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January 2023 Newsletter

Dear Clients, Family, Friends, and Neighbors,

 

Happy, Healthy New Year and Happy Year of the Rabbit!


Sadly, the 49ers are not going to the Super Bowl. However, the waterfalls are flowing, the reservoirs are full, and the hiking trails are beautiful right now.


The postmortem on the 2022 real estate market is in. Q3 and Q4 sales were down in many cities and towns in Marin County and elsewhere due to the lack of inventory and dramatic increase in interest rates. See the chart below showing 2021 vs. 2022. In the luxury space, $5M + single-family home sales - 121 sales in 2021/112 sales in 2022 respectively; $10M + were 20 sales vs. 17 sales, and $15M + sales were 8 vs. 4. The highest sale in 2021 - $28.1M (Ross) vs 2022 - $19.5M (Belvedere). 

While it is far too early in the year to forecast projections and expectations, what I am seeing is that for the vast majority of luxury homeowners in Marin County, selling is discretionary and when the market softens, many home owners decide to stay put. It looks like lack of inventory will continue to be a big challenge in 2023.  Buyers and sellers should take note that A+ homes in A+ locations continue to sell quickly and often with multiple offers and often at Q1 2022 prices. Sellers with lesser homes and in B or C locations can no longer get away with deferred maintenance and dated interiors. These homes are likely to stay on the market longer and when they sell, they will be at pre-COVID prices. 


Rates are stabilizing, and after seven successive rate hikes in 2022, the Fed plans to slow the rate hikes to a more traditional quarter percentage point when the Fed meets on February 1.  Patrick Carlisle, Chief Market Analyst for Bay Area Compass, shared in his January 2023 Macroeconomic Report that inflation has dropped for the 6th straight month from 9% in June to 6.4% in December. 



Last week on CNBC, Compass CEO Robert Reffkin shared, “For the first time in 10 months, all the statistics I look at are trending positively.”  He added that Q4 would be considered the bottom of the real estate market. Q1 may be the last time for buyers to negotiate against sellers. https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/01/23/we-are-hiring-moderately-says-compass-ceo.html


Getting a top ROI is always a priority when we work our magic on homes before listing them. We are currently preparing a number of homes for the market, which is a big part of what we do as a listing team. Our clients are always thrilled with the results. “Move-In Ready” is what most of today’s buyers want, and they speak with their wallets.  


Finally, collaboration with trusted colleagues is important to us and helps our team better serve our clients. On Friday, we hosted four other top Bay Area teams in our office to share best practices, how we can improve on collaboration and our process and systems on behalf of our clients. The event was led by our strategic advisor, Jonathan Lack. Joining us was the Dana Green Team of the Lamorinda area, Missy Wyant Smit Team of San Francisco, Neal Ward Properties of San Francisco, and Shana Rohde-Lynch of Go2Marin in Marin County.

We love to hear from you. Please do not hesitate to reach out or stop by our office to say hello if we can ever be helpful.



All the best,

2023 Active & Coming Soon Properties

Sale Pending

21 Rancheria Road, Kent Woodlands

List Price: $9,495,000

Coming Soon

Kent Woodlands

Incredible Mt. Tam Views

Sale Pending

76 Ridgecrest Road, Kent Woodlands

List Price: $3,875,000

Coming Soon

Kent Woodlands

Coveted Location in the Flats

Coming Soon

Kentfield

Expansive 1.48-Acre Lot

2023 CHC Team Property Sales

14 Rancheria Road, Kent Woodlands

Sold Off-Market: $5,200,000

Buyer Representation

Marin Lifestyle

Open for dinner Tues thru Sat starting at 5:15 pm  

Make a reservation: (415) 925.9200 or by Open Table  

Alicia & Darren Banks New Owners

23 Ross Commons

(Closed Sunday & Mondays)


Jobs report and more: Three things that could affect mortgage rates this week

SF Gate - January 30, 2023

San Francisco’s Median Home Price Fell for the First Time in a Decade in 2022

Mansion Global - January 9, 2023

Market News

Bay Area Population & Migration

Compass - January 2023

Marin County Real Estate Report

Compass - January 2023

Macroeconomic Trends

Compass - January 2023

Fire & Public Safety

Flooding in Marin: What You Need to Do to Stay Safe

Fire Safe Marin - January 30, 2023

23 Ross Common, Suite 3 | Ross, CA 94957

415-461-8609 | carey@chcteam.com

chcteam.com | DRE 01323032

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