Commenting on the prisoner exchange that got American basketball star Brittney Griner released from Russian prison, Mikhail Troitskiy says what Putin got in return was the “honor and prestige” of getting back Victor Bout, who Simon Saradzhyan thinks likely ran his large smuggling ring with Russian government cooperation. Also in the news is Latvia’s revocation of the self-exiled dissident Russian channel TV Rain’s license, which Maria Snegovaya says illustrates how exiled dissidents walk a messaging tightrope between Russian and EU/Ukrainian audiences. For Konstantin Sonin, frustration at TV Rain is understandable, but anti-war Russians are still “natural allies and help for defenders of Ukraine.”

A new PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo by Sophie Lambroschini addresses Ukraine’s critical infrastructure resilience, arguing it stems from the country’s technological and economic history, social background, and Soviet and post-Soviet experience with crises and state service. On Ukrainian resilience more broadly, a new book by Olga Onuch and Henry Hale links it first and foremost to Ukrainians’ sense of civic national identity and duty. And with friends and relatives dispersed by war, Kristina Hook and Oleksandra Gaidai write that homemade meals from strangers are weaving new surrogate family ties among Ukrainians.

The rapidly evolving war makes it impossible to calculate Ukraine’s actual military and humanitarian needs, says Samuel Charap, but “every little bit helps.” For Pavel Baev, it is not a surprise that the price ceiling for sea-transported Russian oil was enforced, demonstrating the Western coalition’s commitment to undercutting Russia’s war effort.

Kirill Rogov identifies three categories of war supporters in Russia: all-in Putin-cult warriors, a less ideological segment that buys the Kremlin’s “just war” propaganda, and conformists who aren’t convinced by official lines but see themselves as patriots. For Gulnaz Sharafutdinova, the empowerment of Putin loyalists who command their own forces (like Prigozhin and Kadyrov) does not bode well for stability in Russia. Marlene Laruelle warns, though, that Russia’s disintegration will not solve the West’s “Russia problem,” arguing re-federalization and local self-government are better outcomes.

The entire Putin system is paying careful attention to managing public opinion, argues Nikolay Petrov, who analyzes a series of “triumphant interviews” by Russia’s Federal Customs Service leaders. And Richard Arnold sees Putin’s meeting with select mothers of mobilized soldiers as a carefully stage-managed display of presidential sympathy designed to bolster his credibility. Petrov also argues the war’s roots lie in Crimea: Putin’s commitment to taking and keeping it with Zelensky’s insistence on its return to Ukraine. Ayşe Zarakol focuses on the deep historical roots of Russian autocracy, finding Ivan the Terrible’s practices “perhaps a combination of the centralizing power of the Mongols with the Christian persecution of divergent practices, paranoia about witchcraft, and so on.”

On other topics, Nargis Kassenova finds China provides aid to Central Asian leaders in ways that promote strong interpersonal ties with them, unlike Western aid. And as former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili claims he is being abused in prison, Kornely Kakachia warns that if “something bad” were to happen it would threaten Georgia’s democracy and international image.