CNS News & Views: April 2022

Middlebury Institute of International Studies

April 2022

CNS students detected the start of the Russia-Ukraine war

CNS Graduate Research Assistant Tricia White tells the riveting story of how she and several other graduate students worked with Dr. Jeffrey Lewis to detect the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, along with making other important open source intelligence discoveries in Iran and North Korea.

She writes: “February 23rd was pretty much a normal day. I was working with some colleagues to estimate the size of an Iranian missile. …John Ford, another student, decided to look at Google Maps. He was curious whether Russian military activities might disrupt normal traffic patterns. A little after 5 pm California-time, John called out from his desk that there was a traffic jam at the exact location of a Russian armored unit. That was about 3:00 am Ukrainian time. There aren’t often traffic jams in the wee hours of the morning. Even so, we were nervous to make the call. Did we just see the war start on Google Maps?”

NPT stakeholders meet in New York

CNS hosted a working lunch for representatives from over 30 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) State parties, senior United Nations officials, and other stakeholders on 8 April 2022 in New York City. The luncheon followed the decades-long tradition by CNS of convening events to promote informal, candid dialogues among NPT governmental representatives in preparation for NPT Review Conference and Preparatory Committee meetings.

Particularly high on the agenda was the expected impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the Conference dynamics, and on the wider nuclear nonproliferation and arms control regime. Also discussed was the impact of the First Conference of State parties to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, the future of the JCPOA, and the possibility of another nuclear test by North Korea.

VCDNP Impact at Milestone A/CPPNM Review Conference

The VCDNP participated in the first Review Conference of the Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material as amended (A/CPPNM) held in Vienna from March 28 to April 1, 2022. The VCDNP organized and hosted several side events including a presentation by Visiting Research Fellow Marianne Fisher on recommendations for enhanced implementation of the Convention and presentations from Executive Director Elena Sokova on the role of NGOs in nuclear security.

A hybrid event with U.S. Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security, Ambassador Bonnie D. Jenkins was also held where U.S. priorities for the Conference, global exchanges on best practices and emerging threats, and establishing a regular review process were discussed. The importance of including diverse perspectives was stressed: “we do not know what we miss out on when we do not invite all parties to the table.” Ambassador Jenkins advocated for increased efforts to ensure that women are represented in leadership positions across the field, and for better inclusion and engagement of people of color.

Export Control Dialogue: Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

CNS organized a dialogue to share developments on export controls adopted in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and to discuss practical opportunities and challenges associated with their implementation. At the time of the event, the US had designated more than six-hundred entities. The EU had imposed five rounds of sanctions. The UK had adopted legislation to implement sanctions, and additional measures were anticipated.

Key points from the discussion included a general industry retreat from Russia, concern regarding medical shipments to Russia, private sector compliance, longer-term implications, unprecedented international coordination, and the idea of a new export control regime. Concrete conclusions to these topics were not decided upon during the dialogue, but it is clear that Russia’s invasion will have important ramifications for the future of export controls.

A virtual special issue of the Nonproliferation Review

The Nonproliferation Review is a refereed journal concerned with the causes, consequences, and control of the spread of nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons. The Review features case studies, theoretical analyses, historical studies, reports, viewpoints, and book reviews on such issues as state-run weapons programs, treaties and export controls, safeguards, verification and compliance, disarmament, terrorism, and the economic and environmental effects of weapons proliferation.

The Nonproliferation Review often features articles about the Russian Federation and weapons of mass destruction. CNS has compiled a virtual special issue of the Nonproliferation Review that features nine articles from editions since 2018 on Russia, missiles and nuclear weapons, chemical weapons, biological weapons, and dual-use research.