Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners


Quotes of the Day:



“Spiritualize your warfare. Every day you face battles—that is the reality for all creatures in their struggle to survive. But the greatest battle of all is with yourself—your weaknesses, your emotions, your lack of resolution in seeing things through to the end. You must declare unceasing war on yourself. As a warrior in life, you welcome combat and conflict as ways to prove yourself, to better your skills, to gain courage, confidence, and experience. Instead of repressing your doubts and fears, you must face them down, do battle with them. You want more chal-xx lenges, and you invite more war. You are forging the warrior’s spirit, and only constant practice will lead you there.”
- Robert Greene, The 33 Strategies Of War

"One's philosophy is not best expressed in words; it is expressed in the choices one makes... and the choices we make are ultimately our responsibility."
- Eleanor Roosevelt

“Resistance to the organized mass can be effected only by the man who is as well organized in his individuality as the mass itself.” 
- Carl Jung






1. In a First, South Korea Declares Nuclear Weapons a Policy Option

2. Yoon's comment on nuclear armament indication of will to defend nation: officia

3. S. Korea to promote 3-way ties with Japan, China via trilateral secretariat: deputy FM

4. U.S., Japan, S. Korea enhancing trilateral cooperation against N. Korean provocations: Blinken

5. ROK-U.S. to hold joint exercises in May

6. Nuclear energy will be Korea’s largest energy source by 2036

7. South Korea upholds firewall against North

8. North Korea Ordered Jeju Spy Ring in South Korea to “Fight Using KCTU Labor Union and NGOs”

9. Rehearsal for Pyongyang military parade spotted

10. Ministry's forced labor hearing degenerates into shouting match

11. New book highlights Kim Yo Jong’s place in N. Korea’s ruling hierarchy

12. Why Is China Singling out Korea for COVID Retaliation?

13. Defense minister says South should deal with North through 'power'

14. China’s ‘retaliatory’ visa ban sign of stormy times ahead

15. Experts: North Korea’s Purge of Top Official Shows Loyalty May Be Insufficient






1. In a First, South Korea Declares Nuclear Weapons a Policy Option


There could be some alliance friction over this unless this is being coordinated.


I do not think US policy makers will follow this logic:


“If South Korea ​possesses ​nuclear weapons, the United States will not need to ask whether it should use its ​own ​nuclear weapons to defend its ally​,​ and the alliance will never be put to a test,” said Cheong Seong-chang,​ a senior analyst at the Sejong Institute in South Korea. “If South Korea owns nuclear weapons, the U.S. will actually become safer.”


We need to consider how the ROK/US alliance can best deter Kim Jong Un. Do these remarks contribute to that?

In a First, South Korea Declares Nuclear Weapons a Policy Option

President Yoon Suk Yeol said that if North Korea’s nuclear threat grows, his country may build a nuclear arsenal of its own or ask the United States to redeploy in the South.​

nytimes.com · by Choe Sang-Hun · January 12, 2023

President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea in Seoul on Tuesday.Credit...Lee Jin-Man/Associated Press

SEOUL — President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea said for the first time on Wednesday that if North Korea’s nuclear threat grows, South Korea would consider building nuclear weapons of its own or ask the United States to redeploy them on the Korean Peninsula.

Speaking during a joint policy briefing by his defense and foreign ministries on Wednesday, Mr. Yoon was quick to add that building nuclear weapons was not yet an official policy. He stressed that South Korea would for now deal with North Korea’s nuclear threat by strengthening its alliance with the United States.

Such a policy includes finding ways to increase the reliability of Washington’s commitment to protect its ally with all of its defense capabilities, including nuclear weapons.

Mr. Yoon’s comments marked the first time since the United States withdrew all of its nuclear weapons from the South in 1991 that a South Korean president officially mentioned arming the country with nuclear weapons. Washington removed its nuclear weapons from South Korea as part of its global nuclear arms reduction efforts.

“It’s possible that the problem gets worse and our country will introduce tactical nuclear weapons or build them on our own,” said Mr. Yoon, according to a transcript of his comments released by his office. “If that’s the case, we can have our own nuclear weapons pretty quickly, given our scientific and technological capabilities.”

South Korea is a signatory of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, or NPT, which bans the country from seeking nuclear weapons. It also signed a joint declaration with North Korea in 1991 in which both Koreas agreed not to “test, manufacture, produce, receive, possess, store, deploy or use nuclear weapons.”

But North Korea has reneged on the agreement by conducting six nuclear tests since 2006. Years of negotiations have failed to remove a single nuclear warhead in the North.​ (American and South Korean officials say that North Korea could conduct another nuclear test, its seventh, at any moment.​)​​

As North Korea vowed to expand its nuclear arsenal and threatened to use it against the South in recent months, voices have grown in South Korea — among analysts and within Mr. Yoon’s conservative ruling People Power Party — calling for Seoul to reconsider a nuclear option.

Mr. Yoon’s comments this week were likely to fuel such discussions. ​Opinion surveys in recent years have shown that a majority of South Koreans supported the United States redeploying nuclear weapons to the South or the country’s building an arsenal of its own.

Card 1 of 5

Policymakers in Seoul have disavowed the option​ for decades​, arguing that the so-called nuclear-umbrella protection ​from the United States ​would keep the country safe from North Korea​.

“President Yoon’s comment could turn out to be a watershed moment in the history of South Korea’s national security,” said Cheon Seong-whun, a former head of the Korea Institute for National Unification, a government-funded research think tank in Seoul.​ ​”It could shift its paradigm in how to deal with the North Korean nuclear threat.”

Calls for nuclear weapons have bubbled up in South Korea over the decades, but they have never ​gained traction beyond the occasional analysts and right-wing politicians.

Under its former military dictator Park Chung-hee​, South Korea embarked on a covert nuclear weapons program in the 1970s, when the United States began reducing its military presence in the South, making its people feel vulnerable to North Korean attacks. Washington forced him to abandon the program, promising to keep the ​ally under its nuclear umbrella.

Washington still keeps 28,500 American troops in South Korea as the symbol of the alliance. But in recent months, North Korea has continued testing missiles, some of which were designed to deliver nuclear warheads to the South. Many South Koreans have questioned whether the United States would stop North Korea from attacking their country, especially at the risk of leaving American cities and military bases in the Asia-Pacific region more vulnerable to a nuclear attack. Washington’s repeated promise to protect its ally — with its own nuclear weapons, if necessary — has not dissipated such fear.

In its 2022 Nuclear Posture Review, a document that outlines Washington’s nuclear policy for the next five to 10 years, the Pentagon​ itself noted the “deterrence dilemmas” ​that the North posed to the United States. “A crisis or conflict on the Korean Peninsula could involve a number of nuclear-armed actors, raising the risk of broader conflict,” it said.

“If South Korea ​possesses ​nuclear weapons, the United States will not need to ask whether it should use its ​own ​nuclear weapons to defend its ally​,​ and the alliance will never be put to a test,” said Cheong Seong-chang,​ a senior analyst at the Sejong Institute in South Korea. “If South Korea owns nuclear weapons, the U.S. will actually become safer.”

By declaring an intention to arm itself with nuclear weapons, South Korea​ could force North Korea to rethink its own nuclear weapons program and​ possibly prompt China​ to put pressure on Pyongyang to roll back its program, Mr. Cheong said. China has long feared a regional nuclear arms race in East Asia.

South Korea would need to quit the NPT to build its own arsenal. Analysts said that quitting the NPT would be too risky for the South​ because it could trigger international sanctions​. ​

Some lawmakers affiliated with Mr. Yoon’s party and analysts like Mr. Cheon want the United States to reintroduce American nuclear weapons​ to the South and forge a nuclear-sharing agreement with Seoul, similar to the one in which NATO aircraft would be allowed to carry American nuclear weapons in wartime.

The American Embassy had no immediate comment on Mr. Yoon’s statement. Washington’s official policy ​is to make the Korean Peninsula free of nuclear weapons, fearing that if Seoul were to build nuclear weapons, it could trigger a regional arms race and eliminate any hope of ridding North ​Korea ​of its nuclear weapons.

Mr. Yoon himself reiterated on Thursday that his country remained committed to the NPT​, at least for now​.​ He said on Wednesday — and his Defense Ministry reiterated on Thursday — that the more “realistic means” of countering the North Korean threat would be through joint deterrence with the United States.

His government said the allies will ​introduce tabletop exercises from next month to test their combined capabilities to deal with a North Korean nuclear attack​ and to help reassure Washington’s commitment to its ally. Mr. Yoon also said his military will boost its ​own “massive punishment and retaliation” program, arming itself with more powerful missiles and other conventional weapons to threaten the North’s leadership.

Tensions have been on the rise in Korea in recent weeks, as Mr. Yoon’s government responded to the North’s provocations with its own escalatory steps, like dispatching fighter jets in response to drones from the North.

“We must squash the North’s desire to provoke,” he said on Wednesday.

nytimes.com · by Choe Sang-Hun · January 12, 2023



2. Yoon's comment on nuclear armament indication of will to defend nation: officia



​I respect this. However, I just hope the alliance can have a coordinated position on these issues so as not to undermine deterrence.


Yoon's comment on nuclear armament indication of will to defend nation: official | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · January 12, 2023

SEOUL, Jan. 12 (Yonhap) -- President Yoon Suk Yeol's recent comment on the possibility of South Korea's own nuclear armament was an expression of his firm commitment to defending the nation against North Korea's growing nuclear threat, his office said Thursday.

Yoon made the remark during a policy report by the foreign and defense ministers Wednesday, saying if North Korea's provocations intensify, "The Republic of Korea could deploy tactical nuclear weapons or possess its own nukes."

When asked to clarify his remarks, a presidential official said they should be understood as Yoon "stating his firm commitment amid the escalating threat of North Korea's nuclear weapons."

"The most important part of his comments yesterday was that, as a realistic measure at the moment, it's important to effectively strengthen extended deterrence within the security alliance between South Korea and the United States," the official told reporters.

"However, when it comes to security, the worst-case scenario must always be taken into consideration, and from that perspective, he was making his commitment and determination ever clearer to protect the people as commander-in-chief against the escalating threat of North Korea's nuclear weapons," the official added.

The official went on to say the principle of abiding by the Non-Proliferation Treaty holds.


President Yoon Suk Yeol speaks during a report on new year business by the education ministry and the culture ministry at the former presidential office Cheong Wa Dae in Seoul on Jan. 5, 2023. (Pool photo) (Yonhap)

hague@yna.co.kr

(END)


en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · January 12, 2023



3. S. Korea to promote 3-way ties with Japan, China via trilateral secretariat: deputy FM


S. Korea to promote 3-way ties with Japan, China via trilateral secretariat: deputy FM | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · January 12, 2023

SEOUL, Jan. 12 (Yonhap) -- South Korea seeks to promote three-way ties with Japan and China by working towards resuming trilateral consultations with the neighboring countries, Seoul's deputy foreign minister said Thursday.

In his meeting with Ou Boqian, secretary general of the Trilateral Cooperation Secretariat (TCS), at the foreign ministry in Seoul, Deputy Foreign Minister Choi Young-sam said South Korea will make active efforts to reactivate a trilateral consultative group to step up three-way cooperation, according to the ministry.

Ou requested the Seoul government's continued interest and support, saying that TCS would continue to make further efforts to contribute to the development of trilateral cooperation, the ministry said.

TCS is a Seoul-based organization launched in 2011 to promote cooperation among South Korea, Japan and China.


Choi Young-sam (R), South Korea's deputy foreign minister, poses for a photo with Ou Boqian, Secretary General of the Trilateral Cooperation Secretariat on Jan. 12, 2023, before their meeting in Seoul, in this photo provided by Seoul's foreign ministry. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

julesyi@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · January 12, 2023



4.  U.S., Japan, S. Korea enhancing trilateral cooperation against N. Korean provocations: Blinken


Another example of Kim's failing strategy. He wants to drive a wedge in alliances and degrade cooperation but instead his actions make trilateral cooperation stronger and more effective.



U.S., Japan, S. Korea enhancing trilateral cooperation against N. Korean provocations: Blinken | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · January 12, 2023

By Byun Duk-kun

WASHINGTON, Jan. 11 (Yonhap) -- The United States is working with South Korea and Japan to strengthen their trilateral cooperation against North Korea's reckless provocations, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken reiterated Wednesday.

The top U.S. diplomat also reaffirmed U.S. support for Japan's new National Security Strategy that will arm Tokyo with counter-strike capabilities.

"In the face of the DPRK's unlawful and reckless missile launches, including the launch of a long range ballistic missile over Japan in October, we are deepening our trilateral cooperation with the Republic of Korea to deter and, if necessary, defend against aggression," Blinken said in a joint press conference with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi and Japanese Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada.


U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is seen speaking during a joint press conference at the state department in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 11, 2023, in this image captured from the department's website. (Yonhap)

The four held the annual Security Consultative Committee meeting in Washington earlier in the day.

North Korea fired some 70 ballistic missiles, including eight intercontinental ballistic missiles, in 2022 alone, far exceeding its previous annual record of 25.

Hayashi said the four ministers strongly condemned North Korea's missile launches and "reaffirmed our unwavering commitment was the complete denuclearization of North Korea based on U.N. Security Council resolutions."

"With our positions perfectly aligned, we agreed to continue to work closely together in responding to the North Korea issue, including the pursuit of immediate resolution of the addiction issue," the Japanese foreign minister added, referring to the issue of Japanese nationals believed to be abducted by North Korea decades ago.

The Two Plus Two meeting came after Tokyo unveiled its plan to double its national defense spending to two percent of the country's gross domestic product over the next five years in its latest national security strategy and national defense strategy released late last year.

"These new strategies make clear Japan's commitment to invest in enhancing its capabilities, to take on new roles, and foster even closer defense cooperation with the United States and our mutual partners," Blinken said of Japan's new national strategies.


The top diplomats of the United States and Japan are seen holding a joint press conference at the U.S. Department of State in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 11, 2023 in this captured image. They are (from R) U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi and Japanese Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada. (Yonhap)

Austin said the U.S. strongly supports Japan's plan to acquire counter-strike capabilities.

"We also discussed updating our alliance's roles and missions, so that Japan can more actively contribute to regional security alongside the United States and other like-minded partners," the U.S. defense chief told the briefing.

"And so in our meeting today, we strongly endorsed Japan's decision to acquire a counter-strike capability, and we affirm that close coordination on employing this capability will strengthen the U.S.-Japan alliance," he added.

Austin also reaffirmed U.S. commitment to providing extended deterrence, saying, "I want to reaffirm the United States' ironclad commitment to defend Japan with a full range of capabilities, including nuclear.

Wednesday's meeting comes as a prelude to a bilateral summit to be held in Washington on Friday between U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.

bdk@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · January 12, 2023


5. ROK-U.S. to hold joint exercises in May


Tabletop nuclear "exercises."


Check out the graphics at the link.


ROK-U.S. to hold joint exercises in May

Posted January. 12, 2023 08:43,   

Updated January. 12, 2023 08:43










https://www.donga.com/en/home/article/all/20230112/3888070/1





The Joint Chiefs of Staff of the Republic of Korea and the United States Strategic Command agreed to conduct joint exercises in May in preparation for potential nuclear attacks from North Korea, using all available military capabilities, including the U.S. nuclear umbrella. The military authorities of the two countries will discuss and examine specific plans on the strategy of the nuclear umbrella and the U.S.’s strategic assets in an aggressive response to North Korea’s nuclear provocation scenario composed of nuclear threat, imminent nuclear attack, and nuclear attack.


On Wednesday, the South Korean defense ministry reported to President Yoon that the two countries’ militaries would stage separate tabletop exercises (TTX) in 2023 to reinforce interoperable response capabilities of extended deterrence. Tabletop drills are military exercises where South Korea and U.S. defense officials gather and discuss response measures against the North’s nuclear attack scenario. In February, the TTX between the defense authorities, which the two countries agreed back in November 2022 to hold regularly, will be conducted. Still, it was held only twice under the Moon Jae-in administration, in 2019 and 2021, respectively.


While the tabletop trills set to be held in February will focus on defense strategies to counter the North’s nuclear attack, the exercise in May is meaningful in that it is held at the military division level for the first time, where more specific joint military responses will be discussed, including the use of the full range of military capabilities, such as the deployment of the U.S.’s strategic assets. “While the previous tabletop exercises were more of a strategic, policy-level framework, the one we are planning to hold in May will be far more concrete and substantive than the February programs,” South Korean defense minister Lee Jong-sup told a news conference. A government official familiar with the matter also commented that the upcoming nuclear tabletop drills demonstrate the Yoon Suk Yeol administration’s resolve to strengthen extended deterrence.


President Yoon also mentioned in an interview with the AP that the tabletop drills in 2023 will include exercises on the operation of nuclear delivery vehicles, indicating that there will be more frequent joint exercises between the military organizations of the two countries, with the actual deployment of the U.S. tactical nuclear assets, such as strategic bombers and nuclear-powered submarines, to the Korean Peninsula.


The South Korean military also announced that it would launch the first reconnaissance satellite in the second half of 2023, which will play as the "eye" of the kill chain system to more quickly identify and respond to the North’s nuclear and missile threats. The South Korean military expects that its capability would be significantly enhanced in detecting signs of the North’s provocations, where South Korea has been relying on the U.S.’s satellites so far, once its five 800-kg spy satellites are all successfully put into orbit progressively by 2025. Furthermore, South Korea and the U.S. plan to revise their tailored deterrence strategy, devised in 2013, after 10 years, which will serve as a guideline for future military operations so that the strategy better copes with North Korea’s advanced nuclear and missile capabilities.



Kyu-Jin Shin newjin@donga.com · Hyo-Ju Son hjson@donga.com


6. Nuclear energy will be Korea’s largest energy source by 2036


South Korea: A peaceful nuclear power.



Thursday

January 12, 2023

 dictionary + A - A 

Nuclear energy will be Korea’s largest energy source by 2036

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2023/01/12/business/industry/Korea-energy-nuclear/20230112171406432.html


The Shin-Hanul nuclear reactors in Uljin, North Gyeongsang [KOREA HYDRO & NUCLEAR POWER]

 

Nuclear energy will be Korea’s largest energy source by 2036 and renewables the second, the government announced Thursday.

 

The contribution of fossil fuels — coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG) — to the energy mix will be reduced significantly, from the current 63.5 percent to a combined 23.7 percent.

 

The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy finalized a long-term energy policy plan Thursday, outlining Korea’s 15-year plan to shake up its energy mix.


 

The first draft was released in August last year.

 

Korea rolls out a long-term energy plan every two years. The latest 10th Basic Plan for Long-Term Energy Supply and Demand covers 2022 to 2036.

 

By 2030, nuclear energy will take up 32.4 percent of Korea’s total energy mix, compared to 27.4 percent in 2021.

 

The goal is to lift the figure to 34.6 percent by 2036.

 

The target share of renewable energy is 21.6 percent in 2030 and 30.6 percent in 2036. Renewable energy took up 7.5 percent of the energy mix in 2021.

 

Meanwhile, the government hopes to cut fossil fuel consumption significantly.

 

The share of coal, which was the largest energy source in 2021 with 34.3 percent, will shrink to 19.7 percent in 2030 and 14.4 percent in 2036. The government plans to shut down 28 of 58 coal plants in the country by 2036.

 

LNG share target is 22.9 percent in 2030 and 9.3 percent in 2036, from 2021’s 29.2 percent.

 

Compared to the first draft released last year, the nuclear target for 2030 was inched down by 0.4 percentage points and for renewables increased by 0.1 percentage points. LNG share was raised by 2 percentage points.

 

The government forecast the total energy demand to be 572.8 terawatt-hours in 2030. The estimate was raised from the previous forecast of 565.6 terawatt-hours released in August, due to growing demand for data centers.

 

The Energy Ministry said that Korea will be able to achieve the previously set Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target, by 2030.

 

Under the NDC, the country aims to reduce carbon emissions by 44.4 percent compared to 2018.

 

President Yoon Suk Yeol’s nuclear-focused energy plan is in stark contrast to the previous government’s phase-out policy.

 

The previous Moon Jae-in government wanted to reduce Korea’s reliance on nuclear power to 23.9 percent by 2030 while raising the renewable target to 30.2 percent.

 

While enhancing the utilization of nuclear reactors, Yoon is also pushing for overseas nuclear exports. The goal is to win 10 overseas nuclear energy projects by 2030.

 


BY SHIN HA-NEE [shin.hanee@joongang.co.kr]


7. South Korea upholds firewall against North


To gain the moral high ground for information and influence operations into north Korea, the South must break down this wall. The National Security law is way past its date of effectiveness and should never have been established it in the first palace.


South Korea upholds firewall against North | East Asia Forum

eastasiaforum.org · by Martin Weiser · January 11, 2023

Author: Martin Weiser, Seoul

South Korea is widely considered a successful democracy — but there is still a severe lack of freedom when it comes to anything related to North Korea.


70 years after the Korean War, visiting North Korea is prohibited, as is any communication with it. An online firewall prevents access to North Korean electronic media. Because printed periodicals were imported and put into a library run by South Korea’s Ministry of Unification (MOU) the impact of internet censorship received little attention.

But no new North Korean print publications have reached the South for three years now. This has effectively cut off South Koreans from most basic information on the other half of the peninsula. Fearing transmission of COVID-19, North Korea halted most trade — including the export of print publications — in early 2020. A handful of websites, which are all censored in South Korea, and the main North Korean state TV channel, KCTV, aired via satellite, have become the only sources of information.

In July 2022, South Korea’s new conservative government suddenly announced that censorship would be lifted, but half a year later nothing has changed. In October 2022, South Korea’s Minister of Unification Kwon Young-se confessed that while he could imagine North Korean TV in South Korean homes, he could not imagine lifting online censorship. TV content from North Korea can already be watched at the Ministry of Unification library or on any of the larger video-sharing platforms. Yet content from censored North Korean websites is not available to the public anywhere.

The ministry argued that ending censorship would help restore ‘ethnic homogeneity’, increase pressure on North Korea to do the same and help South Koreans to ‘understand’ the other side. Kwon later added that citizens were now ‘mature’ enough to be exposed to North Korean content and there were no legal hurdles to end censorship.

Not once has the government admitted that the censorship is problematic under international and domestic law. South Korea is a signatory to the International Convention for Civil and Political Rights. It should guarantee the ‘freedom to seek, receive and impart information and ideas of all kinds, regardless of frontiers’.

Domestically, the Korea Communication Standards Commission (KCSC) controls censorship of North Korean websites.It abuses a clause of South Korea’s internet law that allows for the censorship of ‘information with content that commits an activity’ prohibited by the National Security Act.

The National Security Act is infamous for preventing objective debate on North Korea, although a safety clause was added in 1991 to limit its application and prohibit the restriction of fundamental human rights. Despite this, KCSC bans entire North Korean websites instead of carefully censoring specific content. The Seoul Court of Appeals reprimanded censors in 2017 for violating the principle of ‘minimal regulation’ but the KCSC refused to rethink its approach.

Former South Korean president Moon Jae-in’s progressive government (2017–2022) won a majority in parliament but did not adjust legislation despite the problem being obvious by early 2020. Though the unification ministry is collecting banned online texts, it did not create any alternative ways to access them for the public. The ministry claims copyright rules prevented it from putting content collected online into its public library — but that sounds more like an excuse. So far it could boast only of a single successful acquisition of new materials. In October, the ministry announced it was able to legally purchase digital issues of a North Korean newspaper of 2020 and 2021 via China.

The current censorship policy is not just legally questionable — it is also ineffective and contradictory. Anybody tech-savvy enough can get around the firewall — like many journalists do every day. Nobody is prosecuted for accessing North Korean websites, although most South Koreans believe they could be, and registering an account is considered legal. Because Virtual Private Networks are required to access censored websites it is impossible to monitor who engages in prohibited ‘communication with the enemy’.

But there is a surprisingly easy solution.

South Korea need only exempt the Japan-based Korea Press Media from internet censorship or convince the company to make its commercial database accessible to South Koreans offline somehow. For more than a decade, that database has released digital versions of main North Korean newspapers within hours after they are printed and dozens of journals in social and natural sciences with some delay.

Politicians and civil society in South Korea should have been aware of this possibility — their silence highlights the effectiveness of censorship. Even worse, South Koreans have yet to publicly criticise the fact that their right to access North Korean information was severely violated for three years.

South Korea’s outdated censorship rules and COVID-19 have thrown analysis of North Korea back to the Cold War — barely any content is available to citizens and there is no end in sight. International society should not watch in silence and ignore this issue like the US State Department’s most recent human rights report on South Korea did. Eventually, all will be worse off if South Korea’s policy on North Korea is driven by ignorance and misunderstandings, instead of facts and analysis.

Martin Weiser is an independent researcher based in Seoul.

eastasiaforum.org · by Martin Weiser · January 11, 2023



8. North Korea Ordered Jeju Spy Ring in South Korea to “Fight Using KCTU Labor Union and NGOs”


We must understand the regime's political warfare strategy that includes subversion of the South. The (Cultural Engagement Bureau (CEB) (formerly the 225th Bureau) has the mission to support and create opposition political parties in the South. 




North Korea Ordered Jeju Spy Ring in South Korea to “Fight Using KCTU Labor Union and NGOs”

2023-1-9, Chosun Ilbo [TRANSLATION]

https://eastasiaresearch.org/2023/01/10/north-korea-ordered-jeju-spy-ring-in-south-korea-to-fight-using-kctu-labor-union-and-ngos/

It was confirmed on January 8, 2023 that cadres of the progressive political party in South Korea are under investigation by counterintelligence authorities for allegedly engaging in activities that are anti-government and ijeok [benefiting the enemy] after meeting North Korean agents in Cambodia in 2017 and receiving orders to “establish an underground organization called “HGH” on Jeju Island.” The National Intelligence Service (NIS) and police have been following the case for more than five years and conducted two search and seizures late last year. This is the first case of alleged espionage since the Yoon Suk-yeol government came to power.

[Note: The “progressive political party” means the Progressive Party (Jinbo-dang). The Progressive Party, known as Minjoong-dang (Mass Party) until June 2020, is a far-left political party in South Korea. Minjoong-dang was found on October 15, 2017 by merging the New People’s Party and People’s United Party; many believe Minjoong-dang (and the renamed party, the Progressive Party) is the continuation of the outlawed Unified Progressive Party (UPP) under Lee Seok-ki, who was imprisoned for sedition for planning and directing the followers of his underground organization to attack South Korean infrastructure in case of war with North Korea. The party supports redistribution of wealth and a 90% tax rate. It sees both the U.S. and Japan as “imperial powers” over South Korea, and has pursued anti-U.S., anti-Japan, and pro-North Korea positions. The current leader of the Progressive Party is Yoon Hee-suk (윤희석) and the Secretary General is Kim Geun-rae (김근래)]

NIS, Credit: News 1

According to the search and seizure warrant obtained by this newspaper, Mr. A, a member of the Progressive Party, secretly met an operative from the Cultural Exchange Bureau (문화교류국) (formerly Bureau 225) in Angkor Wat, Cambodia, on July 29, 2017. The Cultural Exchange Bureau is the Workers’ Party of Korea’s espionage organization that conducts anti-ROK (Republic of Korea) operations. It is reported that Mr. A spent three days in a hide-out in Cambodia and was trained by North Korean operatives on espionage skills, including how to establish and operate an underground organization (referred to as “HGH”) in Jeju and how to communicate using cryptography. Mr. A then recruited two people, Mr. B, a labor official in Jeju, and Mr. C, who was a “peasants’ activist” (농민운동), and organized “HGH.” The meaning of ”HGH” is said to be under investigation.

By November last year, they had received specific orders from North Korea, including “taking control of the Jeju April 3 Unification Committee under the KCTU (민노총) [Korean Confederation of Trade Unions],” “expanding the anti-U.S. struggle,” “Condemnation and rejection of Yun Seok-yeol,” “suspending ROK-U.S. military exercises,” “opposing the introduction of high-tech weapons from the United States,” and “fighting against conservatives.” Some orders were reported to North Korea as having actually been implemented.

According to the counterintelligence authorities’ search warrant, it was confirmed that they (HGH members) communicated with the North Korean Cultural Exchange Bureau using a cryptographic program and cloud computing even 5 days prior to the search and seizure. The authorities believe that “HGH” may have been formed not only on Jeju Island, but also in other parts of the country, and are expanding their investigation.

North Korea’s orders to HGH to mobilize various NGOs in South Korea to conduct anti-U.S., anti-Yoon Suk-yeol government, anti-pro-South Korea activities

The “HGH” members reportedly received orders from the Cultural Exchange Bureau, North Korea’s anti-South Korea organization for subversion, for five years and three months after 2017. Mr. A, an organizer, is accused of carrying out various anti-government, anti-conservative [against pro-ROK], and anti-American protests in the Jeju area for the past five years in accordance with North Korean orders.

According to the seizure and search warrant, on October 19, 2021, North Korea ordered “HGH” “to launch a series of mass struggles, such as protest rallies, protest visits, and signature drives with slogans such as the suspension of joint military exercises, the dissolution of the ROK -U.S.-Japan military alliance, and opposition to the introduction of high-tech weapons from the United States by mobilizing the JJ-do branch of the Progressive Party, JJ headquarters of the April 3 Unification Committee of the KCTU, the JJ-do branch of the National Federation of Peasants (전국농민회총연맹), and JJ region anti-war peace advocacy groups.” “JJ” means Jeju.

[Truncated]

The North Korean Cultural Exchange Bureau, which recruited Mr. A, is an organization directly under the Korean Workers’ Party (노동당) for conducting anti-South Korea espionage and subversive operations. Since the beginning of the establishment of the North Korean regime, it has changed its name from the Ministry of External Liaison (대외연락부), the Ministry of Social and Cultural Affairs (사회문화부), and the 225th Bureau (225국), and has carried out tasks such as sending espionage agents to South Korea. It was involved in various spy cases in South Korea, including the Korean Workers’ Party’s Central Regional Party branch in South Korea (남한조선노동당 중부지역당) in 1992, the Guguk JeonWi (구국전위, “vanguard to save the country”) in 1994, the National Democratic Revolutionary Party (민족민주혁명당) in 1999, the IlsimHoe (일심회, “one heart committee”) in 2006, and WangjaeSan (왕재산) in 2011.

Source:  https://www.chosun.com/politics/politics_general/2023/01/09/NGF5R47RMFEI7ADCHJIQVUNAVM/

Categories:DefenseEspionageIntelligenceNational SecuritySpySubversionTranslation of Korean News

Tags:counterintelligenceCultural Exchange Bureau






9. Rehearsal for Pyongyang military parade spotted


"I love a parade," said no north Korean soldier ever.


Korean analysts, on the other hand, are looking forward to seeing what Kim Jong Un wants to show us.


Thursday

January 12, 2023

 dictionary + A - A 

Rehearsal for Pyongyang military parade spotted


https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2023/01/12/national/northKorea/Korea-North-Korea-Mirim/20230112184537723.html


In footage broadcast by state-controlled Korean Central Televsion, a Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) is unveiled at a military parade in Pyongyang on Oct. 10, 2020. [YONHAP]

 

North Korea appears to have mobilized military equipment for a rehearsal for a parade at Mirim training ground near Pyongyang, according to satellite photos captured by Planet Labs earlier this month.

 

The military equipment includes a transporter erector launcher (TEL), which was frequently highlighted in past military parades. 

 

A TEL vehicle is used to transport missiles to a launch site, raise the missiles to the desired launch angle, then fire them. TELs enhance the mobility of a missile arsenal by allowing them to launched from different locations.


 

Ongoing North Korean preparations for a military parade were acknowledged on Thursday by Lee Sung-jun, a spokesman for Seoul’s Joint Chiefs of Staff.

 

In a regular briefing, Lee told reporters, “South Korean and U.S. authorities have been tracking and monitoring personnel and vehicles in relevant areas since the end of last year,” but declined to specify which vehicles are involved. 

 

Recent satellite photos of the Mirim parade training ground taken by Planet Labs on Jan. 2 show up to 13,500 people involved in rehearsals for the parade.

 

North Korea is expected to hold a military parade on Feb. 8, which marks the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People’s Army.

 

Pyongyang could use a big parade to show off weapons systems under development, such as solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) or the kind of surveillance drones it sent into the South in a brazen incursion last month.

 

The Hwasong-17 ICBM, which the North successfully tested for the first time in November, was first unveiled at a parade marking the 75th anniversary of the founding of the regime’s ruling Workers’ Party in October 2020.

 

The parade training ground at Mirim is laid out along the same ground pattern of Kim Il Sung Square in Pyongyang, where most of the regime’s celebratory parades are held, but without the buildings.

 

But it is no longer the only venue of its sort.

 

According to Pyongyang’s state-controlled Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on Monday, the border city of Sinuiju recently completed renovations of its central square to resemble the square in Pyongyang.

 

The Sinuiju version of the square features a smaller replica of the Grand People’s Study House, propaganda signs with the same slogans as those in Kim Il Sung Square and a marble and gold viewing platform for officials. 

 

But the square in Sinuiju follows a different road layout from Kim Il-Sung Square.

 

The newly renovated square was revealed by the KCNA through coverage of a state-organized mass rally, where workers chanted slogans and pledged to carry out government policies decided at last month’s Workers’ Party Central Committee plenary session.

 


BY MICHAEL LEE [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]


10. Ministry's forced labor hearing degenerates into shouting match




Thursday

January 12, 2023

 dictionary + A - A 

Ministry's forced labor hearing degenerates into shouting match

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2023/01/12/national/diplomacy/korea-japan-forced-labor/20230112175116957.html


A participant holds up a sign at a hearing hosted by the Foreign Ministry at the National Assembly in Seoul on Thursday to discuss possible solutions to the forced labor issue between Japan and Korea. [NEWS1]

Almost all speakers at a hearing by the Foreign Ministry in Seoul on Thursday on the forced labor issue were interrupted by forced labor victims and civic groups, becoming a succession of shouting matches.

 

“What kind of a public hearing is it if the victims don’t get to speak?” said Kim In-chan, a 71-year-old relative of a victim. Kim said he boarded a train in Danyang County, North Chungcheong, in the early morning hours to get to the hearing at the National Assembly in Seoul. 

 

He was shouting into the air to anyone who would listen. Eventually, the moderator ended the forum with a curtailed question-and-answer session due to the chaos.

 


The Foreign Ministry held the hearing to canvass public opinion on the vexing issue of Korean victims of forced labor by Japan and how to compensate them decades later. 

 

On Thursday, the ministry again put forward a solution that has been protested by victims: the creation of special fund of Korean corporate donations to compensate the victims. 

 

“Through our discussions with the victims and experts, we’ve seen that the chances of liquidation of Japanese corporate assets to compensate all victims are slim, and we’ve discovered that it is possible for a third party to legally compensate the victims instead,” said Seo Min-jung, director general for Asia and Pacific affairs of the Foreign Ministry, the diplomat in charge of negotiations with Japan on the issue. “We think this could provide a legal breakthrough on the issue.”

 

At the center of the issue is a landmark ruling by the Supreme Court in Korea on Oct. 30, 2018 ordering Nippon Steel and Sumitomo Metal, renamed Nippon Steel, to pay 100 million won ($80,270) each to Korean victims of Japanese forced labor during World War II. The Supreme Court made a similar ruling on Nov. 29, 2018 against Mitsubishi Heavy Industries.

 

Japan protested the decision, claiming that all compensation issues related to its colonial rule were resolved through a treaty with Korea in 1965. Japan gave Korea $300 million in economic aid and $500 million in loans with that treaty. 

 

Both Nippon Steel and Mitsubishi refused to comply with the top court's decisions, and the victims filed another case requesting the liquidation of assets of two Japanese companies to compensate forced labor victims. 

 

The Supreme Court in Korea has yet to rule on the latest case.


Lawyer LimJae-sung, left, and Kim Young-hwan, a director of the civic group the Center for Historical Truth and Justice, speak with the press just outside the venue for the forced labor forum hosted by the Foreign Ministry at the National Assembly in Seoul on Thursday. [KIM SEONG-RYONG]

 

Some representatives of victims who sat as panelists at the hearing on Thursday dismissed the Foreign Ministry’s proposed legal solution.

 

“The proposed options for solutions should be clear on who is being held responsible to compensate the victims,” said Lim Jae-sung, a lawyer representing the victims in the cases against Nippon Steel and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries. "The current proposal from the Korean Foreign Ministry is about compensating the victims by establishing a de-facto state fund supported by Korean companies.

 

"There is zero participation from Japan in this proposal," he said. "I want to know why the Korean government is so intent on pushing through with this proposal when the victims have already said no.”

 

The victims that Lim is representing boycotted the hearing on Thursday to protest the proposal.

 

A rift between the Foreign Ministry and the victims group started when the ministry in August 2022 submitted an argument to the Supreme Court to take into account the diplomatic efforts the ministry was making to try to reach a solution with Japan when deciding its ruling.

 

“That was a total ambush, there was no discussion with the victims, and that’s when the ministry lost the trust of the victims” Lim said at Thursday's hearing.

 

There was also division among different victims’ groups at the hearing on Thursday. Some said they would like to get any form of compensation and could care less where the money came from. 

 

"I think we need to consider all the victims and their families involved, not just those who have won the Supreme Court case," said Han Moon-soo, son of a forced labor victim who runs a foundation to support forced labor victims. 

 

“So many of us have been ignored by the government over the years. We will take the current ministry proposal, but what we need is a comprehensive recognition by the government of the forced labor victims. And for that we want a special law drafted to recognize our sacrifice."

  

There were a number of government proposals to compensate the victims unilaterally from the Korean side, but they were sporadic and not comprehensive. From 1975 to 1977, the government provided some 300,000 won in compensation per victim who died doing forced labor in Japan. A total of 8,552 victims were compensated.

 

In 2010, there was another government scheme to compensate some forced labor victims, including those who died, were injured, or went missing during their forced labor in Japan. 

 

At least 1,815 forced labor survivors were identified to be alive as of 2022, which was a drastic drop from around 2,400 in 2021, according to the Foreign Ministry. Many of the victims are in their 80s and 90s.

 

The Foundation for Victims of Forced Mobilization by Imperial Japan places the total number of Koreans forcibly mobilized by Japan on the Korean Peninsula, in Japan and parts of China between 1910 and 1945 at 7,534,429.   


BY ESTHER CHUNG [chung.juhee@joongang.co.kr]


11.  New book highlights Kim Yo Jong’s place in N. Korea’s ruling hierarchy



Interesting information much of which of course is difficult to verify.


Excerpts:

The book also provides vivid descriptions of other major incidents in North Korea’s modern history.
These descriptions include details surrounding Kim Jong Nam’s assassination, the power struggle between Kim Jong Nam and Ko Yong Hui, the secret strife between Jang Song Taek and Ko Yong Hui, the connections between Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui and the Third-floor Secretariat, and details about why US-North Korean negotiations failed at the Hanoi summit in 2019.





New book highlights Kim Yo Jong’s place in N. Korea’s ruling hierarchy

The author, a Japanese journalist, claims that Kim Yo Jong told her father Kim Jong Il that she wanted to jump into politics, but was met with substantial criticism from the people around her

By Mun Dong Hui -

2023.01.12 3:00pm

dailynk.com

The cover of Yoshihiro Makino's new book, "Kim Jong Un and Kim Yo Jong," which was recently translated from the original Japanese into Korean. (Geultong publishing house)

Two major issues discussed by watchers of the Korean Peninsula are the health of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and the question of who will succeed him.

These issues have drawn attention since rumors about North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s health began circulating in 2020, with Kim’s powerful sister, Workers’ Party Central Committee Vice Department Director Kim Yo Jong, emerging in the process.

recent discussion on North Korea’s leadership hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), an American think tank, also deemed Kim Yo Jong the most likely person to succeed her brother if he dies.

With attention focusing on Kim Yo Jong as a possible successor, a recently published book (first published in Japanese and translated into Korean by Han Ki-hong) is drawing interest as the first to really spotlight her.

The book, entitled “Kim Jong Un and Kim Yo Jong,” was written by Asahi Shimbun journalist Yoshihiro Makino.

The book looks at Kim Yo Jong’s entry into politics and why many North Korea watchers now consider her to be North Korea’s No. 2.

According to Makino, Kim Yo Jong first demonstrated interest in politics during the hectic power succession that followed her father Kim Jong Il’s stroke in August 2008.

Makino claims that Kim told her father that she wanted to jump into politics, but this was met with substantial criticism from the people around her.

Due to North Korea’s deeply feudal, patriarchal culture and Kim Jong Il’s own experience waging a fierce power struggle with his stepmother Kim Song Ae, the widow of North Korea’s founder Kim Il Sung, Kim Yo Jong’s father did not allow her to jump straight into politics, according to Makino.

He argues that this may have encouraged Kim Yo Jong to eschew public activity until Kim Jong Il died.

In fact, she made her full-scale political appearance and began taking the lead in domestic and international activity only after her father died and her brother assumed power.

A “VERY SPECIAL PERSON” TO KIM JONG UN

Since becoming a political actor, Kim Yo Jong has acted as a close advisor to her brother and taken part in major decisions establishing North Korea’s policy direction and planning. She has also exercised great influence on the so-called “red nobility,” North Korea’s core elite composed of the Third-floor Secretariat and Organization and Guidance Department.

Recently, she has also taken a leading role in foreign policy and international affairs involving South Korea, the US and other major countries.

She appears to be wielding great influence on domestic and international politics from her position of Workers’ Party Central Committee vice director, analogous to a vice minister in South Korea.

Even though Kim Yo Jong is a member of North Korea’s royal lineage, or “Mount Paektu bloodline,” her involvement in the totality of Workers’ Party affairs and foreign policy requires approval from North Korea’s supreme leader.

Makino said Kim receives approval from her brother because she’s special to him.

According to her, Kim Jong Un’s strong affection for his sister, partially due to the fact they were lonely siblings, and the fact that he has no subordinates he can really trust, makes Kim Yo Jong a really special person to him.

With no energy to watch the party, military and state due to a lack of aides he can trust, Kim Jong Un does appear to rely quite a bit on his sister.

In fact, in a report to the South Korean legislature’s intelligence committee in August of 2020, South Korea’s National Intelligence Service said Kim Jong Un rules through delegation, and Kim Yo Jong was the person he entrusted the most.

Past North Korean leaders had never permitted seconds-in-command.

This was presumably due to concerns that the very existence of a No. 2 could destabilize the regime through power leakages and disputes.

KIM JONG UN RELIES ON SISTER DUE TO HEALTH ISSUES

Nevertheless, Makino argues that Kim Jong Un relies on his sister and allows her to fully engage in politics because of issues with his health.

Kim Jong Un’s unstable health — one never knows when he might keel over — makes Kim Yo Jong even more important to him, the journalist says.

Makino even claims that Kim Yo Jong might be an “urgent replacement” on hand in case North Korea’s regime experiences instability.

Kim Jong Un’s older brother Kim Jong Chol, half-sister Kim Sol Song, uncle Kim Pyong Il and aunt Kim Kyong Hui also share the same bloodline as Kim Il Sung, but only Kim Jong Un and Kim Yo Jong are active Workers’ Party officials.

During North Korea’s military parade on Oct. 10, 2020, Kim Yo Jong did not stand next to her brother and take his bouquets, as she usually did, but took her place with the other party cadres.

Makino says that this was an attempt to cultivate Kim Yo Jong as a politician by entrusting the “secretary’s work” of handling Kim Jong Un’s bouquets or pens to another person, Hyon Song Wol.

The book also provides vivid descriptions of other major incidents in North Korea’s modern history.

These descriptions include details surrounding Kim Jong Nam’s assassination, the power struggle between Kim Jong Nam and Ko Yong Hui, the secret strife between Jang Song Taek and Ko Yong Hui, the connections between Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui and the Third-floor Secretariat, and details about why US-North Korean negotiations failed at the Hanoi summit in 2019.

Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.

Read in Korean

dailynk.com



12. Why Is China Singling out Korea for COVID Retaliation?


Why Is China Singling out Korea for COVID Retaliation?

english.chosun.com

China on Tuesday halted short-term visas for Koreans and Japanese. The Chinese Embassy here said the measure can be adjusted if Korea's discriminatory entry restrictions on China are canceled." In other words, this is blackmail. Korea has halted issuing short-term visas to visitors from China until the end of the month, while those who already got their visas have to present a negative COVID test and get tested again on arrival, which has already resulted in hundreds being sent into quarantine. But what else could the country do? Infections in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou have reached 90 percent according to some estimates.

Reciprocity is of course one principle in diplomatic relations. When one country takes certain measures for or against another, the other does the same. But does that apply to the COVID situation, where infections in one country are running amok and in the other are firmly under control. Considering the sheer size of China's population, a surge in infections can only be viewed as an emergency by neighboring countries. In Korea, infections have been decreasing since they peaked in March and April of last year, but a resurgence of infections can happen any time, and curbing the number of visitors from China at this point is only common sense. The curbs will be lifted as soon the spread of COVID there is under control. China's retaliation, in other words, is nothing but a peevish tantrum. And why target only Korea and Japan? Plenty of other countries have curbed the influx of Chinese travelers without being targeted in turn.

COVID-19 was first found in China and probably originated there, but when the virus spread around the world in 2020, China prohibited the entry of foreigners and accused everyone else of trying to infect it. It even banned Koreans although Korea had not barred Chinese visitors at the time. Beijing then touted its draconian coronavirus lockdowns as "scientific measures," but vaccination rates there remain absurdly low. Now it describes entry restrictions imposed by other countries as "unscientific and irrational." It is this kind of behavior that gives China a bad name around the world.

Read this article in Korean

english.chosun.com



13. Defense minister says South should deal with North through 'power'


Peace through strength (and superior firepower).


All our actions with north Korea must rest on a rock solid foundation of deterrence and defense.


Wednesday

January 11, 2023

 dictionary + A - A 

Defense minister says South should deal with North through 'power'

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2023/01/11/national/defense/Korea-Defense-Ministry-Lee-Jongsup/20230111174348577.html



Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup speaks at a press briefing at the Central Government Complex in Jongno District, central Seoul after attending a joint briefing of the foreign and defense ministries at the Blue House. [YONHAP]

 

Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup outlined a comprehensive strategy of maintaining peace on the Korean Peninsula “through power” to President Yoon Suk Yeol on Wednesday.

 

In a proposal entitled, “Implementing Peace by Power,” Lee said that South Korea’s military would focus on establishing overwhelming response capabilities against asymmetric threats, such as North Korea's nuclear weapons and missiles, as well as supporting the domestic defense industry so that the country becomes one of the top four defense exporters in the world.

 

Lee said that in order for South Korea to “respond overwhelmingly to asymmetric threats such as nuclear weapons and missiles,” the military will focus on six tasks, including expanding its independent intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities and upgrading its so-called K-3 system, which comprises three intertwined response systems to pre-emptively destroy, intercept and retaliate against North Korea in case of a missile attack.


 

Lee also said that Seoul’s armed forces would work to strengthen their ability to respond to future potential North Korean drone incursions.

 

“We will analyze the threat emanating from small-scale unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) and the weaknesses detected during our [last] response to build up an overwhelming military response capability and readiness,” the report said.

 

The minister also reported that South Korea’s military would operate surveillance and reconnaissance assets in tandem with the U.S. military to detect and identify drones early, jam their flight functions, and shoot them down with a variety of weapons and technological methods.

 

It remains to be seen if the measures reported by the defense minister would markedly improve Seoul’s anti-drone capabilities.

 

Some of the proposed policies, such as anti-aircraft guns and laser weapons, were previously promised by defense officials after a North Korean drone in 2017 was able to infiltrate South Korean airspace and take photographs of the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (Thaad) battery in Seongju, North Gyeongsang, located approximately 262 kilometers (162 miles) south of the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ).

 

But some measures tabled by the defense minister are new, such as the establishment of a South Korean joint forces strategic command to more effectively respond to evolving North Korean military threats, such as drone invasions.

 

The South Korean military conducted an anti-drone exercise involving fighter jets from the Air Force and attack helicopters from the Army, as well as a drone gun and ground-based anti-aircraft weapons, at the end of December after it failed to counter an incursion of five drones from the North.

 

South Korean defense officials would also work with their U.S. counterparts to enhance the credibility of the U.S. extended nuclear deterrent and increase the number of joint military exercises with the U.S. military, according to the report.

 

The report also said that the Defense Ministry will “expand government support to defense companies so they can fulfill the demands of weapons purchasing countries, promote post-sales deals to encourage additional purchases, and foster a supportive environment to take on challenging research and development ventures.”

 

 


BY MICHAEL LEE [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]



14. China’s ‘retaliatory’ visa ban sign of stormy times ahead




China’s ‘retaliatory’ visa ban sign of stormy times ahead

koreaherald.com · by Choi Si-young · January 12, 2023

China’s visa ban on South Koreans following Seoul’s tighter COVID-19 curbs on Chinese travelers is the kind of tit-for-tat spat the two Asian neighbors will have to deal with on multiple fronts for some time, experts said Thursday.

China this week stopped issuing short-term visas in Korea for business visits, tourism, medical care, transit and other personal matters -- a response to what Beijing said were discriminatory restrictions Seoul had imposed on people arriving from China. The apparent retaliation, or “countermeasures” as China describes them, will stay in place unless Korea removes its restrictions first, the Chinese Embassy in Seoul says.

“This is exactly the type of over-the-top attempts (meant) to rein in South Korea,” said Kang Jun-young, a professor of Chinese studies at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, referring to a fresh surge in COVID infections there.

A lack of transparency over the full scope of pandemic fatalities in China also warrants such “temporary protocols,” Kang stressed.

“Many countries reopened their borders, easing COVID travel curbs in stages to avoid a hard landing. China didn’t, and Korea shouldn’t be left powerless to deal with fallout from that,” Kang said, citing stringent quarantine controls Beijing had long kept in place for all incoming travelers, including Chinese nationals returning home.

Spillover from the Chinese retaliation is not something to seriously worry about, though, Kang added, noting that Chinese infections at home will have reached a peak by the time Korean authorities review the latest pandemic protocols at the end of this month. “If the tally is brought under control or close to it, these travel curbs won’t matter as much as they do right now,” Kang said.

But the fact that Korea is one of the first two countries bearing the brunt of Chinese retaliation, after at least 15 countries have stepped up COVID travel curbs on Chinese arrivals, is a clear sign that Beijing wants to pressure Korea and Japan -- the other country slapped with countermeasures -- according to Kang. Seoul still maintains its pandemic protocols are “scientifically sound.”

Chung Jae-hung, director of the Center for Chinese Studies at the Sejong Institute, said the latest flare-up in tension means more than having to deal with a show of force championed by China’s diplomatic hawks.

“This is only one of many potential clashes Korea and China will face in months or years to come as they struggle with reaching a compromise on diverging interests -- the Taiwan or chip issue, to name a couple,” Chung said. China last month lodged a strong complaint with South Korea following a visit by Korean lawmakers to Taiwan, the democratically ruled island China claims as its own pursuant to its “One China” principle.

The latest Indo-Pacific strategy South Korea revealed last month as the definitive rules of engagement with the rest of the world, Chung added, has more far-reaching ramifications, because the policy underscores Korea’s support for the US amid the intensifying US-China tech rivalry.

“However we spin it, it’s clear not only from the policy name itself, but what’s in it, which summarizes Seoul’s commitment to help reshape the world order, primarily alongside Washington,” Chung said, referring to US efforts to regroup an economic coalition that includes South Korea, the largest memory chip exporter, to put checks on China amid a global rush to tech buildup.

South Korea, which has publicly downplayed concerns over cornering China with the initiative, has to worry about how to walk the delicate line drawn by the world’s two largest economies, according to Chung.



By Choi Si-young (siyoungchoi@heraldcorp.com)

koreaherald.com · by Choi Si-young · January 12, 2023


15. Experts: North Korea’s Purge of Top Official Shows Loyalty May Be Insufficient


I can hear Ranger Instructor SGT Pugh shouting from the PT platform adapting his famous admintaiton: "fasle motivation will get you nowhere" to "forced loyalty will not work."



Experts: North Korea’s Purge of Top Official Shows Loyalty May Be Insufficient

January 11, 2023 10:15 PM

voanews.com

WASHINGTON —

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s purge of former Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho, who was instrumental in two summits with the U.S. in 2018-19, could have sent “a shock wave” through the ranks of Pyongyang’s diplomats, said experts.

If Ri was executed, as some unconfirmed reports have suggested, the shock would be even greater.

Ri disappeared from public view two years ago, prompting speculation about his fate. The respected diplomat had played a key role in the summits between North Korean leader Kim and former U.S. President Donald Trump in Singapore in 2018 and Hanoi in 2019.

He was last seen at a Central Committee meeting of North Korea’s ruling Workers’ Party in December 2019. Ri was last mentioned by North Korea state media in April 2020, when he was removed from the State Affairs Commission, a top decision-making body.

The National Intelligence Service of South Korea said Jan. 5 it had determined that Ri was purged, but added it was uncertain whether he was executed.

In June 2022, Choe Son Hui, formerly the first vice minister of foreign affairs, was assigned to fill the post Ri had occupied.

Ri was seen as a respectable diplomat and loyal aid to Kim, so a purge would have startled many within North Korea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, according to experts.

“If Ri Yong Ho has indeed been purged, and particularly if he has been executed, it will likely send a shock wave through the ranks of DPRK’s diplomats,” said Evans Revere, a former State Department official with extensive experience negotiating with North Korea.

North Korea’s official name is the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK).

"If someone as prominent, loyal and capable as Ri can be removed, then the same fate could befall anyone in the current North Korean hierarchy. I suspect that some North Korean diplomats are right now wondering about their own futures and considering their options," continued Revere.

Ri accompanied Kim to the summits with Trump and, after the talks collapsed in Hanoi, announced at a press conference that Trump had rejected a proposal made by Kim. Trump said he walked out of the summit after a disagreement over a deal with the North Korean leader.

Recalling Ri’s participation at the summits, John Bolton, a White House national security adviser during the Trump administration, said Ri “didn’t say very much” at the talks as “Kim did pretty much all the talking.”


FILE - North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho gets into a car at Beijing Capital International Airport in Beijing, China, Sept. 19, 2017.

Bolton said Kim may have purged Ri because he was “dissatisfied with the outcome” of the Hanoi summit.

“It may have been his advice, his prediction about what would happen in Hanoi and not anything that he himself did,” said Bolton. “It’s a dangerous place to have a career next to [Kim].”

Kim offered dismantlement of the Yongbyon nuclear facility in exchange for the lifting of international sanctions that had been imposed on North Korea. The U.N. Security Council successively imposed heavy sanctions on North Korea beginning after its first nuclear test in 2006.

Ken Gause, an expert on North Korean leadership and the director of strategy, policy, plans and programs division special project at the Center for Naval Analyses, said, “You had a failure in Hanoi, and someone had to take the blame for that.”

“There would have been a certain amount of shock or surprise” over Ri’s ouster within the diplomatic circle in North Korea, Gause said. “It could have been meant to send a message to the diplomatic corps.”

Gause does not think Ri was executed as it is uncommon for North Korea to execute someone from its Ministry of Foreign Affairs, although senior military officials have been executed.

Ri was appointed as the minister of foreign affairs in May 2016. He made a speech at the U.N. General Assembly in New York in September 2017, slamming Trump and citing U.S. threats as grounds for North Korea maintaining its nuclear weapons program.

Ri spoke amid heightened tension on the Korean Peninsula after North Korea’s first launch of intercontinental ballistic missiles in July 2017.

In a meeting with U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres during the September 2017 gathering, Ri again lodged complaints about what North Korea viewed as U.S. hostility, according to Jeffrey Feltman, the then-U.N. undersecretary general for political affairs. Feltman, who attended the meeting, said Ri invited him to Pyongyang as the meeting ended.

When he was in Pyongyang three months later, Feltman said he privately delivered a message from Trump to Ri saying the U.S. president was willing to meet with Kim under the right conditions. According to Feltman, Ri expressed “bewilderment” and in an “unemotional tone of voice” said, “Why should I believe you that he, under the right circumstances, be willing to sit down with our leader?”

Feltman, who is now at Brookings, a Washington think tank, said Ri was disciplined in presenting regime policies. Among these was the argument that Pyongyang needed nuclear weapons for self-defense because the regime, including Kim, believed the U.S. would soon launch an attack.

Feltman said he got no hint that North Korea was willing to denuclearize when he met with North Korean officials.

Alastair Morgan, the U.K. ambassador to North Korea from December 2015 to December 2018, said Ri struck him as “composed, competent and courteous,” when he talked with him in Pyongyang at a Ministry of Foreign Affairs New Year’s reception in January 2018.

Other foreign diplomats and representatives of humanitarian aid organizations attending the event were allowed to “intermingle freely” and speak with North Korean officials, said Morgan. He said he has been told by his successor that the format for the event changed in 2019 to “a fixed seating dinner, reducing the opportunity for interchange.”

voanews.com












De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Senior Advisor, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com


V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Personal Email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
Web Site: www.fdd.org
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Subscribe to FDD’s new podcastForeign Podicy
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

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