Quotes of the Day:
"If you do not have the power to close the skies, then give me planes.”
-President Volodymyr Zelensky
"Let us be firm, pure and faithful; at the end of our sorrow, there is the greatest glory of the world, that of the men who did not give in."
- Charles de Gaulle
"Neither a wise man nor a brave man lies down on the tracks of history to wait for the train of the future to run over him."
-Dwight D. Eisenhower
1. [Editorial] Shaky alliance (ROK/US)
2. Ukraine crisis causes delay in S. Korea,-U.S.-Japan talks to arrange defense ministerial meeting: official
3. 2.1 magnitude natural quake hits near N. Korea's nuclear test site: weather agency
4. North Korea, China and the U.S. are closely watching South Korea's election
5. The Ukraine lesson (for South korea)
6. South Korean Presidential Candidates Accused of Politicizing Ukraine War
7. North Korean nuclear weapons program 'primed for expansion,' report says
8. North Korean workers in Russia feel financial sting from Ukraine invasion
9. Korea's Per-Capita Income Reaches $35,000
10. Inside Vladimir Putin And Kim Jong-Un's Relationship
11. U.S. senators voice concern over possible use of cryptocurrency by N. Korea to evade sanctions
12. S. Korea wins exemption from U.S' Foreign Direct Product Rule regarding exports to Russia
13. How North Korea Could Exploit Russia's War Against Ukraine
14. North Korea Kept Ukraine Invasion Secret to All Except Ruling Party Members
15. S.Korea's next president to face a N.Korea forging ahead in nuclear, missile production
1. [Editorial] Shaky alliance (ROK/US)
South Korea is going to have to move past walking the tightrope among the great powers in strategic competition. It has to stand for its values. It must recognize that as a responsible democratic country it has to support the international rules based order and fellow democracies because it is in the best interests of the ROK to do so. Trying to hedge or remain somehow "neutral" among the great powers will actually do more harm to the nation because there are no real upsides to hedging.
Most importantly it must act in its own interests and not simply for the alliance - but its interests align with the alliance and it
[Editorial] Shaky alliance
Korea hesitates in imposing sanctions as US, allies close ranks against Russia
Published : Mar 3, 2022 - 05:30 Updated : Mar 3, 2022 - 05:30
The United States recently announced export controls on Russia as part of economic sanctions for its invasion of Ukraine.
The restrictions require even foreign-made items using US technology and software to get an approval from the US government before being shipped to Russia.
However, the US Commerce Department has exempted 32 countries from the new rules because they have implemented or are planning on implementing similar restrictive export control measures on Russia. They are 27 European countries and Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Japan, and the United Kingdom. South Korea is not among them.
Under the rules, South Korean companies will have to go through a complex procedure of getting prior US approval on their exports to Russia.
This is a result of the South Korean administration’s passive moves on the matter of imposing sanctions against Russia.
Before Russia invades Ukraine, the US and allies agreed to impose sanctions if the invasion becomes a reality.
However, Seoul took a passive position that it could not but join sanctions if the US and Europe impose them. Even as Washington vowed to sanction Russian gas pipeline projects, the prime minister said last week publicly that South Korea should keep on pushing a project to lay a gas pipeline linking Russia to South Korea via North Korea. Only after Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, the government announced it would join sanctions. It looked obviously reluctant.
US President Joe Biden hosted a conference call on Monday with US allies and partners about their unified response to Russia’s war on Ukraine. The White House said the allies and partners were Canada, the EU, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, NATO, Poland, Romania and the UK. South Korea was not among them.
A senior Biden administration official said on Monday that the US is taking sanctions of the Russian central bank with Germany, France, the UK, Italy, Japan, Canada, the European Union, and others. There was no mention of South Korea.
Korea seems to be routinely left out. The US recently struck a deal with Japan to remove tariffs on Japanese steel imports, but it has not yet fixed a date for negotiations with South Korea.
South Korea has become a hard-to-trust ally of the US, even as it maintains the US alliance for about seven decades.
There is a reason. South Korea hesitated to fall into step while other countries closed ranks against Russia. Naturally, the US, allies and partners are unsatisfied.
Only after Russia invaded Ukraine, Cheong Wa Dae expressed willingness to join sanctions, but excluded the possibility of taking its own measures.
After the news came out that South Korea was not among 32 countries exempted from US export controls on Russia, the government belatedly decided to ban shipments of strategic items to Russia and notified the US of the decision.
Afterwards it also decided to join global efforts to cut off a number of Russian banks from the international payment system. The Moon administration rushed to pick up the pieces after the event.
Probably it worried about Russia’s possible retaliation. The same might be true of other countries. However, they took a risk to show the solidarity of the international community.
Alliance is a promise among allies to defend one another at the risk of sacrifice. It can stand only when allies trust one another.
The Korea-US alliance has shaken to the point that Korea was left out of the pack of 32 countries exempted from the US export controls on Russia.
Washington has emphasized coordinated action by allies and partners. If South Korea steps back or hesitates when its ally demands a united action, it would be told that it is shameless when it asks for help.
2. Ukraine crisis causes delay in S. Korea,-U.S.-Japan talks to arrange defense ministerial meeting: official
Not unexpected but we need to meet as soon as feasible.
Ukraine crisis causes delay in S. Korea,-U.S.-Japan talks to arrange defense ministerial meeting: official | Yonhap News Agency
SEOUL, March 3 (Yonhap) -- The armed conflict in Ukraine has led to a delay in talks among South Korea, the United States and Japan to arrange their in-person defense ministerial meeting, a Seoul official said Thursday.
The three countries have been in talks to set up a meeting among Defense Minister Suh Wook and his U.S. and Japanese counterparts, Lloyd Austin and Nobuo Kishi, in line with an agreement at their phone talks last month to meet face-to-face at a "mutually agreed-upon" date.
The three defense chiefs have been trying to meet in an apparent move to highlight their cooperation in countering North Korea's military threats in the wake of a series of its weapons tests, including Sunday's ballistic missile test.
"There has been a bit of delay in the consultations due to various international situations," the official at Seoul's defense ministry told reporters on condition of anonymity. "A final date has yet to be fixed."
Expectations have lingered that Suh, Austin and Kishi would gather in Hawaii this month. But the raging conflict in Ukraine following Russia's invasion last week has raised uncertainties over the prospects of the trilateral talks.
Washington has been striving to rally its Asian allies and other partners to join its campaign to jointly confront current and future security challenges, including an increasingly assertive China.
(END)
3. 2.1 magnitude natural quake hits near N. Korea's nuclear test site: weather agency
Why so many quakes? Have the 6 nuclear tests changed the geology of the area?
2.1 magnitude natural quake hits near N. Korea's nuclear test site: weather agency | Yonhap News Agency
SEOUL, March 4 (Yonhap) -- A 2.1 magnitude natural earthquake struck near North Korea's nuclear test site early Friday, South Korea's weather agency said.
The quake struck about 33 kilometers north-northwest of Kilju, North Hamgyong Province, at 2:15 a.m., the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) said.
Kilju is where North Korea's Punggye-ri nuclear testing site is located.
The epicenter of Friday's quake was at a latitude of 41.24 degrees north and a longitude of 129.22 degrees east at a depth of 29 km. The KMA said the quake occurred naturally.
(END)
4. North Korea, China and the U.S. are closely watching South Korea's election
Yes, everyone is watching. And wonderin how it will turn out.
North Korea, China and the U.S. are closely watching South Korea's election
KEY POINTS
- A conservative victory for South Korea’s upcoming presidential election could see the country adopt a rigid stance on North Korea and China, potentially igniting fresh tensions in the Asia-Pacific.
- Given North Korea’s ongoing missile activity and anti-China sentiment at home, foreign policy matters are expected to affect public sentiment.
- With each candidate holding diverging views on relations with North Korea, China and the United States, there’s a lot at stake for South Korea’s geopolitical fate.
CNBC · by Nyshka Chandran · March 4, 2022
Supporters await the arrival of presidential candidate Yoon Seok-youl of the main opposition People Power Party during during a presidential election campaign on Feb. 15, 2022, in Seoul, South Korea.
Chung Sung-jun | Getty Images News | Getty Images
A conservative victory for South Korea's upcoming presidential election could see the country adopt a rigid stance on North Korea and China, potentially igniting fresh tensions in the Asia-Pacific.
Yoon Seok-youl of the conservative People Power Party and Lee Jae-myung of the ruling Democratic Party (DP) are the front-runners for the March 9 vote. A string of opinion polls conducted by Gallup Korea, a research company, show Yoon and Lee running neck and neck, indicating a tight race ahead. In one survey of 1,000 adults on Feb. 25, Lee's public approval rating stood at 38%, compared with Yoon's 37%. Another poll in early February showed the two tied at 35%.
Economic issues, particularly housing, are at the forefront of this election. But given North Korea's ongoing missile activity and anti-China sentiment at home, foreign policy matters are also expected to weigh on public sentiment. With each candidate holding diverging views on relations with North Korea, China and the United States, there's a lot at stake for South Korea's geopolitical fate.
North Korea
Kim Jong Un's government has been ramping up missile tests as diplomatic talks with the United States and its allies remain at a standstill. This isn't a novel development, but against the backdrop of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, it adds to rising fears of regional unrest. Most recently, on Feb. 27, Pyongyang fired what likely was a medium-range ballistic missile, according to officials in South Korea and Japan.
In line with his conservative predecessors, Yoon demands North Korea first denuclearize before the two Koreas agree on peace pacts and economic assistance. In late November, he told the South Korean newspaper Kookmin Ilbo that he would consider canceling the 2018 Comprehensive Military Agreement, a diplomatic milestone of President Moon Jae-in's reign, if North Korea doesn't change its attitude.
South Korean presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung of the ruling Democratic Party looks on before televised presidential debate for the upcoming March 9 presidential election at KBS studio on March 02, 2022, in Seoul.
Pool | Getty Images News | Getty Images
In contrast, DP's Lee supports Moon's approach of diplomatic engagement and economic cooperation with North Korea as a means of initiating denuclearization. He also supports easing existing sanctions if North Korea complies. Unlike Yoon, Lee is also open to declaring an end to the Korean war in order to bring Pyongyang back to the negotiating table.
However, despite sharing similar perspectives, analysts said, Lee is unlikely to copy Moon's policies. "While Moon was personally heavily invested in engineering an inter-Korean summit, and trying to build sustainable, cooperative relations with North Korea, Lee is more likely to uphold the principle of peaceful coexistence while being reluctant to expend too much political capital on trying to achieve it, especially if Pyongyang is uncooperative," Jenny Town, a senior fellow at independent think tank Stimson Center, told CNBC. Town is also the director of the Center's North Korea-focused research arm, 38 North.
Further complicating matters is Yoon's emphasis on resuming joint military exercises with the United States. These have been scaled down since 2018, "owing to North Korea's perception of these manoeuvres as preparation for war," Fei Xue, Asia analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, told CNBC. A revival is thus likely to anger Kim Jong Un. Yoon's position is "harsh enough to make North Korea abandon diplomacy altogether, as it was the case during the tenures of Lee and Park," Khang X. Vu, a doctoral student and East Asian politics specialist at Boston College, wrote in a note published by the Lowy Institute.
VIDEO2:2302:23
Ex-diplomat discusses South Korean presidential candidates' foreign policy
China and the U.S.
A wave of anti-China uproar has been sweeping across South Korean media in recent weeks following controversies surrounding the Winter Olympics in Beijing. Combined with broader concerns about Beijing's aggressive stance toward its neighbors in the South China Sea and the Indo-Pacific, the Asian giant has become a central talking point in this election. South Korea's position on China is also closely linked to its relationship with the United States, given Beijing and Washington's historical rivalry, meaning Seoul often finds itself in a position of prioritizing one of the two superpowers.
"Lee is expected to adhere to a relationship of strategic ambiguity with China, wanting to balance security and economic relations," said Town. Like Moon, Lee understands that he needs Chinese support on both the North Korea issue as well as on the economic front. "Lee Jae-myung is more concerned about China's economic influence on South Korea, and will therefore adopt a more neutral stance," echoed Xue. "However, the intensifying tensions between the US and China will make this approach increasingly difficult to hold," Xue added.
Yoon Seok-Youl delivers his speech after winning the People Power Party's final race to choose its presidential candidate for South Korea's 2022 election on Nov. 5, 2021, in Seoul.
Pool | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Yoon, meanwhile, seeks stronger security cooperation with the U.S., specifically calling for additional Terminal High Altitude Area Defense deployments, which is sure to spark economic punishment from China. The installation of the U.S. anti-missile system in South Korea led to a year-long standoff between Beijing and Seoul from 2016 to 2017, with South Korea's tourism, cosmetics and entertainment industries reeling from Chinese backlash. Yoon also wants to apply for membership of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue as well as participate in the Five Eyes intelligence sharing program "despite possible China's opposition to such moves," said Xue. Yoon's willingness to overtly side with the U.S. will be questioned, however, "if or when China starts to apply pressure on Seoul," Town said.
Japan
Relations with Tokyo have worsened under the current Moon Jae-in administration owing to trade spats and unresolved issues over Japan's colonial rule over Korea from 1910 to 1945. The latter include matters such as Japan's procurement of South Korean women for military brothels. Kang Chang-il, South Korea's ambassador to Japan, said in January that bilateral ties were at their "worst" level since 1965.
That's expected to improve under a conservative regime. In a televised debate last month, Yoon said Seoul's relationship with Washington and Tokyo deteriorated because of "submissive diplomacy that is pro-China and pro-North Korea," adding that he would change that dynamic. Yoon is widely expected to set aside historical disputes with Japan in order to resolve bilateral trade conflicts and forge closer security cooperation, several experts told CNBC.
While Lee agrees on the importance for South Korea and Japan to improve bilateral relations and is open to talks, he insists that Japan make efforts to properly address historical disputes.
An increase in regional tension brought about by China's assertiveness, US efforts to contain China, or North Korea's long-range missile and nuclear tests, will shrink the number of policy options that the next South Korean president can pursue.
Khang X. Vu
doctoral student and East Asian politics specialist
The nature of Asian geopolitics
While each candidate offers fundamentally different views on inter-Korean relations and U.S.-China rivalry, several analysts said the dynamics of Asia-Pacific security and politics don't allow for great shifts in foreign policy.
"An increase in regional tension brought about by China's assertiveness, US efforts to contain China, or North Korea's long-range missile and nuclear tests, will shrink the number of policy options that the next South Korean president can pursue," Vu wrote in his note. "Unfortunately, such a deterioration in regional dynamics is increasingly likely."
Stimson Center's Town said: "Even in trying to cultivate deeper relations with other middle powers, as South Korea is currently trying to do to create some buffer for itself amid rising US-China rivalry, this is a long term process." She added: "In the near- to mid-term, South Korea will continue to find itself in a strategic dilemma as it works to navigate US-China competition while bolstering its own defences against significant improvements in North Korea's weapons capabilities."
CNBC · by Nyshka Chandran · March 4, 2022
5. The Ukraine lesson (for South korea)
South Korea has to step out and step up:
South Korea cannot continue to endlessly be the shrimp that squabbles among itself, and then also squabbles endlessly with the other shrimp of Korea, while the whales are circling each other menacingly. Korea must decide what it wants. And persuade the whales it has the power and will to enforce what it wants. If it can clearly articulate what it wants, it can get U.S. support. If all Korea appears to do is squabble, then the U.S. will always prioritize its own analysis of the situation.
Whoever wins on March 9 had a historic choice: continue the squabbling and hope that in the coming decades no whale does to Korea what Russia is doing to Ukraine; or launch a serious South-South dialogue with the party of his defeated opponent to determine a detailed strategy for a North-South dialogue, and a way of peaceful coexistence and maybe eventual reunification, that can withstand the five-year election cycle in the South. And then take control of the Korean peninsula’s future with the assistance of the U.S. ally, with the goal of maximizing the independence and prosperity of all Koreans, North and South, for the rest of the 21st Century.
Thursday
March 3, 2022
The Ukraine lesson
Spencer H. Kim
The author is CEO of CBOL Corp., a California aerospace company. He is a co-founder of the Pacific Century Institute and a member of the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations.
The event dominating the international news as Korea’s presidential campaign reaches its conclusion is Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Koreans, while disturbed by the news, probably think it doesn’t mean much to them, except perhaps a rise in the price of some things.
But Koreans should look at the news as yet another example of a great lesson for their country. Ukraine became the object of big country politics and power projection. Even a few years ago it didn’t seem anything really bad could happen. But then it did.
Koreans all know the saying, “When whales fight, the shrimp’s back is broken.” They think it applies to their sad national history. But somehow they stubbornly refuse to think through what is needed to prevent a broken back the next time whales fight.
Korea is the smallest country in Northeast Asia, and its division in two makes it even smaller. It is geographically surrounded by three whales and the South is formally allied to another whale.
Meanwhile, through tough rhetoric, the two main presidential candidates appear to argue incompatible strategies for South Korea going forward, with the prospect of possibly flip flopping strategies every five years. So the stubbornness may continue. But can the winner — no matter which of the two frontrunners it is — finally give up the stubbornness and start to build a consensus on how Korea can prevent being a Ukraine in the future?
Or will Korea remain the Korea of the past — again, and again? Korea’s history is one of internal divisions while others decided its fate. Perhaps worst was at the end of the 19th Century when internal squabbling led to a failure to modernize and colonization by the whale Japan. In 1945, colonization was only ended by the actions of other whales, the U.S. and the USSR. They divided Korea into two for their own reasons. In 1949, both the US and USSR left Korea, but instead of uniting, the North attacked the South. The U.S. whale saved the South and tried to unite the country. But the Chinese whale saved the North. And the two shrimp Koreas have remained squabbling ever since.
When it has found consensus, South Korea has been able to use its whale alliance to its benefit. From the mid-1960s onward, all parties in Korea supported education and economic development. While there were often very bitter disputes about details, there was no dispute over the goal. Korea got U.S. buy in and the U.S. provided a good portion of national defense, freeing up resources for economic development, and investment capital and markets for increasingly sophisticated Korean products, as well as advanced technological education. Korea explained clearly what it wanted, and the U.S. helped.
Likewise, after Korea’s democratization, all parties supported the country’s outreach and integration into the world. The U.S. supported Nordpolitik, relations with China and Russia, and entrance to the UN and the OECD. Korea told the U.S. what it wanted, and the U.S. helped.
Korea now faces a changing geopolitical environment. The dramatic rise of the whale China is the biggest story of the 21st Century. How is Korea to position itself for dealing with that rise? How can both the North and the South end the diversion of their resources to squabbling? How do the two shrimps protect themselves from the four whales?
The first step has to be finding a strategic consensus in South Korea — a South-South dialogue. What is the goal, what are the key elements necessary to reach the goal? Only after that is achieved can the South then find a strategic consensus with the North. And only then can the people of the Korean peninsula maximize their independence of action and ensure they are making the key decisions about their future and not the whales. And if Korea can explain clearly what it wants, it can achieve U.S. buy in and assistance. But the U.S. has to know what Korea wants — not what it says it wants in this election, but what might change by the next election.
Although the candidates seem to be far apart on strategy because of the heated tone of the rhetoric between them, they might not actually be that far apart. Both candidates laid out their views for the U.S. magazine Foreign Affairs. There might be more overlap than it seems.
Lee Jae-myung says an all-or-nothing approach to dealing with the North will not work and the North should be incentivized to take meaningful steps. “This does not mean that sanctions should be eased immediately,” but significant steps by the North can be met with “phased” sanctions relief, which could be “immediately restored” if the North fails to follow through.
Lee calls for a strong continued alliance with the U.S.
Interestingly, Yoon Suk-yeol argued in his Foreign Affairs piece that sanctions “might be eased in line with verifiable and irreversible steps Pyongyang must take toward denuclearization” with Seoul setting clear “parameters” and “corresponding measures” for such steps.
Yoon also called for a strong continued alliance with the U.S.
South Korea cannot continue to endlessly be the shrimp that squabbles among itself, and then also squabbles endlessly with the other shrimp of Korea, while the whales are circling each other menacingly. Korea must decide what it wants. And persuade the whales it has the power and will to enforce what it wants. If it can clearly articulate what it wants, it can get U.S. support. If all Korea appears to do is squabble, then the U.S. will always prioritize its own analysis of the situation.
Whoever wins on March 9 had a historic choice: continue the squabbling and hope that in the coming decades no whale does to Korea what Russia is doing to Ukraine; or launch a serious South-South dialogue with the party of his defeated opponent to determine a detailed strategy for a North-South dialogue, and a way of peaceful coexistence and maybe eventual reunification, that can withstand the five-year election cycle in the South. And then take control of the Korean peninsula’s future with the assistance of the U.S. ally, with the goal of maximizing the independence and prosperity of all Koreans, North and South, for the rest of the 21st Century.
6. South Korean Presidential Candidates Accused of Politicizing Ukraine War
South Korean Presidential Candidates Accused of Politicizing Ukraine War
South Korean Presidential Candidates Accused of Politicizing Ukraine War
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On February 24, the first images of Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine began to traverse the world, striking up international sympathy. Much of the world denounced the war crimes committed by Vladimir Putin and enforced sanctions on the Kremlin. Koreans, too, were outraged by the atrocities committed by Putin, empathizing with the plights of Ukrainian refugees.
But Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine also sparked controversy closer to home. Many Koreans were incensed by the controversial remarks of politicians – including the two leading candidates in next week’s presidential election – regarding the war in Ukraine.
During the presidential debate held on February 25, Lee Jae-myung, the candidate from the ruling Democratic Party, put his foot in his mouth. He claimed that Volodymyr Zelenskyy, “who lacked knowledge in politics and diplomacy, provoked Russia. The Ukraine president is responsible for the outbreak of war.”
Online posts condemning Lee’s crass comments quickly circulated on Reddit. Most users rebuked him.
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Alas, Lee was not the only South Korean politician who made provocative remarks on the war in Ukraine. Choo Mi-ae, the former minister of justice, asserted that “the former comedian’s [Zelenskyy’s] foolish attitude towards Russia is the culprit of the war. He provoked the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine.”
Lee and Choo also claimed that the war in Ukraine proves that their position on national security, which include abandoning an arms build-up and pursuing peace talks with North Korea, are the only answer.
After facing fierce criticism against their comments about the war, Lee offered an apology for his careless comments. Many voters, however, questioned whether his apology was sincere or a thinly veiled attempt to prevent the loss of votes ahead of the presidential election.
While citizens slammed Lee for his remarks, Yoon Suk-yeol, the presidential candidate from the opposite People Power Party, blasted Lee for defaming the president of Ukraine, offering an apology for Lee’s remarks about Ukraine as a candidate of the presidential election in Korea.
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But Yoon’s social media posts suggested that his apology was also just a ploy to prevent the loss of votes. On February 24, when Russia invaded Ukraine, Yoon cited the war in Ukraine as evidence that Lee’s views on national security, particularly his policies toward Pyongyang, are wrong.
On Facebook, Yoon blamed Ukraine’s failure to join NATO for the outbreak of war. South Korea’s ironclad alliance with the United States, he added, is the only answer for the security of the Korean Peninsula and preventing the outbreak of war between two Koreas. Yoon took advantage of the war in Ukraine to suggest that Korea, which is still technically at war, risks suffering the horrors of war once again – unless Yoon is elected president, of course.
Then, on March 1, Yoon’s official Twitter account posted a message that Korea stands with Ukraine. But the Twitter post was severely criticized for including a photo of a tangerine upon which someone had drawn a cartoon-character-like face. Many citizens and some foreign journalists decried the conservative presidential candidate for ridiculing the war.
On March 3, Lee and Yoon apologized for their blunders by having a meeting with Dmytro Ponomarenko, the ambassador of Ukraine in Seoul.
But that will not make voters forget that both men politicized the tragic war for their own political gain, being keen to win voters by demonizing each other. Particularly, both attempted to leverage the war to win support for their own national security policies.
In the 1950s, Korea was severely damaged by the Korean War, in which millions of people lost their lives. The fratricidal war taught Koreans firsthand that war is a humanitarian crisis that takes decades to recover from. Nothing can justify war. But it seemed the two leading presidential candidates did not learn from the Korean War the basic lesson of empathy for others suffering in a similar conflict.
7. North Korean nuclear weapons program 'primed for expansion,' report says
Has there ever been a let up in north Korean nuclear development?
North Korean nuclear weapons program 'primed for expansion,' report says
By Thomas Maresca
North Korea is continuing to operate its Yongbyon nuclear facility, a new report said Friday, and may be poised to expand its nuclear weapons capacity. Photo by EPA-EFE/Yonhap
SEOUL, March 4 (UPI) -- Activity at North Korea's Yongbyon nuclear facility, where the secretive state makes fissile material for nuclear weapons, is in "full swing" and looks to be growing, a report said Friday.
Commercial satellite imagery shows the ongoing production of plutonium and uranium at the Yongbyon site as well as construction of new buildings and personnel housing, according to the report by U.S.-based monitoring website 38 North.
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The activities "suggest that the complex is primed for expansion," the report said.
North Korea has not tested a nuclear weapon or launched an intercontinental ballistic missile since 2017, but leader Kim Jong Un has raised concerns after suggesting in January that he may be ready to lift a self-imposed moratorium.
Pyongayang restarted Yongbyon's 5MWe nuclear reactor last July after a hiatus of more than 2 1/2 years, according to the U.N.'s International Atomic Emergency Agency. Work also appears to be continuing at a second reactor which could significantly upgrade North Korea's ability to produce material for its nuclear weapons.
The facility's experimental light water reactor, begun in 2010, "might be approaching its inauguration," the report said.
"If the ELWR becomes operational, as it appears to be nearing completion, North Korea's plutonium production capacity could increase substantially," the report concluded.
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It added, however, that additional modifications to other facilities would still be necessary to take advantage of the increased production.
North Korea has ramped up the pace of its missile program in 2022, with a record seven launches in January -- including long-range cruise missiles, an alleged hypersonic weapon and an intermediate-range ballistic missile that was its biggest weapons test in more than four years.
After a hiatus that observers believed was tied to Beijing's Winter Olympics in February, North Korea resumed activity on Sunday with a medium-range ballistic missile launch that it claimed was a spy satellite test.
8. North Korean workers in Russia feel financial sting from Ukraine invasion
Excerpts:
In the Russian Far East city of Vladivostok, about 20,000 North Korean workers are suffering financially due to the war more than 4,500 miles away, another Russian of Korean descent there told RFA.
“North Korean workers here start their work at 7 in the morning and work nonstop until late at night, except for lunch and dinner breaks. Once the ruble crashed because of the war, it became impossible to pay the North Korean government quota and still have enough for living expenses,” he said.
“Prior to the start of the war between Russia and Ukraine, the exchange rate was stable at around 70 rubles per dollar. These days, it is over 110 rubles per dollar. If this trend continues, the real value of North Korean workers’ wages in Russia will be a fraction of what it was before the war.”
North Korean labor exports were supposed to have stopped when United Nations nuclear sanctions froze the issuance of work visas and mandated the repatriation of North Korean nationals working abroad by the end of 2019.
But Pyongyang sometimes dispatches workers to China and Russia on short-term student or visitor visas to get around sanctions.
North Korean workers in Russia feel financial sting from Ukraine invasion
North Koreans working in Russia are suffering collateral damage from their host country’s invasion of Ukraine, as the ruble’s collapse has made their earnings close to worthless while they still have to send U.S. dollars back to Pyongyang.
An estimated 20,000 North Koreans have been dispatched to Russia to earn foreign cash for the regime. Pyongyang sets a quota for each worker in U.S. dollars and keeps the lion’s share of the wages the workers earn while abroad.
Until the Russian military invaded Ukraine last week, the ruble had been relatively stable, but the currency’s crash has left some workers bordering on destitution, sources said.
The ruble lost nearly a third of its value against the dollar, falling below one cent this week as a result newly imposed sanctions over the Ukraine invasion.
“After the Western world imposed strong economic sanctions on Russia the ruble and the workers’ salaries have been essentially halved,” a Russian citizen of Korean descent from St. Petersburg, in the country’s northwest, told RFA’s Korean Service March 1.
“Right after the outbreak of the war, the ruble began crashing. The North Koreans here cannot afford their own accommodations, let alone saving any income,” said the source, who requested anonymity for security reasons.
“They barely made a living at all [before the war] because they were paying the North Korean government its cut each month. North Korean human resources companies are in a panic because of the ruble’s plunge. They have even begun skimping on meals to save money so they can meet their annual assignment,” he said.
Before sending the money to North Korea, the job firms must convert the rubles their workers earn into dollars. And after the government takes its cut, the companies must again divide the wages.
“They pay a commission to the local broker who arranged the job. Then they cover their living expenses of the workers. The remaining money after these fees are paid are given to the individual workers for their monthly salary,” the source said.
“As the war with Ukraine began, the ruble sunk lower and lower with each passing day. After converting into dollars to pay their home country and paying brokerage fees, the remaining money is not even enough to purchase food for the workers,” he said.
The source said he knew of about 3,000 workers in their 20s and 30s dispatched by Pyongyang to work on construction sites in and around St. Petersburg and Moscow.
“There is absolutely no possibility that the North Korean authorities will lower the amount of money that the workers are assigned to pay. They will not consider the Russian-Ukraine war or the trends of the local exchange rate,” he said.
“The state-assigned money for North Korean human resource companies varies slightly from one company to another. The average quota one worker pays is about $7,000 to $8,000 per year.”
In the Russian Far East city of Vladivostok, about 20,000 North Korean workers are suffering financially due to the war more than 4,500 miles away, another Russian of Korean descent there told RFA.
“North Korean workers here start their work at 7 in the morning and work nonstop until late at night, except for lunch and dinner breaks. Once the ruble crashed because of the war, it became impossible to pay the North Korean government quota and still have enough for living expenses,” he said.
“Prior to the start of the war between Russia and Ukraine, the exchange rate was stable at around 70 rubles per dollar. These days, it is over 110 rubles per dollar. If this trend continues, the real value of North Korean workers’ wages in Russia will be a fraction of what it was before the war.”
North Korean labor exports were supposed to have stopped when United Nations nuclear sanctions froze the issuance of work visas and mandated the repatriation of North Korean nationals working abroad by the end of 2019.
But Pyongyang sometimes dispatches workers to China and Russia on short-term student or visitor visas to get around sanctions.
Translated by Claire Lee. Written in English by Eugene Whong.
9. Korea's Per-Capita Income Reaches $35,000
Korea's Per-Capita Income Reaches $35,000
Korea's per-capita gross national income surpassed US$35,000 for the first time last year.
According to the Bank of Korea on Thursday, the country's per-capita GNI jumped 10.3 percent to $35,168 in 2021, four years after it exceeded the $30,000 mark.
Finance Minister Hong Nam-ki on Facebook said the increase is a "remarkable achievement" considering that it was achieved during the pandemic.
Per-capita GNI shrank from $33,564 in 2018 to $32,204 in 2019 and $31,881 in 2020 before rebounding, so compared to 2018 it has risen only 4.8 percent or 1.8 percent growth per year.
A main factor that drove up GNI was the three-percent strengthening of the Korean won against the U.S. dollar last year, whereas in won terms it rose just seven percent.
Meanwhile, Korea's economic growth in the fourth quarter of last year was 1.2 percent, 0.1 percentage points higher than the BOK's preliminary tally last month.
The central bank said the discrepancy was due to "upward revisions of service and goods export." The annualized economic growth rate for 2021 remained unchanged at four percent.
That is the highest rate of growth since 2010's 6.8 percent, but the economy had shrunk 0.09 percent in 2020 due to the pandemic and rebounded largely due to massive pump-priming last year when government spending jumped 5.5 percent, compared to just a 3.6 percent rise in private consumption.
10. Inside Vladimir Putin And Kim Jong-Un's Relationship
I hear they have the same psychotherapist. (note attempt at humor)
Inside Vladimir Putin And Kim Jong-Un's Relationship
Fotosr52/Shutterstock
By /March 3, 2022 10:26 am EST
Despite the Russian capital city of Moscow being nearly 4,000 miles from the North Korean capital of Pyongyang, the two countries actually share a border. After all, Russia is the biggest country in the world. In the far eastern side of Russia, a small stretch of land near the port city of Vladivostok meets the northeast corner of North Korea.
This shared border dates back to before the Soviet Union as Russia first took over its present-day southeastern edge in the mid-19th century, according to WorldAtlas. At the time, the area was simply Korea, rather than the two Korean nations of today. A brutal Japanese occupation that occurred at the start of the 20th century shifted this shared border until the end of World War II. At this time, Russian involvement with Korea became more than a border, as the Soviet Union took over the northern part of the peninsula and the United States took over the southern part after Japan's surrender (via Vox).
Joseph Stalin was a mentor to Kim Il-Sung
Wojtek Laski/Getty Images
According to a 1983 master's thesis ("North Korean Relations with China and the Soviet Union: The Impacts of Changes in the Leadership of the Two Communist Powers on North Korea," posted by Eastern Illinois University) North Korea's relationship with the Soviet Union deepened further. While still under Soviet occupation, its formal name became the Democratic People's Republic of Korea in 1948. Soviet leader Joseph Stalin saw the area of North Korea as important for Russian security in its eastern territory. With mentorship from Stalin, North Korean leader Kim Il-Sung (above) made North Korea communist. This Soviet and Chinese-backed North invaded the U.S.-backed South in 1950, sparking the Korean War. This war led to the present-day border between North and South Korea.
After Stalin's death, however, North Korea began to align itself more with the Chinese than with the Russians. In retaliation, Stalin's successor, Nikita Khrushchev, pulled back on assistance to North Korea. As North Korea attempted to be self-sufficient, it still relied on economic aid from the Chinese and the Russians throughout the 20th century. The collapse of the Soviet Union by the early 1990s resulted in the withdrawal of even more economic aid and renegotiations surrounding North Korea's debt to the Russians (via the Council on Foreign Relations).
Putin met with Kim Jong-Un in 2019
Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images
From its inception in 1948 and up to its 21st century leadership, as Vox explains, leaders of North Korea have been basically monarchical. Leadership has been passed down from Kim Il-Sung to his son Kim Jong-Il, who passed the torch to his son Kim Jong-Un. Contrary to its formal name, North Korea is not democratic.
Since Vladimir Putin's election to a third term as president of Russia in 2012, talks with North Korea have entered a new phase. Putin did not meet with Kim Jong-Un until 2019. Kim's meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump in 2018 preceded this, and perhaps spurred Kim's meeting with Putin and with China's Xi Xinping. Doug Bandow of The National Interest explains that this meeting with Putin was "mostly symbolic." However, Russia holds veto power in the United Nations regarding sanctions on the Koreans and opposes North Korea's nuclear build-up. Nevertheless, the capital of Pyongyang could eventually possess more than a hundred nukes.
The United States has economic sanctions against North Korea
lunopark/Shutterstock
Though the meeting between President Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-Un was only for a few hours in 2019, the two leaders had a champagne toast and seemed friendly (via The Guardian). Kim likely hoped to get economic support from Russia, given that most support was still only from China and that the United States had long-standing economic sanctions on North Korea. Even Kim's meeting with President Trump in Hanoi did not offer much optimism for an end to U.S. attempts to keep North Korea isolated (via 38 North).
A key topic at Putin's meeting with Kim was the international sanctions imposed upon North Korea. The Council on Foreign Relations stated that Putin did not suggest any weakening of these sanctions, as Russia serves a significant role in the U.N.'s decisions regarding them. Despite this, Russia has violated some of the sanction agreements by shipping North Korean coal, oil, and petroleum exports to other countries and allowing North Koreans to work in Russia. Allowing them to work in Russia violates the sanctions because the sanctions prohibit North Koreans from earning any foreign currency.
Russia has nuclear weapons of its own
Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images
Denuclearization was another significant topic in the meeting, a topic that Vladimir Putin and the United States both support. Putin's stance on denuclearization contrasted with the fears held by some in the United States that Putin might try to use the summit to complicate the American efforts to push North Korea to denuclearize. In reality, Russia would prefer to eliminate the possibility for conflict so close by. Keeping North Korea from creating nuclear weapons also prevents competition for Russia's own nuclear arsenal as explained by Artyom Lukin for 38 North.
Other than denuclearization, Putin had few pressing issues to take into this meeting, seeking only to perhaps reestablish Russia's role as a major player on the Korean Peninsula. In the years leading up to the meeting, China and the U.S. have had more influence on North Korea, the former being in assistance with oil supplies and the latter being in formal lack of assistance in the form of its economic sanctions.
Putin and Kim Jong-Un have only met once
Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images
After the meeting, Vladimir Putin stated that he and Kim Jong-Un discussed "prospects for developing bilateral ties." As for a final word on nuclear weaponry, Putin said that leader Kim Jong-un would require "security guarantees" in order to get rid of his nuclear projects. The two did not announce any agreements, but the overall tone was more friendly than that of Kim's 2018 meeting with President Donald Trump. No agreements were made with that meeting, either (via The Guardian).
Perhaps the 2019 summit served only to create the appearance of a friendly relationship, because as of 2022, it has been the only meeting between Putin and Kim. U.S. envoy for North Korea policy Sung Kim and Russian vice foreign minister Igor Morgulov both had separate talks with South Korea counterpart Noh Kyu-duk in August of 2021 but there were no meetings between any North Korean representatives and American ones. Around the same time, Russia discussed the need for multilateral conversations surrounding nuclear power (per The National Interest), suggesting that North Korea has remained in the conscience of Putin.
11. U.S. senators voice concern over possible use of cryptocurrency by N. Korea to evade sanctions
A key capability for support Kim Jong-un's Royal Court Economy
U.S. senators voice concern over possible use of cryptocurrency by N. Korea to evade sanctions | Yonhap News Agency
SEOUL, March 4 (Yonhap) -- A group of U.S. senators has expressed concerns over the possibility of such "adversaries" as North Korea and Russia using cryptocurrency to evade international sanctions and urged relevant authorities to ensure strong enforcement of sanctions compliance in the cryptocurrency industry.
In a joint letter sent to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Wednesday (Washington time) amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine, four senators -- Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Mark Warner (D-VA), Sherrod Brown (D-OH) and Jack Reed (D-RI) -- pointed out that "rogue states" and other actors could use digital currency to conceal cross-border transactions for "nefarious purposes."
"Given the need to ensure the efficacy and integrity of our sanctions program against Russia and other adversaries, we are seeking information on the steps Treasury is taking to enforce sanctions compliance by the cryptocurrency industry," it read. "Strong enforcement of sanctions compliance in the cryptocurrency industry is critical given that digital assets, which allow entities to bypass the traditional financial system, may increasingly be used as a tool for sanctions evasion."
The letter cited a U.N. report last month that North Korea used stolen cryptocurrency possibly worth as much as US$400 million to fund its nuclear and ballistic missile program.
(END)
12. S. Korea wins exemption from U.S' Foreign Direct Product Rule regarding exports to Russia
(4th LD) S. Korea wins exemption from U.S' Foreign Direct Product Rule regarding exports to Russia | Yonhap News Agency
(ATTN: ADDS Seoul's follow-up measures in paras 9-13, additional photo)
By Oh Seok-min and Byun Duk-kun
SEOUL/WASHINGTON, March 4 (Yonhap) -- South Korea won an exemption from the United States' expanded export restrictions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, Seoul's industry ministry said Friday.
The move came as South Korea's Trade Minister Yeo Han-koo met with senior U.S. officials in Washington on Thursday and the two sides agreed to include South Korea in the U.S.' list of exempt countries.
Last week, the U.S. government announced the Foreign Direct Product Rule (FDPR) for "all of Russia" as part of its export controls to block Russia's access to global high-tech products and other foreign-produced major items, such as semiconductors, over the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The measure calls on companies to receive a license from the U.S. for tech-related items using U.S. technology before they can be shipped to Russia, which is feared to affect major South Korean exporters, as they use U.S. technology and software.
Yeo welcomed the U.S.' decision to exempt South Korea from the FDPR, saying the countries "have once again reaffirmed their strong cooperation."
The trade minister added the U.S. has agreed to publish Seoul's exemption from the FDPR in its government notice on Friday (Washington time) at the earliest.
South Korea is now included on the list of 33 nations, which includes the European Union, Britain and Japan.
"The U.S. assessed that South Korea's sanctions against Russia are well-aligned with the international standard and announced its decision to put South Korea on the list of FDPR exempt nations," the industry ministry said in a release.
Following the U.S.' move, the Seoul government began taking follow-up measures of toughening its own export restrictions against Russia.
It decided to ban exports to 49 Russian organizations and firms, including Russia's defense ministry, in accordance with the U.S.' Entity List for export controls.
Under the measure, a license is required to export or transfer major items to these entities, with limited exceptions.
Seoul's industry ministry also began work to revise rules on export license requirements for 57 non-strategic items that come under the FDP rules.
"The revision is supposed to take around two to three months, but we will expedite related procedures to wrap it up within one to two months, given relations with the U.S.," a ministry official said.
Earlier this week, South Korea announced its decision to halt financial transactions with seven major Russian banks and their affiliates slapped with U.S. sanctions, joining the global move to remove Russia from the SWIFT global payment network.
South Korea also decided to ban exports of strategic items to Russia while strongly recommending local public and financial institutions halt their investment in Russian government bonds issued from Wednesday.
The foreign ministry said Seoul and Washington will continue close consultations on the implementation of sanctions against Moscow.
"South Korea and the U.S. will continue to closely discuss various diplomatic and economic measures for a resolution to the Ukraine crisis, including the implementation of sanctions against Russia," a ministry official told reporters on the customary condition of anonymity.
During Thursday's meetings with the U.S. officials, Minister Yeo also called on the U.S. to swiftly begin talks to revise the Section 232 tariff rules on Seoul's steel exports.
Last month, the U.S. and Japan announced their agreement to remove tariffs from Japanese steel imports starting April after Washington granted similar access for European Union steelmakers late last year.
The U.S. waived the tariffs on South Korean steel products in 2018, but it was in return for a yearly import quota of 2.63 million tons of steel, or 70 percent of Seoul's average steel products export volume over the past three years.
(END)
13. How North Korea Could Exploit Russia's War Against Ukraine
Yes this is a no brainer possibility. However, I believe the regime would continue to develop its nuclear and missile programs as well as advanced warfighting capabilities whether Russia attacked Ukraine or not.
How North Korea Could Exploit Russia's War Against Ukraine
North Korea always moves on its own timetable, but it might decide that the Ukraine crisis offers useful cover while it ramps up its testing program.
The war in Ukraine is absorbing Washington’s attention and resources, leaving it able to do little else. However, North Korea is once again attempting to force its way into the national conversation. Or instead, Pyongyang is counting on Ukraine to divert America’s attention from its continuing missile and nuclear programs. It’s difficult to discern which is true, but much might depend on the answer.
Russia’s threats against and subsequent invasion of Ukraine wiped most other international news from the front pages of the newspapers. Although long an apparent publicity hound, Kim Jong-un disappeared into the media black hole. For the first time in many years, nuclear Armageddon seemed to threaten Europe rather than Northeast Asia, courtesy of Moscow’s nuclear alert.
Then the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) launched another ballistic missile. Although only a short-range shot, it followed a flurry of seven tests of nine missiles in January. The hiatus was likely to avoid embarrassing China during the Olympics.
All parties played their predictable roles. Outgoing South Korean president Moon Jae-in called the launch “deeply worrisome and regrettable” and held a national security council meeting. One sensed his personal frustration at the collapse of inter-Korean dialogue when his office criticized the North’s action “despite our patience and the joint efforts by us and the United States to find a diplomatic solution.”
Similarly, the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command criticized North Korea and urged Pyongyang to desist from taking such destabilizing steps in the future. Indo-Pacific Command also ritualistically declared that America’s defense commitment to Seoul and Tokyo “remains ironclad.”
At the same time, the DPRK reaffirmed its relationship with its major patrons, China and Russia. After the end of the Beijing Olympics last week, Kim offered his congratulations to China for having overcome an “unprecedentedly severe health crisis and the hostile forces' maneuvers.” He said the two governments were “frustrating the undisguised hostile policy and military threat of the U.S. and its satellite forces.” No Chinese response was reported, but more important was its continued silence in the face of multiple missile tests. The bilateral relationship remains much closer than before the flurry of Kim-Xi summits began in 2018.
The DPRK also supported Russia in its invasion of Ukraine. The North Korean Foreign Ministry posted a commentary which claimed that “the basic cause of the Ukraine incident lies in the high-handedness and arbitrariness of the United States, which has ignored Russia’s legitimate calls for security guarantees and only sought a global hegemony and military dominance while clinging to its sanctions campaigns.” The assessment went on to accuse Washington of “double standards” and “arrogance,” both of which are familiar criticisms. Although Pyongyang has relations with Ukraine, Moscow’s role in helping to bust sanctions is undoubtedly more important to Kim at the moment.
The common policy assessment is that the North is seeking Washington’s attention. After all, the DPRK seemed well down the list of Biden administration priorities last year, with its emphasis on domestic issues, forced attention to political challenges, and international focus on Afghanistan, China, and Iran. And then came the Ukraine crisis, which has become almost all-absorbing.
This is a plausible thesis, but it will take more than a few short-range missile tests to get a hearing from the Biden administration. More important, so far there is no indication that Kim wants contact with Washington. The DPRK ignored several administration efforts to engage last year. That followed an almost complete foreign disconnect after the failed 2019 Trump-Kim summit in Hanoi. The North also ended ties with Seoul.
More likely is the opposite possibility, that the North hopes to avoid challenge from America as it moves ahead on the weapons wish list that Kim previously presented. The DPRK’s objective is to enhance its security and leverage. By increasing the quality and quantity of its nuclear arsenal, the North would increase both its deterrent capabilities and bargaining position, allowing it to retain a sizable weapons stockpile while pushing to lift sanctions.
Pyongyang might have decided that this is a perfect time to forge ahead because the Biden administration is preoccupied, most recently by the Ukraine imbroglio. The latest short-range test caused barely a peep in Washington. Focused on punishing Russia and perhaps still hoping to separate Beijing from Moscow, the administration is unlikely to impose any significant new sanctions or other initiatives involving North Korea.
More challenging is the possibility of Pyongyang returning to test long-range missiles and nuclear weapons, in abeyance, respectively, since November and September 2017. Although there is no indication that any such tests are planned, the regime has suggested that it will end its voluntary moratorium. Moreover, some analysts view the intermediate-range missile test in January as presaging an ICBM launch. The North’s deterrent won’t be complete until it is able to target the American mainland. Kim’s challenge is to finalize that capability without triggering a reprise of Donald Trump’s “fire and fury” campaign.
Kim Jong-un might have decided that now is the opportunity. Observed Evans Revere, formerly of the State Department: “The North Koreans may think Washington is distracted and stretched by the Russian invasion and will not be able to respond vigorously, or at all, if the DPRK resumes testing of longer-range missiles.” Moreover, even if displeased by such a test, neither Beijing nor Moscow seems currently disposed to support additional sanctions or increase enforcement of existing ones. With Washington at such odds with Russia, the administration will have little leverage against China, especially if Beijing threatens to provide sanctions-busting assistance to Moscow.
Moreover, the Republic of Korea will soon face a governmental transition. If the ruling party triumphs, the new administration will likely oppose a harsh response even to renewed ICBM or nuclear testing. If the opposition wins, little action can be expected before the new government takes over and officials are appointed. Washington might be reluctant to act during that time.
Whatever its plan, the DPRK has the initiative. It always moves on its own timetable, but it might decide that the Ukraine crisis offers useful cover while it ramps up its testing program. The Biden administration might then find itself facing two simultaneous foreign crises and a looming mid-term election.
North Korea’s latest missile test provides a reminder that the Biden administration will enjoy no let-up in other foreign challenges as the Russo-Ukraine war threatens Europe’s peace. Kim told a gathering of the Workers’ Party of Korea in December that “the military environment of the Korean peninsula and the trend of the international situation getting instable day after day demand that bolstering the state defense capability be further powerfully propelled without a moment's delay.”
This suggests that even more, and perhaps more provocative, tests will be forthcoming. And the Biden administration’s next big foreign policy test is already brewing.
Doug Bandow is a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute. A former Special Assistant to President Ronald Reagan, he is author of several books, including Tripwire: Korea and U.S. Foreign Policy in a Changed World and co-author of The Korean Conundrum: America’s Troubled Relations with North and South Korea.
Image: Reuters.
14. North Korea Kept Ukraine Invasion Secret to All Except Ruling Party Members
No surprise here.
North Korea Kept Ukraine Invasion Secret to All Except Ruling Party Members
March 03, 2022 3:11 AM
Radio Free Asia
North Korean authorities waited days to tell the nation about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, first informing only members of the ruling Korean Workers’ Party in private meetings, who later spread the word, government officials told RFA.
In North Korea’s one-party state, membership in the Workers’ Party is reserved for the privileged or for exemplary soldiers who complete long mandatory stints in the armed forces.
The Russian military began its large-scale invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, but it wasn’t until two days later that Pyongyang told the party members.
“Yesterday, each regional party committee in the province informed all the party members that our strong ally Russia was at war,” an official from the northwestern province of North Pyongan told RFA’s Korean Service on Feb. 27.
“International relations are strained with Russia at war, so the regional party committee demanded that everyone be ready to be mobilized at all times,” the source said.
The Soviet Union helped establish North Korea in 1948 after occupying the northern half of the Korean peninsula following Japan’s defeat in World War II, installing as leader the grandfather of current leader Kim Jong Un. Under Vladimir Putin, Russia moved in 2000 to revitalize ties with Pyongyang that had fallen off with the USSR’s collapse.
The central party leaders delivered the Ukraine news to each provincial party committee, ordering them to tell party members at their weekly meeting, where they confess political errors and reaffirm their commitment to be loyal to the country and its leaders.
“The news came privately during self-criticism on Saturday,” said the source. “The party members were told to be ready to mobilize at any time.”
The party members were not surprised, but still wondered why the authorities were keeping news of the invasion private, according to the source.
“The party members, of course, already knew from their Chinese acquaintances … that war had begun, but they were more interested in what caused Russia to invade Ukraine,” the source said.
After the news was broken to party members in the northeastern province of North Hamgyong, it began spreading rapidly among the public, a resident there told RFA.
“They not only stated that Russia is at war, they also ordered us to be prepared to enter into war immediately under any circumstances,” said the second source.
“In response, some residents showed a radical reaction, saying they wish that war would break out and this disgusting system we are living under would come to an end,” the second source said.
The second source said that some residents recognize the hypocrisy of the government siding with Russia while it invades an independent country.
“The authorities are always quick to criticize the United States as an aggressor, repeatedly asserting the independence of Korea, and the U.S.’ interference in our internal affairs,” the second source said, referring to Washington’s military presence in South Korea, which North Korea considers to be an occupation of its sovereign territory.
“That is why they are watching the government’s stance on the Russian invasion of Ukraine.”
The state-run Korea Central News Agency reported Monday that a spokesperson for North Korea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs blamed the U.S. and other Western countries for war breaking out in Ukraine.
“The U.S. and the West, in defiance of Russia's reasonable and just demand to provide it with legal guarantee for security, have systematically undermined the security environment of Europe by becoming more blatant in their attempts to deploy attack weapon system [sic] while defiantly pursuing NATO's eastward expansion,” the spokesperson said according to KCNA’s English version of the report.
“Having devastated Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya, [they] are mouthing phrases about ‘respect for sovereignty’ and ‘territorial integrity’ over the Ukrainian situation which was detonated by themselves. That does not stand to reason at all,” the spokesperson said.
Though it was the first official statement on Ukraine by Pyongyang, two days earlier a commentary published on the website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs blamed Washington and its allies for “high-handedness and arbitrariness that are shaking international peace and stability at the basis,” as rendered in the English version of the commentary.
Penned by researcher Ri Ji Song, it said that the U.S. was disregarding Russia’s demands for security and “unilaterally” expanding NATO to cause an imbalance of military power in Europe.
“The U.S embellishes its own interference in internal affairs of others as ‘righteous’ for peace and stability of the world, but it denounces for no good reason self-defensive measures taken by other countries to ensure their own national security as ‘injustice’ and ‘provocation,’" wrote Ri.
15. S.Korea's next president to face a N.Korea forging ahead in nuclear, missile production
In the face of this the next ROK administration has to make some fundamental shifts and recognize reality for the ROK/US alliance.
The only way we are going to see an end to the nuclear program and military threats as well as the human rights abuses and crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people living in the north by the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime is through achievement of unification and the establishment of a United Republic of Korea that is secure and stable, non-nuclear, economically vibrant, and unified under a liberal constitutional form of government based on individual liberty, rule of law, and human rights as determined by the Korean people. In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK).
A Strategic Vision
- The ROK/Alliance maintains a deterrence and defense posture and copes with and manages the near term provocations and crises and executes a long term sustained strategy that focuses on support to internal resistance leading to internal regime removal and dismantlement with an emerging leadership who seeks peaceful unification resulting in a Unified Republic of Korea (UROK). The bottom line is that we can publicly say we do not seek regime change. Privately we will seek internal regime removal through internal resistance.
- Concept of the Operation
1. Execute a strategic strangulation campaign
2. Conduct aggressive cyber campaign (targeting information and systems)
3. Reinvigorate the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI)
4. Plan for the 8 Contingencies using the 3 Guiding Principles and the 7 Steps of Preparation previously outlined
Guiding Principles:
1. Defense of ROK is paramount – all decisions must support defense of ROK against the full range of threats from the north.
2. Must provide options to national policy makers – early decisions required to overcome the law of physics: time, distance, and space. Must have the right capabilities in the right place for employment at the right time.
3. Transparency is critical when dealing with the 5 Parties and international community. Must have decisive and consistent themes and messages. This is not the situation in which we should employ deception. Only through clear articulation of alliance priorities and intent can we have a chance of reducing the chance of conflict due to misunderstanding of intentions. Examples for consideration (and these should be consistently expressed by the ROK/US Alliance):
A. Defense and Security of ROK is the number one priority.
B. UNC and ROK/US CFC have the following priorities:
(1) Security of nuclear weapons, followed by chemical weapons and then the biological program.
(2) Security, health, and welfare of the Korean people living in the north.
(3) UNC and ROK/US CFC desire to work with all interested nations to bring security, stability and long term peace to the Korean peninsula and Northeast Asia.
(4) UNC and ROK/US CFC will support the establishment of a unified peninsula – a United Republic of Korea.
A New Durable Acceptable Political Arrangement (“end state”) for consideration:
“A stable, secure, peaceful, economically vibrant, non-nuclear peninsula, reunified under a liberal constitutional form of government determined by the Korean people. ”
United Republic of Korea (UROK)
1. Number one priority: Development and execution of information/psychological preparation of the environment – a sophisticated and aggressive information and influence activities campaign
2. Development of an overt policy and strategy that states peaceful unification and not external regime change is the desired end.
3. Development of a classified policy and strategy.
4. Coping, Containment, and Management.
- Planning is the hardest and most complex
- All peaceful planning will have application in all scenarios
- Peaceful unification planning is the practical and morally right course
1. War – fastest way – blood and treasure - deter
2. Regime collapse - conflict, mother of all humanitarian disasters, could lead to war
3. Internal resistance – emerging new leadership
S.Korea's next president to face a N.Korea forging ahead in nuclear, missile production
Reuters · by Hyonhee Shin, Josh Smith · March 4, 2022
4 Min Read
SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea’s main nuclear facility is in full swing, a new report said on Friday, the latest evidence to highlight the challenges facing whoever wins next week’s presidential election in South Korea.
FILE PHOTO: Men walk past a street monitor showing news of North Korea's intercontinental ballistic missile test in Tokyo, Japan, July 4, 2017. REUTERS/Toru Hanai/File Photo
With denuclearisation talks stalled, North Korea conducted a record number of missile launches in January. It appears to be preparing to launch a spy satellite in the near future, and has suggested it could resume testing of nuclear weapons or its longest range intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) for the first time since 2017.
International monitors say that behind the scenes, North Korea also appears to be using reactors at its Yongbyon complex to produce fuel for potential nuclear weapons and an expansion of its nuclear production facilities.
“The activities observed in Yongbyon indicate ongoing fissile material production as well as the groundwork for further expansion,” the U.S.-based 38 North project said in a report, citing commercial satellite imagery of the site.
North Korea may now be close to inaugurating an Experimental Light Water Reactor (ELWR), though additional work would need to be done to expand capacity of a radiochemical laboratory, which reprocesses spent fuel for plutonium extraction, the report said.
“North Korea’s plutonium production capacity could increase substantially,” it concluded.
The report comes less than a week before South Korea’s March 9 election to choose a new president to replace outgoing incumbent Moon Jae-in.
‘MAJOR PROVOCATION’
Moon’s efforts to broker a deal between North Korea and the United States have been stalled since 2019.
The United States has said it is open to talks without preconditions, but Pyongyang says talks are only possible after the United States and allies drop hostile policies.
“While (U.S. President Joe) Biden is focused on the Ukraine crisis, North Korea would be looking for a chance to recapture U.S. attention, and think the best strategy is to carry out a major provocation,” said Kim Sung-han, a professor at Korea University. Kim is the top foreign policy aide for Yoon Suk-yeol, the conservative frontrunner in the presidential election.
Kim believes it’s only a matter of time before North Korea breaks its self-imposed moratorium on testing ICBMs or nuclear weapons.
Yoon sparked controversy in South Korea by saying preemptive strikes may be the only way to counter North Korea’s new “hypersonic missiles”, designed to potentially evade missile defences.
If elected, Yoon would not pursue dialogue for the sake of dialogue, but would unveil a roadmap aimed at appealing to North Korea’s own interests, Kim said.
“We have to create conditions where North Korea would make a rational choice, whether they stay out of talks and continue to suffer from the current sanctions and pressure, or whether they could bring a turning point for easing sanctions by having practical, working-level talks,” he added.
Meanwhile aides to Lee Jae-myung, the candidate from Moon’s Democratic Party, have said he would devise a roadmap where Washington can actually ease sanctions in phases when Pyongyang takes steps to dismantle its nuclear and missile programmes, with a so-called “snapback” clause designed to restore the sanctions if it backpedals.
Unless South Korea can persuade the United States and North Korea to return to negotiations, this year could see much higher tensions, said Lee Jong-seok, former unification minister and deputy national security advisor who advises Lee Jae-myung.
North Korea said a missile launch on Feb. 27 was for the development of a reconnaissance satellite system, and Lee Jong-seok said a full satellite launch could come soon after the election.
“Any satellite launch would bring serious repercussions, as it’s the same technology used to launch an ICBM,” he told Reuters.
Reporting by Hyonhee Shin and Josh Smith; Writing by Josh Smith; Editing by Kenneth Maxwell
Reuters · by Hyonhee Shin, Josh Smith · March 4, 2022
V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
