions have had on providing relief to isolated North Korea, which is one of the world’s neediest countries.

There is no indication that King used a U.S. passport to enter North Korea when he crossed the border in July. The U.S. is seeking his return but has had limited success in querying North Korean officials about his case.

Last week, North Korea offered its first official confirmation of King’s presence in the country, releasing a statement on Aug. 16 through its state media attributing statements to the Army private that criticized the United States.

There was no immediate verification that King actually made any of the comments. He had served in South Korea and sprinted into North Korea while on a civilian tour of a border village on July 18, and became the first American confirmed to be detained in the North in nearly five years.

AP · August 22, 2023

18. New Seoul slogan leaves many city residents scratching their heads

But PR firms make more money when you change slogans often.

I suppose Koreans in Seoul are scratching their heads because it seems to me the slogan is not designed for Seoulites but for English speaking foreigners. I like it, but then I am an English speaking foreigner.

New Seoul slogan leaves many city residents scratching their heads

The Korea Times · August 23, 2023

Seoul's new slogan, "Seoul, My Soul," appears on an entrance to city hall, Wednesday. Yonhap

City advised not to change slogan too often and learn from New York

By Ko Dong-hwan

The Seoul city government unveiled a new slogan amid much hoopla last week in hopes of bolstering the image of the metropolis. The new slogan, "Seoul, My Soul," replaces "I.SEOUL.U" that was created eight years ago with the same goal in mind.

But even before all of the confetti settled, the Seoul Metropolitan Government's much-heralded slogan has drawn mixed reviews with many people scratching their heads.

A resident in eastern Seoul told The Korea Times that she likes the city's latest slogan because it is catchy and easy to remember.

"I also liked the previous I.SEOUL.U because I thought it was pretty smart to put the city name that way," the woman said, refusing to give her name. The 30-something woman lived in Seoul since she moved from Anyang, Gyeonggi Province in the early 1990s.

"I like the latest one even better," she added.

Another positive review came from a Korean-Canadian from Toronto.

"It always bothered me whenever people pronounced Seoul as 'Soul,' but I like this slogan," the local elementary school teacher told the Korea Times. "It rhymes, which makes it catchy and also captures how the city has a spirit. If it was like 'Toronto, My Soul,' people will be like 'what?'" the teacher added.

Some said the latest slogan is an improvement from the previous one that was criticized for making little sense grammatically and failed to deliver an effective message. The latest slogan's use of symbols also earned some positive reviews.

They said the outcome was more colorful and cuter than what they had expected from the government.

"To me, the new design expresses the city's value of diversity and seems to say the city is still young," Kim Su-jeung, a visual communication design professor at Ewha Womans University's College of Art and Design, told The Korea Times.

"A 'humor code' in the rhyming words and pictogram design adds a visual balance between the text and image. The outcome can appeal to a universal audience in a more friendly way."

On the other hand, critics said the new slogan is hardly original and is very similar to the city government's existing tourism catchphrase: "My Soul Seoul."

Participants at the Seoul Metropolitan Government's presentation ceremony for a new slogan wave at city hall, Wednesday. Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon is standing sixth from the right in the front row. Newsis

Some questioned if the decision to ditch I.SEOUL.U was necessary, even though Seoulites had already grown accustomed to it over the past eight years.

Others questioned if the rebranding project was even worth spending taxpayers' money.

"They shouldn't change the slogan so often, because it's confusing. It's better to stick to one. The change will also require an additional budget for public relations purposes," Kakim Danabayev, who works at Seoul Global Center in downtown Seoul, told The Korea Times. "Design-wise, I am curious why they added yellow, pink, green and blue," he added.

A professional designer in his 30s pointed out that changing a city's slogan or logo frequently is problematic, because it might paradoxically suggest that the catchphrase does not have much value.

Other critics also cited the fact that major business conglomerates are extremely cautious about changing their logos or brands.

Former Seoul Mayor Park Won-soon faced a barrage of criticism when he dumped "Hi Seoul, Soul of Asia" and came up with I.SEOUL.U in 2015.

Some people at the time were concerned that changing the existing brand could make it more difficult for people to remember it. And the latest slogan is not immune from the same criticism.

Many are advising the Seoul city government to take the cue from New York City, whose "I Love New York" logo has represented the megacity since 1977.

"Seoul, My Soul" is the city's fourth slogan change since 2002 when former Mayor Lee Myung-bak launched "Hi, Seoul."

The Seoul city government started working on the latest slogan in August 2022. Four finalists were chosen and after two rounds of public surveys, the winner was chosen in a final selection by beating "Seoul for you."

Design experts then started working on the new brand, adding pictograms to the text hoping the brand could be understood by the global community.

Some 850,000 people took part in creating the city's new slogan, including local residents as well as experts in branding, marketing and design.

The Korea Times · August 23, 2023

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

ernet troll’s guide to ‘OPSEC’

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

Access NSS HERE

Company Name | Website

Hwasong-18: The North Korean ICBM with 'Russian DNA'?

Even if the Russians helped the North Koreans build a missile based on the Topol-M ICBM (SS-27 Mod 2), it remains unclear how many advanced capabilities the Hwasong-18 would carry.

Sudden Threat Over Korea

U.S. in the Crosshairs of the Hwasong-18

A Response Is Needed

The Historic Camp David Summit – Overlooked Again: “JAROKUS” Seeks A Free and Unified Korea

South Korea and Japan Are Getting Closer. But Will It Last?

The Change in South Korean Domestic Politics

South Korea’s Imperial Presidency

South Korea’s Yoon could be the weakest link in the next Korean War

North Korea's Kim lambasts premier over flooding, in a possible bid to shift blame for economic woes

#ROK: #Japan. Unexpected and unprecedented alliance in North Asia. David Maxwell, FDD. @GordonGChang, Gatestone, Newsweek, The Hill. David Maxwell, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and senior fellow at the Global Peace Foundation

US-Japan-Korea summit impressive first trilateral step

Related

Man flees China on water scooter, crossing 200 miles of ocean to S. Korea

To make extra money, North Koreans pay big bribes for gold refinery jobs

Kim Jong Un’s Pandemic Power Faces Test as North

Relaxing the secretive regime’s border restrictions challenges the dictator’s total control over the population

Yoon visits wartime bunker to monitor joint S. Korea-U.S. military exercise | Yonhap News Agency

PM says int'l lawsuit will be filed if Fukushima water release goes beyond standards | Yonhap News Agency

Hyesan clamps down on money changers

Korea Faces Diplomatic Challenges in New Cold War

N. Korea joins China trade fair in another sign of border reopening | Yonhap News Agency

S. Korea-U.S. nuclear agreement needs to be revised

State Department renews ban on use of US passports for travel to North Korea

New Seoul slogan leaves many city residents scratching their heads

ernet troll’s guide to ‘OPSEC’