01/14/2022
This week’s USDA WASDE report will set the tone for the next couple months. There were a few surprises. The biggest being the Winter Wheat Seedings report. USDA raised soft red winter wheat planted acres for the 2022 crop to 7.07 million acres, up from 6.648 million the previous year and above the trade expectations of 6.555 million. That increases the potential bearish impact of soft red supplies for the coming year. It raised hard red winter wheat acres to 23.8 million acres, up from 23.494 million the previous year, but still below the average trade guess. 
South American corn and soybean production estimates were cut as well. The trade expects that we’ll see more cuts in the February report. Argentine crop ratings continue to tumble amid record heat and drought. Its soybean crop is rated just 31% Good to Excellent this week, down from 88% four weeks ago. Its corn crop is rated 23% G/E, down from 87% four weeks ago. The crop production problems are also common in Uruguay, Paraguay and in southern Brazil. A couple of systems are expected to bring relief to this region of South America next week before the pattern reverts dry again. Next week’s rains will be pivotal for shaping the production outlook as we head into February, which is really the key month for much of this region. South American weather is expected to be the key driver of the grain and oilseed markets in the weeks ahead, followed by a shift to the U.S. growing season.
The USDA kept the yield on the 2021 corn crop at 177 bushels per acre but did increase the harvested area to 85.4 million acres. This increased US production by 53 million acres. It was interesting to note that they decreased US corn exports estimates 75 million bushels while, at the same time, increasing ethanol usage by 75 million bushels. Bias for the coming US growing season is expected to lean towards a drier Southern Plains and a wetter Midwest corn belt.
For all your grain marketing needs call Farmers Coop 308-487-3325.