Quotes of the Day:
“In this sense, it must be possible to face and understand the outrageous fact that so small (and, in world politics, so unimportant) a phenomenon as the Jewish question and antisemitism could become the catalytic agent for first, the Nazi movement, then a world war, and finally the establishment of death factories. Or, the grotesque disparity between cause and effect which introduced the era of imperialism, when economic difficulties led, in a few decades, to a profound transformation of political conditions all over the world. Or, the curious contradiction between the totalitarian movements’ avowed cynical “realism” and their conspicuous disdain of the whole texture of reality. Or, the irritating incompatibility between the actual power-of modern man (greater than ever before, great to the point where he might challenge the very existence of his own universe) and the impotence of modern men to live in, and understand the sense of, a world which their own strength has established.”
— The Origins Of Totalitarianism (Harvest Book Book 244) by Hannah Arendt
https://a.co/7Ys57Ey
"We who lived in concentration camps can remember the men who walked through the huts comforting others, giving away their last piece of bread."
- Viktor E. Frankl
"Wisdom and penetration are the fruit of experience, not the lessons of retirement and leisure. Great necessities call out great virtues."
- Abigail Adams
1. North Korea Test-Fires Possible Intercontinental Ballistic Missile
2. N. Korea fires apparent ICBM toward East Sea
3. Live Updates: North Korea Launches New ICBM
4. North Korea launches long range ballistic missile capable of reaching U.S., Japan and South Korea say
5. Dialing up pressure, North Korea tests long-range missile
6. N. Korea to hold major festivals for late founding leader's birth anniversary
7. Expanding communication, cooperation among countries key to security in NE Asia: experts
8. North Korea’s Nuclear Opportunism
9. Yoon Has No Time to Waste Time Fighting His Predecessor
10. Fate of North Korean Refugees in China Presents an Historic Opportunity for Moon
11. North Korea’s Cabinet orders tough crackdown on foreign electronic products sold in markets
12.Despite mid-air explosion of missile, Kim Jong Un expresses encouragement rather than rebuke
13. Yoon makes unusual move as President-elect
14. Moon lashes out after North tests possible ICBM
15. New administration's North approach to be based on 'mutual reciprocity'
1. North Korea Test-Fires Possible Intercontinental Ballistic Missile
Now is not the time to go wobbly. Understand Kim's strategy. Do not give in to his demands even as the calls for concessions come.
Nice timing with the NATO meeting today and Putin's War.Kim says "look at me" – "don't forget me." The Kim family regime is a spoiler in strategic competition.
Kim is demonstrating his real hostile policy.
Let me reprise my recent comments and articles:
How To Prepare: North Korea Could Soon Test An ICBM Or Nuclear Weapon
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/03/how-to-prepare-north-korea-could-soon-test-an-icbm-or-nuclear-weapon/
North Korea’s Ballistic Missile Test: A 6 Step Strategy To Respond
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/01/north-koreas-ballistic-missile-test-a-6-step-strategy-to-respond/
As a baseline please refer to our monograph here: Maximum Pressure 2.0: A Plan B for North Korea HERE
Maximum Pressure 2.0: A Plan B for North Korea By Bradley Bowman and David Maxwell
Aggressive Diplomacy By Mathew Ha, David Maxwell, and Bradley Bowman
Military Deterrence and Readiness By David Maxwell, Bradley Bowman, and Mathew Ha
The Cyber Element The Cyber Element By Mathew Ha and Annie Fixler
U.S. Sanctions Against North Korea By David Asher and Eric Lorber
Information and Influence Activities By David Maxwell and Mathew Ha
A number of areas on which we need to focus:
First is influence operations. Information is an existential threat to the regime. This is how we pressure the elite, the military, and separate the regime from the elite and the Korean people in the north. This is because Kim Jong-un fears the Korean people more than he fears the ROK and US military threat and more than he fears sanctions. We have opportunity to now embark on a comprehensive information and influence activities campaign with the election of President-elect Yoon. He is likely to undo the ROK moratorium on (and laws against) information transmission into north Korea. It is time to stop paying lip service to information and develop a true influence strategy to support ROk and US national interests on the Korean peninsula.
We need to not only go against the regime's "all purpose sword" (cyber) but aggressively employ cyber capabilities to hinder missile and nuclear develop, erode the regime's ability to use cyber enabled economic warfare and illicit cyber activities to continue to fund the regime's royal court economy, and to support information and influence activities.
We also need to reinvigorate the Proliferation Security Initiative and actually conduct interdicting operations against north Korea shipping that is proliferating weapons to conflict zones around the world.
We also need to prevent the ship to ship transfer of sanctioned goods (primarily coal and oil) in international waters that support the regime's sanctions evasion activities.
And then there is readiness. We need to take readiness exercises off the negotiating table. They cannot be used as a bargaining chip. We must understand that Kim does not view cancelling exercises as a concession to his security need. he wants exercises cancelled for two reasons: Tor drive a wedge in the ROK/US alliance and to weaken military readiness, parimarly US military readiness to make the stationing of US troops on the peninsula untenable (do not be duped by Kim Jong-un's words to the former Secretary of State that he says the US troop presence protects Korea from China and therefore he does not want their removal - this is regime political warfare).
The bottom line is a new strategy must be built on deterrence, defense, denuclearization, and resolution of the "Korea question" (para 60 of the Armistice Agreement) by employing a superior form of political warfare. It should consist of 5 lines of effort: comprehensive diplomacy, resolute alliance military strength, pressure through enforced sanctions, cyber defense and offensive operations and information and influence activities to target the regime elite , the second-tier leadership, and the population to undermine the legitimacy of the regime and separate the Kim family regime from the elite and the 2d tier leadership as well as to prepare the population for unification.
As part of this strategy the Alliance must take a human rights upfront approach because human rights are not only a moral imperative, they are a national security issue. Kim Jong-un denies the human rights of the Korean people living in the north so that he can remain in power. Human rights cannot be sacrificed for the pursuit of denuclearization negotiations. We should also remember that when we talk about the north’s nuclear program it reinforces regime legitimacy. However, we expose human rights abuses and crimes against humanity and inform the Korean people in the north about their basic human rights it is an existential threat to the regime.
A political strategy alone will not defeat the Kim family regime's political warfare strategy. We need a superior form of political warfare.
A wise Korea hand once said to me that just about everything that could be tried with north Korea has been tried and all we can do is keep repackaging previous actions in new ways to try to achieve some kind of progress.
But we need to thoroughly assess the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime. and then develop a new strategy that will result in a new acceptable, durable political arrangement that will protect, serve, and advance US and ROK/US alliance interests.
A key initial effort of the Biden administration with the election of Yoon should be a thorough review of alliance strategies with a focus on assessing the fundamental assumptions upon which ROK and US policies and strategies are based. The Moon Administration has been laboring under the erroneous assumption that Kim Jong-un supports President Moon’s vision of peace and reconciliation and that there can be north-South engagement on reciprocal terms. A thorough analysis and understanding of the Kim family regime will reveal the Kim family regimes’ strategy is to use political warfare to subvert the South Korea nation and when conditions are right to use force to unify the peninsula under northern rule. Basing policy and strategy on the Moon administration’s assumptions is the path to failure on the Korean peninsula. Biden and Yoon have an opportunity to get on the right path together.
We need to return to fundamentals and answer these questions:
1. What do we want to achieve in Korea?
2. What is the acceptable durable political arrangement that will protect, serve, and advance US and ROK/US Alliance interests on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia?
3. Who does Kim fear more: The US or the Korean people in the north? (Note it is the Korean people armed with information knowledge of life in South Korea)
4. Do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the seven decades old strategy of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State in order to ensure the survival of the mafia like crime family cult known as Kim family regime?
5. In support of that strategy do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the objective to split the ROK/US Alliance and get US forces off the peninsula? Has KJU given up his divide to conquer strategy - divide the alliance to conquer the ROK?
The answers to these questions should guide us to the strategy to solve the "Korea question" (para 60 of the Armistice) and lead to the only acceptable durable political arrangement: A secure, stable, economically vibrant, non-nuclear Korean peninsula unified under a liberal constitutional form of government with respect for individual liberty, the rule of law, and human rights, determined by the Korean people. In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK)
Again, there is no silver bullet to the north Korea problem. This is why we need to focus on the long-term solution to the security and prosperity challenges on the Korean peninsula. That is to focus on resolving the Korean question, "the unnatural division of the peninsula.” Solve that and the nuclear issues and the human rights abuses and crimes against humanity will be fixed. The question to ask is not what worked and what did not, but whether our action advanced our interests and moved us closer to the acceptable, durable political arrangement that will protect, serve, and advance US and ROK/US alliance interests?
We should never forget these two points:
1. The root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the mafia- like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.
2. The only way we are going to see an end to the nuclear program and military threats as well as the human rights abuses and crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people living in the north by the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime is through achievement of unification and the establishment of a United Republic of Korea that is secure and stable, non-nuclear, economically vibrant, and unified under a liberal constitutional form of government based on individual liberty, rule of law, and human rights as determined by the Korean people. In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK).
North Korea Test-Fires Possible Intercontinental Ballistic Missile
Flight data suggest the missile flew higher and longer than ICBM test in November 2017
in Tokyo
Updated Mar. 24, 2022 5:07 am ET
North Korea launched what appeared to be a long-range ballistic missile on Thursday, Tokyo and Seoul officials said, in what would be the Kim Jong Un regime’s most significant weapons test in more than four years.
Initial flight data suggested the missile had flown higher and longer than North Korea’s intercontinental ballistic missile test in November 2017—a launch that demonstrated that Pyongyang, for the first time, had the capability to strike the U.S. mainland.
It flew for about 71 minutes, hitting an altitude of more than 3,700 miles and traveling more than 680 miles, Japan’s Defense Ministry said. “It is conceivable that it was an ICBM-class ballistic missile,” Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi said. The Thursday test “greatly exceeded” that of the ICBM launch four years ago, he added.
A South Korean television report on North Korea's missile test.
PHOTO: YONHAP/SHUTTERSTOCK
South Korea’s military believes the launch may have been a long-range ballistic missile that could be North Korea’s next-generation Hwasong-17 ICBM, local media reported.
Prior to Thursday, North Korea hadn’t conducted a full-range ICBM launch or nuclear test in more than four years. Mr. Kim had issued a self-imposed moratorium on such major provocations as Pyongyang shifted to diplomacy. But two nuclear summits with then-President Donald Trump failed to deliver a denuclearization deal.
In an emergency meeting with National Security Council officials, South Korean President Moon Jae-in condemned the latest launch and said Mr. Kim had broken his promise.
Pyongyang had conducted 10 other missile tests this year—more than in all of 2021. Two of its more recent launches featured parts of North Korea’s next-generation ICBM system, U.S., South Korean and Japanese officials have said. The Kim regime has described that activity as being related to its continuing development of a military reconnaissance satellite.
A North Korean missile test last week failed, as the projectile exploded shortly after being launched from the outskirts of Pyongyang, the South Korean military said. The Kim regime also test-fired multiple rounds of artillery over the weekend.
The artillery tests and the unsuccessful launch weren’t mentioned by North Korean state media, which often publicizes successful tests.
North Korea’s Expanding Missile Arsenal Unpacked
North Korea’s Expanding Missile Arsenal Unpacked
Play video: North Korea’s Expanding Missile Arsenal Unpacked
From railway-launched missiles to hypersonic ones, North Korea has been displaying new weapons alongside its nuclear bombs and submarines. WSJ takes a look at Pyongyang’s growing arsenal to see what message it sends to the world. Composite: Diana Chan
2. N. Korea fires apparent ICBM toward East Sea
Excerpts:
The North appears to have launched the projectile at a lofted angle, the JCS said.
The Pyongyang airfield is where the North is presumed to have tested the Hwasong-17 ICBM on Feb. 27 and March 5.
Dubbed a "monster" missile for its size, the new ICBM is thought to carry multiple warheads and have a range exceeding 13,000 km.
The North's latest launch came four days after it fired four artillery shots into the Yellow Sea, apparently using multiple rocket launchers, from Sukchon, north of Pyongyang.
Last week, the North unsuccessfully fired an apparent long-range rocket system.
In January, Pyongyang made a veiled threat to lift its voluntary moratorium on strategic weapons tests that it declared in April 2018 amid nuclear diplomacy with Seoul and Washington.
(2nd LD) N. Korea fires apparent ICBM toward East Sea | Yonhap News Agency
(ATTN: UPDATES throughout with military's explanation)
By Song Sang-ho
SEOUL, March 24 (Yonhap) -- North Korea fired what seems to be a long-range missile toward the East Sea on Thursday, South Korea's military said.
Pyongyang's show of force, the 12th this year, effectively means an end to its self-imposed moratorium on nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) testing.
The Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said that it detected the launch from the Sunan airfield in Pyongyang at 2:34 p.m. and the missile flew some 1,080 kilometers at a top altitude of over 6,200 km.
The North appears to have launched the projectile at a lofted angle, the JCS said.
The Pyongyang airfield is where the North is presumed to have tested the Hwasong-17 ICBM on Feb. 27 and March 5.
Dubbed a "monster" missile for its size, the new ICBM is thought to carry multiple warheads and have a range exceeding 13,000 km.
The North's latest launch came four days after it fired four artillery shots into the Yellow Sea, apparently using multiple rocket launchers, from Sukchon, north of Pyongyang.
Last week, the North unsuccessfully fired an apparent long-range rocket system.
In January, Pyongyang made a veiled threat to lift its voluntary moratorium on strategic weapons tests that it declared in April 2018 amid nuclear diplomacy with Seoul and Washington.
sshluck@yna.co.kr
(END)
3. Live Updates: North Korea Launches New ICBM
Excerpts:
North Korea conducted its last ICBM test in November 2017, after which it claimed that its nuclear-tipped ICBM could strike any part of the continental United States. Earlier that year, it tested what it called a thermonuclear bomb in its sixth underground nuclear test. Since his diplomacy with Mr. Trump ended in 2019 without any agreement on ending sanctions or eliminating the North’s nuclear arsenal, Mr. Kim has vowed to build more diverse and powerful nuclear missiles.
North Korea is the first United States adversary since the Cold War to test both an ICBM and an alleged hydrogen bomb, according to Vipin Narang, an expert on nuclear proliferation at MIT. The launch on Thursday was expected to invite swift condemnation from Washington and its allies. But given their tensions with the United States, it was unclear whether Russia and China would agree to impose more U.N. Security Council penalties on North Korea.
Live Updates: North Korea Launches New ICBM
News coverage in Seoul on Thursday, after North Korea carried out its latest missile launch. Credit...Ahn Young-Joon/Associated Press
SEOUL — North Korea on Thursday launched its first intercontinental ballistic missile since 2017, dramatically escalating tensions with the Biden administration at a moment when the world has been gripped by the devastation of war in Ukraine.
The missile flew for 71 minutes and landed in Japanese waters, according to Makoto Oniki, Japan’s deputy defense minister, who described the missile as a new kind of ICBM.
The launch was North Korea’s boldest weapons test in years and marked the end of the self-imposed moratorium on nuclear and ICBM tests that the country’s leader, Kim Jong-un, announced before he embarked on diplomacy with President Donald J. Trump in 2018.
North Korea conducted its last ICBM test in November 2017, after which it claimed that its nuclear-tipped ICBM could strike any part of the continental United States. Earlier that year, it tested what it called a thermonuclear bomb in its sixth underground nuclear test. Since his diplomacy with Mr. Trump ended in 2019 without any agreement on ending sanctions or eliminating the North’s nuclear arsenal, Mr. Kim has vowed to build more diverse and powerful nuclear missiles.
North Korea is the first United States adversary since the Cold War to test both an ICBM and an alleged hydrogen bomb, according to Vipin Narang, an expert on nuclear proliferation at MIT. The launch on Thursday was expected to invite swift condemnation from Washington and its allies. But given their tensions with the United States, it was unclear whether Russia and China would agree to impose more U.N. Security Council penalties on North Korea.
After North Korea’s nuclear test and three ICBM tests in 2017, the United States, China and Russia, all of which hold veto power in the Security Council, set aside their differences to impose devastating sanctions, agreeing to ban all U.N. member countries from importing any of North Korea’s key exports, such as coal, iron ore, fisheries and textiles. North Korea was also banned from importing more than four million barrels of crude oil for civilian purposes a year.
Its annual import of refined petroleum was capped at a half million barrels, the council said in a resolution adopted in December 2017. In that same resolution, the Security Council decided that, were North Korea to conduct more nuclear or ICBM tests, it would “take action to restrict further” the export of petroleum to the already heavily sanctioned country.
—
4. North Korea launches long range ballistic missile capable of reaching U.S., Japan and South Korea say
"Draconian sanctions?"
As many of us have long argued. Sanctions, while necessary, are not enough. We need a comprehensive strategy.
Excerpt:
The United Nations Security Council slapped a set of draconian sanctions on North Korea following the spate of nuclear and missile tests in by the regime 2017. Thursday’s launch comes about two weeks after the U.S. Treasury Department rolled out new sanctions against North Korea, following signs of the country’s preparations for an ICBM tests.
North Korea launches long range ballistic missile capable of reaching U.S., Japan and South Korea say
By Min Joo Kim, Michelle Ye Hee Lee and Julia Mio Inuma
Today at 3:42 a.m. EDT|Updated today at 3:56 a.m. EDT
TOKYO — North Korea fired a suspected intercontinental ballistic missile Thursday, Japanese and South Korean officials said, which traveled a distance indicating it could reach the U.S. mainland in Pyongyang’s most powerful test since 2017.
The test is a highly provocative action that is considered a “red line.” Makoto Oniki, Japan’s deputy defense minister, said the missile is believed to be a new type of ICBM because of its lofted height.
South Korea’s National Security Council confirmed the launch was an ICBM test. In a statement, President Moon Jae-in said Kim Jong Un “broke the moratorium on the ICBM that he promised to the international community, causing a serious threat to the Korean Peninsula, the surrounding region and the international community.”
The Japanese Coast Guard said the ballistic missile landed within Japan’s exclusive economic zone near the coast of Aomori, in northern Japan.
The United States and South Korea have issued warnings about North Korea’s program to develop ICBMs. Authorities of the two allies said North Korea launched on Feb. 26 and March 4 parts of a new ICBM system, dubbed the Hwasong-17. During the tests, the system was not launched at its full range or capability, officials in Seoul and Washington said.
Pyongyang did not specify the types of rockets used in those tests, and said the launches were for developing a spy satellite system.
The Hwasong-17 ICBM system, which is believed to be the world’s largest mobile ICBM, was unveiled at a Worker’s Party of Korea military parade in 2020. Analysts said it appears larger in size than the Hwasong-15, which North Korea tested in November 2017 and is believed to have a range that could strike all of the U.S. mainland.
It was not immediately clear whether Thursday’s launch involved the new Hwasong-17 system.
Military tensions have been mounting on the Korean Peninsula amid an uptick in the country’s weapons testing activity since the beginning of the year. Thursday’s launch comes just eight days after a suspected ballistic missile fired from a Pyongyang airport exploded midair.
South Korea, meanwhile, plans to conduct its own test of a solid-fuel space rocket this month, in line with its plans to develop military satellites to monitor North Korea. In April, there will also be joint U.S.-South Korean military exercises, which North Korea views as “hostile.”
The ICBM launch comes as nuclear negotiations between North Korea and the United States remain deadlocked since a summit meeting between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and former U.S. president Donald Trump collapsed over sanctions relief.
Moon, who came into office in 2017 promising to pursue peace with North Korea, made efforts to restart the stalled nuclear talks but the Kim regime gave him the cold shoulder. When his term ends in May, Moon will be replaced by Yoon Suk-yeol, a conservative calling for a tougher stance against North Korea.
In 2018, Kim unilaterally declared a moratorium on nuclear and long-range missile tests, while starting a flurry of diplomacy involving summit meetings with leaders of South Korea and the United States.
The United Nations Security Council slapped a set of draconian sanctions on North Korea following the spate of nuclear and missile tests in by the regime 2017. Thursday’s launch comes about two weeks after the U.S. Treasury Department rolled out new sanctions against North Korea, following signs of the country’s preparations for an ICBM tests.
Kim reported from Seoul.
5. Dialing up pressure, North Korea tests long-range missile
Yep. Dialing up pressure. The headline gets it right. Kim is trying to pressure the Biden administrations in making concessions and lifting sanctions. Do not give in.
Kim must learn that he has miscalculated. Perhaps the name of our new north Korea policy should be titled and addressed directly to Kim: "You can't always get what you want." (and if you keep acting out you will never get what you need).
Dialing up pressure, North Korea tests long-range missile
AP · by KIM TONG-HYUNG and MARI YAMAGUCHI · March 24, 2022
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — North Korea test-fired possibly its biggest-yet intercontinental ballistic missile toward the sea Thursday, according to its neighbors, raising the ante in a pressure campaign aimed at forcing the United States and other rivals to accept it as a nuclear power and remove crippling sanctions.
The launch, which extended North Korea’s barrage of weapons tests this year, came after the U.S. and South Korean militaries said the country was preparing a flight of a new large ICBM it first unveiled in October 2020.
South Korea’s military responded with live-fire drills of its own missiles launched from land vehicles, a ship and aircraft.
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It said it confirmed readiness to execute precision strikes against North Korea’s missile launch points as well as its command and support facilities. The South’s reaction underscored a resumption of inter-Korean tensions as nuclear negotiations remain frozen.
South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff and Defense Ministry said the ICBM missile fired from the Sunan area near capital Pyongyang traveled 1,080 kilometers (671 miles) while reaching a maximum altitude of over 6,200 kilometers (3,852 miles). This indicated the missile was fired on a higher-than-usual angle to avoid reaching the territorial waters of Japan.
Japan’s Deputy Defense Minister Makoto Oniki provided similar flight details and said they suggested a new type of ICBM. After arriving in Belgium for the Group of Seven summit meetings, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida told reporters the missile possibly landed near Japanese territorial waters off the northern island of Hokkaido.
“It’s an unforgivable recklessness. We resolutely condemn the act,” Kishida said.
Tokyo’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno said the missile flew for 71 minutes and that Japan may search for debris inside its exclusive economic zone to analyze the North’s weapons technology. Japan’s coast guard issued a warning to vessels in nearby waters, but there were no immediate reports of damage to boats or aircraft.
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South Korean President Moon Jae-in called an emergency National Security Council meeting where he criticized North Korean leader Kim Jong Un for breaking a self-imposed moratorium on ICBM tests and posing a “serious threat” to the region and the broader international community. Moon instructed officials to pursue “all possible response measures” based on its alliance with the United States and cooperation with other international partners, his office said. Following a highly provocative streak in nuclear explosive and ICBM tests in 2017, Kim unilaterally suspended such testing in 2018 ahead of his first meeting with then-U.S. President Donald Trump.
North Korea’s slew of weapons tests reflects a determination to cement its status as a nuclear power and wrest badly needed economic concessions from Washington and others from a position of strength, analysts say.
Kim may also feel a need to trumpet his military accomplishments to his domestic audience and drum up loyalty as he grapples with a broken economy worsened by pandemic border closures.
“Despite economic challenges and technical setbacks, the Kim regime is determined to advance its missile capabilities,” said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Seoul’s Ewha Womans University. “It would be a mistake for international policymakers to think the North Korean missile threat can be put on the back burner while the world deals with the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”
The Biden administration’s passive handling of North Korea so far, while it focuses on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and an intensifying rivalry with China, is allowing more room for the North to dial up its testing activity, some experts say. The administration’s actions on North Korea have so far been limited to largely symbolic sanctions imposed over its recent tests and offers of open-ended talks that were quickly turned down by Pyongyang’s leadership.
There are views in Seoul that Washington is slipping back to the Obama administration’s “strategic patience” policy of ignoring North Korea until it demonstrates seriousness about denuclearization, although that approach was criticized for neglecting a gathering nuclear threat.
It was North Korea’s 12th round of weapons launches this year and came after it fired suspected artillery pieces into the sea on Sunday.
The North has also tested a variety of new missiles, including a purported hypersonic weapon and its first launch since 2017 of an intermediate range missile with a potential of reaching Guam, a key U.S. military hub in the Pacific.
It also conducted two medium-range tests in recent weeks from Sunan, home to the country’s main airport, that the U.S. and South Korean militaries assessed to have involved components of the North’s largest ICBM. The allies had said the missile, which the North calls Hwasong-17, could be tested at full range soon.
Those tests followed another launch from Sunan last week. But South Korea’s military said the missile likely exploded shortly after liftoff. Details of the explosion and the possibility of civilian damage remain unknown.
North Korea’s official media insisted that the two successful tests were aimed at developing cameras and other systems for a spy satellite. Analysts say the North is clearly attempting to simultaneously resume ICBM testing and acquire some level of space-based reconnaissance capability under the pretense of a space launch to reduce international backlash to those moves.
The launch may possibly come around a major political anniversary in April, the birthday of state founder Kim Il Sung, the late grandfather of current leader Kim.
The North’s previous ICBMs demonstrated potential range to reach the American homeland during three flight tests in 2017. Its development of the larger Hwasong-17, which was first revealed in a military parade in October 2020, possibly indicates an aim to arm it with multiple warheads to overwhelm missile defenses, experts say.
The North last flight-tested an ICBM in November 2017, when the Hwasong-15 flew about 1,000 kilometers (600 miles) for about 50 minutes at a maximum altitude of 4,000 kilometers (2,400 miles). It wasn’t immediately clear whether the missile from the latest test was the Hwasong-17.
Denuclearization talks with the U.S. have been stalled since 2019, when the Americans rejected North Korea’s demand for a major release of crippling U.S.-led sanctions in exchange for a partial surrender of its nuclear capabilities.
Kim presided over a ruling Workers’ Party meeting on Jan. 19, where Politburo members issued a veiled threat to end his ICBM moratorium, citing U.S. hostility. Eleven days later, the North conducted its first test since 2017 of an intermediate range missile, signaling a resumption of major weapons testing.
South Korea’s military has also detected signs that North Korea was possibly restoring some of the tunnels at its nuclear testing ground that were detonated in May 2018, weeks ahead of Kim’s first meeting with Trump. The military didn’t say whether it believes the North was restoring the site to resume nuclear tests.
___ Yamaguchi reported from Tokyo.
AP · by KIM TONG-HYUNG and MARI YAMAGUCHI · March 24, 2022
6. N. Korea to hold major festivals for late founding leader's birth anniversary
And what will we get for Kim Il-sung's birthday? Another test? A nuclear test?
(2nd LD) N. Korea to hold major festivals for late founding leader's birth anniversary | Yonhap News Agency
(ATTN: ADDS unification ministry official's comments in paras 9-10)
By Yi Won-ju
SEOUL, March 24 (Yonhap) -- North Korea plans to hold various large-scale celebratory events, both online and offline, on the occasion of the 110th birth anniversary of its late founding leader next month, according to its state media Thursday.
The North will hold a major spring festival in Pyongyang with magic shows and performances by art troupes around mid-April to commemorate Kim Il-sung, the grandfather of current leader Kim Jong-un, on April 15, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported.
"(The festival) will inspire us on our powerful march and help make this meaningful year a revolutionary year of celebrations," the North's main newspaper, Rodong Sinmun, also said.
Pyongyang will stage another major international art festival online this year amid COVID-19 concerns. The April Spring Friendship Art Festival, which started in 1982, is a biennial event that invites art troupes from other countries to celebrate the late founder's birthday.
The birth anniversary, referred to in the North as the Day of the Sun, is one of the country's biggest national holidays. The North tends to mark every fifth and 10th anniversary with large-scale events, including military parades.
Citing commercial satellite imagery from Planet Labs, Radio Free Asia (RFA) said the North seems to be continuing preparations for a massive military parade.
The images show around 600 to 650 trucks have been mobilized at the Mirim airport in Pyongyang on Monday, more than four times the number of trucks seen last month, the Washington-based news outlet reported Wednesday (local time).
The North is estimated to have mobilized more than 7,500 troops, gearing up for the parade, it added.
The South Korean government is closely monitoring the North's moves in view of what Pyongyang usually did for previous key anniversaries, an official said.
"We are keeping a close eye (on it), with the possibility of a military parade high, considering the overall situation, including the North's past activities (on similar occasions) and what Pyongyang has announced, as well as signs detected by our military," the unification ministry official told reporters on the customary condition of anonymity.
The North also appears to be planning major cultural events this year in an apparent effort to strengthen internal unity amid growing economic pressure from the fallout of global sanctions and the COVID-19 pandemic.
In 2020, the North canceled almost all major celebrations for the birth anniversary amid the pandemic.
julesyi@yna.co.kr
(END)
7. Expanding communication, cooperation among countries key to security in NE Asia: experts
There can be no Track II talks with north Korea. At best there can be track 1.5. Why? Because every Korean from the north will be a member of the government (and the party). And they will only present party approved talking points.
Expanding communication, cooperation among countries key to security in NE Asia: experts | Yonhap News Agency
By Byun Duk-kun
WASHINGTON, March 23 (Yonhap) -- Expanding and maintaining channels of high-level dialogue between countries, especially in times of crises, is a key to ensuring security in the Northeast Asian region, including the Korean Peninsula, a transnational group of experts and leaders said Wednesday.
They also stressed the importance of promoting cooperation between the countries in areas such as disaster relief to build mutual trust.
"Numerous crisis mechanisms have been established in Northeast Asia over the past 25 years, including more than 30 hotlines between North and South Korea, but these are often cut when they are needed most, during periods of heightened tension," they said in a set of policy recommendations published by the Seoul-based Asia-Pacific Leadership Network for Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament.
"States in the region should make a joint commitment to keep political and military communication channels open at all times: to make effective use of those that already exist and to establish new ones to help prevent misunderstandings and manage strategic competition," said the list, signed by 36 officials and experts from countries including South Korea, Japan, China and Russia.
North Korea often cuts off its direct communication lines with South Korea to show its anger or dismay at Seoul.
Most recently, Pyongyang had restored its communication hotlines with Seoul in July after a 13-month suspension, only to cut them off again a few days later as a protest against South Korea's regular joint military drills with the United States.
The experts recommended the countries work together on disaster relief that they said could help improve their disaster resilience but also their crisis communication.
"This type of cooperation would also help cultivate a sense of regionalism and common security," they said.
They also called for efforts to expand what they called a "track 2" security dialogue.
"Convene informal discussions among security scholars and policy experts in Northeast Asian capitals on how to reduce the most pressing risks associated with arms racing and other competitive regional security dynamics. This forum could explore the relationship between regional and global security mechanisms and how to bolster them," said the experts.
They also highlighted the need for a "track 1.5 dialogue" designed specifically to address the security issue on the Korean Peninsula, "which could revive discussions that took place during the Six Party Talks process in a more informal, less politically-charged setting."
The recommendations come amid increasing tensions in the Northeast Asian region, partly caused by the growing rivalry between China and the U.S.
North Korea is also believed to be preparing to resume its nuclear and long-range ballistic missile testing following its 10 rounds of missile tests so far this year.
The North has maintained a self-imposed moratorium on nuclear and long-range missile tests since late 2017 but said in January it may restart all temporarily-suspended activities.
Seoul and Washington have repeatedly urged Pyongyang to engage in dialogue, but the North continues to ignore their overtures.
Denuclearization talks with North Korea have stalled since late 2019.
bdk@yna.co.kr
(END)
8. North Korea’s Nuclear Opportunism
A timely article from Dr. Terry this morning. A "cold war strategy" for dealing with north Korea?
Excerpts:
Although the West should remain resolute in the face of North Korean provocations, Seoul and Washington should not be afraid to talk with Pyongyang. If the North does decide to return to negotiations, the United States should test the waters to see if it would be possible to conclude an interim deal that would freeze the North Korean nuclear program in a verifiable manner in return for partial sanctions relief from the United States. But the deal would need to be more equitable than North Korea’s demand at the 2019 Hanoi summit for most of the sanctions to be lifted in return for only a partial nuclear shutdown. An interim deal might be unrealistic because the Kim regime has shown no indication that it would accept the kind of intrusive inspections to which Iran agreed in 2015. But it is even less realistic to imagine that a grand bargain can be struck that would result in North Korea’s complete denuclearization. If nothing else, a willingness to engage in such limited negotiations will enable Washington to win the battle of the narratives by showing the world that it is genuinely interested in peace and that the primary obstacles to an agreement can be found in Pyongyang.
It is easy to object that such steps would be more of the same. But there is a good reason why the United States and South Korea have fallen back, time after time, on this course of action: it is the least bad alternative. The model for this strategy is the Cold War, when the United States patiently pursued containment and deterrence of the Soviet threat until, after more than half a century, the Soviet Union peacefully imploded. The impoverished and illegitimate North Korean regime, too, will eventually need to transform itself or implode.
The Cold War was a lengthy undertaking that saw tensions wax and wane. The lesson of that era is that Washington should not overreact to such highs and lows but instead pursue a steady, principled policy to keep the pressure on a tyrannical regime without falling for provocations and risking a spiral into a major conflict. With presidents who see eye to eye, Washington and Seoul should be able to stick to this script more effectively than ever before.
North Korea’s Nuclear Opportunism
Why Kim Jong Un Chose to Exploit the Ukraine Crisis
March 24, 2022
With the entire world focused on Ukraine, the coming weeks and months will present the perfect opportunity for rogue states to make trouble, knowing that the United States and other powers are distracted. Chief among such potential opportunists is North Korea, which could trigger the sleeper crisis of 2022. The Biden administration must be ready for a flare-up on the Korean Peninsula even as Russian President Vladimir Putin causes bloodshed and threatens nuclear war in Ukraine.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine will only redouble North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s determination to expand his nuclear arsenal. Kim knows that under the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine gave up the nuclear weapons it inherited from the Soviet Union, and he no doubt figures that if Ukraine were still a nuclear power, Russia would not have dared to attack. For Kim, Ukraine’s experience only reinforces the lessons that his fellow dictators in Iraq and Libya learned the hard way: countries that give up their nuclear weapons programs become vulnerable, and their leaders face serious risks of being overthrown and killed.
FULL STEAM AHEAD
There are multiple reasons to be concerned that North Korea will carry out missile tests, a nuclear test, or other provocations in the coming year. First, the regime in Pyongyang has a history of greeting incoming South Korean presidents with threats. Yoon Suk-yeol, the conservative candidate who won the South Korean presidential election earlier this month, has already signaled that he will pursue a tougher policy toward North Korea. The last time a conservative president was elected in South Korea—Park Geun-hye—Kim conducted North Korea’s third nuclear test just weeks before her inauguration in February 2013. Progressive presidents have hardly gotten a pass: in 2017, during the first four months of Moon Jae-in’s presidency, North Korea conducted its sixth nuclear weapons test (of a hydrogen bomb) and two intercontinental ballistic missile tests. (A third ICBM, capable of reaching targets in the entire United States, followed later in the year.)
This year also has symbolic resonance in North Korea: it marks Kim’s first decade in power, the 80th anniversary of the birth of his father, Kim Jong Il, and the 110th anniversary of the birth of his grandfather, Kim Il Sung. The latter anniversary, on April 15, could prompt a major weapons test in North Korea. It is highly plausible, even probable, that North Korea is gearing up to test an ICBM or to launch a military satellite utilizing the same missile technology, which is banned by UN Security Council resolutions.
Even before the latest crisis, North Korea’s nuclear program was already in overdrive. Since coming to power, Kim has conducted four nuclear tests and more than 130 missile tests. Pyongyang is estimated to have up to 60 nuclear warheads and is producing enough fissile material to make half a dozen new bombs annually. Kim is now moving to place multiple warheads on a single ICBM. This capability, using what is known as a multiple independent reentry vehicle, would likely stymie limited U.S. missile defenses and enhance North Korea’s ability to strike the U.S. mainland with nuclear missiles—making North Korea one of just three countries in the world able to do so, along with China and Russia.
In the past six months, North Korea has tested a new submarine-launched ballistic missile, a train-mounted ballistic missile, a new surface-to-air defense missile system, a long-range strategic cruise missile, and multiple hypersonic missiles. Most recently, in early March, North Korea tested components of an ICBM, including one that would allow it to deliver multiple warheads from missiles that are even larger than the ICBMs that it tested in 2017. North Korea needs to continue to test and modernize its arsenal to achieve its strategic goal: securing international acceptance as a nuclear weapons power and, at the same time, building leverage for future diplomacy with the United States. Pakistan is North Korea’s model in this regard: after Pakistan’s first nuclear test in 1998, Islamabad faced U.S. and UN sanctions, but they were soon eased, and after 9/11, the United States showered Pakistan with aid.
Finally, the geopolitical environment is particularly propitious for North Korean missile tests. Russia is at odds with the West over its invasion of Ukraine. Chinese President Xi Jinping is too preoccupied with the economic and political fallout of Russia’s war—Xi is under intense pressure from both Washington and Moscow to pick a side—to be concerned with North Korea right now. In this context, neither Moscow nor Beijing is likely to agree to additional sanctions on North Korea at the UN Security Council. Both, in fact, are already relaxing the enforcement of sanctions on North Korea. This is practically an invitation for North Korea to carry out fresh provocations.
MORE OF THE SAME?
The problem is that if North Korea does raise its threat level with major weapons tests this year, the U.S. government has few good options for how to respond. North Korea’s nuclear program has bedeviled five U.S. presidents, and despite Washington employing every possible approach from summitry to threats of force, the goal of denuclearization remains as remote as ever.
This may explain why, after more than a year in office, U.S. President Joe Biden has unveiled no significant new initiatives on North Korea. The administration’s stated policy of a “calibrated, practical approach” is in between President Barack Obama’s “strategic patience” and President Donald Trump’s all-or-nothing “grand bargain,” which amounted to an acceptance of the status quo. To be fair, the Biden administration has made it clear that the United States is willing to talk to the North Koreans without any preconditions, but Pyongyang has shown little interest in further dialogue with Washington since the failure of the three Trump-Kim summits.
The only realistic option for Biden is to maintain a commitment to the denuclearization of North Korea as a long-term goal while, in the short and medium terms, pursuing a more pragmatic policy of sanctions, deterrence, and containment to limit the threat. These are not new policies, but the United States and its allies must seek to implement them with more consistency, credibility, and coordination than has previously been the case.
The coming weeks and months are the perfect opportunity for rogue states to make trouble.
Sanctions are one tool that could come in handy. The sanctions the George W. Bush administration imposed in 2005 on Macau’s Banco Delta Asia, where North Korea kept some of its cash, were one of the few steps taken by Washington that genuinely got Pyongyang’s attention. Yet only two years later, the United States agreed to release $25 million in frozen funds to spur six-party talks, and the sanctions were officially lifted in 2020. North Korea also noticed when Trump authorized the U.S. Treasury Department to block from the U.S. financial system any individual or foreign business that facilitates trade with Pyongyang. The Biden administration should expand such secondary sanctions on financial institutions that aid the Kim regime, including those in China. The administration has room to crack down further on North Korea’s financial networks under the 2019 Otto Warmbier Act (named after an American student murdered by North Korea but sent home right before his death). The law gives the president the power to sanction financial institutions that help North Korea evade UN sanctions. The United States needs to send a simple, direct message to foreign financial firms, particularly Chinese firms: they can do business with North Korea or they can do business with the United States, but they can’t do business with both. The model should be the tough sanctions that the United States imposed on Iran before reaching a deal on Tehran’s nuclear activities in 2015.
Sanctions should be eased only if North Korea takes verifiable and irreversible steps toward denuclearization. Such measures can be combined with strengthening military cooperation with allies to interdict illicit North Korean trade and weapons proliferation, expanding missile defenses around the Korean Peninsula, and beefing up military capabilities to deter North Korea.
SEOUL AND WASHINGTON, TOGETHER AGAIN
In the past, the United States and South Korea have sometimes pursued a hard line and sometimes a softer approach with North Korea, and they haven’t always been on the same page. For example, under the so-called Sunshine Policy, South Korea provided economic assistance to North Korea from 1998 to 2008. By contrast, during President George W. Bush’s first term, the United States pursued a tougher policy against North Korea—which Bush included in his “axis of evil.” More recently, despite the lack of denuclearization progress since the Trump-Kim summits, the Moon administration tried to engage with North Korea by easing sanctions and pushing for a formal end to the Korean War; for its part, the Biden administration thought such steps were premature.
Yoon will likely be in closer accord with Biden than was Moon. Yoon favors restoring the large-scale joint U.S.-South Korean military exercises that were scaled back in the years since Trump’s summits with Kim. If the North were to conduct an ICBM or a nuclear test, Biden and Yoon are likely to be united in more aggressively enforcing sanctions. Yoon has also expressed support for deploying additional U.S. missile defense batteries known as Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, meant to defend against North Korean missiles. Finally, Biden and Yoon agree on the need for Seoul to repair relations with Tokyo in order to bolster U.S.-Japanese-South Korean trilateral coordination. The Yoon-Biden partnership should make it possible to pursue a tougher sanctions approach while also leaving an opening for dialogue if Kim is interested.
Although the West should remain resolute in the face of North Korean provocations, Seoul and Washington should not be afraid to talk with Pyongyang. If the North does decide to return to negotiations, the United States should test the waters to see if it would be possible to conclude an interim deal that would freeze the North Korean nuclear program in a verifiable manner in return for partial sanctions relief from the United States. But the deal would need to be more equitable than North Korea’s demand at the 2019 Hanoi summit for most of the sanctions to be lifted in return for only a partial nuclear shutdown. An interim deal might be unrealistic because the Kim regime has shown no indication that it would accept the kind of intrusive inspections to which Iran agreed in 2015. But it is even less realistic to imagine that a grand bargain can be struck that would result in North Korea’s complete denuclearization. If nothing else, a willingness to engage in such limited negotiations will enable Washington to win the battle of the narratives by showing the world that it is genuinely interested in peace and that the primary obstacles to an agreement can be found in Pyongyang.
It is easy to object that such steps would be more of the same. But there is a good reason why the United States and South Korea have fallen back, time after time, on this course of action: it is the least bad alternative. The model for this strategy is the Cold War, when the United States patiently pursued containment and deterrence of the Soviet threat until, after more than half a century, the Soviet Union peacefully imploded. The impoverished and illegitimate North Korean regime, too, will eventually need to transform itself or implode.
The Cold War was a lengthy undertaking that saw tensions wax and wane. The lesson of that era is that Washington should not overreact to such highs and lows but instead pursue a steady, principled policy to keep the pressure on a tyrannical regime without falling for provocations and risking a spiral into a major conflict. With presidents who see eye to eye, Washington and Seoul should be able to stick to this script more effectively than ever before.
9. Yoon Has No Time to Waste Time Fighting His Predecessor
Conclusion:
In short, Korea faces a major crisis, and nothing is now more important than protecting people's lives and livelihoods. Instead the incoming and outgoing leaders of this country are squabbling over office space and personnel appointments. It is clear that the Moon Jae-in administration has no interest in aiding a smooth transfer of power, and president-elect Yoon Seok-youl will have to clean up the mess. But Yoon has no time to waste fighting Moon's petty obstructions. They should both pull themselves together and focus their attention on the needs of the people.
Yoon Has No Time to Waste Time Fighting His Predecessor
World leaders warn of a double crisis of slowed economic growth and inflation due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the OECD estimates that the war will slash the global economic growth rate by more than a percentage point. In the U.S. the consumer price index increased at the fastest clip in 40 years in February, prompting the Federal Reserve to hint at six more rate hikes this year after a quarter-percentage point increase last week. Tightened U.S. fiscal policy, of course, could prompt investors to pull their money out of foreign markets, which is what happened during the 1997 Asian financial crisis.
February's producer price index (PPI) the Bank of Korea announced on Wednesday was the highest on record as soaring raw material prices jacked up production costs. A rise in PPI will fuel a further increase in consumer prices, which have already risen to the four percent range. Gasoline prices have already surpassed W2,000 per liter, while imported grain prices soared to the highest level in almost nine years. A rise in flour prices translates directly into increased prices of groceries, which will add to the financial burden of low-income households. Drastic inflation looms.
Meanwhile coronavirus infections continue to surge, resulting in the cumulative number of infections surpassing 10 million people, but there are probably many more who have been infected. Korea ranks first in the world when it comes to cumulative infections seen over the past week, and every day, 300 to 400 people are losing their lives to the virus. The crisis is expected to worsen since the number of seriously ill patients and fatalities lags two to three weeks behind a surge in infections, and frontline medical workers are reeling from a shortage of antiviral pills.
In short, Korea faces a major crisis, and nothing is now more important than protecting people's lives and livelihoods. Instead the incoming and outgoing leaders of this country are squabbling over office space and personnel appointments. It is clear that the Moon Jae-in administration has no interest in aiding a smooth transfer of power, and president-elect Yoon Seok-youl will have to clean up the mess. But Yoon has no time to waste fighting Moon's petty obstructions. They should both pull themselves together and focus their attention on the needs of the people.
10. Fate of North Korean Refugees in China Presents an Historic Opportunity for Moon
From my friend and fellow board member at HRNK.
This Oped is published in korean by the Chosun Ilbo. Below is the English translation.
CHOSUN ILBO OPED published March 24, 2022
Fate of North Korean Refugees in China Presents an Historic Opportunity for Moon
By Suzanne Scholte, Seoul Peace Prize Laureate
For these closing weeks of his Presidency, President Moon Jae-in has an unprecedented and historic opportunity before him: to literally save the lives of hundreds of North Korean refugees currently detained in the People’s Republic of China. These unprecedented and historic factors have put Moon in a position to save the lives of innocent children, women and men who were simply seeking a better life. Here’s why: first, North Korea’s border remains closed making it impossible over the last two years for China to forcefully repatriate any North Koreans back to North Korea. In fact, terrified of the COVID pandemic, North Korea was one of the first nations to close its border. Second, South Korean did not join the United States and other nations last month to boycott the Beijing Olympics. Hence, South Korea is in a better position than most democratic nations who did to request humanitarian consideration for these refugees who face certain beatings, torture, imprisonment and even execution if they are forced back to North Korea. Their repatriation is likely to happen as soon as the border reopens as China wants them gone. An illustration of how much China wants to depopulate their detention centers is the fact that last year they released female North Korean refugees, who were victims of trafficking, back into the hands of their abusers because they could not force them back to North Korea.
Those North Koreans remaining in detention in China are in especially grave danger because they escaped in a time when escaping North Korea is more difficult than ever. This means they had to have resources, and to have resources, they must fall into two categories: they are elite Korean Worker’s Party members with access to resources OR they had family in the Republic of Korea that provided support to get them out of North Korea. And what is the fate for members of the Korean Workers party when they are repatriated to North Korea: death by either public execution or slow death in a political prison camp. And what does the DPRK do to North Koreans when it discovers they were trying to get to South Korea: death either by public execution or slow death in a political prison camp.
Thus, Moon is the one person in the world today who can save all these Korean children, women, and men from death by requesting that China allow them safe passage as a humanitarian gesture. It is also an historic time because once again Kim Jong Un is relentlessly testing missiles, and it is an historic fact that China has shown a willingness to allow large numbers of North Korean refugees’ safe passage to the Republic of Korea to show its displeasure with the DPRK’s missile tests.
Moon said during his last address before the United Nations that he would work to build “a Korean Peninsula that promotes shared prosperity and cooperation,” and that he would “make ceaseless efforts until my very last day in office.”
As long as Kim Jong Un denies human rights to the people of North Korea there can be no shared prosperity for Koreans living north of the DMZ, and thus those refugees currently held in China can only have prosperity and a future if Moon will act on their behalf.
It could be the greatest, most lasting impact of his Presidency as he could literally rescue refugees being led away to death. Who knows if among these refugees is a future President of South Korea as it is important to remember that Moon’s own family were also once refugees? During the Korean War when U.S. Navy and Merchant Marine ships safely rescued nearly 100,000 North Korea civilians from Hungnam and safely relocated them to South Korea for resettlement, it was Moon’s own family that was among the rescued. Because of that rescue Moon was given the opportunity of freedom and prosperity and a future in South Korea to become the President of the Republic of Korea.
Over 20 former U.S. Government officials recently wrote a bipartisan appeal to President Moon calling for his help for these specific refugees writing, “We hope that you will seize this opportunity as it would be an amazing legacy of your administration if you were to safely rescue these children, women and men before you leave office in May.” The signatories were officials who served in every U.S. Presidential administration since the 1970s including Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Barack Obama and Donald Trump.
Please, President Moon, this an historic opportunity to act on their behalf!
11. North Korea’s Cabinet orders tough crackdown on foreign electronic products sold in markets
Again, another indication of how much the reggiems fears access to the outside world. I suppose this is an indirect line of effort to try to shut down access.
We must never forget that information is an existential threat to the regime.
North Korea’s Cabinet orders tough crackdown on foreign electronic products sold in markets
North Hamgyong Province has decided against immediately confiscating foreign-made solar panels being used by the population
North Korean authorities recently ordered a tough crackdown on the sales of foreign-made and privately produced electronic equipment in local markets and is moving forward with efforts to confiscate all of these items, Daily NK has learned.
“The government believes the use of foreign-made electronics and souped-up DIY electronics is bad for the country’s energy situation,” a source in North Hamgyong Province told Daily NK on Wednesday. “The country’s Cabinet has therefore ordered a tough crackdown on their use among the population.”
According to a source, North Korean authorities have recently taken party, administrative, and legal agencies to task for insufficiently implementing government policy to conserve energy as North Koreans continue to “overuse” electricity in 2022, the second year of the current five-year economic development plan.
In particular, North Korea ordered a crackdown on the use of foreign-made electronics and DIY electronics that suck up state electricity, blaming them for the failure of the state economy.
North Korean authorities further pointed out that while almost all North Koreans nationwide use Chinese-made or individually made electronics sold in marketplaces, such as rechargers, batteries, transformers, and solar panels, these products do not accord with domestic electricity regulations, causing “great damage” to the power grid. The authorities slammed the items for making party policy to create a low energy economic structure a dead letter.
The Pyongyang 3404 tablet computer (Daily NK)
North Hamgyong Province has banned the sale of foreign-made or individually crafted electronics in markets across the province, including Chongjin, since Mar. 10. Operating under the prosecutor’s office and commercial department of the people’s committee, the authorities have also been confiscating inventories of said products.
In particular, provincial authorities reportedly warned that they would get tough with people who make electronics or sell foreign-made electronics on the sly, immediately turning over people who fail to comply with the ban to the court system for punishment.
The source said the province’s authorities have sent a written warning to every marketplace electronics seller in Chongjin, informing them of the ban on sales of Chinese-made or privately-made electronics and ordering them to wait until they can sell advanced, energy efficient, and domestically produced electronics.
However, the province reportedly decided against immediately confiscating foreign-made solar panels being used by the population. Instead, it will gradually replace them as domestic production of panels increases.
The source said marketplace electronics merchants in Chongjin are unhappy about the crackdown on sales, complaining that the authorities are throttling their business when they have already been suffering.
Jong So Yong is one of Daily NK’s freelance reporters. Questions about her articles can be directed to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.
12. Despite mid-air explosion of missile, Kim Jong Un expresses encouragement rather than rebuke
An interesting report in light of today's possible ICBM test launch.
Despite mid-air explosion of missile, Kim Jong Un expresses encouragement rather than rebuke
Rumor of the failed launch has spread among a handful of families attached to the Academy of National Defense Science and the Second Economic Committee, as well as among residents of Pyongyang’s Sunan and Ryongsong districts
Rodong Sinmun reported on Mar. 10 that Kim had visited the National Aerospace Development Administration (Rodong Sinmun-News1)
The in-flight explosion of a North Korean ballistic missile launched on Mar. 16 appears to have occurred while testing a new engine with liquid fuel ampoules. Though the test ended in failure, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un reportedly encouraged those involved with the launch, telling them to look toward the future.
In a telephone conversation with Daily NK on Wednesday, a Daily NK source in North Korea said the missile launched last week was meant to test a reconnaissance satellite. More specifically, it aimed to test a satellite and launch vehicle fired from a mobile launcher.
Prior to this, North Korea launched ballistic missiles from a transporter erector launcher (TEL) from Pyongyang’s Sunan International Airport on Feb. 27 and Mar. 5. Experts say these launches tested the capabilities of the Hwasong-17, a new ICBM. Last week’s launch appears to be a continuation of these tests.
The source said the missile exploded due to an engine problem. More specifically, he said a technical problem arose while testing a new engine structure with fuel ampoules and auxiliary engines.
Ampoules enable long-term storage of toxic liquid rocket fuel by coating the fuel tanks and piping with glass. Should North Korea perfect the technology, it would drastically reduce fueling time, making launches difficult to detect ahead of time. North Korea also changed the engine structure by adding auxiliary engines to boost the missile’s range, but the test launch ended in failure.
The source said North Korea is analyzing the exact causes of the failure and retooling for more launches.
The source said the authorities are giving serious thought to the next launch. They plan to conduct more tests only after scrutinizing the causes of the previous failure and making development adjustments.
However, he noted that the authorities plan to continue focusing on satellite launches. He said the government is quietly making plans to launch three or more rockets over the next four years.
Meanwhile, the source said Kim has responded to the mid-flight explosion by encouraging those involved in the test, rather than rebuking them.
According to him, Kim reacted with little anger to the failure, telling developers that nothing goes perfectly the first time and that they should put their heads together again.
Kim apparently chose encouragement over rebukes to promote morale among key personnel involved in the development of defense, science and technology, a top priority of the North Korean leader. This suggests Kim is underscoring his “spirit of love for the people,” which places value on cultivating science and technology experts.
However, the authorities are in the midst of disciplining those deemed responsible for the failure, Kim’s words of encouragement notwithstanding.
The source said a committee composed of about 10 leading cadres from the Organization and Guidance Department, Justice Department, and Defense Industry Department, as well as technical experts, is investigating the failed test. He said they have yet to reach a conclusion, but the outlines of the punishments to follow will soon emerge.
Those responsible will likely face only light punishments, given the North Korean leader’s words of encouragement, the source speculated.
However, some North Koreans familiar with the failed launch reportedly worry that many people could face punishment, given past precedent.
The source said rumor of the failed launch has spread among a handful of families attached to the Academy of National Defense Science and the Second Economic Committee, as well as among residents of Pyongyang’s Sunan and Ryongsong districts. He said some people even remarked that the explosion “blew to heaven” a lot of Workers’ Party money.
He said many people are concerned, reminded of how so many people were sacked when the Taepodong-1 rocket blew up during launch in 1998. The source further noted that a lot of people worry that many individuals “could get hurt” once the committee reaches its conclusion.
North Korea launched the Taepodong-1, the country’s first multistage rocket, in 1998. However, the first and second stage failed to separate with the third stage ignition. The country was trying to launch its Kwangmyongsong-1 satellite into orbit with the launch.
Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.
13. Yoon makes unusual move as President-elect
A novel approach.
Yoon makes unusual move as President-elect
Posted March. 24, 2022 07:59,
Updated March. 24, 2022 07:59
Yoon makes unusual move as President-elect. March. 24, 2022 07:59. by Sung-Hwi Kang yolo@donga.com.
South Korean President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol will begin listening to local public sentiment before taking office. It is an unusual move for a president-elect, which is speculated to be aimed at the June 1 local election.
Kim Eun-hye, the spokesperson for the president-elect, said during a briefing on Wednesday at the Korea Banking Institute in Seoul that President-elect Yoon is preparing to visit people in local areas and take a look at their livelihood, explaining that it is to express his willingness to fulfill his campaign pledges and reflect them in his national political agenda. As for the specific time and area, Kim said the visit will be made soon, adding rules have already been set but where to visit will be announced as soon as it is decided.
An official at Yoon’s transition committee said the president-elect’s move is to express his gratitude for the election and further strengthen communication with the people. Yoon reportedly responded positively to the request of some lawmakers to “listen to the voices of the people” during his meeting with newly-elected members of the People Power Party (PPP) the previous day. Following his visit to the Namdaemun Market in Seoul and the site of forest fire in Uljin on March 14 and 15, respectively, President-elect Yoon told his transition committee to “find the answer on the site.”
Yoon’s unusual move as president-elect is seen as aimed at the June 1 local election. A re-elected member of the ruling Democratic Party said the early stages of presidential transition are full of works, such as reports from each department and selection of national political agendas, adding that taking the time to thank people for his election seems to be aimed at the upcoming local election.
On the foreign affairs front, Yoon spoke with Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc on the phone on Wednesday. It is his sixth phone conversation with foreign heads of state following U.S. President Joe Biden, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, U.K. Prime Minster Boris Johnson, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Yoon and Nguyen discussed ways to strengthen bilateral cooperation, celebrating the 30th anniversary of diplomatic relations. Yoon is reportedly planning to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the phone within this week.
14. Moon lashes out after North tests possible ICBM
Yes, Kim is not giving President Moon a very nice going away present.
But his Peace Agenda policy is not all for naught. It has provided the benefit of truly exposing Kim's hostile policy. He has looked a gift horse in the mouth and chose not to engage (and not to accept aid).
We now have sufficient evidence that we must deal with him as he really is and not as we would wish him to be
Thursday
March 24, 2022
Moon lashes out after North tests possible ICBM
The Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) is introduced at an Oct. 10, 2020 military parade celebrating the 75th anniversary of the founding the North’s ruling Workers’ Party. [YONHAP]
North Korea fired what South Korea and Japan's militaries said was an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and other unidentified projectiles into the eastern waters off the Korean Peninsula on Thursday afternoon, eliciting an unusually sharp rebuke from President Moon Jae-in.
Presiding over an emergency meeting of the National Security Council (NSC) at the Blue House at 3:50 p.m., Moon condemned the test – possibly the first full launch of an ICBM by Pyongyang since 2017 – as a “blatant violation of United Nations Security Council resolutions and a serious threat to the Korean Peninsula and the international community," according to a press release by the presidential office.
“By conducting this latest test, the North has essentially scrapped the moratorium on ICBM testing promised by leader Kim Jong-un to the international community,” the press release quoted Moon as saying.
Earlier in the day, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said it detected the launch of an “unidentified projectile” from North Korea, described as a long-range missile and possibly an ICBM, fired at a high angle into space.
The Japanese Coast Guard also said the projectile was possibly a ballistic missile and that it was believed to have landed 170 kilometers (105 miles) west of Cape Tappi in Aomori Prefecture, inside Japan’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ), about 50 minutes after its launch was first reported.
North Korea most recently test-fired a missile on March 16 that appeared to explode shortly after its launch from Sunan Airport near Pyongyang. That test followed two other launches, conducted Feb. 26 and March 5, which the regime claimed were tests to launch a reconnaissance satellite into space.
U.S. and South Korean officials warned, however, that those two tests were of the North’s latest ICBM system, the Hwasong-17.
“The purpose of these tests, which did not demonstrate [full] ICBM range, was likely to evaluate this new system before conducting a test at full range in the future, potentially disguised as a space launch,” Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby said in a March 10 statement.
The Hwasong-17 was first unveiled at an Oct. 10, 2020 military parade marking the 75th anniversary of the founding of the North’s ruling Korean Workers’ Party. It was also displayed at a defense exhibition in Pyongyang last Oct. 12.
With an estimated length of 23 meters (74.5 feet) and a 2.3-meter diameter, the Hwasong-17 is the largest ICBM in the world.
Thursday’s launch marks the 13th missile test by North Korea in the past three months, which have raised alarm and condemnation from the United States, South Korea and Japan.
The tests come at a delicate time in Seoul, which is in the middle of an already unsmooth presidential transition from the liberal Moon, who advocated détente and the signing of a formal peace with nuclear-armed Pyongyang, to the conservative Yoon Suk-yeol, who has emphasized a posture of “peace through strength” in dealing with the North.
BY MICHAEL LEE [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]
15. New administration's North approach to be based on 'mutual reciprocity'
My snarky comment is that after today I guess South Korea should tst an ICBM. (yes sarcasm. I know the South does not need an ICBM to defend against north Korea)
Wednesday
March 23, 2022
New administration's North approach to be based on 'mutual reciprocity'
President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol's transition team announced on Wednesday that the Unification Ministry, photographed above, will not be abolished. [YONHAP]
President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol plans to approach North Korea on the basis of "mutual reciprocity," tying sanctions relief and revival of inter-Korean cooperation to the North's denuclearization, according to an official on the presidential transition team Wednesday.
The comments come as the transition team spokesman officially announced the same day that Yoon does not plan to abolish the Unification Ministry, but intends to restore what the transition spokesman called its “proper function.”
The official commenting on Yoon's North Korea policy, who spoke to the JoongAng Ilbo on the condition of anonymity, said that Yoon’s stance essentially precludes the easing of sanctions on Pyongyang and the return of inter-Korean engagement and cooperation should the North fail to make concrete steps to dismantle its nuclear weapons program.
“The current administration has tried to induce the North to denuclearize through many different policies, but all have failed,” the transition team official said. “Without progress on denuclearization, there will no carrots provided [to the North].”
The description of Yoon’s basic strategy vis-à-vis the recalcitrant regime marks a change from the policies of his predecessor, outgoing President Moon Jae-in, who sought security guarantees for Pyongyang and an end-of-war declaration formally terminating the official state of war on the Korean Peninsula to induce the regime to abandon its pursuit of nuclear weapons.
However, the official did not rule out aid for the North should it fulfill certain conditions. “Our basic stance is that we will provide practical assistance to the North if denuclearization occurs,” the official said.
According to the official, it is now likely that Moon’s goal of an end-of-war declaration before he leaves office will not come to fruition, given Yoon’s belief that the declaration was pursued without proper public communication or basis in the reality of the Korean Peninsula.
Yoon adopted a harsher view of how to deal with nuclear-armed North Korea on the campaign trail, saying that he believed Seoul should adopt a posture of “peace through strength” to deter provocations by Pyongyang.
Yoon is also likely to take a harder stance on the North’s human rights abuses — a field where the Moon administration has largely avoided joining international condemnation.
“[The president-elect] will not remain silent on North Korean residents’ suffering and human rights abuses for the sake of dialogue with the North,” the transition team official said. “We will adopt a policy regarding North Korea’s human rights abuses that is on the same level as that of the United States, the United Nations and the international community.”
During his campaign, Yoon emphasized that he would pursue a “North Korea policy with principles centered on the South Korea-U.S. alliance,” suggesting he will make sure the allies are in lockstep in their approach to the North.
The comments came the same day that the transition team officially said it would not abolish the Unification Ministry, the government department tasked with handling relations with North Korea, but that Yoon plans to “restore its proper function.”
The Unification Ministry has been mentioned as one of the ministries that could be abolished under the incoming administration’s bureaucratic reorganization plan, along with the Ministry of Gender Equality and Family.
“There will be no abolition of the Unification Ministry,” Won Il-hee, chief deputy spokesman of the transition team, said during a press briefing. “The transition team will look into detailed measures to restore the proper function of the Unification Ministry.”
Won said members of the transition team have expressed doubts about whether the Unification Ministry has fulfilled its basic duty to promote inter-Korean exchanges and cooperation and provide humanitarian assistance to North Korea.
He also said the incoming government wants to depart from the approach of the current administration under which the presidential office has taken the lead on inter-Korean issues and the Unification Ministry has executed its plans.
“Transition team members said they will come up with measures to bolster the ministry under the Yoon administration,” Won said.
BY MICHAEL LEE [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]
V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
