October Key Points
ACF Climate Conditions and Outlooks
-
Red tide (Karenia Brevis) affecting the estuaries of the Apalachicola River and the FL Panhandle
- Tropics relatively quiet, cautiously optimistic this will continue
- The Southeast U.S. nearly entirely drought-free, pockets of D0 along coastal Carolina’s, Georgia
- Typical dry October for much of the area, wet in the middle ACF
- Active storm pattern forecast in the next week, but no heavy rainfall for the ACF
- La Nina advisory declared, 85-90% chance it lasts through the winter
- CPC seasonal forecast heavily favors above normal temperatures, below normal rainfall
- Drought development forecast as “likely” over peninsular Florida, greater Southeast of interest
- State of Alabama - The AL Drought Declaration has not been updated since 5/11/21 and does not include any drought designations. No current reported water availability issues. No Alabama Drought Monitoring and Impact Group (MIG) Meeting currently scheduled
Real-Time Streamflow & Forecasts
- Real-time streamflow in the ACF basin are currently in the much above normal to low range.
- The below normal 7-day average streamflow indicates that the ACF basin is hydrologically drought free.
- 28-day average streamflow for the Chattahoochee River are currently in the much above normal to above normal range.
- 28-day average streamflow for the Flint River are currently in the much above normal to above normal range.
- Real-time groundwater levels at well i.d. 08G001 and 11K003 are currently ranked much above normal and above normal respectively
- No flooding expected in the next 10 days
- 1-month Southeast River Forecast Center streamflow forecast shows near normal conditions, but above normal in the upper Chattahoochee
- 3-month SERFC streamflow forecast shows near normal conditions with expected drier weather potentially (CPC outlooks)
ACF Basin Reservoir Conditions
- Lake Lanier is above guide curve. USACE is slowly transitioning the pool elevation to its winter pool elevation
- Lake Lanier and Walter F. George have begun their winter pool transition. The transition will end on December 1st
- West Point’s winter pool transition is scheduled for November 1st and end on December 15th
- All projects are within Zone 1 and currently meeting all downstream minimum flow requirements
- The ACF system conservation storage is in Zone 1 and is forecasted to remain in Zone 1 for the next few weeks
Apalachicola Bay Daily Average Salinity Levels
- Cat Point salinity values are within the 10-24th percentile range as of 10/12. Values are relatively low with no large increases or deceases observed
- Dry Bar salinity values have primarily remained within the lowest percentile range through October
- East Bay Bottom salinity values decreased into October, then remained within the lower percentile ranges. Values are within the 10-24th percentile range as of 10/12
