Three new PONARS Eurasia Policy Memos address Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. Paul Goode documents how Russian television has shifted justifications for the invasion multiple times, and Scott Radnitz finds Putin’s 2022 statements differ from those justifying Moscow’s previous aggressions by emphasizing a supposed existential threat to Russia. Kornely Kakachia and Shota Kakabadze argue Tbilisi’s passive response is a misguided attempt to avoid alienating either Moscow or the West.

Among the invasion’s many shocks during its grim first month, Henry Hale counts its stunning scale, which seems to have surprised almost everyone save Western intelligence. Ukraine’s fierce national resistance, though, should not have been surprising, argue Olga Onuch and Hale, who also point to a “Zelenskyy effect” rooted in Ukrainian civic national identity. For Ukrainians to keep up the fight, Mikhail Alexseev argues for the urgency of getting Polish MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine. And Arkady Moshes writes that support in all realms is needed not only for Ukraine’s own sake, but for Europe to have a peaceful future. Meanwhile, Ukraine suffers great destruction, including in badly needed health care infrastructure, Judyth Twigg observes.

Samuel Charap notes these events have given NATO a unity of purpose that was not there before. Kyrgyzstan, though, worries about the likely consequences of openly criticizing Russia even as inflation grows, says Emil Dzhuraev. Elizabeth Wishnick and Josiah Case write that Chinese media outlets have been parroting the Kremlin’s talking points but that the state has provided very little support for Russia in material terms.

Could this war be Putin’s downfall? Konstantin Sonin says it is changing everything in Russia economically, already creating “a tragic exodus [of the middle class] not seen for a century.” The economy, he adds elsewhere, is on a war footing, with more centralized decision-making as sanctions’ impact builds beyond airlines and the automobile industry. Peter Rutland, though, strains to imagine a scenario where Putin steps down, given Russia’s power system. Brian Taylor adds that the “vast repressive apparatus” at Putin’s disposal makes his immediate removal unlikely. Volodymyr Ishchenko sees a palace coup as a more likely outcome than a revolution, depending on the situation on the battlefield. For Robert Orttung, if Russians really knew what is happening on the ground in Ukraine, their national identity would move them to oppose being an invading power.

Thank you to those who joined our recent Ukrainathon and Spring Policy Conference! Event recordings are available on YouTube and Facebook.