Rose Report: Winter-Spring 2023 - Resilience in the face of a cooling economy

The Rose Report

Winter-Spring | 2023

Melting into spring

Resilience in a cooling economy

It's important to be able to read the signs in a changing economy. Retrospectively, it's easy to see the changes that have been coming. But those who can find and see the signs ahead of time often have more resiliency when the cycles shift, which they always do.

Resiliency is about watching and preparing for these shifts. It's positioning yourself for the future on the backside of the pandemic. Last summer, we predicted a cooling off of the economy, and in fall and winter we saw the effects of that, such as in the form of retailers' excess inventories.

Now, we are finding ourselves in a full-blown concern over the market. Housing markets are declining, and most economists, despite showing optimism throughout 2022, are now predicting a recession sometime in 2023-2024. Rising interest rates and geopolitical concerns impact the markets, consumer and employee behaviors.

How can we prepare?

We can boost our resiliency by watching the markets - and not just the stock market. Pay attention to the broader financial markets and real estate markets, including the growing vacancies in the office segment. Keep tabs on changing consumer trends and shifting demographics. One report I keep an eye out for each year is the Annual National Movers Study put out by United Van Lines. This offers great insight into how things may change, and the recent report bodes well for the Carolinas.

The Carolinas, as a destination for relocating residents and companies alike will weather the storm a lot better than other parts of the country, primarily because of the large shifts in population moving here. Our lower costs of living and robust job opportunities continue to draw newcomers, which will give our area strength even if the national economy falters.

-Kathleen

Community Involvement

We believe in personal development and in giving back to professional organizations through volunteer efforts. Kathleen Rose is honored to chair the External Affairs/Top Ten Issues committee for the Counselors of Real Estate and the Carolinas Trends Council for ULI this year.

Welcome our new Analyst, Max Bellile!

Max is a student at UNCC's Belk College of Business' Childress Klein Center for Real Estate, studying in the Master of Real Estate Program. He is working part-time as an analyst for the Rose consulting team as he finishes his degree.

News and Events

We are on YouTube! Rose Associates has started a YouTube channel, which will feature Kathleen Rose's new podcast, Luminaries. We will also post webinars, presentations and other content. Take a look HERE and be sure to Subscribe to receive notifications when new content is added.

Kathleen Rose enjoyed speaking to students in Daniel Wright's real estate development class at UNCC's Belk College of Business' Childress Klein Center for Real Estate. Daniel is the M.S. in Real Estate Program Director and Lecturer. The Topic was Mixed-Use Development.

Also available on YouTube: Around the Lake

Lake Norman Chamber of Commerce President and CEO William Russell and Rose Associates President and CEO, Kathleen Rose team up quarterly to interview leaders of local interest in their podcast Around the Lake. In this episode of Around the Lake, they interview Tim Perry, managing partner of North American Properties Atlanta, the firm behind Birkdale Reimagined. You can find the podcast on on the Lake Norman Chamber of Commerce - Bill Russell YouTube Channel.

Advisory Project Updates

Rose Associates' work continues on the following projects.

In Iredell County, Rose Associates teamed up with Clarion Associates to work on an updated Comprehensive Plan that will inform the 2030 Horizon Plan. Local conditions have changed significantly since the plan was adopted in 2009, particularly substantial growth in residential housing and industrial development.

In Monroe, NC, we are continuing our work on the Downtown Plan. We recently held a public workshop to include an engaging discussion with local artists.
In Clayton, NC, we continue work on the Downtown Plan. This fast growing community in Johnston County is within commuting distance to Raleigh. A public workshop is scheduled for the end of February, followed by draft report.

Rose Associates working on both these plans with strategic partner McAdams.

Rose Associates' work also continues on the corridor study for US 70 West Corridor, a 19-mile section in Orange & Alamance Counties. Working with VHB, the Rose team is considering transportation and real estate impacts from the region's continued growth.

Luminaries - Inspired Conversations

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Luminaries – Inspired conversation with real estate investment and economic development leaders

Kathleen Rose speaks with Arthur Samet, Chairman and CEO of Samet Corporation. They chatted about legacy, and about Samet's unique culture as one of the fastest-growing companies in the Southeast. Listen to the conversation on the Rose Associates YouTube channel.

Lake Norman Commercial Real Estate Updates

Rose Associates' commercial brokerage division continues to work with the local franchisee for Whit's Frozen Custard as the exclusive tenant representative. We're visiting sites in the Charlotte region along the I-77 corridor. Let us know if you'd like a Whit's in your project or community!

We also recently assisted The Crazy Pig with their expansion into Elkin. As tenant representative we assisted in a successful lease negotiation for a new site in downtown Elkin, NC in the former space of the famous Royall''s Drug store.

Need assistance in evaluating, leasing or selling your assets? contact Daniel Bellot at (704) 896-0094 or by email.

Commercial Brokerage Services:

Investments (Buy/Sell)
Leasing
Site Selection/Entitlements
Construction/Tenant Upfit