In a new PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo, Guzel Yusupova argues survey research and social media data greatly overestimate war support in Russia, where a “politics of fear” now dominates. While Mikhail Troitskiy thinks Russian draftees have likely found their service much more dangerous than expected, others posit Russians have not much resisted due to: a belief the war is defensive and the absence of opposition infrastructure (Nikolay Petrov); repression of dissidents over the last decade (Maria Popova); and Soviet totalitarianism’s elimination of civil society and promotion of security services (Lucan Way). For Marlene Laruelle, support for a “national-conservative” state ideology in Russia is a uniting factor among Russians, and Margarita Zavadskaya and coauthors find Russian emigrants unlikely to return to become a force for political change.

As Western leaders deliberate how far to go in arming Ukraine, Volodymyr Dubovyk sees a pattern whereby Western leaders initially decline to provide certain weapons (like Leopard 2 tanks) until their “red lines shift.” And for Pavel Baev, their escalation fears have been dulled by Moscow’s shrugging off past deliveries. Popova describes Germany as the “odd one out” in these Western debates, facing pressure from other allies to allow their tanks to be transferred to Ukraine. Experts also debate sanctions’ effectiveness: For Gulnaz Sharafutdinova, their effect on Russian society has been muted because many access “banned” goods via third countries, while Maria Snegovaya observes a slow “strangulation” taking shape.

Militarily, Peter Rutland writes Russia’s targeting of civilian infrastructure is likely to backfire. For Baev, Putin’s reshuffling of commanders has “shortened the distance between himself and the war,” while Petrov says this decision signals a possible change of military tactics as a winter offensive approaches. The Russian regime has co-opted Chechens into a “disposable army,” Jean-Francois Ratelle observes, though also notes many Chechens fight on the Ukrainian side as part of a “transnational” fight against Russia.

In the South Caucasus, Kornely Kakachia says Putin is likely happy that the imprisoned former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili is faring poorly. Alexander Iskandaryan laments that Russian peacekeepers are “standing around” in Nagorno Karabakh, but notes their presence likely keeps the conflict from escalating to all-out war.

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Call for Applications: IERES Petrach Program on Ukraine Fellowship, Resident and Non-Resident Opportunities. The deadline to apply is Friday, February 17, 2023.

Call for Applications: Russian Global Academy, Fellowships and support to Russian scholars in exile. Deadlines from February 28, 2023.