A new PONARS Eurasia Executive Committee statement condemns scholars who publicly support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In two new PONARS Eurasia Policy Memos, Kimberly Marten argues Putin is unlikely to go nuclear or attack NATO territory except by miscalculation, and Daniel Horn, Gavin Slade, and Alexei Trochev find Russians are more likely than most countries’ populations to support prison for criminals.
 
In a new PONARS Eurasia Commentary, Volodymyr Dubovyk calls attention to the fact that in addition to refugees fleeing Ukraine, millions more are “internally displaced,” fleeing their homes to other parts of Ukraine. In another, he argues pressure should be maintained for jets and proven equipment such as mobile antitank launchers. Henry Hale says military aid is important despite the risks since it gives Ukrainians a fighting chance.
 
Can this work? Pavel Baev writes Putin has lost all the wars he has started. For Samuel Charap, a Russian victory would not be pretty since it would come from “making it intolerable for people to resist — to engender surrender by inflicting pain.” One Ukrainian asset is President Volodymyr Zelensky. Olexiy Haran credits his domestic and international popularity to his ability to adjust to the gravity of Ukraine’s plight and find a balance between outrage and anguish.
 
What about sanctions? Konstantin Sonin argues closing McDonald’s and blocking Russian athletes from sporting events will help make clear to regular Russians that the invasion has steep costs. For Susanne Wengle, focusing sanctions on Russia’s oil and gas makes sense given their vast role, compared to lower levels of sales of metals, grains, and weapons. Sanctions may yield some victories for Putin, though, by forcing oligarchs into distressed asset sales and breeding a new crop of oligarchs beholden to Putin, observes Stanislav Markus. Marlene Laruelle cautions pushing sanctions too far into Russophobia may lend more support to Putin. Anti-Russian sentiment in the US isn’t surprising, says Keith Darden: internal ethnic tensions often flare up when the US is engaged in international conflict. How much China will help Russia remains unclear. Elizabeth Wishnick and Andrew Taffer write it remains wary of Russian moves even as it publicly pronounces “no forbidden areas” in their cooperation.
 
Why is Putin doing this? Oleksandr Sushko writes Putin attacked because Ukrainians “won’t be subjugated.” Marlene Laruelle posits Putin genuinely believes he’s reproducing World War II, fighting “Nazism” again. Vladimir Gel'man cautions against attributing Putin’s actions to emotion or his attitudes to Ukraine alone, instead emphasizing the Russian leader’s own brand of reasoning and the nature of his political system. For Gulnaz Sharafutdinova, Putin plays on Soviet identity, which gave Russians a sense they were “living in a country that was in many ways unique and superior to the rest of the world.”

Consequences in Russia. Nikolai Petrov paints a picture of an increasingly isolated Putin. Sam Greene reminds us we know little about Putin’s personal life; instead we see only a highly curated public persona. Maria Snegovaya says she had long refrained from calling Russia totalitarian, but the invasion and its authorities’ actions now earn it the label. Many are now fleeing Russia. Sonin puts the number at some 200,000 over ten days, mostly from the professional and tech sectors.
 
Focusing on the longue durée, a new book by Ayşe Zarakol, Before the West: The Rise and Fall of Eastern World Orders, provides a connected history of Asian/Eurasian international relations between the 13th and 17th centuries.

Event

Wednesday, March 16, 12 pm (EDT) - Thursday, March 17, 12 pm (EDT): Ukrainathon. A 24-hour marathon of expert lectures on topics related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.