"There is no such thing as paranoia. Your worst fears can come true at any moment." 

- Hunter S. Thompson

"Falsehood is so easy, truth so difficult."

- George Eliot

"Truth is ever to be found in simplicity."

- Isaac Newton

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• Russian nationalist figures (including veterans and military commentators) are increasingly criticizing the failures of Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine and are calling for further mobilization that the Kremlin likely remains unwilling and unable to pursue in the short term.
• Russian forces around Izyum increased their tempo of air and artillery strikes and likely intend to attempt to resume stalled offensive operations in the coming days.
• Russian operations to encircle Severodonetsk made minor gains in the past 24 hours, driving north through Zolote. Fighting is ongoing in Lyman (north of Severodonetsk) as Russian forces attempt to cut off Ukrainian supply lines
• Russian forces will likely make further minor gains west of Popasna in the near future but are unlikely to be able to quickly seize Bakhmut.
• The Ukrainian counteroffensive northeast of Kharkiv continues to threaten Russian positions and is forcing Russia to pull units from ongoing offensive operations in eastern Ukraine to shore up their defensive positions near Vovchansk.

• Main effort—Eastern Ukraine (comprised of one subordinate and three supporting efforts);
• Subordinate main effort—Encirclement of Ukrainian troops in the cauldron between Izyum and Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts
• Supporting effort 1—Mariupol;
• Supporting effort 2—Kharkiv City;
• Supporting effort 3—Southern axis.

• Russian forces are likely reinforcing their grouping north of Kharkiv City to prevent further advances of the Ukrainian counteroffensive toward the Russian border. Russan forces may commit elements of the 1st Tank Army to Northern Kharkiv in the near future.
• The Russians will continue efforts to encircle Severodonetsk and Lysychansk at least from the south, possibly by focusing on cutting off the last highway connecting Severodonetsk-Lysychansk with the rest of Ukraine.
• Russian forces in Mariupol will likely shift their focus to occupational control of the city as the siege of Azovstal has concluded.
• Russian forces are likely preparing for Ukrainian counteroffensives and settling in for protracted operations in southern Ukraine.

In contrast, Mr Bondarev said in his open letter he had "never been so ashamed of my country" as he was on 24 February, the day the invasion began.

• MILITARY STATUS: What might swing the Ukraine war?
• EVACUATIONS: Volunteer drivers risking lives for others
• READ MORE: Full coverage of the crisis

In Tokyo, Biden drew parallels between Ukraine and Taiwan. “The idea that [Taiwan] can be taken by force, just taken by force, would just not be appropriate,” said Biden. “It would dislocate the entire region and be another action similar to what happened in Ukraine. So, it’s a burden that is even stronger.”

1. They’re gaffes.

2. There’s a new policy.

3. It’s the old policy, with a new spin.

For too long, Washington has made peace with Pentagon programs that take forever to get started and then run years past their intended delivery date. Given the rapidly growing missile threat to Guam and the vital American national security interests there, Congress must demand better than business as usual when it comes to developing and fielding missile defenses for the island. Implementing these recommendations without delay can help ensure the United States has the missile defenses on Guam necessary to deter and defeat Chinese aggression.

• Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), who led the Senate opposition, huddled in his office with several of the coalition's key players before the House voted on the measure earlier this month.
• They included representatives from the Koch political network, Cato Institute, populist-oriented group American Moment and the American Conservative magazine, according to a person who attended.
• "Promoting a realist foreign policy agenda has always been a priority of Dr. Paul’s, which is why he has been holding meetings with interested groups and fellow members for years and will continue to do so in the future," a Paul spokesperson told Axios.

• The source described the atmosphere as upbeat, with Paul seeing the Ukraine vote as a catalyst for self-described "realist" elements in the party seeking to pull the U.S. back from deeper military involvement in Europe, the Middle East and elsewhere.
• It comes as the Biden administration escalates U.S. involvement in Somalia, a move that members of the new GOP coalition anticipate fighting.

• Its backers in Congress and in groups forming an outside policy infrastructure say they're more aligned with core Republican voters and donors, and, crucially, with Trump, a singular force in the party.

• Objections to the Ukraine bill fell into three categories: strategic differences over America's policy role in world affairs, procedural objections to the bill's speedy passage through Congress and concerns the money could be better put to use domestically.
• "Every Congressman had their own public reason for voting no, but I don’t think you would have seen this expanded coalition if it wasn’t for a genuine reassessment of American foreign policy happening in the Republican conference," one operative involved in the effort told Axios.

• That aligns it with Koch's Stand Together and Concerned Veterans for America, and to a degree with more libertarian groups such as Cato and FreedomWorks.
• Roberts said Heritage's rank and file donors have generally come down firmly on the restraint side of the foreign policy fight.
• Newer organizations are also adding voices to that coalition. Former Trump budget director Russ Vought, a Heritage alum, was highly active in the Ukraine aid fight via his new organization, the Center for Renewing America.

• Former Trump strategist Steve Bannon is also an influential voice in the space.
• The American Conservative's presence at the Paul meeting underscored its continued influence among those segments of the right. A newer publication, Compact, has also added an influential voice on the populist right.

• The group organized a conference in March, dubbed Up From Chaos, that people in that camp described as a watershed moment for the coalition.

• His highest-profile beneficiary, Republican Senate nominee J.D. Vance in Ohio, is a leading GOP critic of Ukraine aid efforts. Another Thiel-backed Senate candidate to watch is Republican Blake Masters in Arizona.
• Sources also identified venture capitalist David Sacks as a key voice in the donor community. He gave the keynote speech at American Moment's conference in March.

• Members of the bloc say the Senate vote and its House companion's 57 Republican nays show its position is gaining steam. They point in particular to no votes from Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) and from Republican Study Committee chair Rep. Jim Banks, (R-Ind.), seen as a contender for House leadership.
• In an emailed statement, Marshall cited the Biden administration's lack of strategic clarity. A Banks spokesperson referred Axios to a radio interview in which he said that $40 billion should instead go towards addressing domestic issues such as inflation and immigration.

• The measure is unlikely to draw nearly as much opposition as the Ukraine aid bill.
• Heritage continues to support NATO expansion, and the America First Policy Institute, a nonprofit run by Trump alumni, has also backed the move by Finland and Sweden. Meanwhile, Vought's group, the Center for Renewing America, opposes the move.

• "We might not agree on every individual issue, but I think we all share a sense that the foreign policy that was dominant on the right prior to Trump was not making America safer and was becoming increasingly unpopular with the GOP base.”

• After the Russian aggression, if the Japanese government under Prime Minister Fumio Kishida were to work toward increasing the military budget, the majority of the Japanese public is now getting ready to accept that, an expert said.
• 
  
• He said there were questions about U.S. reliability under President Joe Biden over the long term because the U.S. defense budget is shrinking in real terms.

Critics of the democracy-autocracy thesis aren’t wrong to argue that the world isn’t quite so simple.

The United States will need different rhetoric for different audiences.

A free-world strategy can be principled without being absolutist or self-defeating.

The Kremlin’s failed war in Afghanistan imposed massive costs on a struggling empire.

As the casualties and other costs in Ukraine rise, Putin may have to come to the table.

The West doesn’t need to humiliate Russians to achieve its aims.

Military loss could create a real opening for national self-examination or for a major change, as it so often has done in Russia’s past. Only failure can persuade the Russians themselves to question the sense and purpose of a colonial ideology that has repeatedly impoverished and ruined their own economy and society, as well as those of their neighbors, for decades. Yet another frozen conflict, yet another temporary holding pattern, yet another face-saving compromise will not end the pattern of Russian aggression or bring permanent peace.

And the Quad may soon get another member – a development that would require a name change for the grouping. New South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, who was elected last month, has announced that he wishes to join Quad working groups – a preliminary to applying for membership.

New Zealand and Vietnam are also potential new members. According to one expert, two related but opposed dynamics are driving this hurricane of paper signing: A rising China and a wobbling America.

“More than anything else, it is China’s behavior – in the South China Sea, in contested regions with South Korea and Japan – that has caused states in the region to rethink their security and that means working with their main partner, the US, but also looking at other options and partners,” said Roberston.

“But US behaviors under Donald Trump also gave everyone a scare – so the entire region is, I guess, concerned about the future.”