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Weekly Analyst Review

08 February 2023

Bottom Line Up Front

One of the Nigerian government's solutions to curbing banditry and jihadism in the country was to release new Naira notes, with the idea being that it would be difficult to obtain these new notes illegally. The government also stated that this move is to further control the currency in circulation, manage inflation and tackle counterfeiting and they have given residents until 10 February to make legitimate note exchanges, before the old notes become obsolete.


Reports issued by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission claim to have already dismantled a counterfeiting racket and illegal currency trading in several Nigerian territories, including Kaduna and Abuja where Bandits primarily operate.


Despite the Commission's claims or their objective, the first two days of February saw Nigeria's Bandits release videos of them in possession of millions of the brand new Naira notes.

On the 01 February video release, Bandit leader, Kachalla Baleri (pictured above) was seen holding fistfuls of the new Naira notes and claiming to have upward of 10 million Naira and the next day, more suspected bandits (pictured to the left) released a video revealing what appeared to be millions of new Naira notes.


If what is shown and claimed in both videos is true, this reveals that Bandits are flush with cash and the note exchange will not deter them in the least. The amount of currency displayed in both videos would easily allow the group to purchase new weapons to continue their rampage through Nigeria's northwest. Meanwhile, regular people throughout Nigeria are suffering from not being able to obtain, trade or find these new notes and Islamic State West Africa (ISWA) is flooding Borno state with old Naira notes. Reports were that they were passing out 100,000N in old notes to each passenger traveling en route to Maiduguri.

Other Developments

TRAC Insight:

Overview of Islamic State Global Operations for January 2023 (Major Threat Areas: Europe, Syria, and Nigeria)

January 2023 Islamic State Claimed Attacks and map of European countries with lone-wolf knife attacks.

In a very unusual and unexpected manner, Islamic State (IS) claimed operations around the world hit its lowest numbers for the first time since TRAC began analyzing IS global operations. In the first month of 2023, IS only claimed 59 operations carried out by its affiliates with absolutely no attacks in the usually high activity areas like Pakistan, Greater Sahara, and Sinai.


While it seems like that this depreciation is a result of leadership decapitation specifically after the death of Caliph Abu al-Hassan al-Hashimi al-Qurashi, TRAC asserts the much lower number of claimed attacks is simply a 'calm before the storm.' Like 2022, IS is building up to the Ramadan fighting season expected to begin around 23 March 2023. Further, TRAC continues to hold firm to the assertion, backed by evidence on record, about the remote locations of IS affiliates and their inability to effectively communicate with IS Central Command.


In particluar, Islamic State activities in Syria transcends all other affiliates in terms of unclaimed operations. In the month of January, IS carried out about 136 attacks in different provinces of Syria while only claiming 10 of them. This further strengthens our argument that Central Command doesn’t always get the news in order to claim an incident.


At present, Europe is one of the top significant areas of interest. In the last few weeks, the burning of the Qur'ān has become a common occurrence across European countries. On 21 January, Rasmus Paludan, a Danish-Swedish politician, burned a copy of the Qur'ān in front of the Turkish embassy in Stockholm, Sweden, and started a chain of Islamophobic events. A day later, an almost identical incident took place in the Netherlands when Edwin Wagensveld, a far-right Dutch politician and leader of the Islamophobic group Pegida, shredded pages from a copy of the Qur'ān in The Hague.


These incidents have enraged Muslims all across the world including Islamic State. As an act of revenge, Islamic State (IS) is attempting to inspire new lone wolves around world to carry out multiple knife attacks in and throughout European countries with propaganda. Direct threats from IS insiders specifically name Belgium, Spain, Germany, Hungary and France as active targets. Even though there are no official claims for a recent spate of lone-wolf knife attacks in these countries, these attacks have been celebrated by Islamic State insiders, making TRAC certain that the perpetrators are inspired by Islamic State propaganda circulating online.

TRAC Incident Report:

Five Protesters Killed During Assault on UN Peacekeeping Convoy in Goma, North-Kivu Province, Congo (DR)

Image:  Large protest in Goma

Violent protests have been ongoing for three days in Goma, North-Kivu Province of Congo (DR) as locals continue to accuse UN forces and the East African Regional Force of failing to support the Congolese military operations against the M23 rebel group.


A UN convoy was returning from a resupply mission north of Goma, the capital of North Kivu province, when assailants set four trucks on fire. The protesters tried to break into a container carrying weapons and ammunition and in trying to protect the convoy, the peacekeepers shot at the protesters, killing five.


Goma has been brought to a standstill amid the protests and this incident comes two days after a South African-piloted UN-peacekeeping helicopter came under fire while on a surveillance mission just North of Goma in Beni.


It should be noted that M23 spokesperson, Willy Ngoma has said that the Russian PMC Wagner group is present in Goma fighting alongside the army who has denied allegations made by locals.

TRAC Incident Report:

Free Papua Movement Militants (OPM) Takes Hostage a

New Zealander Pilot at Paro Airport in Nduga, Papua, Indonesia

Image: Commercial plane set on fire by OPM

On the morning of 07 February 2023, Free Papua Movement (OPM) rebels took a New Zealander pilot hostage, after setting a small commercial plane on fire at the remote Paro Airport, in Nduga, Papua. The plane destroyed was operated by Susi Air, an Indonesian charter airline based in Pangandaran, West Java.


According to the authorities, OPM released a statement claiming responsibility for the attack. The separatist fighters are threatening to kill the pilot, identified as Philips Max Marthen, 37, unless Indonesia acknowledges West Papua’s independence.


The plane, originating from Mozes Kilangin Airport in Mimika, in Central Papua and carrying a total of six people, including the pilot, a baby, and four other passengers, had just landed when it was assaulted by armed rebels led by commander Egianus Kogeya. Although the fate of the five passengers was not initially clear, according to an OPM spokesperson, the five passengers onboard the plane were released because they were native Papuans.


While the kidnapping of a New Zealand national would not be a coincidence, given the rebels hold New Zealand, Australia, and the United States responsible for militarily collaborating with Indonesia, it appears that the kidnapping was not planned. In fact, the fighters threatened a group of 15 workers engaged in the construction of a health center and intended to use the aircraft that had just landed to evacuate the workers. TRAC speculates that the New Zealander pilot refused to meet the rebels’ demands, or that the aircraft was too small to carry out 15 passengers, hence, he was kidnapped, and the plane was set on fire.

On Our Radar:

TRAC Incident Report: Anarchists Shattered the Windows of a Wells Fargo Bank Branch in Solidarity with The Atlanta Forest Defenders and in Memory of 'Tortuguita', Cherry Creek, Denver, Colorado, United States

TRAC Incident Report: Belgian Citizen, Jean-Louis Denis, Suspected of Recruiting Jihadis, Deported to Belgium from Benin

TRAC Incident Report: Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF) Destroyed Telecommunication Tower and its Machinery in Darbi, Bolan, Balochistan, Pakistan


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