Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

“We have come to the end of an unusual experiment. This experiment was to determine whether a group of Americans constituting a cross-section of racial origins, of abilities, temperaments and talents, could risk an encounter with the long-established and well-trained enemy organizations.”

~ General William “Wild Bill” Donovan, September 1945

"If you are free, you need to free somebody else. If you have some power, then your job is to empower somebody else."

- Toni Morrison, American novelist and social critic (1931-2019)

"The trick is in what one emphasizes. We either make ourselves miserable, or we make ourselves strong. The amount of work is the same."

- Carlos Castaneda

1. N. Korea says 2nd attempt to launch spy satellite fails: state media

2. KCNA Report on Accident in Second Launch of Military Reconnaissance Satellite

3. North Korea’s Second Spy-Satellite Launch Fails in Midflight

4. U.S. 'strongly condemns' N. Korea's latest space launch: White House

5. U.S. says N. Korean satellite launch violates UNSC resolutions, calls on Pyongyang to engage in dialogue

6. The Camp David U.S.-Japan-Korea Trilateral Summit: An Exchange among CSIS Japan and Korea Chairs

7. S.Koreans Need to Take Civil Defense Drills More Seriously

8. What to Do about North Korean Nuclear Weapons

9. Violent crime is rising in North Korea amid food shortages

10. Camp David Marked a ‘New Era’ in Japan-Korea-US Relations. Can It Endure?

11. State security agency branches on border use family members of defectors to bust remittance brokers

12. [ANALYSIS] North Korea fails again to launch satellite but appears to have solved cause of 1st failure

13. North Korea slams South Korea-US-Japan summit as 'Asian version of NATO'

14. Yoon orders NSC to share analysis of NK launch with US, Japan

15. FBI says North Korean hackers preparing to cash out after high-profile crypto hacks

16. N Korea’s new 661 ship makes a nuclear-tipped point

17. Don't count on Camp David

18. US soldier in North Korea has ‘so many reasons’ to come home, mom says

1. N. Korea says 2nd attempt to launch spy satellite fails: state media

Will heads roll?

(2nd LD) N. Korea says 2nd attempt to launch spy satellite fails: state media | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · August 24, 2023

(ATTN: ADDS unification ministry official's remarks, details)

By Lee Minji

SEOUL, Aug. 24 (Yonhap) -- North Korea said Thursday its second attempt to launch a spy satellite has ended in failure, citing "an error in the emergency blasting system during the third-stage flight."

Pyongyang said it launched the spy satellite, the Malligyong-1, mounted on a new type of rocket named the Chollima-1, but that it failed due to a problem that is "not a big issue in aspect of the reliability of cascade engines and the system," according to the North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).

North Korea's national aerospace agency plans to probe the cause behind the emergency blasting system malfunction and once again attempt to put a satellite into orbit in October, the KCNA said.

Thursday's launch, conducted at the Sohae satellite launching station, came roughly three months after Pyongyang's first spy satellite launch ended in failure in late May.

This file photo provided by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency on June 1, 2023, shows the launch of the North's new Chollima-1 rocket carrying a military reconnaissance satellite, the Malligyong-1, from Tongchang-ri on the North's west coast the previous day. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

The North had then confirmed the failure on the day of the launch, attributing it to an abnormal starting of the second-stage engine and pledged to carry out its second launch "as soon as possible," without specifying a date.

In a key party meeting held in June, attended by leader Kim Jong-un, the North called the botched attempt the "most serious" shortcoming in the first half that "cannot be overlooked."

A spy satellite is among the high-tech weapons systems that the North's leader Kim Jong-un vowed to develop at a key party congress in 2021, along with a solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile and a nuclear-powered submarine.

An official at South Korea's unification ministry said North Korea probably confirmed the launch failure swiftly, as it had done in May, since it had notified Japan of a plan to launch the satellite between Thursday and Aug. 31.

"North Korea is assumed to have made an assessment that it cannot but disclose the failure as the whole world was paying attention and because it had made a prior notice on launching a satellite," the official told reporters, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Given that the North has announced its next launch will come in October, the official said there is a "high possibility" that the third launch attempt will occur on the occasion of the founding of the North's ruling Workers' Party on Oct. 10.

This Aug. 24, 2023, photo shows people watching a TV report on North Korea's botched space rocket launch at Seoul Station in the capital. (Yonhap)

mlee@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · August 24, 2023

2. KCNA Report on Accident in Second Launch of Military Reconnaissance Satellite

Strike two. I guess with the next one we will learn if the third time's a charm or that the regime has struck out.

KCNA Report on Accident in Second Launch of Military Reconnaissance Satellite

https://kcnawatch.org/newstream/1692828384-581600745/kcna-report-on-accident-in-second-launch-of-military-reconnaissance-satellite/

Date: 24/08/2023 | Source: KCNA.kp (En) | Read original version at source

Pyongyang, August 24 (KCNA) -- The National Aerospace Development Administration (NADA) of the DPRK conducted the second launch of reconnaissance satellite Malligyong-1 aboard the new-type carrier rocket Chollima-1 at the Sohae Satellite Launching Ground in Cholsan County of North Phyongan Province at dawn of August 24, Juche 112 (2023).

The flights of the first and second stages of the rocket were normal, but the launch failed due to an error in the emergency blasting system during the third-stage flight.

The NADA said that it would make clear in a short span of time the reason why the emergency blasting system was operated abnormally.

Explaining that the cause of the relevant accident is not a big problem in aspect of the reliability of cascade engines and the system, the NADA expressed the stand that it would conduct the third reconnaissance satellite launch in October after thoroughly probing the reason and taking measures. -0-

www.kcna.kp (Juche112.8.24.)

3. North Korea’s Second Spy-Satellite Launch Fails in Midflight

I find the claims that one satellite with "spy satellite technology" is crucial to the regime just some hyperbole. The satellite must have the most advanced technology to give it crucial military capabilities. I think the real issue is not the spy satellite itself but the fact that the third stage fo the rocket failed. WHat is the impact on the ICBM development and technology.

Excerpts:

A third reconnaissance-satellite launch would occur in October, according to North Korea’s National Aerospace Development Administration, which conducted the launch.

The testing blunder further delays progress for a spy-satellite technology that is crucial to the Kim Jong Un regime—and a critical part of the dictator’s five-year weapons strategy announced in January 2021.

North Korea’s Second Spy-Satellite Launch Fails in Midflight

Pyongyang cites problems with rocket’s third stage, vows new attempt in October

By Timothy W. Martin

Follow in Seoul and Chieko Tsuneoka

Follow in Tokyo

Updated Aug. 23, 2023 7:09 pm ET

https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/north-korea-carries-out-likely-spy-satellite-launch-dddf4488?mod=Searchresults_pos3&page=1

A television screen at a Seoul railroad station earlier this year showed a North Korean rocket launch. PHOTO: AHN YOUNG-JOON/ASSOCIATED PRESS

North Korea said its second spy-satellite attempt had failed on Thursday, faulting an error in the rocket’s “emergency blasting system” during a latter stage of flight.

The launch’s first and second stages were normal, Pyongyang’s state media reported, but a malfunction occurred during the third stage. The reason for the misstep wasn’t a major issue related to the reliability of the satellite’s engines or system, state media said.

A third reconnaissance-satellite launch would occur in October, according to North Korea’s National Aerospace Development Administration, which conducted the launch.

The testing blunder further delays progress for a spy-satellite technology that is crucial to the Kim Jong Un regime—and a critical part of the dictator’s five-year weapons strategy announced in January 2021.

U.S. 'strongly condemns' N. Korea's latest space launch: White House | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Chang Dong-woo · August 24, 2023

WASHINGTON, Aug. 23 (Yonhap) -- The United States "strongly condemns" North Korea's latest attempt to launch a spy satellite into space, the White House said Wednesday, calling it a "brazen violation" of multiple United Nations Security Council resolutions.

The statement issued by Adrienne Watson, spokesperson of the White House National Security Council, said U.S. President Joe Biden and his national security team are "assessing the situation in close coordination with our allies and partners."

The White House urged all countries to condemn the North's launch and called on Pyongyang to "come to the table for serious negotiations."

It added the U.S. will take "all necessary measures" to ensure the security of America and the defense of South Korea and Japan.

The statement came after Pyongyang announced that its second attempt to launch a spy satellite earlier in the day failed.

The North said it launched the spy satellite, the Malligyong-1, mounted on a new type of rocket named the Chollima-1, but it failed due to an error in the emergency blasting system during the third-stage flight, according to the North's state media.

Pyongyang's previous satellite launch was carried out in May but ended in failure. The North has said it plans to conduct the third space launch attempt in October.

This file photo shows the White House in Washington. (Yonhap)

odissy@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Chang Dong-woo · August 24, 2023

5. U.S. says N. Korean satellite launch violates UNSC resolutions, calls on Pyongyang to engage in dialogue

U.S. says N. Korean satellite launch violates UNSC resolutions, calls on Pyongyang to engage in dialogue | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Duk-Kun Byun · August 24, 2023

By Byun Duk-kun

WASHINGTON, Aug. 23 (Yonhap) -- The United States called on North Korea to refrain from launching additional satellites Wednesday, stressing that North Korean space launch vehicles (SLVs) violate multiple United Nations Security Council resolutions.

A State Department spokesperson urged Pyongyang to engage in serious diplomacy instead.

"Any DPRK launch that uses ballistic missile technology, which would include SLVs used to launch a satellite into space, violates multiple UN Security Council resolutions," the spokesperson told Yonhap News Agency, hours after North Korea unsuccessfully fired a space rocket carrying what it claims to be a military reconnaissance satellite.

"Space launch vehicles incorporate technologies that are identical to, and interchangeable with, those used in ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs)," the spokesperson added.

DPRK stands for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the North's official name. The North's latest space launch marks its second failed attempt to put a claimed satellite into orbit following its first unsuccessful launch on May 31.

Pyongyang says it will make a third attempt in October.

"We urge the DPRK to refrain from further unlawful activity and call on Pyongyang to engage in serious and sustained diplomacy," the spokesperson said, asking not to be identified.

The South Korean military reveals a sunken part of North Korea's ill-fated Chollima-1 rocket at the Navy's 2nd Fleet Command in Pyeongtaek on South Korea's west coast on June 16, 2023, after salvaging it from the Yellow Sea the previous day following the crash on May 31 of the rocket, carrying a military reconnaissance satellite, into the sea. (Pool photo) (Yonhap)

bdk@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Duk-Kun Byun · August 24, 2023

6. The Camp David U.S.-Japan-Korea Trilateral Summit: An Exchange among CSIS Japan and Korea Chairs

CSIS and Victor Cha are the only ones to mention that the Camp David summit included statements on unification.

This is a very important assessment from Dr. Cha:

This is also the first time that Japan has joined the United States in expressing support in writing for a “unified Korean Peninsula that is free and at peace.” As a corollary to the Camp David statement, Yoon in the August 15 Liberation Day speech also made the unprecedented statement regarding the interlinked security of the three allies when he stated the United Nations Command rear bases provided by Japan were critical to South Korea’s defense. These are all major statements that tie the three allies closer together.

The Camp David U.S.-Japan-Korea Trilateral Summit: An Exchange among CSIS Japan and Korea Chairs

Victor Cha

Senior Vice President for Asia and Korea Chair

Image

Christopher B. Johnstone

Senior Adviser and Japan Chair

Image

Ellen Kim

Deputy Director and Senior Fellow, Korea Chair

Image

Nicholas Szechenyi

Senior Fellow, Japan Chair and Deputy Director for Asia

PROGRAMS & PROJECTS

csis.org

The historic summit at Camp David on August 18, 2023, with the leaders of the United States, Japan, and Republic of Korea (ROK), has been touted as opening a new era in trilateral cooperation among the three allies. The meetings produced a Statement of Principles and a Joint Statement that promised a regular schedule of trilateral annual meetings between leaders, not unlike the G7 leaders’ summit and NATO leaders’ summit. Trilateral meetings will also take place annually between foreign ministers, defense ministers, national security advisors and other cabinet-level principals. Cooperation between Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo will cover a wide range of issues including an annual, named set of trilateral military exercises, contingency planning, missile defense, economic security, supply chains, emerging technologies, development assistance, and countering disinformation. In this text compilation, CSIS Japan and Korea Chairs discuss the significance of the Camp David trilateral leaders’ summit in the context of Japan-ROK relations and U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy.

Victor Cha: Historically, dating back to the 1969 Nixon-Sato “Korea Clause,” the United States has wanted strong trilateral security cooperation with its two major allies: Japan and South Korea. The ability to do this, however, has always been stymied by the weakest link—Seoul-Tokyo bilateral relations—plagued by the inability to work past the difficult history of the colonial era. Camp David arguably accomplished this long-sought U.S. goal, but why now? Three factors deserve mention: First, the security environment compels allied cooperation. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, China’s assertiveness against Taiwan and unlawful territorial claims, as well as North Korea’s unending nuclear missile campaign has affected Seoul and Tokyo’s threat perceptions. Second, the efforts by South Korean president Yoon Suk Yeol to improve relations with Japan need to be recognized. When he decided to take on this domestically unpopular foreign policy objective, the bilateral relationship was dysfunctional: Korea was on Japan’s export control list, Japanese assets in Korea were under threat of being nationalized, Korea threatened to end intelligence sharing with Japan, and the two leaders were not talking.

It’s quite astounding how much progress has been made leading up to Camp David in this context: a resolution of forced labor compensation claims, two bilateral summits, and additional meetings on the sidelines of G7 and NATO. Finally, the Biden administration efforts at networking its bilateral alliances have also been critical—whether this is the Quad, AUKUS, or CHIPS alliance (among others). There is a lot to like about the opening of this new era of trilateral cooperation. There is also a lot that China and Russia will not like about it. The question going forward will be whether the three allies can produce deliverables for the ambitious agenda set out at Camp David.

Christopher B. Johnstone: The history of trilateral cooperation is something of a pendulum, with periods of progress in ties that are swiftly reversed after changes in the security environment or in political leadership, particularly in Japan and South Korea. During the last era of strong cooperation, under the administrations of President Barack Obama, President Park Geun-hye, and Prime Minister Abe Shinzo, the three countries broke new ground in expanding information sharing and deepening defense cooperation. By 2016, the countries had a robust trilateral exercise program, with as many as six events in a calendar year in mission areas such as maritime interdiction, ballistic missile defense, and anti-submarine warfare. But all of this was quickly suspended after the elections of President Moon Jae-in in South Korea and President Donald Trump in the United States.

The announcements at Camp David represent an effort to institutionalize ties and reduce the risk of history repeating itself. President Joe Biden, President Yoon Suk Yeol, and Prime Minister Kishida Fumio announced a Commitment to Consult in response to common security challenges; though well short of binding treaty language, this political statement represents the first time that leaders of the countries have acknowledged their security is intertwined. They also announced plans to build a long-term calendar of military exercises, including an annual, named "multi-domain" event that Japanese diplomats privately highlighted as the most significant outcome on the meetings. They also committed to annual meetings of ministers, and to a range of initiatives related to development finance, supply chain security, and the protection of critical technologies—a significant broadening of the trilateral policy agenda compared with the past.

Nothing can fully insulate this partnership from the risk of future reversal, under different political leadership in any of the three countries. But the announcements at Camp David will be difficult for future leaders to repudiate. Walking away from the commitments, principles, and imagery of Camp David would be no small thing for any leader.

Ellen Kim: The Camp David summit set South Korea on a new strategic direction. In terms of South Korea-Japan bilateral relationship, the summit was a defining moment as, like Victor and Chris discussed, Yoon and Kishida, among many things, agreed to consult and coordinate their response actions on regional challenges, provocations, and threats affecting their countries. This Commitment to Consult is unprecedented—especially when historical and territorial disputes remain unresolved between South Korea and Japan. At the strategic level, the trilateral summit also represented an airtight alignment of South Korea’s strategic interests with those of the United States and Japan in the Indo-Pacific and beyond, indicating South Korea’s embrace of an expanded role and responsibility as the “global pivotal state.”

Despite its success last week, the summit received a mixed response in South Korea. On one hand, there is consensus on the historical significance to hold a trilateral summit with the United States and Japan and the need to enhance and institutionalize the trilateral partnership in the face of North Korea’s growing threats. On the other hand, the summit also caused uneasiness in South Korea, raising immediate concerns about China’s potential punitive actions against South Korea and the impact of the enhanced U.S.-ROK-Japan partnership on the deepening strategic ties between North Korea, China, and Russia. In addition, some point to the danger of South Korea’s entrapment in Japan’s security issues with China in the region. Finally, others criticize the summit outcomes for their lack of a domestic consensus. All these reactions suggest that the trilateral partnership will likely face internal and external challenges, and it is critical for the Yoon government to convince the Korean public about why the trilateral partnership is in South Korea’s interest.

Nicholas Szechenyi: Kishida emphasized his “strong feelings” about strengthening Japan-ROK relations during a joint press conference with his counterparts at Camp David. His personal commitment to advancing bilateral ties will prove critical in preventing historical sensitivities from crowding out discussion of the impetus for what he said should be a forward-looking relationship. Supporting his cause is the reality that the underlying rationale for Japan bolstering Japan-ROK ties and the new framework for U.S.-Japan-ROK cooperation is compelling, which bodes well for the durability of this dimension to regional strategy.

Victor noted the urgent need to strengthen deterrence. Ellen stressed the potential to coordinate initiatives across the Indo-Pacific now that the regional strategies of the three countries are increasingly aligned. And Chris referenced common interests in economic security and joint research on emerging technologies critical to future competitiveness. The joint statement also declared a shared commitment to promote respect for human rights in North Korea, a longstanding priority in Seoul and Tokyo that is now jointly affirmed in a trilateral context. In short, trilateral dialogue is no longer just about security issues in northeast Asia. The statement of principles outlined an affirmative agenda for supporting regional stability and prosperity set to enhance the leadership credentials of all three countries.

One question already surfacing in Japan is how the institutionalization of trilateral cooperation might affect Japan-China relations. Like many frontline states, Japan’s strategy is to balance deterrence with interaction to sustain diplomatic and economic ties. Kishida has expressed interest in a summit meeting with Xi Jinping, and his government recently announced plans to resume trilateral dialogue with South Korea for the first time since 2019. Thanks to the Camp David Summit, Japan and South Korea can now pursue such diplomacy from a position of strength, strategically aligned and willing to demonstrate that the U.S.-led trilateral alliance network in Northeast Asia cannot be broken. Such solidarity could lead to more pragmatic dialogue with Beijing.

VC: Regarding reactions to Camp David, the domestic-political criticism in Japan and Korea is to be expected to divide along political lines with opposition parties in both camps more opposed than not. It would be interesting to parse the polling to understand better how independents in each country react to these new trilateral commitments. Regarding China’s response as raised by Nick and Ellen, I tend to believe that this will only strengthen both Seoul and Tokyo’s hand in dealing with Beijing. China may not be happy with the trilateral tightening, as Wang Yi ineloquently stated, but at the same time, they will need to counter with their own diplomacy. This is why I expect that Beijing will lean forward on the proposal for a resumption of the Plus Three leaders’ meeting in Seoul rather than walk away from it.

I think there are some other points in the trilateral that received less attention but warrant recognition. Japan and Korea agreed to reduce energy dependence on Russia, which opens opportunities for strategic energy cooperation among the allies in civil nuclear and gas. As far as I can tell, this is the first time that South Korea supported Japan’s position on abductees as stated in the clause on addressing North Korean human rights abuses. This is also the first time that Japan has joined the United States in expressing support in writing for a “unified Korean Peninsula that is free and at peace.” As a corollary to the Camp David statement, Yoon in the August 15 Liberation Day speech also made the unprecedented statement regarding the interlinked security of the three allies when he stated the United Nations Command rear bases provided by Japan were critical to South Korea’s defense. These are all major statements that tie the three allies closer together.

CJ: I’m struck by how both Yoon and Kishida appeared to be mindful of the political environment facing the other and conveyed messages intended to be helpful. Asked about Japan’s plans to release treated water from the Fukushima nuclear power plant destroyed by the tsunami in 2011, Yoon said, “internationally recognized and reliable IAEA’s [International Atomic Energy Agency] investigation results are something that we can trust”—an endorsement of Japan’s approach and an implicit repudiation of vocal Chinese criticism that IAEA testing is not enough. Securing South Korea’s endorsement at Camp David is significant for Kishida. As Nick noted, Kishida was eager to underscore his own commitment to ties with the ROK, in response to a question during the joint press conference about perceptions of Japan’s “passivity” in responding to Yoon’s overtures: “I have strong feelings about strengthening bilateral relationships between the ROK and Japan. I share that with President Yoon . . . friendship with President Yoon and a relationship of trust.”

There are still challenges ahead. Cooperation on economic security and supply chains is easier to announce than to execute, given the reality that United States, Japanese, and Korean firms are often direct competitors in high tech industries like semiconductors. The joint statement includes no reference to limits on outbound investment into China, a U.S. priority that both Tokyo and Seoul are hesitant to endorse. And Japan’s interest in resuming dialogue with North Korea on abductions, which the joint statement implicitly endorses, could introduce seams among the three countries if it gains traction; Japanese diplomats privately note that there is “daylight” between Tokyo and Seoul on this question. But the mutual awareness of the political dynamics confronting each leader was remarkable.

EK: In the coming weeks, the trilateral partnership will be put to the test on two issues. One is, as Chris mentioned, Japan’s plan to release treated water from the Fukushima nuclear power plants, which is set to begin from August 24. The Yoon government expressed “respect” for the IAEA investigation results but also made clear that it “will place top priority on [Korean] people’s health and safety.” Yet, public concerns are still deep and strong in Korea, and addressing this will demand close communication and cooperation between Seoul and Tokyo based on newly established trust between their two leaders. The other is how the three countries will respond to North Korea’s military satellite launch, as Pyongyang notified its planned launch between August 24 and 31. This schedule also coincides with the annual U.S.-ROK joint military exercise, which will be joined by the United Nations Command sending states. Ironically, Japan’s discharge plan does not bode well for the bilateral relations between Seoul and Tokyo and has a potential to complicate the trilateral partnership while North Korea’s provocation will serve to legitimize the necessity of the trilateral partnership.

NS: There are certainly near-term challenges that will test the vitality of Japan-ROK ties and the trilateral network. But it’s noteworthy that the Camp David agenda includes a fundamental pillar of the U.S. alliance network in Asia that will prove impactful over the long term: a shared commitment to providing public goods to the Indo-Pacific region. Joint initiatives on humanitarian aid, maritime security, development finance, and other issues reflect a sustained commitment not just to their respective national interests, but to the collective interests of regional states. Concrete deliverables in these areas should also help define the new era of trilateral cooperation proclaimed at Camp David.

Victor Cha is senior vice president for Asia and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. Christopher Johnstone is senior adviser and Japan Chair at CSIS. Ellen Kim is deputy director and senior fellow of the Korea Chair at CSIS. Nicholas Szechenyi is a senior fellow with the Japan Chair and deputy director for Asia at CSIS.

Commentary is produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take specific policy positions. Accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s).

csis.org

7. S.Koreans Need to Take Civil Defense Drills More Seriously

Just as they need to take unification more seriously.

Seven decades of successfully deterring a return to hostilities and direct conflict has resulted in complacency and an uninformed acceptance of the status quo.

S.Koreans Need to Take Civil Defense Drills More Seriously

english.chosun.com

August 24, 2023 14:12

South Korea held a nationwide civil defense drill on Wednesday for the first time in six years, but the response has been disgraceful. It takes only six minutes for a North Korean ballistic missile to fall on Seoul, which means it could land in the capital even before the air raid sirens stop, But during the latest drill, many people sauntered leisurely down the streets even as the sirens wailed, and the malls were packed with visitors. Commuters tussled with civil servants who tried to stop them from leaving subway, and in one apartment complex with 1,200 households, only a single child came to the underground shelter for the drill.

The organization was also poor. Most people were oblivious to the location of the nearest shelter. The Ministry of the Interior and Public Safety shows the locations on its website, but there is no guarantee of internet connectivity in an emergency. Traffic was halted only on three major roads, while cars were free to move around most parts of the capital. Citizens are not taking the drill seriously, and the government is only interested in putting on a show.

Training for a North Korean nuclear attack was also not enough. Brief sirens were the only warnings during the drill. People will have to seek refuge atop high buildings in the event of a chemical or biological weapons attack ad head to underground bunkers in a nuclear attack. But most South Koreans are ignorant on that and do not even know how to put on a gas mask or use a fire extinguisher.

The purpose of such drills is to repeat them until they become second nature. Koreans need to get serious. These drills are designed to protect their lives.

Read this article in Korean

english.chosun.com

8. What to Do about North Korean Nuclear Weapons

Download the 20 page paper here: https://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/research/docs/Ford_WebreadyPDF.pdf

The author provides useful background and history of north Korea's nuclear weapons program.

He offers three ways to deal with this threat.

DOUBLE DOWN AND TRY AGAIN, HARDER?

The first option would simply be, in effect, to “double down” and “try again, harder” to make a success of the kind of denuclearization diplomacy US officials have pursued with the Agreed Framework, in the Six-Party Talks, and in President Trump’s ill-conceived and ill-fated summitry with Kim Jong-un.29 I fear, however, that this approach would amount to little more than what is apocryphally attributed to Albert Einstein as a definition of insanity: “doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.”

“ARMS CONTROL”? But what about the “arms control” option? Might it be possible—as US Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Bonnie Jenkins suggested late last year44— at least to negotiate limits on North Korea’s nuclear program?

Kim Jong-un, at least, would presumably like this idea, for it would represent an unearned diplomatic windfall for North Korea perhaps even more significant than the one given the Kim dynasty by President Trump’s summitry. But would it be a good idea? And could it work?

My hunch is that it wouldn’t, and it couldn’t. (And I am not alone. Jenkins’s suggestion about arms control with the DPRK was promptly caveated even by the Arms Control Association and was effectively walked back by other State Department officials, including one of her own subordinates.45) Let’s unpack some of the reasons why the idea seems so problematic.

THE “PAIN BOX” With those two alternatives looking decidedly unattractive, I come now to the third—one that, while still notably unattractive, is nonetheless on the whole arguably the “least bad” of these contending approaches. This option is what I refer to as the “pain box.”

Under this approach, we would (explicitly or implicitly) give up on the fool’s errand of negotiated denuclearization, while also eschewing the practical and moral hazard nightmares of trying to make arms control negotiation with North Korea work effectively. Instead, we and our partners in the international community would simply resign ourselves to a prolonged policy of indefinite duration, under which we would work to keep the DPRK in as isolated and constrained a “box” as possible. Continued or increased sanctions and other pressures would aim both to impose at least some de facto, indirect, resource-based constraints on North Korea’s nuclear, missile, and other military programs and to make the example of DPRK nuclear weapons proliferation as unattractive as possible to other would-be NPT violators and nuclear weapons proliferators around the world.

He concludes with this point on China:

But we need to be realistic about China’s role and to admit to ourselves that China probably does not want to see North Korean denuclearization. I have no doubt that Beijing does not want to see war or utter chaos on the Korean Peninsula. In fact, that might represent something of a nightmare for the CCP, in terms of a massively stepped-up US presence and operational military activities along China’s border, potential mass refugee flows into the PRC, possible DPRK nuclear weapons use, and plausibly a perceived need for China itself to intervene—either (once again) to save the Middle Kingdom’s North Korean vassal state from destruction at American and ROK hands or simply to seize and secure the DPRK’s nuclear weapons before they fall into US (or South Korean!) control.

But not wanting to see a war is not the same thing as desiring denuclearization, and Beijing seems perfectly happy with a nuclear weapons–possessing DPRK, provided that things don’t quite spiral into chaos. Whereas China might to some extent share North Korean worries about potential regime vulnerability there if the Kim dynasty relinquished its nuclear arsenal, the CCP would appear to be pleased with a nuclearized status quo.

What the author fails to identify is course of action four: a human rights upfront approach with a sophisticated information and influence campaign and the pursuit of a free and unified Korea. He could have referenced Ambassador Joseph's "National Strategy to Counter North Korea" - https://nipp.org/information_series/robert-joseph-robert-collins-joseph-detrani-nicholas-eberstadt-olivia-enos-david-maxwell-and-greg-scarlatoiu-national-strategy-for-countering-north-korea-no-545-january-23-2023/

What to Do about North Korean Nuclear Weapons

https://www.hoover.org/research/what-do-about-north-korean-nuclear-weapons?utm

Recounting the history of North Korea’s nuclear weapons program and the failure of past efforts at negotiated “denuclearization,” this essay explores the options of (1) continuing with denuclearization diplomacy or (2) pursuing “arms control” with North Korea but instead recommends (3) a policy of prolonged pressure and isolation to limit the development of North Korea’s capabilities as much as possible and make its example unattractive to future would-be proliferators.

Wednesday, August 23, 2023 1 min read

By: Christopher Ford

9. Violent crime is rising in North Korea amid food shortages

We need to be wary of potential internal instability in north Korea.

Keep this in mind – Regime Collapse: loss of central governing effectiveness by the party combined with loss of coherency and support of the military

Violent crime is rising in North Korea amid food shortages

https://www.rfa.org/english/news/korea/crime-08232023123738.html

Police seem unable to stem increase, and residents say underlying causes are not addressed.

By Lee Myung Chul for RFA Korean

2023.08.23

A North Korean helicopter flies over an area flooded by Tropical Storm Khanun in Ogye-ri, Kangwon province, in this undated photo released from North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on Aug. 14, 2023.

KCNA via KNS/AFP

Murder and other violent crimes are on the rise in North Korea amid spreading hunger, but authorities have had little success in stemming the violence, residents in the country say.

Most North Koreans are struggling to survive and get food on their tables amid poor harvests and a weak economy still recovering from COVID-19 shutdowns, and sources say the pressures have led to an uptick in weapons-related offenses.

“Judicial authorities are strengthening controls by mobilizing special riot police, inspection teams, and police officers to crack down on residents’ passage at night, but criminal acts are not decreasing,” said a resident of North Hamgyong province who, like others interviewed by RFA Korean for this report, spoke on condition of anonymity citing security concerns.

“Last month, while staying at a friend’s house to earn some money in Kyongsong county, a man stabbed the friend in the stomach with a knife because the friend asked him to pay for lodging and meals,” he said. “Cases of injuring people with weapons like this are increasing recently.”

Intelligence collected by South Korean authorities indicate crime is rising north of the border and starvation is spreading.

In May, the country’s National Intelligence Service reported to the National Assembly Intelligence Committee that violent crimes in North Korea had tripled compared to the same period last year, while the country’s suicide rate increased by 40%.

South Korea’s National Intelligence Service said last week that the number of people who died of starvation in North Korea from January to July this year more than doubled compared to the average over the past five years as the food situation in North Korea worsened.

North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un visiting a field affected by Tropical Storm Khanun in Ogye-ri, Kangwon province, in this undated photo released from North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on Aug. 14, 2023. Credit: KCNA via KNS/AFP

In another incident, earlier this month, a man stabbed someone to death when he was caught trying to steal a cellphone from someone who was drunk and sleeping in a park, the resident said.

“The reason why the number of these cases – murder using a weapon after a trivial argument – is increasing recently is that life is becoming more difficult day by day,” he said. “The difficulties have led to emotional outbursts. Now, residents are constantly anxious and reluctant to go out, especially when it gets dark.”

The local social security department has mobilized special riot police and random patrols, both day and night, “to devise measures to prevent incidents, including criminal acts, in advance,” the source said, “but violent criminal acts are not decreasing.”

The resident said that the Workers’ Party Central Committee has ordered judicial institutions to deal with the problem, but noted that doing so had become increasingly challenging “because people’s personalities have become very sensitive due to difficult living conditions.”

Even schools are unsafe

A resident of Ryanggang province, who declined to be named, told RFA that the local populace has also become fearful of violent crime there amid a spate of attacks.

“A few days ago, a person who was arguing over a trivial matter on the road took out a knife he had already been carrying and stabbed another person’s leg and body, causing injuries,” he said. “There are so many criminal acts involving weapons that people are afraid to even speak face to face.”

The source added that violent crimes are also occurring at schools, leading staff to conduct inspections of students’ bags and other belongings.

“But these projects are only temporary measures, and there is a limit to eliminating [the crimes], no matter how much the judicial authorities try to control them,” he said.

Translated by Claire Shinyoung Oh Lee. Edited by Joshua Lipes and Malcolm Foster.

10. Camp David Marked a ‘New Era’ in Japan-Korea-US Relations. Can It Endure?

Conclusion:

Biden, Yoon, and Kishida were right to take steps to deepen trilateral ties, but only their successors’ actions can demonstrate that the Camp David agreements mark an enduring new chapter in trilateral relations.

Camp David Marked a ‘New Era’ in Japan-Korea-US Relations. Can It Endure?

Long-term institutionalization of trilateral cooperation can only truly take root after it has survived political transitions in the United States, South Korea, and Japan.

thediplomat.com · by Troy Stangarone · August 23, 2023

Following South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol’s efforts to reset relations with Japan earlier this year, the door to deeper trilateral cooperation between South Korea, Japan, and the United States has also opened. At the Camp David summit on August 18, the leaders of the three countries laid out a vision for deeper trilateral cooperation in the Indo-Pacific and beyond.

Whether these efforts are the beginning of “a new era in partnership” among the three nations, as U.S. President Joe Biden remarked, or a temporary period of deeper cooperation will be the ultimate test for the progress made at Camp David.

Disputes over history have inhibited trilateral cooperation in the past. The main objective of the Camp David summit was to institutionalize cooperation among South Korea, Japan, and the United States in order for it to endure future periods of tension. The three leaders attempted to achieve this through three documents, designed to set the foundation for future cooperation – the Spirit of Camp David Joint Statement, the Camp David Principles, and the Commitment to Consult. Taken together, they lay out a vision for cooperation, describe the principles that will underpin that cooperation, and make a pledge to work together during crises in the region.

A Foundation for Sustained Trilateral Cooperation

Despite recent tensions in Japan-South Korea relations, there is a history of trilateral cooperation between the United States, South Korea, and Japan. The Trilateral Coordination and Oversight Group, for example, was established in 1999 to deal with the threat from North Korea, but was later subsumed in the Six Party Talks. The Defense Trilateral Talks, which are held at the deputy defense minister level, began in 1994, lasted until 2002, and were later revived. The outcome of the Camp David summit was not just to widen and deepen the level of trilateral cooperation, but also to raise the level of official representation among the three governments.

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In order to lay a foundation for continued cooperation, the three leaders committed in the Spirit of Camp David Joint Statement to hold not only annual meetings among themselves, but for their foreign ministers, defense ministers, and national security advisors to also meet annually. Commerce and industry ministers will begin to meet annually, as will the three finance ministers. The three leaders also agreed to a new Trilateral Indo-Pacific Dialogue to coordinate Indo-Pacific strategies.

Coupled with the establishment of annualized meetings is the Commitment to Consult. While not creating new security commitments, something the document is explicit about, the three countries have agreed to quickly consult with each other in crises, engage in enhanced information sharing, and coordinate their messaging and response to any regional challenges or provocations.

In addition to enhancing communications, the three countries have agreed to deepen their cooperation in the Indo-Pacific in two areas. The first area is development finance cooperation. The United States, South Korea, and Japan intend to increase coordination on development assistance in the Indo-Pacific, specifically in areas related to carbon neutrality, supply chain resilience, and information and communications technology. The partners also plan to develop a new Trilateral Maritime Security Cooperation Framework on capacity building in Southeast Asia and the Pacific Island states to improve maritime law enforcement and domain awareness.

The three countries also plan to develop new mechanisms for cooperation on economic issues. In the area of supply chain resilience, they plan to launch a pilot early warning system to share information about disruptions, including from economic coercion, to inputs for critical products such as semiconductors and EV batteries. They have also committed to deeper cooperation in the prevention of technological theft, the development of technology standards, collaboration between national research laboratories, and an alignment of exports controls – an area that will require South Korea to develop new export control authorities.

These are just some examples of how the Biden, Yoon, and Kishida administrations are institutionalizing trilateral cooperation through increased meetings, policy alignment, and coordination mechanisms. The totality of this engagement may be the Spirit of Camp David’s strength. While nothing is irreversible, it would create a significant and damaging break in cooperation among the three partners should one side cease cooperation in areas agreed to at Camp David. Instead, during potential future periods of tension it is more likely that cooperation would be scaled back in certain areas, but not all. In essence, the baseline for cooperation during periods of tensions has been raised.

In a similar sense, institutionalization raises the costs to South Korea and Japan of engaging in bilaterally disruptive policies. In response to adverse Supreme Court rulings in South Korea on the issue of forced labor, for example, Japan imposed restrictions in 2019 on key chemicals for semiconductor production and removed South Korea from its list of trusted trade partners. These restrictions were removed this year as part of the rapprochement between South Korea and Japan. The hope going forward is that institutionalization of trilateral cooperation, while not eliminating the possibility of either country taking actions against the other, will disincentive them from doing so.

However, the ambitions for trilateral cooperation could also create a weakness. Increasing cooperation requires increased resources and adds complexity. It will be important for Biden, Yoon, and Kishida to demonstrate deliverable progress to ensure that future leaders and their publics see the benefit of maintaining trilateral cooperation.

What This Means for South Korea

The Camp David agreements constitute a significant step for South Korea. The Spirit of Camp David document commits the three countries to seek alignment in their objectives and their actions. In recent decades, South Korea has largely followed a strategy of looking to China as an economic partner and the United States as a security partner. The new agreements begin to move South Korea away from that model as it deepens cooperation with the United States and Japan on economic security, supply chain resilience, and technology. One could argue that this was happening with or without the Camp David agreements.

The shift has divided political opinion in South Korea. Progressive dailies more closely aligned with the political opposition in South Korea have raised concerns about the new agreements putting South Korea on the front lines of a new Cold War, heightening tensions with China and North Korea, and lessening Seoul’s room to maneuver. They also expressed concerns that South Korea’s national interests may become subordinate to the interests of the United States and Japan, especially in the areas of history and the territorial dispute over Dokdo (claimed by Japan as Takeshima).

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In contrast, conservative dailies more aligned with Yoon have been more favorable toward the agreements, with one praising the accords as creating a grouping more influential than the Quad or AUKUS. However, one paper did raise the concern that deeper cooperation on regional security issues means that North Korea moves from being the primary security threat to one of many issues.

Future Prospects for Trilateral Cooperation

While much of the focus on trilateral cooperation is on the ability of South Korea and Japan to continue improving relations, an additional threat to deeper trilateral cooperation comes from uncertain politics in the United States.

In recent years, U.S. domestic politics has shifted on issues such as trade, a policy area that could have been utilized by the Biden administration to deepen trilateral ties. A trilateral free trade agreement (FTA) would have been a much more significant step than the Camp David agreements toward cementing relations among the three countries and would have made economic sense because it would bring together three high-tech economies that play significant roles in the supply chains for semiconductors, automobiles, steel, and clean tech. However, the idea of trilateral FTA is a non-starter due to current U.S. politics, in which any discussion of a new trade agreement would be dead on arrival within either political party.

The prospect of significant political change after the 2024 elections in the United States only highlights how Washington, rather than being a force for bringing the three countries together, could become the weak link in trilateral cooperation.

Long-term institutionalization of trilateral cooperation can only truly take root after it has survived political transitions in the United States, South Korea, and Japan. It was the transition to President Moon Jae-in in South Korea that unraveled the agreement on the comfort women between Moon’s predecessor, Park Geun-hye and Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo. It was Abe’s return to power that lead to a reconsideration in Japan of the Kono Statement, Japan’s original apology for its actions toward the comfort women. Similarly, in the United States the transition from Barack Obama to Donald Trump demonstrated how fragile international arrangements and commitments can be.

Biden, Yoon, and Kishida were right to take steps to deepen trilateral ties, but only their successors’ actions can demonstrate that the Camp David agreements mark an enduring new chapter in trilateral relations.

CONTRIBUTING AUTHOR

Troy Stangarone

Troy Stangarone is Senior Director and Fellow at the Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI). The views expressed here are the author’s alone.

thediplomat.com · by Troy Stangarone · August 23, 2023

11. State security agency branches on border use family members of defectors to bust remittance brokers

I am reminded of that irritating life insurance commercial and the "three C's". What does Kim Jong Un demand? Control, control, control.

The regime is doing everything it can to crack down on markets and the donju (money) class and of course the use of foreign currency. This is one indirect approach to contribute to that crackdown and attempts at control

State security agency branches on border use family members of defectors to bust remittance brokers

Some people complain that “security agents are engaged in a sophisticated money-making operation, using crackdowns as an excuse," a source told Daily NK

By Lee Chae Un - 2023.08.24 10:00am

dailynk.com

State security agency branches on border use family members of defectors to bust remittance brokers | Daily NK English

FILE PHOTO: Hyesan, Yanggang Province. (Daily NK)

Ministry of State Security branches in regions along the border with China have recently been making use of the family members of defectors to identify and catch remittance brokers, a source in North Hamgyong Province told Daily NK on Friday, speaking on condition of anonymity for security reasons.

On Aug. 6, for example, Hoeryong security agents arrested a remittance broker as he was delivering money to the family of a defector. The broker met with misfortune when he visited the home of the defector’s family, unaware that it was a trap set by the Ministry of State Security.

“Prior to this, the Ministry of State Security visited family members of the defector and threatened them into getting money out of the defector by lying about somebody needing money for an operation,” the source said. “A remittance broker went to the home of the family to deliver the cash and security agents arrested him on the spot.”

The security agents confiscated the RMB 10,000 (USD 1,390) from the man, along with two foreign-made mobile phones he used to confirm remittances. The remittance broker was taken to a local branch of the Ministry of State Security, where he is currently detained.

In recent months, North Korea has been carrying out intensive crackdowns foreign mobile phone users as part of efforts to control the flow of information entering and leaving the country. Despite the crackdowns, people continue to use mobile phones on the sly. As a result, the authorities are now working hard to nab users of foreign-made mobile phones by using the family members of defectors, the source said.

“Because so many people were caught during the COVID-19 lockdown, the remaining mobile phone users are using their devices in very clandestine ways. Faced with difficulties catching Chinese mobile phone users, local branches of the Ministry of State Security are using the family members of defectors to lure remittance brokers into receiving money, with agents busting the brokers when they deliver the cash.”

From the Ministry of State Security’s perspective, they are killing two birds with one stone — not only do they nab people using foreign mobile phones, but they also get to keep the cash sent by the defectors, the source claimed.

In fact, as rumors spread that the state security agency is arresting remittance brokers using the family members of defectors, some people have even complained that “security agents are engaged in a sophisticated money-making operation, using crackdowns as an excuse.”

“Even a few days ago, an individual sent by a remittance broker who was delivering money sent from South Korea was arrested by security agents,” the source said. “Remittance brokers are now avoiding contact with people they don’t know, which will make it grow harder for the family members of defectors to receive money.”

Translated by David Black. Edited by Robert Lauler.

Daily NK works with a network of sources who live inside North Korea, China and elsewhere. Their identities remain anonymous due to security concerns. More information about Daily NK’s reporting partner network and information gathering activities can be found on our FAQ page here.

Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.

Read in Korean

Lee Chae Un

Lee Chae Un is one of Daily NK’s full-time journalists. She can be reached at dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.

dailynk.com

12. [ANALYSIS] North Korea fails again to launch satellite but appears to have solved cause of 1st failure

[ANALYSIS] North Korea fails again to launch satellite but appears to have solved cause of 1st failure

The Korea Times · August 24, 2023

A file image of a North Korean rocket launch is seen on a TV screen during a news program at Seoul Railway Station in Seoul, Thursday. North Korea said on Thursday that its second attempt to launch a spy satellite failed. AP-Yonhap

Pyongyang vows third attempt in two months after improving flight termination system

By Jung Min-ho

North Korea said, Thursday, that its second attempt to put a reconnaissance satellite into space failed, but the country immediately vowed to try again in two months, demonstrating its determination to push ahead with the project its leader Kim Jong-un labeled as a "top priority."

Citing the National Aerospace Development Administration, the North's official Korean Central News Agency reported that the first and second stages of the launch were successful, but an error in the "emergency blasting system" during the third-stage flight led to another failure.

The space agency said the problem was "not a big issue in terms of the reliability of cascade engines and the system."

That means North Korea has solved the key technical cause of the failure of the first launch and knows the area where improvements have to be made to achieve success, according to Chang Young-keun, a rocket scientist at the Korea Research Institute for National Strategy, a think tank.

"Given the success of the first stage, pairing and the second stage separations, it seems that North Korea found solutions for the problem that caused the first failure," he told The Korea Times. "What it referred to as the 'emergency blasting system' was probably its flight termination system, which was believed to have exploded unintentionally due to technical errors. But the October launch announcement suggests that it is now certain that there is no major problem with rocket separation (mechanism) and a relaunch is possible immediately (without further checking)."

North Korea launched a military spy satellite, the Malligyong-1, mounted on the Chollima-1 rocket, at around 3:50 a.m. from the Tongchang-ri area on its west coast.

South Korean soldiers participate in a drill as part of their joint Ulchi Freedom Shield exercises with U.S. troops in Paju, Gyeonggi Province, Thursday. AP-Yonhap

South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said it detected the launch immediately and tracked the rocket flying above international waters off its west coast. The military also said aircraft and vessels were deployed in a search and retrieval operation for the wreckage.

At an emergency National Security Council meeting, President Yoon Suk Yeol condemned the launch as a "serious violation" of the U.N. Security Council's resolutions, saying the North Korean regime wastes a significant portion of its resources on "reckless provocations" when ordinary North Koreans are suffering and "dying from starvation."

Yoon also told his officials to share Seoul's analysis of the launch with Washington and Tokyo. Kim Gunn, South Korea's top nuclear negotiator, and his U.S. and Japanese counterparts ― Sung Kim and Hiroyuki Namazu ― criticized Pyongyang for the provocation during a trilateral call, according to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Under a trilateral pact signed by Yoon and his U.S. and Japanese counterparts, Joe Biden and Fumio Kishida last week, the three countries vowed to strengthen their partnership in responding to common threats in the Indo-Pacific region, such as North Korea's nuclear development.

The North's latest provocation comes as the South Korean and U.S. militaries hold joint Ulchi Freedom Shield (UFS) training exercises. A JCS official said the military will continue to focus on the training as part of its efforts to build up "overwhelming force" against North Korea.

The launch failure means that North Korea will mark the Sept. 9 anniversary of its founding without anything new to boast about.

This photo released Thursday shows North Korean leader Kim Jong-un inspecting a tractor factory in Nampo, a port city on the west coast of North Korea, the previous day. Yonhap

According to Oh Gyeong-seob, a senior analyst at the Korea Institute for National Unification, a South Korean think tank, the space project had probably been expedited excessively to be used as propaganda touting the North Korean leader's achievement. After that failed, the political mood there must be tense, he added.

"In very aggressive terms, Kim recently rebuked his premier and other top officials in charge of food management. There would be a sweeping purge against many high-ranking officials, including those responsible for the space project," he said.

A spy satellite is among the high-tech weapons that Kim vowed to develop, along with solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missiles and a nuclear-powered submarine.

The Korea Times · August 24, 2023

13. North Korea slams South Korea-US-Japan summit as 'Asian version of NATO'

Kim Jong Un is feeling the pressure of his failed political warfare and blackmail diplomacy strategies.

North Korea slams South Korea-US-Japan summit as 'Asian version of NATO'

The Korea Times · August 24, 2023

A TV screen shows a report of North Korea's rocket launch with file image of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un during a news program at the Seoul Railway Station in Seoul, Thursday. AP-Yonhap

North Korea on Thursday denounced the trilateral agreement among South Korea, the United States, and Japan as "the Asian version of NATO," and the U.S. scheme to encircle Russia and China.

Pyongyang's defense minister, Kang Sun-nam, issued a statement after the leaders of Seoul, Washington and Tokyo held a trilateral summit at Camp David last week, and agreed to beef up cooperation to deal with North Korea's nuclear and missile threats.

"The recent confab brought to light the U.S. sinister intention to lay big siege to China and Russia by tightly binding the hands and feet of Japan and the ROK (Republic of Korea), the primary bullet shield for realizing its greedy ambition for world domination, to the Asian version of NATO," read the English statement carried by the Korean Central News Agency, referring to South Korea's official name, the Republic of Korea.

It was the first statement by a high-ranking North Korean official following an anonymous commentary that ran on the state media two days earlier accusing the trilateral summit of adopting a series of documents to "detail, plan and formulate" nuclear war provocations.

Kang slammed Washington for "driving the Ukraine crisis to the brink of world nuclear war" by sending weapons, including F-16 fighter jets, to Ukraine, and for slandering "the normal cooperation between sovereign states in the field of national defense for peace and security," in its thinly-veiled response to rumors over Pyongyang's arms trade with Russia.

The defense chief said the North will "resolutely take the overwhelming and preemptive armed counteraction," and "redouble the militant friendship and solidarity with Russia" to fight against their common enemy.

It was seen as the North's latest efforts to boost ties with China and Russia against Seoul forging stronger security cooperation with Washington and Tokyo amid the Russia-Ukraine war and intensifying China-U.S. rivalry.

The statement came after the North's second attempt to put a spy satellite into space failed, three months after its first launch crashed into the sea. (Yonhap)

The Korea Times · August 24, 2023

14. Yoon orders NSC to share analysis of NK launch with US, Japan

Yoon orders NSC to share analysis of NK launch with US, Japan

The Korea Times · August 24, 2023

President Yoon Suk Yeol presides over a National Security Council meeting at the presidential office in Seoul, Aug. 21. Yonhap

President Yoon Suk Yeol ordered the National Security Council on Thursday to share its analysis of North Korea's botched space rocket launch with the United States and Japan and to prepare against possible additional provocations by the North, his office said.

Yoon gave the instructions as he was briefed on North Korea's second launch of what it claimed was a military reconnaissance satellite that ended in failure earlier in the day.

"The president was briefed on the NSC standing committee's discussions, and ordered that the agreements reached at the Camp David South Korea-U.S.-Japan summit be thoroughly implemented, such as the real-time sharing of missile warning data, increased missile defense cooperation, and regular trilateral exercises," the presidential office said in a press release, referring to an emergency NSC meeting convened after the launch.

"He also ordered that today's analysis results be shared with the United States and Japan, and for thorough preparations against the possibility of further provocations by North Korea," it added.

The launch came as South Korea and the U.S. have been holding joint military exercises that North Korea condemns as invasion rehearsals. The North blamed the botched launch on an error in the emergency blasting system during the third-stage flight and vowed to conduct another launch in October.

The NSC meeting was led by National Security Adviser Cho Tae-yong and attended by Foreign Minister Park Jin, Unification Minister Kim Yung-ho, Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup, National Intelligence Service Director Kim Kyou-hyun and other officials.

The council "strongly condemned" the launch as a "grave violation" of U.N. Security Council resolutions banning any North Korean launch using ballistic missile technology.

"The participants noted that North Korea failed again at a so-called 'space vehicle' launch following the one in May, and deplored that it is shifting the responsibility for the economic mismanagement and broken public livelihoods that have forced its people into starvation and death, to lower-level officials, and squandering the little resources it has on reckless provocations," the presidential office said.

The council vowed to make North Korea pay the due price for its repeated violations of UNSC resolutions and to work together with the international community, including the U.S. and Japan, to stop North Korea's illegal actions, including exploitation of labor exports, cyber hacking and maritime smuggling. (Yonhap)

The Korea Times · August 24, 2023

15. FBI says North Korean hackers preparing to cash out after high-profile crypto hacks

Again, the all purpose sword of Kim's cyber warfare.

FBI says North Korean hackers preparing to cash out after high-profile crypto hacks | TechCrunch

TechCrunch · by Carly Page · August 23, 2023

The U.S. government said it believes North Korean hackers are preparing to cash out millions of dollars stolen during a spate of high-profile crypto hacks.

On Tuesday, the FBI warned cryptocurrency companies about recent blockchain activity connected to the theft of hundreds of millions of dollars in cryptocurrency by malicious actors affiliated with the North Korea-backed Lazarus Group, also known as APT38 and “TraderTraitor.”

The FBI said that over the past 24 hours, it had tracked approximately 1,580 bitcoin — worth more than $40 million — that the North Korean hackers are currently holding in six separate crypto wallets. The FBI said these funds were stolen during “several” cryptocurrency heists.

This includes the theft of virtual currency from Atomic Wallet in June, which saw the hackers compromise an estimated 5,500 customer wallets to steal funds worth more than $100 million. Blockchain analysis firm Elliptic previously said it assessed with a “high level of confidence” that the Lazarus Group was behind the attack, and noted that the laundering of the stolen crypto assets followed “a series of steps that exactly match those employed to launder the proceeds of past hacks perpetrated by Lazarus Group.”

The FBI also linked Lazarus Group hackers to the theft of $60 million in virtual currency from centralized crypto payment provider AlphaPo and $37 million from cryptocurrency wallet provider CoinsPaid.

CoinsPaid, which was forced to halt operations for four days due to the incident, said in a July post-mortem of the attack that it suspected that Lazarus Group was responsible.

The wallet provider also confirmed that it was compromised after hackers contacted CoinsPaid employees via LinkedIn with high-paying job offers — a popular tactic employed by North Korea — to entice them into downloading malware-laced JumpCloud software. JumpCloud was recently breached by North Korean hackers as part of efforts to target cryptocurrency customers, which multiple cybersecurity firms linked to Lazarus Group.

In its advisory, the FBI warned that the North Korean hackers are preparing to cash out the $40 million in stolen funds in the coming days. Crypto organizations are urged to examine recent blockchain data linked to six Bitcoin addresses shared by the FBI and “be vigilant in guarding against transactions directly with, or derived from the addresses.”

“The FBI will continue to expose and combat the DPRK’s use of illicit activities — including cybercrime and virtual currency theft — to generate revenue for the regime,” the FBI added. North Korea is known for using crypto thefts to fund its internationally sanctioned nuclear weapons program.

Lazarus Group has been tied to several other crypto exchange hacks, including the theft of $100 million in crypto assets from Harmony’s Horizon Bridge and the theft of $625 million in cryptocurrency from the Ronin Network, an Ethereum-based sidechain made for the popular play-to-earn game Axie Infinity.

According to a recent report from blockchain intelligence company TRM Labs, North Korean hackers have stolen almost $2 billion in cryptocurrency since 2018 over more than 30 attacks — including almost $1 billion in 2022 alone. Lazarus Group has stolen approximately $200 million in 2023 so far, according to the report, accounting for over 20% of all stolen crypto this year.

The U.S. government has announced a $10 million reward for information on members of state-sponsored North Korean threat groups, including the notorious Lazarus Group.

North Korean hackers are targeting blockchain companies with malicious crypto-stealing apps

TechCrunch · by Carly Page · August 23, 2023

16. N Korea’s new 661 ship makes a nuclear-tipped point

Excerpts:

Newdick notes that the Amnok class’s diversification of its nuclear arsenal makes it more flexible and harder to target. Placing the Hwasal-2 aboard the Amnok-class corvette may be the latest in North Korea’s increasingly diverse sea-based nuclear delivery systems, which include submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM) and nuclear torpedoes.

In April 2022, Asia Times reported that North Korea showcased a new submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) that is larger than the Pukguksung-5 and has enhanced features like multiple independent re-entry vehicles (MIRVs) and longer-range combustion components.

The missile can hit the US mainland and is expected to be launched from North Korea’s new submarines now being built at Sinpo shipyard.

Asia Times reported in March 2023 that North Korea tested a new nuclear-armed underwater drone and nuclear-capable subsonic cruise missiles. The Haeil, a torpedo-shaped drone, was tested off the country’s eastern coast from 21-23 March for 60 hours before detonating.

It is reportedly designed to infiltrate enemy waters and then detonate, creating a radioactive tsunami to destroy enemy ports and ships. However, analysts view the Haeil skeptically, as North Korea is known to exaggerate its military capabilities for deterrent effect.

N Korea’s new 661 ship makes a nuclear-tipped point

Amnok-class corvette can be armed with nuclear-tipped cruise missiles, increasing the diversity and survivability of its nuclear arsenal

asiatimes.com · by Gabriel Honrada · August 24, 2023

North Korea has revealed a new type of cruise missile-armed corvette, which, while still outclassed by its South Korean peers, nonetheless has enormous implications for the survivability of its nuclear arsenal.

This month, Naval News reported that North Korea revealed the new corvette, known as Patrol Ship No 661 of the Amnok-class, during a demonstration for national leader Kim Jong Un. The report describes the corvette as weighing 2,000 tons with modern sensors and weapons, marking a significant leap for North Korea’s modest navy.

It also says that the ship is armed with an old 100-millimeter gun, four fixed quintuple rocket launchers for anti-submarine rockets and eight launchers for Hwasal-2 long-range land attack/surface-to-surface cruise missiles, which is considered capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

Naval News mentions that the corvette’s mast accommodates a primary radar identical to the Chinese Type 362 (MR36A) 2D X-band air and surface search and target indication radar, two navigation radars, and a fire control radar (FCR) similar to the old Russian/Soviet MR-104 to control the AK-630-based CIWS.

It also notes that the ship has two optical naval artillery fire control systems similar to the Russian SP-520 (SP-520 CS), one looking forward and one looking aft, with decoy launchers indicating the existence of a dedicated radar electronic support measures system (R-ESM) and more likely a radio direction finder (RDF).

Given the ship’s specifications, Naval News notes that the Amnok-class corvette is not noteworthy as a surface combatant due to its outdated and relatively poor sensor and weapon fit, similar to most of North Korea’s surface fleet.

The 661 patrol boat launching a cruise missile reputedly capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Photo KCNA

Kim Min-Seok notes in a 2020 assessment for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace that, in a naval battle scenario, North Korean small naval vessels would presumably strike from afar with Styx missiles and flee rather than engage in close combat.

Kim also says North Korean vessels generally would be at a disadvantage compared to their South Korean peers since the latter’s ships are equipped with relatively powerful radar that can detect small enemy vessels quickly.

The Amnok-class may be an exception, with its Hwasal-2 cruise missiles posing the most significant threat. Although little is known about the Hwasal-2, as with most North Korean missiles, Missile Defense Advocacy noted that North Korea successfully launched four Hwasal-2 long-range cruise missiles (LRCM) in February 2023.

The report says the missiles were launched from Kim Chaek City, North Hamgyong Province, and traveled 2,000 kilometers in elliptical and numeral eight-shaped flight orbits for 170 minutes before hitting the preset target on the East Sea of Korea.

Missile Defense Advocacy says LRCMs have a strategic advantage over missile defense systems that target missiles at specific altitudes. It notes that LRCMs can be launched from the exact distances as medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBM), fly at lower altitudes to avoid missile defense systems, and can be manually steered. Those capabilities, the source says, put the strategic targets of South Korea and Japan at risk.

In a 2021 article in the peer-reviewed International Journal of Korean Unification Studies, Chong-Koo Lee notes that the North Korean military has focused on developing new rocket launch systems and other tactical weapons to support its national defense strategy for modern warfare and offset the impact of its comparatively smaller military.

Lee notes that the North Korean military has undergone significant changes since the beginning of the Kim Jong Un regime in late 2011. That included the transformation of nuclear weapons from a political tool to a military weapons system focused on enhancing the credibility of its nuclear deterrent.

He notes that North Korea has also moved away from the traditional principle of maintaining a large military, opting to reduce unnecessary manpower while selectively modernizing its weapons systems. Lee says North Korea’s conventional weapons weakness means it will increasingly depend on its nuclear capabilities, posing an ever-greater risk to South Korea and by association the US.

Moreover, in February 2023, the Japanese Ministry of Defense (MOD) assessed that North Korea is developing tactical nuclear weapons aimed at improving its hit rate on targets within a 15,000-kilometer range and enhancing its preemptive and retaliatory nuclear strike capabilities.

The Japanese MOD further notes that, since May 2019, North Korea has launched new short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM) with irregular trajectories and has plans to rapidly improve its technology and operational capabilities.

A missile is fired from a multiple launch rocket system in this image released by North Korea on March 22, 2020. Photo: KCNA

North Korea also presented a five-year plan for developing defense science and weapon systems at the Korean Workers Party (KWP) Congress in January 2021. These developments, notes the Japanese MOD, present a grave and imminent threat to Japan’s national security.

Thomas Newdick notes in an article for The Warzone this month that given North Korea’s naval inferiority versus South Korea and the US, the decision to arm the Amnok class with the Hwasal-2 LRCM is likely part of a push to develop new and more advanced delivery systems and ways to distribute their nuclear capabilities to make them harder to defeat.

Newdick notes that the Amnok class’s diversification of its nuclear arsenal makes it more flexible and harder to target. Placing the Hwasal-2 aboard the Amnok-class corvette may be the latest in North Korea’s increasingly diverse sea-based nuclear delivery systems, which include submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM) and nuclear torpedoes.

In April 2022, Asia Times reported that North Korea showcased a new submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) that is larger than the Pukguksung-5 and has enhanced features like multiple independent re-entry vehicles (MIRVs) and longer-range combustion components.

The missile can hit the US mainland and is expected to be launched from North Korea’s new submarines now being built at Sinpo shipyard.

Asia Times reported in March 2023 that North Korea tested a new nuclear-armed underwater drone and nuclear-capable subsonic cruise missiles. The Haeil, a torpedo-shaped drone, was tested off the country’s eastern coast from 21-23 March for 60 hours before detonating.

It is reportedly designed to infiltrate enemy waters and then detonate, creating a radioactive tsunami to destroy enemy ports and ships. However, analysts view the Haeil skeptically, as North Korea is known to exaggerate its military capabilities for deterrent effect.

asiatimes.com · by Gabriel Honrada · August 24, 2023

17. Don't count on Camp David

The "Debbie Downer" analysis from DOnald Kirk. He does give credit and makes some slightly optimistic observations but he is not optimistic that Camp David can be sustained. It is easy to make that assessment based on the historical issues between the ROK and Japan.

Hotline? Silly? I do not think he understands what it takes to have a three way conversation that requires interpretation among all three leaders on short notice that will be discussing possible existential threats to one or more of the countries. That kind of business is not conducted solely in English on a cell phone. Silly?

Don't count on Camp David

The Korea Times · August 24, 2023

By Donald Kirk

President Biden should be credited with a terrific public relations success. In less than one day, he got the leaders of South Korea and Japan to appear in full accord on mutual defense against all the bad guys in the region, mostly North Korea but also China.

The word "historic" came up innumerable times in all that Biden, South Korea's President Yoon Suk Yeol and Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said and did in just a few hours in the fresh air of Camp David, nestled in low-lying mountains north of Washington.

If the three made real history, however, it was mostly because they got together, inked a couple of documents and shook hands.

Maybe the image of the leaders of South Korea and Japan looking so friendly was significant, but a reading of what they actually signed shows the vacuity of the tryst. In a mix of fawning double-talk and self-congratulations, they actually agreed on nothing substantive.

The biggest laugh may be the fuss they made over some kind of hotline over which they could talk right away about anything that was bothering them. Come on. What's a "hotline"? These days it's nothing for anyone with a phone to call anyone just about anywhere on earth.

Would this hotline rest on the desks of the American, Korean and Japanese leaders? Might it be found in the offices of the defense chiefs or the U.S. secretary of state and the foreign ministers of Korea and Japan? Is a clerk already standing by ― or more likely sleeping by ― the phone ready to pick it up at the first ring and hand it to another clerk who will hand it to an assistant who will give it to a chief of staff who will give it to the leader?

Just as silly as talk of a "hotline" is the assurance that the American, Korean and Japanese leaders will confer at any sign of danger. At the first few words of alarm, will two of the three ride to the rescue of their beleaguered fellow leader as befitting the meaning of trilateralism, an understanding that's not quite an alliance?

This assurance is about as meaningless as the hotline nonsense. In the event of a war, the conditions at the time, and the nature of the leadership of each of the three countries will determine their willingness to rush to defend one another. If Donald Trump is elected the next American president, God forbid, we can be sure of nothing.

Trump, we hate to recall, destroyed the deal that had committed Iran not to go nuclear, and he also jettisoned a great economic and trading arrangement that would have bound nations on both sides of the Pacific in common cause against China's commercial inroads. Then, for good measure, he talked about pulling U.S. forces from both Korea and Japan.

Trump or a Trump clone would not be the only menace to instant cooperation among the trilateral leaders. We can be none too sure what kind of person Koreans will elect next. The 1987 "democracy" constitution bans Yoon from serving more than one term. He has less than four years to go in his five-year term.

South Korean presidents since 1987 have swung from right to left to conservative and back again. Who can be sure the next Korean president will want to stick to the terms of this "historic" agreement that Mr. Biden believes will endure for the ages?

And what about Japan? Granted, the country is pretty certain to remain in the clutches of the same Liberal Democratic Party that's ruled the roost for most of Japan's post-war history, but can we be confident the fundamentally conservative, nationalist Japanese regime will want to go on appreciating Korean sensitivities?

If Yoon has appeared conciliatory to the Japanese, he is still besieged by a range of issues. Controversy surrounds the deal he made, in a bow to Japan, for Korea, not Japan, to pay Koreans enslaved to Japanese companies during the war. Then there's the never-ending question of compensation for the few remaining "comfort women" and their heirs. And will Japanese and Koreans ever agree on textbook revisions of colonial and imperial history, among a slew of hot topics?

For that matter, can anyone imagine the Japanese telling the Koreans, those huge rocks that you call Dokdo and we say is Takeshima, in waters you call the East Sea and we say is the Sea of Japan, is yours? Korea may cling to Dokdo forever, but the Japanese aren't going to relinquish their demand.

Contrary to Chinese claims that Biden, Yoon and Kishida conspired to set up a "mini-NATO," there's no solid guarantee of anything. The U.S., Korea and Japan are not treaty-bound to defend one another, to defend Taiwan, or to join NATO nations in the defense of Ukraine.

What counts is that these three, Biden, Yoon and Kishida, reviewed carefully crafted documents and then exchanged pleasantries. That's better than nothing but still no firm assurance of security for the region.

Donald Kirk (www.donaldkirk.com) has been covering war and peace in Asia for decades.

The Korea Times · August 24, 2023

18. US soldier in North Korea has ‘so many reasons’ to come home, mom says

US soldier in North Korea has ‘so many reasons’ to come home, mom says

armytimes.com · by Eric Tucker, The Associated Press · August 23, 2023

A U.S. Army private who mysteriously sprinted across the border into North Korea last month has “so many reasons to come home,” his mother said Wednesday as she cast doubt on a recent statement that suggested her son, Travis King, might be seeking refuge there or in a third country.

Claudine Gates spoke to The Associated Press one week after North Korea released the statement through its state media in which it confirmed for the first time that it had detained the soldier and attributed comments to him criticizing the United States.

“I just can’t see him ever wanting to just stay in Korea when he has family in America. He has so many reasons to come home,” Gates, from Racine, Wisconsin, said.

King, 23, had served in South Korea and sprinted into North Korea while on a civilian tour of a border village on July 18. U.S. officials have said they are working to get him home.

The official Korean Central News Agency said King, who is Black, had said he decided to enter North Korea because he “harbored ill feelings against inhuman mistreatment and racial discrimination within the U.S. Army.” The report also said that King had said he “was disillusioned at the unequal American society” and had expressed his willingness to seek refuge in North Korea or a third country.

US soldier bolted after ‘mistreatment’ in the Army, North Korea says

A U.S. Defense Department official said the U.S. had no way to verify North Korea’s claims about Pvt. Travis King.

U.S. officials last week said they were unable to verify the comments attributed to him, while White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters to “consider the source.” KCNA is the official voice of leader Kim Jong Un’s government and its content reflects North Korea’s official line that the United States is an evil adversary.

Gates, in the interview with AP, said she had never heard her son express the sentiments attributed to him.

“My son, he was proud to be American. He’s not even a racist type of person. That’s why I can’t see him saying that,” she said. But she added that “I was kind of told that he said a little something like that to his uncles” and that “their approach with him was a little different than me. I’m mom.”

Gates said she remains perplexed by her son’s actions. Birthdays are major milestones in the family, she said, and she couldn’t imagine her son willfully missing an opportunity to speak with her on July 26, her birthday.

She noted that in the months before his dash across the border to North Korea, he had become significantly less communicative than in his early days in the Army. Family members have previously said that he may have felt overwhelmed as he faced legal troubles and his possible looming discharge from the military.

King was supposed to be returned to the U.S. to face military discipline after serving nearly two months in a South Korea prison on assault charges. But instead of boarding a flight for Texas, as planned, King slipped away and quietly joined a civilian tour group headed for the Demilitarized Zone, which divides South and North Korea.

No matter the issue, Gates said, talking directly to her son, “I’m not mad at you, Travis. I just want you to come home. He has a whole life ahead of him. He’s still a young man. I just want my baby home.”

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

Access NSS HERE

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