By Brian Nelson, CFA
It's great to see the Valuentum strategies working. On June 22, we released our updated "performance tracking" on both the
simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and the Exclusive capital appreciation ideas and Exclusive short ideas. This analysis can be found
here and
here for your review, respectively. The simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio has generated about 4-5 percentage points of "alpha" so far in 2022, while the Exclusive ideas continue to put up amazing success rates, especially the short idea considerations.
On the basis of our calculations, as shown in the image above, the simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, which is found in each monthly edition of the High Yield Dividend Newsletter, is doing just about as well as any of our other "outperforming" portfolios--and has fallen an estimated 7.26% so far in 2022, on a price-only basis through June 22. The High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio now also sports an estimated forward yield that's very attractive, just north of 4.9% at the time of this writing, too.
A ~7% price drop in the simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio doesn't sound like much to get excited about, but again, the measure is on a price-only basis, so it doesn't consider the sizable dividends that one would have received so far in 2022, so things are going even better than this analysis indicates. Furthermore, the simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter (-7.26%), on a price-only year-to-date basis, is doing better than the Proshares High Yield ETF (-8.9%), the SPDR S&P 500 Dividend ETF (-9.61%), the Vanguard Real Estate ETF (-21.8%), the SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 High Dividend ETF (-7.34%), and most every major market index, including the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NASDAQ 100 -- all data retrieved from Seeking Alpha.
Please don't misinterpret what we're saying. We're not tooting our horn during this bear market, but rather explaining the value-add behind the Valuentum research and analysis process. The two biggest positive contributors to the simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio in 2022 have been Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM), which has advanced ~43.5% so far in 2022, and Chevron (CVX), which has advanced 25.9% so far this year. The Valuentum process continues to highlight "outperforming" ideas, and we took the opportunity to add both XOM and CVX to several newsletter portfolios when the time was ripe. XOM and CVX were added to the BIN and DGN portfolios in June 2021, and they were added to the HYDN portfolio in November 2021.
Though we'd like to see capital appreciation, of course, we're quite pleased with how resilient the well-diversified, simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio has been "performing" thus far in 2022, and we're just as pleased with the size of its estimated forward dividend yield. The next edition of the High Yield Dividend Newsletter will be released at its regularly-scheduled date of the first of the month this July. We hope you continue to enjoy our work, and please let us know if you have any questions.
Kind regards,
Brian Nelson, CFA
President, Investment Research
Valuentum Securities, Inc.
brian@valuentum.com
