Quotes of the Day:
There is a story of a Bolshevik revolutionary who was standing on a soap box speaking to a small crowd in Times Square. After describing the glories of Socialism and Communism, he said: “Come the revolution and everyone will eat peaches and cream.”
A little old man at the back of the crowd yelled out: “I don’t like peaches and cream.”
The Bolshevik thought about that for a moment and then replied: “Come the revolution, Comrade, you will like peaches and cream.”
"Those who cast the votes decide nothing. Those who count the votes decide everything."
— Joseph Stalin
“Cold Wars cannot be conducted by hotheads. Nor can ideological conflicts be won as crusades or concluded by unconditional surrender.”
- Walter Lippmann: The Russian-American War 1949
Political extremism involves two prime ingredients: an accessible simple diagnosis of the world's ills and a conviction that there are identifiable villains back of it all.
— John W. Gardner, No Easy Victories
1. Ukraine War Update - March 19, 2022 | SOF News
2. RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, MARCH 18 (PUTIN'S WAR)
3. UKRAINE CONFLICT UPDATE 17
4. Readout of President Joseph R. Biden Jr. Call with President Xi Jinping of the People’s Republic of China
5. Biden warns Xi against supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine.
6. What to expect from Biden’s first call with China’s Xi on Ukraine
7. Biden, Xi Talk as U.S. Threatens Actions if China Backs Russia in Ukraine War
8. Opinion: Zelenskyy's comedy background is ever-present in his approach to nations
9. Inside the transfer of foreign military equipment to Ukrainian soldiers
10. Four U.S. service members killed when aircraft crashes in Norway during NATO exercise
11. Putin Is Telegraphing His Weakness
12. On Ukraine, what a change in just a few weeks
13. 4 reasons why social media can give a skewed account of the war in Ukraine
14. HASC leaders want next-gen Stinger replacement, as stockpile dwindles due to Ukraine
15. Ultraviolent Warfare: Where Conflicts Often Go.
16. China’s Great-Power Play
17. Legion of the damned: Inside Ukraine’s army of misfits, veterans, and war tourists in the fight against Russia
18. Here’s an Idea: Pay Russian Pilots for Defecting
19. Ukraine will not halt US shift to Indo-Pacific
20. The shadow warriors deployed to kill Zelensky
21. Why We Should Read Hannah Arendt Now
1. Ukraine War Update - March 19, 2022 | SOF News
Ukraine War Update - March 19, 2022 | SOF News
Curated news, analysis, and commentary about the Russian invasion of Ukraine, tactical situation on the ground, Ukrainian defense, and NATO. Additional topics include refugees, internally displaced personnel, humanitarian efforts, cyber, and information operations.
Image. 1928 Ethnic Map of Ukraine. American Geographical Society Library, University of Wisconsin.
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Russian Campaign Update. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said (Mar 17) that President Putin “may be growing more desperate” as Ukraine mounts fierce resistance to the invasion and the Russian offense is stalled. He believes Russia is using its propaganda to develop the narrative of Ukraine planning to use biological or chemical weapons. It is believed that this would lay the groundwork for Russia to employ these weapons but blame Ukraine. The invasion has been costly to the Russians, with an estimated 7,000 soldiers killed. Ukrainian military losses are said to be around 1,300. Russian troop morale has plummeted. The supply problems persist – shortage of food, fuel, and ammunition.
Air and Sea. Russian missiles have struck a number of targets across eastern Ukraine. Kyiv and Kharkiv are experiencing periodic shelling by the Russians. It is estimated (U.S. DoD) that over 1,080 missiles have been fired at Ukraine since the start of the invasion. There are reports that Germany and the Netherlands will provide Patriot anti-air missile defense systems to Slovakia; who will provide their S-300 anti-air defense systems to Ukraine. An amphibious landing force on several ships is still positioned in the Black Sea off the coast of Odessa to land a substantial element of Russian naval infantry. The Russian blockade of Ukrainian shipping continues.
Battle for the Cities. The capital city of Ukraine is experiencing shelling but the Russians do not seem to be making much headway in getting closer to the city center. To the west of Kviv and near Brovary (under Ukrainian control) the Russians are digging trenches and defensive positions. The second largest city of Ukraine, Kharkiv, is located in the northeast of the country and has been under attack for weeks. The Ukrainians have mounted limited counterattacks in the Kyiv, Kharkiv, Donbas, and Mykolayiv areas. An aid convoy reached the besieged city of Sumy near the northeast border area.
Mariupol. Located on the Sea of Azov, the coastal city of Mariupol is under siege by the Russians. This city is situated along the coastal road network that would provide Russia with a land bridge between Russia and the Crimea. About 130 residents have been rescued from a Mariupol theater where up to a thousand sought safety from Russian shelling. Hundreds remained trapped in the rubble and are feared dead. 80% of the city has been destroyed by shelling.
Mykolayiv. Ukrainian forces conducted a major successful counterattack in the vicinity of Mykolayiv. Located on the west bank of the Dnieper River close to the coast of the Black Sea, Mykolayiv is a strategic objective for the Russians that is on the road to Odessa located further west along the coast of the Black Sea. Without significant reinforcements, it is doubtful that the Russians can advance towards Odessa, located on the Black Sea west of Mykolayiv.
Lviv. This western city has been relatively untouched by the war . . . when compared to cities in eastern Ukraine. It has been a haven for thousands of internally displaced people (IDPs). Many Ukrainians are arriving in Lviv and staying 4 to 5 nights before departing for the border. The city receives about 10,000 people daily and there are no available rooms in hostels, hotel, or apartments to rent.
Refugees. As of March 18, over 3,200,000 refugees have left Ukraine according to data provided by the United Nations High Commissioner on Refugees (UNHCR). The United Nations Migration Agency says that 6.5 million Ukrainians are internally displaced. The Ukraine: Humanitarian Impact Situation Report for March 18 has been posted by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. The Congressional Research Service (CRS) has released a report entitled Humanitarian and Refugee Crisis in Ukraine, PDF, 4 pages, 18 March 2022.
General Information
Biden Warns China. On Friday (Mar 18) President Biden threatened China with “consequences” if it aids Russia. In a two hour long phone call with Xi Jinping, the president detailed possible U.S. responses should Beijing provide support and assistance to Russia. It is likely that some of these responses would include sanctions on China.
U.S. Weapons to Ukraine. On Wednesday, March 15, 2022, the White House released a statement listing the weapons provided to Ukraine. Since the start of the Biden administration over a year ago about $2 billion in security assistance has been provided to Ukraine. Some of the direct weapons transfers include 1,400 Stinger anti-aircraft systems, almost 11,000 anti-armor systems, five Mi-17 helicopters, three patrol boats, satellite imagery and analysis capabilities, and other weapons. “Fact Sheet on U.S. Security Assistance for Ukraine”, The White House, March 16, 2022. One weapon to be provided to Ukraine includes small, one-time use drones recently adopted by U.S. Special Operations Forces (SOF). Read about it in “U.S. Adds “Kamiakaze Drones” as More Weapons Flow to Ukraine”, Lobo Institute, March 18, 2022.
Russia’s Shadow Warriors. Wagner Group mercenaries have been battle-hardened in Syria, Libya, Central Africa Republic, and Donbas. They are Putin’s de facto private army loosely associated with Russia’s GRU. They are now, according to some press reports, hunting for the President of Ukraine. “The shadow warriors deployed to kill Zelensky”, Asia Times, March 19, 2022.
Tanks Without Infantry = Failure. There aren’t enough Russian infantry units in Ukraine. Many Russian tanks are in combat without infantry support and traveling down roads with no flank security. This lack of foot soldiers, usually found in motorized rifle regiments, means that Russian maneuver capabilities are limited. A tank’s armor is up front, not on the sides or in the rear. Infantrymen protect a tank’s sides and rear; but in their absence the tanks are vulnerable to ambush by the enemy from anti-armor weapons like the Javelin, NLAW, and others. Tanks in combat are ‘buttoned-up’ with limited visibility. David Axe provides the details: “In Ukraine, Russian Tanks Are Fighting Without the Protection of Infantry”, Forbes, March 15, 2022.
Bread Prices Rise Worldwide. Russia and Ukraine provide 30% of the world’s wheat. The Ukraine War is affecting the food supply worldwide and bread prices are going up. The United Nation’s World Food Program (WFP) says that poorer countries will be most affected by the shortage of wheat.
Russian Astronauts. Apparently three Russian cosmonauts arrived at the International Space Station on Friday (Mar 18) in flight suits made in yellow and blue, seeming close to the colors of the Ukrainian flag. They are on board the ISS for a six-month long stay, joining the crew of two Russians, four Americans, and one German. Where their standard-issue blue uniforms are is unknown at this time. “Russian cosmonauts arrive at ISS in colours of Ukrainian flag”, The Times, March 19, 2022.
Escaping the Russians – and Crowdsourcing. Volunteer groups have formed up to provide a way out of the cities currently being bombed and shelled by the Russians and on the verge of capture. Volunteers in Ukraine and abroad are coordinating rides from eastern Ukraine cities to western Ukraine and beyond into neighboring countries on buses, private vehicles, and in taxis. “Ukraine: How crowdsourcing is rescuing people from the war zone”, BBC News, March 19, 2022.
House votes on Trade with Russia. The U.S. House of Representatives voted to suspend normal trade operations with Russia. In a vote of 424 to 8, the representatives voted to strip Russia of preferential trade status and impose higher tariffs. Eight members of the Republican party voted in opposition to the bill.
Ukrainian Women Standing Strong. Some 32,000 women who belonged to the Ukrainian defense forces before the Russian invasion are now patrolling checkpoints and on the front lines. Many more women have joined the country’s armed forces since the invasion. “Ukrainian women stand strong against Russian invaders”, The Washington Post, March 18, 2022.
Pravda Propaganda – and 3 NG Members KIA. The Russian media outlet reported that three members of the Tennessee National Guard died while fighting in Donbas, Ukraine. The news outlet called them U.S. ‘mercenaries’. They listed the names of three current or former members of the 278th Armored Cavalry Regiment who served during a 2018 training mission in Ukraine. The National Guard says the three individuals are accounted for, not in Ukraine, and are alive. (Military Times, Mar 17, 2022)
How Ukraine Wins. Timothy Garton Ash expects Ukraine to suffer through a Russian campaign of long-distance bombardment and siege. But he describes how Ukraine can win the war. “How Ukraine can win”, The Spectator, March 19, 2022.
The Coming Resistance
Website – “Center for National Resistance”. The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) announced the creation of an official website for the “Center for National Resistance”. The center will support and coordinate those who are fighting for the liberation of Russian occupied territory. It provides guidance on urban warfare and insurgent activities. The website will be run by Ukrainian Special Operations Forces. It is in Ukrainian with an English option.
U.S. Assistance to Insurgency – Vital. Christopher Costa, currently the executive director of the International Spy Museum, is a former career intelligence officer. He argues that the United States needs to start now to help setup the Ukrainian resistance to fight the occupation of the Russians. “The US must help the resistance wage the ‘other war’ in Ukraine”, The Hill Opinion, March 15, 2022.
SOF News welcomes the submission of articles for publication. If it is related to special operations, current conflicts, national security, defense, or the current conflict in Ukraine then we are interested.
Maps and Other Resources
UNCN. The Ukraine NGO Coordination Network is an organization that ties together U.S.-based 501c3 organizations and non-profit humanitarian organizations that are working to evacuate and support those in need affected by the Ukraine crisis. https://uncn.one
Maps of Ukraine
Ukraine Conflict Info. The Ukrainians have launched a new website that will provide information about the war. It is entitled Russia Invaded Ukraine and can be found at https://war.ukraine.ua/.
UNHCR Operational Data Portal – Ukraine Refugee Situation
Ukrainian Think Tanks – Brussels. Consolidated information on how to help Ukraine from abroad and stay up to date on events.
Janes Equipment Profile – Ukraine Conflict. An 81-page PDF provides information on the military equipment of the Russian and Ukrainian armed forces. Covers naval, air, electronic warfare, C4ISR, communications, night vision, radar, and armored fighting vehicles, Ukraine Conflict Equipment Profile, February 28, 2022.
Arms Transfers to Ukraine. Forum on the Arms Trade.
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2. RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, MARCH 18 (PUTIN'S WAR)
RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, MARCH 18 (PUTIN'S WAR)
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 18
Mason Clark, George Barros, and Kateryna Stepanenko
March 18, 5:30pm ET
Ukrainian forces conducted a major successful counterattack around Mykolayiv in the past several days, and Russian forces continued to secure territorial gains only around Mariupol on March 18. Russian forces face growing morale and supply problems, including growing reports of self-mutilation among Russian troops to avoid deployment to Ukraine and shortages of key guided munitions. The Ukrainian General Staff continued to report on March 18 that Russia has failed to achieve its strategic objectives in Ukraine, including destroying the Ukrainian Armed Forces, capturing Kyiv, and establishing control over Ukraine to the east bank of the Dnipro River—the first time the Ukrainian General Staff included this territorial conquest as an explicit Russian objective.[1] The Ukrainian General Staff additionally stated that Ukrainian forces “continue step by step to liberate the temporarily occupied territory of Ukraine in all directions” on March 18, the first Ukrainian mention of conducting counterattacks “in all directions.”[2]
Key Takeaways
- The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russia has “significantly exhausted its human resources” due to battle casualties, cases of self-mutilation to avoid deployment, and psychological factors.
- Ukrainian forces likely conducted a successful counteroffensive against Russian forces around Mykolayiv in the past several days.
- The ability of Ukrainian forces to conduct a successful major counterattack indicates Russian forces attempting to encircle Mykolayiv likely overstretched, and Russian forces are unlikely to have the capability to resume offensive operations toward Odesa in the near term.
- Russian forces did not conduct any offensive operations northwest or northeast of Kyiv on March 18.
- Russian forces continue to make steady progress reducing the Mariupol pocket.
- Ukrainian forces halted a Russian attempt to advance southeast of Kharkiv, through the city of Izyum, in the past 24 hours. Russia is deploying additional reserves to reinforce the Kharkiv axis of advance.
- Russian and proxy forces made minor territorial gains north of the city of Severodonetsk in Luhansk Oblast and will likely assault the city itself in the next 24-48 hours.
- Ukrainian military intelligence created an official website to provide support and guidance to Ukrainian fighters and civilians in Russian-occupied territory.
The Ukrainian General Staff reported Russia has “significantly exhausted its human resources” due to battle casualties, cases of self-mutilation to avoid deployment, and psychological factors.[3] The General Staff stated Russia is having to take “extreme matters in matters of staffing,” including deploying, conscripts, cadets, and mercenaries from Syria.[4] Ukrainian intelligence reported approximately 130 personnel of the 20th Motor Rifle Division (of the 8th Combined Arms Army) refused to deploy to Ukraine and participate in combat operations at an unspecified time.[5] The Ukrainian General Staff additionally reported the Kremlin plans to remove Colonel Vadym Pankov, commander of the 45th Special Brigade due to his ”failure to perform a combat mission at Hostomel airfield”—possibly referring to Russia’s failed airborne landing at Hostomel in the first 72 hours of the war.[6] This is the first confirmed dismissal of a Russian general for their performance in Ukraine. The Ukrainian General Staff stated on March 17 that Russia has already recruited 1,000 personnel from Syria, with the main requirement to have experience in urban combat.[7] The Ukrainian General Staff also reported the Kremlin shifted Russia’s military-industrial complex involved in producing Kalibr and MLRS “Tornado” ammunition to “around-the-clock" production due to the “consumption of almost all missile ammunition” as of March 18.[8]
Russian forces are escalating repressive measures in areas of occupied Ukraine in response to mounting Ukrainian attacks behind Russian lines. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces are attempting to establish a “strict administrative and police regime” in several areas while also attempting to “create a positive image” by distributing food to the civilian population.[9] The General Staff additionally stated Russian forces are actively searching for and detaining “pro-Ukrainian activists, civil servants, members of the [Ukrainian military] and members of their families, as well as other citizens who may organize resistance to the occupation.”[10]
The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) announced the creation of an official website for the “Center for National Resistance” on March 18.[11] The GUR said the center will “support and coordinate all those who want to fight for the liberation of Ukraine from the Russian invaders” and will be run by Ukrainian Special Operations forces. The website includes guidance on urban warfare and other information for Ukrainian fighters and civilians in occupied territory. The head of President Zelensky’s office, Oleksiy Arestovych, additionally called on civilians to destroy railways in the occupied territories to stage a “rail war” on March 17.[12]
Russian forces are engaged in four primary efforts at this time:
- Main effort—Kyiv (comprised of three subordinate supporting efforts);
- Supporting effort 1—Kharkiv;
- Supporting effort 1a—Luhansk Oblast;
- Supporting effort 2—Mariupol and Donetsk Oblast; and
- Supporting effort 3—Kherson and advances westward.
Main effort—Kyiv axis: Russian operations on the Kyiv axis are aimed at encircling the city from the northwest, west, and east.
Subordinate main effort along the west bank of the Dnipro
Russian forces did not conduct any offensive operations northwest of Kyiv on March 18. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces primarily defended previously seized terrain and continued to attempt to consolidate forces to resume offensive operations.[13] The General Staff added that heavy Russian losses, low morale, and a lack of experienced tactical unit commanders will prevent Russian forces from resuming an offensive “in the near future.”[14] The Ukrainian General Staff reported on March 18 that Russia is deploying additional “uncoordinated units” from the Central and Eastern Military Districts to reinforce operations against Kyiv.[15]
Subordinate supporting effort—Chernihiv and Sumy axis
Russian forces again did not conduct offensive operations toward northeastern Kyiv on March 18 and concentrated on reinforcing existing positions.[16] The Ukrainian General Staff reported Russian forces continue to shell the city of Chernihiv and are “intimidating locals to quell civilian resistance” across Chernihiv Oblast—indicating likely ongoing Ukrainian attacks behind Russian lines.[17] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces near Sumy reconnoitered Ukrainian positions and replenished supplies but did not conduct active offensive operations.[18]
Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv:
Ukrainian forces halted a Russian attempt to advance southeast of Kharkiv in the past 24 hours. Russian forces conducted several assaults on the city of Izyum (southeast of Kharkiv) beginning the night of March 17, through ISW assesses Ukrainian forces remain in control of the city center as of publication. The Izyum City Council reported on March 17 that Russian forces crossed the river near the Barvinkivsky Highway but were then halted by Ukrainian forces.[19] They later reported at 1:00 pm local time on March 18 that fighting was ongoing on the outskirts of Izyum and that local Territorial Defense forces were evacuating civilians.[20] The Ukrainian General Staff reported at noon local time on March 18 that Russian assaults on Izyum continued throughout the day and that Russian forces are deploying additional units and supplies.[21] A Senior US Defense Official reportedly claimed that Russian forces took control of Izyum on March 17, though either the statement itself or media reporting was incorrect.[22]
Russian forces did not conduct any direct assaults on Kharkiv itself in the last 24 hours but continued to shell the city.[23] The Ukrainian General Staff said Russia had to deploy accumulated reserves “prematurely” on March 17, likely assessing that Russia is deploying replacements piecemeal rather than reserving them for a coordinated offensive.[24] The Ukrainian General Staff additionally claimed that Ukrainian forces “destroyed” and halted the advance of unspecified elements of the 437th Training Regiment and reportedly a battalion tactical group (BTG) of the 26th Tank Regiment (of the 47th Tank Division, 1st Tank Army) at an unspecified location in Kharkiv Oblast.[25]
Supporting Effort #1a—Luhansk Oblast:
Russian forces captured portions of Rubizhne, northeast of Severodonetsk, on March 17-18 and will likely assault the city itself in the next 24-48 hours. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on March 17 that Russian and proxy forces are preparing to resume offensive operations against Severodonetsk.[26] Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) forces continued to shell Ukrainian positions in the city throughout the day.[27] The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed Russian forces have captured more than 90% of Donetsk Oblast on March 18, but ISW cannot verify this claim.[28]The Ukrainian General Staff stated Russian and proxy forces seized unspecified territory in the area of Rubizhne as of noon local time on March 18.[29] The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed LNR forces are “eliminating” remaining Ukrainian forces south of Rubizhne, and social media users posted footage of LNR forces raising the LNR flag above a city administration building in Rubizhne on March 17.[30]
Supporting Effort #2—Mariupol and Donetsk Oblast:
Russian forces continue to take territory in Mariupol on March 18.[31] Russian forces captured an administrative building on the left (eastern) bank of Mariupol, less than 10km from the city center, on March 18.[32] Chechen Rosgvardia forces were observed operating in the outskirts of the city.[33] Russian forces did not conduct major offensive operations north of the city on March 18.[34]
Supporting Effort #3—Kherson and west:
Ukrainian forces likely conducted a successful counteroffensive against Russian forces around Mykolayiv in the past several days. Ukrainian forces reportedly pushed Russian forces back to a distance of 10km from Mykolayiv by March 18.[35] Russian forces had previously bypassed Mykolayiv to a depth of 90km.[36] The Wall Street Journal published an article on the Ukrainian counteroffensive on March 18, stating Ukrainian forces pushed back Russian forces over the past several days.[37] The WSJ reported that Ukrainian forces began the counteroffensive on March 14, likely retook territory west of Mykolayiv by March 16, and further pushed Russian forces back to the borders of Kherson Oblast March 16-17.[38] Ukrainian Presidential Adviser Alexei Arestovich stated Russian forces retreated “en masse” from Mykolayiv late on March 17.[39] The Ukrainian General Staff reported at noon local time on March 18 that Russian forces did not conduct any offensive operations west of Kherson on March 18.[40] The ability of Ukrainian forces to conduct a successful major counterattack indicates Russian forces attempting to encircle Mykolayiv likely overstretched, and that Russian forces are unlikely to have the capability to resume offensive operations towards Odesa in the near term.
Immediate items to watch
- Russian forces will likely capture Mariupol or force the city to capitulate within the coming weeks.
- The Ukrainian General Staff continued to report that there is a high probability of Russian provocations aimed at involving Belarus in the war in Ukraine, though ISW continues to assess that Belarus is unlikely to open a new line of advance into Ukraine.
- Ukrainian counterattacks and operations by Territorial Defense Forces in northeastern Ukraine threaten Russia’s exposed line of communicating, requiring Russia to redeploy forces away from the offensive toward eastern Kyiv.
- Company and battalion-level attacks northwest of Kyiv likely represent the largest scale of offensive operations Russian forces can currently undertake to complete the encirclement of the city.
[12] https://sprotyv dot mod.gov.ua/2022/03/17/hronologiya-sprotyvu-17-bereznya/.
[35] https://suspilne dot media/218823-akso-vsi-poidut-bude-prostise-nas-zahopiti-ak-mikolaiv-zive-iz-rosijskou-armieu-na-pidstupah/.
[36] https://t dot me/vartovi_kyiv/34726.
[39] https://tsn dot ua/ato/rosiyski-viyska-panichno-tikali-z-pid-mikolayeva-arestovich-2012128.html.
3. UKRAINE CONFLICT UPDATE 17
UKRAINE CONFLICT UPDATE 17
Institute for the Study of War, Russia Team
with the Critical Threats Project, AEI
March 18, 2022
The ISW Russia team is relaunching its Ukraine Conflict Updates as a semi-weekly synthetic product covering key political and rhetorical events related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine. This update covers events from March 15 – March 17.
Key Takeaways March 15-17
- Russian and Ukrainian negotiators have likely agreed that Ukraine will not join NATO but the Kremlin maintains maximalist demands of Ukraine that it is unlikely to drop in the coming weeks.
- Russian media continues to amplify government officials and “experts” who falsely claim that the United States is preparing to wage biological or chemical war on Russia.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin blamed Ukraine for allegedly developing nuclear weapons with foreign assistance and falsely claimed that Ukraine planned to conduct a nuclear attack against Russia.
- The Kremlin continued to claim that Ukraine is the aggressor and that Russia’s invasion is going according to plan and will soon accomplish its objectives.
- The Kremlin downplayed the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy and took additional steps to mitigate and counter their effects.
- Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko stated on March 15 that Belarusian soldiers will not enter Ukraine and accused Ukraine of trying to drag Belarus into the war.
- The Kremlin is kidnapping local leaders to set conditions for controlling and subduing occupied Ukrainian territory.
- NATO defense ministers agreed to deploy additional troops to NATO’s eastern borders but reiterated that the Allies will not create a no-fly zone over or send troops to Ukraine.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin asked China for military and economic support for the war in Ukraine. China has neither confirmed nor denied whether they will provide aid to Russia.
Key Events March 15 – March 17, 5:00 pm EST
Negotiations:
Russian and Ukrainian negotiators have likely agreed that Ukraine will not join NATO but disagree on Ukraine’s neutrality, disarmament, and territorial claims as of March 17. The Financial Times reported on March 15 that Russian and Ukrainian negotiators were considering a 15-point deal stipulating that Ukraine renounce its NATO ambitions and promise not to host foreign military bases or weaponry in exchange for security guarantees from states like the United States, United Kingdom, and Turkey.[1] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged on March 15 that Ukraine will not join NATO, citing NATO state reservations rather than Russian demands.[2] Zelensky and Ukrainian Presidential Advisor Mikhailo Podolyak stated on March 16 that Ukraine needs powerful allies with clearly defined and “legally verified” security guarantees as opposed to protocols resembling the Budapest Memorandum, the 1994 agreement in which Russia, the United States, and other states promised security to Ukraine in exchange for Ukraine giving up its nuclear weapons. Kyiv would likely intend such guarantees to compensate for the lack of formal NATO membership.[3] Kremlin officials have long decried Ukraine’s NATO prospects and falsely claimed Western expansion into Ukraine provoked Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Ukrainian Presidential Office Deputy Head Ihor Zhovkva said on March 15 that certain Russian “territorial demands” are “completely unacceptable,” indicating that Ukraine remains unwilling to recognize the Russian proxy Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics in Donbas and the Russian annexation of Crimea.[4]
The Kremlin continues to make maximalist demands Kyiv is unlikely to agree to, however. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on March 16 that Ukraine should not possess weapons that threaten Russia and NATO states should not supply these weapons to Ukraine, attempting to frame the existence of the Ukrainian military as a threat to Russia.[5] The Russian delegation proposed on March 16 that Ukraine adopt a demilitarization and neutrality model like Austria and Switzerland.[6] Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Head Russian negotiator Vladimir Medkinsky claimed that the Ukrainian delegation proposed this neutrality and demilitarization model on March 16, but head Ukrainian negotiator Mikhailo Podolyak refuted this claim and rejected this model on March 16.[7] Podolyak said that talks should focus on security guarantees, not neutrality models.[8] The Ukrainian Presidential Office announced on March 17 that Zelensky and Putin will meet once the Ukrainian and Russian delegations formalize a preliminary peace agreement.[9]
Ukraine asked Turkey to serve as a guarantor for any Ukrainian-Russia peace deal after Turkish diplomatic visits to Moscow and Kyiv. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu discussed a possible ceasefire and diplomatic talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Moscow, Russia on March 16 and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba in Lviv, Ukraine, on March 17.[10] Cavusoglu stated on March 17 that Kuleba suggested Turkey and Germany as guarantor countries in a proposed “collective security agreement” and added that Russia did not object to the proposal after Cavusoglu’s March 16 visit to Moscow.[11] Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reiterated his offer to host Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Turkey for de-escalation talks during a phone call with Putin on March 17.[12] Erdogan stated on February 28 that Turkey cannot abandon ties with Russia or Ukraine despite Turkey’s military and political support for the latter.[13] Instead, Turkish officials have positioned Turkey as a diplomatic channel between Russia and Ukraine to negotiate possible de-escalation and ceasefire opportunities. The Kremlin is likely additionally taking advantage of Turkey as an avenue to issue demands of Ukraine.
Russian Domestic Opposition and Censorship:
The Kremlin increased censorship measures against Russian and international media on March 14-16 and experienced domestic opposition on March 15. Roskomnadzor blocked access to at least 31 media sites, including Bellingcat and BBC’s main site on March 16.[14] Kremlin Spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated that recent steps were “only the beginning of retaliatory measures” in an information war she claimed the West launched against Russia.[15] The Russian Prosecutor General’s Office also submitted a proposal to recognize Facebook’s parent company, Meta, as an extremist organization March 16.[16]
Kremlin Narratives:
Russian media continues to amplify government officials and “experts” who falsely claim that the United States is preparing to wage biological or chemical war on Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested on March 16 that Ukraine is “strenuously trying to cover up” Russian claims that Pentagon-sponsored biolaboratories are building biological weapon components in Ukraine near Russia’s border.[17] Russian media amplified on March 16 a Russian military expert’s claim that US biolabs in Ukraine violate the Convention on the Non-Creation of Bioweapons and a Russian virologist’s claim that US biolabs in Ukraine threaten the entire world.[18] The Russian Foreign Ministry similarly claimed on March 15 that the alleged Ukrainian biolabs are a danger to Europe and demanded that the international community investigate them within the framework of the Convention on the Prohibition of Biological and Toxin Weapons (BWC).[19] Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova claimed on March 17 that the Kremlin supports strengthening the BWC and threatened to invoke BWC Articles 5 and 6, which require multilateral cooperation in investigating and solving alleged BWC violations.[20]
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned on March 17 that the United States believes Russia may use chemical or biological weapons in Ukraine.[21] US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met with Russian Council Secretary Nikolay Patrushev on March 16 to warn of “consequences and implications” should Russia employ chemical or biological weapons.[22] Russian media called Blinken’s previous March 16 statement about concerns on Russian use of chemical weapons a deflection from Russian allegations of US-backed military biological programs in Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin blamed Ukraine for allegedly developing nuclear weapons with foreign assistance and falsely claimed that Ukraine planned to conduct a nuclear attack against Russia. Putin called the “Nazi Kyiv regime’s” alleged intent to develop nuclear weapons a “real threat” to Russia on March 16 and claimed that Ukraine had intended to develop its own nuclear weapons to target Russia prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.[23]
The Kremlin continued to claim that Ukraine is the aggressor on March 15-17 while claiming that Russia’s invasion is going according to plan and will soon accomplish its objectives. Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev claimed on March 15 that the Kremlin obtained evidence that Ukraine planned to invade Donbas and Crimea.[24] Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova claimed on March 16 that Russia waited until the last possible moment to begin its military operation.[25] Zakharova claimed on March 16 that the West never planned to have Ukraine follow the Minsk II Accords or reintegrate Donbas.[26] Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed on March 16 that residents of Donbas suffered through eight years of genocide and stated that a Ukrainian offensive in Donbas was only a matter of time.[27] Russian Federation Council Vice Speaker Kosachev claimed on March 17 that the operation in Ukraine prevented a Third World War.[28]
Putin claimed on March 16 that the Ukraine invasion is “developing successfully and according to plan.”[29] Russian Duma International Affairs Committee Deputy Dmitry Novikov predicted on March 16 that the first phase of Russia’s operation—the demilitarization of Ukraine—would be completed by May, when he expects that the Ukrainian Armed Forces would have depleted their resources. Novikov said that the next phase would include the “de-Nazification” of Ukraine and “the formation of a new future for the country.”[30] Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev stated on March 17 that Russia has enough power “to put enemies in their place” and that Russia “will continue to fight for the world order” that suits Russia.[31]
The Kremlin continued to employ adversarial rhetoric against Western responses to the invasion of Ukraine on March 16 and 17, framing the West as siding with “Nazis.” Russian President Vladimir Putin falsely compared Western actions against Russia with “anti-Semitic inclinations” and pogroms in Nazi Germany during a speech on March 16.[32] Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov condemned US President Joe Biden’s March 16 statement calling Putin a war criminal as ”unacceptable and unforgivable.”[33] Russian Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova claimed that Ukrainian “Nazis” use civilians in Mariupol as human shields.[34] Zakharova falsely accused NATO of doctoring videos depicting Russian shelling of civilian infrastructure and falsely stated that “anyone who claims that Russian shells hit civilian targets in Ukraine is lying.”
The Kremlin amplified Chinese statements about Russian military action in Ukraine on March 17 in a likely attempt to frame China as aligned with Russia against the West. Russian media underlined Chinese Ambassador to the United States Qin Gang’s March 15 op-ed in the Washington Post, which claimed that China did not know about Russian plans to invade Ukraine.[35] Russian media additionally amplified Chinese Commerce Ministry Spokesperson Gao Feng’s statement that China stands against unilateral sanctions that do not take international legal norms into account.”[36] Russian state-run media outlet TASS highlighted a Chinese Global Times editorial that blamed NATO for provoking a crisis in Ukraine and argued Western states’ responses to the conflict demonstrate their “pronounced madness.”[37]
Russian Reactions to Sanctions:
The Kremlin underplayed the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy and took additional steps to mitigate and counter their effects. Kremlin and Russian Foreign Ministry officials rejected claims that sanctions have crippled the Russian economy, claimed Russia had necessary funds to avoid default, and warned that the United States and European Union will suffer from reciprocal damage in several statements between March 15-18.[38] Russian President Vladimir Putin also claimed on March 16 that the US and EU defaulted on their financial obligations to Russia and that Russia’s reserves “can simply be stolen” after numerous Western states froze Russian foreign assets.[39] The US, UK, and EU member states announced new sanctions against Russian individuals, assets, and exports on March 15.[40]
Russian Prime Minister Sergey Mishustin announced on March 17 that the Kremlin will invest 40 billion rubles to promote employment in Russia.[41] State-owned Russian Railways announced on March 16 that some Russian shippers are refusing to supply cargo to “unfriendly” countries and reoriented export supplies to Asia instead.[42] The Russian Foreign Ministry also banned US President Joe Biden, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and 12 other US officials from entering Russia in response to rising sanctions on March 15.[43] The Russian Foreign Ministry also blacklisted 313 Canadian nationals, including Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, on March 15.[44]
Russian media praised countries that have not imposed sanctions on Russia, including China, Japan, and Serbia, on March 16. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov praised China for not bending to the “unprecedented pressure” of the United States on March 16.[45] Russian media amplified Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s March 16 statement that Japan may experience economic blows from Russian counter-sanctions.[46] Russian media circulated Serbian Parliament Speaker Ivica Dacic’s statement that Serbia’s national interests “suggest that Serbia will not impose sanctions on Russia.”[47] Russian media reported that Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned Dutch Foreign Minister Wopke Hoekstroy of the consequences of sanctioning Russia in a phone conversation on March 16.[48]
Belarus:
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko stated that Belarusian soldiers will not enter Ukraine but continued to falsely claim that Ukraine seeks to drag Belarus into the war on March 15. Lukashenko claimed on March 15 that Ukrainian forces launched a Tochka-U missile toward Belarusian territory and that Russian and Belarusian forces intercepted the missile over Pripyat, Ukraine, on March 13.[49] Lukashenko framed this missile as evidence of baiting Belarus to participate in the war in Ukraine.[50] Russia may have launched the attack as a false flag to force Lukashenko to join the war against Ukraine; Russian jets likely bombed several Belarusian towns on March 11 to that end.[51] Lukashenko claimed on March 15 that Belarusian forces will not enter the war because Belarus would not be able to make a “unique” contribution to Russian operations.[52]
Russian Occupation:
The Kremlin is setting conditions to control and subdue occupied Ukrainian territory. The Russian military has kidnapped several Ukrainian mayors, protest leaders, and political dissidents since March 11.[53] Russian forces allegedly kidnapped Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov on March 11, Dneprorudny Mayor Yevhen Matveyev on March 12, and Skadvosk Mayor Alexander Yakovlev and his Deputy Yuri Paliukh on March 16.[54] Russian forces also allegedly kidnapped anti-Russian protest coordinator Olga Gaisumova on March 12; a Ukrainian journalist in Kakhova, Ukraine, on March 13; and the husband of Melitopol Deputy of the Regional Council Irina Slavova, Sergey Slavov, on March 16.[55] US Ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Michael Carpenter previously warned on March 3 that Russia will very likely order kidnappings of Ukrainians “to force the population to cooperate through intimidation.”[56] Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov denied all accusations of Russian kidnappings.[57]
Drivers of Russian Threat Perceptions:
NATO defense ministers agreed to deploy additional troops to NATO’s eastern borders but reiterated that they will not create a no-fly zone over or send troops to Ukraine.[58] The Kremlin likely intends to test NATO redlines and air defenses while demonstrating to neighboring states that NATO may have a higher threshold for intervention than eastern European member states would prefer.
- NATO Defense Ministers held an extraordinary meeting in Brussels, Belgium on March 16. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin met with his Italian, French, German, Turkish, and British counterparts on the sidelines of the NATO Defense Ministers meeting to discuss military assistance to Ukraine and strengthening the Eastern European borders of the alliance.[59] NATO defense ministers directed member-state military commanders to plan for additional troop deployments in Eastern Europe that may become permanent in June 2022.
- Recent drone incidents in Poland, Croatia, and Romania have magnified NATO concerns that the war could inadvertently spill over into bordering countries.[60] The Ukrainian Air Force Command claimed on March 15 that a Russian unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) entered NATO airspace in Poland and then returned to Ukrainian airspace, where Ukrainian air defenses shot it down.[61] An unidentified drone carrying a large bomb crashed and exploded near the Croatian capital on March 13 and another unidentified drone entered Romanian airspace on March 14.[62]
- NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz insisted that NATO will not intervene in the war with military force or create a no-fly zone to avoid escalations that could result in a NATO-Russia conflict. Russian media amplified the German cabinet’s March 16 statements that opposed a proposal to deploy a NATO military contingent in Ukraine.[63]
- The White House continues to oppose a no-fly zone over Ukraine, reiterating that a no-fly zone could result in an uncontrolled escalation of the conflict.[64]
- Polish Deputy Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski called for an international peacekeeping mission in Ukraine following his March 15 meeting with leaders from Czechia, Poland, Slovenia, and Ukraine in Kyiv, Ukraine.[65]
NATO and EU countries continued to provide lethal and non-lethal military aid to Ukraine and bordering NATO countries.[66]
- US President Joe Biden announced on March 16 that the United States will provide an additional $800 million in security assistance to Ukraine in response to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s same-day appeal to the US Congress for additional aid to Ukraine and sanctions on Russia on March 16.[67] This package includes direct transfers of equipment from the US Department of Defense to the Ukrainian military, including 100 Switchblade drones, 800 Stinger anti-aircraft systems, 2,000 Javelin missiles, 1,000 light anti-armor weapons, 6,000 AT-4 anti-armor systems, small arms, ammunition, and other equipment.[68] A senior US official stated on March 16 that the United States had already sent Soviet-era SA-8, SA-10, SA-12, and SA-14 mobile air defense systems to Ukraine.[69]
- Slovakia has preliminarily agreed to send Soviet-era S-300 air defense systems to Ukraine on March 16 but has requested that NATO backfill the air defense systems to avoid a security gap.[70]
- The UK Defense Ministry announced on March 17 it will deploy its Sky Sabre air defense system to Poland along with 100 troops to operate it to defend Polish airspace.[71]
- German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock announced on March 16 that Berlin is ending direct weapons assistance to Ukraine but is considering funding Ukrainian weapons purchases.[72]
Foreign Involvement:
Russian President Vladimir Putin asked China for military and economic support for the war in Ukraine. China has neither confirmed nor denied whether they will provide aid to Russia.[73]
White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki stated on March 14 that China will face “significant consequences” should they provide military or other assistance to Russia that violates international sanctions against Russia.[74]
- NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg called on China to condemn Russia’s actions in Ukraine on March 15, appealing to their membership in the UN Security Council.[75]
- Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stated on March 16 that increased sanctions on Russia will impede the restoration of the global economy and that they cause unjustified harm to people in all countries.[76]
Japan, Turkey, and India plan to maintain energy cooperation with Russia, but a new US Senate resolution could threaten Russia’s energy economic lifeline.[77]
- Japan refused to stop nuclear energy cooperation with Russia on March 17, likely due to their significant reliance on fuel imports and unwillingness to impose sanctions that could harm Japan’s economy.[78] However, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida stated on March 16 that Japan will revoke Russia’s most favored nation trade status in response to the Ukrainian invasion.[79]
- India is in talks with Moscow about increasing oil imports from Russia to neutralize spiraling prices and preserve their bilateral relationship.[80]
- Turkish Deputy Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said Turkey will continue to import oil from Russia.[81] Turkey relies on Russia for 45% of its natural gas, 17% of oil, and 40% of gasoline, according to Bayraktar.
- The US Senate is preparing to introduce a resolution to sanction all Russian banks—including Gazprombank—that allow Russia to receive payments for its oil and gas exports.[82] If passed, the resolution would likely disrupt other countries’ vital energy imports from Russia. Initial US sanctions on Russian banks excluded Gazprombank to allow gas imports to US allies and partners.
[3] https://apostrophe dot ua/news/262780; https://espreso dot tv/zelenskiy-mi-povinni-borotis-i-vesti-peregovori-pro-spravedliviy-i-chesniy-mir-dlya-ukraini-pro-garantii-bezpeki-yaki-pratsyuvatimut
[7] https://www.svoboda dot org/a/lavrov-zayavil-o-progresse-po-voprosu-o-neytraljnom-statuse-ukrainy/31755898.html
[16] https://iz dot ru/1305940/2022-03-16/zaiavlenie-gp-o-priznanii-meta-ekstremistskoi-organizatciei-postupilo-v-sud
[18] https://iz dot ru/1305822/2022-03-16/voennyi-ekspert-zaiavil-o-narushenii-ssha-konventcii-o-nesozdanii-biooruzhiia; https://iz dot ru/1305838/2022-03-16/virusolog-nazval-opasnym-dlia-mira-sushchestvovanie-biolaboratorii-na-ukraine
[19] https://iz dot ru/1305203/2022-03-15/mid-rf-otmetil-opasnost-biolaboratorii-na-ukraine-dlia-evropy
https://iz dot ru/1305329/2022-03-15/lavrov-zaiavil-o-neobkhodimosti-rassmotret-vopros-o-biolaboratoriiakh-na-ukraine
https://russian dot rt.com/ussr/news/976175-biolaboratorii-ukraina-ssha?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
[20] https://russian dot rt.com/world/news/977310-biologicheskoe-oruzhie-konvenciya?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS; https://russian.rt dot com/world/news/977310-biologicheskoe-oruzhie-konvenciya?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
[27] https://iz dot ru/1305999/2022-03-16/putin-ukazal-na-bezalternativnost-spetcoperatcii-po-zashchite-donbassa; https://russian.rt dot com/ussr/news/976870-putin-massirovannoe-nastuplenie-vsu?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS; https://tass dot com/world/1423131
[29] https://iz dot ru/1306090/2022-03-16/prezident-rossii-putin-zaiavil-ob-uspeshnom-khode-spetcialnoi-voennoi-operatcii-na-ukraine
[31] https://iz dot ru/1306460/2022-03-17/medvedev-zaiavil-o-vozmozhnostiakh-rossii-postavit-nedrugov-na-mesto
[32] https://riafan dot ru/22028654-Putin_sravnil_bor_bu_s_Rossiei_za_rubezhom_s_antisemitskimi_pogromami_v_fashistskoi_Germanii
[33] https://iz dot ru/1306355/2022-03-17/peskov-nazval-slova-baidena-v-adres-putina-nedopustimymi
[36] https://iz dot ru/1306432/2022-03-17/kitai-vystupil-protiv-antirossiiskikh-sanktcii
[38] https://tass dot ru/politika/14076035; https://tass dot ru/ekonomika/14072951; https://iz dot ru/1305271/2022-03-15/peskov-oproverg-slova-psaki-o-sokrushitelnom-udare-po-ekonomike-rf; https://tvzvezda dot ru/news/20223151248-zXEhd.html; https://lenta dot ru/news/2022/03/15/sankcii/; https://iz dot ru/1305955/2022-03-16/siluanov-zaiavil-o-vzaimnom-ushcherbe-ot-zapadnykh-sanktcii-protiv-rossii; https://iz dot ru/1305853/2022-03-16/v-mid-zaiavili-o-posledstviiakh-dlia-evropy-iz-za-nanesennogo-ushcherba-otnosheniiam-s-rf; https://russian dot rt.com/world/news/977278-kreml-minfin-gosdolg-deflot?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
[39] https://iz dot ru/1306060/2022-03-16/putin-zaiavil-ob-obiavlennom-defolte-ssha-i-es-pered-rossiei
[41] https://iz dot ru/1306536/2022-03-17/pravitelstvo-rossii-napravit-40-mlrd-rublei-na-podderzhku-zaniatosti; https://iz and ru/1306542/2022-03-17/mishustin-zaiavil-o-rasshirenii-vozmozhnostei-sluzhb-zaniatosti-v-rossii
[42] https://iz dot ru/1306015/2022-03-16/rzhd-soobshchili-ob-otkaze-riada-gruzootpravitelei-postavliat-gruzy-v-nedruzhestvennye-strany
[45] https://iz dot ru/1305831/2022-03-16/v-kremle-prokommentirovali-davlenie-ssha-na-kitai
[46] https://iz dot ru/1305939/2022-03-16/premer-iaponii-zaiavil-o-trudnostiakh-iz-za-kontrsanktcii-rossii
[47] https://iz dot ru/1305939/2022-03-16/premer-iaponii-zaiavil-o-trudnostiakh-iz-za-kontrsanktcii-rossii
[48] https://iz dot ru/1305831/2022-03-16/v-kremle-prokommentirovali-davlenie-ssha-na-kitai
[49] https://reform dot by/303171-lukashenko-utverzhdaet-chto-po-belarusi-popytalis-udarit-tochkoj-u; https://tass dot ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/14075397
[52] https://nv dot ua/world/geopolitics/lukashenko-otvetil-budet-li-belarus-uchastvovat-v-voyne-protiv-ukrainy-poslednie-novosti-50225219.html
[54] https://vesti dot ua/herson/rossijskie-voennye-pohitili-mera-skadovska-i-ego-zamestitelya-kostyuchenko
[76] https://iz dot ru/1305727/2022-03-16/v-mid-knr-ukazali-na-negativnoe-vliianie-antirossiiskikh-sanktcii
[78] https://iz dot ru/1306354/2022-03-17/iaponiia-ne-planiruet-prekrashchat-sotrudnichestvo-s-rf-v-atomnoi-energetike
4. Readout of President Joseph R. Biden Jr. Call with President Xi Jinping of the People’s Republic of China
Readout of President Joseph R. Biden Jr. Call with President Xi Jinping of the People’s Republic of China
MARCH 18, 2022
•
President Joseph R. Biden, Jr. spoke today with President Xi Jinping of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The conversation focused on Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. President Biden outlined the views of the United States and our Allies and partners on this crisis. President Biden detailed our efforts to prevent and then respond to the invasion, including by imposing costs on Russia. He described the implications and consequences if China provides material support to Russia as it conducts brutal attacks against Ukrainian cities and civilians. The President underscored his support for a diplomatic resolution to the crisis. The two leaders also agreed on the importance of maintaining open lines of communication, to manage the competition between our two countries. The President reiterated that U.S. policy on Taiwan has not changed, and emphasized that the United States continues to oppose any unilateral changes to the status quo. The two leaders tasked their teams to follow up on today’s conversation in the critical period ahead.
5. Biden warns Xi against supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Attacking The enemy's strategy by releasing the findings (that is what is of supreme importance or so said Sun Tzu)
Excerpts:
U.S. officials have warned that Mr. Putin is seeking economic help, military hardware and field rations from China. American officials have leaked those findings, perhaps to both embarrass Mr. Putin and put China’s leadership on the spot.
At a press briefing, Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary, said that after the call, the United States still had concerns about how China would react. “We will continue to watch until we see what actions they take or don’t,” she said.
Asked about the U.S. supplying arms and financial aid to Ukraine while telling China not to supply any to Russia, Ms. Psaki said, “I would remind everybody that Russia is invading Ukraine, not the other way around.” She also said that the material going to Ukraine is purely defensive, adding, “None of the weapons we have sent can be used to launch an invasion of a country like Russia.”
U.S. and European officials see China’s role as a critical one, and decisions by Mr. Xi could push the war in different directions — perhaps toward a cease-fire or more robust diplomatic talks by various parties to negotiate an end to Russia’s campaign, or toward renewed momentum for the Russian forces in their deadly offensive.
Mr. Xi, who has built a bond with Mr. Putin over years and has declined to condemn Russia’s actions in Ukraine, gave no indication that he would involve China in efforts for a diplomatic solution, according to an official Chinese readout of the call.
Biden warns Xi against supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine.
March 18, 2022
March 18, 2022
March 18, 2022, 4:39 p.m. ET
Residents in northwestern Kyiv sifted through debris and looked for salvageable belongings on Friday.Credit...Ivor Prickett for The New York Times
WASHINGTON — President Biden warned President Xi Jinping of China on Friday of repercussions if Beijing decides to give Russia financial or military aid to support its war in Ukraine, White House officials said, but they did not specify what those consequences would be.
Mr. Biden laid out for Mr. Xi the punishments that the United States and its allies had imposed on Russia as a result of President Vladimir V. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine last month, said a senior U.S. official, who briefed reporters on the condition of anonymity about the nearly two-hour video call between the two leaders.
That punishment has mainly taken the form of sanctions that have devastated Russia’s economy, the 11th largest in the world. The implication was that the United States could impose similar sanctions on China, the world’s second-largest economy.
The call came as Russia is seeking to capture Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, and second-largest city, Kharkiv, and expand control of the southern coast. But Russian forces are reeling from high casualties — 7,000 or more soldiers killed, according to a conservative American intelligence estimate — and the discovery of critical gaps in its military prowess.
U.S. officials have warned that Mr. Putin is seeking economic help, military hardware and field rations from China. American officials have leaked those findings, perhaps to both embarrass Mr. Putin and put China’s leadership on the spot.
At a press briefing, Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary, said that after the call, the United States still had concerns about how China would react. “We will continue to watch until we see what actions they take or don’t,” she said.
Asked about the U.S. supplying arms and financial aid to Ukraine while telling China not to supply any to Russia, Ms. Psaki said, “I would remind everybody that Russia is invading Ukraine, not the other way around.” She also said that the material going to Ukraine is purely defensive, adding, “None of the weapons we have sent can be used to launch an invasion of a country like Russia.”
U.S. and European officials see China’s role as a critical one, and decisions by Mr. Xi could push the war in different directions — perhaps toward a cease-fire or more robust diplomatic talks by various parties to negotiate an end to Russia’s campaign, or toward renewed momentum for the Russian forces in their deadly offensive.
Mr. Xi, who has built a bond with Mr. Putin over years and has declined to condemn Russia’s actions in Ukraine, gave no indication that he would involve China in efforts for a diplomatic solution, according to an official Chinese readout of the call.
That summary emphasized the friction between China and the United States over Taiwan before addressing Ukraine. It said Mr. Xi pointed out that “the situation in Ukraine has developed to this point, which China does not want to see,” and reiterated his statements that China would provide humanitarian aid and that Russia and Ukraine should hold peace talks.
The United States and NATO should also talk with Russia to resolve the crisis, Mr. Xi said, and he used a phrase he and other Chinese officials have employed when blaming troubles on the United States: “Let he who tied the bell on the tiger take it off.”
6. What to expect from Biden’s first call with China’s Xi on Ukraine
Excerpts:
China has struggled to balance between maintaining its “no limits” strategic alliance with Russia — as both sides described the partnership in February — and salvaging its relationship with Western countries. Beijing’s silence amid overwhelming international condemnation of the invasion has prompted critics to call China an accomplice to the Kremlin’s actions.
In recent weeks, Chinese officials have shifted their tone, distancing themselves slightly from Moscow. While state media and statements do not describe Russia’s actions as an “invasion,” Xi called the conflict a “war” for the first time while speaking to his German and French counterparts last week, and China’s ambassador to the Untied States wrote in an op-ed in The Washington Post that “[h]ad China known about the imminent crisis, we would have tried our best to prevent it.”
However, for the most part China’s position appears unchanged. In official comments and Chinese state-media editorials published before the call, Beijing signaled no willingness to change its stance of avowed neutrality — of neither endorsing or condoning Russia’s actions, while supporting Moscow’s claims of security concerns and blaming the United States and NATO for the crisis.
What to expect from Biden’s first call with China’s Xi on Ukraine
In a call between the leaders, Biden warned of ‘consequences’ if China provides material support to Moscow as it pursues a devastating invasion of its neighbor
Yesterday at 7:28 a.m. EDT|Updated yesterday at 3:17 p.m. EDT
President Biden and China’s Xi Jinping are set to speak Friday as their countries navigate thorny political and economic differences over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The leaders of the world’s two largest economies last met virtually in November and “have a lot to discuss,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters Thursday.
“This is an opportunity for President Biden to assess where President Xi stands,” Psaki said. There has been an “absence of denunciation by China of what Russia is doing,” which she added “speaks volumes” around the world.
The Biden administration has made clear to Beijing its “deep concerns” about any alignment with Russia, she said, adding that reports that China may supply Russia with military equipment were of “a high concern.”
Now into its fourth week, China’s effort to displease neither Russia nor the West is looking increasingly untenable, some experts say, as pressure mounts on Beijing to use its influence over Russian President Vladimir Putin and China’s economic ties with Russia to force a cease-fire. Biden is expected to press Xi to persuade Putin to end the attack.
Earlier this week, national security adviser Jake Sullivan had an “intense” and “candid” seven-hour meeting with his Chinese counterpart in Rome about the potential consequences of any assistance that Beijing might provide Moscow. Secretary of State Antony Blinken also issued an explicit warning to China on Thursday that there would be consequences for providing military assistance to Moscow.
“We believe China in particular has a responsibility to use its influence with President Putin and to defend the international rules and principles that it professes to support,” Blinken said. “Instead, it appears that China is moving in the opposite direction by refusing to condemn this aggression while seeking to portray itself as a neutral arbiter.”
China has struggled to balance between maintaining its “no limits” strategic alliance with Russia — as both sides described the partnership in February — and salvaging its relationship with Western countries. Beijing’s silence amid overwhelming international condemnation of the invasion has prompted critics to call China an accomplice to the Kremlin’s actions.
In recent weeks, Chinese officials have shifted their tone, distancing themselves slightly from Moscow. While state media and statements do not describe Russia’s actions as an “invasion,” Xi called the conflict a “war” for the first time while speaking to his German and French counterparts last week, and China’s ambassador to the Untied States wrote in an op-ed in The Washington Post that “[h]ad China known about the imminent crisis, we would have tried our best to prevent it.”
However, for the most part China’s position appears unchanged. In official comments and Chinese state-media editorials published before the call, Beijing signaled no willingness to change its stance of avowed neutrality — of neither endorsing or condoning Russia’s actions, while supporting Moscow’s claims of security concerns and blaming the United States and NATO for the crisis.
“Both sides want to make sure the other side has no doubts about its own firm position,” said Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University, who said he did not believe the call would have any “major positive impact” on U.S.-China relations.
“Both Beijing and Washington will understand each others’ positions. All these realizations will further harden confrontation between the two countries,” he added.
Referring to China’s behavior so far since the conflict began, Psaki pointed to the country’s abstention in United Nations Security Council votes on the war and its echoing of unsubstantiated claims of American biochemical labs, in Ukraine. “It’s a question of where you want to be as the history books are written,” she said, prompting Chinese officials to swiftly hit back.
“The claim that China is on the wrong side of history is overbearing. It is the US that is on the wrong side of history,” Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying tweeted.
Hua said that if the United States had “refrained from repeatedly expanding NATO and pledged that NATO would not admit Ukraine, and had not fanned the flames by supplying weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, the situation would have been very different.” She added many countries were drawing their own “independent conclusions” on the conflict.
Ahead of the meeting, the state-run Global Times quoting an anonymous Chinese government official said Beijing had agreed to the meeting, initiated by the White House, out of consideration for bilateral relations and the desire to “urge the United States to take the right stance.” Psaki said the call had been “mutually agreed” upon.
A pledge from Xi that China would not break the international sanctions imposed on Russia, would be a victory for Biden. But observers say that although Chinese companies have largely complied with the sanctions, China is unlikely to offer any such promise.
“The call is unlikely to produce any substantive changes to China’s position,” said Amanda Hsiao, senior China analyst at the International Crisis Group. “It will not pressure Moscow into a settlement or openly support sanctions because Beijing likely calculates that its relationship with Washington will not improve even if it does so.”
Other topics aside from Ukraine will also be on the table, said Psaki. Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said on Friday that the Chinese aircraft carrier Shandong had sailed through the Taiwan strait, a provocative move just before the call.
Beijing claims democratic Taiwan, an ally of the United States that has been on heightened alert since the Ukraine crisis, is part of its territory and has vowed to take it over by force if necessary.
Reis Thebault contributed to this report.
7. Biden, Xi Talk as U.S. Threatens Actions if China Backs Russia in Ukraine War
Biden, Xi Talk as U.S. Threatens Actions if China Backs Russia in Ukraine War
U.S. president tried to suggest the stakes for China during a nearly two-hour-long videoconference
By Alex Leary
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and Lingling Wei
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Updated March 18, 2022 5:45 pm ET
WSJ · by Alex Leary and Lingling Wei
WASHINGTON—President Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping conferred Friday amid growing hostility over what the U.S. says is Beijing’s failure to join other leading nations in denouncing Russia’s military assault on Ukraine.
“The claim that China is on the wrong side of history is overbearing. It is the U.S. that is on the wrong side of history,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying tweeted Friday morning, accusing the U.S. of provoking Russia.
The U.S. has said Beijing bears a responsibility to use its influence with Mr. Putin to seek an end to the war. Mr. Xi, however, is likely to present China as a neutral party to the conflict, and one that can facilitate negotiations to bring it to an end, according to foreign-policy experts close to the Chinese government.
After having been caught off guard during the early days of Russia’s attack, the foreign-policy experts said, Beijing now has settled on a clearer strategy: It won’t oppose Russia, and it will support Ukraine—what is described in China as “benevolent neutrality.”
The stance reflects that Mr. Xi is sticking to his strategic focus on making common cause with Russia to undermine the U.S.-led West, while trying to still present China as a responsible world leader.
“The Biden-Xi call could be a tipping point for U.S.-China relations,” said Neil Thomas, an analyst at Eurasia Group, a political-risk consulting firm. If the two sides find common ground on Ukraine, he said, then it could stabilize tensions.
“But if Biden gets nothing from Xi, or if there are diplomatic fireworks, then the call could herald a new low in modern U.S.-China relations,” said Mr. Thomas.
Beijing has so far declined to criticize Russia or even to term its actions in Ukraine an invasion, expressing sympathy with the security concerns Moscow has cited as among the reasons for the military assault. China has also appeared to coordinate with Russia on what the U.S. says is disinformation, with Chinese Foreign Ministry officials amplifying Russian claims that the U.S. is supporting biological-weapons research in Ukraine. Further, China has criticized the severe economic sanctions brought by the U.S. and its allies against Russia.
China has denied U.S. assertions that Russia has sought its help, either through providing military equipment or economic assistance. The White House has declined to elaborate on those allegations or what punishment it would level should China assist Moscow.
Mr. Xi is expected to seek assurances over Taiwan, which Beijing says it eventually intends to absorb, by force if necessary. The Biden administration has continued arms sales to Taiwan and dispatched a delegation there as Russia launched the invasion of Ukraine.
As part of the sparring around Taiwan, a Chinese aircraft carrier and a U.S. Navy destroyer sailed through the Strait of Taiwan in a pair of separate, sensitive maneuvers on Thursday and Friday.
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WSJ · by Alex Leary and Lingling Wei
8. Opinion: Zelenskyy's comedy background is ever-present in his approach to nations
The lesson isn't that we need Jewish comedians for president. The lesson is that the most important trait or skill for a president is to be a great communicator. It is just that comedians do communicate so well, can connect with the target audience, and know what messages to give to the target audience, rehearse and practice so that all their communications appear spontaneous and natural and thus inspire people.
Opinion: Zelenskyy's comedy background is ever-present in his approach to nations
NPR · by Scott Simon · March 19, 2022
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky gestures as he speaks during a press conference in Kyiv on March 3, 2022. SERGEI SUPINSKY/AFP via Getty Images
A comic has become the face of courage.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, unshaven, rumple tee-shirted, speaking from the street, or walking to visit wounded Ukrainian soldiers in a hospital, where he gave them medals and got them to smile.
Gary Shteyngart, the Russian-born American novelist, told us, "Zelenskyy has shown the world that Jewish comedians are not to be trifled with. Beneath all the laughs they have a backbone of steel."
Volodymyr Zelenskyy has a law degree but made his name as a comedian. He produced and starred in the series Servant Of the People, in which he played a slightly nebbish high school history teacher whose classroom oration against corruption goes viral and propels him to be elected president of Ukraine.
Four years after the series debuted, the real-life Volodymyr Zelenskyy was elected president. And while political opponents have questioned if he fights corruption quite as fiercely as the role he played, there has been worldwide admiration for him as a resolute leader of a nation under attack.
He has stayed in a city under siege, refusing a U.S. offer of evacuation with, "I need ammunition, not a ride."
He cited Shakespeare to the British parliament, telling them, "The question for us now is to be or not to be..." and then invoked Winston Churchill when he told Britons, "We will continue fighting for our land, whatever the cost. We will fight in the forests, in the fields, on the shores, in the streets."
Anne Libera, director of Comedy Studies at Columbia College Chicago, told us, "Comedy manipulates truth, pain and psychological distance with the intent to make others laugh ... Zelenskyy has a comedian's ability to connect."
President Zelenskyy told a joint session of the U. S. Congress this week, "In your history, you have pages that would allow you to understand Ukrainians, understand us now... Remember Pearl Harbor, the terrible morning of December 7, 1941, when your sky was black from the planes attacking you."
And yet he didn't try to sound as eloquent as Churchill, or as sonorous as FDR.
"He's an experienced writer of his own material who knows what works for him," Bob Falls, the Tony-Award winning director told us, "with the talent to project both anger and vulnerability. That is probably rehearsed (like all plays), and yet appears completely spontaneous and alive 'in the moment.'"
It is a comic actor's skill that Volodymyr Zelenskyy now brings to the tragedy around him as he fights to keep his county alive.
NPR · by Scott Simon · March 19, 2022
9. Inside the transfer of foreign military equipment to Ukrainian soldiers
I suppose this is the Ukrainian version of the US Red Ball Express in Europe in WWII.
Inside the transfer of foreign military equipment to Ukrainian soldiers
Long-distance convoys deliver armor-plated pickups, repainted SUVs, body armor and other vital gear at clandestine handoffs
Yesterday at 12:27 p.m. EDT
ON THE POLAND-UKRAINE BORDER — There were no passport officers on the dirt road, no customs lane, no signs marking this isolated patch of farmland for what it has become: a clandestine gateway for military supplies entering Ukraine.
“No pictures, no pictures,” shouted a Polish border guard as a convoy of 17 trucks hissed to a halt on a biting morning earlier this week.
Not far from here was a Ukrainian military base where at least 35 people had been killed a few days earlier by a Russian missile barrage, and no one wanted to call attention to this ad hoc border crossing. Washington Post journalists were directed to turn off the geolocation function of their cameras.
The convoy was carrying 45 vehicles — retrofitted Jeeps, ambulances, an armored bank truck and an army field kitchen — as well as 24 tons of diesel. It had traveled overnight from Lithuania as part of a swelling supply network racing to catch up with the return of war to Europe. More than a dozen volunteer drivers, including one whose relief work was normally limited to helping motorists stranded on the highway, had driven hood-to-taillight almost around-the-clock to rendezvous with Ukrainian fighters.
While governments negotiate over fighter jets and high-end weapon systems, soldiers on the ground are struggling to fill more basic needs. With Ukraine’s own factories shut down by shelling, its forces rely increasingly on volunteer, pop-up supply chains like this one for vital gear, including body armor, medical supplies and the pickup trucks and SUVs they covet as fighting vehicles.
A second convoy was scheduled to arrive later in the day, packed with generators, radios, surveillance drones, night-vision gear and, most coveted of all, almost 7,000 bulletproof vests and helmets. For the soldiers, it is a lifeline.
“That is what we need the most,” said Lt. Andrey Bystriyk, one of the many Ukrainian fighters who had traveled across his war-ravaged country to meet the convoys. His blue eyes teared up when he talked about the aid pouring in from neighboring countries.
“From the army, we get the gun and the ammunition and the uniform,” he said. “But under the uniform, what we eat, what keeps us safe, how we move around and fight — that comes from the people, our people and foreign people.”
Boots, tourniquets and satellite phones
The journey began hundreds of miles to the north in a warehouse in Lithuania, a country not usually thought of as a military supply hub.
But this tiny Baltic nation has seen a huge outpouring of support for Ukraine, imagining what Russian President Vladimir Putin might have in store for it should he prevail in his current invasion. Vilnius, Lithuania’s small medieval-era capital, is filled with blue and yellow Ukrainian flags.
Much of the donated money and supplies has flowed to Blue and Yellow, a nonprofit founded in 2014 to supply Ukrainians fighting the takeover of eastern Ukraine by Russian-backed separatists. Now the group is the focal point of a country’s yearning to help.
“It has just exploded,” said Jonas Ohman, a Swedish-born filmmaker who started the group.
For years, Ohman said, he took no salary and had no paid staff as he fulfilled direct requests from front-line units with an annual budget of less than $200,000. Since the invasion last month, more than $20 million has poured in from within Lithuania, a country of 2.8 million residents. He is dispatching a convoy to the border every four or five days.
With a cellphone held against a days-old beard, Ohman orders military gear by the ton from around Europe, China, Israel. He argues with customs officials in a half-dozen countries to get the shipments delivered, railing against functionaries who block his way and officers who are slaves to regulation.
“I tell them all the time: 10,000 euros can be more deadly than a million if you know how to spend it,” he growled between phone calls.
Ohman has filled one donated warehouse on the outskirts of Poland’s capital, Warsaw. Another in Vilnius, provided by a Lithuanian transport company, has become a drop-off site for locals wanting to give.
“These will work,” one volunteer declared on a recent afternoon when a truck arrived at the Vilnius warehouse with 800 pairs of new steel-toed boots and 1,000 fleece jackets still in the wrapper, all donated by a hunting goods retailer.
A forklift unloaded the cases, depositing them next to 14 pallets of IV saline solutions and boxes filled with 13,000 trauma tourniquets and 200 satellite phones.
A local marketing company has launched a fundraising campaign for the group. And a group of Rotary Club volunteers makes calls to military suppliers in surrounding countries.
“Everything in Europe is selling out,” said Zemyna Bliumenzonaite, a Blue and Yellow staffer. “But we are getting more requests than ever.”
She held out her phone to show some of the texts she gets from soldiers in Ukraine. One named “Kruk” asked for 1,000 tourniquets and 40 individual first aid kits. She tells him they will be in the next convoy.
“You are our Guardian Angel,” he writes back.
Donated and armor-plated
“I heard they needed bigger vehicles and four-wheel drives,” said Dainius Navikas, 43, a Vilnius management consultant who immediately thought of his black 2015 Grand Cherokee. “I had no choice. The Ukrainians are fighting for us.”
Navikas and wife drove the Jeep — along with an extra set of winter tires — to a designated garage on the outskirts of the Lithuanian capital. They found a lot packed with dozens of vehicles ready to be processed and shipped to Ukraine.
Some had been signed over by their owners. Others had been bought by Blue and Yellow.
“When they hear we are buying for Ukraine, a lot them of them drop the price immediately,” said Lukas Pacevicius, the owner of the garage, who has largely suspended his regular business activities.
Working overnights and weekends, mechanics check the engines, sending them out to transmission or brake shops if needed. Armor plating is welded to some of the pickups, following specifications provided by the soldiers.
On a recent day, dozens of volunteers were scrambling around the vehicles, covering their windows and headlights with paper and masking tape ahead of repainting the bodies. Workers dodged the vehicles as they were shuttled from one part of the line to another.
Two men wearing Tyvek suits and respirators, well practiced in painting and not too fastidious, transformed Navikas’s glossy black Grand Cherokee into a dull green patrol vehicle in under 20 minutes. And then a Mercedes Sprinter, and then a Nissan Pathfinder. An olive mist hung over the entire workshop.
“We want to cover every reflective surface, even the bumpers and wheels,” said Rolandas Jundo, the owner of a sign company who was applying window tinting to a Land Rover that still reeked of paint.
Driving into the Polish dawn
Three days later, gassed up with donated fuel, most of the vehicles were driven onto car carriers. Two local tow trucks hitched up four more vehicles. Four men wrangled a military mobile kitchen into a panel truck.
With the sun still high, the convoy pulled out, flanked by a pair of Lithuanian police cars. Just outside of Vilnius, a group of people on a pedestrian bridge shouted and pumped their fists when the odd parade rolled under.
“It feels very important,” said one of the drivers, who like several volunteers spoke on the condition of anonymity due to a combination of modesty and security concerns. “We still have a lot of crazy Fifth-Column types around,” said another driver, referring to Russian sympathizers.
The convoy moved as fast as its slowest truck, about 50 miles an hour on average. At a gas station just before the Polish border, Lithuanian police handed off to their Polish counterparts. Sometime after 2 a.m., everyone pulled into a rest area north of Warsaw for two hours of sleep.
By dawn, forests had given way to rolling fields. The police escort kept their lights flashing and sounded their sirens as the trucks rumbled through red lights. Surprised locals stared from village sidewalks.
Nineteen hours and many cans of Red Bull later, the convoy pulled up at the unmarked entrance to Ukraine.
‘Our firepower, our mobility’
Bystriyk, an officer with the Zaporizhzhia Territorial Defense Brigade, had just endured his own all-night drive to reach the rendezvous. His was one of about 20 Ukrainian units, both regular military and volunteer militia, that had dispatched representatives to meet the convoy.
Bystriyk had driven about 11 hours from the area around the besieged city of Dnipro in eastern Ukraine in hopes of getting vehicles and an upgrade on the body armor that most of his men now wear: homemade vests cobbled together by local residents with steel and canvas. “They try to bend it like a body shape, but it doesn’t work,” he said.
It would take about 3,000 sets of body armor to fully outfit his men, Bystriyk said. He had been told he might get as many as 400 when the second expected convoy arrived. In the meantime, he eagerly eyed the vehicles that were carried by the first one.
“Stingers and Javelins are critical of course,” he said of the antiaircraft and antitank missiles. “But for us, these vehicles are essential. They are our firepower, our mobility.”
Ukrainian soldiers drove them to a spot where border officials would fill out paperwork and then the vehicles would be distributed. One soldier made a beeline for a brand new CForce quad ATV — to be used in cavalry-like raids by Ukrainian Special Forces — and rode off with a grin.
Bystriyk looked for a truck that his men could mount with a rocket launcher or machine gun, creating one of the “specials” common with fighters in Libya, Syria and other recent hot spots. There weren’t as many pickups as in a delivery a week earlier, but he was glad to see Pathfinders, Freelanders, Pajeros.
Videos posted by Ukrainian fighters on social media show teams in SUVs like these outmaneuvering Russian armored vehicles, popping out from forests or side streets to hit them with rocket-propelled grenades and dashing away.
“Every day the Russians try to enter Zaporizhzhia and every day we have stopped them,” Bystriyk. “We need these cars. And we are thankful the Lithuanians are bringing them.”
In the end, Bystriyk was satisfied with a beefy Nissan Patrol to drive back to the war. But he learned that the convoy with the vests and helmets would be delayed because of a customs hang-up.
He would be back at this unlikely supply site, he knew. Probably many times.
“We need a lot,” he said. “And the need is still growing.”
10. Four U.S. service members killed when aircraft crashes in Norway during NATO exercise
May our lost Marines rest in peace.
A buried lede. The fact there are 30,000 troops from 27 countries training in Norway would seem pretty significant even if this is a routine exercise long planned and taking place every two years. A hop, skip, and a jump to Russia? Not that we are planning for that but it is likely Putin interprets it that way.
The aircraft was assigned to participate in Exercise Cold Response 2022, a “long-planned and regular” routine that Norway hosts every two years, according to the NATO military alliance. Around 30,000 troops from more than 27 NATO countries have gathered to train in Norway’s cold weather.
Four U.S. service members killed when aircraft crashes in Norway during NATO exercise
Four American service members were killed on Friday night when a U.S. military aircraft crashed in Norway while taking part in a NATO exercise, the Norwegian prime minister said.
“The soldiers participated in the NATO exercise Cold Response. Our deepest sympathies go to the soldiers’ families, relatives and fellow soldiers in their unit,” Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store said Saturday morning.
The U.S. Marine Corps aircraft was reported missing Friday while participating in a NATO military exercise, the Norwegian military said earlier.
The U.S. 2nd Marine Expeditionary Force, in a statement, did not specify how many people were in the MV-22B Osprey, which is capable of vertical takeoffs and landings and is primarily used to transport troops and equipment in support of amphibious assaults.
Norwegian civilian authorities led search and rescue efforts, the Marines said. The aircraft was assigned to participate in Exercise Cold Response 2022, a “long-planned and regular” routine that Norway hosts every two years, according to the NATO military alliance. Around 30,000 troops from more than 27 NATO countries have gathered to train in Norway’s cold weather.
Norway announced Friday that it would step up defense spending in support of forces near its border with Russia. The Cold Response exercise, which started this month and will last until April, comes on the heels of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, although NATO stressed that the exercise was not in response.
11. Putin Is Telegraphing His Weakness
Hopefully.
Putin Is Telegraphing His Weakness
Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a concert marking the eighth anniversary of Russia's annexation of Crimea at the Luzhniki stadium in Moscow on March 18, 2022 (Photo by SERGEI GUNEYEV/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)
1. Week 3
We’ve now gone three straight weeks without Russia achieving any significant military or political objectives in Ukraine. Instead, Russia has suffered a series of defeats. Their strategic position is not salvageable by conventional means. And Vladimir Putin’s political position may not be, either.
Some things to note:
(1) From Volodymyr Zelensky this morning:
What’s notable about this appeal is that you can only talk like this from a position of strength. Zelensky does not have to posture and pretend to be tough; he does not have to boost morale at home by talking about unleashing hell on evil Russian soldiers. Ukrainian forces have been so successful that he can attack Putin’s regime by going directly to the Russian people and position himself as their ally.
(2) Putin’s ceasefire wishlist is an advertisement of weakness:
He’s broadcasting the fact that NATO weapons are chewing up his forces, that Ukraine is on track to be accepted into Western Europe, and that even his hold on the Donbas region is not likely to survive the invasion.
3. Kremlinology
Last week I noted the arrests in the Fifth Directorate. There’s more turmoil in the upper ranks of Putin’s government.
Arresting generals is not a sign of either stability or strength.
2. Rally Time
Here is another thing that is not a sign strength: Holding a gigantic, heavily-produced war rally:
These are scenes from Moscow today, where Putin held a rally that was half Wrestlemania and half Trump Revenge Tour:
Again, this looks to me like a man telegraphing weakness. If popular opinion was with Putin, he wouldn’t need a massive staged production to simulate public support.
Weak dictators are dangerous dictators. Expect matters to get worse before they get better.
3. Putin’s People
Sam Freedman on Putin’s populist roots:
You may be thinking, so what? Putin was already a dictator and has taken significant additional coercive powers in the past few weeks. Does it make any difference what ordinary people think? But throughout his time in power he has been obsessed with popular opinion, commissioning numerous polls from state pollsters, and reacting swiftly to drops in support. This is for good reason. As Sam Greene and Graeme Robertson wrote in their excellent study of Russian popular opinion “Putin vs The People”, the Russian President has “co-constructed” his rule:
“The whole edifice of Putin’s power is reinforced day after day by the actions and beliefs of millions of Russians….The power generally ascribed to Putin himself actually stems from millions of private citizens willingly acting as unprompted enforcers of Putin’s power in society. This happens in myriad ways. People take part in pro-government shows of strength on the streets and volunteer to fight in Ukraine….More often though, co-construction means reinforcing Putin’s power in more mundane ways, through small-scale social pressure: the boss who insists his employees vote; the school teacher who inculcates uncritical acceptance of Putin’s heroism…These are the real sources of Putin’s power today.”
No surprise then that he has moved so quickly to shut off independent sources of information. But even with his control over the narrative people can see economic effects and see friends in mourning for lost sons, and even some permitted news programmes have acknowledged things haven’t gone quite to plan. In order to understand how this might affect support for Putin and the effect that might have on the war, it’s worth spending some time trying to understand why Putin has been so, genuinely, popular in Russia, what has threatened that popularity the most, and how he has reacted to that. . . .
The first wobble came in 2011. In 2008 Putin had handed over the Presidency to Dmitry Medvedev after his two terms allowed under the constitution, and taken the apparently subordinate post of Prime Minister instead. While no one really doubted that Putin was still in charge, this allowed people to hope that he still intended to follow some rules. But then he announced he would return to the Presidency. This combined with obviously fixed parliamentary elections led to the first serious protests of his time in power, with hundreds of thousands taking to the streets in Moscow.
The first consequence of this was a significant increase in repressive activity by Putin’s forces. On 6th May 2012, the day before his re-inauguration, a final protest was brutally suppressed with multiple arrests and hospitalisations. Speaking out against Putin became increasingly dangerous.
But it also led the Kremlin to shift political strategy. As Greene and Robertson put it:
“[pre-2011] the goal for the most part was to keep politics away from the people and the people away from politics. The challenge from the streets in 2011 changed all that. Now, the Russian state would actively take politics to the people, first in the form of policeman and prison guards, then on television and online. The goal was to transform passive acceptance of Putin’s rule into active participation.”
12. On Ukraine, what a change in just a few weeks
Excerpts:
The unstated hope in the West is that the Russians themselves will take appropriate corrective action by convincing the autocrat to either cease his war of choice or, failing that, by removing him from office by force of arms. These scenarios would certainly be convenient, but must be considered unlikely, at least in the near term.
A big worry is Putin’s veiled threat to use nuclear weapons. There are no easy or simple answers here. The Western nations must remain prudent. The united front that has developed between the E.U. and United States is both necessary and heartening. But the pressing question is, will the sea change be enough?
On Ukraine, what a change in just a few weeks | Column
There has been an enormous sea change within the European Union, the United States and around the globe sparked by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s unwarranted and illegal invasion of Ukraine. There is a massive wave of support for the resistance. Suddenly, it is in vogue to speak of freedom, sovereignty and what the West stands for. Putin’s unprovoked assault is rightly taken as an attack on democracy.
Robert Bruce Adolph is a former US Army Special Forces Lieutenant Colonel and United Nations Chief Security Advisor, who holds graduate degrees in both international affairs and national security studies and strategy. His previously published works have appeared in nearly every US military publication of note. Most recently, he penned the commentary series “Dispatch from Rome” for the Military Times. Adolph also recently published the book entitled “Surviving the United Nations: The Unexpected Challenge.” [ Courtesy of Robert Adolph ]
Although perhaps more symbolic than actual, diplomats in Strasbourg are considering accelerating the timetable for Kyiv’s accession into the E.U., something that was unthinkable only a short time ago. European and American politicians are sounding more combative, more supportive of those under siege and more engaged with their fellow democracies with every passing day. Even famously independent Finland and Sweden are now seriously considering NATO membership.
Vladimir Putin has unintentionally re-injected long-dead clarity into the conduct of international affairs on the continent. It is clear who the aggressor is, and who is in the right. All Europe agrees for the first time in decades. We have not seen this kind unanimity since the Cold War.
A pugnacious Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks to the U.S. Congress and European Parliament via video-link from the front lines. His speeches meet with thunderous applause, not necessarily because of his eloquence, but because of his courage in refusing to depart his embattled nation — to share the danger and fight with his army. That’s leadership.
The economic implications are startling and mounting. The Nord Stream 2 pipeline project is — literally — dead in the water. The European democracies may soon wean themselves off their dependence on Russian gas and oil. Major Western petroleum companies have extracted themselves from their commitments to former Russian partners, as have multiple other major business interests.
Sanctions and the confiscation of luxury yachts and mansions are hammering the fortunes of Russian oligarchs. The common people of Russia suffer too, and worse. The ruble’s devaluation is tanking the savings and buying power of the populace. Crippling economic and financial sanctions are pushing Russia into recession. Putin miscalculated.
Moscow’s multiple brutal stabs into Ukraine are revitalizing the NATO military alliance as nothing else ever has. E.U. nations are openly discussing increasing military budgets, as they search for additional alternatives to punish the Kremlin for its outrageous violation of international law and norms of conduct. The United States and E.U. are supplying Zelenskyy’s armed forces with more weapons and ammunition, especially highly effective fire-and-forget anti-aircraft Stinger and anti-armor Javelin missiles. The White House and Congress are singing from the same hymnal for the first time in a very long while — agreeing to funnel billions into the Resistance. Popular opinion in Europe, and around the world is squarely in the Ukrainian camp.
The unstated hope in the West is that the Russians themselves will take appropriate corrective action by convincing the autocrat to either cease his war of choice or, failing that, by removing him from office by force of arms. These scenarios would certainly be convenient, but must be considered unlikely, at least in the near term.
A big worry is Putin’s veiled threat to use nuclear weapons. There are no easy or simple answers here. The Western nations must remain prudent. The united front that has developed between the E.U. and United States is both necessary and heartening. But the pressing question is, will the sea change be enough?
Robert Bruce Adolph is a former senior Army Special Forces soldier and United Nations security chief, who holds graduate degrees in both international affairs & strategy. He is the author of the new book entitled, “Surviving the United Nations: The Unexpected Challenge.”
13. 4 reasons why social media can give a skewed account of the war in Ukraine
Common sense but important reminders.
The 4 reasons:
Satellites are not all-seeing
Not everything you see may be real
Social media during a war is like social media the rest of the time
Remember you’re seeing just a small part of the picture
4 reasons why social media can give a skewed account of the war in Ukraine
NPR · by Geoff Brumfiel · March 19, 2022
Iryna Holoshchapova, a Ukrainian refugee who fled the embattled city of Mykolaiv, shows a video on her smartphone of an apartment block on fire following a Russian attack. Sean Gallup/Getty Images
As the war in Ukraine unfolds, many people are watching it on their phones. Social media is awash in photos, videos and satellite images. But some experts worry that the picture painted by these online posts is not always accurate. Here are some tips to guide you as you navigate through the flood of online information about Ukraine.
Satellites are not all-seeing
Images from satellites are shaping our understanding of this conflict like never before. They have spied Russian bases and cataloged the destruction caused by Russia’s brutal attacks on Ukrainian cities.
But satellites can’t do it all.
Imaging satellites travel around the Earth from south to north every 90 minutes or so, photographing a ribbon of the land as they go. “You’re going by really fast, and you’re seeing things really quickly,” says Robert Cardillo, a former director of the U.S. National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency and now a senior executive at the commercial company Planet Labs.
That means any given satellite can take a picture of a particular place only once a day, and the higher the resolution of the satellite, the less area on the ground it can image.
A March 15 satellite image shows fires burning at Ukraine’s Kherson air base after a reported strike against Russian forces using the base. Satellites are playing a major role in documenting events in the war in Ukraine, but they have limited capabilities. Planet Labs PBC
All this makes satellites good at looking at a known location, like a city or an air base, but there’s still plenty they can miss: particularly troops on the move. Moreover, if it’s overcast, optical imaging satellites can’t see anything at all through the clouds.
Planet Labs operates over 200 satellites so it can check a spot on the Earth multiple times a day. Other companies have their own sets of satellites. It’s an unprecedented time for civilian imaging from space, Cardillo says. But the technology is still far from the unblinking eyes that are usually depicted in the movies.
Not everything you see may be real
On Wednesday, a “deepfake” video showed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy calling on soldiers to lay down their weapons.
A deepfake of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky calling on his soldiers to lay down their weapons was reportedly uploaded to a hacked Ukrainian news website today, per @Shayan86 pic.twitter.com/tXLrYECGY4
— Mikael Thalen (@MikaelThalen) March 16, 2022
The video, which was heavily manipulated, “is not very well done,” said Sam Gregory of human rights group Witness, which specializes in detecting inauthentic media in crises. Nevertheless, the emergence of this video points to potential problems, in particular a “so-called liar’s dividend, where it’s easy to claim a true video is falsified and place the onus on people to prove it’s authentic,” Gregory said.
Outright fakes are not always needed. Often images are stolen from earlier wars or other parts of the world and relabeled. For example, a photo of an injured child was circulated at the start of the conflict. It was taken several years earlier in Syria.
In general, experts say the best idea is to stop before punching the share button and ask questions of what you’re seeing: What’s the source? Are other people reporting the same thing? And does it feed into biases you may already have?
Social media during a war is like social media the rest of the time
Hundreds of videos and photos are being posted each day, but most people are just seeing the handful that get the most likes and shares.
And just because something is upvoted doesn’t make it accurate. Take, for example, a TikTok video of an attractive woman showing how to start a Russian armored vehicle.
The video has over 7 million views. “It was depicted as this [vehicle] has been, you know, taken by Ukrainian forces or resistance,” says Rita Konaev at Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology. “That’s not what it was.”
According to a fact check by Reuters, the woman is a Russian auto mechanic and vlogger. She filmed herself about a year before the invasion driving the armored vehicle for fun in Russia.
@nastyatyman Как завести БТР ЧПЕК#настятуман #бтр80 #девушкаавтомеханик #рек #авто #покажисвойтранспорт ♬ оригинальный звук - Туман Настя
“Even though that is not something significant, I think it tells part of a broader story about the type of things that get amplified,” Konaev says.
The fun how-to-drive-an-armored-vehicle video gets lots of likes and shares, but that’s because it’s fun to watch, not because it’s true.
Remember you’re seeing just a small part of the picture
Social media likes simple, bite-size stories. But this war is a lot more complicated.
“You could see a TikTok video showing 10 destroyed Russian tanks, but 10 tanks is only a small sample of what the Russians have,” says Jeffrey Lewis, a professor of arms control at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey.
A destroyed Russian vehicle is seen after battles on a main road north of Kyiv, Ukraine. The image of a single vehicle is powerful, but it doesn’t tell the whole story. Felipe Dana/AP
Professional scholars like Lewis spend hours trying to match battle damage videos to satellite imagery and other reports. “It’s a lot more complicated than just looking at your phone,” he says.
Konaev says a real risk is that people fill in the gaps with their own biases. When a video of a few Russian soldiers surrendering goes viral, “it starts leading to these narratives about, you know, massive desertion, mutiny — Russian troops are about to turn around.”
That, frankly, doesn’t seem to be the case.
Konaev understands why people are seeking out information about the war online. “These bits of information do give you a sense of control in a moment of utter chaos around you,” she says. Just remember: There will never be a single post, article or Twitter thread that can truly capture all of what’s happening in Ukraine.
NPR’s Bobby Allyn and Shannon Bond contributed to this report.
NPR · by Geoff Brumfiel · March 19, 2022
14. HASC leaders want next-gen Stinger replacement, as stockpile dwindles due to Ukraine
The Stinger has been around for a long time. Time for a new one (unless what is not broke does not need fixing). When I first came in the Army (now 40+ years ago) we still had the Redeye which was the predecessor to the Stinger (and I bet we will never get a naming convention like Redeye again- some had a sense of satire for a heat skiing missile that goes after the heat from the rear of the plane's engine.)
EXCLUSIVE: HASC leaders want next-gen Stinger replacement, as stockpile dwindles due to Ukraine - Breaking Defense
“The committee urges focus on the most rapid possible development, testing, and fielding of a more capable SHORAD system and would favorably consider an appropriate reprogramming request to get this started,” wrote HASC Chairman Adam Smith and Rep. Mike Rogers, its top Republican.
A US Marine trains with a Stinger in a file photo. (U.S. Marine Corps/Rachel K. Young)
WASHINGTON: The top two leaders of the House Armed Services Committee are sounding the alarm for the US military to develop a modern short range air defense system that would allow it and its allies to replenish the thousands of Stinger anti-aircraft systems that are currently being transferred to Ukraine.
“We believe this is a matter of the highest urgency,” Smith, D-Wash., and Rogers, R-Ala., wrote in the letter, which Breaking Defense exclusively obtained.
Smith and Rogers implored the Pentagon to accelerate the development of a short range air defense (SHORAD) system that could replace the FIM-92 Stinger, a Raytheon Technologies-produced system that was designed in the late 1960s.
“The committee urges focus on the most rapid possible development, testing, and fielding of a more capable SHORAD system and would favorably consider an appropriate reprogramming request to get this started,” they wrote.
Specifically, the lawmakers said the new system should be low-cost, exportable to allies and available in 36 months.
“Events in Europe have demonstrated the importance of such a capability and the need for the Army and Marine Corps to develop a plan to invigorate the industrial base, buy-down strategic risk in our current capability, and accelerate the development of a follow-on SHORAD system that can be rapidly fielded,” Smith and Rogers wrote.
While the Army has previously signaled interest in replacing Stinger, a program of record has not materialized. In 2020, the service released a sources sought notice for a Stinger replacement, postulating a potential contract award for 6,000 missiles in fiscal year 2026, Aviation Week reported. However, there has been little activity since the Army put out that solicitation.
The HASC leaders’ letter comes just days after President Joe Biden announced an additional $800 million in military assistance to Ukraine. The latest package includes 800 Stinger anti-aircraft systems, on top of more than 600 Stingers previously delivered to the Ukrainian military. (In total, the administration has ordered $2 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since January 2021.)
Earlier this month, Congress passed a fiscal 2022 spending bill that contained $13.6 billion in aid to Ukraine, including additional funds for military aid made via Presidential Drawdown Authority. The expectation is for some of that money to be used to send additional Stinger systems to Ukraine, Smith and Rogers wrote.
15. Ultraviolent Warfare: Where Conflicts Often Go.
I am loath to accept new terms for warfare. However, Conrad Crane offers one that should make us think. And of course his analysis rests on an understanding of history. There is nothing new under the sun especially if reason cannot constrain passion (and of course chance always has an impact).
Ultraviolent Warfare: Where Conflicts Often Go.
March 19, 2022
Television viewers in Europe and the United States have been both mesmerized and appalled watching the increasing violence in the ongoing war in Ukraine. Many are surprised not only by the outbreak of war but also the course it is following. We have been conditioned by a decade of writers like Stephen Pinker. He is a Harvard University professor of psychology who argued in his influential book The Better Angels of Our Nature that there are a host of psychological, biological, cultural, and historical reasons for a decline of violence in the world. There has been a decline in wars between nations, though critics have countered that has been matched with an increase in intrastate conflicts. However, even if there are fewer “big wars” in this new era, we cannot assume they will somehow be less violent than their predecessors. Commentators on the current war in Ukraine consistently refer to recent Russian military operations in Grozny and Aleppo to project the future tragic course of the conflict. But those examples are not unique. The mass targeting of civilian concentrations is a tactic as old as warfare. And it is often very terrible and has only gotten worse.
Thucydides' classic book on the Peloponnesian War is full of examples of cities razed in punishment for resistance or revolt. The famous Melian dialogue depicts the classic dilemma of besieged towns – surrender or risk total destruction. The island of Melos chose not to give up to the Athenians but fell after a lengthy siege. All adult males were executed, and the women and children were sold into slavery. Such drastic repercussions always have two purposes, to punish those who resisted and deter other cities and towns from doing the same.
There have been plenty of other examples since then. When the Romans finally conquered Carthage in the Third Punic War in 146 BC, they killed or enslaved all the inhabitants, destroyed the city, and salted the earth. When Jerusalem fell to the soldiers of the First Crusade in 1099, while there is some argument about the actual number killed, there was great slaughter in a frenzy of greed, lust, and religious fervor. History is replete with the purposeful targeting of helpless civilian concentrations for military and political purposes. Combatants in the Hundred Years War in the 14th Century often conducted “chevauchees,” raids through enemy territory to spread death and destruction to coerce their rulers into concessions. The largest loss of life in the terrible Thirty Years War was the sacking of Magdeburg by the Catholic League in 1631, resulting in the death of 25,000 non-combatants. French troops depopulated most of the German Palatinate in a ruthless campaign in 1688-1689. Some consider American military campaigns against the Indians that included the purposeful razing of their villages genocide and escalation during our Civil War left harsh memories in the southern United States. William Tecumseh Sherman and Ulysses Grant both realized that to defeat a fully mobilized democracy, it would be necessary to make the costs of war felt throughout society.
However, the capability to inflict mass civilian casualties and destroy vulnerable modern cities expanded greatly with industrialization in the 19th and 20th Centuries. One of the first indicators of the new possibilities occurred with the Prussian artillery barrages that forced the surrender of Paris in 1871. World War I featured some bloody sieges, but the full impact of the expanded capability for carnage really became apparent in World War II.
Masses of artillery and fleets of bombers wreaked havoc in a conflict that killed at least 50 million civilians. This was especially evident on the Eastern Front, where quarter was rarely granted on either side. There are many graphic accounts of the atrocities during the German attack into Russia and the bloody urban battle for Stalingrad that really ended German hopes for victory in the theater. The Russian drive back was even more terrible than the original German advance. The siege of Warsaw in 1944 added more tribulation for a population already suffering from the effects of a brutal occupation. The culmination of ultraviolent trends came in Berlin in 1945. The mass rape and pillage exceeded excesses from previous centuries, as did the total destruction of the city wreaked by years of bombing and weeks of massed artillery. There were similar examples of carnage in the Asia-Pacific theater, as Richard Frank points out in the first volume of his trilogy of that part of the war, Tower of Skulls. The Japanese Rape of Nanking in 1937 resulted in the deaths of at least 200,000 civilians along with the sexual assault of between 20,000 and 80,000 women.
Strategic airpower magnified the trends in WWII ultraviolent warfare even further. Belligerents did not have the technology, nor really the inclination in most cases, for real bombing accuracy, but they had the industrial might to build lots of bombs and bombers with the ability to punish cities around the clock. At least 300,000 civilians died from air attacks in both Germany and Japan. The Hamburg firestorm started by the Royal Air Force in 1943 killed at least 45,000 people. Curtis LeMay's fire raid on Tokyo on the night of March 9, 1945, incinerated as many as 100,000 Japanese. And, of course, the war ended with atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
Bombing again wreaked havoc on North Korea in 1952 and 1953. The main UN tool to coerce concessions at the peace table was American airpower. By the time an armistice was signed, 18 of 22 major cities had been more than half obliterated, and many North Koreans were living in caves. One of the main motivations for Kim Jong Un’s nuclear program is to avoid a repeat of that devastation. Even the advent of precision munitions did not prevent this inevitable escalation of violence. The 78 day air campaign against Serbia that was instrumental in coercing Milosevic to concede over Kosovo was effective at least in part because escalating attacks against dual-use targets inspired memories of Tokyo and Hiroshima. Modern trends toward urbanization have also created even more concentrations of civilians vulnerable to mass targeting.
A sad fact of warfare is that any standards of restraint tend to fray as wars drag on, even for a nation like the United States. Throughout history, conflicts between peers or near peers almost always turn into lengthy wars of attrition. While Ukraine’s military capacity does not equal the invaders, factors such as Western technological aid, fanatic popular resistance, and surprising Russian ineptitude have made the contest more equal than simple force ratios would imply. The Russian military experience has been more brutal than ours, and they have far fewer restraints to erode if any. Modern technology along with Russian military history and practices portend a grim future for Ukrainian cities.
This will create challenges for leaders in the United States and Europe. Public expectations have been shaped by visions of an interconnected world where no two countries with McDonald's will ever go to war, and even if war begins, precision munitions will limit damage in a conflict that resembles a video game. We in the West must be instead prepared for another grim tally of civilians killed in the grinder of ultraviolent warfare. What will be different this time is that we will be watching the death and destruction on our television screens. As the scenes of carnage engage "the better angels of our nature," Abraham Lincoln described in his First Inaugural, there will be increasing cries to stop the slaughter that will be difficult to ignore. Tens of thousands of Ukrainian deaths, or much worse, will deliver a massive shock to both public psyches and the international system. That should reinforce a lesson too often ignored by politicians and the public, war is a bloody business that continues to engage and devastate vulnerable civilian populations. And the level of potential violence involved has only increased, not declined, even without a resort to nuclear weapons.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not purport to reflect the positions of the U.S. Army War College, Department of the Army, or Departments of Defense. The author has no special access to intelligence or any operational matters that are not otherwise available to the general public.
16. China’s Great-Power Play
Published the night before the Biden-Xi call but I think it is still relevant.
Excerpts:
Beijing may also calculate it can “win” in Ukraine no matter what happens. If Mr. Putin conquers the country, Mr. Xi will have picked the winning horse. If the invasion fails, the West and America’s Asian allies may still be demoralized by a partition of Ukraine—and Russia will be a reliable supplier of natural resources to China for as long as Western sanctions persist.
Yet the nature of Great Power politics is that none of this will be cost-free for Beijing. By picking a side China by definition antagonizes those on the other side—including its own neighbors and economic partners.
China’s Great-Power Play
Xi Jinping is standing by Russia on Ukraine, and the costs of doing so will mount.
By The Editorial Board
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Updated March 17, 2022 8:03 pm ET
WSJ · by The Editorial Board
Messrs. Xi and Putin in early February declared their friendship has “no limits,” and Mr. Xi is honoring that pledge. While Beijing makes half-hearted bows toward neutrality in the war, Mr. Xi has exerted no pressure on Mr. Putin to stop it. China’s propaganda on Ukraine has a decided pro-Russia, anti-American tone. Beijing is resisting sanctions on Russia (as much as its banks can without jeopardizing their access to dollars). It may yet supply arms to Russia to support the war.
Mr. Xi must view the West’s closure to Russia as a boon for China, which stands ready to buy as much energy and other resources as Mr. Putin is willing to sell. It’s a bonus that China might be able to pay for them with Chinese yuan, which Beijing has long wanted to make a global trade currency.
Above all, this conflict gives Beijing a new opportunity to put itself forward as the leader of a global faction hostile to democracy, economic freedom and U.S. leadership. China’s economic heft now gives it the means to try this gambit, and Mr. Xi’s desire to block any breeze of freedom within his own country is motive enough.
Beijing may also calculate it can “win” in Ukraine no matter what happens. If Mr. Putin conquers the country, Mr. Xi will have picked the winning horse. If the invasion fails, the West and America’s Asian allies may still be demoralized by a partition of Ukraine—and Russia will be a reliable supplier of natural resources to China for as long as Western sanctions persist.
Yet the nature of Great Power politics is that none of this will be cost-free for Beijing. By picking a side China by definition antagonizes those on the other side—including its own neighbors and economic partners.
Within days of Mr. Putin’s invasion, Japan renewed a debate about nuclear sharing with the U.S., South Korea elected a more pro-American president, and several traditionally neutral Asian countries joined Western sanctions on Russia in a signal to Beijing. Germany, long among China’s closest friends in Europe, is reconsidering its economic relationship. Mr. Xi’s alliance with Mr. Putin will also harden attitudes toward China in the United States.
China’s new friends could also prove to be a headache. The U.S. discovered after World War II that the price of global leadership is substantial economic support for followers. If Beijing’s plan is to adopt Russia as some sort of client state, is it really ready to take responsibility for an impoverished and badly governed economy of Russia’s scale?
Nor will Mr. Xi’s great-power play be an obvious boost to the domestic political stability he craves. Every other great power has discovered that such a prominent global role comes with incessant internal debates about how to wield such power. Such a debate may be simmering under the surface now.
The pot boiled up briefly last week in an unusual public essay in which prominent think-tank scholar Hu Wei warned that Mr. Xi’s Russia policy may backfire by encouraging other countries to ally against China. Beijing now appears to have censored that essay, but the questions it raised are sure to linger in a year when Mr. Xi is set on securing another five-year term as the country’s leader.
***
President Biden and Mr. Xi are scheduled to speak by phone on Friday, and U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan met with Chinese officials in Rome this week with Ukraine on the agenda. Little has leaked about what happened in that confab, other than that Mr. Sullivan issued a warning not to assist Russia.
That’s the right message, but China has already assisted Russia—and betrayed Western Europe. Its acquiescence in Mr. Putin’s invasion has shown that it puts the desires of a marauding dictator above its trading and diplomatic relations with the West. China has picked the wrong horse, and it has shown again, as in Hong Kong, that it can’t be trusted.
The West should respond accordingly as it seeks to defend Taiwan and the free world’s interests from the Communist Party.
WSJ · by The Editorial Board
17. Legion of the damned: Inside Ukraine’s army of misfits, veterans, and war tourists in the fight against Russia
We sure do have some ugly (and ignorant) Americans as war tourists. But that should not detract from the credible veterans who are trying to do some good.
The buried lede for me is how the Ukrainians are evaluating, training, and employing these volunteers. I think some Americans come with a chip on their shoulder who think they are coming as savoirs but have far inferior skills and abilities than the Ukrainian soldiers and leaders.
Excerpt:
Although the Legionnaires helped to halt the attack, their performance that day was uneven — an observation that led the Ukrainians to discharge the surviving members of the initial intake, without any ceremony or official notification. Worse was to come. An unknown number of new recruits were training at a camp near the border when, a strike by Tupolev bombers, carrying Kh 101 cruise missiles, destroyed the camp. The death toll is not yet clear, but Ukrainian officers have told me that it will likely be more than 100.
With most of its initial intake now discharged, and many from subsequent intakes killed or wounded, the plan to stand up the Ukrainian Foreign Legion program is one part of the Ukrainian war effort that is definitely not going well.
“We should only take experienced combat veterans — that is the lesson that we are learning,” a Ukrainian general told Task & Purpose on condition of anonymity. “The others don’t know what they are getting themselves into – and when they find out, they want to go home. We need specialized skills – especially snipers.”
Legion of the damned: Inside Ukraine’s army of misfits, veterans, and war tourists in the fight against Russia
Every war has its own dynamics which can be equally lethal to veterans and beginners if not properly understood.
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LVIV, Ukraine — “Jesus, what a fucked up country,” John said in exasperation at the vagaries of the Polish rail system. John was one of the latest recruits for Ukrainian President Zelensky’s Foreign Legion, bound for the Ukrainian city of Lviv where his recruiter had told him to report. A rail-thin, 20-something from Mobile, Alabama, John had tried the U.S. Army but left halfway through his enlistment due to “medical problems,” he told me. I wondered if his medical problems had resolved sufficiently for him to be fighting the Russians but said nothing. Sporting woodland camouflage, a scraggly goatee, and thick glasses of the style made famous by Jeffrey Dahmer, John seemed to me to be an unlikely candidate. He soon confirmed that impression.
“I wanted to fight, see,” he explained, “But my mom said that I wouldn’t be any good at that. So I figured, they are going to need someone to show them the way.”
The Way – it turned out – was not the Way to expel the Russians, but a different kind of Way. John was here to enlist in the Ukrainian Army as a chaplain. I tried to be encouraging but couldn’t deflect an image of John delivering eulogies in broad Alabaman to uncomprehending Ukrainian soldiers as they headed up the line. Sorry about the no-fly zone thing President Zelensky, but we can save the Ukrainian people in other ways.
John, incidentally, was one of the first prospective Legion recruits whom I met, but by all accounts, his story was not unusual. The initial crop of applicants has been a mixed bag – with a swarm of Fantasists for every one candidate with experience in combat. And even combat experience means little in this war – because trading shots with the Taliban or al Qaeda is quite different from crouching in a freezing foxhole being pummeled by artillery fire.
Ukranian servicemen run outside a destroyed apartment building in a residential area after shelling in Kyiv on March 18, 2022, as Russian troops try to encircle the Ukrainian capital as part of their slow-moving offensive. – Authorities in Kyiv said one person was killed early today when a downed Russian rocket struck a residential building in the capital’s northern suburbs. They said a school and playground were also hit. (Photo by Aris Messinis / AFP) (Photo by ARIS MESSINIS/AFP via Getty Images)
Recruits for the Ukrainian Foreign Legion are invited to apply via the Ukrainian embassy in their country of residence. After a cursory initial interview, they are told to head for Ukraine via Warsaw and overland to Lviv in western Ukraine. The route is so well known that it is heavily monitored by the Russians, according to a Ukrainian special forces officer I spoke with. He was worried that they would soon begin targeting recruits before they reached their destination. After Lviv, the recruits are sent to a camp near the Polish border for selection and training. Selection apparently follows no discernable process other than separating those that don’t have military experience from those that do. The former are put through a 4-week training course — the latter are given a weapon and sent to the front in ad-hoc units with a Ukrainian officer. Some candidates are inexplicably rejected while others – regarded as being eminently unsuitable by their peers, are retained. In any case, the process has some fatal flaws – no one becomes a competent soldier in just 4 weeks, and even experienced soldiers require assimilation training. Every war has its own dynamics which can be equally lethal to veterans and beginners if not properly understood.
In their first trial by fire earlier this month, the volunteers were put into a hasty defense north of Kyiv, as the Russians began their onslaught on the towns lying north of the city. After the initial volley of Ukrainian anti-tank missiles had stopped the attackers in their tracks, enemy soldiers spilled out of their armored fighting vehicles about a quarter-mile in front of the volunteers, and into a withering storm of fire that halted the assault. “Shoot the ones in black uniforms,” a Ukrainian platoon commander is said to have told his foreign charges. “They are Belarusians.” Ukrainians are particularly incensed (but not surprised) at the perfidious complicity of Belarusian autocrat Alexander Lukashenko in taking his stance as a sycophantic second to President Vladimir Putin. Sadly, as with Putin, it is Lukashenko’s soldiers who are paying the price.
Although the Legionnaires helped to halt the attack, their performance that day was uneven — an observation that led the Ukrainians to discharge the surviving members of the initial intake, without any ceremony or official notification. Worse was to come. An unknown number of new recruits were training at a camp near the border when, a strike by Tupolev bombers, carrying Kh 101 cruise missiles, destroyed the camp. The death toll is not yet clear, but Ukrainian officers have told me that it will likely be more than 100.
TOPSHOT – A couple of Ukrainian soldiers walks hand in hand amid Russian invasion of Ukraine in Kyiv on March 17, 2022, as Russian troops try to encircle the Ukrainian capital as part of their slow-moving offensive. (Photo by Sergei SUPINSKY / AFP) (Photo by SERGEI SUPINSKY/AFP via Getty Images)
With most of its initial intake now discharged, and many from subsequent intakes killed or wounded, the plan to stand up the Ukrainian Foreign Legion program is one part of the Ukrainian war effort that is definitely not going well.
“We should only take experienced combat veterans — that is the lesson that we are learning,” a Ukrainian general told Task & Purpose on condition of anonymity. “The others don’t know what they are getting themselves into – and when they find out, they want to go home. We need specialized skills – especially snipers.”
Since the well-publicized death of several senior Russian officers, snipers have become in this conflict what fighter pilots were to Britain in 1940. But snipers won’t win the war for Ukraine. “They need to know how to plan,” said one U.S. official here in the country, with long experience of working with the Ukrainian military. “So far they have been in the defense, but if they want to win ground back, they are going to have to come up with a good combined arms plan. That’s not a collective skill that comes after a couple of classes – and the Ukrainians lack experience in doing this sort of thing.” Fortunately, so do the Russians.
John was having none of this. “Yeah, well they gonna need someone to administer to them,” he insisted, before shouting again in frustration at the Poles. “Can’t wait to get out of this shitty country.” I wanted to remind him that the place where he was going was considerably shittier but thought it churlish to do so.
+++
Andrew Milburn retired from the Marine Corps as a colonel in 2019 after a 31-year career as an infantry and special operations officer. His last position in uniform was Deputy Commander of Special Operations Central (SOCCENT), and prior to that commanding officer of the Marine Raider Regiment and Combined Special Operations Task Force – Iraq. Since retiring, he has written a critically acclaimed memoir, When the Tempest Gathers, and has had articles published in a number of national publications. He is currently on assignment for Task & Purpose in Ukraine. Follow him on Twitter at @andymilburn8.
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18. Here’s an Idea: Pay Russian Pilots for Defecting
A good PSYOP lesson from the Korean War.
Here’s an Idea: Pay Russian Pilots for Defecting
Operation Moolah redux.
March 17, 2022, 11:36 PM
Russian Su-34 fighter jet near Moscow, Russia, August 30, 2015 (Mikhail Syritsa/Shutterstock)
Before the Korean War ended, the United States publicized Operation Moolah to the enemy: a $100,000 reward (equivalent to $1 million in 2022), and asylum, for the first North Korean pilot who defected and brought with him an intact MiG-15. We did this for two reasons: to get the technology of a superior fighter jet and to prove the Soviet Union was involved in the war.
Shortly after the war’s truce, on September 21, 1953, a MiG-15 suddenly landed at Kimpo Air Base in South Korea, piloted by 21-year-old Senior Lt. No Kum-Sok of the North Korean Air Force. The senior lieutenant got his $100,000.
Fast forward: Let the United States (and/or other countries) provide money to Ukraine to let Ukraine offer a financial reward for the defection of every Russian pilot who brings an intact fighter jet. For this effort, we’d be giving just money, no arms, no fighter jets, just money. The Russians couldn’t complain about us giving Ukraine money. It would be Ukraine who using it to incentivize defections. And no country would be shooting these Russian jet fighters out of the sky, but they’d be taken out of service and useless to Russia.
The particulars can be worked out: How big should the reward be? How would the offer be communicated to Russian pilots? To what airfields would Russian pilots be directed? Etc.
19. Ukraine will not halt US shift to Indo-Pacific
It must not.
Ukraine will not halt US shift to Indo-Pacific
Washington can be expected to strengthen regional defense and deterrence to prevent China from repeating Russia’s mistakeWashington can be expected to strengthen regional defense and deterrence to prevent China from repeating Russia’s mistake
There is some fear in Indo-Pacific capitals, and hope in Beijing, that the Russian invasion of Ukraine will force a reassessment of the US threat calculus and halt the shift of Washington’s strategic focus from Europe to Asia. That will not happen.
Events in Ukraine have demonstrated in many ways the centrality of China to strategic considerations around the globe. China will continue to be the center of US and Western concern.
The United States has called China “the pacing threat” of the 21st century. As Colin Kahl, undersecretary of defense for policy, explained, that means that “China is the only country that can pose a systemic challenge to the United States in the sense of challenging us, economically, technologically, politically and militarily.”
The war in Ukraine poses a more immediate threat, however, and some experts now insist that the West must adjust its thinking accordingly.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, for example, said Europe must accept the “new normal” imposed by the Russian invasion, and make a “longer-term adjustment” to build up its defense in Eastern Europe.
Andrea Kendall-Taylor, a former intelligence officer who worked on Russia and is now at CNAS, a US think tank, agrees, arguing that “the United States can’t simply return to its previous business of focusing predominantly on China.”
We’ve been here before. When George W Bush took office in 2001, his security team believed that US strategic focus needed to shift from Europe to Asia, amid mounting concerns about China’s intentions. The EP3 spy plane incident in April 2001 crystallized those anxieties.
A hijacked commercial plane crashes into the World Trade Center on September 11, 2001, in New York. Photo: AFP / Seth McAllister
But any transition ended after the September 11 terror attacks. The Bush administration deemed “rogue states” and terrorists to be the chief danger and Beijing quickly offered its support in that struggle.
If a pendulum was swinging from Europe to Asia, it became stuck over Afghanistan and the Middle East.
That won’t happen again. Europe is following Stoltenberg’s advice. European governments are boosting defense budgets, with Germany setting the pace with an eye-popping proposal for a 100 euro billion fund to upgrade its military and a pledge to adhere to the NATO goal of spending 2% of GDP on defense.
Denmark, Lithuania and Poland also said they will boost defense spending.
Finland and Sweden are mulling NATO membership. Regardless of their decisions, Europe has been awakened to a direct threat to its security and is responding. That effort will allow the US to continue its strategic readjustment.
While still capable of being a danger and a geopolitical spoiler, Russia is increasingly spent. Its military has been shattered by the invasion and its economy is in tatters. If sanctions are not lifted soon, it may take generations for the country to recover.
Europeans now recognize the dangers of relying on Russia for critical supplies and will hedge: Moscow’s levers of influence will be significantly reduced.
In Asia, the response is less full-throated. Blame the distance from the conflict in Europe, the limited role that Russia plays in this region, China’s more expansive role (especially when it comes to doing business), the readiness to value real, immediate gains over distant, possible costs or “banal” geostrategic factors like diplomatic support or weapons sales.
The absence of a multilateral institution that can muster a diplomatic or security consensus is another explanation. Failing a collective response, the US must act on its own, or with partners, to address any threat to the status quo in a region that it deems “vital” to its security and prosperity.
Meanwhile, the crisis has shone a light on China and either created or confirmed skepticism about Beijing’s role in the world. China has aligned itself closely with Russia and has become its principal diplomatic defender, while assiduously touting its neutrality.
Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin pose for a group photo during the G-20 summit in Osaka, Japan, on June 28, 2019. Photo: AFP via Getty / Dominique Jacovides
Beijing has denied reports that it will resupply the Russian military, but insists that their ties remain “rock solid” and that their friendship has “no limits.”
The Indo-Pacific Strategy, released last month, is crystal clear when it comes to the importance of the region for the United States: “American interests can only be advanced if we firmly anchor the United States in the Indo-Pacific and strengthen the region itself, alongside our closest allies and partners.”
Some strategists have been quick to draw straight lines from Ukraine to Taiwan; that may be premature as Beijing, too, is studying developments and its own conclusions may – or should – induce caution rather than boldness.
Nevertheless, the lesson the US is drawing from the Ukraine crisis is that perceptions of weakness invite attack. Expect deeper engagement from Washington and more concerted attempts to strengthen defense and deterrence to prevent any regional government from being tempted to repeat Russia’s mistake.
Brad Glosserman is deputy director of and visiting professor at the Center for Rule-Making Strategies at Tama University as well as senior adviser (nonresident) at Pacific Forum. He is the author of Peak Japan: The End of Great Ambitions (Georgetown University Press, 2019).
20. The shadow warriors deployed to kill Zelensky
I hope we have provided sufficient training and resources to President Zelensky's personal security detachment (PSD).
The shadow warriors deployed to kill Zelensky
Wagner Group mercenaries battle-hardened in Syria, Libya and Central African Republic and act as Putin’s de facto private army
By all accounts, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are proving to be a tougher opponent than the Kremlin anticipated. After three weeks of what President Vladimir Putin has termed a “special military operation”, Russia has not achieved any of its military or political goals.
As the West pumps weapons to the Ukrainian Army and local resistance fighters train up and dig in, Moscow will by now be resigned to the fact that its invasion could become a long war. That, in turn, raises the prospect that Russia will deploy battle-hardened mercenaries like those attached to the Wagner Group to fight and intensify the conflict.
Reports indicate the Wagner Group is trained at Russian Ministry of Defense installations and are widely considered to be an arms-length unit of Russia’s GRU military intelligence agency, similar to the US’s Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).
The Wagner Group is widely believed to be used by the Russian government to allow for plausible deniability for its involvement in certain global conflicts. Some have likened the Wagner Group to the controversial US private security firm Blackwater active in Iraq and established by ex-US Navy Seal Erik Prince.
Wagner Group mercenaries at an undisclosed location. Image: ssu.gov.ua
Wagner Group mercenaries have also fought in conflicts around the world including the civil wars in Libya, Syria, the Central African Republic (CAR), and Mali, invariably fighting on the side of forces aligned with Moscow’s interests. Though welcomed by the governments of Syria and the CAR, Wagner Group operatives have a reputation for ferocity and have been accused of war crimes in some areas.
Reports are now widely circulating that more than 400 Wagner Group mercenaries have been flown in from Africa and deployed to Kiev specifically to assassinate President Volodymyr Zelensky, whose global stature has risen meteorically since Moscow’s invasion through his social media and other appeals for Western aid and assistance.
News reports indicate that some 2,000-4,000 Wagner mercenaries arrived in Ukraine in January, weeks before the launch of Moscow’s February 24 invasion. Some Ukrainian experts have claimed that Wagner Group members are already active in military operations aimed at seizing the Ukrainian capital, Kiev.
The Times of London reported that when Ukrainian intelligence learned of the presence of the guns-for-hire in the capital, a curfew was imposed on Kiev soon after the invasion so that security forces could hunt down what they referred to as “saboteurs.”
Military strategists say the Kremlin would need to deploy much more than 4,000 mercenaries, even as advance scouts, to achieve its military objectives even just for Kiev. Those larger mercenary numbers could be forthcoming, however: Ukrainian sources claim that the Wagner Group has already started recruiting mercenaries in Russia.
The Wagner Group is believed to be financed largely by Yevgeny Prigozhin, a Russian businessman with close links to President Putin. With a penchant for the extreme, Prigozhin recommended on social media to send retired military specialists from Russia to the White House and Capitol soon after the January Capitol riot in Washington DC.
His trolling came three years after the United States’ military killed dozens of Wagner mercenaries and Syrian Arab Army troops in the Middle Eastern country.
Businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin shows then-Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin his school lunch factory outside St. Petersburg, Russia, on Sept. 20, 2010. Photo: AFP via Getty / Sputnik / Alexey Druzhinin
In May 2018, Wagner fighters reportedly assaulted a US and Syrian Democratic Forces position in Syria’s oil-rich Deir ez-Zor province, but they were later hammered by the American artillery, airstrikes, helicopters and even an AC-130 gunship.
Following the incident, Russian media was silent, even though it was the first direct battle between Washington’s and Moscow’s forces since the Vietnam War.
Wagner Group was later rebranded as “Liga” and it continues to recruit, train and send private military operatives to conflict zones around the world. In September 2019, Wagner Group forces were deployed to Mozambique to help the African country’s army combat the so-called Islamic State’s Central Africa Province’s (IS-CAP) insurgency in the northern Cabo Delgado province.
In July 2020, Belarusian law enforcement agencies detained 33 people who turned out to be mercenaries from Wagner Group. Minsk accused the mercenaries of trying to destabilize the country ahead of that August’s presidential election by organizing a Ukrainian-style Maidan revolution and overthrowing the country’s leader Alexander Lukashenko.
They were, however, released days after the election as Russia insisted that the mercenaries were only transiting via Belarus en route to Istanbul.
A United Nations report has shown that the Wagner Group deployed up to 1,200 fighters to Libya to back Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar and his Libyan National Army. Wagner Group fighters are also operating in CAR in backing government forces in a fight against rebels. CAR has reciprocally said it is ready to deploy fighters to Ukraine to help Russian forces in their “special military operation.”
While Moscow’s specific objectives for its invasion of Ukraine are not known, what is clear is that Russian forces have underperformed in the face of strong Ukrainian resistance. That means Putin will likely look to what many see as his private Wagner Group army and its battle-hardened mercenaries to lead key operations in the days and weeks ahead.
21. Why We Should Read Hannah Arendt Now
I think Ms. Applebaum has motivated me to pull out and dust off and reread my copy of Hannah Arendt's book.
Excerpt:
And yet the questions Arendt asks remain absolutely relevant today. She was fascinated by the passivity of so many people in the face of dictatorship, by the widespread willingness, even eagerness, to believe lies and propaganda—just consider the majority of Russian people today, unaware that there is even a war going on next door and prevented by law from calling it such. In the totalitarian world, trust has dissolved. The masses “believe everything and nothing, think that everything was possible and that nothing was true.” To explain this phenomenon, Arendt zeroes in on human psychology, especially the intersection between terror and loneliness. By destroying civic institutions, whether sports clubs or small businesses, totalitarian regimes kept people away from one another and prevented them from sharing creative or productive projects. By blanketing the public sphere with propaganda, they made people afraid to speak with one another. And when each person felt himself isolated from the rest, resistance became impossible. Politics in the broadest sense became impossible too: “Terror can rule absolutely only over men who are isolated against each other … Isolation may be the beginning of terror; it certainly is its most fertile ground; it always is its result.”
Reading that account now, it is impossible not to wonder whether the nature of modern work and information, the shift from “real life” to virtual life and the domination of public debate by algorithms that increase emotion, anger, and division, hasn’t created some of the same results. In a world where everyone is supposedly “connected,” loneliness and isolation once again are smothering activism, optimism, and the desire to participate in public life. In a world where “globalization” has supposedly made us all similar, a narcissistic dictator can still launch an unprovoked war on his neighbors. The 20th-century totalitarian model has not been banished; it can be brought back, at any place and at any time.
Arendt offers no easy answers. The Origins of Totalitarianism does not contain a set of policy prescriptions, or directions on how to fix things. Instead it offers proposals, experiments, different ways to think about the lure of autocracy and the seductive appeal of its proponents as we grapple with them in our own time.
Why We Should Read Hannah Arendt Now
The Origins of Totalitarianism has much to say about a world of rising authoritarianism.
So much of what we imagine to be new is old; so many of the seemingly novel illnesses that afflict modern society are really just resurgent cancers, diagnosed and described long ago. Autocrats have risen before; they have used mass violence before; they have broken the laws of war before. In 1950, in the preface she wrote to the first edition of The Origins of Totalitarianism, Hannah Arendt, knowing that what had just passed could repeat itself, described the scant half decade that had elapsed since the end of the Second World War as an era of great unease: “Never has our future been more unpredictable, never have we depended so much on political forces that cannot be trusted to follow the rules of common sense and self-interest—forces that look like sheer insanity, if judged by the standards of other centuries.”
The toxic nationalism and open racism of Nazi Germany, only recently defeated; the Soviet Union’s ongoing, cynical attacks on liberal values and what it called “bourgeois democracy”; the division of the world into warring camps; the large influx of refugees; the rise of new forms of broadcast media capable of pumping out disinformation and propaganda on a mass scale; the emergence of an uninterested, apathetic majority, easily placated with simple bromides and outright lies; and above all the phenomenon of totalitarianism, which she described as an “entirely new form of government”—all of these things led Arendt to believe that a darker era was about to begin.
She was wrong, or partly so. Although much of the world would remain, for the rest of the 20th century, in thrall to violent and aggressive dictatorships, in 1950 North America and Western Europe were in fact just at the beginning of an era of growth and prosperity that would carry them to new heights of wealth and power. The French would remember this era as Les Trente Glorieuses; the Italians would speak of the boom economico, the Germans of the Wirtschaftswunder. In this same era, liberal democracy, a political system that had failed spectacularly in 1930s Europe, finally flourished. So did international integration. The Council of Europe, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the eventual European Union—all of these institutions not only supported the liberal democracies but knit them together more tightly than ever before. The result was certainly not a utopia—by the 1970s, growth had slowed; unemployment and inflation soared—but it nevertheless seemed, at least to those who lived inside the secure Western bubble, that the forces of what Arendt had called “sheer insanity” had been kept at bay.
Now we live in a different era, one in which growth at those 1950s levels is impossible to imagine. Inequality has grown exponentially, creating huge divides between a tiny billionaire class and everyone else. International integration is failing; declining birth rates, combined with a wave of immigration from the Middle East and North Africa, have created an angry rise of nostalgia and xenophobia. Worse, some of the elements that made the postwar Western world so prosperous—some of the elements that Arendt’s pessimistic analysis missed—are fading away. The American security guarantee that underlies the stability of Europe and North America is more uncertain than it has ever been. America’s own democracy, which served as a role model for so many others, is challenged as it has not been in decades, including by those who no longer accept the results of American elections. At the same time, the world’s autocracies have now accumulated enough wealth and influence to challenge the liberal democracies, ideologically as well as economically. The leaders of China, Russia, Iran, Belarus, and Cuba often work together, supporting one another, drawing on kleptocratic resources—money, property, business influence—at a level Hitler or Stalin could never have imagined. Russia has defied the entire postwar European order by invading Ukraine.
Once again, we are living in a world that Arendt would recognize, a world in which it seems “as though mankind had divided itself between those who believe in human omnipotence (who think that everything is possible if one knows how to organize masses for it) and those for whom powerlessness has become the major experience of their lives”—a description that could almost perfectly describe Vladimir Putin on the one hand and Putin’s Russia on the other. The Origins of Totalitarianism forces us to ask not only why Arendt was too pessimistic, in 1950, but also whether some of her pessimism might be more warranted now. More to the point, it offers us a kind of dual methodology, two different ways of thinking about the phenomenon of autocracy.
Precisely because Arendt feared for the future, much of The Origins of Totalitarianism was in fact focused on an excavation of the past. Although not all of the research that lies at the heart of the book has held up to modern scholarship, the principle that led her down this path remains important: To grapple with a broad social trend, look at its history, try to find its origins, try to understand what happened when it last appeared, in another country or another century. To explain Nazi anti-Semitism, Arendt reached back not only to the history of the Jews in Germany but also to the history of European racism and imperialism, and to the evolution of the notion of the “rights of man”—which we now more commonly speak of as “human rights.” To have such rights, she observed, you must not only live in a state that can guarantee them; you must also qualify as one of that state’s citizens. The stateless, and those classified as noncitizens, or non-people, are assured of nothing. The only way they can be helped or made secure is through the existence of the state, of public order, and of the rule of law.
The last section of Origins is largely devoted to a somewhat different project: the close examination of the totalitarian states of her time, both Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union, and in particular an attempt to understand the sources of their power. Here her thinking is equally useful, though not, again, because everything she writes matches present circumstances. Many surveillance and control techniques are much subtler than they once were, involving facial-recognition cameras and spyware, not merely crude violence or paramilitary patrols in the street. Most modern autocracies do not have a “foreign policy openly directed toward world domination,” or at least not yet. Propaganda has also changed. The modern Russian leadership feels no need to constantly promote its own achievements around the world, for example; it is often satisfied with belittling and undermining the achievements of others.
And yet the questions Arendt asks remain absolutely relevant today. She was fascinated by the passivity of so many people in the face of dictatorship, by the widespread willingness, even eagerness, to believe lies and propaganda—just consider the majority of Russian people today, unaware that there is even a war going on next door and prevented by law from calling it such. In the totalitarian world, trust has dissolved. The masses “believe everything and nothing, think that everything was possible and that nothing was true.” To explain this phenomenon, Arendt zeroes in on human psychology, especially the intersection between terror and loneliness. By destroying civic institutions, whether sports clubs or small businesses, totalitarian regimes kept people away from one another and prevented them from sharing creative or productive projects. By blanketing the public sphere with propaganda, they made people afraid to speak with one another. And when each person felt himself isolated from the rest, resistance became impossible. Politics in the broadest sense became impossible too: “Terror can rule absolutely only over men who are isolated against each other … Isolation may be the beginning of terror; it certainly is its most fertile ground; it always is its result.”
Reading that account now, it is impossible not to wonder whether the nature of modern work and information, the shift from “real life” to virtual life and the domination of public debate by algorithms that increase emotion, anger, and division, hasn’t created some of the same results. In a world where everyone is supposedly “connected,” loneliness and isolation once again are smothering activism, optimism, and the desire to participate in public life. In a world where “globalization” has supposedly made us all similar, a narcissistic dictator can still launch an unprovoked war on his neighbors. The 20th-century totalitarian model has not been banished; it can be brought back, at any place and at any time.
Arendt offers no easy answers. The Origins of Totalitarianism does not contain a set of policy prescriptions, or directions on how to fix things. Instead it offers proposals, experiments, different ways to think about the lure of autocracy and the seductive appeal of its proponents as we grapple with them in our own time.
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V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
