Quotes of the Day:
"After such a war against Russia, I ask you: Never, please, never tell us again that our army does not meet NATO standards. We have shown what our standards are capable of. And how much we can give to the common security in Europe and the world. How much we can do to protect from aggression against everything we value, everything you value,”
President Zelensky
"We have too many high-sounding words, and too few actions that correspond with them."
- Abigail Adams
"The superior man acts before he speaks, and afterwards speaks according to his action."
- Confucius
1. South Korean President-Elect Yoon Suk-Yeol’s Early Foreign Policy Challenges
2. N. Korea confirms 'successful' test-firing of Hwasong-17 ICBM
3. Yoon warns N. Korea will gain nothing from provocations after ICBM launch
4. New Sanctions Under the Iran, North Korea, and Syria Nonproliferation Act (INKSNA)
5.Kim Jong Un’s Latest Missile Test Officially Puts America ‘At Risk’
6. N. Korea says it test-fired biggest ICBM, US adds sanctions
7. Yoon calls on Xi to cooperate closely for N.K. denuclearization
8. Hawasong-17 ICBM Test Proves America's North Korea Policy Has Failed
9. North Korea's New ICBM: Built to Hit America With Multiple Nuclear Warheads
10. North Korea Just Openly Tested Its First ICBM Since 2017 And It's A Monster
11. S. Korea holds rare training involving F-35A fighters after N.K. ICBM launch
12. Yoon may visit former President Park prior to meeting Moon
13. Outgoing power’s obsession with authority over personnel affairs
14. Give South Korea Nuclear Weapons
15. Kim Jong-un stars in wild "Top Gun"-style North Korea missile launch video
16. Chrome Zero-Day Vulnerability: North Korean Hackers Bring Threats to US Targets, Same One in Past Years
17. Kim Jong Un’s Latest Missile Test Officially Puts America ‘At Risk’
1. South Korean President-Elect Yoon Suk-Yeol’s Early Foreign Policy Challenges
A good run down from Scott.
South Korean President-Elect Yoon Suk-Yeol’s Early Foreign Policy Challenges
Forbes · by Scott Snyder · March 24, 2022
... [+]SONG KYUNG-SEOK/POOL/AFP via Getty Images
President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol has wasted no time in coming out with an initial foreign and national security policy blueprint for his administration, even despite his well-advertised inexperience in foreign policy. The blueprint fleshes out Yoon’s campaign platform and elaborates on his views of North Korea, the comprehensive strategic alliance with the United States, South Korea’s global and regional diplomacy, and his approach to national security and defense.
The Biden administration should be enthusiastic about Yoon’s desire to develop a foreign policy that places alignment with the United States at the center of South Korean foreign policy priorities, strengthens relations with Japan and Southeast Asia, and imagines South Korea stepping up to international leadership as a “global pivotal state.” But the transition from President Moon Jae-in to Yoon will also likely generate early frictions with both China and North Korea and could undermine bipartisan domestic support necessary for South Korea to implement a confident foreign policy.
As a newcomer to foreign policy, Yoon must pass these early tests if he is to establish a stable foundation for South Korea’s foreign policy during his five-year term. The Yoon campaign advocated for a positive-sum approach to Sino-U.S. strategic rivalry by pledging both a “comprehensive strategic alliance” with the United States and a policy toward China based on “mutual respect.”
But Yoon’s strengthening of relations with the United States, including possible future membership in the Quad, has already drawn veiled warnings from China through which Chinese scholars argued that it is in South Korea’s national interest to continue the “choice avoidance” approach of the Moon administration. And China will surely have taken note of the fact that four of the first five international leaders to congratulate Yoon following his election were Quad members (plus the United Kingdom).
Even more inflammatory in the eyes of China are Yoon’s pledges to procure additional Terminal High Altitude Air Defense (Thaad) batteries to defend the Seoul metropolitan area and Yoon’s openness to an enhanced trilateral security relationship with the United States and Japan based on the goal of restoring Japan-South Korea relations. Both pledges step over Chinese red lines contained in the “three noes” pledges the Moon administration made to China to not procure additional missile defenses, integrate South Korean missile defense capabilities with those of Japan and America, or form a trilateral U.S.-Japan-South Korea alliance. Needless to say, Yoon’s team will need to undertake some pretty sophisticated diplomatic maneuvering to avoid being caught in the tightening vise of Sino-U.S. strategic competition.
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In addition, Yoon’s policy platform toward North Korea contains three priorities that Pyongyang is likely to reject: “complete denuclearization,” “reciprocity,” and “human rights.” Yoon’s foreign policy sets aside Moon’s seemingly exclusive prioritization of North Korea as the overriding focus of South Korea’s diplomacy, but ironically replaces it with a seemingly exclusive prioritization of North Korea within South Korea’s defense and deterrence posture to the exclusion of broader regional and global defense priorities.
North Korea’s current trajectory of military development, already set in January of 2021, will inevitably lead to an escalation of tensions with both the U.S. and South Korea as North Korea resumes testing of intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), satellite launches, and possibly even additional nuclear weapons. The ensuing crisis will constitute an early test of Yoon’s leadership, both in terms of his ability to coordinate with the Biden administration and to manage peninsular stability.
Likewise, if North Korea did not respond to the Moon administration’s unilateral offers of incentives, such as the end of war declaration, to pave the way for inter-Korean engagement, it is unlikely that North Korea will be any more forthcoming in response to packaged or conditioned approaches that require North and South Korea to move in tandem. This makes the Yoon administration’s offers of humanitarian and economic assistance in phases alongside North Korean denuclearization a non-starter.
... [+]JUNG YEON-JE/AFP via Getty Images
Yoon’s discussion of North Korean human rights may be the most explosive issue that might have ramifications for peninsular stability as well as generate domestic tensions between Yoon and the opposition-majority National Assembly. Both North Korea’s bristling opposition to past South Korean information penetration efforts and the current National Assembly’s support for a law that bans the dissemination of leaflets by balloon into North Korea could trigger an escalation of inter-Korean tensions designed to both kneecap Yoon domestically and paralyze his North Korea policy. Moreover, Yoon’s pledges to enforce the North Korean Human Rights Act, passed in 2016 but long stalled during the Moon administration, may be a point of ongoing contention between the progressive-majority National Assembly and Yoon’s conservative administration.
If Yoon is able to effectively manage near-term challenges from China and North Korea, he will then need to update his Russia policy to bring South Korea into stronger alignment with NATO and the European Union in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine. In addition, Yoon should more clearly upgrade Southeast Asia as a South Korean foreign policy priority.
Yoon has already proposed an “ABCD Strategy” toward Southeast Asia (advance human capital, build health security, connect cultures, and digitize Asian infrastructure) that looks to be a continuation of Moon’s New Southern Policy focused on people, peace, and prosperity.
The stepped-up international role for South Korea that Yoon envisions will be welcomed, especially at a moment when there are increasing strains on the ability of nations to contribute to the international security agenda. But such cooperation is only likely to materialize if Yoon is able to maintain strong domestic political support for his leadership, and if he is able to pass the initial hurdles posed by China and North Korea.
Forbes · by Scott Snyder · March 24, 2022
2. N. Korea confirms 'successful' test-firing of Hwasong-17 ICBM
(2nd LD) N. Korea confirms 'successful' test-firing of Hwasong-17 ICBM | Yonhap News Agency
(ATTN: CHANGES photo; ADDS more)
By Yi Won-ju
SEOUL, March 25 (Yonhap) -- North Korea said Friday that it successfully test-fired a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), called the Hwasong-17, the previous day on the direct order of its leader Kim Jong-un.
Making an on-site inspection of the test, Kim stressed his country would be "fully ready for long-standing confrontation with the U.S. imperialists," according to the North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).
Kim was quoted as adding, "The new strategic weapon of the DPRK would make the whole world clearly aware of the power of our strategic armed forces once again." DPRK stands for the North's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
"He stressed that our national defense forces would possess formidable military and technical capabilities unperturbed by any military threat and blackmail and keep themselves fully ready for long-standing confrontation with the U.S. imperialists," the KCNA said in its quite lengthy English-language report.
Kim warned that any forces infringing upon the security of his country should be aware that it will have to pay a "dear price."
He provided detailed guidance nearly every day to ensure that the Hwasong-17 was completed as a "reliable nuclear war deterrence means," the KCNA said, calling the new weapon system a "fruition of self-reliance."
The ICBM flew 1,090 kilometers for 4,052 seconds at a top altitude of 6,248 km before "accurately hitting the pre-set area" in the East Sea, the KCNA said.
South Korea's military said Thursday that it detected the launch from the Sunan airfield in Pyongyang at 2:34 p.m. and the missile flew some 1,080 kilometers at a top altitude of over 6,200 km.
Shortly after the launch, South Korean President Moon Jae-in presided over an emergency meeting of the National Security Council (NSC) and strongly condemned the North's test-firing.
The White House on Thursday also strongly condemned the missile launch and called on Pyongyang to "immediately cease its destabilizing actions."
Thursday's launch marked the North's first ICBM launch since 2017 in a move sharply escalating tensions in the region.
It was Pyongyang's 12th show of force this year, ending its self-imposed moratorium on nuclear and long-range missile testing.
In April 2018, Pyongyang declared a moratorium on nuclear and ICBM tests amid Seoul-brokered diplomacy that led to the first-ever summit between the United States and the North in Singapore in June of the same year.
julesyi@yna.co.kr
(END)
3. Yoon warns N. Korea will gain nothing from provocations after ICBM launch
Good. Do not give in to political warfare and blackmail diplomacy.
Yoon warns N. Korea will gain nothing from provocations after ICBM launch | Yonhap News Agency
SEOUL, March 25 (Yonhap) -- President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol warned North Korea on Friday it will gain nothing from provocations, a day after the North launched an intercontinental ballistic missile.
"I sternly warn North Korea that nothing can be gained from provocations," Yoon wrote on his Facebook page. "The Republic of Korea will safeguard freedom and peace by building a stronger security posture."
hague@yna.co.kr
(END)
Keywords
4. New Sanctions Under the Iran, North Korea, and Syria Nonproliferation Act (INKSNA)
Now more enforcement.
New Sanctions Under the Iran, North Korea, and Syria Nonproliferation Act (INKSNA) - United States Department of State
state.gov · by Ned Price, Department Spokesperson
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New Sanctions Under the Iran, North Korea, and Syria Nonproliferation Act (INKSNA)
Press Statement
March 24, 2022
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The United States today announced sanctions on five entities and individuals located in Russia and the DPRK and one entity in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) for proliferation activities under the Iran, North Korea, and Syria Nonproliferation Act (INKSNA). As part of this action, we imposed sanctions against the Russian entities Ardis Group of Companies LLC (Ardis Group); PFK Profpodshipnik; LLC, and Russian individual Igor Aleksandrovich Michurin; as well as DPRK entity Second Academy of Natural Science Foreign Affairs Bureau (SANS FAB); and DPRK individual Ri Sung Chol (aka Ri Su’ng-ch’o’l) for transferring sensitive items to North Korea’s missile program. These measures are part of our ongoing efforts to impede the DPRK’s ability to advance its missile program and they highlight the negative role Russia plays on the world stage as a proliferator to programs of concern.
We also are imposing sanctions against the PRC entity Zhengzhou Nanbei Instrument Equipment Co. Ltd for supplying Syria with equipment controlled by the Australia Group chemical and biological weapons nonproliferation regime. The ongoing imposition of INKSNA sanctions against PRC entities calls attention to the role of PRC entities in proliferation and shortcomings in the PRC’s implementation of export controls and its nonproliferation track record.
These determinations underscore the continuing need for all countries to remain vigilant to efforts by North Korea and Syria to advance their proliferation programs of concern. We will continue to work to impede these programs and use our sanctions authorities to spotlight the foreign suppliers, such as these entities in the PRC and Russia that provide sensitive materials and technology to the DPRK and Syria. The sanctions announced today will be in effect for two years and include restrictions on U.S. government procurement, U.S. government assistance, and exports.
state.gov · by Ned Price, Department Spokesperson
5. Kim Jong Un’s Latest Missile Test Officially Puts America ‘At Risk’
Kim Jong Un’s Latest Missile Test Officially Puts America ‘At Risk’
Photo Illustration by Luis G. Rendon/The Daily Beast/Getty/Reuters
North Korea’s test Thursday of its newest, strongest intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) has exposed the weakness of U.S. defense against the North’s growing ability to explode a warhead anywhere in America.
By test-firing a Hwasong 17 from a site dangerously close to Pyongyang, the North challenged the U.S. to fire back with more than just diplomatic verbiage and act quickly on figuring out ways to shoot down missiles that could land anywhere on U.S. soil.
“A multiple warhead ICBM risks overwhelming the limited number of missile interceptors deployed in Alaska and California,” said Bruce Klingner, a former CIA analyst with the Heritage Foundation in Washington. The impact, he told The Daily Beast, is “putting the American homeland at risk, overwhelming the limited number of missile interceptors deployed in Alaska and California.”
The latest ICBM shot broke a longstanding moratorium on testing long-range missiles of nuclear warheads. It has also proven that recent South Korean efforts to bring about reconciliation with North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un have failed. North Korea’s last previous test of an ICBM, in the guise of a satellite, was in November 2017, and its sixth and last nuclear test was two months earlier.
This time around, the North did not pretend the ICBM, which landed 670 miles away in waters near the large northern Japanese island of Hokkaido, was just a satellite. Dropping the satellite cover “speaks volumes about Pyongyang’s belief that the Russia-Ukraine war and escalating tensions between the U.S. and China have distracted the United States,” said Evans Revere, former senior North Korea watcher at the U.S. embassy in Seoul and Washington. North Korea now has “a window of opportunity to carry out a major advance in its ICBM capabilities with minimum risk.”
The missile shot set off alarm bells in Japan. It was, said Nobuo Kishi, defense minister, a “new class” of missile, much stronger than the Hwasong 15 fired by North Korea in 2017.
North Korea showed off the long-range thrust of the Hwasong 17, paraded in Pyongyang in October 2020 flaunting multiple launchers, by firing its latest version 3,850 miles into the atmosphere.
U.S. counter-missile defense is iffy at best.
By flattening the arc, the missile is assumed to be able to land anywhere in the U.S. Even “the Hwasong-15 proved a range that could hit the U.S.,” said Bruce Bechtol, former analyst at the Pentagon and author of numerous books and articles on the North’s defenses. “So, yes, the North Koreans have that capability and have had it since at least 2017.”
But defending against them won’t be easy. “Can these missiles be shot down?,” Bechtol asked rhetorically in an email exchange with The Daily Beast. “One would think the answer is yes with our ballistic missile defense if only one missile was fired.” But “if the North Koreans were to send a volley, say six missiles all at once or even more, that shoot-down capability becomes significantly more difficult.”
Not that the U.S. isn’t trying.
“Ground based interceptors in Alaska are positioned to defend against this threat,” said David Maxwell, a retired U.S. army special forces officer with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington. “We have had some good test results.”
“His goal is to become accepted as a nuclear weapons state.”
He doubted, however, if the North would stop testing just because the U.S. has managed, at tremendous expense, to conduct successful counter-missile tests. “I do not think a missile test by us will have any deterrent effect on Kim Jong Un,” he told The Daily Beast. “If Kim Jong Un thinks he must attack the US with an ICBM, he is going to do it however successful our tests have been.”
Analysts doubted, though, if Kim Jong Un was ready to go beyond showing off the North’s potential.
“Kim's intention is not to launch a nuclear war,” said David Straub, a former U.S. diplomat in Seoul. “His goal is to become accepted as a nuclear weapons state, that is, to keep and increase his nuclear weapons while seeing the international community drop sanctions against him, and then eventually to use his nuclear threat to undermine, first, the U.S.-South Korean alliance, and, second, the South Korean state.”
But, he added, “In the very unlikely event that Kim launched an ICBM against the United States or its allies, the United States would shoot it down, and much more besides.”
The question, though, is whether North Korean engineers and physicists have yet figured out how to fit a warhead to the tip of a missile. “We do not know if they miniaturized a nuclear warhead,” said Maxwell. “We know they have been working toward this. We have to assume they are on the path to produce one.”
People watch a TV at the Seoul Railway Station showing a file image of a North Korean missile launch, on September 15, 2021 in Seoul, South Korea. The unidentified type of missiles were fired from central inland areas of the North on Wednesday afternoon, and the South Korean and the U.S. intelligence authorities are analyzing details for additional information, the JCS said in a release.
Photo by Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images
While the White House and State Department were going through ritualistic condemnations of the test, South Korea responded with a display of its own prowess by test-firing missiles capable of hitting targets anywhere in North Korea.
Within hours after reporting the North had launched the ICBM, the South’s joint military staff announced tests of ground, sea and air missiles. South Korea has rarely if ever conducted all three types of tests in rapid succession, but South Korea’s military command said it wanted to show it was ready and able to attack North Korean test sites.
The drills sent “a clear counterforce message to North Korea,” said South Korea’s Yonhap news agency.
South Korea’s outgoing President Moon Jae-in, frustrated in attempts at reopening dialogue with Kim Jong Un, presumably authorized the test, which he condemned in a formal statement. His efforts have been strongly opposed by President elect Yoon Suk-yeol, who has promised to rebuild strong ties with the U.S. while joining in calls for denuclearization.
The U.S. charge d’affaires in South Korea, Christopher Del Corso, said the U.S. and South Korea shared “the common goal of complete denuclearization,” but did not suggest how they would go about dealing with the North.
Nor could the U.S. expect real support elsewhere. Victor Cha, in charge of North Korea issues at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said the “normal reflex'' would be to seek a UN Security Council Resolution, but he doubted if Russia and China would go along in view of the war in Ukraine and ongoing problems between the U.S. and China.
Sue Mi Terry, director for Korea at the Wilson Center in Washington, was not optimistic. In a panel staged by CSIS, she said she expected more such tests. “I’m afraid we’re at the beginning of this phase,” she said. “I expect more provocations.”
Testing missiles, though, carries perils. In its latest previous test, on March 16, a North Korean missile exploded about 20 kilometers up in the air after being launched from the Sunan site near Pyongyang.
“Multiple witnesses” in Pyongyang saw it happen, according to NK News, a website in Seoul that tracks North Korea.
“Debris fell in or near Pyongyang,” NK News reported, citing an image showing “a red-tinted ball of smoke at the end of a zig-sagging rocket launch trail in the sky” and “smaller trails” appearing “to extend straight down toward the ground.”
6. N. Korea says it test-fired biggest ICBM, US adds sanctions
N. Korea says it test-fired biggest ICBM, US adds sanctions
AP · by KIM TONG-HYUNG · March 24, 2022
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — North Korea said Friday it test-fired its biggest-yet intercontinental ballistic missile under the orders of leader Kim Jong Un, who vowed to expand the North’s “nuclear war deterrent” while preparing for a “long-standing confrontation” with the United States.
The report by North Korean state media came a day after the militaries of South Korea and Japan said they detected the North launching an ICBM in its first long-range test since 2017.
The launch extended a barrage of weapons demonstrations this year that analysts say are aimed at forcing the United States to accept the idea of North Korea as a nuclear power and remove crippling sanctions against its broken economy that has been further damaged by pandemic-related difficulties.
State TV dramatized the testing process like a Hollywood movie, showing Kim walking in slow motion in front of his giant missile in sunglasses and a black leather motorcycle jacket. It edited quick cuts that alternately show Kim and other officials staring at their watches before Kim takes off his shades and nods, with the video then showing the missile being rolled out of the hangar.
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The Hwasong-17, which was fired at a high angle to avoid the territorial waters of neighbors, reached a maximum altitude of 6,248 kilometers (3,880 miles) and traveled 1,090 kilometers (680 miles) during a 67-minute flight before landing in waters between North Korea and Japan, Pyongyang’s official Korean Central News Agency said.
KCNA claimed the launch met its technical objectives and proved the ICBM could be operated quickly during wartime conditions.
The South Korean and Japanese militaries had announced similar flight details, which analysts say suggested that the missile could reach targets 15,000 kilometers (9,320 miles) away when fired on normal trajectory with a warhead weighing less than a ton. That would place the entire U.S. mainland within striking distance.
Believed to be about 25 meters (82 feet) long, the Hwasong-17 is the North’s longest-range weapon and, by some estimates, the world’s biggest road-mobile ballistic missile system. North Korea revealed the missile in a military parade in October 2020 and Thursday’s launch was its first full-range test.
KCNA paraphrased Kim as saying that his new weapon would make the “whole world clearly aware” of the North’s bolstered nuclear forces. He vowed for his military to acquire “formidable military and technical capabilities unperturbed by any military threat and blackmail and keep themselves fully ready for long-standing confrontation with the U.S. imperialists.”
The agency published photos of the missile leaving a trail of orange flames as it soared from a launcher truck on an airport runway near the capital, Pyongyang, and Kim smiling and clapping as he celebrated with military officials from an observation deck.
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Other images showed Kim penning a memo ordering the Hwasong-17 test flight and approving the launch. Kim has issued handwritten orders for some of the most significant weapons demonstrations of his rule over North Korea, including its previous most recent ICBM test-flight in November 2017, which capped a highly provocative run in nuclear and missile tests that triggered a verbal exchange of war threats with then-President Donald Trump.
South Korea’s military responded to Thursday’s launch with live-fire drills of its own missiles launched from land, a fighter jet and a ship, underscoring a revival of tensions as diplomacy remains frozen. It said it confirmed readiness to execute precision strikes against North Korea’s missile launch points as well as command and support facilities.
U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin held separate telephone conversations with his counterparts in South Korea and Japan where they discussed response measures to North Korean missile activities and vowed to strengthen defense cooperation, according to U.S. Defense Department statements.
Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi said he talked with South Korean counterpart Chung Eui-yong over the phone and agreed to strengthen bilateral cooperation against the North Korean threat and seek further U.N. Security Council actions against Pyongyang. Seoul’s Unification Ministry, which handles inter-Korean affairs, criticized the North for breaking its self-imposed moratorium on ICBM tests.
“Whatever North Korea’s intent may be, the North must immediately suspend action that create tensions on the Korean Peninsula and destabilizes the regional security situation and return to the table for dialogue and negotiations,” ministry spokesperson Cha Deok-cheol said in a briefing.
The United States requested an open Security Council meeting on the launch and anticipates it on Friday, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, told reporters.
The United States also imposed fresh sanctions against five entities and individuals in Russia and North Korea over transferring sensitive items to the North’s missile program, State Department spokesperson Ned Price said.
Thursday’s test was North Korea’s 12th round of launches this year and the most provocative since President Joe Biden took office.
North Korea’s resumption of nuclear brinkmanship reflects a determination to cement its status as a nuclear power and wrest economic concessions from Washington and others from a position of strength, analysts say. Kim may also feel a need to trumpet his military accomplishments and drum up internal loyalty while the country faces economic difficulties.
The other recent tests included a purported hypersonic weapon, a long-range cruise missile and an intermediate-range missile that could reach Guam, a major U.S. military hub in the Pacific. The U.S. and South Korean militaries had expected a full-range test of the Hwasong-17 after concluding two of the recent midrange launches included components of the new ICBM.
Following its streak of nuclear and ICBM tests in 2017, Kim suspended such testing ahead of his first meeting with Trump. But the diplomacy derailed in 2019 when the Americans rejected North Korean demands for a major release of U.S.-led sanctions against the North in exchange for a limited surrender of its nuclear capabilities.
The ICBMs launched in three 2017 test flights demonstrated they could reach into the U.S. mainland. The larger Hwasong-17 may be intended to be armed with multiple warheads to overwhelm missile defenses.
North Korea’s ruling party in January had issued a veiled threat to end Kim’s moratorium on ICBM and nuclear tests, citing U.S. hostility.
South Korea’s military has also detected signs North Korea may be restoring some of the nuclear-testing tunnels it detonated just before Kim’s first meeting with Trump in 2018. Some experts say the North may resume nuclear testing in coming months.
___
AP writer Mari Yamaguchi in Tokyo contributed to the report.
AP · by KIM TONG-HYUNG · March 24, 2022
7. Yoon calls on Xi to cooperate closely for N.K. denuclearization
We all call for this. Unfortunately it will never happen. China will not contribute to solving the security problems of the ROK and US.
(4th LD) Yoon calls on Xi to cooperate closely for N.K. denuclearization | Yonhap News Agency
(ATTN: UPDATES with more details in paras 5-6, 10-17)
By Lee Haye-ah
SEOUL, March 25 (Yonhap) -- President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol called on Chinese President Xi Jinping Friday to cooperate closely for North Korea's denuclearization and the stable management of the political situation on the Korean Peninsula, his spokesperson said.
Yoon made the call during a 25-minute phone conversation with Xi a day after North Korea test-launched an intercontinental ballistic missile, raising tensions in the region to a new high.
"Regarding North Korea's ICBM-class missile launch yesterday, President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol stressed that the people are greatly concerned over the rapid escalation of tensions on the Korean Peninsula and in the region caused by North Korea's serious provocation," Kim Eun-hye said in a written briefing.
"(Yoon) called for the two countries to cooperate closely to realize the complete denuclearization of North Korea and for the stable management of the political situation on the Korean Peninsula," she said.
In previewing the call, Kim had said it would be the first time for Xi to speak with a South Korean leader before they took office, suggesting the high importance Beijing placed on establishing a close relationship with the incoming government.
During the call, Yoon and Xi agreed to communicate closely to set up a meeting between them at an early date after Yoon's inauguration on May 10, she said.
North Korea earlier confirmed it successfully test-fired a new ICBM, called the Hwasong-17, on Thursday at the direct order of its leader Kim Jong-un, scrapping a self-imposed moratorium on long-range missile testing that had been in place since late 2017.
China is North Korea's main ally and economic benefactor, and its cooperation is key to getting Pyongyang to dismantle its missile and nuclear weapons programs.
Xi sent a congratulatory message to Yoon upon his March 9 election, saying South Korea is a "close neighbor and important cooperation partner."
Xi congratulated Yoon again on Friday and Yoon thanked him while congratulating the Chinese president on the successful hosting of the National People's Congress earlier this month.
"During today's phone call, President-elect Yoon and President Xi agreed to work to develop new South Korea-China relations on the occasion of the 30th anniversary of establishing diplomatic ties," Kim said, referring to the milestone this year.
"President-elect Yoon also said he hopes to work together with President Xi going forward to advance South Korea-China relations with the spirit of mutual respect and cooperation," she said.
Xi responded by characterizing the two countries as "close neighbors that cannot move away," saying the two sides should work to bring benefits to their countries and their peoples by promoting stable and long-term development in bilateral ties, according to the spokesperson.
Yoon and Xi agreed on a wide range of issues, including activating high-level strategic communication to properly manage pending issues between the two countries and expand practical cooperation on supply chain issues, health, climate change, fine dust and other environmental matters, and culture.
"They shared the view that reducing the distance between the hearts of the two peoples is an important foundation for the development of bilateral relations, and agreed to work together to that end," Kim said.
Moreover, the two agreed to cooperate actively on regional and global issues in light of the two countries' increased statuses in the international community over the last 30 years, she said.
Since his election, Yoon has also spoken with U.S. President Joe Biden, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Vietnamese President Nguyen Xuan Phuc.
hague@yna.co.kr
(END)
8. Hawasong-17 ICBM Test Proves America's North Korea Policy Has Failed
What makes us think that adopting a "normal realistic approach" to north Korea will work when north Korea is far from a normal country?
Adopting this recommendation will result in Kim judging his strategy a success and therefore he will continue to execute it. We have to deal with Kim as he really is and not as we would wish him to be.
Hawasong-17 ICBM Test Proves America's North Korea Policy Has Failed
North Korea’s ICBM Test Underscores Futility of U.S. Policy – Pyongyang’s March 24, 2022, ICBM missile test has created agitation in both Washington and East Asian capitals. If it were not for the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, this development would easily be the top concern of U.S. foreign policy officials. Evidence indicates that the missile tested was probably that of an ICBM capable of reaching the U.S. mainland. It was the first time North Korea had tested a long-range missile since 2017, just before relations with the United States thawed, leading to three summit meetings between North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un and President Donald Trump.
An ICBM Test We Should Have Expected
Pyongyang’s latest action was thoroughly predictable. North Korean complaints about Washington’s policy positions had been resurgent for more than two years. In January 2022, Pyongyang conducted 7 missile tests in a single month. Kim’s regime capped off the series by marking the lunar New Year with the flight of an intermediate-range missile, the Hwasong-12, capable of reaching Guam.
The flurry of tests punctuated Kim’s conclusion that once-promising hopes for establishing a normal bilateral relationship with Washington were now in the rearview mirror. Such hopes had risen dramatically in 2018 and 2019 when Trump’s administration seemed to abandon the entrenched U.S. policy of trying to isolate North Korea. His willingness to hold multiple summit meetings with Kim was an indication of a more realistic and flexible U.S. approach. The video image of Trump briefly crossing into North Korea during the third summit was especially powerful symbolism that a more constructive, cordial relationship might be on the horizon.
Growing domestic opposition, combined with policy sabotage by National Security Advisor John Bolton and other hardliners on the president’s foreign policy team, doomed the effort to achieve constructive change. The abrupt end to the February 2019 summit in Hanoi occurred because the U.S. side refused to back away from Washington’s long-standing (and unrealistic) demand that Pyongyang takes major steps to abandon its nuclear weapons program before negotiations could commence on other issues.
As hopes for a rapprochement faded, Kim’s government revived its hostile, combative rhetoric in late 2019. It was notable, though, that dangerous, disruptive actions on Pyongyang’s part were slower to re-emerge. Pyongyang appeared to hope that whatever the outcome of the 2020 U.S. presidential election, Washington might be more flexible and accommodating going forward.
With Joe Biden’s victory, it became clear that any hope for innovative measures regarding the North Korea issue was misplaced. Biden’s personal commitment to Washington’s futile, pre-Trump zombie policy of treating Pyongyang as an international pariah was apparent even during the 2020 election debates. Biden confirmed the continuation of the sterile approach of trying to isolate North Korea when the administration imposed new sanctions following the January 2022 missile tests.
From ICBM Tests to Nuclear Tests?
Yet there are still some manifestations of North Korean restraint. Pyongyang has not conducted a nuclear-weapons test since September 2017—just before the Trump administration began to pursue its outreach. Kim’s government also implemented a self-imposed moratorium on all missile tests–even the short-range variety. That policy did not change until January 2022, and the moratorium on long-range missiles just ended with the March test. North Korea’s moratorium on nuclear tests remains in effect for the time being. However, if the Biden administration’s ossified policy regarding bilateral relations doesn’t change, Kim’s restraint even on that issue is likely to expire soon.
The Biden foreign policy team seems caught in a time warp. Trump’s initiatives were encouraging because they reflected greater policy realism and flexibility. Unfortunately, Washington now seems to have reverted to the status quo ante. Instead of persisting in the fruitless demand for Pyongyang to return to a non-nuclear status, U.S. leaders should seek ways to establish a normal bilateral relationship on multiple fronts. That means easing and eventually eliminating the vast array of economic sanctions that have been imposed over the decades. It also means negotiating a treaty formally ending the Korean War and establishing full diplomatic relations between the two countries.
The alternative is to continue treating North Korea as a pariah while watching helplessly as the country slowly, but steadily, builds a nuclear arsenal and a sophisticated missile fleet that includes ICBMs capable of devastating American cities. Such an approach benefits no one. At the moment, the United States has no meaningful relationship with the world’s latest nuclear power. That situation is dangerous for all parties.
The new ICBM test is the latest warning that Washington needs to adopt a normal, realistic relationship with North Korea. So far, it does not appear that the Biden administration is up to that crucial task.
Ted Galen Carpenter, a senior fellow in defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute and a contributing editor at 19FortyFive, is the author of 12 books and more than 950 articles on international affairs. He is also a 1945 Contributing Editor.
9. North Korea's New ICBM: Built to Hit America With Multiple Nuclear Warheads
Good description of the test.
North Korea's New ICBM: Built to Hit America With Multiple Nuclear Warheads
The Deeper Meaning Behind North Korea’s ICBM Test: On Thursday, North Korea carried out its first full-scale intercontinental-range ballistic missile (ICBM) test since November 2017. Like its three previous tests—two in July 2017 and one in November that year—this test saw a large missile launched thousands of kilometers above the Earth. This form of “lofted” testing doesn’t send the missile halfway across the globe, but allows North Korean engineers to demonstrate that such a capability is well within reach.
The new missile was revealed to be the Hwasongpho-17–but more commonly referred to in most media as the Hwasong-17 ICBM–a missile first seen at a military parade in October 2020. This is a large liquid-propellant missile that’s launched from a road-mobile missile. This missile is notably so large that its test marks a milestone in global missile history: this is without a doubt the largest liquid-propellant missile launched from a road-mobile launcher anywhere ever.
The missile, which flew for some 71 minutes, reached a height of 6,200 kilometers and covered 1,080 kilometers on the earth’s surface. These flight characteristics indicate that it would be able to carry a moderately heavy payload to any target in the contiguous 48 U.S. states, all the way to the southern tip of Florida. The remarkable four-chamber clustered liquid propellant engine generates sufficient thrust to also allow the missile’s first stage to serve as a capable foundation for a new space launch vehicle as well.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un oversaw the test and underscored the achievement as illustrative of the ingenuity of the country’s national defense scientists. North Korean state media didn’t discuss what this missile’s likely true purpose is: carrying multiple nuclear warheads to a range of targets in the United States. A missile this size is far too excessive for a single-warhead payload.
Kim has indicated that he sought such missiles during a work report to a congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea in January 2021. Two previous tests, on February 27 and March 5, may have validated some subsystems that could be used in an eventual post-boost vehicle atop the Hwasongpho-17 to allow it to carry and deliver multiple warheads.
This missile’s debut is not a gamechanger to the overall security relationship between North Korea and the United States and its allies but does represent an inflection point in the nature of the threat posed by Pyongyang’s nuclear capabilities. North Korea’s nuclear forces are growing more sophisticated and maturing.
To make matters worse, the changed nature of global geopolitics has given Kim a particularly favorable international environment in which to proceed with these types of ICBM and other missile tests. China and Russia are largely disinterested in allowing new United Nations Security Council-sanctioned action against Pyongyang, even as it returns to activity that was once deemed beyond the pale. Meanwhile, Russia’s ongoing aggression against Ukraine continues to absorb much political capital and oxygen in Washington, DC, leaving the Korean Peninsula relatively lower on the agenda today.
From here, we should expect to see Kim pick up some of the bigger ticket items on his January 2021 military modernization agenda. Multiple warheads, ICBMs with solid rocket motors, new space launchers, and tactical nuclear weapons are still on Kim’s list. So far, his list appears to be credible and there’s little reason to believe that North Korea won’t follow through.
North Korea wheeling out new Hwasong-17 ICBM. Image Credit: DPRK State Media.
North Korea appears to be well into the second major campaign of nuclear force development under Kim Jong Un. The first such campaign—what we might call the “byungjin campaign”—ran roughly from early 2013 to the end of 2017. The ongoing campaign has been couched in terms of a five-year plan, which could leave plenty of testing ahead.
While North Koreans and Americans are no doubt destined to return to the negotiating table at some point in the future, there’ll likely be no progress anytime soon. The North Koreans have much work to do to expand their nuclear deterrent as they cope with a difficult internal environment amid food shortages, economic difficulties, and the pandemic. If and when negotiations do resume—be it under President Biden or a successor American president—North Korea’s nuclear forces will look significantly different.
A nuclear-armed North Korea is here to stay.
Ankit Panda is the Stanton Senior Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. An expert on the Asia-Pacific region, his research interests range from nuclear strategy, arms control, missile defense, nonproliferation, emerging technologies, and U.S. extended deterrence. He is the author of Kim Jong Un and the Bomb: Survival and Deterrence in North Korea (Hurst Publishers/Oxford University Press, 2020).
A widely published writer, Panda’s work has appeared in the New York Times, the Washington Post, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the Diplomat, the Atlantic, the New Republic, the South China Morning Post, War on the Rocks, Politico, and the National Interest. Panda has also published in scholarly journals, including Survival, the Washington Quarterly, and India Review, and has contributed to the IISS Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment and Strategic Survey. He is editor-at-large at the Diplomat, where he hosts the Asia Geopolitics podcast, and a contributing editor at War on the Rocks.
10. North Korea Just Openly Tested Its First ICBM Since 2017 And It's A Monster
A monster weapon. Maybe the north will do another godzilla-like movie built around this "monster."
North Korea Just Openly Tested Its First ICBM Since 2017 And It's A Monster
The Hwasongpho-17 intercontinental ballistic missile is North Korea's largest and by every indication most capable to date.
North Korea claims to have successfully test-launched a new "super-large" nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile, or ICBM, called the Hwasongpho-17. This is North Korea's largest ICBM design to date and this test saw the missile reach an especially high altitude, with the country's authorities saying it reached a height of 6,248.5 kilometers, or nearly 3,882 miles, before falling into a part of the East Sea within Japan's Exclusive Economic Zone, or EEZ. This is North Korea's first known ICBM test since 2017, a highly provocative act, although one many had predicted was relatively imminent based on Pyonyang's escalating missile tests and rhetoric towards the U.S. and its regional allies.
The launch, which North Korean leader Kim Jong Un attended, took place on Thursday, March 24, 2022, which is now yesterday on the Korean Peninsula. A statement put out through North Korea's state media apparatus included the official recorded height the missile reached and said that it had traveled a lateral distance of 1,090 kilometers, or just over 677 miles, over the course of a flight lasting 4,052 seconds, or 67.5 minutes. These figures are fully in line with the estimates that South Korean and Japanese authorities had put out earlier.
North Korean state media
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, in the black leather jacket and sunglasses at center, walks in front of a Hwasongpho-17 intercontinental ballistic missile on its transporter erector launch prior to the test on March 24, 2022.
North Korea state media
North Korean state media
North Korean state media
North Korea State media
North Korea state media
The North Korean statement did not provide specifics on where the missile impacted, beyond saying it had succeeded in "correctly hitting the target" in the East Sea. "The intercontinental ballistic missile was test-fired vertically in consideration of the security of the neighboring states," it added.
Japanese authorities said the missile landed inside the country's Exclusive Economic Zone in the East Sea. At least one Japanese F-15J Eagle fighter jet was scrambled in response to the launch, along with a P-3C Orion maritime patrol plane. The Japanese Ministry of Defense subsequently released a video, seen below, shot from an F-15J cockpit showing the missile rising.
"This is such an outrageous, unforgivable act," Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, adding that the launch was "reckless" and "unacceptable." South Korean, American, and United Nations officials also denounced the test, which violates a number of U.N. Security Council Resolutions.
Details about the Hwasongpho-17 itself are limited, but it appears to be derived from the earlier Hwasong-15 design and may be known within the U.S. military as the KN-28. Ankit Panda, a Stanton Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and an expert on North Korea's nuclear weapons and missile program, suggested that the first stage of the missile could put out 160 tons of force based on the size and arrangement of the rocket motors, underscoring the design's significant apparent range as demonstrated by this high altitude test.
The Hwasongpho-17 is believed to be a two-stage, liquid-fueled design with an estimated overall length of 26 meters, or just over 85 feet, and a diameter of 2.7 meters, or nearly 9 feet. Its size and design, at least from what can be seen outwardly, raise the possibility that it might be able to carry more than one nuclear warhead in a multiple independently-targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) configuration. In terms of performance, one would imagine that it at least, if not more capable as the previous Hwasong-15, which can reach the United States, among other parts of the world.
The missile, or at least a mockup thereof, first appeared publicly at a parade in 2020, along with its new 11-axle transporter-erector-launcher (TEL). Its name first emerged at a weapons expo in the North Korean capital Pyongyang last year.
North Korean state media
What we now know to be called the Hwasongpho-17, or at least a mockup of it, at a parade in Pyongyang in 2020.
It's unclear how many times North Korea has attempted to test the missile or components thereof. South Korean authorities said that North Korea tried, but failed to test a missile last week. North Korea did not even acknowledge that launch publicly, which is not uncommon after unsuccessful tests. Though we have no way of knowing whether that was also a Hwasongpho-17 test, failures during the development of new missile designs, especially large and complex types like ICBMs, are hardly uncommon.
In addition, North Korea carried out two other test launches on February 27 and March 5 of this year, which it described as being part of the development of "reconnaissance satellites." U.S. officials disputed this and subsequently announced new sanctions in response to what it said were ballistic missile tests. American authorities have accused North Korea, as well as Iran, of leveraging work on space launch rockets of various types to support very long-range ballistic missile development efforts in the past.
Whatever the case, the Hwasongpho-17 follows a string of North Korean tests involving previously unseen hypersonic, ballistic, and cruise missiles of various types since last fall. The test of this particular weapon is clearly intended to signal the country's growing strategic deterrence capabilities, including challenging any remaining doubts about its ability to directly threaten the United States.
North Korean state media
"Steadfast are the strategic choice and determination of our Party and government to strengthen the powerful nuclear war deterrent both in quality and quantity and in a sustainable way for the security of the country and to cope with all crises in the future," the official North Korean statement says. "Possessing the incomparably overwhelming military offensive ability is the most reliable war deterrent, state defense capability."
At the same time, the North Koreans have certainly demonstrated yet another new and significant capability they are developing to hold their enemies around the world at risk.
North Korea state media
Contact the author: joe@thedrive.com
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11. S. Korea holds rare training involving F-35A fighters after N.K. ICBM launch
My snarky comment from the headline is that no training should ever be rare. But I concede that an "elephant walk" is not something air forces should practice every day.
It is good to see the ROK military demonstrate some capabilities. I think a briefing on the many possible targets the F-35 could strike in north Korea would be helpful to the IO effort. Kim must learn that he has no place to hide in the north
(LEAD) S. Korea holds rare training involving F-35A fighters after N.K. ICBM launch | Yonhap News Agency
(ATTN: ADDS photo provided by the defense ministry)
SEOUL, March 25 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's Air Force conducted a rare training involving its F-35A radar-evading fighters in a show of airpower Friday, a day after North Korea test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).
Defense Minister Suh Wook oversaw the "Elephant Walk" training and ordered troops to maintain "full" readiness based on the "invisible power" of the F-35As, the defense ministry said. It did not disclose the training site for security reasons.
The training marked the first major mobilization of the stealth fighters after the Air Force completed the deployment of 40 F-35As in January.
"Using the F-35A stealth fighters, we should maintain a full readiness posture to achieve an overwhelming strategic victory (in any fight) and deter North Korea's additional actions," Suh was quoted as saying.
During the training, heavily-armed F-35A fighters taxied in a large formation along an airfield to check their operational readiness, officials said.
The training is part of efforts to highlight South Korea's deterrence capabilities after Pyongyang test-fired what it claims to be the Hwasong-17 ICBM on Thursday in its 12th known show of force this year.
Soon after the missile launch, South Korea's armed forces also conducted a joint live-fire exercise involving key missiles, like a Hyunmoo-2 ground-to-ground missile and two JDAM air-to-surface missiles.
sshluck@yna.co.kr
(END)
12. Yoon may visit former President Park prior to meeting Moon
This should add to the contentiousness of the presidential transition.
(LEAD) Yoon may visit former President Park prior to meeting Moon | Yonhap News Agency
(ATTN: UPDATES with more info in last para; FIXES 3rd para)
SEOUL, March 25 (Yonhap) -- A highly anticipated meeting between President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol and former President Park Geun-hye appears to be shaping up for sometime next week amid uncertain prospects for his long overdue meeting with President Moon Jae-in.
Park, who was pardoned last December after spending nearly five years in prison over abuse of power and other crimes, left a Seoul hospital and arrived at her new residence in the southeastern city of Daegu on Thursday.
Yoon, known for his unusual relationship with Park dating back to 2017 when he, as a state prosecutor, investigated her corruption allegations, has expressed a wish to visit her before and after being elected new president.
As Yoon is expected to visit Daegu next week to offer thanks to local residents over his election victory, his meeting with Park is expected to take place then, officials said.
By contrast, Yoon's first meeting with Moon has been indefinitely postponed. They had been scheduled to have a one-on-one lunch at Cheong Wa Dae on March 16 in their first meeting since Yoon won the March 9 presidential election. But both sides announced the postponement of the lunch meeting that morning.
They are reportedly at odds over many pending issues, including a pardon of imprisoned former President Lee Myung-bak and reshuffles of high-profile government figures.
Moon's opposition to Yoon's plan to relocate the presidential office from Cheong Wa Dae to the defense ministry compound has further complicated prospects for their meeting.
Sixteen days have passed since the March 9 election and the longest time it takes for an incumbent president to meet a president-elect was 18 days. Unless progress is made soon, that record is likely to be broken.
Yoon's side said it is difficult to attach any special meaning to whomever the president-elect meets first.
"Park was a president who came from our People Power Party. It is very natural for the president-elect to visit and console her. Yoon's meeting with Park is considered human while his meeting with Moon will be a political one," said an official close to the president-elect.
Some political watchers regard Yoon's desire for a meeting with Park as his effort to expand the conservative base by embracing her supporters.
ycm@yna.co.kr
(END)
13. Outgoing power’s obsession with authority over personnel affairs
Frankly speaking this illustrates one of the core problems with the Moon administration.
Outgoing power’s obsession with authority over personnel affairs
Posted March. 25, 2022 07:44,
Updated March. 25, 2022 07:44
Outgoing power’s obsession with authority over personnel affairs. March. 25, 2022 07:44. .
“What negotiations are needed in order for the two of us to exchange greetings and words of advice. It's not like we're negotiating,” South Korean President Moon Jae-in said on Thursday regarding a meeting with President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol. He implied that personnel matters should not be an agenda of or condition to a meeting between the two. The presidential office Cheong Wa Dae said personnel matters are the rights of the president and such rights should not be exercised by the president-elect until the end of the current president’s term. “It is not appropriate for the outgoing president to select people who will work with a new government for a long time,” said Yoon. “Nearing the end of my term, I will work with the next government and do the same.”
The row between the old and new powers over the appointment of the next governor of the Bank of Korea and issues regarding the auditors of the Board of Audit and Inspection is unprecedented. It was customary for an outgoing president to refrain from appointing high-ranking officials once his successor was decided. It is against common sense for the outgoing power to appoint officials who will work with a new government. However, the current government is completely different. It makes you wonder if there was any outgoing power obsessed with authority over personnel matters.
Cheong Wa Dae said it would make a recommendation for one of the two auditor positions that are currently empty. It was reported that the president is very determined. The Board of Audit and Inspection, which deliberates on and votes for audit results, is consisted of a chairman and six auditors who serve for four years. Two out of four auditors, excluding the empty posts, are pro-Moon. In particular, Kim In-hoi jointly wrote a book on prosecution reform with President Moon. Including Chairman Choi Jae-hae, three members of the board are on the president’s side. It seems that the current government thinks it should add one more pro-Moon figure before his retirement to create a four to three structure before the new administration takes office to prepare for inspections of its actions, including the nuclear power phase-out project. It seems clear that the outgoing power’s intention is to protect itself.
The current Moon administration has been engaging in similar behavior even before the presidential election by frequently appointing the heads of diplomatic offices overseas and deploying advisors from Cheong Wa Dae and figures from pro-government civic groups to key posts in public institutions and state-owned companies. According to the People Power Party, 59 people took up posts in public institutions by the current administration’s appointment during the last six months of its term. Seventy-one percent of them will hold their posts until the mid-point of the new administration’s term.
President Moon said he felt frustrated and asked the president-elect to make his own decision without listening to others. “The new administration has a say yet it is treating us very poorly,” said a Cheong Wa Dae advisor. Given the behavior related to personnel matters showcased by Cheong Wa Dae nearing the end of its term, it sounds like they are playing victims with two faces.
14. Give South Korea Nuclear Weapons
At first I thought this was Doug Bandow writing in the Opinion or the Duffel blog. But this is consistent with his ultra isolationist beliefs.
Give South Korea Nuclear Weapons- The American Conservative
Washington must decide whether it is willing to risk national destruction to continue protecting the ROK.
With Russia and Ukraine at war, the situation in Northeast Asia is heating up. North Korea’s Kim Jong-un has launched a dozen missiles so far this year, including one long-range vehicle thought to include components of an ICBM capable of hitting America. Worse, Pyongyang suggested it is prepared to restart ICBM and nuclear tests.
Earlier this month, South Korean voters narrowly elected a hawkish conservative, Yoon Suk-yeol, to replace outgoing progressive President Moon Jae-in. Yoon promised to take a tougher position toward the North, which likely will turn the bilateral relationship actively hostile.
Kim appears to lack interest in engaging with the U.S. After his February 2019 summit with President Donald Trump collapsed, Kim largely ended contact with Washington, ignoring multiple offers from the Biden administration to talk.
In the past, Kim used missile tests to push Washington to negotiate and make concessions. Before returning to diplomacy, he may have decided to bolster his arsenal. At various party gatherings and military parades, Kim has presented lengthy weapons wish lists. Despite his country’s evident economic weakness, Kim’s government has made significant progress on several new weapons systems. The Rand Corporation and Asan Institute provide this ominous assessment:
[B]y 2027, North Korea could have 200 nuclear weapons and several dozen intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and hundreds of theater missiles for delivering the nuclear weapons. The ROK and the United States are not prepared, and do not plan to be prepared, to deal with the coercive and warfighting leverage that these weapons would give North Korea.
In that case, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea would possess an arsenal comparable to those of the world’s second-tier nuclear powers. That would give Kim room to move, offering some weapons in exchange for sanctions relief while retaining enough nukes to deter a U.S. attack. Imagine if the DPRK had 100 weapons and missiles capable of targeting the American homeland. Any U.S. president would hesitate to intervene even in a conventional war on the Korean Peninsula, since North Korea could threaten to shoot unless Washington backed down.
South Koreans have grown more uncomfortable as Pyongyang has developed its nuclear-weapon and missile capacities, though the South Koreans might intuitively understand the limits of extended deterrence. In any case, people in South Korean increasingly want the ability to protect themselves without having to rely on a sometimes-mercurial and even feckless Uncle Sam. After all, if pressed to risk Los Angeles for Seoul, most Americas would naturally say, “No thanks.”
For at least a decade, a majority of South Koreans have favored developing their own nuclear deterrent. Although a plurality still identify the DPRK as the likeliest villain, an increasing number now cite the People’s Republic of China as the greatest future threat to South Korea. More than half of those surveyed figure the PRC will become the most serious danger to South Korea in the coming decade.
The most impressive poll number on this point is a 2021 poll by the Korea Institute for National Unification, which found 71.3 percent of respondents backed acquiring nukes if the North did not abandon its program. And 61.6 percent of those surveyed wanted to keep nuclear weapons even after reunification “as a means of securing sovereignty and survival rights from neighboring powers.” A 2020 Asan Institute survey found 69.3 percent of respondents favored developing an ROK bomb in response to North Korea’s program.
Last month, the Chicago Council for Global Affairs published a detailed study of South Korean support for nuclear armament, finding 71 percent of surveyed South Koreans wanted the country to possess its own nuclear deterrent. The Chicago Council found that “When asked to choose between the two, the public overwhelmingly prefers a domestic weapons program to deployment of [U.S.] nuclear weapons,” adding that “support for both options appears to be insensitive to potential negative repercussions for South Korea’s relations with China, South Korea’s economic security, the alliance with the United States, or hopes for North Korea’s denuclearization.”
The Council found that South Koreans want the bomb even though they believe the U.S. would still protect the South in the event of war, noting that “Confidence that the United States will carry through on alliance commitments is positively associated with support for nuclear weapons, contrary to beliefs that alliance commitment concerns are a main driver of public views on nuclear acquisition.”
Notably, respondents had an overwhelming preference (67 percent to 9 percent) for the South’s own nukes over a return of American tactical nuclear weapons. President-elect Yoon favors the latter. However, so-called extended deterrence is becoming untenable. When the DPRK was only a conventional power, it posed a military threat to the Republic of Korea alone. Extended deterrence was a freebie, allowing Washington to threaten the use of nukes in even a conventional contest. The North’s main deterrent at the time was its conventional threat, especially with artillery and missiles, against the Seoul metropolitan area.
However, as Pyongyang has acquired nuclear weapons and developed ICBMs, the U.S. faces a future in which the DPRK could strike back against the American homeland. Although Washington retains overwhelming military and nuclear strength, North Korea will eventually be able to target U.S. possessions and military bases in the Asia-Pacific, Hawaii, and several mainland cities.
The ROK is a good friend, but the relationship is not worth bringing mass destruction and death to America. The U.S. might even have to reconsider the alliance if Washington were to intervene in a conventional fight on the peninsula that it could not afford to win, lest North Korea use its arsenal, or threaten to do so. Although Kim Jong-un has given no indication that he wants to leave this world atop a radioactive funeral pyre in Pyongyang, he might prefer that to more mundane defeat.
Of course, Washington’s attitude would be critical if Seoul decided to take the nuclear path. In the 1970s, President Park Chung-hee cancelled the ROK’s nuclear program when confronted by the Nixon administration. Having since failed to stop the North’s progress, the U.S. would have little credibility today were it to inveigh against a similar South Korean effort. Washington will likely be reluctant to sanction one of its closest military allies, which it views as playing an important role in constraining China.
Indeed, Beijing’s growing strength suggests Washington should rethink its stance on nuclear proliferation. America’s unusual dominance upon exiting World War II allowed it to play global policeman, at least in regions it cared about. However, that moment is gone. In an increasingly multi-polar world in which the U.S. faces grave economic and military challenges, it cannot afford to continue providing nuclear guarantees to all of its allies.
Moreover, America’s current weapons policy is a bit like domestic gun-control policies—it is most effective in denying weapons to friendly, responsible parties. In the case of nuclear weapons, that means America keeps nukes from democratic, allied states even as bad regimes arm themselves. Forget Iran: Pakistan already has put nukes in the hands of a dangerously unstable state beset by Islamist extremists. India, with its increasingly authoritarian Hindu-nationalist regime, has created a countervailing force. North Korea, too, is a growing nuclear state, despite Washington’s refusal to acknowledge the obvious.
Even before the Russian attack on Ukraine, both Japan and South Korea were increasing military outlays. Given both nations’ concerns about China and DPRK, they should be doing even more than they are. However, the most important constraint on Chinese adventurism would be allowing Tokyo and Seoul to possess small but survivable deterrents.
To be sure, there are downsides to nuclear proliferation. However, Ukrainians noted that if they had used leftover Soviet weapons for their own nuclear program, Moscow would not have invaded. Rather than putting America’s homeland on the line for countries with whom we are friendly but are not vital for U.S. security, allowing them to acquire nuclear weapons would provide them a direct means of defense.
If North Korea forges ahead to create a sizable nuclear arsenal, Washington will have to decide whether it is willing to risk national destruction to continue protecting the ROK. If not, then Washington should contemplate the currently unthinkable—a South Korean nuclear weapon. The South Korean people appear ready to shoulder that responsibility. How would U.S. policymakers respond?
Doug Bandow is a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute. A former Special Assistant to President Ronald Reagan, he is author of several books, including Tripwire: Korea and U.S. Foreign Policy in a Changed World and co-author of The Korean Conundrum: America’s Troubled Relations with North and South Korea.
15. Kim Jong-un stars in wild "Top Gun"-style North Korea missile launch video
Kim Jong-un stars in wild "Top Gun"-style North Korea missile launch video
Newsweek · by Gerrard Kaonga · March 25, 2022
North Korea's Leader, Kim Jong-un, has starred in a Hollywood-esque military video for a missile test launch.
North Korea's state-run television, KCTV, showed the edited footage on Thursday, according to a report by American subscription-based website NK News. The video has also been shared on Twitter.
BREAKING: North Korea's state-run television shows edited footage of Kim Jong Un guiding the test-launch of what the country referred to as the Hwasong-17 ICBM.
— NK NEWS (@nknewsorg) March 25, 2022
The video saw Kim Jong-un, walking out ahead of the Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that was being led out of a hangar.
The North Korean leader, was shown walking between two military officials in his signature black leather jacket and sunglasses in slow motion while dramatic music played.
Kim Jong un appears to oversee the launch of a missile in North Korea's latest propaganda video.
The footage then showed the two generals and Kim Jong-un looking at their watches while the camera cut between them with increasing speed. Kim Jong-un then takes off his glasses in slow motion and gives a small nod.
The military video has been mocked on social media for the choice of style.
What is this, "Reservoir Dogs" or "Top Gun"?
— Kristine Servando (@tinssoldier) March 25, 2022
"What is this, 'Reservoir Dogs' or 'Top Gun'," Bloomberg Asia Deputy Head Kristine Servando wrote on her Twitter.
"Kim Jong-un recently ordered another long-range ICBM test after the hail of other missiles this year.
"And his propaganda team made a mini-movie about it."
NK News also tweeted the countdown launch portion of the video.
During the countdown, the video cuts to generals and soldiers yelling before someone pushes what appears to be the launch button and then the rocket taking off.
NEW: North Korea's state-run television shows the moment the country's military officials count down from 10 before they push what appears to be the launch button for Thursday's ICBM.
— NK NEWS (@nknewsorg) March 25, 2022
NK news also showed the final clip of the military video which showed the reactions of the soldiers, generals and the North Korean leader.
— NK NEWS (@nknewsorg) March 25, 2022
Kim Jong-un and his two generals are then shown pumping their arms in the air while smiling and cheering. The North Korean leader is seen sitting down clapping with a smile on his face.
The video then cuts to soldiers in a field celebrating and hugging one another.
During the launch, Kim Jong-un issued a warning to countries that would threaten its security.
"It is necessary to make clear that whoever tries to infringe upon the security of our state shall pay dearly," Kim reportedly said in the state newspaper Rodong Sinmun, according to the NK News report.
"Our state defense capability will make thorough preparations for long confrontation with U.S. imperialism on the basis of the tremendous military-technical force unflinching even to any military threat and blackmail."
He continued: "[The strategic force of the DPRK [Democratic People's Republic of Korea] is fully ready to thoroughly check and contain any dangerous military attempt of the U.S. imperialists.
"The new strategic weapon of the DPRK will clearly show the might of our strategic force to the whole world once again."
This missile launch was North Korea's first ICBM launch since November 2017. The missile was fired into the Sea of Japan and is said to have achieved a range of around 1,080 kilometers, or roughly 670 miles, and an altitude of 6,200 kilometers, or about 3,850 miles, according to a statement by South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Following this test, South Korea announced that it conducted its own missile test, firing at a target from land, air and sea.
The South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff added that they are "closely watching North Korea's military movements."
They warned that South Korea's forces "have the ability and posture to precisely strike the origin of the missile launch and command and support facilities at any time.
The statement also condemned its rival's actions as a "serious challenge to the ROK (Republic of Korea) and ROK-US alliance," while North Korea is "refusing to offer dialogue to the international community."
Update 03/25/22 7:40 a.m. ET: This article has been updated to include additional information.
Newsweek · by Gerrard Kaonga · March 25, 2022
16. Chrome Zero-Day Vulnerability: North Korean Hackers Bring Threats to US Targets, Same One in Past Years
The all purpose sword at work.
Chrome Zero-Day Vulnerability: North Korean Hackers Bring Threats to US Targets, Same One in Past Years
Google Chrome is facing another zero-day vulnerability hack that North Korean threat actors imposed against its US targets, and many services face the effect of this dispute. There are beliefs that this zero-day is interconnected with past hacks that researchers attribute to North Korea, all serving under one entity of hacking the US systems.
Google Chrome: New Zero-Day Vulnerability is from North Korea
(Photo : Unsplash/Joan Gamell)
Hacker
Google's Threat Analysis Group (TAG) discovered a new zero-day vulnerability on its Chrome web browser. The company said it is similar to past hacks they saw in their systems. The internet company said that this is possibly a North Korean-backed organization that successfully got into their systems.
The company is now fighting against it, focusing on bringing a massive upgrade that will stop the hackers from fully accessing its systems from the many threats they get here. The latest Chrome package is affected by this zero-day vulnerability, and Google is working on ways to keep its systems safe from attack.
Chrome's Zero Day Vulnerability is Interconnected
(Photo : NICOLAS ASFOURI/AFP via Getty Images)
In this file photo taken on August 04, 2020, Prince, a member of the hacking group Red Hacker Alliance who refused to give his real name, uses a website that monitors global cyberattacks on his computer at their office in Dongguan, China's southern Guangdong province. - As the number of online devices surges and super-fast 5G connections roll out.
There are suspicions that the new zero-day is interconnected with different accessibilities from the North Korean hackers, including Operation Dream Job and Operation AppleJeus. According to Clear Sky, this is a direct indication that massive entities are at play here, with a single organization executing these hacks to put users at risk.
Zero-Day Vulnerability of Google's System
There are many zero-day vulnerabilities from Google Chrome's system, and it is the target of many hackers that impose these kinds of threats as many people utilize the browser from the company. There has been a recent patch that focused on updating the Chrome's security as it is the target of the vulnerability that if users do not use, they will be a part of the many harmful repercussions.
Most of the time, the threat actors focus on the usual web browsers that many people use, and the companies offer protection from this, but many conduct their access to the systems. Moreover, zero-days may sometimes be unseen by regular users as they are underlying, and the use of the system will guarantee access to their accounts or devices.
Google Chrome is one of the many targets of zero-day vulnerabilities, and there have been a lot that the internet company did to fight against these hackers. North Korea's team is massive, and the hacks are significant as the access sometimes goes undetected, with Google noticing it and fighting against it, all under one alleged scheme.
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Written by Isaiah Richard
ⓒ 2021 TECHTIMES.com All rights reserved. Do not reproduce without permission.
17. Kim Jong Un’s Latest Missile Test Officially Puts America ‘At Risk’
Comments from a number of us.
Kim Jong Un’s Latest Missile Test Officially Puts America ‘At Risk’
TOO CLOSE FOR COMFORT
The banned Hwasong 17 could technically land anywhere on American soil.
Updated Mar. 24, 2022 3:59PM ET / Published Mar. 24, 2022 2:42PM ET
Photo Illustration by Luis G. Rendon/The Daily Beast/Getty/Reuters
North Korea’s test Thursday of its newest, strongest intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) has exposed the weakness of U.S. defense against the North’s growing ability to explode a warhead anywhere in America.
By test-firing a Hwasong 17 from a site dangerously close to Pyongyang, the North challenged the U.S. to fire back with more than just diplomatic verbiage and act quickly on figuring out ways to shoot down missiles that could land anywhere on U.S. soil.
“A multiple warhead ICBM risks overwhelming the limited number of missile interceptors deployed in Alaska and California,” said Bruce Klingner, a former CIA analyst with the Heritage Foundation in Washington. The impact, he told The Daily Beast, is “putting the American homeland at risk, overwhelming the limited number of missile interceptors deployed in Alaska and California.”
The latest ICBM shot broke a longstanding moratorium on testing long-range missiles of nuclear warheads. It has also proven that recent South Korean efforts to bring about reconciliation with North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un have failed. North Korea’s last previous test of an ICBM, in the guise of a satellite, was in November 2017, and its sixth and last nuclear test was two months earlier.
This time around, the North did not pretend the ICBM, which landed 670 miles away in waters near the large northern Japanese island of Hokkaido, was just a satellite. Dropping the satellite cover “speaks volumes about Pyongyang’s belief that the Russia-Ukraine war and escalating tensions between the U.S. and China have distracted the United States,” said Evans Revere, former senior North Korea watcher at the U.S. embassy in Seoul and Washington. North Korea now has “a window of opportunity to carry out a major advance in its ICBM capabilities with minimum risk.”
The missile shot set off alarm bells in Japan. It was, said Nobuo Kishi, defense minister, a “new class” of missile, much stronger than the Hwasong 15 fired by North Korea in 2017.
North Korea showed off the long-range thrust of the Hwasong 17, paraded in Pyongyang in October 2020 flaunting multiple launchers, by firing its latest version 3,850 miles into the atmosphere.
U.S. counter-missile defense is iffy at best.
By flattening the arc, the missile is assumed to be able to land anywhere in the U.S. Even “the Hwasong-15 proved a range that could hit the U.S.,” said Bruce Bechtol, former analyst at the Pentagon and author of numerous books and articles on the North’s defenses. “So, yes, the North Koreans have that capability and have had it since at least 2017.”
But defending against them won’t be easy. “Can these missiles be shot down?,” Bechtol asked rhetorically in an email exchange with The Daily Beast. “One would think the answer is yes with our ballistic missile defense if only one missile was fired.” But “if the North Koreans were to send a volley, say six missiles all at once or even more, that shoot-down capability becomes significantly more difficult.”
Not that the U.S. isn’t trying.
“Ground based interceptors in Alaska are positioned to defend against this threat,” said David Maxwell, a retired U.S. army special forces officer with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington. “We have had some good test results.”
“His goal is to become accepted as a nuclear weapons state.”
He doubted, however, if the North would stop testing just because the U.S. has managed, at tremendous expense, to conduct successful counter-missile tests. “I do not think a missile test by us will have any deterrent effect on Kim Jong Un,” he told The Daily Beast. “If Kim Jong Un thinks he must attack the US with an ICBM, he is going to do it however successful our tests have been.”
Analysts doubted, though, if Kim Jong Un was ready to go beyond showing off the North’s potential.
“Kim's intention is not to launch a nuclear war,” said David Straub, a former U.S. diplomat in Seoul. “His goal is to become accepted as a nuclear weapons state, that is, to keep and increase his nuclear weapons while seeing the international community drop sanctions against him, and then eventually to use his nuclear threat to undermine, first, the U.S.-South Korean alliance, and, second, the South Korean state.”
But, he added, “In the very unlikely event that Kim launched an ICBM against the United States or its allies, the United States would shoot it down, and much more besides.”
The question, though, is whether North Korean engineers and physicists have yet figured out how to fit a warhead to the tip of a missile. “We do not know if they miniaturized a nuclear warhead,” said Maxwell. “We know they have been working toward this. We have to assume they are on the path to produce one.”
People watch a TV at the Seoul Railway Station showing a file image of a North Korean missile launch, on September 15, 2021 in Seoul, South Korea. The unidentified type of missiles were fired from central inland areas of the North on Wednesday afternoon, and the South Korean and the U.S. intelligence authorities are analyzing details for additional information, the JCS said in a release.
Photo by Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images
While the White House and State Department were going through ritualistic condemnations of the test, South Korea responded with a display of its own prowess by test-firing missiles capable of hitting targets anywhere in North Korea.
Within hours after reporting the North had launched the ICBM, the South’s joint military staff announced tests of ground, sea and air missiles. South Korea has rarely if ever conducted all three types of tests in rapid succession, but South Korea’s military command said it wanted to show it was ready and able to attack North Korean test sites.
The drills sent “a clear counterforce message to North Korea,” said South Korea’s Yonhap news agency.
South Korea’s outgoing President Moon Jae-in, frustrated in attempts at reopening dialogue with Kim Jong Un, presumably authorized the test, which he condemned in a formal statement. His efforts have been strongly opposed by President elect Yoon Suk-yeol, who has promised to rebuild strong ties with the U.S. while joining in calls for denuclearization.
The U.S. charge d’affaires in South Korea, Christopher Del Corso, said the U.S. and South Korea shared “the common goal of complete denuclearization,” but did not suggest how they would go about dealing with the North.
Nor could the U.S. expect real support elsewhere. Victor Cha, in charge of North Korea issues at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said the “normal reflex'' would be to seek a UN Security Council Resolution, but he doubted if Russia and China would go along in view of the war in Ukraine and ongoing problems between the U.S. and China.
Sue Mi Terry, director for Korea at the Wilson Center in Washington, was not optimistic. In a panel staged by CSIS, she said she expected more such tests. “I’m afraid we’re at the beginning of this phase,” she said. “I expect more provocations.”
Testing missiles, though, carries perils. In its latest previous test, on March 16, a North Korean missile exploded about 20 kilometers up in the air after being launched from the Sunan site near Pyongyang.
“Multiple witnesses” in Pyongyang saw it happen, according to NK News, a website in Seoul that tracks North Korea.
“Debris fell in or near Pyongyang,” NK News reported, citing an image showing “a red-tinted ball of smoke at the end of a zig-sagging rocket launch trail in the sky” and “smaller trails” appearing “to extend straight down toward the ground.”
V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
