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Why Economists Are Grateful for the Existence of Meteorologists
The bottom line is meteorologists make us look good!

We are the only two professions that can miss as often as we do and still have people want to listen to us. It has been noted that an economist is someone who explains tomorrow why the predictions they made yesterday did NOT come true today. What is prompting this little diatribe? If you were looking at the consensus forecasts for third quarter growth a couple of weeks ago you would have seen numbers suggesting a very anemic rate of perhaps .3% or .5%. This was coming after the two quarters of negative growth in Q1 (-1.6%) and Q2 (-0.6%). It seemed safe to assume that growth would be very subdued and that this was still showing an economy trending towards recession. Then we get the actual numbers and they were far more robust than anyone had been expecting - a growth rate of 2.6%. What explains this and what does this mean?

First a little explanation of the negative rates at the start of the year. There was an immediate assumption that two quarters of negative growth in a row was the definitive sign of a recession. In fact, this is really not all that definitive. The arbiter of all things recession is the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). As I have pointed out before, NBER will never tell you there is going to be a recession or even tell you that you are in one – they only tell you that there has been one. They do this by looking at a wide variety of variables  - everything from GDP performance to jobs, industrial production, capacity utilization and on and on. The fact is that many of these indicators are not pointing to a recession although some most definitely are.

The prime motivation for the decline at the start of the year was a drop in export demand. The US relies on exports for as much as 20% of its total GDP and the majority of the export activity is in high-value manufacturing. The US also sells a lot of food but the manufacturers are the mainstay. At the start of the year that volume dropped and for a few obvious reasons. The biggest buyers of US material were facing economic downturns of their own and demand decline. More importantly the value of the dollar surged as the Federal Reserve became the first major central bank to start an aggressive policy of rate hikes. The buyers of American machinery elected to wait a while before buying. Why wouldn’t they? Just as a consumer in the market for a new washer or dryer decides to wait until there is a “white sale”, the buyers of US manufactured output decided to wait for their own central banks to start hiking rates and allowing their own currencies to gain in value against the dollar.

So, here we are in Q3 and the dollar remains strong, but some of those other currencies have started to see some gains as well and the buyers of US output now see a better time to buy. The export sector has therefore seen some additional growth. Add in the expanded sale of food as the US has been making up for the decline in food production from Russia and Ukraine. Let us not forget the surge in oil and gas exports as the US has tried to help Europe weather the energy crisis with drastic expansion of diesel exports as well as LNG. To off this trade shift look at the reduced demand for imports in the US. The consumer has been slowing down somewhat and that affected levels of imports and after nearly a year of reshoring effort there has been a reduction in demand for imports by the manufacturing sector as well.

Does this all mean the US is now escaping the potential for a recession? Probably not – at least not entirely. The projections for GDP growth in 2023 have been calling for a rebound in activity as early as late in the second quarter and something approaching normal growth rates by the third or fourth quarter. That pace may be accelerated by the shift in trade patterns. If the US exports more and imports less the trade deficit is reduced and there is more opportunity for domestic growth. That means a reduced threat of layoffs and that mitigates the risk of a recession.

Dr. Chris Kuehl is an economist, as well as founder and managing director of Armada, while providing economic forecasts, industry analysis, corporate intelligence and market assessment for clients in a variety of industries.
The State of Collections
The pandemic brought a lot of changes to the workplace. Perhaps one most important is the improved communications pipeline between the credit department and customers. When businesses moved to the kitchen table, credit applications were updated with current contacts, phone numbers and emails. More than anytime in our lifetimes, we were in this together, so we talked. Not only did we know how our customers and their customers were doing, we knew how their family was holding up.
 
More than two years later, we are still communicating. Nowhere is this more evident than the collections arena. With inflation, talks of recession and the federal pandemic assistance drying up, how are customers holding up? Are customers starting to slow pay? How delinquent are accounts?
 
“We are seeing more accounts being sent to collections as a result of customers who are slower to pay,” said Ryan Frisbie with BARR Credit Services. “But we haven’t had this in so long, it is easy to forget this was once normal. Comparing payment trends to the last year or so isn’t the only measurement to look at. What did it look like before the pandemic?”
 
An example Frisbie used was slow pay. He has noticed companies that were paying in the 1-30 day window are now paying 30-60 days, which compared to payment trends before March 2020 is positive.
 
More importantly, he said, people are paying their bills. “I had a call with a client who was preparing to send two accounts to collections that were nearing 90 days past due. When we checked in a few days later, those two accounts had both unexpectedly paid in full. This wasn’t happening pre-pandemic, but it appears these relationships developed over the past couple of years are working the way they should.”
 
It isn’t all sunshine and roses, however. The cost of business is certainly increasing with decades high inflation, but other than giving credit departments pause, Frisbie noted that it certainly hasn’t caused major panic for any of the credit professionals he’s talked to recently.
 
“Credit departments are wondering if the light at the end of the tunnel is daylight or a training coming for them,” Frisbie said. “I know, though, for every negative thing someone is saying they are following up with comments that cashflow and profits have never been higher. We are in the sweet spot right now. Margins may be shrinking but there is money to be made and we are still moving in a positive direction.”
 
That’s important as 2023 planning ramps up. Frisbie recommends taking a closer look at your accounts receivables. Specifically:
 
  • Take a look at those 90-120 day accounts, especially if they are fewer than they have been in the past. Are these good paying customers with legitimate reasons for late payments? Or, are these accounts that need more pressure applied to get them to pay.
  • Do your due diligence and rely on credit basics when bringing new customers onboard.
  • Use the tools in front of you – especially if you are an ICE user. They will make you m ore efficient and provide important evidence for the decisions you are making.
  • Consider 1st party collection.
 
As the employment market tightens, Frisbie pointed to the increase of credit departments using 1st party collections to keep on top of delinquent accounts. “Outsourcing reminder letters and phone calls keeps a credit department on track,” he said. “It’s easy to let 30 days slide into 60 days. The money becomes more difficult to collect each day that goes by. But, partnering with someone you trust with your first party collections is just smart business.”
 
For more information about BARR Credit Services, visit BARRCredit.com or contact Ryan Frisbie at 520.274.2708.
Credit Congress 2023
NACM will blaze a trail into the great state of Texas to present its 127th Credit Congress & Exposition on June 11-14, 2023. We invite you to join us at the Gaylord Texan in Grapevine, all at once, rustic and sophisticated. Grapevine is settled between Dallas and Ft. Worth affording us the opportunity to experience the feel of today’s urban energy melding with the bucolic old west. Make plans to hit the trail with us in Texas! Early bird registration is open, so register now for the best pricing!
 
Again, this year each fully paid delegate is welcome to bring a colleague from the same company who has never attended Credit Congress before—for only $249!  Both delegates will be required to have individual sleeping rooms at the host hotel – The Gaylord Texan.
 
Plus, the NACM Heartland board of directors is once again offering two scholarships to qualified applicants. Download the application at https://bit.ly/3ThjrUD and submit no later than December 6.
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Calendar
NOVEMBER
11-7 Financial Statement Analysis 2: Credit & Risk Assessment
11-7 Certification Exam
11-7 Webinar: Cyberattack: A Different Perspective When It Happens to YOU!
11-7 Heartland Steel Credit Exchange
11-8 Webinar: An Advanced Look at the Lien and Bond Claim Process
11-10 Webinar: How Good Working Capital Management Can Boost Shareholder Value
11-11 NAR Great Lakes Credit Exchange
11-15 Webinar: Implementing a UCC Program: Overcoming Obstacles
11-29 Webinar: Implementing a Lien/Bond Claim Program: Overcoming Obstacles

DECEMBER
12-6 Webinar: Due Diligence When Selling to Minority Contractors
12-7 Webinar: Subchapter V of the Bankruptcy Code: Its Impact on Trade Creditors
12-15 NACM Heartland Construction Credit Group Meeting
12-15 NACM Heartland Board Meeting
JANUARY
1-2 Accounting Online Course - Winter 2023
1-20 Application Deadline for the March 6 Test Date
Visit our website for more information!