Weekly News From Los Alamos County
April 14, 2022
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Inside this newsletter you will find...
The Epidemiology Corner - Incidence Update, CDC Travel Updates, Tracking the Pandemic, Updated Booster Guidance, Survey & Results, COVID-19 data and more.
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Incidence Update...
"CDC estimates the BA.2 variant accounted for roughly 86% of cases
during the week ending April 9..."
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COVID-19 incidence in Los Alamos County is generally following that seen in many areas of the US, where increasing prevalence of the now dominant Omicron BA.2 variant has been accompanied by a modest increase in case counts over the past several weeks. In Los Alamos, 7-day average reported cases peaked around 57 cases per day in mid-January during the Omicron BA.1 surge and quickly declined thereafter. An average 17 cases per day were reported by NMDOH for the week ending February 1, which then further declined to <1 case per day on average during the last two weeks in March.
Reported case counts increased by about two-fold during the first two weeks of April to an average of about 2 cases per day. CDC estimates the BA.2 variant accounted for roughly 86% of cases during the week ending April 9, which represents a roughly two-fold increase from the 43% prevalence estimated during the week ending March 19. Prevalence data on Omicron BA.2 are not currently available for New Mexico, but it’s reasonable to assume that BA.2 is now predominating across the state based on U.S. national data.
Current research suggests the BA.2 variant may be 30%-50% more transmissible than the already highly transmissible BA.1 variant, but that disease severity is likely not increased. Public health officials are not expecting another major surge with BA.2 in the U.S. given relatively high population immunity from vaccination and/or recent infection, but close case monitoring is occurring given the uncertainties going forward.
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Recent Age-Specific Incidence Trends in Los Alamos County
Epidemiologists analyze age-specific trends to gain better understanding and insight on disease occurrence within populations. Age-specific incidence rates are often computed as they provide for a direct comparison of risk between different age groups. For example, at the peak of the recent Omicron BA.1 surge in the County, infection risks (i.e., incidence rates) were highest in youth 0-19 years, intermediate in adults, and lowest in the elderly. A somewhat different risk pattern has been observed more recently, where overall incidence rates increased nearly three-fold from 56.7 to 164.8 per 100,000 between the two consecutive 14-day time periods March 15-March 28 and March 29- April 11. The highest risks during this post-surge case increase were observed in adults, especially 20-29 year olds, while the elderly and youth similarly experienced notably lower risks. Various factors may underlie the observed trends, but given the small size of the County population, any one particular exposure event leading to multiple cases could have significant impact on present and future incidence trends.
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NOTE: The COVID-19 incidence data reviewed here are based on PCR-confirmed testing results compiled by NMDOH and may not necessarily reflect positive at-home antigen tests. As such, case counts may be underestimated, but by how much cannot currently be determined. That said, at-home testing likely cannot account for the recent post-surge increase in NMDOH reported cases, and precautionary measures and behaviors should be considered as the very highly transmissible BA.2 variant circulates in the community. For more information on COVID-19 prevention measures see HERE.
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CDC Mask Order Remains in Effect and CDC Realigns Travel Health Notice System
Yesterday, the CDC announced two COVID-19 travel-related updates based on close-monitoring of the COVID-19 landscape in the United States and internationally.
The CDC continues to monitor the spread of the Omicron variant, especially the BA.2 sub-variant that now makes up more than 85% of U.S. cases. Since early April, there have been increases in the 7-day moving average of cases in the U.S. The CDC Mask Order remains in effect while the CDC assesses the potential impact of the rise of cases on severe disease, including hospitalizations and deaths, and healthcare system capacity. TSA will extend the security directive and emergency amendment for 15 days, through May 3, 2022.
[In Los Alamos County, this means masks will continue to be required on the Atomic City Transit buses.]
Secondly, the CDC will update its Travel Health Notice system for international destinations. To help the public understand when the highest level of concern is most urgent, this new system will reserve Level 4 travel health notices for special circumstances, such as rapidly escalating case trajectory or extremely high case counts, emergence of a new variant of concern, or healthcare infrastructure collapse. Levels 3, 2, and 1 will continue to be primarily determined by 28-day incidence or case counts. The new level system will be effective April 18, 2022.
The CDC uses Travel Health Notices to alert travelers and other audiences to health threats around the world and advise on how to protect themselves before, during, and after travel. With this new configuration, travelers will have a more actionable alert for when they should not travel to a certain destination (Level 4), regardless of vaccination status, until we have a clearer understanding of the COVID-19 situation at that destination.
The CDC will continue to monitor COVID-19 levels, in our communities, nationally, and abroad to provide the most up-to-date guidance to keep travelers safe and healthy.
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Many Virus Cases Go Uncounted. Are There Better Ways to Track the Pandemic?
An increasing reliance on at-home testing and the closings of mass testing sites are making official case counts less reliable, scientists say.
When the highly transmissible Omicron variant of the coronavirus arrived in the United States last fall, it pushed new case numbers to previously unseen peaks.
Even then, the record wave of recorded infections was a significant undercount of reality.
In New York City, for example, officials logged more than 538,000 new cases between January and mid-March, representing roughly 6 percent of the city’s population. But a recent survey of New York adults suggests that there could have been more than 1.3 million additional cases that were either never detected or never reported — and that 27 percent of the city’s adults may have been infected during those months.
The official tally of coronavirus infections in the United States has always been an underestimate. But as Americans increasingly turn to at-home tests, states shutter mass testing sites and institutions cut back on surveillance testing, case counts are becoming an increasingly unreliable measure of the virus’s true toll, scientists say.
“It seems like the blind spots are getting worse with time,” said Denis Nash, an epidemiologist at the CUNY Graduate School of Public Health & Health Policy who led the New York City analysis, which is preliminary and has not yet been published. That could leave officials increasingly in the dark about the spread of the highly contagious new subvariant of Omicron known as BA.2, he said, adding, “We are going to be more likely to be surprised.”
On Wednesday, New York officials announced that two new Omicron subvariants, both descended from BA.2, have been circulating in the state for weeks and are spreading even faster than the original version of BA.2. The official case count can still pick up major trends, and it has begun to tick up again as BA.2 spreads. But undercounts are likely to be a bigger problem in the weeks ahead, experts said, and mass testing sites and widespread surveillance testing may never return.
The trouble with testing
Tracking the virus has been a challenge since the earliest days of the pandemic, when testing was severely constrained. Even when testing improved, many people did not have the time or resources to seek it out — or had asymptomatic infections that never made themselves known.
By the time Omicron hit, a new challenge was presenting itself: At-home tests had finally become more widely available, and many Americans relied on them to get through the winter holidays. Many of those results were never reported.
General Covid fatigue, as well as the protection that vaccination provides against severe symptoms, may also prompt fewer people to seek testing, experts said. And citing a lack of funds, the federal government recently announced that it would stop reimbursing health care providers for the cost of testing uninsured patients, prompting some providers to stop offering those tests for free.
Monitoring case trends remains important, experts said. “If we see an increase in cases, it’s an indicator that something is changing — and quite possibly that something is changing because of a larger shock to the system, like a new variant,” said Alyssa Bilinski, a public health policy expert at the Brown University School of Public Health.
But more modest increases in transmission may not be reflected in the case tally, which means that it could take officials longer to detect new surges, experts said. The problem could be exacerbated by the fact that some jurisdictions have begun updating their case data less frequently.
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Disease burden
The spread of Omicron, which easily infects even vaccinated people and generally causes milder disease than the earlier Delta variant, has prompted some officials to put more emphasis on hospitalization rates.
“If our goal is to track serious illness from the virus, I think that’s a good way to do it,” said Jason Salemi, an epidemiologist at the University of South Florida. But hospitalization rates are lagging indicators and may not capture the true toll of the virus, which can cause serious disruptions and long Covid without sending people to the hospital, Dr. Salemi said.
Indeed, different metrics can create very different portraits of risk. In February, the CDC began using local hospitalization rates and measures of hospital capacity, in addition to case counts, to calculate its new “Covid-19 community levels,” which are designed to help people decide whether to wear masks or take other precautions. More than 95 percent of U.S. counties [as seen in the chart above] currently have low community Covid-19 levels, according to this measure.
Hospitalization data may be reported differently from one place to another. Because Omicron is so transmissible, some localities are trying to distinguish between patients who were hospitalized specifically for Covid-19 and those who picked up the virus incidentally.
Passive surveillance
Another solution is to use approaches, such as wastewater surveillance, that don’t rely on testing or health care access at all. People with coronavirus infections shed the virus in their stool; monitoring the levels of the virus in wastewater provides an indicator of how widespread it is in a community.
The CDC recently added wastewater data from hundreds of sampling sites to its Covid-19 dashboard, but coverage is highly uneven, with some states reporting no current data at all. If wastewater surveillance is going to fill in the testing gaps, it needs to be expanded, and the data needs to be released in near real time, scientists said.
[see previous COVID-19 Community Newsletters HERE to read more about wastewater surveillance]
To read the full article, click HERE.
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Have you used at home COVID-19 tests, and did you report any positive results?
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Yes - I reported my positive result
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Yes - I did NOT report my positive result
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Yes - The test was negative
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No - I have not used an at home test
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Los Alamos Vaccine & Booster Information
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CDC Updates Booster Recommendations
Here's what you need to know...
COVID-19 vaccines available in the United States are still effective at protecting people from getting seriously ill, being hospitalized, and even dying—especially people who are boosted. As with vaccines for other diseases, you are protected best when you stay up to date. CDC recommends that everyone ages 5 years and older get their primary series of COVID-19 vaccine, and everyone ages 12 years and older also receive a booster.
Studies show after getting vaccinated against COVID-19, protection against the virus and the ability to prevent infection with variants may decrease over time and due to changes in variants. Staying up to date with your vaccine continues to be the best defense. You are up to date with your COVID-19 vaccines when you have followed the current recommendations listed HERE. The recommendations will be different depending on your age, your health status, what vaccine you first received, and when you first got vaccinated.
Frequently Asked Questions
Do I need a second booster?
Adults ages 50+ can choose to receive a second booster at least 4 months after their first booster. Click below on the "Visit Our Website" link for Los Alamos County Vaccine/Booster Resources to learn where boosters are available, and how to determine if you are eligible.
Does the definition of "up-to-date" include a booster?
It depends. Everyone ages 12 years and older is considered up to date until the time they are eligible for their first booster — which is 5 months after the second dose for Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines, or two months after the J&J/Janssen vaccine. After this time period, they need to get 1 booster to be considered up to date. Getting a second booster is not necessary to be considered up to date at this time.
Am I still considered fully vaccinated if I don't get a booster?
Yes, the definition of fully vaccinated has not changed and does not include a booster. Everyone is still considered fully vaccinated two weeks after their second dose in a two-dose series, such as the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines, or two weeks after the single-dose J&J/Janssen vaccine. Fully vaccinated, however, is not the same as having the best protection. People are best protected when they stay up to date with COVID-19 vaccinations, which includes getting one booster when eligible.
To learn more, click HERE.
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Los Alamos County Vaccine/Booster Resources
Visit the County COVID Page for information regarding vaccinations/boosters, click below:
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CDC COVID Data Tracker - April 14, 2022
To get today's break down of positive case data, demographics information, vaccine status and more for Los Alamos County or other counties across the United States, click HERE
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Los Alamos County
Emergency Management
COVID-19 Status Report for April 5, 2022
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Johns Hopkins
COVID-19 Status Report Dashboard for
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The charts available with this TOOL layout the key metrics for understanding the reach and severity of COVID-19 in a given area.
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NMDOH Epidemiology Reports - Daily and Weekly Data
As part of the COVID-19 pandemic response, NMDOH collects and analyzes statewide data for COVID-19 positive cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. The reports reflect these critical data and are updated weekly - click HERE
See the daily report for New Mexico on the chart below.
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We are listening to you!
Your feedback is helping to shape future newsletters, inform decisions regarding services, and make Los Alamos County healthier and safer. Make sure to participate each week to be heard!
Remember, we appreciate your questions too. We always try to respond in a timely manner, and include those Q&As in future newsletters.
Take a look at these results from last week:
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Have a question? Email us. |
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Testing Resources for Los Alamos County |
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Los Alamos County Testing Resources
Visit the County COVID Page for information regarding testing, click below:
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What else would you like to see in this newsletter?
Click below to email us your feedback and questions!
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