Quotes of the Day:
"Men stay silent in Russia, but the stones speak, in pitiful accents. No wonder the Russians fear and neglect their old buildings, for these bear witness to the history that they would prefer, more often than not, to forget."
- Marquis de Custine
"It isn't enough to talk about peace. One must believe in it. And it isn't enough to believe in it. One must work at it."
- Eleanor Roosevelt
A dead soldier who has given his life because of the failure of his leader is a dreadful sight before God. Like all dead soldiers, he was tired before he died, and undoubtedly dirty, and possibly frightened to his soul and there is on top of all that . . . Never again to see his homeland. Don’t be the leader who failed to instruct him properly, who failed to lead him well. Burn the midnight oil, that you may not in later years look at your hands and find his blood still red upon them.
- James Warner Bellah, former Army officer and author of Western stories
1. A 91-year-old North Korean loyalist’s lonely battle against a long-dead U.S. general
2. Yoon says N. Korea could carry out provocations while U.S. is focused on Ukraine
3. Three Potential Whistleblowers Drop Dead in Vicious Presidential Race in South Korea
4. Chinese blogger charged with insulting Korean War dead
5. Kim Jong Un besieged by crowd of North Korean soldiers at farm opening
6. Japan and South Korea in row over mines that used forced labour
7. North Korea’s accelerated nuclear ambitions
8. We must not allow North Korea's crimes to slip off the radar
9. UN special rapporteur meets with relatives of victims of North
10. Calls growing to embrace nuclear energy amid surging energy costs, Ukraine uncertainty
11. China Has Nurtured Dangerous North Korea
12. Why North Korea's Missiles Are a Growing Threat to US Military Bases
1. A 91-year-old North Korean loyalist’s lonely battle against a long-dead U.S. general
The complex history that provides insights into the politics and culture of Korea.
A 91-year-old North Korean loyalist’s lonely battle against a long-dead U.S. general
INCHEON, South Korea — During the Korean War, Ahn Hag-sub was a devoted 22-year-old communist serving in a North Korean militia unit. Seven decades later, he still hates the Americans, and their wartime leader, Gen. Douglas MacArthur.
At age 91, he says his last act of resistance against MacArthur will be lighting on fire a statue of the general that has stood in Incheon since 1957.
“MacArthur is the enemy of our people,” Ahn said in an interview at his home near Incheon, a South Korean port city located an hour’s drive west of Seoul. Ahn has lived there since the late 1990s, when he was released from a South Korean prison on humanitarian grounds, after spending 40 years behind bars. “I will resist for as long as I can,” he added, tightening his lips.
In South Korea, declaring loyalty to North Korea — as Ahn did, something he still refuses to rescind — is a serious national security crime that can land violators in prison for life.
As a free man, Ahn joined a small but dedicated far-left nationalist group calling itself the Peace Treaty Movement. (It’s with several younger colleagues in that group that Ahn said he’d set alight the MacArthur statue.) The movement’s dislike of MacArthur, who died in 1964, reflects a minority opinion in South Korea, but a heated one.
At a time when the statues of historical figures are being reexamined (and in some cases removed) in the United States and Britain, they are trying to bring attention to a debate over this pivotal — and foreign — figure in modern South Korea’s history.
South Koreans with similar views to Ahn’s see MacArthur as a ruthless commander whose forces killed Korean civilians. MacArthur’s statue should be removed, they say, and sent to the war museum in Seoul. Or, better, it should be dismantled.
They also blame MacArthur for installing pro-Japan collaborators in positions of power in the early days of South Korea after World War II, instead of punishing them. That stance was aired last summer by Lee Jae-myung, a left-leaning South Korean candidate running in the country’s presidential elections on March 9, who was criticized for his remarks. But very few have sought action against the statue, or other monuments marking U.S. contributions to South Korea.
Many South Koreans view MacArthur as a godsend who saved their country twice: first from Japan, which ruled Korea until 1945, and then from North Korea, which invaded the South in 1950 and was repelled by allied forces led by the American general. To them, MacArthur’s statue is a symbol of patriotism that should be left alone.
In the summer of 1950, U.S. and allied forces were cornered and outnumbered by more experienced North Korean troops on the southeastern edge of the Korean Peninsula, on the brink of defeat.
Then MacArthur launched a successful surprise amphibious attack on Incheon, which was at the time behind the North Korean front line. His victory cut off North Korean supply lines and forced their retreat.
Although MacArthur has become a symbol of “rampant American imperialism” to his Korean critics, the Incheon landing was a brilliant tactical maneuver that turned the tide of the Korean War, said Jean H. Lee, a senior fellow at the Wilson Center in Washington.
The city has a museum solely dedicated to MacArthur’s 1950 victory. A portside street, several restaurants and at least one advertising firm in the city are named after him. Jamie Romak, a Canadian who played for Incheon’s pro baseball team, the Landers, dressed up as MacArthur for the 2019 KBO League All-Star Game, earning himself a warm ovation from local fans.
And then, of course, there is the statue of the general, which has stood overlooking the Yellow Sea since 1957 from a hilltop park next to Incheon’s harbor, just several hundred feet from the beaches where American and allied troops landed 72 years ago.
In addition to protesting the MacArthur statue, Ahn’s Peace Treaty Movement advocates the removal of the 28,500 American troops who are still stationed in South Korea to help deter a North Korean attack — something the Kim regime has also demanded for decades, even as Pyongyang enhances its nuclear arsenal.
The movement’s leader, Lee Mahn-jeok, is a self-proclaimed Christian preacher who was jailed for pouring fuel on the MacArthur statue and setting it ablaze in 2018, leaving burn marks on it. (Ahn says he couldn’t participate then because of poor health.)
Lee, who lives just a few doors away from Ahn’s home, has helped take care of Ahn since his release from jail 27 years ago. Lee and Ahn both say they know the bronze MacArthur statue cannot be burned down. Its removal seems unlikely, too.
“But we want the burning to serve as a symbol of our struggle,” Lee said. “There’s no need to keep the statue there.”
Read more:
2. Yoon says N. Korea could carry out provocations while U.S. is focused on Ukraine
It is of course possible and this could be a logical assessment. But we should ask what effects would Kim be trying to achieve? The regime will not conduct a provocation just because of the distraction of Ukraine. It will seek to exploit the distraction but it will be to achieve some effect and that is what we must seek to discern.
Yoon says N. Korea could carry out provocations while U.S. is focused on Ukraine | Yonhap News Agency
SEOUL, Feb. 20 (Yonhap) -- Main opposition presidential candidate Yoon Suk-yeol said Sunday North Korea could undertake provocations, like missile launches, while the United States is distracted by tensions in Ukraine as he called for ensuring watertight security posture with the U.S.
"As the U.S. focuses on Europe, among others, North Korea may carry out a strategic provocation like an intercontinental ballistic missile test, or a local provocation near the border," Yoon of the conservative People Power Party wrote on his Facebook page.
"To prepare for a contingency, we need to build a watertight combined defense posture between South Korea and the U.S., and strengthen the extended deterrence capable of responding to nuclear and missile threats from North Korea," he said.
Yoon also called for urgent measures to ensure the safety of South Koreans in Ukraine and to cope with possible negative impacts that the crisis could have on the South Korean economy, such as oil price rises.
"The Ukraine crisis is not something that has nothing to do with us," he said. "What's urgent is the safety of our people remaining in Ukraine. The government should immediately come up with measures to ensure their safety."
As of Thursday, there were 74 South Koreans still staying in Ukraine.
(END)
3. Three Potential Whistleblowers Drop Dead in Vicious Presidential Race in South Korea
Complex internal domestic ROK politics.
Three Potential Whistleblowers Drop Dead in Vicious Presidential Race in South Korea
THREE STRIKES
One of the front-runners to become the next president of South Korea has been linked to a series of extraordinary scandals, but the witnesses keep disappearing.
Updated Feb. 20, 2022 5:41AM ET / Published Feb. 19, 2022 7:36PM ET
Bloomberg
SEONGNAM, South Korea—Three potential whistleblowers are dead in “mafia”-linked scandals threatening to engulf one of the two leading contenders in a tight race to become South Korea’s next president.
The ruling party’s candidate for the top job is suspected of profiting immensely from a multi-million-dollar real estate swindle, which allegedly included members of organized crime in his hometown of Seongnam.
Three men who may have had access to damning information about Lee Jae-myung’s murky past as mayor of Seongnam have dropped dead in little more than two months.
Just weeks before the crucial presidential election, a veil of silence has descended on this sprawling city on the southern fringes of metropolitan Seoul.
Family members of the three executives who carried with them the secrets of a massive real estate deal have not spoken publicly, and other insiders have gone quiet.
“People are afraid to talk,” Jang Young-ha, a lawyer who has followed Lee for years, told The Daily Beast.
Aides to Lee, who was mayor of this glittering city of one million people for nearly eight years, denounced as “fake news” any relationship between him, as well as the mysterious deaths and the movement of hundreds of millions of dollars into secret coffers.
Supporters await the arrival of presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung in Seoul, South Korea.
Chung Sung-Jun/Getty
What is definitely not manufactured, however, is the startling fact that two of the top people at the Seongnam Development Corporation committed suicide in December just before they were to be interrogated for their roles in bribes related to the massive real estate project over which Lee held sway. Then, last month, a third man died of a heart attack after saying that a local company had forked over enormous sums to cover Lee’s legal fees in an entirely different case, in which he was accused of lying when he denied having anything to do with his older brother committed to a mental hospital years ago.
Lee, while in office here from 2010 to 2018, had the power to order the purchase of land at low prices for a development project and then parcel it out as joint public-private property. “As mayor he had a lot of authority,” said Jang.
At issue is what became of the profits of around one hundred million dollars, accrued by an asset management company that took over the project without having to compete for the bid. The government has spurned all demands for an investigation which the opposition People Power Party believes would point to Lee. The presidential candidate has not been charged and denies any complicity in the deal.
The cases, in which Lee’s involvement is suspected but not proved, are transfixing a city that’s mushroomed over the past 30 years as a centrally planned project bringing new wealth into a suburb whose citizenry once existed on the margins of poverty. In one generation, say those who’ve watched Seongnam’s rapid rise, it’s attracted gangsters known locally as “the mafia” thanks to the Godfather films and a ton of other American crime movies that proliferate on Korean TVs and computers.
Local mafiosi may have nothing to do with any international crime organization, but “the Seongnam mafia,” like criminal organizations everywhere, exists on bribes, payoffs and favors while enriching themselves from internet sports gambling, said to be their primary source of income. To locals here, the hand of the mafia is seen in those three deaths and in threats that are fearful enough to breed its own omerta or code of silence.
“The mafia hold the power here. They were the only ones who can do these things.”
After Lee became governor of Gyeonggi Province, which surrounds the capital of Seoul and the port city of Incheon, “suspicions were raised” that he “was involved in a gangster organization,” JoongAng Ilbo, one of Korea’s major national newspapers, reported. The paper said the organization was named “Gukje Mafia”—“gukje” meaning “international”—and was based in Seongnam.
“Does the name contain the desire to start from the local area and influence politics and business like the Mafia?” the article asked, implying that the influence of the mafia may be extending well beyond the Seongnam city limits. A member of the National Assembly, the paper reported, dared link him to the gang, saying at a hearing, “You cannot cover the sky with your palm, the substance is clear.”
Lee, roundly denying any such links, asked the politician to apologize and resign.
One businessman who knows the city well said the need for silence could easily have led to two men taking their own lives rather than tell all to prosecutors hot on the trail of a scandal that could end up leading all the way to the presidential compound.
“The mafia hold the power here,” said the Seongnam insider who asked not to be named. “They were the only ones who can do these things.”
“They can tell these men, we will kill your family, your wife, your kids,” he told The Daily Beast as the restaurant manager poured another shot of soju from the bottle beside him. “They may live in jail, but the mafia will blame them for anything they say and take revenge.”
Three of the people who spoke to The Daily Beast readily identified themselves, exchanging name cards with me after I told them I was a journalist, but the understanding was I would not reveal anyone’s identity. In conversations here, “sensitivities” is the watch word. Whether from concern about joining any contentious political debate or worries about retribution or vengeance, people talk on condition of anonymity.
Lee presents himself as a poor man’s friend while heading a highly funded campaign against the conservative candidate of the People Power Party, Yoon Suk-yeol. He has denied knowing those who died and professed no knowledge of what they did.
Yoon Suk-yeol, presidential candidate of South Korea's main opposition People Power Party.
Chung Sung-Jun/Getty
The scandal, attracting media attention across South Korea, is threatening to drag him down as polls show him faltering in a neck-and-neck campaign leading to the presidential election on March 9.
Lee is a close ally of the incumbent President Moon Jae-in, who cannot run for a second five-year term under Korea’s constitution. He would intensify Moon’s quest for reconciliation and dialogue with North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un, including a joint agreement with the U.S., China and the two Koreas declaring the Korean War, which ended in 1953 in an armed truce, not a peace treaty, is over.
His opponent, Yoon espouses a return to a hardline policy, calling for “rebuilding” frayed relations with the U.S. while demanding the North give up its nuclear program as a prerequisite for any deal with the North.
It’s the local mafia, not North Korea, however, that inspires fear here.
What happened to the vast sums of money generated by the project is the topic of much speculation, but what’s known is that the two men who killed themselves, Kim Moon-gi and Yu Han-ki, both worked for the Seongnam Development Corporation. Three others are behind bars, including the top guy at the corporation, Yoo Dong-kyu, plus an investor and a lawyer. Yoo “was arrested at an early stage,” said Jang. “That’s why he cannot commit suicide.”
As for Lee Byung-chul, the third person who died, he’s said to have been a whistleblower who might have blabbed to prosecutors voluntarily. He severely embarrassed Lee Jae-myung’s team by releasing transcripts of phone conversations with a lawyer talking about the huge fees paid for defending Lee Jae-myung
Having vowed via social media that he would never commit suicide, Lee Byung-chul was reported missing for three days before his body was discovered in a motel room. Police said he had died of a heart attack, but there was no autopsy and he’s rumored to have been poisoned.
“I don’t think he died of a heart attack,” Kang Yong-seok,” an attorney and media personality, told the Daily Beast. “One week before, he didn’t have any symptoms from any disease.” Kang, a colorful, controversial talk show panelist and host, yaks openly about the implications of the case. The other two “were induced to commit suicide,” he said. “Lee has a lot of hidden money.”
“After the election, if he fails, he will go to jail.”
Besides denying anything to do with the deaths of those three men who might have implicated him in the real estate case, Lee Jae-myung has had to fend off charges of abuse of an older brother, Lee Jae-sun, in which Lee and his wife tried to force him into a psychiatric hospital. Jae-sun, an accountant, had infuriated Jae-myung, when he was mayor, by claiming corruption in the real estate project.
Jang Young-ha himself has run as a conservative for mayor of Seongnam and remains a force in political debate. He’s best known these days for a book, written in Korean, “Good-by Lee Jae-Myung,” exposing Lee’s campaign against his brother, who died in 2017. The book, a best-seller here, describes Lee and his wife continually harassing the brother, often in abusive language, after he dared to criticize him publicly. A judge in Seoul district court rejected a demand by Lee’s Democratic Party to ban the book.
“If Lee becomes president, he will use [the presidency] as a weapon,” Jang told The Daily Beast.
Lee needs to win, say locals, so that he can appoint prosecutors who will be sure not to pursue the charges against him.
Kang Yong-seok spoke more frankly. Lee’s organization “is mostly criminal,” he said. “After the election, if he fails, he will go to jail.”
4. Chinese blogger charged with insulting Korean War dead
Chinese blogger charged with insulting Korean War dead
A popular figure on Chinese social media has been arrested on charges he insulted soldiers who froze to death during a Korean War battle.
Luo Changping referred to Chinese soldiers known as the Ice Sculpture Company as the “Sand Sculpture Company”, or “Stupid Company” in internet slang, on his Sina Weibo account.
Luo’s case was handed to prosecutors in his southern hometown of Sanya in January, state TV reported. It gave no indication when he might stand trial.
The Ice Sculpture Company were soldiers who froze to death during a battle with US-led United Nations forces at Chosin Reservoir in November and December 1950.
Temperatures are estimated to have fallen as low as minus 40C.
Luo has some two million followers online, according to China Central Television.
He is accused of “insulting and slandering” war heroes, which is “blatant opposition to and trampling on core socialist values and patriotism”, CCTV said on its website.
It gave no details of possible penalties, but other news reports cited the Law on the Protection of Heroes and Martyrs.
The law allows for prosecution or lawsuits against people accused of hurting the reputation of war veterans, but gives no specific penalties.
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5. Kim Jong Un besieged by crowd of North Korean soldiers at farm opening
More evidence of the cult of the Kim family regime.
Kim Jong Un besieged by crowd of North Korean soldiers at farm opening
Kim Jong Un is besieged by huge crowd of North Korean soldiers and officials as he waves from sunroof of his luxury car at groundbreaking ceremony for greenhouse farm
- North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un was mobbed by a huge crowd at a ceremony
- He was attending an event to mark the start of construction of a huge farm
- The Ryonpho Greenhouse Farm in South Hamgyong province will be 250 acres
- North Korea has faced continued food shortages in part because of sanctions
PUBLISHED: 06:59 EST, 19 February 2022 | UPDATED: 19:27 EST, 19 February 2022
Daily Mail · by Chris Matthews For Mailonline · February 19, 2022
North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un was mobbed by a huge crowd as he attended an opening ceremony for the construction of a greenhouse farm.
The supreme leader of North Korea opened construction of the project as he hailed attempts to modernise agriculture in the country.
Kim Jong-Un, who is thought to be 38, was the first to thrust a shovel into the earth to mark the start of creating the Ryonpho Greenhouse Farm in Hamju County, in South Hamgyong province.
North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un was surrounded by a large crowd as he waved from a car at the opening ceremony of a huge farm
The Supreme Leader helped shift the first soil at the Ryonpho Greenhouse Farm in Hamju County, in South Hamgyong province
Kim Jong Un, who is thought to be 38, said the greenhouse farm would prove a vital food source
A general view of the ground-breaking ceremony for construction of Ryonpho Greenhouse Farm
The farm will be 250 acres and will take eight months to finish. The ceremony included fireworks, explosions and a tractor display.
Kim said the massive greenhouse would prove essential to providing the east coast with vegetables.
He also hailed the need to modernise agriculture for rural development.
It comes amid continued food shortages and economic troubles for the so-called Hermit Kingdom.
The opening ceremony included explosions and fireworks and was seemingly attended by thousands of people
Tractors were on show in front of explosions during the opening ceremony for the construction of the Ryonpho Greenhouse Farm
North Koreans waving flags watched on as the explosions marked the start of construction
Just last month the dictator penned a letter to North Korea’s Union of Agricultural Workers requesting farmers stop selling food on the black market.
Pyongyang also confirmed the Ministry of Agriculture would be reorganised into an Agricultural Commission.
Experts suggested the move was similar to Chinese attempts to boost the economy in the 1980s with large state-funded projects as opposed to creating subsidies to incentivise farmers.
Kim Jong Un addressed the crowd before he took the first shovel to the earth
The ceremony was attended by other top North Korean military officials as well as the Supreme Leader of the so-called Hermit Kingdom
North Korea has faced massive food shortages and usually relies heavily on support from China
North Korea’s economy has struggled following international sanctions over its testing of nuclear weapons.
The country’s mountainous landscape is largely unsuitable for farming and as such North Korea relies heavily on imports from China.
Border closures owing to Covid during the pandemic meant this food source was cut off.
Daily Mail · by Chris Matthews For Mailonline · February 19, 2022
6. Japan and South Korea in row over mines that used forced labour
How can the US help reduce ROK-japan friction to support trilateral national security when faced with these seemingly intractable issues? I am gratified to see that improved trilateral cooperation as one of the major lines of effort for our new INDOPACIFC strategy but issues likes this make it hard.
Japan and South Korea in row over mines that used forced labour
Seoul furious at Japanese bid for Unesco listing for Sado gold mine complex, which used slave labour in the 1940s
Japan has set itself on a diplomatic collision course with South Korea by applying for Unesco world heritage status for gold and silver mines on an island off its west coast which used forced labour from Korea.
The row over the mines – on Sado island in the Sea of Japan – is expected to further sour relations between the countries just as the US is pressing them to present a united front against North Korea’s nuclear programme.
The mines are among dozens of industrial sites that played a key role in Japan’s modernisation but relied on slave labour. An estimated 780,000 Koreans worked in mines and factories during Japan’s 1910-1945 colonial rule of the Korean peninsula, many in appalling conditions and without proper pay or holidays.
Japan’s prime minister, Fumio Kishida, nominated the mines this month after pressure from conservatives in his party including former prime minister Shinzo Abe. This drew an angry response from South Korea, whose foreign ministry accused Japan of “ignoring the painful history of forced labour for Koreans”.
Kishida said: “We are aware that South Korea has its own opinions. That’s why we feel we should have meaningful, rational dialogue.”
Japanese prime minister Fumio Kishida described the Sado mines as ‘wonderful’. Photograph: Koji Sasahara/AP
In recent years, groups of former labourers and their families have attempted to win compensation from Japanese companies including powerful conglomerates such as Nippon Steel and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries. But South Korean court rulings finding for the plaintiffs have been dismissed by Japan, which maintains that compensation claims stemming from the war were settled “completely and finally” by a 1965 bilateral treaty.
Companies that do not comply with the rulings risk having their assets in South Korea seized – a move observers say would harm the economies of both countries.
The 400-year-old Sado mine complex, which closed in 1989, was once among the world’s biggest gold producers, but its success was partly built on the exploitation of more than 1,000 Korean labourers.
In an editorial, the Korea Herald called the Unesco proposal “shameful”, adding: “Japan’s move to list the site … is a thinly veiled to attempt to whitewash the brutality that took place during its rule of Korea. For Koreans, the Sado mine is one of many sites illustrating the atrocities of Japanese colonialism amid the long-running view that Japan has yet to issue a sincere apology and offer proper compensation.”A Unesco advisory body will survey the complex and decide whether to include it in the list of heritage sites – a status that would encourage tourism and attract funds for protection and conservation. The World Heritage Committee, which includes Japan but not South Korea, will make a final decision next summer.
Japan has faced charges of attempting to ignore dark episodes from its past before: more than 20 Meiji era (1868-1912) industrial sites were added to Unesco’s world cultural heritage list in 2015. Although some of these places, including a coalmine on Gunkanjima island, had used forced labour, Japan was admonished by Unesco for failing to honour a commitment to explain that their workforces had included thousands of exploited Koreans. Local government descriptions of the Sado mines do not mention their use of Korean labourers.
Ties between South Korea and Japan are at their lowest level for years amid disputes over forced labour and “comfort women” – girls and women, mainly from the Korean peninsula, forced to work in Japanese military brothels before and during the war.
The US has called on leaders in Seoul and Tokyo to resolve the row and focus on addressing threats posed by a more aggressive China and an unpredictable North Korea.
7. North Korea’s accelerated nuclear ambitions
Excerpt:
The nuclear world order has witnessed setbacks in recent years from several key nuclear actors, including and specifically North Korea. As the sanctions monitor reiterates, North Korea’s ability to evade sanctions and bans to continue its malicious activities in the nuclear domain debilitates the very foundations of treaties such as the NPT. It is extremely unlikely for North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons, given these recent developments and the general stance in Pyongyang on its nuclear weapons advancement. However, it is crucial for key international actors to attempt and limit Pyongyang’s testing ambitions. For North Korea, its nuclear weapons serve as leverage to counter its growing domestic challenges (for example, food shortage) at the international negotiating table. It is evident that present international regulations and restrictions have had a deeper impact on civilians in the country rather than curbing the country’s military expansion and advancements. Therefore, as highlighted by the UN report, there must be a change in approach in order to shrink the growing risks and concerns as a result of Pyongyang’s nuclear goals.
North Korea’s accelerated nuclear ambitions | ORF
According to a recent report submitted to the United Nation (UN) Security Council Sanctions Committee, North Korea has continued to build on its nuclear and ballistic capabilities as well as the capacity to produce nuclear fissile materials. The report, submitted on 4 February by an independent sanctions monitor, details North Korea’s demonstrations of missile testing and deployment capabilities. The UN Security Council has long banned North Korea from conducting nuclear tests and has also placed Pyongyang under a number of sanctions as a result of the country’s nuclear and missile activities. The report states that “although no nuclear tests or launches of Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) were reported, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) continued to develop its capability for production of nuclear fissile materials.” The report comes a few weeks after North Korea’s assertion that it will resume its “temporally suspended activities” as a defence against the United States. This is potentially in reference to the 2017 self-imposed moratorium on nuclear weapons testing. As North Korea ramps up its missile tests and reasserts its decision to meet its nuclear weapons milestones, the concerns around increased hostility and accelerated weapons testing are not unfounded.
Neighbouring countries such as Japan and South Korea have long raised concerns about Pyongyang’s tests as a threat to regional security and stability.
The report raises a number of concerns around North Korea’s recent efforts in the nuclear domain. According to the report, North Korea has tested new technologies which include a “a possible hypersonic guiding warhead and a maneuverable re-entry vehicle.” The report also raises concerns around North Korea’s “increased capabilities for rapid deployment, wide mobility (including at sea), and improved resilience of its missile forces.” In the month of January, Pyongyang carried out nine ballistic missile launches, making it the largest number of tests in the country’s history of nuclear weapons and missile programmes. One of the most recent tests involved a Hwasong-12 mid-range ballistic missile which can reportedly carry a large-size nuclear warhead. Neighbouring countries such as Japan and South Korea have long raised concerns about Pyongyang’s tests as a threat to regional security and stability. These concerns are backed by statements from key actors in the international nuclear domain as these tests and North Korea’s nuclear ambitions pose a serious threat to international security and may cause nuclear escalations with states such as the US. The US expressed concerns about North Korea’s growing nuclear programme, specifically in relation to the tests conducted in January. Denuclearisation talks between Washington and Pyongyang have also been stalled since the breakdown in talks at the 2019 summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and then-US President Donald Trump. The January 2022 tests add to the dangers of a nuclear-advanced North Korea.
The cyber attacks targeted crypto exchanges in Asia, North America, and Europe between 2020 and mid-2021 and add to the estimated US $2 billion netted through cyber attacks in 2019.
The UN report also looks at how North Korea’s missile programme is funded. According to the sanctions monitor, the country’s missile programme has been funded through cryptocurrency (worth more than US $50 million) stolen through cyber attacks and has been a key source of revenue. North Korea has acquired around US $400 million through cyber attacks in 2021. As per the report, the cyber attacks targeted crypto exchanges in Asia, North America, and Europe between 2020 and mid-2021 and add to the estimated US $2 billion netted through cyber attacks in 2019. Despite UN sanctions, Pyongyang has been able to further grow its nuclear infrastructure and continues to do so through technological advancements and intense scientific research. As a result of illicit cyber and trade activities, North Korea has been able to significantly expand its nuclear and missile programme.
The UN report comes at a time when concerns around North Korea’s nuclear ambitions are at a high. North Korea’s withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in 2003 was a major blow to global nuclear disarmament. The country’s ability to advance its nuclear weapons programme despite the subsequent crippling international sanctions has significantly added to the instability in the region and beyond. North Korea’s accelerated weapons programme and possible move to lift its moratorium on nuclear weapons testing and ICBMs launches threaten the prospects of any denuclearisation talks.
North Korea’s withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in 2003 was a major blow to global nuclear disarmament.
The nuclear world order has witnessed setbacks in recent years from several key nuclear actors, including and specifically North Korea. As the sanctions monitor reiterates, North Korea’s ability to evade sanctions and bans to continue its malicious activities in the nuclear domain debilitates the very foundations of treaties such as the NPT. It is extremely unlikely for North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons, given these recent developments and the general stance in Pyongyang on its nuclear weapons advancement. However, it is crucial for key international actors to attempt and limit Pyongyang’s testing ambitions. For North Korea, its nuclear weapons serve as leverage to counter its growing domestic challenges (for example, food shortage) at the international negotiating table. It is evident that present international regulations and restrictions have had a deeper impact on civilians in the country rather than curbing the country’s military expansion and advancements. Therefore, as highlighted by the UN report, there must be a change in approach in order to shrink the growing risks and concerns as a result of Pyongyang’s nuclear goals.
8. We must not allow North Korea's crimes to slip off the radar
Human rights is not only a moral imperative, it is a national security issue.
Conclusion:
So, as we remember the Commission of Inquiry, let’s not just mark it as an anniversary of a landmark in the past. Let’s take it as a wake-up call and a manifesto for action to continue the fight. It should be a living document, not a historic text. In the words of that groundbreaking CSW report 15 years ago, let’s remember North Korea and remember that its ruling regime has a case to answer, and we all have a call to act.
We must not allow North Korea's crimes to slip off the radar - UCA News
Eight years after a no-holds-barred UN report, little has been done to hold a brutal regime to account
Published: February 18, 2022 03:25 AM GMT ▾
Updated: February 18, 2022 03:47 AM GMT
Exactly eight years ago to the day yesterday, a United Nations body did something quite rare: it told the full, comprehensive, unambiguous, undiplomatic, cold, hard truth about one of the most brutal, repressive, bloody and ruthless regimes in the world, and it outlined a plan of action. No fudge, no obfuscation, no compromise — just the facts, an analysis of what they meant, and a set of recommendations for what to do.
But the report should not simply go down in history as a great report. It should not sit on bookshelves gathering dust or being perused by students of international relations or humanitarian and human rights law as an academic text.
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Distinguished Australian judge Michael Kirby, who chaired the inquiry, and his colleagues — the former Indonesian attorney-general and UN special rapporteur on human rights in North Korea, Marzuki Darusman, and Serbian human rights expert Sonja Biserko — did not devote an entire year of their lives, hearing hours and hours of harrowing testimony, interrogating dozens of experts and escapees, reading through piles of witness evidence, only to have Feb. 17 marked each year as a memorial to their report by a handful of activists like me.
They devoted their time and considerable expertise to painstakingly gathering the most comprehensive dossier of evidence there has yet been about the North Korean regime’s terrible atrocities against its own people, with the purpose of motivating the international community to respond. Their efforts — and, even more importantly, the suffering and courage of the brave North Koreans who shared their stories in the inquiry’s public hearings — deserve a response and demand global action.
To take a step back for a moment, let me reflect on what led to the establishment of the Commission of Inquiry in the first place, and then its conclusions.
It documented a catalogue of atrocities including extermination, murder, enslavement, torture, imprisonment, rape, forced abortions, severe religious persecution, enforced disappearances and starvation
In 2007, the human rights organization with which I have been involved in various capacities for almost thirty years, CSW, published a groundbreaking report, North Korea: A Case to Answer, A Call to Act. Among other recommendations, that report called for the establishment of a UN Commission of Inquiry. It was one of the very first to do so. Indeed, I remember people telling me that we were wasting our time, banging our heads against a brick wall, as the UN would never, ever do this. I took the view that, on the contrary, if enough of us banged our heads against a brick wall for long enough, we might manage to dislodge some bricks.
For several years, we advocated for this goal, often as a voice crying in the wilderness. Around 2010, I became aware of a few other human rights organizations starting to float the same idea, and before long one of the world’s three largest and most influential groups, Human Rights Watch, was making this recommendation. It became clear to me that disparate, uncoordinated, ad hoc efforts were not going to achieve anything, but that a coordinated, worldwide coalition might stand a chance of making a difference.
Eventually, in 2011, we launched the International Coalition to Stop Crimes Against Humanity in North Korea (ICNK), bringing together over 40 human rights organizations from across Asia, Europe, North America and beyond, including the world’s three big human rights groups, Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch and the Paris-based International Federation of Human Rights (FIDH), around one specific, focused goal: the establishment of a UN Commission of Inquiry.
The ICNK launched in Tokyo in September 2011, and within 18 months or so, the UN special rapporteur for human rights in North Korea and the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights both called for a Commission of Inquiry.
There was then an element of luck, as the composition of the Human Rights Council in 2013 was remarkably favorable to our proposal — surprisingly, most rights-abusing countries had rotated off the council and it consisted of a majority of member states that generally respect, defend and uphold human rights.
It was carpe diem time — a resolution was put to a vote, it passed, and the inquiry was established. Those of us banging our heads against a brick wall had, indeed, dislodged some bricks and achieved a breakthrough. Apparently, there’s an old Chinese phrase that said: “The person who says it cannot be done should not interrupt the person doing it.”
To allow such crimes of such gravity to continue with such impunity for so long with such silence and apathy is utterly unacceptable
The inquiry got underway, and in 2014 it delivered its clear judgment: that Kim Jong-un’s regime was committing crimes against humanity, “the gravity, scale and nature” of which “reveal a state that does not have any parallel in the contemporary world.” It documented a catalogue of atrocities including extermination, murder, enslavement, torture, imprisonment, rape, forced abortions, severe religious persecution, enforced disappearances and starvation. All this should, in the inquiry’s recommendation, lead to a referral to the International Criminal Court.
For a few years, the inquiry’s recommendations were a live debate. Human rights in North Korea became an agenda item on the UN Security Council. The UN established a field office in Seoul — one of the inquiry’s recommendations — to continue to gather evidence. But in recent years, tragically, the issue has slipped from the world’s agenda.
Initially, it was actively driven off the agenda, both by South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in’s desire to shut down talk of human rights in the hope of rapprochement with Pyongyang and by US President Donald Trump’s erratic and misplaced lurch from condemning Kim Jong-un as “Rocket Man” and comparing the size of their buttons to becoming his best friend, resulting in historic talks for which we all held our breath in cautious hope and were disappointed.
But it has since been driven further down the agenda — by the justifiable increasing outcry at the Uyghur genocide in China, the dismantling of freedoms in Hong Kong, the coup in Myanmar, all of which I am deeply involved with and care passionately about, and by the Covid-19 pandemic and now the Ukraine crisis.
However, it is now time to revive the cause of North Korean human rights, and specifically the Commission of Inquiry’s recommendations. To allow such crimes of such gravity to continue with such impunity for so long with such silence and apathy is utterly unacceptable.
Let’s hope the UN will appoint someone with the skills to hold the regime to account, persuade the regime to change and mobilize the world to act
This year is significant for at least two reasons.
First, on March 9, in less than three weeks, South Koreans go to the polls to elect a new president. It is not for me to intervene or interfere in South Korean politics. But I do hope and pray that Koreans will elect a president who will put human rights in North Korea back at the heart of peninsula policy.
And second, later this year the mandate of the current UN special rapporteur for human rights in North Korea, Tomas Ojea Quintana, expires. It is vital that the mandate itself is renewed and that a credible appointment is made.
The three special rapporteurs so far — Thailand’s Vitit Muntarbhorn, Marzuki Darusman and Quintana — have all, in their different ways, brought great qualities to the role and pursued a mix of human rights advocacy, diplomacy, engagement and the pursuit of accountability. But none, despite their best efforts — and I deeply respect all three — has achieved any breakthroughs. Let’s hope the UN will appoint someone with the skills to hold the regime to account, persuade the regime to change and mobilize the world to act. That’s a tall order, but it is what is required.
So, as we remember the Commission of Inquiry, let’s not just mark it as an anniversary of a landmark in the past. Let’s take it as a wake-up call and a manifesto for action to continue the fight. It should be a living document, not a historic text. In the words of that groundbreaking CSW report 15 years ago, let’s remember North Korea and remember that its ruling regime has a case to answer, and we all have a call to act.
With dwindling support from funding partners in Europe and the USA, we need to call on the support of those who benefit from our work.
9. UN special rapporteur meets with relatives of victims of North
Sunday
February 20, 2022
UN special rapporteur meets with relatives of victims of North
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2022/02/20/national/northKorea/korea-north-korea-human-rights/20220220181153223.html
Tomás Ojea Quintana, the UN special rapporteur on the situation of human rights in North Korea, speaks with residents of an inter-Korean border town in Cheorwon County, Gangwon, on Saturday. [YONHAP]
Tomás Ojea Quintana, the UN special rapporteur on the situation of human rights in North Korea, met with a relative of the South Korean fisheries official killed by North Korean authorities in September 2020, in Seoul on Thursday.
The relatives have been requesting for over a year the disclosure of government records on how the official was killed. The Coast Guard at the time concluded the victim was defecting to the North when he was killed, a conclusion the victim’s family including his older brother Lee Rae-jin objected to.
The family filed an injunction to the Seoul Administrative Court in January 2021 to have access to the government records on how the victim died. The court ruled in November that the Blue House and the Coast Guard should disclose such information to the bereaved family.
The two institutions, however, appealed to the court, and the information has continued to be withheld from the family.
The records can be withheld for as long as the next 30 years, if they are designated presidential archives by the Moon Jae-in government.
Lee spoke with the JoongAng Ilbo exclusively about the meeting with Quintana on Thursday.
“He asked, ‘Why would the Blue House appeal such a case?’” Lee said, adding that Quintana said he will relay the situation to the United Nations.
Quintana also received from Lee his written petition to the UN Secretary General António Guterres, requesting the United Nations “investigate human rights violations and atrocities of both South and North Korea” in regards to the case.
“I requested the United Nations’ help to fight the Korean government’s intent to cover up information related to my brother's death,” Lee said.
Quintana had written to the Moon administration in November 2020, requesting the government provide sufficient information regarding the incident to the bereaved family.
The victim, a man who worked for the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries’ West Sea Fisheries Management Service, disappeared on Sept. 21, 2020, from a monitoring boat near the coast of Small Yeonpyeong Island in the Yellow Sea. He was found in North Korean waters the next day and was shot and killed by an individual on board a North Korean patrol boat, according to the South Korean government.
His body was likely cremated by the North Koreans, according to the Moon government. Moon and the Defense Ministry issued warnings to the North at the time, but no further public action was taken.
Quintana, who is is in Korea through Wednesday to collect information for a report to the United Nations Human Rights Council, also met with a relative of a South Korean citizen abducted to the North in an airplane hijacking case in December 1969. A total of 50 South Koreans were abducted, of whom 39 were returned to Seoul the next year. Eleven did not make it home, including a man named Hwang Won.
His son Hwang In-cheol met with Quintana on Thursday.
“I asked Quintana if he could officially and publicly demand the North Korean regime to return the 11 abductees,” Hwang told the JoongAng Ilbo on Thursday. “The Moon Jae-in administration, which has held three inter-Korean summits, has made no effort to resolve the abductee issue. I asked for assistance from the United Nations so we can put an end to the 52-year-long pain.”
Quintana, though he agreed with Hwang on the need to highlight the issue internationally, told him that there are difficulties in resolving the case because of the North’s continued unwillingness to cooperate with the United Nations to improve the human rights situation in the country, according to Hwang.
The UN special rapporteur also met with Vice Foreign Minister Choi Jong-moon and Vice Unification Minister Choi Young-joon on Wednesday.
He also traveled to Cherwon County, Gangwon, over the weekend to meet with residents and discuss with them the ban on flying anti-North leaflets. Quintana, along with three other rapporteurs at the UN, have expressed their concerns that a law passed in 2020 banning the anti-Pyongyang propaganda leaflets could infringe on individuals' freedom of expression.
Upon hearing from some residents on Saturday their grievances in relation to the leaflets' environmental damage, as well as the costs they have to bear to their individual security during times of heightened tension in the region of their residence, Quintana said that he does not completely oppose the law, but only a part of the law that outlines punitive measures on the violators.
He was reported to have said during the meeting that "freedom of expression may be limited when the expression can harm another individual or national security."
This was his seventh and possibly last visit to Korea, given his tenure which began in August 2016 is scheduled to end in July.
The special rapporteur will hold a press conference at the Korea Press Center on Wednesday.
Tomás Ojea Quintana, the UN special rapporteur on the situation of human rights in North Korea, center, Lee Rae-jin, brother of a South Korean official killed in North Korean waters in September 2020, left, and Kim Ki-yoon, his lawyer, right, meet at the the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights in Seoul on Thursday. [YONHAP]
10. Calls growing to embrace nuclear energy amid surging energy costs, Ukraine uncertainty
The next president needs a better nuclear energy policy.
Calls growing to embrace nuclear energy amid surging energy costs, Ukraine uncertainty
A nuclear plant in Uljin, North Gyeongsang Province Korea Times fileBy Lee Kyung-min
Korea should promptly recognize the need to increase the use of nuclear energy, the only viable alternative to unstable and costly renewables prone to extreme volatility due to weather conditions and geopolitical risks, energy experts said Sunday.
The affordable and stable source of energy, demonized largely for political objectives under the Moon Jae-in administration, is the only answer to soaring energy costs, certain to fall on the public in the form of higher utility bills once the presidential election is over next month.
Further anchoring the view is escalating tensions in Ukraine, a geopolitical uncertainty that the global investment banking sector says could send crude oil prices to as high as $150 (179,000 won) per barrel in the first quarter of this year in a full-fledged energy crisis.
Also to be factored in is a recent move by the European Commission (EC) to recognize nuclear and natural gas as green energy sources, an indication that even the European Union countries are acknowledging that the use of nuclear power and natural gas as essential for the time being.
Not if but when
"It is not a matter of if but when," Seoul National University economist Lee In-ho said.
Solar energy is unreliable, with the power output swinging extremely when faced with snowfall and shortened sunlight hours in winter, the season when energy supply stability is especially critical for heating, he said.
"Government policy seeking to rely more on solar energy, in that sense, means people being asked to risk not having a house with a heating system working in the cold," he said.
"It might sound a bit exaggerated at this point, but this is not completely out of the question with surging liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices factored in. Korea will have to increase the much-blasted energy source, or brace for an energy crisis similar to the one in Europe, if Ukraine tension intensifies and triggers a supply shock."
Years of railroading the nuclear phase-out policy, a key green growth initiative under the Moon administration, has failed to achieve any material improvement in environmental conditions, all the while living expenses are surging, compounded by rising inflation brought on by pandemic-induced liquidity, according to another expert.
"No current energy sources can fully replace nuclear power," Korea University professor of Resources and Energy Economics Park Ho-jeong said.
Korea has until recently pushed further the carbon-neutrality initiative, a grand objective without any means to make it happen, in his view.
The Korean Resource Economics Association said the government seems adamant about meeting the net-zero emissions goal, as illustrated by revisions to a slew of relevant laws to make it binding for the private sector. "But how high the cost will become and at whose expense remains undiscussed, a responsibility to be borne by the next administration."
The EU announced its plan Feb. 2 (local time) to classify natural gas and nuclear power as green investments, despite fierce protests from Germany and four other nations. This prompted the Korea Economic Research Institute to recommend that Korea revise its K-Taxonomy, the Korean version of the EU Taxonomy, to follow suit. The Taxonomy is a set of guidelines for green and sustainable investments outlining eligibility for state grants.
11. China Has Nurtured Dangerous North Korea
China Has Nurtured Dangerous North Korea | Yoshiko Sakurai -official web site-
North Korea has been launching missiles with unprecedented frequency since the beginning of the new year. Presumably, Pyongyang is intending to entice Washington into negotiations in a desperate effort to obtain relief from United Nations sanctions.
On September 3, 2017, North Korea conducted its sixth nuclear test since 2006 on the biggest scale ever for that country, experimenting with a 160-kiloton hydrogen warhead roughly ten times more powerful than the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima. Two months later, on November 29, Pyongyang launched an ICBM (Intercontinental Ballistic Missile). It was only natural that the UN imposed stringent economic sanctions. Observed Korean Peninsula expert Tsutomu Nishioka:
“The international sanctions led by then Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his American counterpart Donald Trump have had a devastating effect on the North Korean economy. Although trains and buses have recently resumed operation between China and North Korea, one cannot say full-fledged bilateral trade has resumed. It will be a long time before the North’s chronic shortage of goods will be resolved. Because of coronavirus restrictions which suspended the import of paper and ink from China, among other things, the nation’s central bank, unable to print banknotes, has been forced to issue flimsy ‘cash coupons’ known as ‘Tongpyo.’”
The authorities have directed North Korean citizens:
“Users of the coupons are ordered to well understand that the quality of the paper is not good, always handle them with maximum care and keep them clean, refrain from dirtying or damaging them under all circumstances, and display patriotism in order to be able to keep them in circulation as long as possible.”
The North’s food crisis has been serious. Last year, the Workers’ Central Committee met three months in succession—January, February, and June—to implement emergency measures to overcome the shortage. Despite this, even distributions to elite army and party executives were not always reliable.
Behind the intense flurry of missile tests pushed by Kim Jong-un, one sees a desperate desire to break free of his current predicament through negotiations with the US. One could also interpret Kim’s decision to go ahead with missile launches as a manifestation of his fear of the US military.
On September 20, 2017, three weeks after the aforementioned hydrogen bomb experiment, Trump sent two Guam-based B-1B Lancers to the Korean Peninsula. The supersonic strategic bombers flew along the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) and, escorted by more than a dozen warplanes, including two F-16s and two F-15 Ks, conducted an air raid exercise off Wonsan on North Korea’s east coast, where Kim was temporarily staying. The situation on the Korean Peninsula was that close to a real war at the time, and US forces could have killed Kim then. Trump reportedly was complaining that the exercise off Wonsan was too costly, while Defense Secretary James Mattis was later quoted as recalling how anguished he was at the time as someone in a position to recommend the use of nuclear weapons against the North to Trump, if necessary.
Sensing that America’s anger was real, Kim abruptly suspended nuclear and missile tests soon afterwards.
Today, five years later, the US is deploying five aircraft carriers in the western Pacific—more than enough cause for concern for Kim. Former Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera pointed to the possibility of a cornered Kim growing belligerent, explaining:
“Unlike the North Korea policy pursued by Trump, President Biden’s reflects no conciliatory posture. I think Kim fired the mid-range missile capable of targeting Guam in a frustrated attempt to show off his power. The North may even test an ICBM following the Winter Olympics in Beijing. In that case, the US will have to face adversaries on three fronts simultaneously—Russia eying Ukraine, North Korea, and China.”
When Ukraine Succumbs to Russia
At the end of last August, Biden implemented a clumsy pullout of US troops from Afghanistan ostensibly to deal squarely with China rather than dealing with China and the Middle East at the same time. But the situation has since changed drastically, with the US now facing the possibility of facing three adversaries all at once.
It is anybody’s guess how the Ukrainian strategy of Vladimir Putin will play out. Putin’s Russia invaded a foreign country during two past Olympics—the 2008 Summer Games in Beijing and the 2014 Sochi Winter Games in Russia. There is a possibility of Russia deciding to invade Ukraine this year, too. In that event, will the US be able to overcome adverse consequences by merely resorting to the economic sanctions it has been warning Russia of? Won’t the US be urged by its NATO allies to take tougher action? Unless the US lends a hand, Ukraine will likely be brought under Russian control. And when Ukraine is brought to its knees without America doing anything about the situation, China will view it as a golden opportunity to increase pressure on Taiwan from all sides. This will likely be an existential threat to Japan, too.
To explain how evil China is, I will refer the reader to The Nuclear Express: A Political History of the Bomb and Its Proliferation by Thomas C. Reed and Danny B. Stillman (Zenith Press, Minnesota, USA; 2009). Reed is former Secretary of the Air Force under Presidents Ford and Carter. As Special Assistant to President Reagan for National Security Policy, he contributed to formulating the Soviet policy of the Reagan administration which led the Soviet Union to its collapse without a war. Stillman is a nuclear specialist who worked 28 years for Los Alamos National Laboratory, well known for the research and development of the atomic bomb.
The 400-book makes a special mention of the role Deng Xiaoping played in proliferating nuclear weapons throughout the Third World: “…during the Deng years, 1981-1989, China became highly supportive of nuclear proliferation into the Third World. China transferred technology to Pakistan, attempted to build a secret plutonium-producing nuclear reactor in the Algerian desert, and sold to Saudi Arabi intermediate-range missiles suitable only for the delivery of nuclear weapons. Further, China has tolerated a nuclear weapons program within North Korea and has catered to the nuclear ambitions of Iranian ayatollahs in a blatant attempt to secure an ongoing supply of oil. China has also become the leading supplier of other WMD technology into the Third World.” Allow me to site several other pertinent passages below.
China’s Transgressions
Following North Korea’s first nuclear experiment in 2006, UN members called for all ships entering and leaving North Korean ports to be inspected, but China violently opposed this. Moreover, it allowed “many a proliferant state to overfly China when picking up illicit goods in North Korea.”
Immediately before the US entered the war against Iraq in 2003, “China supplied Iraq with critically needed missile components. China also supplied Iraq with missile-guidance software disguised as ‘children’s computer software.’ In the early 1980s, China transferred a nuclear weapon design package to Pakistan’s A.Q. Khan, (who) reconveyed that information on to Libya, Iran, and others.” （The book cites a host of other examples of China’s transgressions that I will not introduce due to lack of space.）
As regards China’s posture toward the US during this period, the authors conclude: “(We) are of the view that some within the government of China might not object to the nuclear destruction of New York or Washington, followed by the collapse of American financial power, so long as Chinese fingerprints could not be found at the scene of the crime.”
The going will not be easy for the US. What Japan must do at this juncture is do its utmost to bolster its national resilience and strategically work more closely with its vital Pacific ally. A joint declaration by President Biden and former Prime Minister Yoshihide in Washington last April committing to peace and security in the Taiwan Strait, and a pledge to ‘deflate’ China’s might made by the US secretaries of defense and state and their Japanese counterparts last month have brought the two allies closer together. Japan and the US have thus renewed their commitment to cooperate with each other to deter China, and to take military action, if necessary, to “respond” to destabilizing activities in the region on the clear understanding that the security of Taiwan in effect overlaps with that of Japan.
When it comes to a conflict in which our adversaries will attack us with missiles, we will definitely need the capability to strike enemy bases, as our missile defense system will not be able to effectively deter sophisticated hypersonic missiles. To sufficiently address the threats of China, Russia, and North Korea each brandishing nuclear weapons, Japan must expeditiously review its “three non-nuclear principles” (“non-possession,” “non-production,” and “non-introduction” of nuclear weapons), eliminating “non-introduction” to make room for American nuclear-tipped missiles to be deployed on our islands. It is time we realized that tactical nuclear force is the greatest deterrence against hostile acts.
(Translated from “Renaissance Japan” column no. 986 in the February 10, 2022 issue of The Weekly Shincho)
12. Why North Korea's Missiles Are a Growing Threat to US Military Bases
Kim developed missile and rocket systems for what he calls the "fat target" of Camp Humphreys, and Osan, Kunsan, and Cheongju air bases.
Why North Korea's Missiles Are a Growing Threat to US Military Bases
North Korea has conducted almost a dozen missile tests this year. The regime now appears to have hundreds of missiles of short, medium, and long ranges. Its biggest are large enough – have enough ‘throw-weight’ – to reach the United States or Europe. The North has also begun to research hypersonic missiles. These fast missiles are maneuverable, which helps the warhead slip past missile defenses. The North is also developing improved launch capabilities. It has placed missiles on trains, trucks (TELs), and traditional gantry platforms. It is also trying to mount them on a submarine. And it is working on solid-fuel capabilities for shorter launch windows than possible with liquid-fueled rockets.
In short, North Korea is building out a full-spectrum missile program. In 2017, it achieved the core competence of a North American strike capability. That is, it successfully tested an inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM) large enough to reach the United States with a nuclear weapon. For the first time in its history, Pyongyang had the ability to strike its primary global opponent with devasting force. This nuclear-tipped ICBM gives the North basic deterrence. It and the US are now locked in the familiar dynamic of mutually assured destruction (MAD).
Build More and Better
With this basic benchmark achieved – and the great step-up in national security it brings – the North can now move on to a wide range of other missile capabilities:
Second Strike: One possible answer to MAD is a massive first strike to eliminate an opponent’s nukes before the opponent can use them (the use-it-or-lose-it dilemma). If the US were to fight North Korea in the future, the US would almost certainly attempt to destroy its missiles before the launch. This would entail a massive, rapid air campaign, possibly including the use of tactical (low yield) nuclear weapons to hit buried Northern nukes.
Both the Soviets and Americans feared this option from the other during the Cold War. Both responded by making their arsenals more mobile or hardening those facilities (silos) which could not be moved. The ideal answer both sides found was submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). Submarines are hard to find. The earth is 70% water, giving them much space to hard. Indeed, SLBMs are so valuable that most nuclear weapons states now rely on them to assure a second strike capability, one that could survive a massive enemy first strike and still hit back.
The North is attempting exactly this. It is enhancing the survivability of arsenal. Land-based maneuverability – train- and truck-based launchers – is a technologically cheaper option. But subs would be the gold standard and obviate a US first strike.
Quantity: The North Korean military is famously large, probably the fourth biggest in the world by sheer manpower. But there are widespread questions about its combat capability. Its equipment is dated. It lacks fuel. Its soldiers are malnourished and consequently less fit than South Korean soldiers, and so on. And this military faces the very high tech and well-trained armies of South Korea and the United States.
The North’s best strategic option then is to exploit an area where it has a clear advantage. Missiles are cheap; the technology has been around for eight decades. They are hard to defend against. Missile defense (MD) is very expensive and does not work very well. The offense-defense balance of the missile-MD race is heavily tilted toward missiles, and hypersonics worsen that imbalance. As the North learns to miniaturize its nuclear warheads, its smaller, shorter range missiles can start carrying nukes too. This would give it the ability to use nuclear weapons both strategically – to devastate the cities of its opponents in a war – and tactically, on the battlefield as stepped-up conventional weapons, to make up for its current conventional inferiority.
US Asian Bases are Now Vulnerable
The strategic consequences from the missilization of the North Korean military are myriad. For South Korea (and Japan), North Korea’s spiraling missile program inevitably raises questions of pre-emption, which the conservative candidate in South Korea’s current presidential election has already discussed. Ideally, missile defense will improve. Indeed, we should desperately invest in it to provide some relief from the logic driving the US, South Korea, and Japan toward preemption.
North Korean Hwasong-16 ICBM. Image Credit: KCNA/North Korean State Media.
North Korean Test of Hwasong-15 ICBM. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
South Korea and Japan cannot move their countries, but one other consequence of North Korean missilization is that the US will likely shrink its regional bases soon. American bases such as Humphreys in South Korea and Kadena in Japan are increasingly vulnerable. Such bases are a large cluster of US citizens – servicepeople plus associated family and contractors. They could act as ‘missile hostages’ to North Korea (or China) in a crisis. Very soon, there will be a US debate about whether to turn such locations into ‘lily pads’ rather than the large outposts they are now.
Dr. Robert E. Kelly (@Robert_E_Kelly; website) is a professor of international relations in the Department of Political Science at Pusan National University. Dr. Kelly is a 1945 Contributing Editor as well.
V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
