Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

"Nothing is a waste of time if you use the experience wisely."

- Auguste Rodin

“The phrase "freedom of action" is among the most pernicious of all strategic cliches, because it is used more often than any other, and no one feels obliged to define its actual meaning. … Again, unfortunately, we are dealing with jargon, which, as usual , bears only a faint resemblance to well defined, specific concepts.”

- Carl von Clausewitz, 1827, from “Two Letters on Strategy,” ed. and trans. by Peter Paret and Daniel Moran, 32 and 37.

"COIN is neither a concept nor can it be a strategy. Instead, it is simply an acronymic descriptor of a basket of diverse activities intended to counter an insurgency. COIN cannot be debated intelligently as a general and generic project any more than can war and its warfare."

- Colin S. Gray

1. 2 Koreas exchange warning shots along disputed sea boundary

2. Don’t Let Up on North Korea

3. Koreas exchange warning shots along sea border

4. Opinion | BTS not seeking a military exemption speaks volumes

5. N. Korea finalizes selection of workers to join reconstruction efforts in Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine

6. North Korean freighter breaches de facto sea border

7. NK’s nuclear test imminent after China’s Congress, watchers say

8. [ANALYSIS] What 3rd term for Xi Jinping means for S.Korea

9. S. Korea's Navy kicks off large-scale joint drills in West Sea

10. S. Korea to participate in US-led cyber exercise for 1st time

11. N. Korea dispatches “party guidance teams” to watch over fall harvest efforts

12. N. Koreans on border taken aback by border patrol’s sudden live-fire drills

13. Mending the alternative military service system

14. More options than 'foundation-led' compensation considered for Japan's wartime forced labor, Seoul says

15. Analysis | The West Has Failed: North Korea Is a Nuclear State

16. K-drama ban won’t be good; use South Korea’s method as a model instead

17. Seminar explores N. Korea’s media environment in 2022

1. 2 Koreas exchange warning shots along disputed sea boundary

Late for the "Crab Wars" (usually late spring early summer) but recall the 2010 artillery attack of Y-P Do in November. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombardment_of_Yeonpyeong

2 Koreas exchange warning shots along disputed sea boundary

AP · by HYUNG-JIN KIM · October 23, 2022

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — North and South Korea exchanged warning shots Monday along their disputed western sea boundary — a scene of past bloodshed and naval battles — in a development that raises worry of possible clashes after North Korea’s recent barrage of weapons tests.

South Korea’s navy broadcast warnings and fired warning shots to repel a North Korean merchant ship that violated the sea boundary at 3:42 a.m., the Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement.

North Korea’s military said its coastal defense units responded by firing 10 rounds of artillery warning shots toward its territorial waters, where “naval enemy movement was detected.” It accused a South Korean naval ship of intruding into North Korean waters on the pretext of cracking down on an unidentified ship.

There were no reports of fighting, but the sea boundary off the Korean Peninsula’s west coast is a source of long-running animosities. The American-led U.N. command drew a boundary at the end of the 1950-53 Korean War, but North Korea insists upon a boundary that encroaches deeply into waters controlled by the South. Among the deadly events that have happened in the area are the North’s shelling of a South Korean island and its alleged torpedoing of a South Korean navy ship, both in 2010. The two attacks killed 50 South Koreans.

Health

Analyst Cheong Seong-Chang at the private Sejong Institute in South Korea said North Korea had likely intentionally plotted its ship incursion because it would be “unimaginable” for a North Korean merchant ship to cross the boundary that early in a day without the permission of the North’s military.

Cheong said North Korea is increasingly emboldened by its recent missile tests in which North Korea said it simulated the use of tactical nuclear weapons to attack South Korean and U.S. targets. He noted Pyongyang would also know Washington’s strained relationships with Russia and China make it more difficult for the U.S. to draw cooperation from the two regional powers on the North Korean issue.

“The South Korean military needs to make thorough preparations to prevent fresh skirmishes from happening on the West Sea and prevent them from causing the worst case scenario like the North Korean military’s artillery bombardments” on a South Korean border island, Cheong said.

South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said the North Korean artillery firings Monday breached a 2018 inter-Korean accord on reducing military animosities and undermines stability on the Korean Peninsula. It said the North Korean shells didn’t land in South Korean waters but South Korea is boosting its military readiness.

The General Staff of the North’s Korean People’s Army accused South Korea of provoking animosities near their land border as well as with its own artillery tests and propaganda loudspeaker broadcasts. South Korea has already confirmed it performed artillery firings last week as part of its regular military exercises, but denied that it resumed the loudspeaker broadcasts that both Koreas halted under the 2018 agreement.

“The KPA General Staff once again sends a grave warning to the enemies who made even naval intrusion in the wake of such provocations as the recent artillery firing and loudspeaker broadcasting on the ground front,” the North’s statement said.

North Korea has said its recent weapons tests involving nuclear-capable missiles and artillery shells were a response to joint South Korean-U.S. military drills that it views as an invasion rehearsal.

Some observers say North Korea could extend its spate of testing, conduct its first nuclear test in five years or launch other provocations near the western sea border or elsewhere as South Korean and U.S. militaries continue their combined military exercises.

“Pyongyang’s politics of blaming external threats and projecting confidence in military capabilities can motivate greater risk taking,” said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. “North Korean probing of South Korean perimeter defenses could lead to a serious exchange of fire and unintended escalation.”

The South Korean military is currently conducting its annual field exercises, which involve U.S. troops this year. As part of the drills, the South Korean and U.S. militaries began large-scale, four-day firing exercises off the peninsula’s west coast on Monday. The drills would mobilize South Korean destroyers and fighter jets and U.S. helicopters and aircraft, the South Korean navy said in a statement.

Washington and Seoul had scaled back or canceled their regular drills in recent years to support their now-dormant nuclear diplomacy with North Korea or guard against the COVID-19 pandemic. But the allies have been reviving or expanding those trainings since the May inauguration of conservative South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, who vows a tougher stance on North Korean provocation.

Next week, South Korea and the United States are to hold joint air force drills involving some 240 warplanes, including F-35 fighters operated by both nations. The drills are aimed at inspecting the two countries’ joint operation capabilities and improving combat readiness, according to the South Korean military.

Some experts say the North Korean tests also suggest its leader Kim Jong Un has no intentions of resuming stalled nuclear diplomacy with Washington anytime soon as he would want to focus on further modernizing his nuclear arsenal to boost his leverage in future negotiations with the United States.

AP · by HYUNG-JIN KIM · October 23, 2022

2. Don’t Let Up on North Korea

Don’t Let Up on North Korea

https://www.instapaper.com/text?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2022%2F10%2F21%2Fopinion%2Fletters%2Fpoll-economy-democracy.html%23link-4a822afb

To the Editor:

In “It’s Time to Accept That North Korea Has Nuclear Weapons” (Opinion guest essay, nytimes.com, Oct. 13), Jeffrey Lewis urges the United States “to face reality” and stop pressing Pyongyang to disarm. He’s wrong, and his advice will lead to a more dangerous world.

The crux of his argument is that President Trump, at his February 2019 summit in Hanoi with Kim Jong-un, should have taken the limited nuclear deal Mr. Kim offered.

Mr. Lewis notes that the deal could have allowed the parties to negotiate “commitments of good behavior from Pyongyang and perhaps even some gesture toward disarmament in exchange for sanctions relief and economic assistance.” Yet Washington has tried to purchase good behavior many times since 1994, only to see Pyongyang break almost all its promises.

Another glaring flaw in Mr. Lewis’s approach is that welcoming North Korea into the nuclear club would guarantee that Iran pursues nuclear weapons, confident it would never be held accountable. This would also push Iran’s neighbors to go nuclear.

By trying to solve the growing threat from Pyongyang, Mr. Lewis would create many others.

Anthony Ruggiero

Washington

The writer is senior director of the nonproliferation and biodefense program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He was director for North Korea (2018-19) and senior director for counterproliferation and biodefense (2019-21) on the National Security Council.

3. Koreas exchange warning shots along sea border

Poorly marked "boundary" or "border?" First, the Northern Limit Line (NLL) is not an internationally recognized boundary or border between north and South. It was an administrative measure imposed after the Armistice by the UN Command to prevent South Korean ships from traveling too far north and too close to north Korea. It has become a de facto boundary or border but it is not an agreed upon boundary.

Koreas exchange warning shots along sea border

Politico

The poorly marked boundary is a source of long-running animosities.

An Army Tactical Missile System or ATACMS missile is fired during a joint military drill between U.S. and South Korea at an undisclosed location in South Korea, Wednesday, Oct. 5, 2022. | South Korea Defense Ministry via AP

By Associated Press

10/23/2022 06:03 PM EDT

SEOUL, South Korea — The rival Koreas exchanged warning shots along near their disputed western sea boundary on Monday, their militaries said, amid heightened tensions over North Korea’s recent barrage of weapons tests.

South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement that its navy fired warning shots to repel a North Korean merchant ship that it says violated the sea boundary early Monday.

North Korea’s military said it’s responded by firing 10 rounds of artillery shells as a warning to South Korea. It accused a South Korean navy ship of intruding into North Korean waters.

The poorly marked sea boundary off the Korean Peninsula’s west coast is a source of long-running animosities between the Koreas. It’s a scene of several bloody inter-Korean naval skirmishes and violence in recent years, including the two attacks in 2010 that killed 50 South Koreans.

In recent weeks, North Korea has carried out a string of weapons tests in response to what it calls provocative military drills between South Korea and the United States. Since Sept. 25, North Korea has fired 15 missiles and hundreds of artillery shells toward the sea.

Seoul and Washington routinely conduct military drills to maintain their readiness against potential North Korean aggressions. The allies say their drills are defensive in nature, but North Korea views them as an invasion rehearsal.

South Korean military is under annual field exercises set to end this Friday. This year’s drills involve an unspecified number of U.S. troops.

Some experts say North Korea’s recent weapons tests are also designed to bolster its arsenals to boost its leverage in future negotiations with its rivals.

POLITICO

Politico

4. Opinion | BTS not seeking a military exemption speaks volumes

BTS' civic duty tracked by the US media.

Opinion | BTS not seeking a military exemption speaks volumes

Not seeking a special exemption from mandatory service probably saved the globally beloved performers from having public opinion turn against them at home in South Korea.

NBC News · by Kuan-lin F. Liu, writer focusing on race and gender · October 23, 2022

The K-pop superstars of the boy band BTS made headlines around the world Monday when their agency, BigHit Music, announced that all seven members would fulfill their military service in South Korea.

It put to rest the speculation on whether or not the members of the band would be exempt from the country’s mandate that all able-bodied men serve 18 to 21 months in the military. The BTS Army, the group’s global fandom, may be lamenting the news and dreading the time ahead without new music, but the move probably saved the globally beloved performers from having public opinion turn against them at home.

In the history of South Korean entertainment, military service has been a complicated issue for male celebrities.

I’m no celebrity nor South Korean but, as a Taiwanese citizen, I’ve had my own experience with conscription interrupting the trajectory of my life.

It is worth noting that military service in the two countries is not comparable. One of the key differences is the time requirement. The Taiwanese conscription is either four months or a year, with those born after Jan. 1, 1994 required to serve only four months. And, for the sake of full transparency, I will say the military service I did in Taiwan is what is known as alternative or substitute military service. I spent my year as an English-teaching conscript in a remote school in Taiwan.

Even so, the lack of freedom that is most criticized about conscription remains the same. Growing up, I hated knowing that I would have to pause my studies or career for a whole year and enlist in the military before I was 36. Because I grew up attending schools in the West, I envied my peers who did not have to worry about conscription or plan their 20s around it. Yet, no matter how begrudgingly, I accepted from an early age that the year of military service would happen because fulfilling one’s civic duty is important in Taiwan.

Because I grew up attending schools in the West, I envied my peers who did not have to worry about conscription or plan their 20s around it.

Although many know of at least one person who has gotten out of conscription on a technicality, and many young men in Taiwan see military service as a waste of time, it is one of those realities that is near impossible to avoid and not worth the hassle to try. So I accepted my fate and even made sacrifices for it.

At 21, I graduated college half a year early and said goodbye to my friends in the middle of my senior year in the U.S. I relinquished my right as an international student on an F-1 visa to optional practical training, which would have allowed me to stay and work in the country without an employer’s sponsorship for 12 months.

I did all of this to ensure that I could return to Taiwan and complete my military service as soon as possible to minimize the disruption it would pose to my academic and career plans. For that reason, I can understand why one might find it unfair and even upsetting if someone were to be granted special exemption from military service, even if that someone was BTS, whom I stan.

K-pop group 'BTS' to enlist in South Korean military

Oct. 19, 202202:17

In the history of South Korean entertainment, military service has been a complicated issue for male celebrities.

Taking a nearly two-year hiatus to enlist at the height of one’s career, as A-list actor Gong Yoo did in 2008, may be hard to bear, but evading conscription or even attempting to do so can come at a career-ruining price.

The case of Korean-American entertainer Steve Yoo, a pop icon in South Korea in the 1990s, is perhaps the most infamous one. Yoo renounced his Korean citizenship after becoming a naturalized U.S. citizen in 2002, a move that South Korean officials interpreted as him trying to dodge his scheduled draft, which he had promised to comply with. Yoo has said that he didn’t intend to get out of his military duties, but his actions outraged the public. To make matters worse, the Korean government imposed an entry ban on him that remains in place to this day, despite multiple appeals.

If there is anything to learn from Yoo’s case, it is that South Koreans do not take kindly to their citizens looking for loopholes out of military service.

BTS gets political for inclusion

June 2, 202205:20

But BTS never appeared to attempt to avoid conscription. In fact, it was others, including government officials, who suggested a special exemption for the group (and other successful K-pop artists) because of its unprecedented global success. Indeed, many argue the group has already contributed more to its country than most people ever will in their lifetime. BTS has added an estimated $5 billion a year to the economy and dramatically increased the popularity of K-pop and Korean culture globally.

Nonetheless, had BTS been exempted from military service, there would have been detractors criticizing the group for receiving special treatment. After all, the South Korean public, especially young people, is quite divided on whether BTS members should carry out their military duties.

From the outside looking in, it is undeniable that the members of one of the most popular bands in the world would have more to give up by enlisting than the average South Korean. However, when ordinary citizens are forced to serve, most will feel that the life they are putting on hold is just as important as a celebrity’s.

When I was in college in the U.S., I met a number of South Korean students who were returning to campus after pausing their studies at the end of their sophomore year to complete military service. They said it felt like starting college over again, especially because the class they matriculated with had graduated and moved on in the two years they were gone. Not having friends with whom they enjoyed freshman orientation and other time-honored college traditions around was particularly hard.

Thinking about these stories, what I admire about BTS is how earnest and consistent their answers about military service have been over the years. As the oldest of the group, Jin has been at the receiving end of multiple questions about enlistment. He always stated that he would be ready to answer the call of duty when it came. If news of the group’s military service had come out when I was enlisting, I would have found it inspiring and reassuring.

Despite what some may say about my type of service not being “real military service,” my year teaching English was still a sacrifice and did contribute to the country. It ended up being one of the best years of my life. What I dreaded would be a waste of time was actually a meaningful year of serving a community, putting other people first and learning more about Taiwan, the home that had never felt like home before.

When BigHit Music signed off its statement with “There’s much more yet to come in the years ahead from BTS,” I could not help but think about how different my life is now from the one I had planned for myself before military service — and how grateful I am for this life. I salute the BTS members for their decision to carry out their military service, and I, like the rest of the BTS Army, will be eagerly awaiting their safe return and anticipating their next act.

NBC News · by Kuan-lin F. Liu, writer focusing on race and gender · October 23, 2022

5. N. Korea finalizes selection of workers to join reconstruction efforts in Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine

The regime seems to be serious about sending workers (assuming this report is accurate).

I am sure that the regime, China, and Russia have little concern for sanctions.

N. Korea finalizes selection of workers to join reconstruction efforts in Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine

“North Korea, China and Russia have agreed that sending North Korean workers to Russian-occupied areas would not constitute a violation of sanctions,” a source told Daily NK

By Mun Dong Hui - 2022.10.21 10:00am

dailynk.com

Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un in Vladivostok, Russia, on April 25, 2019. (Sputnik/Alexei Nikolsky/Kremlin via Reuters)

North Korea has completed the process of selecting workers to take part in reconstruction efforts in Russian-occupied parts of eastern Ukraine, with plans to send the workers to the region in early November.

A source in North Korea told Daily NK on Monday that the authorities carried out the selection in Pyongyang from July, and that “800 to 1,000” workers were recruited.

Daily NK reported in August that North Korea had planned to send some North Korean workers already in Russia to the Donbas, and that North Korean authorities had also selected workers in North Korea to dispatch to the region.

In fact, Daily NK’s source said the newly selected workers in North Korea would be sent in turns in small teams of 30 to 60 people.

“No firm date has been selected, but they plan to send the selected workers in early November as they select new workers,” he said.

This suggests that North Korea — having weighed when to send the workers while carefully watching the progress of the war — is preparing to send personnel in early November, and also intends to conduct a second round of selections of workers to send to the Donbas.

As for how the workers would get where they need to go, officials are discussing plans to send them by train from the northeastern city of Rason, or by flying them aboard an Air Koryo flight to Vladivostok. Also reportedly being discussed is a plan to send them to Moscow or Saint Petersburg via Beijing.

The source said China has “decided to feign ignorance” since the workers are only transiting through the country, not stepping foot in it.

“North Korea, China and Russia have agreed that sending North Korean workers to Russian-occupied areas would not constitute a violation of sanctions,” he said.

The source added that since sending the workers to Russia through Beijing would cost about the same as sending them through Vladivostok, officials are largely considering sending the workers through the Russian city.

Adopted in December of 2017, United Nations Security Council Resolution 2397 bans the dispatch of North Korean workers overseas. The source said North Korea has been considering ways to circumvent these sanctions, and is now strongly considering plans to directly send workers to Russia.

North Korea’s decision to send the workers in several rotations rather than all at once was likely made with sanctions in mind, too.

The Economic Affairs Department of the Workers’ Party’s Central Committee managed the selection of workers to send to the Donbas, according to the source.

“The Supreme Leader [Kim Jong Un] has direct authority to select and dispatch workers to send overseas, but in 2021, the Central Committee’s Economic Affairs Department was named the department with the authority over the selection and dispatch of workers overseas,” said the source.

“The Economic Affairs Department issues its recommendations to the agencies in charge, selecting, managing and dispatching the people on the list, while Cabinet ministries and regional party committees all do as the Economic Affairs Department commands,” he added.

In particular, the source said most of the people who volunteered to work in the Donbas hail from areas outside of Pyongyang. He said since provincial people are on the verge of death either way, they volunteered “ready to die just to hold a single dollar bill, even if they have to pay their planned contributions.”

This means provincial residents suffering from economic distress volunteered to head overseas and make money, even in the face of physical danger and excessive “loyalty fund’ payments.

On the other hand, most residents of the capital Pyongyang and other major cities avoided applying due to the dangers in what amounts to a conflict zone, no matter how much the Russians claim to “occupy” it.

Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.

Read in Korean

dailynk.com

6. North Korean freighter breaches de facto sea border

The Joongang Ilbo has a better undertanding of the NLL (Northern Limit Line)

Monday

October 24, 2022

dictionary + A - A

North Korean freighter breaches de facto sea border

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2022/10/24/national/northKorea/korea-nll-northern-limit-line/20221024185232344.html

National Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup, left, and Gen. Kim Seung-kyum, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, right, attend a parliamentary audit hearing on Monday at the National Assembly in Yeouido, western Seoul, to answer questions about North Korean provocations and the Yoon Suk-yeol administration’s North Korea policy. [NEWS1]

Seoul and Pyongyang exchanged warning shots in the Yellow Sea on Monday morning after a North Korean freighter crossed the Northern Limit Line (NLL) for nearly 40 minutes.

No casualties or damage were reported.

It was the first time Pyongyang breached the NLL since President Yoon Suk-yeol was sworn into office on May 10.

The NLL is a disputed maritime border in the Yellow Sea. While the South has patrolled the area since the end of the 1950-53 Korean War, the North does not recognize it and insists that the line should be drawn further south.

According to South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), a North Korean freight vessel called the Mupo crossed the NLL at around 3:42 a.m. on Monday, about 27 kilometers (16.8 miles) northwest of South Korea’s Baengnyeong Island.

It then sailed 3.3 kilometers south.

South Korean and U.S. intelligence believe the Mupo carried a Scud-C short-range ballistic missile to Syria in 1991 and is still controlled by the North Korean military.

A South Korean military official told local reporters that Seoul had been tracking the Mupo’s movement earlier Monday as it was heading towards the NLL and made several announcements warning the vessel not to come near the border.

It ignored the warnings, the military official said, and kept sailing south.

Military sources who spoke on the condition of anonymity said a 2,800-ton Daegu-class frigate from the South was quickly dispatched to nearby waters, coming as close as within 1 kilometer from the North Korean vessel. South Korea's military fired about 20 warning shots with an M60 machine gun from the frigate.

The Mupo retreated and headed back north at about 4:20 a.m.

Once the Mupo was back in North Korean waters, the JCS said Pyongyang fired 10 artillery shots into a buffer zone in the Yellow Sea, reaching as close to 15 kilometers away from Baengnyeong Island and violating an inter-Korean military agreement signed on Sept. 19, 2018.

Later Monday morning, a statement that was released by an unnamed spokesperson for North Korea’s General Staff of the Korean People’s Army and carried by the state-run Korean Central News Agency accused the South of “invading” the maritime border.

The North’s Army said it was sending a “grave warning” to enemy forces making naval intrusions.

North Korea’s provocations came less than a week after it fired nearly 350 artillery shots into the Yellow Sea maritime buffer zone last Tuesday and Wednesday.

North Korea experts believe Pyongyang stayed low-key over the past several days so as not to irk its closest ally, China, which held its 20th National Congress of the Communist Party. During the meeting, Chinese President Xi Jinping secured a third term.

In response to North Korea’s latest threat, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol’s office said that the more Pyongyang heightens its threats, the more it will be isolated in the international community and the more “devastated” the lives of its people will become.

Yoon’s office said Seoul and Washington were monitoring the situation closely and preparing for all possible scenarios.

Military experts predict the North will carry out more threats this week as South Korea conducts a large-scale military exercise in the Yellow Sea. The exercise kicked off on Monday and is scheduled to last through Thursday, joined by the Korean Air Force, Coast Guard, Army as well as American troops.

A South Korean military official said the exercise was also planning to practice ways to respond to North Korean forces possibly attacking the South near the NLL.

From next Monday to Nov. 4, the South Korean and U.S. allies are scheduled to hold a large-scale combined military exercise involving nearly 240 warplanes from both countries. A local military source said Pyongyang is particularly sensitive about such aerial exercises, so much so that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un moves his office to an underground bunker.

BY LEE SUNG-EUN, KIM SANG-JIN [lee.sungeun@joongang.co.kr]

7. NK’s nuclear test imminent after China’s Congress, watchers say

Excerpts:

Bruce Bennett, a senior researcher at the Rand Institute, told RFA that North Korean leader Kim has to detonate a bigger weapon to get much attention, adding that the North will grant itself the status of a nuclear state.”

David Albright, the director of the Institute for Science and International Security, told Voice of America that if the test is a high-power test of 100 to 150 kt (kilotons) or more, it means (the North) is seeking to develop a thermonuclear bomb (hydrogen bomb) that can be loaded on missiles.”

NK’s nuclear test imminent after China’s Congress, watchers say

donga.com

Posted October. 24, 2022 07:48,

Updated October. 24, 2022 07:48

NK’s nuclear test imminent after China’s Congress, watchers say. October. 24, 2022 07:48. weappon@donga.com.

With the conclusion of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, which confirmed Chinese President Xi Jinping’s third consecutive term, there is speculation that North Korea's seventh nuclear test is imminent. U.S. nuclear experts say North Korea could conduct a series of nuclear tests, including tactical nuclear tests and a hydrogen bomb test at a third secretive nuclear test site other than the Punggye-ri nuclear test site where the first to sixth nuclear tests were conducted.

“North Korea will be waiting for Chairman Kim Jong Un’s decision on the timing of additional nuclear tests,” Olli Heinonen, a special researcher at the Stimson Center who served as the deputy director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, told Radio Free Asia on Friday. "We need to prepare for the possibility of the North conducting the test at a place other than Punggye-ri.”

Earlier on Thursday, Beyond Parallel under the US think tank Center for Strategy and International Studies said. At the same time, preparations for a nuclear test in Tunnel 3 were completed, the restoration work for Tunnel 4 was stopped. Beyond Parallel announced this after analyzing satellite images of Punggye-ri taken on Sunday last week. This outlet also noted that North Korea has the resources to conduct nuclear tests elsewhere. As the Punggye-ri Tunnel 3 is considered a site for testing tactical nuclear weapons and the restoration of Tunnel 4, which is used for large-scale explosion tests, is being delayed, watchers say North Korea could seek to conduct a series of nuclear tests at a secretive nuclear test site.

Bruce Bennett, a senior researcher at the Rand Institute, told RFA that North Korean leader Kim has to detonate a bigger weapon to get much attention, adding that the North will grant itself the status of a nuclear state.”

David Albright, the director of the Institute for Science and International Security, told Voice of America that if the test is a high-power test of 100 to 150 kt (kilotons) or more, it means (the North) is seeking to develop a thermonuclear bomb (hydrogen bomb) that can be loaded on missiles.”

한국어

donga.com

8. [ANALYSIS] What 3rd term for Xi Jinping means for S.Korea

Excerpts:

"Policymakers should understand that both Washington and Beijing's pressure on Seoul will grow as Xi is set to apply protectionist policies to its key trading partners by giving them preferential treatment, a similar policy espoused by the Biden administration," a senior trade policy secretary under the former Moon Jae-in administration said via telephone to The Korea Times. "Seoul's trade policies should be focused on addressing concerns about how various credit provisions will work in practice with regard to South Korean semiconductor and battery manufacturers in China and the United States. We have to understand that the limits of a middle power are real."

...

Given South Korea's support for various Washington-led initiatives such as Chip 4, the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) and joint and trilateral military drills including Japan, no signs are appearing yet for improvements in Seoul-Beijing relations, say political analysts.

Beijing stands opposed to Seoul's deeper military ties with Washington. While it's unlikely for South Korea to be accepted as a member of the Quad, viewed by China as a kind of Asian version of NATO, China was hoping to see fewer military drills with the U.S.' key Northeast Asian allies, if not stopped altogether.

Under Xi's third term, China plans to put more emphasis on handling the Taiwan Strait issue. The country has shown a quite muted response to recent military provocations by North Korea. Because there is consensus by Washington and Seoul officials that North Korea is very close to conducting another nuclear test ― its seventh such test ― if it happens, South Korea's defense cooperation with the United States will deepen further.

[ANALYSIS] What 3rd term for Xi Jinping means for S.Korea

The Korea Times · October 24, 2022

Under Xi Jinping's third term, South Korea will need detailed policies to leverage its strengths in chips, batteries as US-China tensions continue

By Kim Yoo-chul

Chinese President Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party have tightened their grip on power further by approving Xi's third term in office.

Xi has already been in power for a decade, a period characterized by growing authoritarianism in the world's second-largest economy. Political analysts and executives at South Korea's leading export companies believe Xi will maintain his assertive stance in the coming years, especially regarding cross-strait issues and the ongoing trade dispute with the United States.

As Xi's extension could embolden him, Seoul's presidential office is now tasked to specify additional detailed plans for the battery and semiconductor industries. The two industries, in which South Korea clearly has global dominance, have been identified as nationally significant industries by the U.S. and China in their race for technological supremacy.

"Policymakers should understand that both Washington and Beijing's pressure on Seoul will grow as Xi is set to apply protectionist policies to its key trading partners by giving them preferential treatment, a similar policy espoused by the Biden administration," a senior trade policy secretary under the former Moon Jae-in administration said via telephone to The Korea Times. "Seoul's trade policies should be focused on addressing concerns about how various credit provisions will work in practice with regard to South Korean semiconductor and battery manufacturers in China and the United States. We have to understand that the limits of a middle power are real."

No transactional relations?

With less than three weeks until the U.S. midterm elections, various poll results have shown that Republicans may take more seats in the House of Representatives. But mainstream thinking suggests that regardless of the outcome of the elections, the hawkish policy stance toward China, which was originally sought by the former Trump administration, will stay.

"Despite its yearlong trade war against the United States, China still views its bitter relationship with the United States as transactional. But the central point is that it's very unlikely Washington may concede on some issues it considers as competitive even after its midterm elections," said Yeon Won-ho, head of the economic security team at the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy.

"Because it's just unrealistic to expect South Korea's middle-level power to alleviate geopolitical tensions, it is necessary from Seoul's viewpoint to set up an independent body with trade and finance ministry officials and presidential secretaries for a coordinated approach on chip and battery supply chain-related issues."

Yeon stressed that Seoul's role is somewhat flexible and expandable in areas relating to chips and batteries in China given XI's focus on semiconductor self-sufficiency.

Chinese President Xi Jinping looks on as former Chinese President Hu Jintao is assisted to leave the hall during the closing ceremony of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, Oct. 22. AP-Yonhap

The U.S. recently identified China as posing a challenge to its national interests in the coming years. While it has also mentioned cooperative aspects in the bilateral relationship, such as promoting global health, no clear details have been announced on how and when this may be achieved.

Citing the U.S. Department of Commerce's recent decision to limit the sale of chip equipment to Chinese customers, Jeong In-kyo, a professor of international trade at Incheon University, said Seoul's top trade policymakers will need deep discussions with their U.S. and Chinese counterparts on ways to minimize outstanding risks as the world's top two economies are on track to strengthen their respective protectionist policies amid their deepening rivalry.

"I would recommend the country's trade policymakers take scenario-based strategies until the U.S.-China relationship sees an improvement," Jeong said.

Bernstein's analysts led by Mark Li said the newly announced restrictions plugged loopholes in the prior restrictions. China will not be able to improve its chip technologies as quickly as before and probably has no visible choice but to focus on the mature part of the business.

China is South Korea's largest trading partner, followed by the U.S. Last month, South Korea exported $13.4 billion to China, 60 percent of which was related to semiconductors, data from the trade ministry showed. However, the incumbent Yoon Suk-yeol administration is focusing on deepening bilateral ties with the U.S. both economically and diplomatically.

Given the volume of South Korean investments in China and the level of technology being applied to Chinese tech companies, chances are low for China to impose any discriminative measures against South Korean tech companies there in the foreseeable future. China is focusing on improving its self-sufficiency rate in memory semiconductors, which Samsung and SK currently lead.

"Because China needs to retain Samsung, LG and SK's tech affiliates in the coming years, at least until its self-sufficiency rate in memory chips and batteries reaches its target, South Korean tech firms will become one of the top beneficiaries of subsidies from both central and regional Chinese governments. Looking ahead, as Xi commits himself to continue China's rivalry with the U.S on the tech front, South Korean trade policymakers should set up hotlines with their counterparts in China and the U.S. to stress South Korea's deliverables regarding these issues and near-term position," said a lawmaker of the ruling People Power Party (PPP).

In the electric vehicle (EV) industry, which is also led by South Korea as the country is home to the world's leading battery producers ― LG Energy Solution (LGES) and Samsung SDI ― it is understood that the government will keep communication channels open with Beijing and Washington on a regular rather than an as-needed basis.

"The United States needs South Korea and China needs South Korea. South Korea has a lot of diplomatic options and I would say the key question is how to highlight the country's position to help Seoul maintain a kind of deliberate ambiguity," an executive at SK said.

No imminent breakthroughs visible in Seoul-Beijing ties

Given South Korea's support for various Washington-led initiatives such as Chip 4, the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) and joint and trilateral military drills including Japan, no signs are appearing yet for improvements in Seoul-Beijing relations, say political analysts.

Beijing stands opposed to Seoul's deeper military ties with Washington. While it's unlikely for South Korea to be accepted as a member of the Quad, viewed by China as a kind of Asian version of NATO, China was hoping to see fewer military drills with the U.S.' key Northeast Asian allies, if not stopped altogether.

Under Xi's third term, China plans to put more emphasis on handling the Taiwan Strait issue. The country has shown a quite muted response to recent military provocations by North Korea. Because there is consensus by Washington and Seoul officials that North Korea is very close to conducting another nuclear test ― its seventh such test ― if it happens, South Korea's defense cooperation with the United States will deepen further.

"The Yoon Suk-yeol administration has clarified its pro-U.S. stance as well as its aim to improve Seoul-Tokyo relations and its active participation in the regional security alliance between the United States and Japan," said Kim Han-kwon, a professor at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy. "I would say chances are very low for Xi to visit South Korea or for China to declare the ending of its discriminative measures against South Korean firms due to Seoul's earlier decision to deploy a U.S.-based anti-missile shield system."

The Korea Times · October 24, 2022

9. S. Korea's Navy kicks off large-scale joint drills in West Sea

S. Korea's Navy kicks off large-scale joint drills in West Sea

The Korea Times · October 24, 2022

South Korean Aegis destroyer, the King Sejong the Great, joins a South Korea-U.S. joint military drill in this Nov. 12, 2017 file photo. Courtesy of Republic of Korea Navy

South Korea's Navy said Monday it has started a large-scale exercise in the West Sea on Monday, joined by the Army, the Air Force and the Coast Guard as well as American troops.

The four-day training is being held as part of the annual ongoing Hoguk drills that will run until Oct. 28.

It is aimed at enhancing the military's combined and joint maritime operational capabilities against enemy provocations with a focus on improving capabilities of maritime counter special operation forces and responses to North Korea's provocations near the Northern Limit Line (NLL), the de facto maritime border, the Navy said.

It added more than 20 warships, including Aegis destroyers and frigates, will be mobilized, along with the Army's Apache helicopter and the Air Force's F-15K and F-16 fighter jets. The U.S. Army's Apache helicopters and its Air Force's A-10 aircraft will join the training as well.

Earlier in the day, South Korea's military said it fired warning shots at a North Korean ship that crossed the NLL. The North fired multiple rocket launcher shots into the waters in response. (Yonhap)

The Korea Times · October 24, 2022

10. S. Korea to participate in US-led cyber exercise for 1st time

Good. And it should not be the last.

S. Korea to participate in US-led cyber exercise for 1st time

The Korea Times · October 24, 2022

Getty images bank

South Korea's military is set to participate in a U.S.-led multinational exercise on cyber operations this week, the defense ministry said Monday, amid growing security threats from North Korea.

Eighteen personnel from the South's military will join the Cyber Flag exercise to be held from Monday to Friday in Virginia, according to the ministry. Since 2011, the U.S. Cyber Command has conducted the exercise annually to enhance the readiness of Washington and its allies against malicious cyber activities.

"Our military's participation in the Cyber Flag exercise will provide an important opportunity to strengthen the readiness among allies against cyber threats and build partnerships," said Brig. Gen. Kim Han-sung, commander of the Cyber Operations Command in Seoul.

The exercise, which includes both seminars and cyber field training, will be joined by 25 countries this year.

In May, President Yoon Suk-yeol and his American counterpart, Joe Biden, agreed during their first summit to "deepen and broaden cooperation on critical and emerging technologies and cybersecurity." (Yonhap)

The Korea Times · October 24, 2022

11. N. Korea dispatches “party guidance teams” to watch over fall harvest efforts

Excerpts:

Based on the source’s account, party guidance teams were dispatched to collective farms in Hoeryong, North Hamgyong Province, on Oct. 5. The officials have been surveying the work units and assessing the results of the day’s rice harvest and threshing on a daily basis.

The party guidance teams are checking the attendance rates and output of work unit members. The teams also come out in the evenings to watch over the threshing floor until the day’s work is finished. Daily NK’s source explained that officials are guarding the threshing floor to prevent farmers from siphoning off grain during the threshing process.

It is a common practice on North Korean collective farms to buy pigs, goats, and dogs on credit for the farmers to eat during the spring corn planting and rice transplanting seasons. The farms then pay back this debt with corn and rice harvested in the fall. With a portion of the crop yields going to repay this debt, yields drop by dozens or even hundreds of kilograms below the initial amount of crops harvested.

Essentially, the party guidance teams are watching over the threshing floors until late at night to prevent farmers from siphoning off crops to use to pay back the debts. This has put farm managers in a tough spot.

N. Korea dispatches “party guidance teams” to watch over fall harvest efforts

“It’s rare to see party guidance teams having a mix of members from so many different institutions,” a source told Daily NK

By Kim Chae Hwan -

2022.10.21 5:00pm

dailynk.com

Farmers on the Chilgol Vegetable Farm in Mangyongdae District, Pyongyang. (Yonhap)

In early October, North Korea dispatched special teams made up of party cadres to collective farms across the country as part of efforts to prevent the loss of harvested crops.

According to a source in North Hamgyong Province last Thursday, the teams, called “party guidance teams,” are composed of province, county, and city-level party committee workers, as well as members of people’s committees, prosecutors’ offices, and other important institutions.

The teams have been comprehensively identifying problems with the fall harvest, and have been reporting on a daily basis to upper-level party committees about their observations.

According to the source, the reporting system is as follows: When farm work unit leaders (farm managers) report the daily volume of grain harvested and threshed to the party guidance teams, the teams then report the amount of grain produced each day to county and city party committees. The county and city party committees then report these figures to the provincial party committees.

“It’s rare to see party guidance teams having a mix of members from so many different institutions,” the source said. “If the teams are composed of members from a single institution, it’s possible for bribery or some other kind of corruption to crop up. That’s probably the reason why the authorities have sent out teams made up of members from different institutions.”

Based on the source’s account, party guidance teams were dispatched to collective farms in Hoeryong, North Hamgyong Province, on Oct. 5. The officials have been surveying the work units and assessing the results of the day’s rice harvest and threshing on a daily basis.

The party guidance teams are checking the attendance rates and output of work unit members. The teams also come out in the evenings to watch over the threshing floor until the day’s work is finished. Daily NK’s source explained that officials are guarding the threshing floor to prevent farmers from siphoning off grain during the threshing process.

It is a common practice on North Korean collective farms to buy pigs, goats, and dogs on credit for the farmers to eat during the spring corn planting and rice transplanting seasons. The farms then pay back this debt with corn and rice harvested in the fall. With a portion of the crop yields going to repay this debt, yields drop by dozens or even hundreds of kilograms below the initial amount of crops harvested.

Essentially, the party guidance teams are watching over the threshing floors until late at night to prevent farmers from siphoning off crops to use to pay back the debts. This has put farm managers in a tough spot.

“The custom of paying for the cost of purchasing livestock through credit with crops harvested in the fall is aimed at encouraging farmers to work hard,” the source said. “With party guidance teams watching over the threshing process, farmers are concerned about how they’ll pay back the debts, even complaining that the only thing their loyalty to the government will leave them is debt.”

Many farmers are expressing unhappiness because they feel like they will have to carry this year’s debts until next autumn, the source added.

Translated by Rose Adams.

Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.

Read in Korean

dailynk.com

12. N. Koreans on border taken aback by border patrol’s sudden live-fire drills

Increase tension with CHina?

Excerpts:

The exercises appear to be part of the North Korean government’s efforts to elevate a sense of tension in the China-North Korea border region amid recent military provocations, including ballistic missile launches.

...

With the exception of frontline units and special forces units, military units usually conduct live-fire drills only in the final stages of their winter and summer exercises.

...

“I think this is the first time I’ve heard of the border guard carrying out nighttime shooting exercises like this,” said the source. “Upon hearing about the drills, people have been nervous, worrying that they could get shot if they aren’t careful around the border.”

The source also said that the 25th Border Guard Brigade rotated out various battalions and companies for the nighttime shooting drills to ensure no disruptions in the unit’s monitoring of the border.

N. Koreans on border taken aback by border patrol’s sudden live-fire drills

Ordinarily, military units conduct live-fire drills only in the final stages of their winter and summer exercises

By Kim Chae Hwan - 2022.10.24 11:06am

dailynk.com

FILE PHOTO: A sentry post on the Sino-North Korean border in Sakju County, North Pyongan Province. (Daily NK)

Yanggang Province’s 25th Border Guard Brigade recently conducted rare nighttime live-fire exercises, Daily NK has learned.

The exercises appear to be part of the North Korean government’s efforts to elevate a sense of tension in the China-North Korea border region amid recent military provocations, including ballistic missile launches.

According to a Daily NK source in Yanggang Province on Thursday, the 25th Border Guard Brigade carried out the live-fire exercises over three days, from Oct. 12 to Oct. 14.

Given that the border guard unit’s primary duty is to guard the border, the troops continued to patrol the frontier during the day, carrying out the firing exercises mostly at night.

With the exception of frontline units and special forces units, military units usually conduct live-fire drills only in the final stages of their winter and summer exercises.

Given that, locals were left wondering why the live-fire drills were conducted at night, particularly since they were held outside of the military’s regular period of drills.

In fact, people who have lived decades along the border said the international situation must be really tense “if the border guard is holding nighttime live-fire exercises.”

COMPLAINTS AMONG THE RANKS

Border patrol troops who monitor the border day and night complained of significant fatigue and dissatisfaction from the nighttime drills, Daily NK’s source said.

The negative attitudes of the soldiers were inevitable given that they had to dive straight into shooting drills after completing their patrols, he explained.

In fact, for three days, the soldiers of the 25th Border Guard Brigade’s subordinate units were reportedly dragged to the firing range for shooting drills immediately after completing their daytime patrols.

It takes about an hour and a half to walk to the firing range, so when soldiers returned after completing their shooting drills, they had to restart their monitoring of the border without any sleep.

“I think this is the first time I’ve heard of the border guard carrying out nighttime shooting exercises like this,” said the source. “Upon hearing about the drills, people have been nervous, worrying that they could get shot if they aren’t careful around the border.”

The source also said that the 25th Border Guard Brigade rotated out various battalions and companies for the nighttime shooting drills to ensure no disruptions in the unit’s monitoring of the border.

Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.

Read in Korean

dailynk.com

13. Mending the alternative military service system

Excerpt:

Paying a larger salary to Generation Z is necessary, but more importantly, we must create conditions that they can use their talents sufficiently. When the military becomes like isolated Galapagos Islands, nothing will work. While all youngsters should be drafted, we should have a policy to offer them the best positions and opportunities in the military. We need to create a clear principle to revise the alternative military service system to serve the demands of the time.

Monday

October 24, 2022

dictionary + A - A

Mending the alternative military service system

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2022/10/24/opinion/columns/military-service-BTS-birthrate/20221024195152798.html

Hong Kyu-dok

The author, former head of the Defense Reform Office at the Ministry of National Defense, is a professor of political science and foreign affairs at the Sookmyung Women’s University.

After Jin, the oldest member of the K-pop phenomenon BTS, canceled his application for a military deferment to follow through with the enlistment process, other members said they will follow him. ARMY, the fan group of the band, as well as most other people supported Jin’s decision, putting an end to a heated debate on whether BTS members should be given special treatment to serve in some kind of alternative service.

Because of a drastic shortage of military manpower resources, it is impossible to maintain the current alternative military service system. The peak of the baby-boomer generation were people born in 1971. In that year, Korea had 1.04 million newborns. Since then, the number of newborns decreased, and the country only had 260,000 in 2021. Roughly speaking, there is no more than 130,000 draftees even if they are all enlisted.

The low birthrate will continue. Demographers analyzed that a red light has been lit on Korea’s competitiveness along with rapid aging. The number of children a woman gives birth to during her lifetime fell to 0.75 in the second quarter from an average of 0.81 last year. This is a national crisis.

Many people think that the Korean military still maintains about 600,000 soldiers. But the number has already dropped to 500,000, and it will be hard to maintain that size by 2030. According to recent research commissioned by the Ministry of National Defense, the number will drop to 350,000 in late 2035. In this case, the number of draftees was estimated as 180,000, but taking into account the rapidly plummeting birthrate, the number will fall further.

Although the existence of the military is threatened, politicians repeatedly call for a shortening of the military service period and the introduction of a volunteer military service. The argument goes the same for the alternative military service system. Taking into account the demographics, it is inevitable to reduce the scope of alternative military service for those with special talents in sports and arts. Therefore, Jin’s decision made a great precedent. But we still need a detailed policy to offer an opportunity to the young draftees to make the best use of their capabilities in the military.

The military needs to systemically educate and manage science and technology specialists to avoid falling behind in the advanced artificial intelligence and science defense era. Israel’s Talpiot program is an elite training program of the country’s defense forces to recruit those who have demonstrated outstanding abilities in sciences. It is a classic case of how society, the military, universities and companies must educate talent and work together. The members are recruited through competition, and those trained in the Talpiot program do not have to worry about their future career paths. Their missions are conducted in a relatively free environment and the military values the outcome. There is hardly any conflict concerning disciplines and hierarchies, either.

Russia also operates a science specialist team. AK-47 rifles, the most widely-used assault rifles in the world, were invented by a military engineer while he was in the service. Russia enlists talented students from engineering schools to secure the technologies for the military. Their patented technologies are used in the military and defense companies. The military operates 17 technology companies to maintain an intellectual technology community in the military.

Korea did make a similar attempt. The Department of Cyber Defense at Korea University has a special contract with the military that all graduates will be commissioned as officers and serve for up to seven years. The first generation finishes their seven-year service this year and returns to society. The problem is that they cannot utilize their capabilities in the best positions. According to their accounts, the Korean military is an extremely rigid organization. Changing the way of working and introducing a culture of innovation, not changing the system, are more urgent.

During one semester, I offered a lecture, “War and Peace,” to engineering students at the Pohang University of Science and Technology. I visited a battalion of the Marine’s 1st Division with my students and experienced their service aboard an amphibious vehicle. I was surprised that one student showed interest in developing a power mechanism to maintain buoyancy and a technology to prevent water penetration. The military must think about how it can make the best use of the young talents and motivate them, and that is true defense reform.

Paying a larger salary to Generation Z is necessary, but more importantly, we must create conditions that they can use their talents sufficiently. When the military becomes like isolated Galapagos Islands, nothing will work. While all youngsters should be drafted, we should have a policy to offer them the best positions and opportunities in the military. We need to create a clear principle to revise the alternative military service system to serve the demands of the time.

Translation by the Korea JoongAng Daily staff.

14. More options than 'foundation-led' compensation considered for Japan's wartime forced labor, Seoul says

More options than 'foundation-led' compensation considered for Japan's wartime forced labor, Seoul says

Foreign Ministry rejects local reports in Japan, says 'nothing has been decided' on how to handle court ruling on historic dispute

koreaherald.com · by Jo He-rim · October 24, 2022

Nothing has been decided on how to handle the dispute concerning Japan's wartime forced labor, the South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Monday, refuting Japanese news reports that the two countries are considering a foundation-led compensation plan as the sole option.

Seoul’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said it is “not discussing that one specific solution only,” and that “nothing has been decided yet.” The ministry said it has delivered the opinions of the victims to Japanese government, and has also urged Japan to respond sincerely to the victims.

Japan’s Kyodo News reported late Sunday that the governments of South Korea and Japan are discussing a plan by which an independent foundation would pay compensation for Korean victims who were forced into labor by Japanese firms during wartime with contributions made by Korean companies.

Under the plan, the envisioned foundation would take on the liability of the Japanese companies that have been ordered by South Korea's top court to liquidate their local assets to pay compensation to the victims for their wartime wrongdoings.

Seoul's ministry also rejected the report that Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol are considering to meet on the sidelines of major international conferences scheduled next month, also saying on that has not been decided. International summits, including the Group of 20 Summit and Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation are planned for November.

The historic dispute of forced labor between South Korea and Japan has been one of the major sticking contributing to the deterioration of bilateral relations to the worst level in decades.

In 2018, South Korea's top court ordered the liquidation of local assets seized from two Japanese companies, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Nippon Steel, to provide compensation to victims they forced into labor during the Japan's 1910-1945 colonial rule of the Korean Peninsula.

The conflict has deepened as the Japanese firms refused to take liability and restated its government's position that all claims stemming from its annexation were "settled completely and finally" under a 1965 bilateral agreement.

As the Seoul top court has yet to deliver the final ruling on the asset liquidation, the Yoon Suk-yeol administration has been working to find a way to resolve the issue without liquidating the assets, as that would likely see bilateral relations with Japan plunge to their worst level.

Some alternative plans being discussed to handle the court's ruling without asset liquidation include a third party assuming the Japanese firm's liability, and Japanese companies taking part in donations with other Korean companies to provide the compensation for the damages.

A victims group has also demanded a sincere apology from the Japanese companies.

First Vice Minister Cho Hyun-dong is expected to discuss solutions to the forced labor issue with his Japanese counterpart this week on the sidelines of the 11th vice ministerial talks between South Korea, the United States and Japan, slated for Wednesday in Tokyo.

By Jo He-rim (herim@heraldcorp.com)

koreaherald.com · by Jo He-rim · October 24, 2022

15. Analysis | The West Has Failed: North Korea Is a Nuclear State

That does not mean we should give up. And we must not give in to regime demands for concessions. Let's move to Plan B and solve the :Korea question" - through a human rights upfront approach, sophisticated OVERT information and influence activities, and the pursuit of a free and unified Korea.

Excerpts:

A rethink is needed. For one thing, the US administration has already shown an admirable willingness to abandon the failed policies of previous administrations. From ending the war in Afghanistan, casting off decades of naive Democratic party China policy or de-escalating the War on Drugs with a reform of cannabis policy, President Joe Biden has discarded ideas he previously promoted.

...

Indeed, far from the stereotype of the crazy North Korean leader, Kim is being perfectly logical in seeking to keep his regime in one piece. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has put that in stark relief. Ukraine famously agreed to give up the nuclear weapons on its territory (though they were not under its control) after the fall of the Soviet Union, in exchange for security guarantees from the US, UK and Russia. Time has shown how valuable those assurances were. Iraq’s Saddam Hussein and Libya’s Moammar Al Qaddafi are other examples of leaders who abandoned their nuclear pursuits, only to meet gruesome ends.

...

Of course, there are significant risks. Pyongyang has proven not to be a trustworthy negotiating partner. Being seen to reward its obstinacy might embolden rogue regimes elsewhere. Even a tacit acceptance of North Korea’s position could also lead to another bout of proliferation. The South Korean public is already roundly in favor of also possessing nuclear weapons. Japan is understandably far more opposed but how might it react surrounded by four nuclear-armed states?

But doggedly pursuing a failed policy that has only become more unrealistic over the years isn’t getting the US and its allies anywhere — and the risk of accidental confrontation is only running higher.

Analysis | The West Has Failed: North Korea Is a Nuclear State

The Washington Post · by Gearoid Reidy | Bloomberg · October 23, 2022

The world might not want to hear it, but Kim Jong Un might be right.

“There will never be such a thing as our abandonment of the nuclear weapons or denuclearization,” Kim declared last month. “The position of our state as a nuclear nation has become irreversible.”

Decades of pursuing the “denuclearization” of the Korean peninsula has failed. After North Korea last month declared itself a nuclear weapons state, it’s time for the US and its allies to accept this reality — and learn to live with it. That’s the first step to reducing the risk of accidental confrontation that could lead to all-out nuclear war.

The idea is reaching the mainstream. Jeffrey Lewis, a leading nuclear weapons expert, has called on Washington to “contemplate the unthinkable” and accept North Korea’s nuclear statehood, citing the increasing risks of a flashpoint as South Korea and Japan talk up first-strike capability.

Washington should think “about the return we’re seeing on our stubborn continued insistence on denuclearization as the desired near-term end-state,” agrees Ankit Panda, a senior fellow in the nuclear policy program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “We have a far more acute interest on the Korean peninsula, which is averting the use of nuclear weapons by North Korea.”

A rethink is needed. For one thing, the US administration has already shown an admirable willingness to abandon the failed policies of previous administrations. From ending the war in Afghanistan, casting off decades of naive Democratic party China policy or de-escalating the War on Drugs with a reform of cannabis policy, President Joe Biden has discarded ideas he previously promoted.

And to describe the goal of denuclearization of the Korean peninsula as a bust would be generous. Beyond condemning millions to poverty after 30 years, the US has little to show for its punishing economic sanctions. Pyongyang has built itself a formidable arsenal: enough fissile material for dozens of nuclear bombs, and a demonstrated capacity for its missiles to hit US bases in Guam or the American mainland itself. More nuclear tests are feared soon, which would be the first in five years. Kim said last month he won’t budge even after 100 years of sanctions.

Absent a very dangerous policy of regime change, Kim is going to remain in charge, and in any event doesn’t have a way to climb down from nuclear weapons. The window for military action against North Korea closed during the Clinton administration, when the US considered a preemptive strike. It chose negotiation instead, which Pyongyang used as cover to speed development of its nuclear and missile programs.

North Korea’s new nuclear doctrine, unveiled in September, has further upped the ante, pledging automatic nuclear strikes on its enemies if its command-and-control leadership is threatened. Such a doctrine is a “logical reaction” to South Korea talking up its ability to deal a fatal blow to the North’s leadership, Panda says.

Indeed, far from the stereotype of the crazy North Korean leader, Kim is being perfectly logical in seeking to keep his regime in one piece. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has put that in stark relief. Ukraine famously agreed to give up the nuclear weapons on its territory (though they were not under its control) after the fall of the Soviet Union, in exchange for security guarantees from the US, UK and Russia. Time has shown how valuable those assurances were. Iraq’s Saddam Hussein and Libya’s Moammar Al Qaddafi are other examples of leaders who abandoned their nuclear pursuits, only to meet gruesome ends.

Kim could not be sure of any guarantee that Washington might give in return for denuclearization — especially when it’s US policy that has been most inconsistent. Flipping between dovish Democratic and hawkish Republican positions on Pyongyang (or in the case of Donald Trump’s administration, between “fire and fury” and love letters in the space of a few years) has resulted in head-snappingly inconsistent carrot-and-stick approaches.

Meanwhile, through a cycle of bait-and-switch negotiations and threats, Kim has managed to keep the US and South Korea distracted enough to complete his nuclear state. He’s on his fourth South Korean leader and third American president. He’s less than half Biden’s age; time is on his side, assuming he can avoid the heart problems that felled his father and grandfather.

Of course, there are significant risks. Pyongyang has proven not to be a trustworthy negotiating partner. Being seen to reward its obstinacy might embolden rogue regimes elsewhere. Even a tacit acceptance of North Korea’s position could also lead to another bout of proliferation. The South Korean public is already roundly in favor of also possessing nuclear weapons. Japan is understandably far more opposed but how might it react surrounded by four nuclear-armed states?

But doggedly pursuing a failed policy that has only become more unrealistic over the years isn’t getting the US and its allies anywhere — and the risk of accidental confrontation is only running higher.

K-drama ban won’t be good; use South Korea’s method as a model instead – solon

By: Gabriel Pabico Lalu - Inquirer.net

October 22,2022 - 10:08 AM

cebudailynews.inquirer.net · October 22, 2022

This undated handout picture provided on February 13, 2020, by South Korean cable television network TVN in Seoul shows a scene from the TV drama series “Crash Landing on You.” (tvN/AFP/File)

MANILA, Philippines — Instead of banning Korean dramas or K-dramas for their massive popularity in the country, why not just copy the system that allowed South Korea’s entertainment industry to flourish?

Rep. Joey Salceda of the 2nd District in Albay argues that the country should take a page out of South Korea’s playbook and consider banning Korean dramas to highlight the work of Filipino actors and artists.

Salceda, who also chairs the House ways and means committee, pointed out that the Philippine government needs to invest in a “creatives ecosystem” like in South Korea. He stressed that K-dramas are simply good and that South Korea has devised a strong economic recovery program by investing in its culture as a product.

“It’s not just that K-drama and K-pop, in general, is good. It’s that investing in K-culture was one of the best economic recovery strategies ever devised by any country in modern history. After the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997, Korea decided that its cultural exports were a way to earn dollars and achieve economic success. They were exceptionally correct,” the economist-lawmaker said.

“Instead of banning K-pop and K-drama, let’s copy the economic strategies that led to its rise,” he added.

“Our content can and should be original. But our economic strategies don’t have to be. Let’s copy that strategy,” he continued.

Salceda’s comments came after Senator Jinggoy Estrada, during a Senate hearing on the projected 2023 budget of the Film Development Council of the Philippines (FDCP), said he thought about banning K-dramas because Filipinos seem to love them more than locals.

As a result of K-dramas being aired in the Philippines, Estrada said Filipinos have admired and patronized Korean actors and idols – and asked what the FDCP is doing to get Filipinos to support local artists.

Estrada’s comments were met with outrage from internet users, many of whom are fans of Korean dramas and cultural professionals, who said that the local entertainment industry should improve its own offerings rather than criticizing those of its Asian counterpart.

But Salceda said he had been pressing the House leadership to look at the creatives industry more seriously as a source of money to fuel economic recovery in the country long before the subject of banning K-dramas arose.

He said this was one of the factors that led to the creation of a special committee on the creative economy.

“In March 2020, I recommended to the House leadership that we take seriously the creatives sector as a source of economic growth and recovery. It already represents 3% of global GDP, and could represent as much as 10% within the decade. So, there’s plenty of potential here,” he said.

The legislator went on to say that international cooperation on creative projects was another method to help the Philippines’ entertainment industry thrive, and that bans were usually counterproductive because people would only pay for high-quality content.

“And cultural exchange is important. K-pop borrows heavily from American and Swedish production companies. We should encourage our local creatives companies to work with international companies, to get a better sense of what the world demands and to upgrade our own capacities,” Salceda said.

“In almost all things, import bans don’t work. The world is willing to pay big money for good content. Let’s do better,” he added.

Seminar explores N. Korea’s media environment in 2022

“North Koreans today, in 2022, are using a greater variety of media devices than they were in the 2019 survey," said Daily NK's president Lee Kwang-baek during the event

By Seulkee Jang - 2022.10.21 6:52am

dailynk.com

A photo of the event, which was held on Oct. 18, 2022, at the Korea Press Center. (Daily NK)

Even after North Korea imposed tougher punishments for viewing and distributing foreign videos with its adoption of the anti-reactionary thought law in December 2020, South Korean television shows such as “Crash Landing on You,” “Penthouse” and “Squid Game” remain popular with North Koreans.

A survey has found that despite the authorities’ tighter grip on public media access, North Koreans continue to consume TV shows, movies and news produced in South Korea and other countries.

The Unification Media Group (UMG) held a seminar at the South Korean press center, in the Jung District of Seoul, on the afternoon of Oct. 18, about its fact-finding survey of North Korean consumption of foreign information and the North Korean media environment in 2022.

“We carried out this survey to learn more specifically what information North Koreans need, what information they’re currently consuming, and how they’re accessing it,” said Lee Kwang-baek, president of the UMG and Daily NK, during his opening remarks at the seminar.

“Since this survey was directly carried out on current residents of North Korea, we expect it will be of genuine assistance in ascertaining the media environment in North Korea,” he added.

Lee Sang-yong, vice president of Daily NK, presented the results of the fact-finding survey on the North Korean media environment in the first part of the day’s seminar.

“When North Koreans were asked in this survey whether they’ve heard about people being punished or been punished themselves [for media consumption] since the adoption of the anti-reactionary thought law, 88% of respondents said they have. Nevertheless, 96% also said that they’ve viewed videos from South Korea or other foreign countries,” Lee said.

“That shows that North Koreans’ desire for foreign information has not diminished even though the government’s controls on the public were considerably tightened by the adoption of the anti-reactionary thought law,” he added.

Lee Kwang-baek spoke during a discussion on press freedom and on the free consumption of information by North Koreans that was held in the second part of the seminar.

“North Koreans today, in 2022, are using a greater variety of media devices than they were in the 2019 survey. In particular, we found their use of USB flash drives and micro-SD cards has greatly increased. That shows that while the North Korean government is tightening its media policy, the North Korea media environment is changing and developing,” he said.

“Considering that 79% of North Korean survey respondents said they view foreign videos at least once a month, providing the North Korean public with diverse foreign media should help satisfy North Koreans’ demand for foreign information. We need to send information into North Korea more actively in the future,” Lee stressed.

“Punishment for consuming foreign content has become much tougher under Kim Jong Un, but the public’s desire for consuming foreign information has not decreased. We need strategic ways of reducing that risk by diversifying the distribution channels by which foreign information reaches North Koreans,” said Jieun Baek, a researcher on technology and human rights in North Korea at the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy at the Harvard Kennedy School. Baek participated in the discussion virtually from the US.

Along with providing various information to facilitate North Koreans’ free access to information from the wider world, Baek said, we also need to find creative ways to keep North Koreans from falling victim to punishment by the authorities.

Sokeel Park, South Korean country director for Liberty in North Korea (LINK), an NGO, also took part in the discussion.

“It’s important not only to share various information with North Koreans, but also to help them use that information safely. We need to support the development of ways to completely delete content after it’s been consumed and to prevent the authorities from tracking it,” he suggested.

Others voiced the need to boost broadcast signals for radio, a more traditional form of mass media.

“North Koreans’ usage of radio hasn’t noticeably increased, yet radio is the medium that continued to provide them with practical information despite COVID-19. Radio deserves greater attention, and greater investment,” said Martyn Williams, head of North Korea Tech, who also participated virtually from the US.

Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.

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De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Senior Advisor, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

V/R

David Maxwell

Senior Fellow

Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Phone: 202-573-8647

Personal Email: d avid.maxwell161@gmail.com

Web Site: www.fdd.org

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

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FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

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