NewsletterHeader5.png

Weekly Analyst Review

11 January 2023

Bottom Line Up Front

On 03 January 2023 Islamic State insiders disseminated instructions advocating the use of random and repeated punctuation, text symbols and characters, misspellings and phonetic spellings in online messaging. The purpose for this would be to evade any online scraping tools used by intelligence agencies.

TRAC has long maintained the only way to ensure that important intelligence does not fall through the cracks of automation is by human curation. While algorithms are capable of scanning vast amounts of data in a short amount of time, the outcome is often a firehose result of the instances of use, but not necessarily trusted or actionable results. For example, the use of the word “Minecraft,” the name of a popular video game, it is also a common code word for white nationalists to indicate actions desired in real life.

In the examples that were shared on Islamic State insider channels, as shown above, supporters perfectly demonstrated why human observation is crucial to the monitoring of communications between militants. TRAC contends that one of the most effective tools to properly surveil militant activity is to do the monitoring with real people.

Other Developments

TRAC Incident:

An Intelligence-Led Military Operation Resulted in the Capture

of Ovidio Guzman Lopez, El Chapo’s Son, of the Sinaloa Cartel, Culiacan, Mexico

Image: Ovidio Guzman Lopez

On 05 January 2023, Mexican Security forces initiated a military operation in Culiacan, Sinaloa, in an effort to capture Ovidio Guzman Lopez, one of the leaders of the 'Los Chapitos' faction of the Sinaloa Cartel. Lopez is also the son of Joaquin ‘El Chapo’ Guzman. Lopez is also said to be responsible, in conjunction with his brothers, for manufacturing and smuggling the deadly drug fentanyl into the United States. It should also be noted that this operation took places only days before US President, Joe Biden was scheduled to arrive in Mexico.


On the day of the operation, a large convoy of gunmen belonging to the drug organization was spotted while mobilizing to Culiacan where a military helicopter used heavy fire against an unspecified target during the night hours. Rumors initially circulated that Ovidio Guzman Lopez might have been killed, but he was actually taken into custody. Soon after the operation began, alleged Sinaloa cartel members reportedly took over Culiacan International Airport with the aim to prevent the transfer of detainees, while trucks were seized and set on fire in order to block the main roads across the city.


After almost 24 hours after the arrest of Ovidio Guzman Lopez, Sinaloa cartel members supposedly retreated, but not before severe acts of violence affected the cities of Culiacan, Los Mochis, and Guasave, in the state of Sinaloa. According to local media reports, the airports reopened after all flight operations were suspended due to the presence of gunmen who had threatened the safety of both passengers and workers.


The armed confrontation between Sinaloa Cartel hitmen and Mexico's Security Forces resulted in the death of 29, among them 10 soldiers, as well as the injury of several others.


Purportedly, after retreating, the Sinaloa cartel sent a 72-hour ultimatum to Mexico’s President Obrador and the federal agents, demanding the liberation of Ovidio Guzman and threatening of further attacks on shopping centers, petrol stations and governmental buildings if their request is not met. Although the 72 hour deadline has expired without major incident, TRAC cannot rule out reprisal attacks in the near future.

TRAC Incident Report:

Armed Youths Stab Soldier to Death at Bar in Nagrin

(Region 7), Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso

Image:  Screenshot of fight that broke out at the bar.

On 09 January 2023 around 6:00 pm local time, armed youths stabbed a soldier to death at a bar located in Nagrin (Region 7) of Ouagadaougou, Burkina Faso. The following day, friends of the killed soldier launched a reprisal assault at the same bar. It is currently unknown how many deaths resulted in the retaliatory assault.


While on the surface, the initial stabbing may seem like a drunken bar fight that got out of hand, TRAC posits that the assault was a reaction to the recent allegations by Ghana's president that the Burkina Faso military has been paying PMC Wagner Group for their services by giving them rights to gold mines in the south of the country.


The gold mines in the Sahel are some of the most lucrative in the world and international companies continue to operate them despite the danger they pose to the workers. The Essakane gold mine in Sahel region of Burkina Faso (owned by a Canadian company) and the Endeavour Mine in Tapoa Province, Burkina (owned by a British company) are the most lucrative in the region and frequently targeted by armed groups.

TRAC Incident Report:

Knife Attacker Injures Six at Gare du Nord Railway Station,

Paris, France

Image: Gare du Nord Railway Station, Paris, France

On 11 January 2023, around 6:45 AM local time, an unidentified man stabbed a number of people before being shot by the French police at Gare du Nord Railway Station in Paris, France. The knife attack resulted in the injury of at least six people, one of whom is in critical condition.


This is the second knife attack at Gare du Nord Railway Station in less than a year. In February 2022, an almost identical knife attack took place when a man of Arab descent stabbed several people during early morning commuting hours, before being shot by the French law enforcement.


Though the exact motivations of these stabbings are unknown at the time of this writing, it is important to note that the stochastic Islamic State propaganda advocates for knife attacks as cheap and easy in urban areas is in constant circulation.  Additionally, as expected, Islamic State supporters on Telegram celebrated the knife attack at Gare du Nord station. It is worth mentioning that Islamic State supporters often celebrate violence and attacks in Western countries even if the group is not involved in the incidents.

On Our Radar:

TRAC Incident Report: Islamic State (IS) Supporters Circulate the Campaign Schedule of President Muhammadu Buhari for the Upcoming Presidential Elections in Nigeria


TRAC Incident Report: Uranium Shipment Originating from Pakistan and Meant for United Kingdom-Based Iranian Nationals Seized at Heathrow Airport, London, United Kingdom

TRAC Incident Report: Violent Clashes Erupted after the Police Start Clearing Climate Activists from the 'Lignite' Village Lützerath, Erkelenz, North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany

TRACFusion_Newsletter2.png

CLICK HERE FOR PAST WEEKLY BRIEFINGS

TRAC Logo_Primary_TransparentWhite.png
Facebook          Twitter          Instagram