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Wet, Windy, & Wild in West County
PREP DAY
We are all closely watching the forecasts for the coming storms. With the ground saturated from prior rain and the rivers and creeks already high, flooding is likely — both from creeks overflowing their banks, as well as from the main stem of the Russian River.
In addition to flooding, saturated soils will allow for trees to topple more easily. We are anticipating that high winds will blow down trees and impact power lines, leading to potentially widespread power outages. Travel may be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Plan to stay safe at home during the peak of the storm if at all possible. (More tips on this below.) And please prepare today! Today is our last dry window for a while. It’s a perfect day to grab some of the sand bags we’ve made available at the Forestville fire station, Monte Rio fire station, or Sonoma Landworks in Guerneville. It’s also a good day to check your generator, or to double-check to make sure you’ve got enough food and medication.
STORM PROGRESS
The storm is expected to begin with a warmer front involving light precipitation Wednesday morning. As the day progresses, southerly winds will pick up, with gusts between 40 and 60 mph — and stronger gusts in higher ridges and peaks. Per today’s National Weather Service Bay Area Forecast Discussion, “These winds combined with already saturated soils will likely result in downed trees/limbs causing isolated to scattered power outages as well as potential property damage… Rainfall through midday Wednesday will be greatest in the coastal ranges.”
Mid to late Wednesday, the cold front and atmospheric river should arrive in the North Bay, bringing with it heavy rainfall. Per NWS, “confidence remains high for widespread substantial rainfall over the coastal ranges on the order of 3.00"-6.00" with isolated amounts up to 8.00" through Thursday. Meanwhile, most urban areas will pick up 1.00"-3.00" with higher amounts of up to 5.00" in the North Bay… forecast rainfall over already saturated soils will result in widespread flooding impacts region-wide. Of greatest concern will be flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. This will also result in extensive street flooding in portions of the Bay Area and Central Coast. Additionally, these conditions will also lead to an increased threat for widespread shallow landslides.”
RUSSIAN RIVER FLOOD RISK
The latest NOAA forecast as of 3PM today has the Russian River cresting late Thursday night/early Friday morning at 35.4’ in Guerneville. This is more than three feet above flood stage (which is 32’ in Guerneville).
Of perhaps greater concern is next week, with the possibility of two additional atmospheric rivers coming on the heels of this large storm. While models are much less accurate for next week, preliminary forecasts suggest that the Russian River may crest near 39’ in Guerneville on Monday.
BIGGEST RISKS
We’ve all been through some pretty big floods together, and we’ve always pulled together and pulled through! And I know we will this time. But this is the first time in recent memory that we’re expecting flood conditions accompanied by winds that could exceed 60mph. Public safety professionals are recommending that residents avoid being outside in forested areas and around trees and branches during the height of the windstorm. If possible, remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if you must drive. And remember — turn around, don’t drown! We *will* experience flooded roadways from this storm. If you wind up cut off from home by a creek flowing over a road, call a friend. Don’t try to drive through a flooded roadway and endanger your life — as well as the lives of first responders.
Stay safe, y’all. If you need anything please email our team at District5@sonoma-county.org.
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