|
Greetings,
The Telluride real estate market in January of this year has returned to the pre-pandemic market of January 2020 and more like years 2018 and 2019 with one exception. Prices have not retreated that much. Prices in the last quarter of 2022 and January of this year were down about 10% on the average. We still have buyers for the high-end $5 million to $10+ million range; however, 75% of the 32 sales transactions in January were below $5 million. Click here for January’s market report.
The affluent are more concerned about the volatility of the stock market than they are about interest rates. Some are playing it safe for now and not making big ticket purchases. We see no signs of seller distressed sales and, in my opinion, probably won’t. If a seller needs to sell, there still seems to be enough demand to make that sale happen quickly. It’s too soon to read anything more into what the 2023 sales season will look like. Nevertheless, by the end of the first quarter we should be able to read the market ‘tea leaves’ much better.
In the section farther down below named “Telluride Sales Reports”, you will find our updated annual reports. You will see a report for the number of transactions that used a mortgage in 2022 and at what price range. You will see where buyers are from ranked by the Top Ten Cities & States. We also have a link for the annual sales in the Telluride region for every year including from 2004 through 2022. Lastly, ten years ago in 2012, there were over 1,480 properties for sale in San Miguel County at the end of that year. On December 31, 2022, there were only 222 properties for sale in San Miguel County. That is the lowest amount of inventory since I’ve been a practicing real estate broker in my 39-year career.
Ridgway Real Estate Market Update: If you bought property in our region in the last ten years you know how inventory has changed; however, you may not know how much the booming Telluride market has affected other regional markets. For example, as I write this newsletter there are only three homes for sale in Ridgway under one million. Ten years ago there weren’t any homes in Ridgway for sale at one million or more. Wow!
National Real Estate Market Perspective: Home sales in the U.S. have fallen for ten straight months. This is the longest streak of declining sales in more than two decades. The best buying opportunities in the U.S. are mostly places you may not be familiar with like Fort Wayne, Indiana; Topeka, Kansas; Johnson City, Tennessee...in other words not the most populous states nor second-home markets. People who bought a home in the last five to ten years have good equity but may not want to give up the mortgage rate they have now for a mortgage that is likely to be double that rate. When trying to guess what interest rates will do, think of this axiom: When interest rates go up, they take the elevator. When they go down, they take the stairs. We are not at the top floor yet.
Current homeowners are less likely to be sellers for a couple of years. For the first time since 1974 homes being built to rent exceed homes being built to sell. Single family homes being built for sale are down 40% from just two years ago. In addition, national weather disasters in Florida and California have caused major insurance companies to flee those states and well some other coastal and western states.
This month’s Visual Capitalist: In this visualization, the Visual Capitalist forecasts 2023 inflation by country. READ MORE: https://advisor.visualcapitalist.com/2023-inflation-forecasts-by-country/
Ten Fun Facts Mostly About Real Estate:
- More than 18 million Americans were behind on their credit card payments at the end of 2022.
- More than 40 million lawsuits are filed every year in the United States.
- Canadian home sales were down 37% in January as compared to a year earlier.
- More than 12 million tons of office furniture is dumped annually in the U.S., less than 1% of it is recycled or reused.
- State governments are entering 2023 with $137 billion in reserves more than any other year going back to 1988.
- Sales for previously owned homes in the U.S. slid 34% in December 2022 as compared to one year ago for the same month.
- Net profit margin of companies in the S&P 500 is down 11.3% for the sixth consecutive quarter.
- About 40 years ago, the median American family could enjoy a middle-class lifestyle on one earner’s paycheck. Today, it takes two.
- January marked the 25th straight month of solid job growth with the unemployment rate going down to 3.4 percent.
- In the fourth quarter of 2022, a record of 48,806 new business entities were created in the U.S. up 37.2% from the fourth quarter of 2021. Somebody is optimistic!
Question of the Month: Can a real estate broker assist a buyer about where the better schools are?
Answer: No. What is a better school is a personal decision and could easily be a violation of the Fair Housing Act of 1968. Buyer’s need to do their own research and decide what schools best fit the needs of their families.
Quoted in the Press: We are most grateful for having our market information quoted in the Wall Street Journal, the Denver Post, the Colorado Sun newspaper, the Telluride Daily Planet, The Aspen Times newspaper, and numerous other local newspapers all across Colorado. Thank you!
As always, thank you for taking time to read the Tellugram. If you have any questions as a seller, buyer or just curious reader, we’ll do our best to give you a straightforward answer. Contact us at George@TheHarveyTeam.net or on George’s cell phone number 970-729-0111.
Quote: "Don’t confuse activity with productivity" – B.W. Lusher, Jr.
Best to you,
George Harvey, Jr.
| 
